Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - Geopolitical risks pushed up crude oil prices. The main contract of US crude oil closed up 0.97% at $62.58 per barrel, and Brent crude oil rose 0.97% to $66.49 per barrel [3]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed. COMEX gold futures fell 0.14% to $3378.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 0.24% to $38.07 per ounce [4]. - Most London base metals declined. LME aluminum dropped 0.71% to $2588.50 per ton, LME zinc fell 0.39% to $2784.00 per ton, and LME copper decreased 0.22% to $9752.00 per ton [5]. - Domestic futures contracts closed mixed. Rapeseed meal and PX rose over 1%, while coking coal dropped over 2% [5]. - US agricultural futures: soybeans fell 0.24%, corn declined 0.20%, soybean oil rose 0.11%, soybean meal dropped 1.06%, and wheat decreased 0.84% [6]. 2. Important News Macro News - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury bond market - making support operations to enhance secondary - market liquidity [9]. - As of August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period [10]. - China supports efforts for peaceful crisis resolution and welcomes Russia - US dialogue on the Ukraine issue [10]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy effectiveness, stabilizing market expectations, and boosting domestic consumption [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that offset - printing paper futures will be launched on September 10, 2025, with specific trading rules [12]. - UBS lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast to $62 per barrel by the end of 2025 and March 2026 due to increased South American supply [14]. - A Russian refinery suspended production after a drone attack [15]. Metal Futures - A large recycled lead smelter in East China plans to halt production for a month, and a small one postponed restart [17]. - Indonesia will change its mining approval system from once every three years to once a year [17]. Black - Series Futures - Global iron ore shipments from August 11 - 17, 2025, totaled 34.066 million tons, up 3.599 million tons week - on - week [19]. - Steel inventories in 21 cities increased 2.3% in early August [21]. - Coking enterprises in Hebei and Shandong have more stringent production cuts than steel mills [21]. - Coke prices in Shandong are set to rise starting August 19 [21]. - Manganese ore inventories at major ports decreased by 23,000 tons [22]. - Premier Li Qiang stressed measures to stabilize the real - estate market [22]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased 34.5% month - on - month [25]. - South Africa's sugarcane production in 2025 is expected to reach 17.7 million tons, up 7.47% [25]. - Domestic soybean crushing volume reached 2.34 million tons in the week ending August 15 [25]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 15 increased 0.88% month - on - month [25]. - Palm oil commercial inventories in key regions rose 2.92% week - on - week as of August 15 [26]. - Brazil's second - season corn harvest rate in the central - southern region reached 94% as of last Thursday [26]. - US private exporters sold 124,000 tons of corn for the 2025/2026 season [27]. - US soybean export inspections in the week ending August 14 were 473,605 tons [29]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68% as of August 17 [29]. 3. Financial Markets Financial - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3700, driven by various types of funds [31]. - A - share market improvement led to increased brokerage account openings, with a 30% - 50% year - on - year increase [31]. - Multiple sources of incremental funds are flowing into the A - share market [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.37%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.65% [32]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange is researching a special voting channel for margin trading accounts [32]. - Tushare's service was interrupted due to a business dispute [32]. - Leapmotor achieved a net profit of 30 million yuan in H1 and raised its sales target [32]. Industry - The State Administration of Radio and Television will improve content supply in the broadcasting and TV sector [33]. - In July, the average price of second - hand homes in 100 cities dropped 0.77% month - on - month [33]. - Auto dealers faced losses in H1 2025, with a less optimistic outlook [35]. - 49 models from 13 auto companies met data - security requirements [36]. - China's smartphone market shipments declined 4.1% in Q2 2025 [36]. - The 2025 movie summer - vacation box office exceeded 10 billion yuan [36]. - The food cold - chain logistics demand reached 192 million tons in H1 2025, up 4.35% [36]. Overseas - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium is awaited, with different expectations for Powell's speech [37]. - India plans a tax reform in response to potential US tariffs [37]. - Germany requires the US to lower auto tariffs for a broader trade deal [39]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.08%, S&P 500 down 0.01%, and Nasdaq up 0.03% [40]. - European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.18%, France's CAC40 down 0.5%, and UK's FTSE 100 up 0.21% [40]. - Japan's stock market continued to rise, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.77% [40]. - Some Chinese concept stocks may be involved in "pump - and - dump" schemes [41]. - Douyu's Q2 revenue reached 1.054 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [42]. Commodities - Multiple futures and options will be launched on September 10, 2025 [44]. - Geopolitical risks drove up international oil prices [44]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed [44]. - London base metals mostly declined [44]. Bonds - Bond yields in China generally rose, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [45]. - The trading association is investigating misappropriation of debt - financing funds [45]. - The central treasury cash - management deposit auction had a winning amount of 120 billion yuan at a 1.78% rate [47]. - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury - bond market - making support operations on August 19 [48]. - US Treasury yields mostly increased [48]. Foreign Exchange - China and Thailand renewed a currency - swap agreement [49]. - The on - shore RMB strengthened against the US dollar on Monday [50]. - The US dollar index rose 0.31% in New York trading [50]. 4. Upcoming Events - Key economic data releases include euro - zone June current account, Canada's July CPI, etc. [53] - Multiple events are scheduled for August 19, including central - bank operations, conferences, and corporate earnings announcements [55]

Report Summary Reported Industries - The report focuses on the copper and urea industries [7][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, after the release of US CPI data, the market increased expectations for a Fed rate cut, with the probability of a rate cut exceeding 90%. However, the soaring US PPI data on Thursday reduced the possibility of an unexpected rate cut, and the US dollar index rebounded accordingly. Domestically, nine departments including the Ministry of Finance jointly implemented a "discount interest" policy for service - industry loans to reduce financing costs and stimulate consumption. The economic data in July was weaker than before, and the central bank stated that it would implement a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - In terms of supply, the port inventory of refined copper ore has declined to the lowest level in the past five years. The collapse of the El Teniente copper mine in southern Chile led to a short - term reduction in global supply. The TC/RC fees of smelters continued to stabilize and rebound. Long - term contract orders were profitable, while spot orders were still at a loss. The sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. Only one smelter had a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - production smelter in East China started production. It is expected that the refined copper output will not fluctuate significantly, but smelters may cut or stop production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory [4]. - Regarding demand, downstream demand was lukewarm. Although new orders increased, market trading volume decreased month - on - month. The real estate sector still dragged down downstream demand, with real estate development investment from January to July decreasing by 12% year - on - year and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreasing by 4% year - on - year. However, the power grid and new energy sectors brought demand resilience. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased this week, reflecting weak short - term demand and a pattern of loose supply and demand [4]. - Overall, last week, the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut boosted the Shanghai copper price. After the PPI data exceeded expectations on Thursday, the Shanghai copper price first rose and then fell, but the overall center of gravity maintained an upward trend. Due to the expected tight supply and the impact of the Chilean copper mine incident, and with the demand side in the off - season, downstream operations remained stable with a downward trend, and the market trading sentiment was lukewarm. The Shanghai copper price maintained a range - bound pattern. A Fed rate cut in September has been confirmed, and an unexpected rate cut should be watched out for [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - On August 12, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the US CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. The core CPI in July rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%, reaching a new high since February. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeded 90%. - On August 14, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the PPI in July soared to 3.3% year - on - year, the highest level since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%; it rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase since June 2022, cooling the Fed rate - cut expectation [10]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper showed an overall oscillatory and strengthening trend. The highest price of the week was 79,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 78,410 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 1.4%, and the range increase was 0.73% [14]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of August 18, the average spot premium in East China was 200 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 40 yuan/ton. The market supply was tight, and with more domestic smelter maintenance, the spot premium strengthened. It is expected that the premium will face pressure after the arrival of imported goods next month [21]. 3.4 LME Copper Price and Inventory - As of August 18, the weekly change rate of LME copper was +0.31%, closing at $9,730/ton. The LME copper spot discount continued to weaken, and the LME copper inventory continued to increase, with sufficient deliverable goods in the market [27]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - According to customs data, in July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. As of August 15, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 Chinese ports was 422,000 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons from the previous week. - The El Teniente copper mine of Codelco in Chile had a mine collapse on July 31, and the smelter restarted on August 13 [32]. 3.6 Smelter Fees - As of August 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) in China was -$37.65/ton, and the RC fee was -3.76 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. The TC/RC of the long - term contract negotiation result was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound. Long - term contract orders were profitable, while spot orders were still at a loss. The sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. Factory seasonal maintenance plans in September and October will still lead to production reduction [36]. 3.7 Refined Copper Supply - In July, SMM's electrolytic copper output in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 7.7673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.82%. With the gradual recovery of previously maintained smelters, only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - production smelter in East China started production. It is expected that the output will not fluctuate significantly. In the later third quarter, production may be cut or stopped due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory. - In July, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 480,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative imports were 3.113 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [40]. 3.8 Scrap Copper Supply - In June 2025, scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, with a relatively high year - on - year import volume and higher than market expectations. - As the price difference between refined and scrap copper increased, the substitution advantage of scrap copper decreased, and the scrap copper utilization rate of smelters decreased [46]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a historically high level. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. It is estimated that China's refined copper consumption will increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026. - Downstream demand was lukewarm. Although new orders increased, market trading volume decreased month - on - month. However, the power grid and new energy markets were resilient, providing price support [50]. 3.10 Copper Products - According to Ganglian data, in July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. The start - up rate was lower than expected. Downstream cable procurement was cautious, the processing fee of copper rods was under pressure, and some refined copper rod enterprises cut production unexpectedly. Currently, the operating load is at a historically low level, and the reduction in August is expected to be limited. - The operating load of copper tube enterprises remained basically stable, showing a slight downward trend. Some manufacturers planned to increase production due to concerns about future supply shortages. Market demand was weak, and there was also phased replenishment [55]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - According to data from the National Energy Administration, from January to June, the investment in power grid projects was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, reaching a record high for the same period. From January to June, the investment in power source projects was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% year - on - year respectively. The power grid project is still a rigid demand for copper, supporting the copper price [59]. 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year - on - year. From January to July, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 515.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%, 0.5 percentage points wider than that from January to June; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 4,956.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%, 0.5 percentage points wider than that from January to June [64]. 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - From August 1 - 10, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 262,000, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 6%, with a penetration rate of 57.9%. As of now, the cumulative retail sales this year were 6.717 million, a year - on - year increase of 28% [70]. 3.14 Global Copper Inventory in Major Exchanges - After the end of the copper siphon effect and a large increase in LME copper inventory, the inventory increase rate has recently slowed down. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03% and a month - on - month increase of 28.76%. The increase rate of COMEX inventory also gradually slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 267,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.16% and a month - on - month increase of 11.59% [76]. - On August 14, the cumulative spot inventory of copper in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 86,800 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons compared with July 7 and an increase of 5,300 tons compared with August 11. The bonded area inventory continued to increase. During the week, the exported goods of smelters continued to arrive and be stored in the warehouse. Although some goods in individual warehouses were cleared and imported into the country, the overall inbound volume was greater than the outbound volume, resulting in an increase in inventory. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained in a low - level oscillation and has not increased significantly yet, but it increased by 3,288 tons compared with the previous week, still showing a pattern of weak downstream demand and loose supply [81].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, the urea futures market showed a trend of first decline and then rise, with an overall increase. The spot market had a slow start in the first half - week, and the upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders. In the second half - week, the factory orders were sufficient, and the prices stabilized. The overall market trading sentiment was lukewarm. - The supply of urea increased last week, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to rise next week. The high inventory level in recent five years restricts the upward space of urea prices. - The domestic demand is in a slack period, but the industrial demand has resilience, and the export to India and the Indian tender price provide support. The urea price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term with no obvious boost [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half - week, the domestic demand in the urea spot market was weak, and the upstream factories lowered their quotes. The situation of attracting orders at low prices was acceptable. In the second half - week, the factories had sufficient pending orders, and the quotes were stable. The market trading sentiment was lukewarm. Since the weekend, the upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders, but the market activity was low [3]. b) Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures first declined and then rose, with an overall increase. As of August 11, the main September contract of urea closed at 1,722 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the settlement price on August 4. The trading volume last week was 1,025.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 479.45 million tons; the open interest was 614.14 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.92 million tons. Currently, the futures price fluctuates between 1,700 - 1,790 yuan/ton. - Last week, the increase of urea futures was stronger than that of the spot, and the basis weakened. As of August 18, the basis of the 01 contract was - 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton. - On August 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,573, a week - on - week decrease of 50 [6][8]. c) Urea Supply - side - Last week, the weekly output of urea increased. From August 7 - 13, the weekly output of urea was 1.3486 million tons, an increase of 20,100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The average daily output was 192,700 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons week - on - week. Among them, the coal - based weekly output was 1.059 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.22%; the gas - based weekly output was 289,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99%. The output of small and medium - sized particles increased by 4.00% week - on - week, and the output of large - sized particles decreased by 8.50% week - on - week. - Next week, it is expected that 1 - 2 enterprises plan to stop production, and 3 - 5 enterprises will resume production. As of August 18, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 194,200 tons, and the operating rate was 82.69%. - In the raw material market, the coal supply was tight, which boosted the coal price. As of August 18, the quotation of Qinhuangdao steam - coal Q5500 was 697 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 17 yuan/ton; the price of anthracite washed small pieces in Jincheng market remained flat at 900 yuan/ton. The price of domestic liquefied natural gas decreased last week. As of August 18, the benchmark price was 4,040 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4%. - Last week, the price of synthetic ammonia decreased. As of August 15, the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,180 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of urea decreased last week. The price difference between synthetic ammonia and urea in Shandong was 480 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price of methanol increased. As of August 15, the quotation of methanol was 2,390 yuan/ton, and the price difference between methanol and urea was 690 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 55 yuan/ton [12][14][15]. d) Urea Demand - side - Last week, the price of compound fertilizer remained flat. As of August 15, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 2,950 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. Currently, compound fertilizer factories are in the initial stage of autumn fertilizer production, and the operating load has continued to rise to the high level of the same period in history. The finished product inventory in the factory has been at a high level for several months. During the initial stage of autumn compound fertilizer production, there is no pressure for compound fertilizer factories to purchase raw materials. From August 8 - 14, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 43.48%, an increase of 1.98 percentage points from the previous week, and 3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. - From August 8 - 14, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 49.82%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points from the previous period, and 17.82 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of melamine decreased, summer maintenance started, and there are still maintenance plans in the future. The terminal panel furniture market is sluggish, affected by the real estate industry. - As of August 15, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, an increase of 69,800 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 7.86%, and 520,200 tons higher than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous week [17][19]. e) International Market - After China started urea exports, the tight supply situation in the international urea market began to ease. Currently, the inventory in India is still low, and it is expected to start another import tender around September. The tender demand from India provides support for the global urea market. It is expected that China's exports will end in October, and Brazil's imports are expected to resume in September. - India's NFL issued a new round of urea import tender, targeting to purchase 2 million tons (1 million tons each for the east and west coasts). The bid closing date is September 2, the bid validity period is September 10, and the shipping date is October 31. - As of August 15, the FOB price of small - sized Chinese urea was 450 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - sized Chinese urea was 460 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.5 US dollars/ton. The prices of other regions also showed different degrees of decline [20][21][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints -沪铜维持区间震荡，需警惕九月美联储超预期降息 [9] -碳酸锂价格短期高位震荡 [11] -原油供需转弱，价格预计承压下行，建议逢高做空 [12] -沥青以偏弱震荡为主 [14] - PP预计近期震荡运行，建议09 - 01反套止盈离场 [15] -塑料预计近期震荡运行，建议09 - 01反套止盈离场 [17] - PVC预计震荡下行，09 - 01反套止盈离场 [19] -焦煤近期高位震荡为主 [20] -尿素短期维持震荡区间波动，行情震荡 [22] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview -截至8月18日收盘，国内期货主力合约有涨有跌，碳酸锂涨超4%，焦煤、鸡蛋跌超2%；沪深300、上证50、中证500、中证1000股指期货主力合约上涨，2年、5年、10年、30年期国债期货主力合约下跌 [6] -截至08月18日15:40，中证1000 2509、沪深300 2509、上证50 2509资金流入，中证500 2509、三十年国债2509、沪金2510资金流出 [7] Specific Futures Analysis Copper -今日沪铜高开低走，午后下挫；供应端精铜矿港口库存低，智利铜矿坍塌致供应短期减少，冶炼厂利润受硫酸价支撑，预计精铜产量波动不大，后期或减产；需求端下游需求不温不火，房地产拖累但电网及新能源带来韧性，上期所库存累库；整体沪铜维持区间震荡 [9] Lithium Carbonate -今日碳酸锂高开高走涨幅近5%，受青海某锂盐企业停产消息刺激，供应端干扰引发产量偏紧预期，成本端支撑价格，需求端拿货情绪增加，短期价格高位震荡 [10][11] Crude Oil -原油处于季节性出行旺季尾声，油品库存增加，OPEC + 9月增产，沙特上调售价，美国经济数据引发担忧，EIA和IEA上调过剩幅度，预计价格承压下行 [12] Asphalt -供应端开工率回升但仍偏低，8月排产环比减少同比增加；需求端下游开工率多数上涨但受资金和天气制约，出货量减少，库存上升但仍处低位；成本端原油下行压力大，预计偏弱震荡 [14] PP -下游开工率回升但处偏低水平，企业开工率上涨，标品拉丝生产比例下降，石化库存偏高；成本端原油价格下跌，供应新增产能计划投产，需求弱库存压力大，预计震荡运行 [15] Plastic -开工率下跌至中性水平，下游开工率上升但仍处偏低位，石化库存偏高；成本端原油价格下跌，供应新增产能投产，需求淡季库存压力大，农膜备货或有提振，预计震荡运行 [17] PVC -上游电石价格下跌，供应端开工率增加，下游开工率减少采购谨慎，出口预期减弱，社会库存增加，房地产仍在调整，新增产能投产，预计震荡下行 [18][19] Coking Coal -今日高开高走午后下挫，现货价格有降有平，供给增加，下游焦炭产量增加但铁水产量下降，钢厂盈利走弱，关注提涨及开工情况，近期高位震荡 [20] Urea -今日盘面高开低走震荡偏强，工厂产量窄幅波动，需求端复合肥开工回升但暂无拿货压力，三聚氰胺开工降低且有检修计划，库存累库，预计短期震荡 [21][22]

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.04% at $3381.70 per ounce, down 3.14% for the week, and COMEX silver futures down 0.13% at $38.02 per ounce, down 1.35% for the week [2] - Oil prices were under pressure due to looser supply - demand and fading geopolitical premiums. The U.S. crude oil main contract fell 1.28% to $63.14 per barrel, down 1.16% for the week; Brent crude oil main contract fell 1.06% to $66.13 per barrel, down 0.69% for the week [2] - Most London base metals declined, with LME zinc down 1.83%, down 1.08% for the week; LME aluminum down 0.63%, down 0.23% for the week; LME lead down 0.43%, down 1.32% for the week; LME copper down 0.06%, down 0.02% for the week; LME tin up 0.44%, down 0.04% for the week; LME nickel up 1.09%, up 0.26% for the week [2] - As of the close at 23:00 on the 15th, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Palm oil and coking coal rose more than 2%, and coke, glass, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose more than 1%. Methanol, soda ash, and ethylene glycol fell slightly [3] 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - In July, consumer prices showed positive changes, with the month - on - month change turning from decline to increase, and the year - on - year increase of core CPI continuously expanding. The national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend, with industrial added value, service production index, and social consumer goods retail sales growing year - on - year [5] - An analyst expects the central bank to continue injecting medium - term liquidity through MLF and outright reverse repurchases in August and may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates around the beginning of the fourth quarter [5] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain adequate liquidity, and match the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level targets [5] - Trump will determine tariffs on steel and chips in the next one or two weeks, with potential rates of 200% or 300% [6] Energy and Chemical Futures - The CSRC approved the registration of offset printing paper futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and pulp options [8][10] - The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association emphasized controlling production capacity and output and balancing domestic and international markets in the second half of the year [10] - In the 33rd week (August 9 - 15), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.339 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.75%, 30,500 tons lower than expected [10] Metal Futures - The quotes of first - tier photovoltaic module enterprises reached $0.7 per watt, and there was a shortage of 710W large - format modules. The market price of polysilicon increased, and costs decreased [12] - Many photovoltaic enterprises were notified to participate in a symposium on August 19 [13] - Last week, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and nickel inventories on the SHFE increased, while tin inventory decreased [14] - There were rumors about polysilicon production and sales restrictions, but a head of a silicon material enterprise did not confirm the information [15] - An analyst believes there will be reasons to cut interest rates several times this year due to a softening job market and still - high inflation [15] Black - Series Futures - Some steel enterprises in Tangshan will stop production from August 20 to September 6 due to environmental protection [17] - In July, China's steel output increased year - on - year, while crude steel output decreased. Real estate development investment and construction area declined [17] - Iron ore inventories at ports increased, and the number of ships in port decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, while daily hot metal output increased [17][19] - A steel company in Liaoning will conduct a 20 - day maintenance on a blast furnace, affecting daily hot metal output by about 15,000 tons [20] - China sued Canada at the WTO for its import restrictions on steel products [20] - In late July, the output of key coal enterprises decreased. The total inventory of steel in cities increased this week [20][21] - The U.S. expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports [22] Agricultural Product Futures - The breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs decreased, while the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding increased [24] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased compared to the same period last month [26] - The inventory of imported cotton at main ports decreased [27] - In the second half of July, Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume and sugar output decreased year - on - year [27] 3. Financial Market Finance - As the market strengthened, the number of doubled stocks in A - shares increased. There were 310 stocks with a gain of over 100% this year, and the number of low - price stocks decreased [29] - CITIC Securities recommended focusing on five strong industries: innovative drugs, resources, communications, military, and games, and corresponding ETFs [29] - Some funds established during the previous bull market have recovered, but there is a significant performance gap among them [29][31] - The performance of private stock funds has recovered, but some subjective private stock funds are facing redemptions [31] - The performance of public FOFs has improved, with most achieving positive returns this year [31] - Some well - known private fund managers have adjusted their positions. 22 out of 25 North Exchange listed companies achieved year - on - year revenue growth in the first half of 2025 [32] - China Shenhua will resume trading on August 18 and plans a large - scale asset integration [32][34] Industry - The 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games ended successfully, and the World Humanoid Robot Sports Federation was established [35] - 8 out of 13 wealth management companies saw an increase in the scale of their wealth management products in the first half of 2025, with one having a 64.83% increase [35] - Chongqing added 300 million yuan for automobile replacement subsidies in the third quarter. Hainan released a three - year action plan for high - quality development of marine tourism [35][36] - Wuhan suspended its automobile replacement policy on August 19. A compressed air energy storage technology was successfully verified in Hunan [36][38] - A large - scale shale gas field in Chongqing was confirmed, and the express delivery industry in China has developed rapidly this year [38][39] Overseas - The U.S. and Russia's leaders' meeting made progress, and Trump shifted his stance on the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The EU is preparing the 19th round of sanctions against Russia [40] - The U.S. trade negotiation representative canceled a trip to India, and the EU plans to mobilize citizens' bank deposits for investment [41] International Stock Market - Citi recommended an overweight position in stocks (especially U.S. and to some extent European stocks), an underweight position in UK stocks, a neutral position in government bonds, an overweight position in emerging - market bonds, an underweight position in Japanese government bonds, an underweight position in European and U.S. investment - grade credit, a neutral position in commodities, shorting the U.S. dollar, and going long on the euro and some emerging - market currencies [42] Commodity - Hong Kong is promoting the construction of a commodity trading ecosystem and aims to become an international gold trading center [43] Bond - The first four company bonds were re - issued on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and more companies are preparing for bond re - issuance [44] 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events Economic Data - Upcoming economic data include the UK's August Rightmove average house asking price index, Japan's June tertiary industry activity index, Switzerland's second - quarter industrial output, etc. [47] Events - The People's Bank of China has 112 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. The 2025 Global Smart Education Conference will be held from August 18 - 20. The expanded U.S. tariff list on steel and aluminum imports takes effect on August 18. Earnings reports of some companies will be released [49]

Hot News - In July, CPI showed positive changes, with the month-on-month change turning from decline to increase, and the year-on-year increase of core CPI expanding continuously [1] - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, the national service production index increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a stable and progressive development of the national economy [1] - In August, the central bank will continue to inject medium-term liquidity through MLF and outright reverse repurchase, and may implement another RRR cut and interest rate cut around the beginning of the fourth quarter [1] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain adequate liquidity, and ensure that the growth of social financing scale and money supply matches the economic growth and price level targets [2] - Trump plans to determine the tariffs on steel and chips in the next one or two weeks, with a possible tax rate of 200% or 300% [2] Key Focus - The sectors to focus on are coking coal, palm oil, methanol, soda ash, and glass [3] Night Session Performance - The night session performance shows that the non-metallic building materials sector rose 2.89%, the precious metals sector rose 26.74%, the oilseeds sector rose 12.96%, the non-ferrous metals sector rose 21.30%, the soft commodities sector rose 2.47%, the coal, coke, and steel ore sector rose 14.70%, the energy sector rose 3.35%, the chemical sector rose 11.55%, the grain sector rose 1.17%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector rose 2.87% [3] Sector Positions - The data shows the changes in the positions of various commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83% daily, 3.46% monthly, and 10.29% annually; the S&P 500 fell 0.29% daily, rose 1.74% monthly, and rose 9.66% annually; the Hang Seng Index fell 0.98% daily, rose 2.01% monthly, and rose 25.97% annually [5] - In the fixed-income market, the 10-year Treasury bond futures fell 0.05% daily, 0.18% monthly, and 0.58% annually; the 5-year Treasury bond futures fell 0.02% daily, 0.06% monthly, and 0.83% annually [5] - In the commodity market, WTI crude oil fell 1.24% daily, 8.74% monthly, and 12.17% annually; London spot gold rose 0.01% daily, 1.39% monthly, and 27.10% annually [5] - Other assets include the US dollar index, which fell 0.36% daily, 2.20% monthly, and 9.80% annually; the CBOE Volatility Index rose 1.75% daily, fell 9.75% monthly, and fell 13.03% annually [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomic factors show the US PPI rising significantly, while the supply of copper concentrates is increasing, and the demand is weak. The copper price remains in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for market drivers [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to the production reduction of CATL, the supply is expected to shrink, and the demand is in a small peak season. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8][9]. - **Crude Oil**: Entering the end of the seasonal travel peak, the inventory of oil products is increasing. OPEC + plans to increase production in September, and the possibility of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine is rising. The medium - and long - term downward pressure on crude oil prices is increasing, and the short - term volatility is large [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, the demand is restricted by funds and weather, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to close short positions temporarily [11][12]. - **PP**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is about to enter the peak season. It is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - **Plastic**: The supply is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory pressure is large. It is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - **PVC**: The supply is increasing, the demand is not improved, and the inventory is high. It is expected to fluctuate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - **Coking Coal**: After continuous price increases, the market sentiment cools down, and the price fluctuates at a high level [18]. - **Urea**: The demand is weak, the supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term trend is weak consolidation [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of August 15, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Rapeseed meal dropped by over 3%, methanol and rapeseed oil by nearly 2%, and many others by over 1%. Polysilicon rose by over 4%, lithium carbonate by over 2%, and some others by over 1%. Stock index futures generally rose, while most treasury bond futures declined [4]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:07 on August 15, funds flowed into contracts such as CSI 1000 2509 and CSI 500 2509, and flowed out of contracts such as Shanghai Silver 2510 and Shanghai Gold 2510 [4]. Core Commodity Analysis Copper - **Macro**: The US PPI in July rose significantly, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, both exceeding expectations [7]. - **Supply**: The Indonesian smelter's maintenance was extended, and China's copper concentrate imports in July increased by 18.24% year - on - year and 8.94% month - on - month. The TC/RC fees continued to rise, and the production enthusiasm of smelters was fair [7]. - **Demand**: Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the downstream demand was weak, and the terminal power grid performed well, while the real estate sector was a drag. The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange did not show a significant increase, supporting the domestic copper price [7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: CATL's mining end in Jianxiawo stopped production on August 10, with no short - term resumption plan. The monthly output of this mine accounted for 9% - 10% of the domestic lithium carbonate output, and the supply was expected to shrink [8]. - **Demand**: The demand in the power sector recovered with the return of subsidies, and the trading enthusiasm of traders increased [8][9]. Crude Oil - **Inventory**: The EIA data showed that the inventory of crude oil and diesel increased, and the gasoline inventory decreased slightly [10]. - **Supply**: OPEC + plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and the possibility of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine is rising, increasing the medium - and long - term downward pressure on prices [10]. - **Price**: Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia in September [10]. Asphalt - **Supply**: The weekly asphalt production rate increased by 1.2 percentage points to 32.9%, and the expected production in August decreased by 5.1% month - on - month and increased by 17.1% year - on - year [11]. - **Demand**: The downstream production rates mostly increased, but the demand was restricted by funds and weather. The national shipment volume decreased by 11.34% week - on - week [11][12]. - **Inventory**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly but remained at a low level in the same period in recent years [12]. PP - **Supply**: The production rate of PP enterprises decreased to about 83.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawstring decreased to about 28.5%. New capacity is planned to be put into production in August, and the number of maintenance devices has increased slightly [13]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand was weak, and the new orders were limited. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid needs, but the production rate of plastic weaving increased slightly [13]. Plastic - **Supply**: The plastic production rate dropped to about 87%, and new capacity was put into operation. The production rate decreased slightly recently [14][15]. - **Demand**: The downstream production rate increased slightly, but the agricultural film was still in the off - season, and the new orders decreased. The demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory pressure was large [14][15]. PVC - **Supply**: The PVC production rate increased to 80.33%, and new capacity was put into production in August, with more planned in the future [16]. - **Demand**: The downstream production rate decreased slightly, and the demand was not improved. The real estate sector was still in the adjustment stage [16]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory continued to increase, and the inventory pressure was large [16]. Coking Coal - **Price**: The price in the Shanxi market remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 coking coal decreased by 44 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply**: The supply data increased, the production of clean coal and raw coal increased, and the inventory of mine clean coal decreased [18]. - **Demand**: The profit of independent coking enterprises turned positive, the production of downstream coke increased, and the inventory decreased. However, the iron - making water production decreased, and the profitability of steel mills weakened [18]. Urea - **Supply**: Next week, many urea enterprises will conduct inspections, and the supply is expected to decrease [19]. - **Demand**: The production rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased slightly, but the production rate of melamine decreased significantly, dragging down the domestic demand for urea [19]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory increased, mainly due to the weak demand after the end of agricultural demand [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View In July 2025, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, the national economy maintained a steady - advancing development trend, with sustained growth in production and demand, overall stable employment and prices, the cultivation and expansion of new - quality productive forces, and new achievements in high - quality development [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry - In July, the national above - scale industrial added value increased by 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the enterprise production and operation activity expectation index was 52.6%. From January to June, the total profit of above - scale industrial enterprises was 34365 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [3]. Service - In July, the national service industry production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year. From January to July, it increased by 5.9% year - on - year. The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, and the service industry business activity expectation index was 56.6%. Some industries were in the high - level boom range [4]. Consumption - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 38780 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 284238 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The national online retail sales were 86835 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. The service retail sales from January to July increased by 5.2% year - on - year [5]. Investment - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288229 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 5.3%. Infrastructure investment increased by 3.2%, manufacturing investment increased by 6.2%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% [6]. Import and Export - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 39102 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 256969 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports increased by 7.3%, and imports decreased by 1.6% [7]. Price - In July, the national consumer price (CPI) was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [8]. Employment - From January to July, the average national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%. In July, it was 5.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and the same as the same month last year [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The listing of platinum and palladium futures and options meets the hard - demand of China's platinum and palladium industry, and is significant for the futures market to serve China's green development strategy and improve the global pricing mechanism of platinum and palladium [2]. - The price curves of platinum and palladium reflect the comprehensive game of automobile technology iteration, supply shocks, and macro - sentiment. The future price difference between them depends on fuel cell penetration, mine supply recovery speed, and the expansion rhythm of the recycling system [66][71]. - Gold acts as a "ballast stone" in asset allocation, while platinum is a high - elasticity gaming chip for the automotive industry and hydrogen economy [74]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Platinum and Palladium Concept and Industry Chain Overview - **Concept and Characteristics** - Platinum is a silver - white, high - density, ductile, and chemically stable precious metal with high melting and boiling points, excellent catalytic performance, and strong corrosion resistance. It is used in electronics, automotive catalysts, jewelry, etc. [6][10] - Palladium is also a platinum - group metal, with lower density than platinum, excellent ductility, and chemical stability. It has unique strong hydrogen - absorption ability and is mainly used in automotive catalysts (especially for gasoline vehicles), electronics, etc. [11][14] - **Industry Chain Characteristics** - Supply: Platinum has an Russia - South Africa duopoly supply pattern, while palladium is dominated by South Africa. Platinum mining has high costs due to deep - mining, while palladium is a by - product of nickel mining with lower costs [20]. - Demand: Platinum has rigid jewelry demand in the Asian market, so its demand elasticity is low. Palladium has no substitutes in automotive catalysts, so its demand elasticity is high [20]. - Pain Points: The industry chain faces problems such as single - origin supply risk, low demand elasticity for platinum in jewelry, and high demand elasticity and low secondary - supply recovery rate for palladium [20]. - **Industry Chain Structure** - Upstream: It is mainly the supply of primary minerals from South Africa, Russia, etc. The key challenges include high - cost mining, ESG risks, and geopolitical issues [23]. - Mid - stream: It involves refining and processing, using complex hydrometallurgy. Core participants include mining giants' refineries, professional refiners, traders, and banks [25]. - Downstream: It is the manufacturing and distribution of products, with applications in automotive catalysts, jewelry, MLCCs, etc. Key manufacturers come from different industries [27]. - Recycling: Secondary supply mainly comes from waste automotive catalysts, electronic waste, etc., accounting for about 25% of platinum supply and 30% of palladium supply [34]. 2. Platinum and Palladium Supply - Demand Conditions - **Supply - side Factors** - Mineral Supply: It is highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia. Supply is affected by factors such as the COVID - 19 pandemic, power crises, and geopolitical issues, leading to significant fluctuations [37]. - Recycling Supply: It accounts for an increasing proportion, buffering supply - side fluctuations. However, the recycling volume is affected by precious - metal price fluctuations [38]. - **Demand - side Factors** - Automotive Catalysts: Palladium is the core material for gasoline - vehicle exhaust catalysts, accounting for 84% of global palladium demand in 2023. Platinum is mainly used in diesel - vehicle catalysts, with a 45% demand share in 2023. There is a substitution effect between them, but short - term substitution is limited [42]. - Industrial and Investment Demand: China is the largest platinum - demand country, using it for jewelry, chemical catalysts, and the hydrogen - energy industry. Europe is the largest palladium - demand country, with strong demand in the automotive industry. Emerging fields such as hydrogen fuel cells and 5G electronics are long - term demand growth points [43]. - **Inventory - side Factors** - Global platinum and palladium reserves have shown a trend of "first decline, then rise, and then stability" in the past 30 years. The sharp increase in 2024 is due to resource re - evaluation and large - scale resource upgrades in South Africa and Zimbabwe [48]. - **Import - Export Factors** - China's platinum - group metal resources are scarce, and the industry depends on imports. Import and export are affected by geopolitical, policy, and production - capacity factors. China encourages recycling technology R & D and hydrogen - energy industry investment to reduce import risks [51]. - Seasonal Patterns: Platinum imports peak from November to January and in September - October, and are low in February. Palladium imports peak from December to February and may have small peaks in July - August [54]. 3. Platinum and Palladium Spot and Futures Market Prices - **Futures Market Prices** - From 2011 to 2025, the futures prices of platinum and palladium can be divided into three stages. The price difference between them is mainly affected by automotive technology changes, supply - demand imbalances, and economic expectations [66]. - **Spot Market Prices** - From 2007 to 2025, the spot prices of platinum and palladium can also be divided into three stages. The price difference is mainly due to the "technology change" in automotive catalysts and the development of the recycling system [70]. - **Platinum - Gold Price Comparison** - In terms of price, gold is rarely surpassed by platinum. In terms of trend rhythm, gold shows a "step - by - step slow - bull" trend, while platinum has large fluctuations. In terms of divergence, the gold - platinum price ratio has reached a historical extreme, reflecting the dual discount of platinum [73][74]. 4. Platinum and Palladium Futures and Options Introduction - **Futures Contracts** - Platinum and palladium futures contracts have a trading unit of 1000 grams/hand, a minimum price change of 0.05 yuan/gram, a daily price limit of 4%, and a minimum margin of 5%. They use physical delivery, and the delivery months are February, April, June, August, October, and December [78]. - **Options Contracts** - Platinum and palladium options contracts are based on their respective futures contracts. They have a trading unit of 1 hand (1000 grams) of the underlying futures contract, a minimum price change of 0.05 yuan/gram, and an American - style exercise method [100].