Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first quarter, there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point. It is recommended to continue to focus on the idea of buying after a decline, but the upside space will also be restricted by downstream demand. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state, and it is prone to a low - level rebound in the overall rhythm. Pay attention to the sentiment change due to recent macro news [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 21, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 43.83 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.78%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 23.83 million tons, a slight increase of 0.05 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 145.75 million tons, an increase of 2.22 million tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.36 million tons, while that in South China increased by 3.58 million tons. The port inventory slightly accumulated this week, with 19.80 million tons of visible foreign vessels unloaded during the period, and two vessels still being unloaded not yet counted. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38%. The MTO plant of Zhejiang Xingxing entered a shutdown state, and some enterprises were still operating at reduced loads, causing the industry's operating rate to continue to decline passively [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study, formulate and introduce an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030. Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest subsidy policy for small, medium and micro enterprises, set up a special guarantee plan quota of 500 billion yuan for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumption loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures rebounded intraday, and the 60 - day moving average at the daily - line level provided effective support. There is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. Continue to focus on the idea of buying after a decline, but the upside space will be restricted by downstream demand. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state and is prone to a low - level rebound. Pay attention to the sentiment change due to recent macro news [3]

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：溢价回落，注意支撑 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 22 日 棉花国内棉花丰产预期兑现，供应持续宽松，下游棉纱市场平稳运行，棉纱 品种延续分化，纺纱利润被压缩，纺企补库心态谨慎。全球产量以及期末库存均 处于近五年高位；部分主要出口国家销售进度持续偏慢；国内对于新年度供应题 材炒作热度暂告段落，盘面回落，一定程度拖累外盘表现。下方空间相对有限， 短期偏调整看待为主。 白糖：12 月下半月，巴西中南部地区甘蔗入榨量为 217.1 万吨，较去年同 期的 171.4 万吨增加 45.7 万吨，同比增幅 26.60%；甘蔗 ATR 为 127.49kg/吨， 较去年同期的 123.33kg/吨增加 4.16kg/吨；制糖比为 21.24%，较去年同期的 32.68%减少 11.44%；产乙醇 5.61 亿升，较去年同期的 4.88 亿升增加 0.73 亿升， 同比增幅 14.91%；产糖量为 0.56 万吨，较去年同期的 0.66 万吨减少 0.1 万吨， 同比降幅达 14.93%。 经测算，配额内巴西糖加工完税估算成本 3993 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完 税估算成本为 5072 元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious bullish view on the benzene and styrene market, suggesting waiting for buying opportunities after a pullback [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of benzene has marginally improved, and port inventories have started to decline from high levels. Styrene prices have strengthened further due to supply contraction expectations caused by unexpected news. However, due to the high price increases of benzene and styrene and the subsequent resumption of some plants, along with the still - high benzene inventories, there is a risk of a pullback [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - The 300,000 - ton/year styrene plant of Tangshan Xuyang has malfunctioned and stopped production. The inventory is mainly for contract delivery, and there is no external quotation today [1] - From January 10th to 16th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.12% month - on - month to 74.26%, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene decreased by 4.07% month - on - month to 57.59% [1] - According to Steel Union data, from January 10th to 16th, the weighted operating rate of benzene downstream industries increased by 2.14% month - on - month to 74.50% [1] - As of January 19th, the benzene inventory at East China ports was 297,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.33% [1] - From January 9th to 15th, the profit of petroleum benzene was 369 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/ton [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will research, formulate and introduce an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [2] - Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises, set up a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan quota for private investment to be implemented over two years, extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumption loans to the end of 2026, and in 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The supply - demand situation of benzene has marginally improved, and port inventories are decreasing from high levels. Styrene prices have strengthened further due to supply contraction expectations. Due to the high price increases and subsequent plant resumptions, along with high benzene inventories, there is a risk of a pullback. It is advisable to wait for buying opportunities after a pullback and pay attention to market sentiment changes due to recent macro news [3]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is in a pattern of high inventory and high supply. The short - term decline is due to low - price warehouse receipts and pre - holiday de - stocking pressure. In the short - term weak supply - demand pattern, the price is expected to remain weak, but beware of over - decline and rebound, especially not to be overly bearish after April next year. It is necessary to focus on the start - up of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises and the production cuts of caustic soda producers [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - From January 9th to 15th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [1] - From January 10th to 16th, the alumina start - up rate increased by 0.09% week - on - week to 85.83%. From January 9th to 15th, the viscose staple fiber start - up rate remained stable at 88.43% week - on - week, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 1.33% week - on - week to 58.76% [1] - As of January 15th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 512,100 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 3.41% and a year - on - year increase of 99.64% [1] - Weiqiao's caustic soda purchase price has been continuously lowered, with a reduction of 15 yuan since January 18th, and the ex - factory price is 630 yuan/ton [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study, formulate and introduce an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [2] - Multiple departments including the Ministry of Finance will implement an interest - subsidy policy for loans to small and medium - sized enterprises, set up a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan quota for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest - subsidy policy for personal consumption loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Caustic soda is in a high - inventory and high - supply situation. Currently, the warehouse receipt cost is lower than the spot price. The short - term decline is due to low - price warehouse receipts and pre - holiday de - stocking pressure. Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, while spring (March - May) and autumn (September - October) are the traditional centralized maintenance seasons. The futures price has continuously hit new lows. In the short - term weak supply - demand pattern, the price is weak, but beware of over - decline and rebound, especially not to be overly bearish after April next year. The main downstream alumina has rebounded recently, and the electrolytic aluminum industry is operating stably. Focus on the start - up of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises and the production cuts of caustic soda producers [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the far - month contract has strengthened slightly due to the accelerated implementation of the US biofuel policy. The US biofuel policy may weaken the surplus of US soybeans to some extent but cannot provide long - term upward drive. For soybean meal, it is recommended that those with large spot positions consider using price fluctuations to wash the basis, and there is no trend for futures speculation [1]. - The biofuel policy is about to be clarified, boosting market sentiment. The market is cautiously optimistic about the final regulations, believing they will have a positive impact on the demand for raw materials for biodiesel production, including soybean oil [1]. - The exports of Malaysian palm oil decreased, but due to the entry into the off - season of production, it is expected that the inventory reduction will continue. It is still recommended to gradually buy on dips. The rapeseed oil has strong support below, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the US biofuel policy in early March, which may bring additional upward drive to the oil and fat sector [2]. Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - The US Treasury Secretary confirmed that China fulfilled the commitment to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans, but only about 5% of the soybeans have been shipped to China [1]. - The near - month supply has a certain gap, but the probability of an extreme shortage situation like last year is relatively small. The spot rhythm around the Spring Festival is still unclear [1]. Oils and Fats - StoneX: The market expects the US Environmental Protection Agency to soon issue final regulations on biofuels, including the small refinery exemption policy [1]. - According to SGS data, the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 20 was 658,379 tons, a 2.70% decrease from the same period last month [2]. - Palm oil buying has weakened due to rising prices, and the decline in Malaysian palm oil export data is due to this. However, due to the entry into the production off - season, inventory reduction is expected to continue [2]. - Although the purchase of Canadian rapeseed has started, the crushing cost under the current 15% tariff is still high, which is not enough to cause the futures price to fall, and there is strong support below [2].

【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：市场情绪降温，刚需有所松动 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 22 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内窄幅震荡，收于 786.5 元/吨，较 前一个交易日收盘价上涨 2.5 元/吨，涨幅+0.32%，成交 19.7 万手，持仓量 56.6 万手，沉淀资金 98.02 亿。期货盘面关注下方 780 支撑附近进一步测试， 短期此支撑附近略显抗跌。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 795 涨+1，超特粉 674 涨 +1，掉期主力 103.4(+0.1)美元/吨。现货小幅反弹、掉期价格止跌。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 830.2 元/吨，基差 43.7 元/吨， 基差小幅走扩；铁矿 5-9 价差 17 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 12.5 元，铁矿期货合约呈 现 back 结构+正基差，短期下探至支撑附近，略显止跌，继续关注支撑附近进 一步测试。 二、基本面梳理 海外矿山发运环比减量，澳巴环比减量较为明显，非主流国家环比增加;本 期到港环比下滑，由于天气影响供给端存扰动预期;需求端，铁水产量环比下 滑，烧结粉矿日耗环比减量，烧结 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 22 日 大豆：东北产区低蛋白大豆现货价格回落，高蛋白大豆供应偏紧，保持优质 优价特征，部分区域 39%蛋白含量的商品豆价格维持在 2.2 元/斤附近。周三中 储粮进行的 33058 吨国产大豆购销双向竞价再次全部成交。近期大豆市场的核心 变化集中在调控端，一边是多地粮库陆续停收，另一边是大豆拍卖量显著提升， 不过市场价格却依旧保持高位坚挺，没出现大的波动。预估大豆延续震荡走势。 玉米：政策端进口玉米及竞价销售玉米持续投放，一定程度上补充市场供应， 但成交多存在溢价，提振市场情绪。基层挺价情绪较强，中下游存有刚性补库需 求，支撑玉米偏强运行。但下游企业在亏损下对高价玉米接受度不高，或限制玉 米价格上涨空间。整体来看，玉米市场支撑与压力并存，价格保持高位震荡。后 续基层售粮心态变化及政策投放力度仍是关注重点。建议节前宽幅震荡看待，不 过如存在较大回落调整，仍可考虑逢低买入。 鸡蛋：最近鸡蛋价格飙升，标志着蛋鸡养殖行业逐步走出低谷，迎来盈利修 复的关键转折点。这一变化不仅缓解了养殖户的资金压力，更重塑了市场信心。 不过价格反弹再次使得近期涨价老鸡淘汰又在犹豫， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the coke industry is a wide - range, sideways movement, with a strategy of buying on dips [1][2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy guidance. Currently, the combined inventory of coking coal and coke continues to rise, in a seasonal inventory - building phase, with overall weak supply - demand. Downstream steel mills' hot metal production is relatively stable, restocking as needed. Real - estate investment growth rate decline continues to expand, and medium - to - long - term demand continues to decline. The macro environment is generally positive, with domestic reserve requirement ratio cuts implemented and fiscal policies continuing to be proactive, and there are still expectations for future policies. Overall, the market is expected to be in a wide - range sideways movement [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Coke Inventory - As of January 16, independent coke - making enterprises' inventory dropped 4.95% month - on - month to 81.81 tons. Steel mills' inventory increased to 650.33 tons, and port inventory rose 6.41% to 265.07 tons. The combined coke inventory increased by 16.31 tons to 997.21 tons, reaching a seven - month high, and was more than 2% lower year - on - year [1] 2. Coke Profit - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 65 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is - 53 yuan/ton, and also - 7 yuan/ton. The average profit of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 105 yuan/ton, and that of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is - 12 yuan/ton [1] 3. Downstream Demand - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 78.84%, 1.66 percentage points higher than the previous year. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 85.48%. The daily average hot - metal output decreased by 1.49 tons month - on - month to 228.01 tons, 3.53 tons higher than the previous year [1] 4. Upstream Coking Coal - The coking coal inventory of coal mines dropped 7.66%, while that of independent coke - making enterprises increased 5.71% to 1132.85 tons. Steel mills' coking coal inventory slightly increased to 802.2 tons, and the port's imported coking coal inventory continued to rise. The combined coking coal inventory increased by nearly 2% month - on - month to 2769.85 tons, lower than the same period in previous years [2] 5. News - In 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at necessary levels, ensuring that the overall expenditure level "only increases" and the guarantee for key areas "only strengthens". Five departments including the Ministry of Finance issued a notice to implement a loan interest - subsidy policy for small, medium, and micro enterprises. The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that efforts will be made to stabilize the real - estate market this year and support reasonable financing needs of real - estate enterprises [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. It's advisable to adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. Future attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened and closed higher, showing a slightly stronger intraday trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are opening downward, indicating a short - term continuation of the weak and volatile signal. The intraday pressure is near the 30 - and 20 - day moving averages, and support is near the previous low. The trading volume increased by 172,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 13,245 lots. The intraday high was 1185, the low was 1159, and the closing price was 1185, up 17 yuan/ton or 1.46% compared to the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: It showed a light and stable oscillation. The enterprise equipment is gradually increasing. Wucai Alkali Industry's equipment has resumed operation, while Xuzhou Fengcheng has slightly reduced production. The overall supply continues to increase, but downstream demand is average, with cautious purchasing and mainly low - price demand - based procurement [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1250, and the basis is 65 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, domestic soda ash production was 771,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3600 tons or 0.46%. Light soda ash production was 358,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2700 tons; heavy soda ash production was 412,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons. The overall capacity utilization rate was 86.42%, down 0.40% from last week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 87.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 77.99%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of 1 million tons and above was 89.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.42% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5212 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons or 1.49% compared to Monday. Among them, light soda ash was 82,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1900 tons; heavy soda ash was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,900 tons. Compared to last Thursday, it decreased by 53,800 tons or 3.42%. Among them, light soda ash was 824,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,500 tons; heavy soda ash was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41,300 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9170 tons or 6.41% [2][3] - **Demand**: The soda ash enterprise's shipment volume was 825,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%. The overall shipment rate was 106.98%, a month - on - month increase of 7.27%. Downstream demand for soda ash was average, with poor purchasing enthusiasm, mainly consuming inventory and making low - price rigid - demand purchases [3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit of the co - production method (per two tons) was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, with a slight decline in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - Currently, the soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high. With the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall production is constantly increasing. There is still an expectation of cold - repair for glass production lines near the end of the month, and the rigid demand for soda ash may further weaken. In general, under the expectation of high - level long - term supply of soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction continues to intensify. Although exports remain high, alleviating some pressure, the high inventory pressure still restricts price rebounds [4]

二、基本面数据 【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃日报：延续震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 22 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：玻璃主力高开高走，日内震荡偏强。120 分钟布林带三轨向 下，短期延续震荡偏弱信号。盘中压力关注日线的 30、20 均线附近，支撑先关 注前低附近。成交量较昨日增 22.4 万手，持仓量较昨日减 924 手；日内最高 1060， 最低 1037，收盘 1057，（较昨结算价）涨 7 元/吨，涨幅 0.67%。 2，现货市场：华北，交投平淡，部分厂家报价下调；华东，刚需采购为主， 厂家稳价出货；华中，逢低采买，实际成交价有所松动；华南，出货较前期放缓， 主流价格持稳。 3，基差：华北现货价格 1010，基差-47 元/吨。 供应方面玻璃产线长期亏损，加速部分企业产能出清，且春节前仍有部分产 线冷修计划，供给端有进一步收缩预期。只是，本月房地产开发投资及资金到位 情况均同比延续下滑，竣工与新开工疲软，地产需求仍未见好转。综合来看，房 地产数据继续走低，临近月底市场刚需也在加速走弱，虽少数产线仍有冷修预期， 但产能收缩可能不及淡季需求的回落，叠加高企的库存压力，预计价格短期维持 震 ...