地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 19 日 热点品种 商品 力 涨 幅与增仓 原油： 欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次 增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一 次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月 继续加速石油增产，原油供给压力仍大。不过 OPEC+产量增长不及预期，近日加 拿大阿尔伯塔省的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协 议谈判陷入僵局，会谈已经无限期中止。美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，以色列和 伊朗近期已经将袭击目标从核设施及军事设施扩大至能源设施。另外，近期以色 列和伊朗间的风险有所外溢，中东地缘风险加剧升温，美国石油钻井数量下降幅 度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原油供给压力缓解。需求端，美国非农数据、 CPI 数据好于预期，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议上中美原则上达成协议框架，市 场风险偏好回升，美国进入传统出行旺季， ...

1. Fed Interest Rate Decision - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% in its June rate decision, staying on hold for the fourth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations [1]. - The Fed indicated that the uncertainty about the outlook has diminished but remains at a high level, lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4%, and raised the inflation forecast to 3% [1]. - The Fed's dot - plot shows two 25 - basis - point rate cuts in 2025, consistent with March expectations, but only a 25 - basis - point cut in 2026, down from the previous forecast of 50 basis points [1]. 2. US President's Statement on Iran - Israel Conflict - US President Trump stated that the US is seeking a "complete victory," meaning "Iran without nuclear weapons," and that "an agreement is still possible" [1]. - Trump has not decided whether to take military action against Iran and mentioned that Iran wants to negotiate and is willing to come to the White House [1]. 3. Expansion of Qualified Foreign Investors' Participation - Starting from the trading on June 20 (the night session on June 19), qualified foreign investors can participate in glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, ethylene glycol, liquefied petroleum gas, natural rubber, lead, and tin futures and options contracts [1]. - From October 9, qualified foreign investors will be allowed to participate in on - exchange ETF options trading for hedging purposes to promote long - term investment in A - shares [2]. 4. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Policy Adjustments - Starting from the settlement on June 20, the trading margin standard for jujube futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, and the daily price limit will be adjusted to 8% [2]. - Starting from the night session on June 19, the minimum order quantity for rapeseed meal futures contracts 2507, 2508, 2509, 2511, and 2601 will be adjusted to 4 lots [2]. 5. Key Commodities to Watch - The report highlights urea, crude oil, PP, coking coal, and rebar [3]. 6. Night - session Performance of Commodity Futures - The night - session performance of commodity futures includes information on price changes and position - increasing ratios [3]. 7. Sector Performance - Different commodity sectors have varying performance, with precious metals at 29.95%, non - metallic building materials at 2.55%, etc. [6]. 8. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and others have different daily, monthly, and yearly price changes. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index has a daily change of 0.04%, a monthly change of 1.23%, and a yearly change of 1.11% [8][9].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The copper market is in a volatile situation, with the market waiting for new drivers. The geopolitical conflict is escalating, increasing market risk aversion and expectations of economic uncertainty. The Fed's FOMC meeting hinted at two potential rate cuts this year. Fundamentally, the supply side has an increase in refined copper concentrate port inventory, and the negative expansion of domestic smelting fees signals a potential reduction in production, supporting the bottom space of copper prices. However, copper production remains at a high level. On the demand side, downstream purchasing willingness is low, the market is cautious in the face of high prices, and the downstream operating rate has slowed down. The terminal wire and cable industry maintains resilience, but the home appliance industry's production schedule has shrunk, and the real estate industry has a negative impact. Overall, the fundamentals have no significant fluctuations, maintaining the logic of tight supply expectations and weakening marginal demand. The copper price is affected by copper tariff policies and the Middle - East situation, fluctuating within a range. Before breaking through the upper resistance level, the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock, and the downside space is also limited by tight supply expectations [1]. Group 3: Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened higher and faced pressure during the day. Geopolitical conflicts have led to increased risk aversion and economic uncertainty, making investors cautious. The Fed's FOMC meeting hinted at two potential rate cuts this year. On the supply side, the port inventory of refined copper concentrate has increased, and the negative expansion of domestic smelting fees signals a potential reduction in production, supporting the bottom space of copper prices. However, copper production remains at a high level. On the demand side, downstream purchasing willingness is low, the market is cautious in the face of high prices, and the downstream operating rate has slowed down. The terminal wire and cable industry maintains resilience, but the home appliance industry's production schedule has shrunk, and the real estate industry has a negative impact. The market is waiting for new guidance, and before breaking through the upper resistance level, the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock, and the downside space is limited by tight supply expectations [1]. Group 4: Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The Shanghai copper market opened higher and closed slightly lower, at 78,310. The long positions of the top 20 were 123,219 lots, a decrease of 3,503 lots; the short positions were 110,314 lots, a decrease of 5,170 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan/ton, and in South China was 135 yuan/ton. On June 18, 2025, the LME official price was $9,684/ton, and the spot premium was $156.5/ton [4]. Group 5: Supply Side - As of June 13, the spot smelting fee (TC) was -$43.91/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -4.40 cents/pound [6]. Group 6: Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 44,800 tons, a decrease of 2,198 tons from the previous period. As of June 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 59,800 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 103,300 tons, a slight decrease of 4,025 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 199,900 short tons, an increase of 1,544 short tons from the previous period [8].

【冠通研究】 高价成交不畅，反弹受阻 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1773 元/吨低开高走，最终收于 1780 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-0.22%，持仓量 249205 手（-12128 手）。前二十名主力持 仓席位来看，多头-827 手，空头-9959 手。其中，永安期货净多单增加 1811 手、 东证期货净多单增加 2613 手；一德期货净空单增加 1904 手，中信期货净空单减 少 3794 手。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 2025 年 6 月 19 日，尿素仓单数量 3881 张，环比上个交易日-484 张，其中 中原大化-23 张，安阳万庄-396 张，辽宁化肥-65 张。 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 19 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素盘面低开高走，盘面反弹受阻，下游掀起高价抵触情绪，上游工 厂待发订单充足，目前存挺价心理。市场受国际尿素刺激后的反弹接近尾声， 盘面预计回归基本面交易逻辑，近期部分装置有检修计划，山东瑞星及陕西陕 化都有减产。需求端华北东北地区农需正在进行中，但数量不足以支撑尿素行 情大幅 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/19 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 周三夜盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现，SC 原油涨超 3%，玻璃涨近 2%，液 化石油气（LPG）、豆油、纸浆、甲醇涨近 1%。跌幅方面，焦煤、焦炭、豆一 跌近 1%。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.60%报 3386.40 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 1.05%报 36.76 美元/盎司。 3. 美油主力合约收跌 0.22%，报 73.11 美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌 0.26%， 报 76.25 美元/桶。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数上涨，LME 期镍涨 1.15%报 15095.00 美元/吨，LME 期 铜跌 0.19%报 9650.50 美元/吨。 5. 国际农产品期货涨跌不一，美大豆跌 0.12%，美玉米涨 1.24%，美豆油跌 0.36%，美豆粕跌 0.10%，美小麦涨 4.24%。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 地址：北京市 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trading strategies for multiple futures varieties, including crude oil, asphalt, PVC, L&PP, copper, and urea, based on their supply - demand situations, market sentiment, and geopolitical factors [3][6][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Trading Logic**: OPEC+ increased production, but growth was below expectations. Supply pressure eased due to wildfires in Canada, Middle - East geopolitical risks, and a decline in US drilling. Demand improved with better - than - expected US economic data and the start of the traditional travel season. However, there are concerns about OPEC+ future production increases and trade - war impacts on demand [3]. - **Multi - Short View**: The price is expected to oscillate upward [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Lightly buy crude oil call options [3]. Asphalt - **Trading Logic**: Supply increased as the asphalt开工率 rose. Demand was mixed, with road asphalt开工率 down. Inventory was low. Geopolitical factors and trade - war concerns affected the market. As it enters the peak season, the price is expected to be in high - level oscillation [3]. - **Multi - Short View**: High - level oscillation [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread [3]. PVC - **Trading Logic**: Supply was high as the开工率 was relatively high. Demand was weak, with exports affected by Indian policies and the real - estate market still in a slow - recovery phase. Inventory was high. However, positive commodity sentiment from geopolitical factors and trade talks may lead to a small rebound [3]. - **Multi - Short View**: Small rebound [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell short after the price rebounds [3]. L&PP - **Trading Logic**: The开工率 of plastics and PP was relatively high. Downstream开工率 decreased slightly. Inventory was high. Positive commodity sentiment may lead to a small rebound [3]. - **Multi - Short View**: Small rebound [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell short after the price rebounds [3]. Copper - **Trading Logic**: Macro - uncertainties came from geopolitical conflicts and Sino - US trade talks. Supply was stable, while demand weakened, with consumption down and downstream拿货积极性 low. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts boosted bullish sentiment, but the price remained in an oscillation range [6]. - **Multi - Short View**: Range - bound fluctuation [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long at low prices within the range [6]. Urea - **Trading Logic**: Supply was high with daily production around 200,000 tons. Demand was weak, with agricultural demand yet to fully start and industrial demand weak. Inventory was under pressure. The price rebounded due to better weekend sales, but the rebound height is limited [9]. - **Multi - Short View**: Low - level rebound with limited upside [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell short after the price rebounds [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Recent supply and demand conditions for crude oil have improved, and geopolitical risks have sharply increased, leading to a significant price increase. However, OPEC+ has sufficient idle capacity, and future production increases by OPEC+ along with the drag from the trade war on later demand, combined with high geopolitical risks, result in high volatility. It is recommended to operate cautiously and lightly buy crude oil call options [3][4]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal opened lower and closed higher today, with intraday pressure. The fundamentals remain loose, and the upward momentum of the market is limited. Attention should be paid to the resistance level around 800 yuan/ton [5]. - **Copper**: The fundamentals of copper have not changed significantly, maintaining the logic of a tight supply outlook and weakening marginal demand. Currently, copper prices fluctuate within a range, and the market is waiting for new guidance [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate industry chain still has a relatively loose fundamental pattern, with price games between upstream and downstream, low trading enthusiasm, and a bearish market sentiment [10][11]. - **Urea**: The supply of urea remains loose, and the demand provides only a phased rebound. The future direction of futures prices will affect market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and domestic export policies [12]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt has been following the upward trend of crude oil recently, but due to the high volatility of crude oil, cautious operation is recommended. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is advisable to go long on the 09 - 12 spread of asphalt [13][14]. - **PP**: Although the inventory pressure of PP is still high, considering that China and the US have agreed to implement the results of the economic and trade talks and the significant increase in crude oil prices, it is expected that PP will rebound [15]. - **Plastic**: The inventory pressure of plastic is large, but with the improvement of market sentiment, it is expected to rebound in the near future [16][17]. - **PVC**: Before the demand for PVC is substantially improved, the pressure is high. However, due to the improvement of market sentiment, it is expected to have a slight rebound in the near future [18]. - **Rebar**: Although the supply of rebar has decreased, the weak demand makes it difficult to quickly digest the inventory, limiting the upward space of prices. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term [19][20]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It is expected that the hot - rolled coil main contract will continue to show a narrow - range oscillating trend in the near future. Attention should be paid to factors such as demand recovery, inventory changes, and macro - economic policy adjustments [21][23]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. However, OPEC+ production growth has fallen short of expectations, and factors such as wildfires in Canada and the deadlock in the US - Iran nuclear deal negotiations have alleviated supply pressure [3]. - **Demand**: US non - farm and CPI data are better than expected, and the market risk appetite has recovered. The US has entered the traditional travel season, and crude oil inventories are decreasing. However, the current performance of refined oil demand and inventory data is poor [3]. Coking Coal - **Supply**: The operating rate of coal washing plants has increased this period, but coal plants are still affected by environmental protection factors and have a reduction expectation. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal remains normal, but the inventory of coking coal is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists [5]. - **Demand**: The profit per ton of independent coking enterprises has declined significantly. After three rounds of price cuts for coke, there is still an expectation of further price cuts. The steel end remains weak, and the demand from steel mills is expected to decline [5]. Copper - **Supply**: The port inventory of refined copper ore has increased this period, and there is a risk of production reduction for smelters. However, copper production is still at a high level [9]. - **Demand**: Downstream purchasing willingness is insufficient, the operating rate has slowed down, and the demand from the home appliance and real estate industries is weak [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Supply**: The supply is sufficient, the utilization rate of production capacity is at a high level, and the total inventory has reached a high level [10]. - **Demand**: The terminal market has declined month - on - month, and battery enterprises mainly maintain rigid procurement [10][11]. Urea - **Supply**: The supply remains loose, the daily production changes little, and there are no devices with long - term shutdown plans [12]. - **Demand**: Agricultural demand is expected to last until the end of June, with limited quantity, continuity, and intensity. The raw material price of compound fertilizer plants has risen, but the terminal sales are sluggish [12]. Asphalt - **Supply**: The operating rate of asphalt has rebounded, and the expected production of refineries in June has increased [13]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of most downstream industries have declined, and the national shipment volume has decreased [13]. PP - **Supply**: Some overhaul devices have restarted, and new devices have been put into production, resulting in increased supply and high inventory [15]. - **Demand**: The downstream recovery is slow, and new orders are limited [15]. Plastic - **Supply**: Some overhaul devices have restarted, and new production capacity has been put into operation, with high inventory [16][17]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate has declined, and new orders are limited [16][17]. PVC - **Supply**: The operating rate is high, and the supply pressure is large [18]. - **Demand**: The demand has not been substantially improved, and the real estate market is still in the process of improvement [18]. Rebar - **Supply**: Blast furnaces have reduced production for five consecutive weeks, and the operating rate of electric furnaces has continued to decline, resulting in a contraction of supply [19][20]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand has weakened significantly, and the inventory pressure is large [20]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply**: The production is relatively stable, and there is no significant change in supply [21]. - **Demand**: The demand from the real estate, automobile, and manufacturing industries is weak, and the inventory has increased [21][23]. Market Performance - As of the close on June 18, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Crude oil rose by more than 6%, and many varieties such as p - xylene and PTA rose by more than 3%. In terms of decline, polysilicon fell by nearly 2%, and Shanghai lead fell by nearly 1%. In the stock index futures market, most contracts rose slightly, and in the bond futures market, there were both rises and falls [7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:03, funds flowed into varieties such as Shanghai silver 2508 and crude oil 2508, while funds flowed out of contracts such as CSI 1000 2506 and CSI 300 2506 [7][8].

【冠通研究】 原油：大幅上涨 制作日期：2025年6月18日 【策略分析】 轻仓买入原油看涨期权 欧佩克+同意7月份将石油产量提高41.1万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次增产与5月和6月的 增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于7月6日举行下一次会议，决定8月产量政策。据知情人士透 露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月继续加速石油增产，原油供给压力仍大。不过OPEC+产量增长不 及预期，近日加拿大阿尔伯塔省的野火已经导致该省近35万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协议谈 判陷入僵局，会谈已经无限期中止。美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，以色列和伊朗近期已经将袭击目 标从核设施及军事设施扩大至能源设施。另外，近期以色列核伊朗间的风险有所外溢，中东地缘风 险加剧升温，美国石油钻井数量下降幅度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原油供给压力缓解。需求 端，美国非农数据、CPI数据好于预期，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议上中美原则上达成协议框架，市 场风险偏好回升，美国进入传统出行旺季，原油去库，只是目前成品油需求与库存数据表现不佳。 全球贸易战对经济的伤害悲观预期仍未完全扭转，最新的EIA短期能源展望报告将2025年全球石油库 存增幅从0.4万 ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures: Most domestic futures rose. SC crude oil rose 6.13%, PX and PTA rose over 3%, short - fiber, LPG, methanol, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and bottle chips rose over 2%. Coking coal and iron ore fell slightly [2] - International crude oil: US crude oil rose 4.97% to $73.74 per barrel, Brent crude rose 4.96% to $76.86 per barrel [3] - International precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.32% to $3406.50 per ounce, COMEX silver rose 2.01% to $37.18 per ounce [4] - London base metals: Most London base metals fell. LME copper fell 0.34% to $9670 per ton, LME lead fell 1.57% to $1976 per ton [5] - International agricultural products: International agricultural products were mixed. US soybeans rose 0.40%, US corn fell 0.92%, US soybean oil fell 0.76%, US soybean meal rose 0.53%, and US wheat rose 2.33% [6] 2. Important News Macro News - Geopolitical: Trump denied Macron's statement about his return to Washington. Israel wants to destroy Iran's nuclear program. Iran attacked Israeli intelligence agencies. Russia attacked Kiev with drones and missiles [9][10] - US economy: US retail sales in May fell more than expected due to weak auto sales. Retail sales fell 0.9% in May after a 0.1% decline in April [12][13] Energy and Chemical Futures - Oil market: IEA predicts oil demand will peak in 2029 and supply will be sufficient by 2030. Russia's Novak said OPEC+ may change its production - increase decision. The EU plans to ban long - term LNG services to Russian customers from 2026 [15][16] Metal Futures - Gold: Citi expects gold to fall below $3000 per ounce in the next few quarters. 95% of central banks surveyed by the World Gold Council think global central banks will increase gold reserves in the next 12 months [18][20] Black - Series Futures - Iron ore: On June 17, China's 47 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 24.99 tons. Australian and Brazilian port inventories also declined [22] Agricultural Futures - Soybeans and related products: As of June 13, domestic soybean and bean - meal inventories changed. Some US states may have less soybean planting due to rain. India cut edible - oil tariffs. EU's imports of agricultural products changed. Brazil's June soybean export forecast was adjusted [24][26][27] 3. Financial Markets Stocks - A - shares: On Tuesday, A - shares had a narrow range. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.04%, Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.12%, and ChiNext Index fell 0.36%. The trading volume was 1.24 trillion yuan [29] - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index fell 0.34%. South - bound capital had net purchases of HK$63 billion. Many companies had IPO - related news [31][32] - US stocks: US stocks fell. The Dow fell 0.7%, S&P 500 fell 0.84%, and Nasdaq fell 0.91% [42] - European stocks: European stocks fell due to geopolitical risks and economic concerns [42] Commodities - Oil: Oil prices rose. US API crude inventory decreased more than expected. IEA predicts a supply surplus in 2025 [44][46] - Precious metals: Gold fell 0.32%, silver rose 2.01%. Central banks are likely to increase gold reserves [44][46] - Base metals: Most base metals fell, affected by Fed policy and demand [44] Bonds - Domestic bonds: Domestic bonds were strong. Short - term bonds performed better. Bond funds' investment heat increased [47] - US bonds: US bond yields fell due to geopolitical risks and expected Fed rate cuts [48] - EU bonds: EU bond yields rose due to increased bond supply expectations [50] Foreign Exchange - RMB: On Tuesday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell. The US dollar index rose due to its safe - haven property [51]

制作日期：2025 年 6 月 17 日 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 热点品种 尿素： 今日尿素盘面继续反弹近 4%,上游工厂价格均有不同幅度的上调，市场情绪被连 日反弹的期货价格提涨，下游成交气氛也随之转好。本周上涨同样收到伊以冲突 的影响，国际尿素供应扰动预期刺激国内价格上涨，基本面来看，供给端日产数 据维持在 20 万吨以上水平，目前中长期维持窄幅波动，对行情上方持续形成压 制，需求端，农需备肥好转，东北玉米追肥即将展开，华北地区农需仍在等待启 动，预计下月将逐步展开；复合肥工厂方面，目前工厂开工负荷下降，且厂内成 品库存去化受阻，终端走货不畅，且秋季肥进度缓慢，对原料尿素端需求承接力 度疲弱。上周库存数据显示厂内库存继续增加，除需求疲弱外，出口订单企业主 动累库，待月底逐渐出口货物释放后，厂内库存压力将缓解。综合来看，尿素基 本面依然宽松，本次反弹主要系价格低位下贸易商拿货增加，且以伊冲突刺激能 化板块的走强，多属市场情绪主导而基本面尚未明显有好转，盘面反弹或难形成 持续性看涨行情，但后续农需即 ...