下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 16766.53 310.73 9388.82 281.9 2659.7 40.19 228.1 78.68 85.51 40.69 10.50 上期 16555.1 319.89 9262.22 281.84 2920.4 39.66 228.01 78.84 85.48 39.83 7.00 周变动 211.43 -9.16 126.60 0.06 -260.70 0.53 0.09 -0.16 0.03 0.86 3.50 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 12609.17 2204.9 406.14 1546.32 本期 11124.84 5628.71 7588.05 上期 12480.26 2154.13 391 1529.71 上期 10947.85 5707.14 7389.21 周变动 128.91 50.77 15.14 16.61 周变动 176.99 -78.43 198.84 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研 ...

纯碱&玻璃产业链周度数据 研究咨询部 2026/1/23 | | | 纯碱周度数据 | | | 玻璃周度数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本期 | 前值 | 周变动 | | 本期 | 前值 | 周变动 | | 供给 | 开工率 | 86.42 | 86.82 | -0.4 | 开工率 | 71.620 | 71.483 | 0.137 0 | | | 产量 | 77.17 | 77.53 | -0.36 | 产线条数 | 212 | 212 | | | | 重质产量 | 41.29 | 41.38 | -0.09 | 产量 | | 105.5215 105.2315 | 0.29 | | | 轻质产量 | 35.88 | 36.15 | -0.27 | | | | | | 库存 | 厂内库存 | 152.12 | 157.5 | -5.38 | 库存 | 5321.58 | 5301.3 | 20.28 | | | 重质库存 | 69.67 | 73.8 | -4.13 | 库存可用天数 | 23. ...

1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of overnight market trends across various sectors including precious metals, energy, base metals, and financial markets. It also covers important macro - economic news and industry - specific developments, which can help investors understand the current market situation and potential investment opportunities [3][7][28] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 2.09% at $4938.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 3.86% at $96.22 per ounce [4] - US crude oil and Brent crude oil futures declined, with US crude down 1.57% at $59.67 per barrel and Brent down 1.39% at $63.63 per barrel [5] - London base metals all increased, with LME tin up 2.42% at $52660 per ton, LME zinc up 1.81% at $3233 per ton, etc. [5] Important Information Macro - Information - China's central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. A 900 - billion - yuan MLF operation will be carried out on January 23, 2026 [8] - US President Trump threatened "major retaliatory measures" if European countries sell US assets due to his tariff threats. The US House of Representatives passed a 2026 fiscal - year appropriation bill, and Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran [8][9] Energy and Chemical Futures - Singapore's fuel oil inventory dropped to a 13 - week low, while light and medium distillate inventories reached multi - week highs. National float - glass sample enterprises' inventory increased slightly, and the theoretical profit of soda ash production improved [12] - East - China port methanol inventory decreased, and Dubai set the official premium of April - loading Dubai crude oil [13] Metal Futures - Goldman Sachs raised its year - end gold price forecast to $5400 per ounce due to strong demand from private investors and central banks [15] - China's alumina and electrolytic aluminum production showed year - on - year growth in 2025. A mining accident occurred in Guinea, and Japanese copper smelters are negotiating TC/RC fees [15][17] Black - Series Futures - Steel social inventory in 21 cities decreased slightly in mid - January. An Australian iron - ore producer increased production and shipments and raised its 2026 shipping target [20] - Rebar production and mill inventory increased, and social inventory rose for the third week. Some coal mines resumed production, and manganese - ore production and sales had different trends [22] Agricultural Product Futures - China will consider Canada's reasonable demands on rapeseed trade through dialogue. Brazilian port sugar - waiting - to - ship volume increased, and the US exported soybeans. Brazil's soybean production, export, and crushing are expected to increase in 2026 [25][27] Financial Markets Financial - A - shares and Hong Kong stocks had narrow - range fluctuations. Alibaba plans to restructure its chip unit "PingTouGe" for potential independent listing. Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO entered the inquiry stage, and Yuanqi Forest denied an IPO plan [29][31][33] Industry - Market regulators prohibited a utility - industry merger. Nine departments promoted the high - quality development of the pharmaceutical retail industry, and relevant food - safety standards and policies are in the works [33] - China's smart - device manufacturing sales increased in 2025. The second - hand housing market in some areas showed a warming trend, and new breakthroughs were made in refrigeration technology [34] Overseas - Trump advanced a Greenland deal and threatened retaliation against Europe. The US tried to subvert the Cuban regime. US GDP growth was strong in Q3 2025 [35] - Japan had a trade deficit in 2025, and the Bank of Japan may take a hawkish stance. South Korea's GDP growth slowed in 2025, and it implemented an AI law [36][37] International Stock Markets - US, European, and most Asian stock markets rose. US economic data and reduced trade concerns boosted market confidence, and European trade - tension relief led to a tech - stock rebound [38] Commodities - Goldman Sachs raised its gold - price forecast. Precious metals rose due to various factors, while crude oil declined on inventory concerns. Base metals all increased [41][42] Bonds - Domestic bond markets were slightly weak, and US bond yields mostly rose [44] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose slightly, and the RMB's global payment share decreased in December 2025. The US dollar index declined [45] Upcoming Events - There will be RMB 86.7 billion in reverse - repurchase maturities in China's central - bank open market. Multiple press conferences and symposiums are scheduled, including those by the Japanese and British central banks [48]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - In 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and has room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [2]. - On January 23, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1 - year term [2]. - US President Trump said he would take "major retaliatory measures" if European countries sold US assets due to his tariff threats [2]. - In mid - January, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 7.09 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons or 0.3% from the previous period [2]. - The estimated retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in January is about 1.8 million, a 20.4% decrease from the previous month and a 0.3% increase year - on - year, with new energy retail reaching about 800,000 and a penetration rate of about 44.4% [2]. 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on include crude oil, coking coal, coke, silver, and styrene [3]. - Night - session performance of commodity futures: Non - metallic building materials rose 1.98%, precious metals rose 38.08%, oilseeds and fats rose 7.87%, soft commodities rose 2.69%, non - ferrous metals rose 24.46%, coal, coke, steel and minerals rose 9.34%, energy rose 2.13%, chemicals rose 9.52%, grains rose 1.11%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.81% [3]. 3. Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4]. 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily % Change | Monthly % Change | Year - to - Date % Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300 | 0.08, - 0.11, 0.09 | 3.73, 1.19, 2.01 | 3.73, 1.19, 2.01 | | | CSI 500 | 1.12 | 11.71 | 11.71 | | | S&P 500 | 1.16 | 0.44 | 0.44 | | | Hang Seng Index | 0.37 | 3.72 | 3.72 | | | German DAX | - 0.51 | 0.36 | 0.36 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.41 | 4.84 | 4.84 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.11 | 2.08 | 2.08 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.03 | 0.32 | 0.32 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.11 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.01 | - 0.02 | - 0.02 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | 2.53 | 2.53 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 0.43 | 5.43 | 5.43 | | | London Spot Gold | 1.47 | 11.92 | 11.92 | | | LME Copper | 0.06 | 2.12 | 2.12 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.90 | 24.26 | 24.26 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.23 | 0.51 | 0.51 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 34.38 | 34.38 | [5] 5. Stock Market Risk Preference and Major Commodity Trends - The document presents the trends of the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, and other commodities, as well as the risk premium of the stock market [6].

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月22日 【行情分析】 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂 停增产。原油需求淡季，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存超预期累库，同时汽油库存增幅超预期，整体 油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量小幅减少，仍位于历史最高位附近。特朗普警告，如果印度不按 美方要求限制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提高对印度产品征收的关税。印度在2025年12月对俄 原油进口已跌至三年低点，较6月峰值下降三分之一。近期国际货币基金组织将2026年世界经济增速 上调0.2个百分点，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解。不过，全球原油浮库高企，原 油仍是供应过剩格局，EIA和IEA最新的1月月报上调了2026年原油供应过剩幅度。特朗普称委内瑞拉 将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，雪佛龙正加大对于委内瑞拉原油的运输。目前委内瑞拉对于 全球原油供需影响不大。特朗普在白宫表示，收到了"来自伊朗非常积极的声明"，"我们要先观 望局势发展"，伊朗国内骚乱得到控制，不过目前美国并未排除采取军事行动的可能性，伊朗地缘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market is expected to fluctuate in a range recently. Due to new plastic production capacities coming on - stream, a higher plastics operating rate than PP, and a continuous decline in agricultural film orders, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow. The improvement in the plastics supply - demand situation is limited, and downstream operating rates are expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - On January 22, new maintenance units such as the second line of Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 90%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of January 16, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93% compared to the previous week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream PE operating rate remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. The recent rebound in crude oil prices was driven by factors such as the temporary shutdown of a Kazakhstan oilfield, the postponed restart of CPC3 SPM, and increased heating oil demand due to cold weather. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. With the approaching Spring Festival, downstream operating rates are expected to decline, and terminal factories will mainly make purchases based on刚需 [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures - The plastics 2605 contract increased in position, fluctuated, and rose. The lowest price was 6,666 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,818 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,814 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 2.62%. The open interest increased by 11,162 lots to 515,524 lots [2]. 3.2.2. Spot - Most prices in the PE spot market rose, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 150 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6,600 - 6,970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,500 - 9,180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,820 - 8,040 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On January 22, new maintenance units such as the second line of Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 90%, at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand side: As of the week of January 16, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93% compared to the previous week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 540,000 tons compared to the previous day, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January but average recently, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $65 per barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $710 per ton compared to the previous period, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $690 per ton compared to the previous period [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Views - PP is expected to fluctuate within a range as its supply - demand pattern improves limitedly, downstream order cycles shorten, and downstream product profits shrink. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new plastic production capacity and falling agricultural film orders [1] Summary by Relevant Directory 行情分析 - As of the week of January 16, the PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, dropped 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On January 22, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard grade wire drawing rose to around 29% [1][7] - Petrochemicals had good inventory reduction in the first and middle ten - days of January, but the reduction has been average recently. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [1][7] - Due to the temporary shutdown of an oil field in Kazakhstan, the postponed resumption of CPC3 SPM, and increased heating oil demand due to cold weather, crude oil prices have rebounded recently [1] - A new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of CNPC Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased recently [1] - The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, but new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited as the Spring Festival holiday approaches [1] 期现行情 Futures - The PP2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,491 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,624 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,624 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 2.43%. The open interest increased by 18,459 lots to 486,782 lots [2] Spot - Most PP spot prices in various regions rose. The wire drawing was reported at 6,200 - 6,630 yuan/ton [5] 基本面跟踪 - Supply: On January 22, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard grade wire drawing rose to around 29% [7] - Demand: As of the week of January 16, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, dropped 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [7] - Inventory: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Thursday decreased by 10,000 tons to 540,000 tons week - on - week, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemicals had good inventory reduction in the first and middle ten - days of January, but the reduction has been average recently. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [7] 原料端原油 - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $65/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $785/ton week - on - week [8]

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply of hot-rolled coils is contracting while demand is resilient, with an overall tight balance between supply and demand. Pre-holiday winter stockpiling is an important support for current demand. Total social inventory is decreasing month-on-month, and the pressure on factory inventory is controllable. The overall inventory risk has marginally improved, but it is still relatively high year-on-year. Attention should be paid to the impact of the post-holiday resumption of work and production on supply and demand. The tight balance between supply and demand and inventory depletion support prices. In the future, attention should be paid to raw material costs and the strength of post-holiday demand recovery. From a technical perspective, pay attention to the support around the 30-day moving average, and maintain a cautiously bullish outlook [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: On Thursday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 4,160 lots, with a trading volume of 241,486 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,281 yuan, and the high was 3,296 yuan. The price fluctuated and stabilized during the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it briefly retraced to the support around the 30-day moving average and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pressure around the 10-day moving average. It closed at 3,287 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24% [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a major region, was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -7 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 29,500 tons month-on-month to 3.0541 million tons, and decreased by 172,300 tons year-on-year. The output decline month-on-month and a significant year-on-year decrease reflect that steel mills' capacity utilization has converged, possibly affected by maintenance schedules and profit fluctuations, which supports prices [4] - **Demand**: As of January 22, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 42,000 tons month-on-month to 3.0996 million tons, and increased by 73,900 tons year-on-year. Although the demand decreased slightly month-on-month, it maintained year-on-year growth. Pre-holiday stockpiling supported demand, and overall demand showed strong resilience [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the total inventory decreased by 45,500 tons month-on-month to 3.5778 million tons (social inventory decreased by 46,600 tons month-on-month, and steel mill inventory increased by 1,100 tons). Year-on-year, it increased by 212,700 tons (social inventory increased by 241,800 tons year-on-year, and steel mill inventory decreased by 29,100 tons year-on-year). The total inventory decreased month-on-month, and the inventory pressure was marginally relieved. The year-on-year increase indicates that the inventory accumulation rate this year is slightly faster than last year, but the overall risk is controllable [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Addressing involutionary competition in depth was listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial for prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Decrease in supply output, expectation of the start of winter stockpiling demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [6] - **Bearish factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 22 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周四持仓量增仓 5016 手，成交量相比上 一交易日缩量，成交量 615894 手。呈现止跌企稳，日均线跌破 5 日均线，10 日均线支撑，30 日均线，60 日均线，但在 3100 整数关口附近企稳，最低 3112，最高 3135，收于 3124 元/吨，上涨 11 元/吨，涨幅 0.35%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3270 元/吨， 相比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 146 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面 冬储有一定性价比。 二、基本面数据 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 1 月 22 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比上升 9.25 万吨至 199.55 万吨，公历同比上升 25.42 万吨，产量本周同比增幅显著，反应钢 厂复产动能加快，短期压制价格，后续需要继续关注产能恢复力度能否持 续。 四、短期观点总结 当下螺纹供给端复产动能较强，需求端受节前冬储备货有支撑存在韧性，节后还 需要关注终端需求的恢复程度，总库和 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first quarter, there is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point. It is recommended to continue to focus on the idea of buying after a decline, but the upside space will also be restricted by downstream demand. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state, and it is prone to a low - level rebound in the overall rhythm. Pay attention to the sentiment change due to recent macro news [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 21, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 43.83 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.78%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 23.83 million tons, a slight increase of 0.05 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 145.75 million tons, an increase of 2.22 million tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.36 million tons, while that in South China increased by 3.58 million tons. The port inventory slightly accumulated this week, with 19.80 million tons of visible foreign vessels unloaded during the period, and two vessels still being unloaded not yet counted. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 86.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38%. The MTO plant of Zhejiang Xingxing entered a shutdown state, and some enterprises were still operating at reduced loads, causing the industry's operating rate to continue to decline passively [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study, formulate and introduce an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030. Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest subsidy policy for small, medium and micro enterprises, set up a special guarantee plan quota of 500 billion yuan for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumption loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures rebounded intraday, and the 60 - day moving average at the daily - line level provided effective support. There is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. Continue to focus on the idea of buying after a decline, but the upside space will be restricted by downstream demand. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state and is prone to a low - level rebound. Pay attention to the sentiment change due to recent macro news [3]