Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Under the stimulation of export tax rebate cancellation, the 03 - 05 contracts of PVC are expected to show a strong and volatile trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: The PVC开工率 decreased 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. Due to the influence of plants like Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the output decline is currently limited, and the PVC开工率 has not changed much. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the demand from India is limited [4][18]. - Demand side: In winter, the downstream PVC开工率 decreased 0.11 percentage points week - on - week. The downstream product orders are poor, and the willingness to actively stock up is low. January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream buyers resist high prices, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average [4]. - Export: Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, there has been a rush to export. Last week, PVC export orders increased significantly to a recent high. However, as export prices rise, the resistance to transactions is increasing. Attention should be paid to the February quotation from Formosa Plastics in Taiwan [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 15th, PVC social inventory increased 2.70% week - on - week to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level [25]. - Real estate: In 2025 from January to December, the real estate market was still in the adjustment stage. The year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas was still large, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion further decreased. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to rebound week - on - week but was still at the lowest level in recent years. The improvement of the real estate market still takes time [4][24]. - Macro - environment: In December, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rose to the expansion range. The draft for comments on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi was released, and the Ministry of Finance pre - allocated the quotas for trade - in and "two - major" projects in 2026. The macro - environment was positive, boosting the sentiment in the commodity market [4]. 3.2 PVC Basis - The current basis for the 05 contract is - 253 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [13]. 3.3 PVC Operating Rate - Affected by plants such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC weekly operating rate decreased 0.04 percentage points to 79.63%, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years [18]. 3.4 Real Estate Data - In 2025 from January to December, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%; the residential sales area decreased 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased 13.0%. The new construction area of houses was 587.7 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the new construction area of residential houses was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The completion area of houses was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; the completion area of residential houses was 428.3 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. - As of the week of January 18th, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded 6.20% week - on - week and was at the lowest level in recent years [24]. 3.5 PVC Inventory - As of the week of January 15th, PVC social inventory increased 2.70% week - on - week to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and was still at a high level (Longzhong increased the social storage capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [25][26].

研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年1月19日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 行情分析 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升1.8个百分点至27.2%，较去年同期高了0.2个百分点，处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯 数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青 下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青开工环比下跌2个百分点至15%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华东地区主力炼厂复产， 供应有所增加，其出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加6.32%至22.36万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比继续上升， 仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。美国突袭委内瑞拉并逮捕马杜罗引发地缘政治局势动荡，与影响国内原油不同，委内瑞拉重油是 国内地炼重要的低价原料，而此次美国军事袭击之下，委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，特朗普 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the near term due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern, shorter downstream order cycles, and reduced downstream product profits. The L - PP spread is expected to decline as new plastic production capacity has been put into operation recently, with a higher plastic operating rate than PP, and continuous decline in agricultural film orders [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Plastic operating rate dropped to around 85% (neutral), while PP operating rate rose to around 81% (slightly below neutral). As of the week of January 16th, PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, and PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53%. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. The easing of the Iran situation led to a decline in crude oil prices. New production capacities have been put into operation for both PE and PP. With continuous decline in agricultural film and plastic weaving orders, and approaching the Spring Festival, downstream operating rates are expected to decline. Although the macro - environment is positive, the supply - demand pattern of polyolefins has limited improvement, and they are expected to fluctuate in a range [3] Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to around 85% due to new maintenance devices such as Guoneng Yulin LDPE, and is currently at a neutral level. PP operating rate increased by 2 percentage points to around 81% as maintenance devices like Jingbo Polyolefin Line 2 restarted, and is at a slightly below - neutral level [12] Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of January 16th, PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, and PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53%. The plastic - weaving operating rate of the main downstream of PP decreased by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6%, and plastic - weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [18] Plastic Basis - The basis of the 05 contract rose to 135 yuan/ton due to the supplementary increase in spot prices, and is at a relatively low - neutral level [22] Plastic and PP Inventory - The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons to 490,000 tons, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory reduction has been good after the New Year's Day, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [26]

冠通期货研究报告 --原油周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年01月19日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 EIA月报将2026年WTI原油价格上调0.79美元/桶至52.21美元/桶；将2026年全球石油需求从此前预测的1.052亿桶/日下调至 1.048亿桶/日，将2026年全球石油产量从此前预测的1.074亿桶/日上调至1.077亿桶/日。 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。原油需求淡季，EIA数 据显示，美国原油库存超预期累库，同时汽油库存增幅超预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量小幅减少，仍位于历史最高 位附近。特朗普警告，如果印度不按美方要求限制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提高对印度产品征收的关税。印度在2025年12月 对俄原油进口已跌至三年低点，较6月峰值下降三分之一。欧美成品油裂解价差低迷，美联储12月议息会议尘埃落定 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market has experienced a short - term adjustment. The dollar index has strengthened recently, cooling the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market, and the copper futures market has also corrected. The market's expectation of a copper supply shortage outside the US has eased, and the demand forecast has been significantly revised downwards, resulting in a temporary lack of growth momentum for copper. However, the copper fundamentals remain tight. Short - term weak demand does not represent the overall strong demand, and there is a downward trend in the mining and smelting sectors. With the continuous implementation of domestic growth - stabilizing policies, copper is mainly in a phased correction [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro - aspect**: In December, the US CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month as expected, and the core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected, increasing the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in April. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the short term, and the dollar has strengthened recently. The domestic central bank has lowered the re - lending rate for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 0.25 percentage points since January 19. The annual RMB loans increased by 16.27 trillion yuan, and M2 increased by 8.5% year - on - year [2]. - **Supply - aspect**: Trump decided not to impose tariffs on rare earths, lithium, and other key minerals. Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, narrowing smelter profits and weakening spot processing fees. Smelters plan to cut production this year. The production of refined copper is expected to decline in January, with 5 smelters planning to stop production and 1 planned smelter delaying its commissioning. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates and increased losses of smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper, but both upstream and downstream are cautious, and raw material procurement volume is poor [2]. - **Demand - aspect**: Downstream copper buyers have low enthusiasm, leading to a significant increase in copper inventory. The terminal new - energy market performs poorly, with retail sales of new - energy vehicles from January 1 to 11 being 117,000 units, a 38% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in 2025 and a 67% decline compared to the same period in December 2025. However, short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend. Policy subsidies and the upcoming New Year small peak season are expected to improve production and sales. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises are on holiday, and copper product buyers are cautious [2]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly. The weekly high was 105,650 yuan/ton, the low was 100,060 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 5.51%, and the range increase/decrease was - 0.63% [4]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of January 19, the average spot premium/discount in East China was - 100 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 85 yuan/ton. Domestic copper inventory continues to accumulate, and the spot remains at a discount. With downstream enterprises about to enter the holiday period, procurement demand slows down, and it is expected to continue trading at a discount [9]. 3.4 London Copper Spread Structure - As of January 16, LME copper fell 0.5% during the week, closing at $12,925/ton, with a spot premium of $75/ton [14]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - In November 2025, China imported 2.526 million tons of copper ore and concentrates; from January to November, the import volume was 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. It is expected that in December 2025, China will import 2.6 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, with an annual import volume of 30.26 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.43% and an expected increase of 2.094 million physical tons. The new collective - agreement negotiation at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile is at a standstill, and the strike continues to affect copper production [19]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply - In November 2025, the scrap - copper import volume was 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.92%; from January to November, the cumulative scrap - copper import volume was 2.104 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. According to SMM data, the operating rate of recycled copper rods this week was 13.52%, an increase of 0.53% from last week. After the Shanghai copper price corrected last week, recycled - copper enterprises made low - price purchases to fulfill historical orders. With the shortage of copper concentrates and increased losses of smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper, but both upstream and downstream are cautious, and raw material procurement volume is poor [24]. 3.7 Smelter Fees - As of January 16, the domestic spot rough - smelting fee (TC) was - 46.6 dollars/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.84 cents/pound, with TC/RC fees remaining weakly stable. Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, narrowing smelter profits. The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) announced that its members will jointly cut production by more than 10% in 2026. On December 19, Chinese copper - smelter representatives and international mining giant Antofagasta finalized the 2026 copper - concentrate long - term processing fee (Benchmark) at $0/ton and $0 cents/pound, a historic "zero" compared to $21.25/ton and 2.125 cents/pound in 2025 [28]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply - In December, SMM's Chinese electrolytic - copper production increased by 75,000 tons month - on - month, an increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. From January to December, the cumulative production increased by 1.372 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.38%. After some smelters stopped production earlier, they gradually resumed production this month. The production of refined copper is expected to decline in January, with 5 smelters planning to stop production and 1 planned smelter delaying its commissioning. According to customs data, in November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products; from January to November, the import volume was 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [32]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of November 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 1.2681 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from the previous month [36]. 3.10 Sub - industry Production Forecast - Mysteel predicts that in January 2026, the开工 rate of sample copper - tube enterprises will slightly increase, with a production of about 147,500 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 63.66%, a month - on - month increase of 2.07%. The expected production of domestic electrolytic copper foil is 108,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83%. The expected copper - rod 开工 rate will drop to 51.31%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.62 percentage points [40]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of November 2025, the national cumulative power - generation installed capacity was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. Among them, the solar - power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; the wind - power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%; the hydropower installed capacity was 440 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 3%; and the nuclear - power installed capacity was 60 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 7.6% [44]. 3.12 Real - Estate and Infrastructure Data - According to National Bureau of Statistics data, in December, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 93.99 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 39.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.58%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 880.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 44.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.24% [50]. 3.13 Automobile/New - Energy Automobile Industry Data - In the new - energy passenger - vehicle sector, from January 1 to 11, retail sales were 117,000 units, a 38% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in 2025 and a significant 67% decline compared to the same period in December 2025. However, short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend. Policy subsidies and the upcoming New Year small peak season are expected to improve production and sales. Since January 1, 2026, the vehicle purchase tax has changed from exemption to half - collection. On December 30, the "Notice on Implementing the Policy of Large - Scale Equipment Upgrades and Consumer Goods Trade - ins in 2026" was issued, stating that the "trade - in" subsidies for heavy trucks and buses will continue, with the subsidy scope and standards remaining the same as in 2025. The subsidy for passenger cars has changed from a fixed - amount subsidy to a proportional subsidy, with the subsidy ceiling unchanged, and the subsidy amount for low - price cars has decreased, which will offset part of the decline caused by the increase in purchase tax [56]. 3.14 Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - As of January 16, LME copper inventory increased by 4,600 tons to 143,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.83%. COMEX copper inventory was 542,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.78% and a year - on - year increase of 465.67%. Trump's statement last week that he will temporarily not impose tariffs on other key minerals has postponed the collection of refined - copper tariffs, weakening the siphon effect on US copper, but COMEX copper inventory still increased. On January 15, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 117,500 tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased as some warehouse goods left the port for export and a few enterprises imported through processing manuals. As of January 16, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 160,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41%; the cathode - copper inventory was 213,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.26%, showing a significant inventory - accumulation trend [61][66].

Report Investment Rating - The short-term outlook for the glass industry is volatile and weak [1] Core Viewpoint - Although the short-term macro sentiment has slightly improved, the demand forecast for glass from the real estate sector continues to decline. It is expected that glass prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is advisable. Attention should be paid to macro policy changes and production line cold repairs [4] Market行情回顾 Summary Futures Market - The main glass futures contract weakened within the day. The 120-minute Bollinger Bands showed an open trumpet shape, indicating a short-term weakening trend. The intraday pressure was near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, and support was near the previous low. Trading volume decreased by 257,000 lots from the previous day, while open interest increased by 30,993 lots. The intraday high was 1,115, the low was 1,065, and the closing price was 1,070, down 32 yuan/ton or 2.9% from the previous settlement price [1] Spot Market - In North China, the market was sluggish, with flexible transactions and individual prices down 10 yuan/ton. In East China, it was stable but weak, and shipments in Shandong were restricted by snow. In Central China, there was little change, and the wait-and-see sentiment was strong. In South China, a small number of prices were raised, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [1] Basis - The spot price in North China was 1,020, with a basis of -50 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data Summary Supply - As of January 15th, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0523 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.65% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.28%. The industry's average operating rate was 71.38%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.58%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.49%. There were no production line shutdowns or ignitions this week. One previously ignited production line started producing glass, and combined with the recovery of some production line loads, the daily output increased slightly [2] Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million weight boxes, a week-on-week decrease of 2.505 million weight boxes, or 4.51%, and a year-on-year increase of 20.89%. The equivalent inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is on a downward trend, and most regions are driven by sales policies, improved market sentiment, and favorable capacity reduction. The enterprise inventory is transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and there is still an expectation of further decline in the future [2] Demand - The average order days of national deep-processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week-on-week increase of 7.9% and a year-on-year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the order trends of deep-processing enterprises in the north and south are diverging. Orders in the south are slightly increasing, and some orders can last for more than 20 days, while orders in the north and central regions are declining [2] Profit - The weekly average profit of natural gas float glass was -164.40 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 22.00 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of coal gas float glass was -69.01 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 4.82 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of petroleum coke float glass was 3.93 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 9.71 yuan/ton [3] Main Logic Summary - On the supply side, long-term losses in glass production lines are accelerating the exit of some enterprises' production capacity, and there are still plans to cold repair some production lines before the Spring Festival, so there is an expectation of further contraction on the supply side. However, real estate development investment and capital availability have both continued to decline year-on-year, and the completion and new construction of real estate projects are weak, with no improvement in real estate demand. Overall, although the short-term macro sentiment has slightly improved, the demand forecast for glass from the real estate sector continues to decline. It is expected that glass prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term view of the steel industry is an oscillatory pattern with support at the bottom and pressure at the top, maintaining the idea of buying at support levels and participating flexibly [4] Core Viewpoints - The current rebar market is in an oscillatory and weak state. The demand is seasonally weak but winter storage demand is starting. The production is slightly decreasing and at a relatively low level compared to recent years. The inventory is slightly decreasing and at a relatively low position with little pressure. The cost support is decreasing, and the real - estate demand continues the downward cycle, limiting the upside space, while the infrastructure demand may have some resilience [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - Futures price: On Monday, the rebar main contract's open interest decreased by 27,384 lots, and the trading volume shrank compared to the previous trading day, with 1,056,242 lots. The price was oscillatory and weak throughout the day, breaking below the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages in the short - term. It closed at 3,140 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton or 1.04%, with a low of 3,134 and a high of 3,171 [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's rebar HRB400E 20mm was quoted at 3,290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the spot price. The large basis provided some support, and there was a certain cost - effectiveness for the winter storage on the futures market [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week of January 15, the rebar production decreased by 0.74 million tons week - on - week to 1.903 billion tons, starting to decline slightly after four consecutive weeks of increase. It was 2.99 million tons lower year - on - year in the Gregorian calendar. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, down 0.47 percentage points week - on - week and up 1.66 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, down 0.56 percentage points week - on - week and up 1.20 percentage points year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, up 2.17 percentage points week - on - week and down 10.39 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average pig iron output was 2.2801 billion tons, down 1.49 million tons week - on - week. The current production was still relatively low compared to recent years, providing some support for the price [2] - Demand side: The apparent consumption rebounded, indicating that winter storage might have started. As of the week of January 15, the apparent consumption increased by 15.38 million tons week - on - week to 1.9034 billion tons, and was 5.19 million tons higher year - on - year. After three consecutive weeks of decline, the apparent consumption rebounded significantly, suggesting the start of winter storage demand [2] Inventory situation - The total inventory decreased slightly by 0.04 million tons week - on - week to 4.3807 billion tons as of the week of January 15. The social inventory was 2.9541 billion tons, up 5.23 million tons week - on - week but still at a low level in recent years, and the steel mill inventory was 1.4266 billion tons, down 5.27 million tons. The accumulation of social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, and the reduction of steel mill inventory indicated that traders had a certain amount of winter storage [3] Macroeconomic situation - The central economic meeting proposed to use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aimed to stabilize the real - estate market, control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to local conditions, and encourage the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - economic expectation was moderately positive. The 15th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality". Macroscopically, the incremental demand was relatively limited, but the loose cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The inventory was at a three - year low, the supply side was cutting production to avoid excessive competition, production capacity was strictly controlled, policies supported demand, the demand would marginally improve after the Spring Festival, and the macro - economic expectation was loose [4] - Bearish factors: The inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival might exceed expectations, the de - stocking speed would slow down, the blast furnace restart would accelerate, the winter storage demand was cautious, the real - estate demand continued to decline, exports were restricted, and the economic recovery was weak [4] Short - term View Summary - After the accident at Baotou Steel over the weekend, the futures market rose slightly in the morning session, but the real - estate data released today continued to decline, and the market weakened again. Currently, the rebar demand was seasonally weak, but the data released last week showed an increase, indicating that winter storage demand was starting. The production decreased slightly and was at a relatively low level compared to recent years. The anti - excessive competition policy was expected to shrink production capacity, providing downward support. The inventory decreased slightly and was at a relatively low level with little pressure. In terms of cost, iron ore prices fell sharply today, port inventory was high, and coking coal and coke prices were weak, reducing cost support. The real - estate demand continued the downward cycle, with limited incremental demand, restricting the upside space. However, infrastructure demand might have some resilience. In the short - term, the price broke below the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages, and in the medium - term, support should be watched at the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. Currently, the market was in an oscillatory pattern with support at the bottom and pressure at the top. It was advisable to maintain the idea of buying at support levels and participate flexibly [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on January 19, 2026, with some commodities rising and others falling. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends affected by various factors such as policies, geopolitical events, and seasonal factors [5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper declined. Although there is short - term demand slump, the copper fundamentals remain tight. With the decline in mining and smelting, and the continuous implementation of domestic stable - growth policies, the price is in a stage of correction [8][10]. - **Silver and Gold**: Shanghai silver and gold futures rose, with significant capital inflows into their relevant contracts [5][6]. - **Tin**: Shanghai tin futures fell by more than 5% [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It showed a downward trend overall. Despite supply - side disturbances, the strong demand for exports keeps the overall situation strong, but one should be cautious about market sentiment [11]. - **Iron Ore**: It fell by nearly 3%, and there was significant capital outflow from its relevant contracts [5][6]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintained the production plan, and the market is in a supply - surplus pattern. With geopolitical risks in the Middle East and other regions, the price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is at a low level, and the demand will further slow down. Affected by the situation in Venezuela, the price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to use the reverse spread strategy [14]. Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern improvement is limited. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - **Plastic**: The开工 rate has increased, but the downstream demand is decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17][18]. - **PVC**: The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. With the impact of export policies, the 03 - 05 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly [19]. Others - **Coking Coal**: The price decline has slowed down. With the increase in winter storage, the market is expected to improve [20]. - **Urea**: The price declined. Although the supply is stable, the downstream procurement has not kept up with the futures price increase. With the approaching of the spring plowing season, it is recommended to go long on dips [21][22]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The performance of different stock index futures varied. The IF and IC contracts rose, while the IH contract fell slightly, and the IM contract rose slightly [5][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year contract remained flat, while the 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year contracts declined [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore market is currently in a state of weak adjustment. Although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. With the futures contract in a back structure and positive basis, the futures are at a discount. In the short - term, it shows a slightly weak oscillation, but the overall downside space is limited [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures Price**: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to fluctuate narrowly during the day, closing at 794 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 2.22% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 396,000 lots, the open interest was 616,000 lots, and the settled funds were 10.766 billion yuan. The futures market is expected to test the support around 780 in the short - term [1]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of mainstream port spot varieties, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port and Super Special powder, both dropped by 8 yuan. The price of the main swap contract was 104.65 (-1.35) US dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 841.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 47.2 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly widened. The iron ore 2 - 5 spread was 16 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 17.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and a positive basis [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The shipping is relatively stable. There may be hurricane and rainfall disturbances in Australia and Brazil. The high - volume shipments in the early stage are arriving at ports one after another. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather disturbances [2]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output decreased month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, and the rigid demand was still supported. Steel mills were in the process of replenishing inventory, but the enthusiasm was still weak, and the game between upstream and downstream was strong [2]. - **Inventory**: The port continued to accumulate inventory, the berthing inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory also accumulated. The overall inventory pressure was still building up. The downstream replenishment demand and market sentiment supported the futures and spot prices [2]. Macro - level - **Overseas**: Consumption provides support, inflation declines, and the Federal Reserve maintains a wait - and - see attitude. The US economy is in a "light to moderate" expansion range, with regional performance differentiation. Employment is mainly for filling vacancies, and labor employment is relatively stable. Price pressure has generally eased, but there are still differences in tariff - related categories [4]. - **Domestic**: Incremental policies are continuously introduced to ensure a good start. The current fundamental reality is still in the off - season, but the incremental policies issued since the fourth quarter have entered a critical period of implementation. The incremental policy statements and the implementation of early - batch projects since January are also expected to continue. The central bank announced a 900 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on January 15 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term oscillatory outlook for coke, with a low - buying strategy [3] Core Viewpoint - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. With the continuous increase in the comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke during the seasonal inventory accumulation period, the overall supply - demand is weak. Although the iron - water output of downstream steel mills is relatively stable and there is still demand resilience in the short - term, the medium - and long - term demand shows a downward trend due to the expanding decline in real estate investment growth. Considering the overall warm macro - atmosphere and the implementation of domestic reserve requirement ratio cuts, the coke market is expected to be mainly oscillatory in the short - term [3] Details from Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Coke Inventory: As of January 16, the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 4.95% month - on - month to 81.81 tons, the inventory of steel mills increased to 650.33 tons, the port inventory increased by 6.41% to 265.07 tons, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 16.31 tons to 997.21 tons, reaching a near 7 - month high and a year - on - year decrease of over 2% [1] - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 65 yuan/ton, with different average profits in various regions. Coke has started the first round of price increase [1] - Downstream Demand: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 78.84%, an increase of 1.66 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate dropped to 85.48%, and the daily average iron - water output decreased by 1.49 tons month - on - month to 228.01 tons, an increase of 3.53 tons year - on - year [1] Upstream Coking Coal - The inventory of coking coal in coal mines decreased by 7.66%, while the inventory of coking coal in independent coking enterprises increased by 5.71% to 1132.85 tons, the inventory of coking coal in steel mills slightly increased to 802.2 tons, and the inventory of imported coking coal in ports continued to increase. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by nearly 2% month - on - month to 2769.85 tons, lower than the previous year's level [2] Macro Information - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year. The national real estate development investment was 82788 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.2% from the previous year. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 659890 million square meters, a decrease of 10.0% from the previous year. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 88101 million square meters, a decrease of 8.7% from the previous year. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 93117 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.4% from the previous year [2] Main Logic - The supply - demand pattern of coke is affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. The comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke continue to rise, and the supply - demand is weak. The iron - water output of downstream steel mills is relatively stable, with short - term demand resilience, but the medium - and long - term demand continues to decline. The macro - atmosphere is warm, and after the domestic reserve requirement ratio cut, the market awaits further policy guidance. It is expected that coke will be mainly oscillatory in the short - term. The previous low of the main coke contract is 1625.5, and the previous high is 1817.5. Attention should be paid to the support at the previous low and the pressure at the previous high [3]