Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is expected to continue its volatile trend, with the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans at a historically high level, which may affect the demand for domestic soybeans [1]. - The corn market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations before the Spring Festival. There is short - term supply pressure, and the upside space is relatively limited, but there are strong buyers when the price is low [2]. - The egg - chicken farming industry has entered a profit - repair stage, but the market has no obvious driving force due to the balance between supply and demand, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish [3]. - The pig supply side is in a stage of capacity optimization and regional reconstruction. In 2026, the pig supply pattern is expected to gradually move towards re - balance, but there will still be short - term structural pressure [3][4][5]. Summary by Related Content Soybean - Northeast soybean spot prices are generally stable, with a tight supply of high - protein soybeans. The price of 39% protein content commercial soybeans is around 2.2 yuan per catty [1]. - Two domestic soybean trading sessions organized by Sinograin last week were fully sold. The market demand has some support, but the high price difference between domestic and imported soybeans may affect the demand for domestic soybeans [1]. Corn - The policy - based grain source release in the domestic corn market has significantly increased. After the Spring Festival, more than 700,000 tons of liquidity were released in the first week [2]. - The initial auction of Sinograin had a low成交 rate, but after reducing the reserve price, the成交 rate increased to 77%, with a small premium [2]. - There is short - term supply pressure, the upside space before the Spring Festival is limited, and it is recommended to view it as wide - range fluctuations. Consider buying on dips if there is a large correction [2]. Egg - As of January 18, the profit per catty of eggs has turned positive to 0.6 yuan, indicating that the egg - chicken farming industry has entered a profit - repair stage [3]. - The price rebound has made farmers hesitant about culling old chickens. The supply is balanced by new additions and delayed culling, and inventory has appeared after the price increase. There is no obvious driving force in the market [3]. Pig - At the end of 2025, the number of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9% compared to the previous year, and it is currently 101.6% of the normal inventory [3]. - In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4% compared to the previous year. The national pig inventory at the end of 2025 was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% compared to the end of the previous year [3]. - The pig supply side is in a stage of capacity optimization and regional reconstruction. In 2026, the supply pattern is expected to gradually move towards re - balance, but there will be short - term structural pressure [4][5].

发布日期：2026 年 1 月 20 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开低走，日内下跌。工厂开始降价吸单，但低价成交依然有 限，现货氛围冷清。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1680-1720 元/吨，低端价格在河南地区。基本面来看，目前暂无装置有停车检 修计划，前期气头停产企业陆续开始复产，供给端虽长期压制价格，但总体稳 定，无过大变量，目前多个数据口径统计日产均 20 万吨附近。下游冬储已过大 半，农需工需环比均好转，复合肥工厂开工及成品库存同步增加，虽目前位于 下游年前备货补货期，但下游实际拿货量少，目前库存下沉过程中，预计年前 开工负荷继续增长有限，大多工厂以销定产为主。本期库存继续去化，一方面 期货行情氛围高涨，下游积极拿货备肥，另一方面，环保预警解除后，下游开 工负荷稳步抬升，库存目前已去化至一百万吨以下，预计随着年前备货的跟 进，尿素将继续去化。今年年前气温已逐渐开始回暖，又临近年前补货，预计 后续拿货有回温，尿素盘面跌势放缓，震荡整理后依然有偏强预期。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1772 元/吨开盘, 低开低走，日内下跌。最 终收于 1775 元/吨，收 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly declined, narrowing smelter profits and weakening spot processing fees. Smelters plan to reduce production this year. Last week, the Shanghai copper price corrected, and recycled copper enterprises made low - price purchases to fulfill historical orders. With the shortage of copper concentrates and increasing losses of smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper, but both upstream and downstream are cautious, and raw material procurement is poor. In January, refined copper production is expected to decline. On the demand side, downstream copper purchasing sentiment is low, leading to a significant increase in copper inventory. The terminal new - energy market performs poorly, but subsequent policy subsidies and the New Year small peak season are expected to improve production and sales. The short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend. The US dollar index has dropped significantly, and market risk - aversion sentiment has pushed up non - ferrous metals, causing Shanghai copper to rise. The long - term fundamentals are in a tight - balance structure, and it is bullish in the medium - to - long - term, with attention on the short - term impact of the macro - environment on copper [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Shanghai copper opened and closed higher today. Since 2026, smelter profits have narrowed, and spot processing fees have weakened. Smelters plan to reduce production this year. In January, refined copper production is expected to decline. Downstream copper purchasing sentiment is low, and the new - energy market performs poorly in the short - term. The US dollar index dropped on January 17, pushing up non - ferrous metals and causing Shanghai copper to rise. The long - term fundamentals are in a tight - balance structure, and it is bullish in the medium - to - long - term [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened and closed higher today. Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 100 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 160 yuan/ton. On January 19, 2026, the LME official price is 12871 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium is + 129 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3. Supply Side - As of January 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 46.2 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.80 cents/pound [5] 3.4. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 148,200 tons, a decrease of 4462 tons from the previous period. As of January 15, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 105,600 tons, a decrease of 5400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 147,400 tons, an increase of 3850 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 542,900 short tons, an increase of 4197 short tons from the previous period [9]

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: January 20, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - As of the close on January 20, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Carbonate lithium hit the daily limit with an 8.99% increase, while coking coal dropped by over 4%. Different futures varieties have different market trends and influencing factors, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and risk control [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: Carbonate lithium hit the daily limit with an 8.99% increase, Shanghai silver and Shanghai tin rose by over 3%, PTA rose by over 2%, and Shanghai gold and palladium rose by nearly 2%. In terms of declines, coking coal dropped by over 4%, coke and glass dropped by over 3%. Stock index futures generally declined, while treasury bond futures generally rose [6][7]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:23 on January 20, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai gold 2604 had an inflow of 7.055 billion yuan, carbonate lithium 2605 had an inflow of 1.34 billion yuan, and CSI 2603 had an inflow of 1.335 billion yuan. Shanghai silver 2604 had an outflow of 1.711 billion yuan, iron ore 2605 had an outflow of 579 million yuan, and live pigs 2603 had an outflow of 365 million yuan [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Copper (Shanghai Copper)**: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher. Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, smelter profits have narrowed, and spot processing fees have weakened further. Refined copper production is expected to decline in January. Downstream demand is weak, but short - term declines do not represent long - term trends. The market is currently in a high - level consolidation stage, and the medium - to - long - term is bullish [9]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium opened low and moved higher, rising nearly 9%. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the daily limit range and margin standards. Although the fundamental trend has weakened, the demand for energy - storage batteries remains strong. The overall situation of carbonate lithium remains bullish, but the authenticity of market rumors needs to be carefully verified [11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan, and the crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern. The EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have increased more than expected. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East, such as the situation in Iran and the US - India relationship regarding oil imports, still affect the market, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The supply side has seen a slight increase in the operating rate, and the expected production in January has decreased. The downstream operating rate has mostly declined, and the inventory rate of asphalt refineries has continued to rise. The situation in Venezuela has affected the supply of heavy - oil raw materials for domestic refineries. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage [15]. - **PP**: The downstream operating rate of PP has declined slightly, and the enterprise operating rate has also decreased. The cost side has been affected by the easing of the Iranian situation and the decline in oil prices. The supply has increased with new capacity coming on stream, and the demand is limited before the Spring Festival. It is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in a range [17]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate of plastic has increased, while the downstream operating rate has declined. The cost side is affected by the Iranian situation, and new capacity has been put into production. With the decline in agricultural film orders, it is expected that plastic will fluctuate weakly in a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18][19]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply - side operating rate is basically stable, and the downstream operating rate has declined. The export has increased due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, but the transaction resistance has increased. The social inventory is still high, and it is expected that the 03 - 05 contracts will fluctuate strongly [20]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal opened low and moved lower. The supply has increased, and the inventory has been transferred from upstream to downstream. The downstream iron - water production has decreased slightly, but the steel mills still have a demand for raw materials during the winter - storage period. The coking coal price has support at the bottom [21][22]. - **Urea**: Urea opened low and moved lower. The supply is stable, and the downstream winter - storage is mostly over. The inventory has been reduced, and it is expected that the urea price will slow down its decline, fluctuate, and then show a bullish trend [23].

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International oil prices rose collectively, with the US crude oil main contract up 0.15% at $59.43 per barrel and the Brent crude oil main contract up 0.08% at $64.18 per barrel [4]. - London base metals rose across the board, with LME tin up 3.87% at $49840.0 per ton, LME nickel up 3.23% at $18145.0 per ton, etc. [4]. - As of 23:00, most domestic futures main contracts fell. Coke, glass, etc. fell more than 2%, while palm oil and PVC rose nearly 1% [4]. - As of 2:30, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 1.35%, the Shanghai silver main contract rose 5.88%, and the SC crude oil main contract fell 0.52% [5]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - In 2025, China's GDP was 1401879 billion yuan, up 5.0% year - on - year. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4% respectively [8]. - The IMF raised China's economic growth rate forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 5% and also raised the forecast for 2026. The world economy is expected to grow 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 [8]. - As of January 19, 2026, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (Europe route) was 1954.19 points, down 0.1% from the previous period [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - In December 2025, China's crude oil imports were 5597000 tons, up 17.4% year - on - year; refined oil imports were 399000 tons, up 21.1% year - on - year; and refined oil exports were 537000 tons, up 43.6% year - on - year [11]. - India's Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd is considering buying Venezuelan oil and stopping importing Russian oil [11]. Metal Futures - In December 2025, China's polysilicon imports were 1873 tons, down 42.8% year - on - year; alumina exports were 210000 tons, up 9.3% year - on - year [14]. - PT Vale Indonesia may face a shortage of mining production quota for its new smelter [14]. - In December 2025, China's primary aluminum output was 3870000 tons, up 3.0% year - on - year; ten non - ferrous metals output was 7210000 tons, up 4.9% year - on - year [14]. - From January 21, 2026, the daily price limit of lithium carbonate futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, and the margin standards for speculative and hedging trades will be adjusted to 13% and 12% respectively [15][43]. - Chile's copper output is expected to peak at 6.06 million tons in 2033 and then slow down to 5.86 million tons in 2034 [16]. Black - series Futures - Yijinhuoluoqi Dongbo Coal Mine was ordered to suspend production for 2 days due to major safety hazards [19]. - From January 12 - 18, 2026, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 28977000 tons, a decrease of 1173000 tons from the previous period [19]. - In 2025, real estate development enterprises' funds in place decreased by 13.4% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 10.0% year - on - year, and new commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year - on - year [20]. - In December 2025, China's crude steel output was 68.18 million tons, down 10.3% year - on - year; coal output was 437.03 million tons, down 1.0% year - on - year [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - The new China - Canada economic and trade agreement is a positive development for Canadian rapeseed growers, but key details need clarification [22]. - It is expected that the average price of palm oil in 2026 will be 4125 ringgit per ton, down 2.55% year - on - year; Malaysia's output will be 19.75 million tons, down 2.61% year - on - year; and Indonesia's output will reach a record 51.2 million tons, up 0.39% year - on - year [24]. - In 2025, China's total grain output was 714.88 million tons, up 1.2% year - on - year; pig, cattle, sheep, and poultry meat output was 100.72 million tons, up 4.2% year - on - year [24]. - In January, the arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased. The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills was below 2 million tons, and the monthly crushing volume is expected to be about 8 million tons [24]. - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 2%, slightly higher than 1.7% in the same period last year [25]. - It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will be 105 million tons, and the total supply will reach 183.79 million tons, up 5% year - on - year [25]. 3. Financial Market Financial - The Supreme People's Procuratorate deployed to safeguard economic and financial security and punish securities crimes [29]. - On Monday, the A - share market had a narrow - range oscillation, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.29% at 4114 points [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.05% to 26563.9 points [29]. - A total of 451 A - share listed companies disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, with 156 pre - announcing good news [30]. - Insurance funds' investment preferences may affect the market style, and the AI and non - ferrous metal sectors have investment opportunities [32]. - Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau fined and banned "Jinyongrong" from the securities market for market manipulation [32]. - A fund manager's different operations between personal and fund accounts have sparked controversy [32]. - Rumors about false accounts for Hong Kong stock IPO subscriptions are untrue [32]. - Yunbao Intelligence launched its A - share IPO process, aiming to be the first domestic DPU stock [33]. Industry - Five departments jointly deployed the construction of zero - carbon factories, aiming to cultivate them in multiple industries by 2027 and expand to traditional high - energy - consuming industries by 2030 [34]. - In December 2025, housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities generally declined month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened [34]. - China successfully launched the 19th group of satellite Internet low - orbit satellites [35]. - Domestic refined oil prices are expected to rise on January 21, 2026 [36]. - Micron Technology warned of a shortage of memory chips due to the surging demand for high - end semiconductors in AI infrastructure [36]. - High - end spirits demand has shrunk, leading to inventory backlogs and production shutdowns in the industry [36]. Overseas - The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3% and also raised the forecasts for China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan [37]. - The EU will hold an emergency summit to discuss Trump's tariff measures and consider counter - measures [37]. - Germany restarted electric vehicle purchase subsidies of 1500 - 6000 euros, open to all car manufacturers [38]. - Japanese Prime Minister Takamori Sanae will dissolve the House of Representatives on January 23, 2026 [38]. - Ueno Zoo in Tokyo will return the giant panda twins "Xiaoxiao" and "Leilei" to China [39]. International Stock Markets - European stock markets fell across the board, with the German DAX index down 1.34%, the French CAC40 index down 1.78%, and the UK FTSE 100 index down 0.39% [40]. - Asian stock markets had a mixed performance. The Japanese market had a "double - kill" of stocks and bonds, while the South Korean Composite Index hit a new high [40]. - Norway's central bank investment management company significantly reduced its holdings of London small and medium - cap stocks [40]. - US investor Elliott opposed Toyota Industries' privatization proposal [41]. Commodity - The price limit and margin standards of lithium carbonate futures contracts on the GZEX will be adjusted from January 21, 2026 [43]. - International oil prices rose, and London base metals also increased [43]. Bond - The domestic bond market was weak, with most treasury bond futures closing down [44]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 54 points to 6.9636 at 16:30 on Monday [45]. - The US dollar index fell 0.32% to 99.05, and non - US currencies mostly rose [47]. - Hedge funds increased their short positions on the yen before the Japanese election [47]. - JPMorgan Chase downgraded the ratings of emerging market currencies and the South African rand [47]. 4. Upcoming Events - There will be 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due in the Chinese central bank's open market at 09:20 [49]. - Press conferences will be held by the State Council Information Office at 10:00 and 15:00 [49]. - Executives from BlackRock, the EU Commission, the UK Treasury, Canada, etc. will speak at the World Economic Forum [49]. - The 40th AAAI Artificial Intelligence Conference and the 2026 Alibaba Cloud PolarDB Developer Conference will be held [49]. - Netflix and 3M will release their financial reports [49].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Data - China's GDP in 2025 was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase from the previous year. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 93,347 billion, 499,653 billion, and 808,879 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4% [3]. - The IMF raised China's 2025 economic growth rate by 0.2 percentage points to 5% and also raised the 2026 growth forecast. The world economy is expected to grow 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 [3]. - In 2025, the funds available to real - estate development enterprises were 931.17 billion yuan, a 13.4% decrease from the previous year. The construction area was 6,598.9 million square meters, a 10.0% decrease, and the sales area of new commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, an 8.7% decrease [4]. Group 2: Commodity Market Regulations - Starting from the settlement on January 21, 2026, the daily limit for lithium carbonate futures contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be adjusted to 11%. The margin for speculative trading will be 13%, and for hedging trading, it will be 12% [3]. Group 3: Key Commodities and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on include silver, coking coal, coke, styrene, and rapeseed oil [5]. - Night - trading performance: The precious metals sector had a 36.45% increase, non - metallic building materials 2.02%, oils and fats 7.87%, soft commodities 2.69%, non - ferrous metals 25.25%, coal - coking - steel - ore 9.75%, energy 2.21%, chemicals 9.63%, grains 1.14%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.99% [5]. Group 4: Major Asset Performance Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29%, the SSE 50 fell 0.12%, the CSI 300 rose 0.05%, and the CSI 500 rose 0.67% on a daily basis. Their monthly and annual growth rates were 3.66% and 3.66% for the Shanghai Composite Index, 1.48% and 1.48% for the SSE 50, 2.26% and 2.26% for the CSI 300, and 11.02% and 11.02% for the CSI 500 respectively [7]. - Overseas indices such as the S&P 500 had no change, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.05%, the German DAX fell 1.34%, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.65%, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.39% on a daily basis [7]. Fixed - income - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.02%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had no change on a daily basis [7]. Commodities - The CRB commodity index had no change, WTI crude oil rose 0.19%, London spot gold rose 1.58%, LME copper rose 1.44%, and the Wind commodity index rose 2.91% on a daily basis [7]. Others - The US dollar index fell 0.33%, and the CBOE volatility index had no change on a daily basis [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint In 2025, facing complex changes in the domestic and international economic environment, China's national economy withstood pressure, moved forward, and achieved new results in high - quality development under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee and the implementation of various policies, successfully fulfilling the main goals and tasks of economic and social development and concluding the "14th Five - Year Plan" victoriously [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Macroeconomic Data - **GDP**: The annual GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase at constant prices. The added values of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4% respectively. Quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4. The Q4 GDP increased by 1.2% quarter - on - quarter [5]. - **Industry**: The annual added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.9%. The added values of the mining, manufacturing, and power sectors increased by 5.6%, 6.4%, and 2.3% respectively. The added values of equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing increased by 9.2% and 9.4% respectively. In December, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month [5]. - **Services**: The annual service industry added value increased by 5.4%. In December, the service industry production index increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The business activity index and business expectation index of the service industry increased in December [6]. - **Consumption**: The annual total retail sales of consumer goods were 501,202 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase. Online retail sales increased by 8.6%. In December, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year - on - year and decreased by 0.12% month - on - month. The annual service retail sales increased by 5.5% [7]. - **Investment**: The annual fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 485,186 billion yuan, a 3.8% decrease. Real estate development investment decreased by 17.2%. In December, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.13% month - on - month [8]. - **Import and Export**: The annual total goods import and export volume was 454,687 billion yuan, a 3.8% increase. Exports were 269,892 billion yuan, a 6.1% increase, and imports were 184,795 billion yuan, a 0.5% increase. In December, the total import and export volume increased by 4.9% year - on - year [9]. - **Prices**: The annual CPI was flat compared to the previous year. The core CPI increased by 0.7%. The annual PPI decreased by 2.6%, and the annual purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 3.0% [10]. - **Employment**: The annual average urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%. In December, it was 5.1%. The total number of migrant workers increased by 0.5% [11]. - **Income**: The annual per - capita disposable income of national residents was 43,377 yuan, a 5.0% nominal increase. After deducting price factors, the real growth was also 5.0%. The per - capita consumption expenditure increased by 4.4% [12]. - **Population**: The year - end national population was 1,404.89 million, a decrease of 3.39 million. The birth rate was 5.63‰, the death rate was 8.04‰, and the natural growth rate was - 2.41‰. The urbanization rate was 67.89%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points [13]. Economic Growth and Business Climate Index No specific summary content other than the index names such as GDP quarterly growth rate, sub - industry GDP growth rate, and PMI index is provided [16]. Industrial Production No specific summary content other than the names of indicators such as industrial added value, power generation, steel production, coal production, railway freight volume, and Keqiang Index is provided [18]. Import and Export No specific summary content other than the names of indicators such as import and export amounts, growth rates, main export country growth rates, and export quantity and price indices is provided [23]. Investment No specific summary content other than the names of indicators such as real estate investment, infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate - related indicators is provided [25]. Consumption No specific summary content other than the names of indicators such as total retail sales of consumer goods, automobile and petroleum product retail sales, furniture and building decoration material retail sales, and per - capita disposable income is provided [26]. Finance No specific summary content other than the names of indicators such as M1 and M2 growth rates, M2 - M1 growth rate difference and CPI, loan and social financing total, and corporate and household medium - and long - term loan amounts is provided [32]. Inflation No specific summary content other than the names of indicators such as CPI, PPI, and prices of pork and vegetables is provided [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downstream procurement and fertilizer preparation cannot keep up with the continuous upward movement of the futures market. The spot market drags down the futures price. Although the snow and rain weather affects the fertilizer preparation process in North China, the approaching spring plowing limits the downward adjustment of the futures price. It is recommended to go long on dips [2]. - Currently, the supply and demand of urea are both strong, and the overall trend of urea is expected to be bullish [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Spot Market Dynamics - The market trading atmosphere has weakened. Factories are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and some factories have started to reduce prices to attract orders after digesting their orders. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei range from 1690 to 1730 yuan/ton [2][4][5]. 3.2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures market had fluctuations. As of January 19, the main May contract of urea closed at 1772 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the settlement price on January 12. The weekly trading volume was 1461.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.04 million tons, and the open interest was 759.64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26.73 million tons [7]. - Since mid - December, due to off - season storage, exports, and gas - head production cuts, the futures price has continuously risen. After reaching a high of 1820 yuan/ton last Thursday, it is in a technical correction. The basis has strengthened, and as of January 19, the 05 - contract basis was - 22 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 21 yuan/ton. The number of urea warehouse receipts was 13,355, a week - on - week increase of 155 [7][9]. 3.3. Urea Supply End - Last week, the weekly urea production increased. From January 8 to January 14, the weekly urea production was 1.4051 billion tons, an increase of 33.5 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.44%. The average daily production was 200,700 tons. Coal - based production increased by 1.66%, and gas - based production increased by 7.96%. Small - particle production increased by 3.59%, and large - particle production decreased by 1.87%. It is expected that 3 - 5 enterprises will resume production in the next cycle. As of January 19, the national daily urea production was 202,800 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 83.57% [14]. - In the raw material market, the cold air in the northern region is expected to increase coal consumption, strengthening cost support. As of January 12, the price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal Q5500 was 704 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2 yuan/ton; the price of washed small anthracite in Jincheng was 900 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 10 yuan/ton. The price of domestic liquefied natural gas increased by 5.18% week - on - week. The price of synthetic ammonia increased, and the price of methanol remained flat [16][17]. 3.4. Urea Demand End - As of January 19, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The cost of compound fertilizer is strongly supported. The operating rate and finished - product inventory of compound fertilizer factories have increased simultaneously, but the actual downstream purchases are small. It is expected that the pre - holiday operating load will have limited growth, and most factories produce based on sales. As of January 16, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 40.08%, a month - on - month increase of 2.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.16% [20]. - From January 10 to January 16, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.18%, an increase of 7.83 percentage points from the previous period and 3.95 percentage points higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the melamine operating rate will continue to rise [20]. - As of January 16, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.53% and 643,400 tons lower than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 129,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous week. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline [21]. 3.5. International Market - International urea prices continue to rise due to the Iran geopolitical conflict. The market is skeptical about the resumption of plant production, and China is expected not to over - open exports under the background of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the first quarter. As the global urea demand period approaches, international urea prices are bullish [23]. - As of January 19, the FOB prices of small - particle and large - particle urea in different regions have increased to varying degrees, with some prices remaining unchanged [23][25].

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1750 1760 -10 河南 1750 1760 -10 山东 1750 1770 -20 山西 1640 1640 0 江苏 1760 1770 -10 安徽 1760 1770 -10 黑龙江 1780 1780 0 内蒙古 1790 1790 0 河北东光 1730 1740 -10 山东华鲁 1740 1740 0 江苏灵谷 1800 1800 0 安徽昊源 1720 1730 -10 山东05基差 -41 -74 33 山东01基差 -12 -44 32 河北05基差 -41 -74 33 河北01基差 -12 -44 32 1-5价差 85 95 -10 5-9价差 29 30 -1 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 13355 13355 0 中东FOB 411.5 403.5 8 美湾FOB 406.5 393.5 13 埃及FOB 452.5 452.5 0 波罗的海FOB 395 380 15 巴西CFR 427.5 420 8 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past week, capital markets advanced amidst fluctuations with divergent trends. Geopolitical tensions overseas continued to drive up investors' risk - aversion, pushing gold to a new record high, while the US stock market was desensitized to geopolitical issues and more focused on corporate earnings. Global stock markets generally rose, commodity trends diverged, A - shares fluctuated and diverged, and the BDI index dropped significantly. The US dollar regained strength, and the RMB remained stable and strong [5][10]. - The domestic bond market rebounded, stock indices fluctuated with mixed results, and commodity sectors regained their divergent patterns. The growth - style stocks outperformed value - style stocks. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of 14.29%, with 4 out of 10 commodity sub - indices rising and 6 falling. Precious metals remained strong, non - ferrous metals continued to rise, energy rebounded, and grains had a small increase, while other sectors declined, with agricultural products, black commodities, and chemicals leading the decline [5][16]. - The market expects the Fed to maintain the interest rate at 3.5 - 3.75% with a probability of 95.4% in January, and there is still an expected 1 - 2 times of interest rate cuts in 2026 [6][67]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - Capital markets showed divergent trends. Overseas, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Iran) and the US's intention towards Greenland increased investors' risk - aversion, driving up gold prices. The US stock market focused on corporate earnings, with the VIX index rebounding and most risk assets rising. Global stocks generally rose, commodities diverged, A - shares fluctuated, and the BDI index dropped. The US dollar strengthened, and the RMB was stable. Commodity sectors also showed divergence, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals performing well, while black commodities and agricultural products were weak [5][10]. - In the domestic market, the bond market rebounded, stock indices had mixed results, and commodity sectors regained their divergence. Growth - style stocks outperformed value - style stocks. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of 14.29%, with 4 sub - indices rising and 6 falling [5][16]. Large - scale Assets - Overseas, geopolitical tensions led to a rise in gold prices due to increased risk - aversion. The US stock market was less affected by geopolitics and more focused on corporate earnings. Global stocks generally rose, commodities diverged, A - shares fluctuated, and the BDI index dropped. The US dollar strengthened, and the RMB was stable. Commodity sectors had divergent trends, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals strong, and black commodities and agricultural products weak [5][10]. Sector Updates - The domestic bond market rebounded, stock indices had mixed results, and commodity sectors regained their divergence. Growth - style stocks outperformed value - style stocks. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of 14.29%, with 4 sub - indices rising and 6 falling. Precious metals remained strong, non - ferrous metals continued to rise, energy rebounded, and grains had a small increase, while other sectors declined, with agricultural products, black commodities, and chemicals leading the decline [16]. Fund Flows - Last week, the commodity futures market saw a significant overall inflow of funds. The precious metals sector had the most obvious inflow, while the soft commodities sector had the most significant outflow [19]. Variety Performance - In the past week, most domestic major commodity futures declined. The top - rising commodity futures were Shanghai silver, Shanghai tin, and styrene. The top - falling ones were the shipping index, caustic soda, and palladium [22]. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index stopped falling and rebounded. The volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and the Nanhua Commodity Index both increased. Most commodity futures sectors saw an increase in volatility, with energy and grains having significant volatility reduction, and non - ferrous metals and soft commodities having notable volatility increases [25]. Data Tracking - Internationally, major commodities had mixed results. The BDI index dropped significantly, the CRB index had a small decline, soybeans rebounded, corn rose sharply, copper fell, oil rose, and gold and silver both increased, with the gold - silver ratio reaching a new low [27][28]. - Domestically, the asphalt production rate rebounded from a low level, real - estate sales remained weak, freight rates diverged, and short - term capital interest rates fluctuated upwards [42]. Macroeconomic Logic - Stock indices fluctuated, corrected, and showed divergence, with little change in valuation. The risk premium ERP was at a one - year low. Growth stocks outperformed value - style stocks [30][31]. - Commodity price indices rose and then fell, and inflation expectations rebounded strongly [34]. - The "fund seesaw" effect between stocks and commodities and the price difference between domestic and international commodities were analyzed. Last week, stocks fluctuated and declined, commodities showed divergence, and the commodity - stock return difference generally increased. The Nanhua Commodity Index and the CRB Commodity Index both fell from high levels, with domestic - priced commodities weakening and international - priced commodities performing strongly, and the price difference between domestic and international commodities changed little [37][40]. - US Treasury yields rebounded across the board, the term structure steepened bearishly, the term spread rebounded from a low level, real interest rates were under pressure, and gold prices rose to a new high [50]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" was strong, the Citi Economic Surprise Index rebounded, and the 10Y - 3M spread of US Treasuries widened significantly and then fluctuated within a narrow range [59]. Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The CME's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate at 3.5 - 3.75% in January remains unchanged at 95.4%, and the probability of a 25bp cut to 3.25 - 3.5% remains at 4.6%. The market expects 1 - 2 times of interest rate cuts in 2026 [6][67]. China's 2025 Import and Export Data - In December 2025, China's exports were $357.8 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6% (previous value 5.9%), and imports were $243.6 billion, with a growth rate of 5.7% (previous value 1.9%). The trade surplus was $114.14 billion (previous value $111.68 billion). For the whole year of 2025, exports grew by 5.5% (previous value 5.8%), imports had a growth rate of 0% (previous value 1%), and the trade surplus was $1.19 trillion (previous value $992.6 billion). Exports to ASEAN grew by 13.4%, to Europe by 8.4%, and to Japan by 3.5% year - on - year, while exports to the US dropped significantly, with a year - on - year decline of 20% [68]. China's 2025 Macroeconomic Data - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase compared to the previous year at constant prices. The added value of the primary industry was 933.47 billion yuan (up 3.9%), the secondary industry was 4,996.53 billion yuan (up 4.5%), and the tertiary industry was 8,088.79 billion yuan (up 5.4%). Quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second quarter, 4.8% in the third quarter, and 4.5% in the fourth quarter. The fourth - quarter GDP had a 1.2% quarter - on - quarter growth [75]. This Week's Focus - Monday (January 19): China's 2025 full - year GDP growth rate, 2025 full - year GDP total, December social consumer goods retail sales year - on - year, December industrial added value of large - scale industries year - on - year, Eurozone December CPI annual rate final value, Canada December CPI monthly rate, US stock market closed for one day [82]. - Tuesday (January 20): China's one - year loan prime rate as of January 20, Germany's December PPI monthly rate, UK's December unemployment rate, Eurozone's November seasonally - adjusted current account, Eurozone's January ZEW economic sentiment index, EU Commission President von der Leyen's speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting [82]. - Wednesday (January 21): UK's December CPI monthly rate, UK's December retail price index monthly rate, US's November building permit total, US's December pending home sales index monthly rate, IEA's monthly crude oil market report, US President Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting [82]. - Thursday (January 22): US's API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 16, Australia's December seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate, US's initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17, US's November core PCE price index annual rate, US's November personal spending monthly rate, US's November core PCE price index monthly rate, US's EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending January 16, European Central Bank's December monetary policy meeting minutes, Turkish Central Bank's interest rate decision [82]. - Friday (January 23): US's EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending January 16, Japan's December core CPI annual rate, UK's December seasonally - adjusted retail sales monthly rate, Eurozone's January manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Canada's November retail sales monthly rate, US's January University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value, US's January one - year inflation rate expectation final value, Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and economic outlook report, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo's monetary policy press conference [82].