Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report In the short term, although sentiment is slightly supported by macro news, considering the intensifying industrial contradiction of supply surplus, it is advisable to adopt the strategy of shorting on rebounds. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro policies, and market sentiment changes in the future [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main contract of soda ash opened lower and moved lower, showing a weak and volatile trend during the day. The three tracks of the 120 - minute Bollinger Bands opened downward, indicating a short - term weak and volatile signal. The intraday pressure was near the 20 - day moving average of the daily line, and the support was near the lower track of the Bollinger Bands. The trading volume decreased by 127,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 19,651 lots. The intraday high was 1179, the low was 1161, and the closing price was 1163, down 19 yuan/ton (1.61% decline) compared with the previous settlement price [1]. - **Spot market**: It showed a stable and slightly volatile trend. The enterprise equipment had minor adjustments, Jiangsu Debang resumed operation, production increased, and the supply remained at a high level. Downstream demand was mediocre, the purchasing sentiment was poor, and the demand was mainly for low - price and essential needs [1]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 87 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons (2.88% increase). Among them, the light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,400 tons; the heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, compared with 84.39% last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.43%. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 89.47%, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% [2]. - **Inventory**: As of January 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5442 million tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons (1.96% decline) compared with last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 822,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,400 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 721,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,400 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate was 99.70%, a month - on - month increase of 21.52 percentage points. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, while the essential demand for heavy soda ash weakened due to the cold repair of glass production lines [2]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to an increase in costs [3]. Main Logic Summary The current capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains at a high level, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output continues to increase. There is still an expectation of cold repair of glass production lines near the end of the month, and the essential demand for soda ash may further weaken. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of pure benzene has marginally improved, and the futures market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but due to the long upper shadow line of the closing K - line, there is a risk of correction. The short - term trend of styrene is strong, but also with a long upper shadow line at the close, and it is necessary to be cautious of a correction. Overall, a cautious bullish view is maintained. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes due to frequent macro news [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - The 300,000 - ton/year styrene plant of Tangshan Xuyang had a malfunction and stopped production. The inventory is mainly for contract delivery, and there is no external quotation for now [1] - From January 10th to 16th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.12% to 74.26% compared with the previous period, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene decreased by 4.07% to 57.59% [1] - From January 10th to 16th, the weighted operating rate of the downstream of pure benzene increased by 2.14% to 74.50% [1] - As of January 19th, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports was 297,000 tons, a decrease of 8.33% compared with last week [1] - From January 9th to 15th, the profit of petroleum benzene was 369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study, formulate and introduce an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [2] - Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises, set up a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan quota for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumption loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The supply - demand of pure benzene has marginally improved, and the futures market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but due to the long upper shadow line of the closing K - line, there is a risk of correction [3] - The short - term trend of styrene is strong, but also with a long upper shadow line at the close, and it is necessary to be cautious of a correction. It has just broken through the 60 - day moving average on the weekly K - line and then pulled back. The trend near the pressure level should be continuously monitored, and an overall cautious bullish view is maintained. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes due to frequent macro news [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is expected to experience a sideways downward trend, with the 03 - 05 contracts expected to show a relatively strong sideways movement under the stimulus of the cancellation of export tax rebates [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points week - on - week, with poor orders for downstream products and low willingness to stock up actively. Due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, there was a rush to export, and last week's PVC export orders increased significantly to a recent high. However, as export prices rose, the resistance to transactions increased. The social inventory continued to increase and remained high, with significant inventory pressure. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement of the real estate market still takes time. The macro - sentiment has subsided, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the operating expectations of some production enterprises have decreased, but the current production decline is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and moved downward in a sideways manner, with a minimum price of 4,708 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,807 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4,743 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.33%. The position volume increased by 34,620 lots to 1,071,654 lots [2] Basis - On January 21, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region fell to 4,530 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,743 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 213 yuan/ton, strengthening by 14 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by plants such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year of Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of 2025. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua plant was in trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion have further decreased. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The sales area of commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%; the sales area of residential housing decreased by 9.2%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 13.0%. The new construction area of housing was 587.70 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the new construction area of residential housing was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The construction area of housing by real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The completion area of housing was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; the completion area of residential housing was 428.30 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. As of the week of January 18, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 6.20% week - on - week, at the lowest level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of January 15, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.70% week - on - week to 1.1441 million tons, a 48.60% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and remained high [6]

Group 1: Hot News - The People's Bank of China kept the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively, remaining unchanged for eight consecutive months [3] - Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that this year, the NDRC will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, creating new demand with new supply and providing strong innovation measures and factor guarantees [3] - On January 20, Liao Min, Deputy Minister of Finance, stated at a press conference that in 2026, the fiscal department will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, summarized as "increasing in total, better in structure, more effective, and stronger in momentum." The fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure in 2026 will be maintained at necessary levels to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases" and the protection of key areas "only strengthens"[3] - US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said that the interest rates are too high. If the interest rates are lowered by 100 basis points, the US economic growth rate will reach 6% or higher [3] Group 2: Key Concerns - Key commodities to focus on include silver, coking coal, coke, glass, and soda ash [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - Non-metallic building materials had a night session increase of 2.00%, precious metals 37.37%, oilseeds and oils 7.92%, soft commodities 2.70%, non-ferrous metals 24.49%, coal, coking, and steel minerals 9.70%, energy 2.17%, chemicals 9.61%, grains 1.13%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.91% [4] Group 4: Category Asset Performance - In equities, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of -0.01%, a monthly increase of 3.65%, and a year-to-date increase of 3.65; the S&P 500 had a daily decline of -2.06%, a monthly decline of -0.71%, and a year-to-date decline of -0.71 [6] - In fixed income, the 10-year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.13%, a monthly increase of 0.30%, and a year-to-date increase of 0.30; the 5-year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.11%, and a year-to-date increase of 0.11 [6] - In commodities, the CRB Commodity Index had a daily increase of 1.42%, a monthly increase of 2.53%, and a year-to-date increase of 2.53; WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.67%, a monthly increase of 3.76%, and a year-to-date increase of 3.76 [6] - In other assets, the US Dollar Index had a daily decline of -0.51%, a monthly increase of 0.28%, and a year-to-date increase of 0.28; the CBOE Volatility Index had a daily increase of 0.00%, a monthly increase of 26.02%, and a year-to-date increase of 26.02 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of international futures, important domestic and foreign macro - economic information, financial market conditions including stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, and upcoming events and data announcements. It reflects the complex and dynamic nature of the global financial and economic situation, with various factors such as policy changes, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand relationships influencing different markets. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.98% at $4769.10 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.19% at $94.46 per ounce [4]. - The main contract of US crude oil rose 0.15% to $59.52 per barrel, while the main contract of Brent crude oil fell 0.06% to $63.9 per barrel. Most London base metals declined, except for tin which rose [5]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively for eight consecutive months [8]. - China's National Development and Reform Commission will formulate an implementation plan for the domestic demand expansion strategy from 2026 - 2030 [8]. - In 2026, China's Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy [8]. - US Commerce Secretary said high interest rates are a problem and a 100 - basis - point rate cut could boost economic growth to 6% or higher [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - On January 20, 24:00, domestic refined oil prices were raised for the first time in 2026, with gasoline and diesel prices increasing by 85 yuan per ton [11]. - Qinghai Province reduced the potassium chloride production capacity of Golmud Zangge Potassium Fertilizer Co., Ltd. from 2 million tons to 1.2 million tons [11]. - China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber in December 2025 increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [12]. Metal Futures - In December, China's lithium carbonate imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to December increased slightly [14]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Trading Center adjusted the trading margin ratios and price limit ranges of multiple metal futures contracts [14][15]. - Shanghai released a plan to enhance the level of non - ferrous metal commodities, including opening up more futures and options varieties and exploring cross - border delivery mechanisms [15]. - Poland's central bank plans to purchase up to 150 tons of gold to increase its gold reserves to 700 tons [16]. - Rio Tinto's aluminum and copper production in 2025 exceeded the guidance range [16]. Black - Series Futures - BHP's Pilbara iron ore production and sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and its 2026 fiscal year production guidance remained unchanged [18]. - Some areas in Henan Province launched a heavy - pollution weather orange alert [18]. - China's crude steel production decreased in December 2025 and for the whole year of 2025 [18]. - The first batch of 200,000 tons of high - grade iron ore from Guinea's Simandou project arrived in China, and the project is expected to export 18 million tons in 2026 [19][20]. Agricultural Product Futures - As of January 17, the average operating rate of domestic oil mills decreased, and the total soybean crushing volume decreased [22]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 increased, according to different survey institutions [23][24]. - Brazil's expected exports of soybeans, corn, and other agricultural products in January increased [24]. - The US soybean export inspection volume decreased in the week ending January 15 [24]. Financial Market Finance - On Tuesday, the A - share market adjusted, with a style shift from high - valuation growth sectors to value sectors. The trading volume increased [27]. - The Hong Kong stock market continued to adjust, with technology stocks leading the decline. Southbound funds had net purchases [27]. - More than 500 A - share companies disclosed their 2025 performance pre - announcements, with some sectors performing well and others under pressure [27]. - In 2025, the quantitative index - enhancement strategy in the A - share market was outstanding, and the average return of related products was 45.08% [28]. - Goldman Sachs expects China's stock market growth in 2026 to be driven by corporate earnings, with a significant acceleration in profit growth [28]. Industry - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China aims to improve water - saving efficiency and expand the water - saving industry [30]. - China adjusted the rules of lottery games, with a new cap on the total first - prize payout [30]. - Domestic refined oil prices were raised for the first time in 2026 [30]. - The National Medical Insurance Administration issued a guide for price setting of medical innovation achievements [30]. - Beijing announced its 2026 construction land supply plan [31]. - Guangzhou is promoting housing renovation legislation and has a large - scale urban village renovation investment plan [31]. - The global AI server shipments are expected to grow by more than 28% in 2026 [31]. - The Chinese U23 men's football team advanced to the final of the Asian Cup [32]. Overseas - US President Trump mentioned alternative measures for tariffs if the current ones are restricted [33]. - The US Treasury Secretary said Trump is close to nominating the next Fed Chairman [33]. - The European Parliament froze the approval process of a trade agreement with the US [33]. - Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on French wine and champagne [34]. - Canada simulated a US military invasion [34]. - South Korea will postpone a large - scale US investment plan due to currency pressure [36]. International Stock Markets - US major stock indexes fell, with market risk - aversion rising due to Trump's remarks on tariffs and Greenland [37]. - European major stock indexes closed lower, affected by US policy uncertainty, weak economic data, and geopolitical risks [37]. - Most Asian - Pacific stock indexes declined, with different reasons for each market [38]. - FTSE Russell is considering lowering the free - float ratio requirement for foreign - registered companies in London [38]. - South Korea's stock exchange CEO expects the Korean stock market to continue rising [38]. - South Korea's government will provide tax incentives for domestic reinvestment of overseas stock sale proceeds [40]. - Netflix changed the payment terms for its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery's business to all - cash [40]. - AstraZeneca will transfer its listing from NASDAQ to the New York Stock Exchange [41]. Commodities - The domestic commodity futures market had mixed results, with lithium carbonate hitting the daily limit and some metals showing significant price movements [42]. - Shanghai released measures to enhance the influence of non - ferrous metal commodities [42]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai International Energy Trading Center adjusted margin ratios and price limits of metal futures [42]. - International precious metal prices rose, driven by risk - aversion and policy expectations [42]. - Oil prices had mixed performance, with supply expectations affecting the market [44]. - Most London base metals declined, except for tin [44]. - The LME copper spot price soared, indicating potential high demand for physical delivery [44]. - Poland's central bank plans to buy gold [45]. Bonds - China's bond market showed positive signs, with yields of some bonds falling [45]. - US bond yields rose across the board [45]. - Japan's finance minister tried to calm the bond market [47]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar rose, and the RMB central parity rate was also adjusted upwards [48]. - The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [48]. Upcoming Data and Events - There are multiple important economic data announcements from the UK and the US at different times on January 21 [50]. - There are various events including central bank operations, press conferences, and international forums on January 21 and the following days [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously bullish outlook on hot-rolled coils [6] Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. The weekly环比apparent consumption has rebounded, and the year-on-year performance is still strong. The demand in the off-season has strong resilience. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. Although the total inventory is relatively high and there is some pressure, it has been continuously de-stocked recently. If this trend continues, the pressure will be relieved. The 05 contract of hot-rolled coils decreased in position and volume today, and there is still a possibility of further weakening. Attention should be paid to the support at the previous low point [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Tuesday, the position of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased by 15,864 lots, and the trading volume was 471,822 lots, showing a contraction compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,275 yuan, and the high was 3,307 yuan. It decreased in position and price during the day, breaking below the 5-day and 60-day moving averages, and closed at 3,276 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan or 0.97% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was 4 yuan, close to parity [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils increased by 28,500 tons to 3.0836 million tons compared to the previous week. Year-on-year, it decreased by 118,300 tons. Production has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, some steel mills allocating molten iron from building materials to plates, and the end of annual maintenance in steel mills with increased resumption of production. The follow-up increase in supply needs to be observed [4] - **Demand**: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 58,200 tons to 3.1416 million tons compared to the previous week. The apparent consumption rebounded significantly this week, and year-on-year, it increased by 5,100 tons. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating that demand still has resilience [4] - **Inventory**: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 58,000 tons to 3.6233 million tons compared to the previous week (the social inventory decreased by 50,100 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 7,900 tons). The total inventory continued to be de-stocked, indicating that the current demand for hot-rolled coils has resilience. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years. If the de-stocking trend can continue, the pressure on prices will decrease [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will cause fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involution competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts are being made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] Market Driving Factors Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply-side production, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace material [6] - **Bearish Factors**: The resumption of production in steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The plastics industry is expected to experience a weakening oscillatory trend in the near - term, with the L - PP spread likely to decline due to new production capacity, higher plastics operating rates compared to PP, and continuous decline in agricultural film orders [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 20, the restart of Shanghai Petrochemical's overhauled units led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 91%, a moderately high level. As of the week ending January 16, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The easing of the Iran situation caused a drop in crude oil prices. New production capacity has been put into operation recently, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, with limited pre - holiday stocking [1][4] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract decreased by 0.90% to close at 6640 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9748 lots in open interest to 495212 lots [2] - Spot: Most prices in the PE spot market declined, with LLDPE at 6650 - 6970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8900 - 9210 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6870 - 8290 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 20, the restart of Shanghai Petrochemical's overhauled units raised the plastics operating rate to about 91%, a moderately high level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending January 16, the PE downstream operating rate dropped to 40.93%, with agricultural film orders and raw material inventory decreasing, and packaging film orders slightly declining [4] - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory on Tuesday was 560,000 tons, the same as the previous day and 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January but average recently, at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $64 per barrel, and the Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian ethylene prices remained unchanged at $710 and $700 per ton respectively [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that glass prices may remain weakly oscillating in the short - term, suggesting a strategy of shorting on rebounds. It attributes this to the potential contraction of supply due to some production lines' cold - repair plans, but the demand decline in the real - estate sector is expected to be more significant, with the contraction of production capacity possibly falling short of the demand drop. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **期货市场**：The glass futures main contract oscillated downward during the day, showing a short - term weakly oscillating signal. The trading volume decreased by 7.1 million lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 6,499 lots. The intraday high was 1,072, the low was 1,055, and the closing price was 1,056, down 34 yuan/ton or 3.12% from the previous settlement price [1]. - **现货市场**：The market in North China was sluggish with weak transactions; in East China, it was stable, with improved shipments in Shandong but restricted shipments in Anhui due to snow; in Central China, there was little fluctuation and weak shipments due to weather; in South China, it was stable, with downstream rush - work but average inventory - stocking willingness [1]. - **基差**：The spot price in North China was 1,020, with a basis of - 36 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - **供应方面**：As of January 15, the weekly total output of float glass was 1.0523 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The industry average start - up rate was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. There was no production line water - release or ignition this week, but one previously ignited production line started producing glass, and with the load recovery of some production lines, the daily output increased slightly [2]. - **库存方面**：The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes or 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is on a downward trend, and there is still an expectation of further decline [2]. - **需求方面**：The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the order trends of deep - processing enterprises in the north and south regions are diverging, with an increase in the executable order days in the south and a decline in the north and central regions [2][3]. - **利润方面**：The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 164.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.00 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 69.01 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.82 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 3.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71 yuan/ton [3]. Main Logic Summary The long - term losses of glass production lines are accelerating the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity, and there are still cold - repair plans for some production lines before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to contract further. However, the real - estate development investment and funds in place continue to decline year - on - year, and the real - estate demand has not improved. Overall, the real - estate data continues to decline, glass factory orders are limited, and the market's rigid demand is accelerating to weaken at the end of the month. Although there are still cold - repair expectations for a few production lines, the contraction of production capacity may be less than the decline in demand. It is advisable to short on rebounds. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：溢价回落，注意支撑 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 20 日 棉花：宏观层面，央行释放后续降息降准信号， 国常会重点提及促消费， 短暂提振市场情绪。产业层面，新年度新疆植棉面积减少预期炒作已逐步被消化， 春节前纺企存在一定补库需求，布厂订单走弱有传导至纺企的趋势，对棉价支撑 力度有所走弱。不过全球产量调减，需求调增，期末库存下降。下方空间相对有 限，短期偏调整看待为主。 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于棉花信息网、沐甜科技、 泛糖科技、金十期货网站。 本报告发布机构 --冠通期货股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的期货交易咨询业务资格） 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任 何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 白糖：2025/26 榨季截至 1 月 17 日，泰国累计甘蔗入榨量为 2926.43 万吨， 较去年同期的 3487.99 万吨减少 561.56 万吨，降幅 16.09%；甘蔗含糖 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core View of the Report - The coking coal market is under pressure. The futures price of coking coal opened lower and moved lower intraday. Although the downstream steel mills still have the expectation of resuming production during the winter storage period and are expected to increase the procurement of raw materials, the explosion accident at Baogang Plate Factory in Inner Mongolia may have an impact on the market, and it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent impact of the accident. At present, China still releases a signal of stable growth, so there is support below the coking coal price [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The coking coal futures opened lower and moved lower intraday. On the supply side, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 88.47%, a month - on - month increase of 3.13%. After the resumption of work, the inventory of coking coal mines decreased significantly, with a week - on - week decrease of 22.64 tons. The coking enterprises increased their inventory by 61.17 tons, and the steel mills increased their inventory by 4.47 tons. The downstream molten iron output decreased by 0.47% month - on - month, with a weekly output of 228.01 tons. The steel mills still have the expectation of resuming production, and the procurement of raw materials is expected to increase. Pay attention to the subsequent impact of the explosion accident at Baogang Plate Factory in Inner Mongolia [1] Spot Data - In the Shanxi market (Jiexiu), the mainstream price was 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking raw coal was 1045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main contract futures was 1124 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 146 yuan/ton, an increase of 50.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] Fundamental Tracking Supply Data - From January 9th to January 16th, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 88.47%, a month - on - month increase of 3.13 percentage points; the daily output of clean coking coal was 76.85 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.42 tons [3] Demand Data - From January 9th to January 16th, the daily output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 63.45 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 tons; the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 46.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 tons; the daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 228.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.49 tons [5]