【冠通研究】 【策略分析】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1736 元/吨低开低走，最终收于 1720 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-1.09%，持仓量 244734 手（-977 手）。前二十名主力持仓 席位来看，多头+3146 手，空头-585 手。其中，东证期货净多单增加 4908 手、 银河期货净多单减少 1747 手；方正中期净空单增加 3887 手；国泰君安净空单减 少 3050 手。 2025 年 6 月 6 日，尿素仓单数量 6069 张，环比上个交易日-288 张，其中辽 宁佳时-119 张，中原大化-25 张，眉山新都-135 张。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 连续下跌，关注反弹机会 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 6 日 今日尿素价格日内低开低走，日内继续走低。上游工厂价格出现分化，承 接出口订单企业价格保持坚挺，未承接出口企业销售压力明显。基本面来看， 供应端今日日产维持不变，多个统计口径日产均位于 20 万吨以上，限制上方空 间。需求端，目前整体偏弱势，正值麦收阶段，农需采购零星跟进，未阶段性 集中补货，复合肥工厂开工 ...

【冠通研究】 期现共振上行，仍需关注需求边际转弱 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 6 日 【策略分析】 沪铜今日高开低走日内上行。5 月 31 日当周，初请失业金人数增加 8000 人至 24.7 万人，远超经济学家预期的 23.5 万人。美国 5 月 ADP 就业人数增加 3.7 万人，为自 2023 年 3 月以来的最低水平，远逊预期的 11.4 万人，前值为 6.2 万人，美国经济数据 疲软，业内增加对美联储降息的概率。5 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量环比增加 1.26 万吨，升 幅为 1.12%，同比上升 12.86%。截止 5 月 30 日，我国现货粗炼费(TC)-43.45 美元/干 吨，RC 费用-4.34 美分/磅，TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但下滑幅度明显放缓。国内精炼 铜产量维持高位，同比增速大幅增加，位于历年同期高位水平，目前市场对铜供应紧张 预期尚未兑现，实质供应尚未减弱。需求方面，国内 PMI 数据向好，并且淡季需求韧性 强，对铜价提供支撑，本月需求承接力度将继续走弱。目前铜价依然在宽幅区间震荡， 主要影响因素为宏观环境变化，基本面除需求短期边际走弱步入淡季外，暂无明显变 化，虽需求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal futures market will show a volatile trend as the upward drive has weakened after the previous rally [3]. - The overall trend of urea is bearish, and attention should be paid to the short - term support from subsequent agricultural demand release and exports [4][5]. - Copper prices are oscillating in a wide range. With terminal demand support and supply shortage expectations, the amplitude is limited, and the progress of copper tariffs should be monitored [9][10]. - Crude oil prices have rebounded but still face downward pressure due to factors such as supply pressure and trade war concerns [11][13]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it gradually enters the peak season [14]. - PP is expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as high inventory pressure and slow downstream recovery [15][16]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term because of high inventory and slow new order follow - up [17]. - PVC is in a weak oscillation state as the demand has not improved substantially and the inventory pressure is large [18][19]. - The negative feedback of lithium carbonate continues. Although there may be a technical rebound in the short - term, the fundamental weakness remains unchanged, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. - For coking coal, short - term rebound signs appear, but the long - term bearish trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to reduce short positions and wait and see [21][22]. - Rebar prices may decline if demand does not improve substantially, as the "supply - demand double - weak, insufficient cost support" pattern remains unchanged [23]. - Hot - rolled coil prices lack upward momentum, and there is a risk of trend - based decline after the sentiment fades [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on June 5, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Coking coal and Shanghai tin rose more than 1%, while alumina and urea fell nearly 3% [7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:26, CSI 1000 2506, CSI 500 2506, and Shanghai gold 2508 had capital inflows, while crude oil 2507, lithium carbonate 2507, and apple 2510 had capital outflows [7]. 3.2 Specific Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The 09 contract of soybean meal opened higher and oscillated, with a closing increase of 0.68%. The estimated soybean planting area in the US is 84 million acres, a 3.4% decrease from the previous year. The domestic soybean inventory increased by 3.97% week - on - week and 20.45% year - on - year, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 44.03% week - on - week but decreased by 65.19% year - on - year [3]. 3.2.2 Urea - Urea prices opened low and dropped nearly 3% during the day. The supply side has a daily output of over 200,000 tons, and the demand side is in the wheat harvest stage with sporadic agricultural demand and a decline in the compound fertilizer factory's operating rate [4][5]. 3.2.3 Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and was under pressure. The supply is expected to be tight, but the actual supply has not weakened. The demand is supported by good domestic PMI data and strong off - season demand resilience. Copper prices are oscillating, and the progress of copper tariffs should be monitored [9][10]. 3.2.4 Crude Oil - In June, crude oil prices rebounded due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and supply disruptions. However, supply pressure remains high, and there is still downward pressure on prices [11][13]. 3.2.5 Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased to 27.7%, and the expected output in June increased. The downstream operating rate decreased, and the inventory is at a low level. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [14]. 3.2.6 PP - The downstream operating rate of PP decreased to 50.29%. The enterprise operating rate increased to about 84%, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. 3.2.7 Plastic - The plastic operating rate decreased to about 84%, and the downstream operating rate is at a low level. The inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [17]. 3.2.8 PVC - The PVC operating rate increased to 78.19%, and the downstream operating rate is low. The inventory is still high, and it is in a weak oscillation state [18][19]. 3.2.9 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are close to the bottom, but the supply pressure is large, and the demand growth is slow. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. 3.2.10 Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded due to news, but the supply is loose, and the long - term trend is bearish. It is recommended to reduce short positions and wait and see [21][22]. 3.2.11 Rebar - The demand for rebar is in the off - season, and the supply pressure is not relieved. The cost support is insufficient, and there is a risk of price decline [23]. 3.2.12 Hot - rolled Coil - The supply of hot - rolled coil is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory may start to accumulate. Prices lack upward momentum and are at risk of decline [25].

Group 1: Hot News - The number of ADP employed people in the US in May increased by 37,000, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000, with the slowest hiring rate since March 2023. After the data release, US President Trump called for a rate cut by Powell [2]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in May was 49.9, contracting for the first time in nearly a year, lower than the expected 52.0 and the previous value of 51.6 [2]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the application method for general - month hedging position limits for caustic soda, p - xylene, and bottle chips, and raised the combined limits for hedging and speculative positions of 14 varieties such as PTA [2]. - There was a rumor that Mongolia would raise the coal mineral resource tax to 20%, but as of now, there is no official decision on coal - related tax changes [2]. - Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) predicted that Brazil's soybean exports in June would be 12.55 million tons, lower than last year's 13.83 million tons and May's 14.2 million tons. It maintains the outlook of exporting 1.1 billion tons of soybeans in 2025, which would set a new record [2]. - Saudi Arabia hopes that OPEC+ will continue to accelerate oil production increases in the coming months, aiming to regain market share, and wants an increase of at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and possibly September [3]. Group 2: Commodity Market Capital Proportion - The capital proportions of different commodity sectors are: non - metallic building materials 2.57%, precious metals 29.99%, oilseeds 11.62%, soft commodities 2.45%, non - ferrous metals 20.38%, coal - coking - steel - ore 13.59%, energy 2.39%, chemicals 12.81%, grains 1.51%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.69% [4]. Key Attention - Key commodities to focus on are urea, rebar, Shanghai copper, and plastic [6]. Night - session Performance - Information about the night - session performance of commodity futures main contracts includes their price changes and position - increasing ratios [6]. Position Changes - Data shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [7]. Group 3: Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of various equity indices are presented, such as the Shanghai Composite Index with a daily increase of 0.42%, a monthly increase of 0.86%, and an annual increase of 0.73% [9]. Fixed - income - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of different - term treasury bond futures are provided, for example, the 10 - year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.04%, and an annual decrease of 0.15% [9]. Commodity - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of commodities are shown, like the CRB commodity index with a daily decrease of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 2.11%, and an annual decrease of 0.06% [9]. Others - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of the US dollar index and CBOE volatility are given, with the US dollar index having a daily decrease of 0.47%, a monthly decrease of 0.63%, and an annual decrease of 8.91% [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of overnight market trends, important news, and financial market developments across various sectors including commodities, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also includes information on upcoming economic data releases and events. Summary by Categories Overnight Market Trends - Spot gold rebounded due to a weaker dollar, closing up 0.61% at $3373.72 per ounce, while spot silver closed down 0.03% at $34.492 per ounce [2] - International crude oil prices dropped as Saudi Arabia was reported to push for OPEC+ to increase production significantly. WTI crude closed down 1.05% at $62.17 per barrel, and Brent crude closed down 1.15% at $64.67 per barrel [2] - Domestic night - session futures contracts had mixed results. Some commodities like coking coal, coke, and LPG rose, while others like bottle chips, PTA, and caustic soda fell [3] - CBOT agricultural futures mostly rose, with soybeans up 0.36%, wheat up 1.49%, and corn down 0.06% [3] - London base metals had mixed closes, with LME tin up 1.41% and LME copper up 0.11% [4] Important News Macroeconomic News - A US - Canada trade agreement may be reached next week, perhaps before the G7 summit on June 15 [7] - The EU and the US had a constructive trade talk, and they are making progress on tariff negotiations [7] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the application method for hedging positions for some varieties and raised the combined limits for hedging and speculative positions for 14 varieties [7] - The US May ADP private employment report showed only 37,000 new jobs, far below the expected 114,000. Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates [7] - The Fed's Beige Book indicated that economic activity has slightly declined since the last report, and price increases were at a moderate pace [7] Energy and Chemical Futures - Japan's commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories increased in the week ending May 31 [9] - The refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE dropped 13% to a five - month low in the week ending June 2 [11] - US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 4.304 million barrels to 436 million barrels in the week ending May 30, while the strategic petroleum reserve increased by 509,000 barrels [11] - Saudi Arabia hopes OPEC+ to increase oil production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and possibly September [11] Metal Futures - Peru's copper production is expected to increase slightly to 2.8 million tons this year, and mining investment is expected to reach at least $4.8 billion [13] - A North China monomer enterprise started a 15 - day maintenance, which is expected to affect DMC production by about 4,000 tons [14] - An East China lead smelter has复产, but its production is unstable due to environmental inspections. A South China zinc smelter's equipment maintenance is expected to affect production by about 2,000 tons [14] - CZSPT released the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate processing fees for the end of Q3 2025: $80 - $100 per dry ton [14] Black - series Futures - As of now, there is no official decision on Mongolia's coal mineral resource tax increase [17] - In late May, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 4.7% month - on - month [17] - The online auction of Mongolian coking coal on June 4 had all lots go unsold [17] - Some steel mills in Tangshan plan to cut coke prices on June 6 [17] - On June 4, the national building materials social inventory, factory inventory, and production all decreased compared to the previous week [18] - The UK Prime Minister aims to get the US to reduce steel tariffs on the UK to zero [19] Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's May 2025 palm oil inventory is expected to be 2.01 million tons, up 7.74% from April; production is expected to be 1.74 million tons, up 3%; and exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, up 17.9% [21] - Chinese oil mills' soybean crushing volume is expected to reach about 9 million tons in June [23] - As of May 30, CBOT soybean deliverable inventory decreased by 4.70% from the previous week [23] - ICAC's forecast for the 2025/2026 global cotton season remains stable, with production and consumption estimated at about 26 million tons and 25.7 million tons respectively, and trade volume increased to 9.7 million tons [23] - Indonesia's 2024/2025 palm oil production is estimated at 48.8 million tons, and Malaysia's at 19 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous forecast [23] - As of May 28, the national pig price and corn price both decreased, while the pig - to - corn ratio increased [24] - By the end of May, Guangxi's sugar sales and sales rate increased year - on - year [24] - Brazil's June soybean export is estimated at 12.55 million tons, lower than last year and May [24] - The expected US soybean export net sales for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 market years are in the ranges of 10 - 50 million tons and 0 - 10 million tons respectively [25] Financial Markets Stocks - A - share major indices rose, with the brokerage and consumer sectors performing strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.11% [28] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.6%, with nuclear power, pharmaceutical, and consumer stocks performing well [28] - In May 2025, A - share new accounts increased by 22.86% year - on - year but decreased by 19.16% month - on - month [28] - Brokers generally expect the A - share market to perform well in the second half of 2025 and are also optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market [29] - In May, over 60 A - share companies announced share repurchase plans, and nearly 150 companies implemented share repurchases [29] - Since April, the Hong Kong stock market has seen a wave of share repurchases, with the trend continuing in June [30] - This year, the total IPO fundraising in the Hong Kong stock market has exceeded HK$77.6 billion, a more than seven - fold increase from last year [30] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to promote the development of the AI industry and empower new - style industrialization [31] - The National Energy Administration launched the first batch of pilot projects for the construction of a new - style power system [31] - The National Railway Administration is seeking public opinions on the management regulations for the power source system transformation of old - style railway diesel locomotives [32] - Shenzhen released a plan to promote the high - quality development of service trade and digital trade [33] - In May, Shanghai's new - house supply and sales increased significantly [33] - In May, Shenzhen's second - hand housing transactions decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year [34] - Shanghai issued a notice to promote the quality improvement and expansion of infrastructure REITs [34] - The "high - interest, high - rebate" car loan model has been stopped in some areas [34] - In May, the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.24 million, a 38% increase year - on - year [35] Overseas News - The US and Russian presidents discussed the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue in a 75 - minute call [37] - Trump's tariff policy is expected to cut the US deficit by $2.8 trillion in 10 years but may lead to economic contraction and inflation [37] - The Fed's Beige Book shows that the US economic activity has slightly declined, and businesses face cost - increasing pressure from tariffs [37] - US mortgage applications dropped to a five - week low, and the refinancing index also decreased [38] - The Canadian Prime Minister criticized the US steel and aluminum tariffs [38] - The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.75% for the second time, being cautious about the economic outlook [39] - Japan's 2024 birth rate and total fertility rate reached record lows [40] - Australia's Q1 GDP growth was lower than expected [40] - The European Central Bank approved Bulgaria's application to adopt the euro in 2026 [41] International Stocks - US major stock indices had mixed closes, with the Dow down 0.22%, the S&P 500 up 0.01%, and the Nasdaq up 0.32% [42] - Trump's "retaliatory tax" in the "Beautiful Big Bill" may weaken foreign investors' interest in US assets [42] - European stock markets rose for the second day, with the German DAX index hitting a record high [43] - Virgin Australia Airlines plans to raise A$685 million through an IPO [45] Commodities - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold up 0.60% and COMEX silver up 0.06% [46] - International oil prices declined, with US crude down 1.06% and Brent crude down 1.1% [46] - London base metals mostly rose, with LME tin up 1.65%, LME aluminum up 0.95%, and LME copper up 0.16% [46] Bonds - Yields of major domestic inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined, and Treasury bond futures rose [47] - CITIC Securities and China Merchants Securities completed the first batch of bond refinancing book - building on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [49] - European bond yields had mixed movements, and the market expects the ECB to cut interest rates [49] - US bond yields all decreased due to factors such as increased risk - aversion and lower - than - expected PCE inflation [50] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 5 points at the 16:30 close and 207 points in night trading [51] - The US dollar index dropped 0.47% due to weak economic data and increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, while most non - US currencies rose [51]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper price is still oscillating within a wide - range, mainly affected by macro - environment changes. With terminal demand support and a tight supply expectation, the upward and downward amplitudes are limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of copper tariffs and wait for new drivers [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened low, rose, and was under pressure during the day. The weak US economic data pressured the US dollar. The Trump administration doubled steel and aluminum import tariffs to 50% and launched a Section 232 investigation on copper imports, triggering strong expectations of copper tariff policies. The supply is expected to be tight, but the actual supply has not decreased yet. The domestic PMI data is good, and the off - season demand is resilient, supporting the copper price. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has continued to decline since the end of May, confirming the downstream export and demand. The demand has weakened marginally in the short - term and entered the off - season, but there are no obvious changes in the fundamentals [1] Periodic and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Opened high, went low, then high, fluctuated, and closed down, at 78270. The long positions of the top twenty decreased by 2631 to 126036 hands, and the short positions decreased by 1325 to 128264 hands. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 90 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 5 yuan/ton. On June 2, 2025, the LME official price was 9619 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 54.5 dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of May 30, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.45 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.34 cents/pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 31700 tons, a decrease of 246 tons from the previous period. As of May 29, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 52000 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 138000 tons, a slight decrease of 3350 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 185700 short tons, an increase of 1498 short tons from the previous period [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On June 5, 2025, the urea price opened low and moved lower during the day, dropping nearly 3%. The market has a consistent expectation of weak demand, and the overall trend is bearish. Attention should be paid to the short - term support from subsequent agricultural demand release and the export end [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea price opened low and moved lower during the day, with upstream factory prices slightly decreasing and new orders progressing slowly. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The daily production on the supply side remained unchanged, with multiple statistical calibers showing daily production above 200,000 tons, which limits the upside. On the demand side, it is currently the wheat harvest stage, with sporadic agricultural purchases and no concentrated replenishment. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has decreased, and the summer fertilizer production is basically finished. Upstream factories are accumulating inventory, and there may be an opportunity to reduce inventory after the recovery of agricultural demand [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1768 yuan/ton, closed at 1722 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.88%. The position increased by 26,121 hands to 245,711 hands. Among the top twenty main position - holding seats, long positions increased by 12,125 hands and short positions increased by 17,530 hands. On June 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,357, a decrease of 52 compared to the previous trading day [2] Spot - Upstream factory prices are stable with a slight decline, new orders progress slowly, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1790 - 1830 yuan/ton, and the transaction center has slightly moved down [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation decreased, and the futures closing price dropped. Based on Shandong region, the basis of the September contract strengthened compared to the previous trading day, reaching 118 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton) [7] Supply Data - On June 5, 2025, the national urea daily production was 201,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8] Downstream Data - From May 30 to June 5, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.13%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 64.31%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points from the previous week [12]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/04 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.60%报 3376.90 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 0.05%报 34.68 美元/盎司。美国关税政策调整带来的不确定 性使市场对未来经济增长的预期更加复杂，推动避险资产需求。全球重要经济 体如欧盟对美国关税政策表示担忧，进一步加剧了国际贸易的不确定性。 2. 国际油价全线上涨，美油主力合约合约涨 1.31%，报 63.34 美元/桶。布油主 力合约涨 1.47%，报 65.58 美元/桶。分析认为，由于地缘紧张局势，以及强劲 的劳动力市场信号，推动原油价格上涨。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1. 据财新，6 月 3 日公布的 5 月财新中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）录得 48.3， 较 4 月下降 2.1 个百分点，2024 年 10 月来首次跌至临界点以下。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The US accused China of violating the Geneva talks consensus, while China firmly opposed it and urged the US to respect facts and correct wrongdoings [2] - US President Trump raised the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from 00:01 on June 4, 2025, Eastern Time, except for those from the UK which remain at 25% [2] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2] - The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts for the US and the world. The US growth rate in 2025 was cut from 2.2% to 1.6%, and expected to be 1.5% in 2026. The global growth forecast for 2025 dropped to 2.9%, and inflation rose to 3.2% [3] - China's metallurgical - grade alumina production in May 2025 increased by 2.66% month - on - month and 4.06% year - on - year. The actual operating capacity decreased by 0.46% month - on - month, with an operating rate of 77.3%. The average profit in the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton as of May 30 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Commodities to focus on are urea, crude oil, soybean meal, and PVC [4] Group 3: Night - session Performance - Night - session performance of commodity sectors: Non - metallic building materials 2.65%, precious metals 30.82%, energy 2.35%, chemicals 12.74%, grains 1.51%, agricultural and sideline products 2.61%, oilseeds and fats 11.66%, soft commodities 2.38%, non - ferrous metals 19.98%, coking coal and steel ore 13.29% [4][5] Group 4: Asset Performance - Performance of major asset classes: Shanghai Composite Index daily gain 0.43%, monthly gain 0.43%, annual gain 0.30%; S&P 500 daily gain 0.58%, monthly gain 0.99%, annual gain 1.51%; Hang Seng Index daily gain 1.53%, monthly gain 0.96%, annual gain 17.21%; etc [7] - Performance of major commodities: WTI crude oil daily gain 1.36%, monthly gain 4.35%, annual loss 11.89%; London spot gold daily loss 0.83%, monthly gain 1.96%, annual gain 27.77%; etc [7]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 04 日 热点品种 PVC： 上游电石价格多数地区稳定。目前供应端，PVC 开工率环比增加 2.00 个百分点 至 78.19%，PVC 开工率有所增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。上周 PVC 下游开工 略有回落，同比往年仍偏低，采购较为谨慎。印度反倾销政策不利于国内 PVC 的 出口，印度将 BIS 政策再次延期六个月至 2025 年 6 月 24 日执行，中国台湾台塑 6 月份报价上调 10-20 美元/吨，出口高价成交受阻，但低价出口交付较好。另 外，印度即将迎来雨季或限制未来中国 PVC 出口。上周社会库存继续下降，只是 目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025 年 1-4 月份，房地产数据略有改善，只是 同比仍是负数，且新开工与竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，竣工面积同比增速进一步 下降。30 大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比小幅回升，但仍是历年同期偏低水 平，房地产改善仍需时间。春检过半，据统计春检规模不及去年同期，需求未实 质性改善之前 PVC ...