Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends across various sectors, including domestic and international commodity futures, financial markets, and macro - economic news. It shows that market movements are influenced by factors such as trade policies, central bank decisions, and supply - demand dynamics. Summary by Category Overnight Market Trends - Domestic commodity futures night - session mostly rose, with energy - chemicals generally up (e.g., asphalt up 2.42%, PTA up 2.11%), black - series mixed, agricultural products mixed, base metals mixed, and precious metals up (e.g., COMEX gold up 3.60%) [2][55] - International oil prices soared, with WTI up 3.27% and Brent up 3.01%, due to digested OPEC+增产预期 and API inventory decline [3][58] - London base metals mostly rose, affected by global economic policy and supply - demand adjustments [3][58] - CBOT agricultural futures mostly rose, except for soybeans down 0.48% [6][59] Macro - economic News - April's Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 50.4, down 0.8 points from last month, and services PMI fell 1.2 points to 50.7 [8] - The global manufacturing PMI in April was 49.1%, down 0.5 points from last month, indicating increased global economic downward pressure [8] - The US trade deficit in March widened 14% to a record $1405 billion [13][42] Energy and Chemical Futures - Saudi Arabia's price - war strategy may be less effective due to global economic deterioration [15] - Chinese domestic photovoltaic glass kiln capacity increased, reaching 125650 tons per day [18] - Kazakhstan is committed to OPEC+ agreements [19] - The EU plans to stop Russian gas imports by 2027 [19] Metal Futures - SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased to 8.41 tons as of May 6 [21] - Australian lithium concentrate shipments to China rose in late April, and May shipments are expected to be 32 - 38 tons [21] Black - series Futures - Australian and Brazilian major port iron ore inventories reached 1316.8 tons from April 28 - May 4, up 58 tons [23] Agricultural Futures - China's soybean imports are expected to be 1200 tons in May and 1100 tons in June, improving domestic supply [26] - US soybean crushing profit was $2.16 per bushel as of May 2, down 5.3% from a week ago [26] - Malaysian palm oil production increased in April and early May [26][27] - The global cotton market outlook is pessimistic, with production exceeding consumption [27] Financial Markets A - shares - After the May Day holiday, A - shares rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.13%, and over 4900 stocks rising [33] - Some A - share companies were put under risk warning, and some were investigated for late annual report disclosure [36] - CATL passed the HKEX hearing for a Hong Kong listing [36] Hong Kong Stocks - The Hang Seng Index rose 0.7%, and south - bound capital had a net purchase of HK$134.75 billion [33] Overseas Markets - US stocks fell, European stocks were mixed, and Asia - Pacific stocks were mostly stable [48][49] - Google may be required to sell its advertising platforms, and Tesla's European sales declined [49] - DoorDash will acquire Deliveroo for $38.5 billion [50] Commodity Markets - EU plans to end Russian energy dependence by 2027 [59] - India's central bank gold reserves reached 879.59 tons by March, with a 11.7% share in foreign exchange reserves [59] - US API crude inventory decreased by 449.4 barrels last week [60] Bond Markets - The central bank conducted 4050 billion yuan in reverse repurchases on May 6, with a net withdrawal of 6820 billion yuan [63] - Domestic bond futures mostly fell, and international bond yields showed different trends [63][64] - Global debt reached a record $324 trillion in Q1 2025 [64] - Apple issued $45 billion in bonds [64] Foreign Exchange Markets - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 463 points on May 6, and the future trend depends on Sino - US talks and the dollar [67] - The Hong Kong dollar triggered the strong - side convertibility guarantee twice on May 6, and the HKMA injected HK$127.88 billion [67] - The US dollar index fell 0.53% in New York trading [68] Upcoming Events - Multiple financial and corporate events are scheduled, including central bank rate decisions (Fed, Brazil), company earnings announcements, and a national leader's visit [71]

【冠通研究】 沥青：低开震荡 制作日期：2025年5月6日 【策略分析】 观望 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.4个百分点至28.3%，较去年同期高了1.3个百分点，沥青开 工率转而回落，处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，5月份预计排产231.8万吨，环比增加2.9 万吨，增幅为1.3%，同比增加3万吨，增幅为1.3%。上周沥青下游开工率环比提升，其中道路沥青开 工环比增加4.5个百分点至24.5%，开工率提升较快，但仍处于偏低水平。五一节前炼厂复产叠加节 前备货，沥青出货量增加明显，全国出货量环比增加42.42%至29.11万吨，升至中性偏低位。沥青炼 厂库存存货比上周环比继续下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位，南方有降雨间歇影响，沥青实际需 求仍有待恢复。4月16日，美国财政部制裁购买伊朗原油的山东胜星化工，表示要将伊朗的非法石油 出口降至零。美伊第四轮间接谈判推迟，近期美国持续加大对伊朗的制裁，美国最新制裁从事伊朗 石油贸易的实体。关注美国对伊朗原油的制裁是否会放松。随着全球贸易战的恐慌情绪缓解，只是 中美贸易战继续，而且美国只是将对等关税暂缓，全球贸易战阴云仍未散去，美国政策反复，原油 波动较大，供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the crude oil industry as "Continue to decline" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of crude oil is high due to the accelerated production increase of OPEC+ and the high - level US crude oil production, while the demand side is facing problems such as the decline of consumer confidence and the downward adjustment of demand growth expectations by major institutions. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate downward, and it is recommended to partially take profit on previous short positions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - OPEC+ started to gradually relax the production - cut plan in April and increased the daily crude oil supply in May to 411,000 barrels. There are doubts about whether some countries can implement compensatory production cuts. OPEC+ announced that 8 participating countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and may further accelerate production increase in July. If the quota compliance does not improve, OPEC+ plans to gradually cancel the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by October. The US crude oil production is still near the historical high, and other non - OPEC+ countries are also releasing production capacity [1] - The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the negotiation between the US and the EU on tariffs is still far from reaching an agreement. The US consumer confidence index in April fell to the lowest level since the COVID - 19 pandemic. Major crude oil institutions have lowered the global crude oil demand growth expectations. May is the off - season for global crude oil consumption. It is recommended to partially take profit on previous short positions as the crude oil price has fallen near the previous low and the US has imposed new sanctions on entities engaged in Iranian oil trade [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2506 fell 3.69% to 458.9 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 455.0 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 460.5 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 767 to 23,637 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA lowered the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 400,000 barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day, and in 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1 million barrels per day. It also lowered the US crude oil production in 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day to 13.51 million barrels per day. OPEC lowered the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 150,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, and in 2026 by 150,000 barrels per day to 1.28 million barrels per day. IEA lowered the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 730,000 barrels per day [3] - As of the week ending April 25, US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.696 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 4.003 million barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 937,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 682,000 barrels. The overall oil product inventories continued to decrease [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - OPEC's crude oil production in February was revised down by 6,000 barrels per day to 26.854 million barrels per day, and in March 2025, it decreased by 78,000 barrels per day to 26.776 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production cuts in Iraq and Nigeria. The US crude oil production in the week ending April 25 increased by 500 barrels per day to 13.465 million barrels per day, down 166,000 barrels per day from the historical high in early December last year [4] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 19.658 million barrels per day, 1.04% lower than the same period last year. The weekly demand for gasoline decreased by 3.36% to 9.098 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand increased by 3.16% compared with the same period last year. The weekly demand for diesel decreased by 9.04% to 3.55 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand increased by 10.34% compared with the same period last year. The decrease in both gasoline and diesel demand led to an 8.24% decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4]

【冠通研究】 PP：震荡下行 制作日期：2025年5月6日 【策略分析】 区间操作 PP下游整体开工环比继续下降，处于历年同期偏低水平。其中塑编开工率环比下降0.3个百分点 至45.0%，塑编订单小幅回落，略高于前两年同期。美国加征关税不利于PP下游制品出口同时聚丙烯 上游丙烷进口受限。东华能源（茂名）等检修装置重启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至85.5%左右，升至 中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例上涨至31%左右。五一假期，石化早库环比累库16.5万吨至83万吨， 较去年同期低了10万吨，此次假期累库幅度与近年同期相当，石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。 OPEC+增产预期加剧原油市场供应压力，原油价格持续下跌。供应上埃克森惠州两套装置投产放量， 近期检修装置增加较多，下游恢复缓慢，塑编开工继续下降，新增订单有限。4月份，制造业PMI为 49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，预计PP震荡运行。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2509合约增仓震荡下行，最低价6973元/吨，最高价7036元/吨，最终收盘于6995元/吨， 在20日均线下方，跌幅0.95%。持仓量增加35248手至444194手。 现货方面： PP各地区 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The US economy contracted for the first time since 2022 in Q1, with annualized inflation-adjusted GDP down 0.3%, far below the average growth rate of about 3% in the past two years. Net exports dragged GDP by nearly 5 percentage points, and consumer spending grew at only 1.8%, the weakest since mid-2023. Business equipment spending was the only bright spot, growing at an annualized rate of 22.5% [3] - In April, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. Non-manufacturing PMI and composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range. High-tech manufacturing and related industries continued to expand, and manufacturing enterprises focusing on domestic sales had stable production and operations [3] - The US and Ukraine jointly created the Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. The ownership and control of resources in Ukraine remain with Ukraine. The fund will be jointly managed by the two countries with a 50:50 ratio, and neither has a dominant voting right. The fund will be filled entirely by new license revenues [4] - OPEC+ announced that 8 participating countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The gradual increase may be suspended or reversed depending on market conditions [4] - US employment growth was strong in April, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 (expected 130,000), and the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.2%, indicating that the uncertainty of Trump's trade policy has not significantly affected recruitment plans [4] Group 2: Commodity Market - The capital proportions of different commodity sectors are as follows: non-metallic building materials 2.52%, precious metals 29.74%, oilseeds 12.51%, soft commodities 3.18%, non-ferrous metals 19.54%, coking coal and steel minerals 12.98%, energy 2.70%, chemicals 12.36%, grains 1.91%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.56% [5] - Key commodities to focus on include urea, crude oil, plastic, glass, and lithium carbonate [6] Group 3: Asset Performance - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of major indices are as follows: Shanghai Composite Index -0.23%, 0.00%, -2.17%; SSE 50 -0.47%, 0.00%, -1.92%; CSI 300 -0.12%, 0.00%, -4.18%; CSI 500 0.48%, 0.00%, -1.64%; S&P 500 0.15%, 1.46%, -3.93%; Hang Seng Index 0.51%, 1.74%, 12.19%; Germany DAX 0.32%, 3.77%, 17.26%; Nikkei 225 0.57%, 2.18%, -7.68%; UK FTSE 100 0.37%, 1.19%, 5.18% [8] - The performance of major commodities shows different trends, such as WTI crude oil -3.69% daily, -1.63% monthly, -20.41% annually; London spot gold -0.85% daily, -1.45% monthly, 23.49% annually; LME copper -3.34% daily, 2.64% monthly, 6.65% annually [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 3.09% at $3343.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.29% at $32.68 per ounce. International oil prices weakened, and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures contracts declined across the board. London base metals mostly rose [2][3]. - Multiple institutions lowered their price forecasts for Brent crude oil in 2025 and 2026, citing OPEC+ production increases and concerns about demand [9][12]. - The yields of US Treasury bonds increased collectively, while the yields of European bonds generally decreased. The US dollar index declined, and most non - US currencies rose [33][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Precious metals: COMEX gold futures rose 3.09% to $3343.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.29% to $32.68 per ounce. The US tax policy proposal and central bank gold reserve expansion supported the market, while the oversupply in the photovoltaic industry pressured silver demand [2]. - Oil: US crude oil futures fell 1.82% to $57.23 per barrel, and Brent crude futures fell 1.55% to $60.34 per barrel. OPEC+ production increases and demand concerns suppressed oil prices [2]. - Agricultural products: CBOT agricultural futures contracts all declined, with soybean futures down 1.13% at 1046 cents per bushel, corn futures down 3.14% at 454.25 cents per bushel, and wheat futures down 2.21% at 531 cents per bushel [2]. - Base metals: LME tin rose 3.12% to $30880.00 per ton, nickel rose 1.31% to $15430.00 per ton, copper rose 1.20% to $9356.00 per ton, aluminum rose 1.06% to $2434.00 per ton, zinc rose 1.04% to $2615.00 per ton, and lead fell 1.30% to $1931.50 per ton [3]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - Israel's security cabinet approved an expanded offensive in Gaza, and the Yemeni Houthi rebels attacked Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport with a hypersonic ballistic missile [6]. - As of May 5, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 1379.07 points, down 3.5% from the previous period. The total number of global operating container ships increased to 7302, with a total operating capacity of 32215743 TEU and a total deadweight tonnage of 382174350 tons [7]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The six - month spread of Brent crude oil turned positive for the first time since December 2023, indicating an expected supply surplus. Multiple institutions, including ING, Barclays, and Goldman Sachs, lowered their price forecasts for Brent crude oil in 2025 and 2026. UBS Group expected seasonal growth in global oil demand and a rebound in Brent crude prices to $68 per barrel in the coming months [9][12]. Metal Futures - India's primary aluminum production increased from 416,000 tons in the 2023 - 24 fiscal year to 420,000 tons in the 2024 - 25 fiscal year, and refined copper production increased by 12.6% from 509,000 tons to 573,000 tons. The French bank economist warned of the negative impact of US tariff policies [14]. Black - Series Futures - From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China decreased by 45,200 tons, and at 45 ports decreased by 63,100 tons. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 218,000 tons. The property market in the first quarter of 2025 stabilized, with the transaction area of new and second - hand houses increasing by 17% year - on - year [16][19]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's palm oil inventory, production, and exports in April 2025 were expected to increase. India's cotton arrivals on May 3, 2025, were estimated at 5627 tons. Shandong issued a strong convective weather warning. Indonesia's biodiesel consumption increased, and its palm oil blending ratio rose to 40%. Brazil's soybean harvest rate reached 97.7% as of May 3, 2025. The US soybean planting rate was 30% as of May 4, 2025, and the export inspection volume decreased [21][26]. Financial Markets Commodities - Similar to the overnight market trends, precious metals rose, oil prices fell, agricultural products declined, and base metals mostly rose. Multiple institutions lowered their price forecasts for Brent crude oil, and Goldman Sachs was bullish on gold prices [28][29]. Bonds - US Treasury yields rose collectively, while European bond yields generally fell [33]. Foreign Exchange - The offshore RMB against the US dollar rose nearly 900 points in two trading days, driven by factors such as strong May Day travel data, positive signals from Sino - US trade consultations, and the decline of the US dollar index. The US dollar index fell 0.25% to 99.79, and most non - US currencies rose [34][37]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - A series of economic data will be released on May 6, 2025, including Australia's private building permits, China's Caixin services PMI, and the eurozone's PPI. There are also events such as the expiration of 1087 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and speeches by European Central Bank officials [41][43].

早盘速递 2025/4/30 热点资讯 1. 近日，国家发展改革委已印发通知，会同财政部及时向地方追加下达今年第二批810亿元超长期特别国债资金，继续大力支 持消费品以旧换新。下一步，国家发展改革委将充分发挥"两新"部际协调机制作用，强化统筹推进和跟踪调度，督促各地各 有关部门加快已拨资金审核兑付，切实减轻企业垫资压力，确保真金白银优惠直达消费者，推动消费品以旧换新政策发挥更大 效果。 2. 中国人民银行发布数据显示，2025年第一季度全国新发放商业性个人住房贷款加权平均利率为3.11%。 3. 外交部发言人郭嘉昆强调，中方多次阐明关税战、贸易战没有赢家。这场关税战是美方发起的，如果美方想通过对话谈判 解决问题，就应该停止威胁施压，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同中方开展对话。 4. 高盛最新研报表示，美国3月份商品贸易逆差扩大幅度超过预期。三月份货物进出口双双增长。贸易逆差扩大的主要原因是 消费品进口增加，这可能反映了在关税上调之前进口的"抢跑"。总体而言，我们将美国第一季度GDP跟踪预测下调了0.6个百 分点至-0.8%（季度环比年化）。美国GDP数据将于30日晚间公布。 5. 巴基斯坦信息部长Attaull ...

地址 ：北 京市 朝阳 区朝阳 门外 大街 甲 6 号万 通中 心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/04/30 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价大幅走低，美油主力合约收跌 3.08%，报 60.14 美元/桶；布伦特 原油主力合约跌 2.76%，报 63.00 美元/桶。 2. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌，大豆期货跌 0.94%报 1052.50 美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌 2.59%报 470.75 美分/蒲式耳，小 麦期货跌 1.22%报 524.50 美分/蒲式耳。 3.国内商品期货夜盘收盘普遍下跌，能源化工品表现疲软，纸浆跌 3.05%，玻 璃跌 2.6%，纯碱跌 2.26%，燃油跌 1.41%，低硫燃料油跌 1.2%。黑色系全线下 跌，焦煤跌 1.71%。农产品多数下跌，棕榈油跌近 1%。 原油主力合约收跌 2.07%报 478.0 元/桶。贵金属方面，沪金收跌 0.29%报 785.02 元/克，沪银涨 0.12%报 8226 元/千克。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1. 近日，国家发展改革委已印发通知，会同财政部及时向地方追加下达今 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Copper prices are currently in a state of long - short game on the trading board. As the subsequent macro - sentiment is gradually digested, the market is expected to return to fundamentals and remain in a volatile range in the short term [3][5]. - Given the repeated tariff policies and large fluctuations in crude oil, it is recommended to take a light - position short - selling approach to crude oil [6]. - For asphalt, with both supply and demand increasing and large fluctuations in crude oil, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [11]. - PP is expected to trade in a volatile manner [13]. - Plastic is expected to trade weakly in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to close the short - position on the basis of the plastic 05 contract for profit [14]. - PVC is expected to trade weakly in a volatile manner in the near term [16]. - Urea may experience a corrective rebound after the agricultural demand starts, but attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuations on the trading board [17]. Summary by Hot - Spot Varieties Copper - **Supply**: As of April 25, the domestic spot smelting fee (TC) is - 40.3 dollars per dry ton, and the RC fee is - 4.04 cents per pound, with negative values continuing to expand. In March, the refined copper production was 1.248 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%; the imported refined copper volume was 354,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The market still anticipates a tight supply [3]. - **Demand**: After the price increase, pre - May Day stocking was scattered. In the peak season, downstream demand was relatively strong, and the downstream operating rate was high. In the first two months of 2025, the global apparent refined copper usage increased by about 1%. In China, the apparent demand increased by about 1.6%. The net refined copper imports decreased by 11%. Terminal demand from power grid investment, household appliances, and automobiles brought an increase in copper demand, and copper inventory decreased significantly within the month [3]. - **Price Outlook**: The current trading board is in a long - short game. After the macro - sentiment is digested, the market will return to fundamentals and remain volatile in the short term [3][5]. Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC + started to gradually relax the production - cut plan in April and increased the daily crude oil supply in May to 411,000 barrels. However, the motivation for compensatory production cuts in some countries is insufficient. The US crude oil production is still near a historical high, and other non - OPEC + countries are also releasing production capacity, resulting in large supply pressure [6]. - **Demand**: The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the global economic growth rate is expected to decline. The three major crude oil institutions have lowered their forecasts for the global crude oil demand growth rate. May is the off - season for global crude oil consumption [6]. - **Price Outlook**: Given the repeated tariff policies and large price fluctuations, it is recommended to take a light - position short - selling approach [6]. Asphalt - **Supply**: Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 2.0 percentage points to 30.7%, higher than the same period last year. The expected production in May is 2.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons (1.3%) and a year - on - year increase of 30,000 tons (1.3%) [11]. - **Demand**: Last week, the downstream operating rate of asphalt increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased by 4.5 percentage points to 24.5%. The actual demand still needs to be restored [11]. - **Price Outlook**: With both supply and demand increasing and large fluctuations in crude oil, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [11]. PP - **Supply**: The operating rate of PP enterprises has risen to about 78.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn remains at about 29%. Exxon's two sets of equipment in Huizhou have been put into production, and there are many maintenance devices recently [13]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate of PP has decreased slightly, and the demand recovery is slow [12][13]. - **Price Outlook**: It is expected to trade in a volatile manner [13]. Plastic - **Supply**: The plastic operating rate has dropped to about 91%. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical, Inner Mongolia Baofeng 2, and ExxonMobil Huizhou Phase I have been put into production, and some maintenance devices have restarted recently [14]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PE is basically stable. The agricultural film season is coming to an end, and the packaging film orders have increased slightly. The downstream demand has not fully recovered, and the new orders are slow to follow up [14]. - **Price Outlook**: It is expected to trade weakly in a volatile manner. It is recommended to close the short - position on the basis of the plastic 05 contract for profit [14]. PVC - **Supply**: The PVC operating rate has increased to 78.63%. The spring inspection scale in April is less than that of last year, and the operating rate is expected to rise slightly this week [15][16]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PVC has not changed much and is still low compared to previous years. The real - estate data from January to March has slightly improved, but the year - on - year figures are still negative [16]. - **Price Outlook**: It is expected to trade weakly in a volatile manner in the near term [16]. Urea - **Supply**: The operating rate has increased, and the daily output has exceeded 200,000 tons. Some factories still have复产 plans after the May Day holiday [17]. - **Demand**: The holiday stocking is basically over. The demand from agricultural dealers is limited, and the demand from compound fertilizer factories is the main source. The demand for urea is expected to increase slightly after the summer fertilizer demand is released [17]. - **Price Outlook**: The current trading board is affected by negative sentiment, and the demand is weakening. There may be a corrective rebound after the agricultural demand starts [17]. Futures Market Overview - **Closing Prices**: As of April 29, most domestic futures main contracts fell. The container shipping index (European line) fell by more than 7%, and pulp and alumina fell by more than 3%. In terms of gains, staple fiber, asphalt, and international copper rose by nearly 1%. Among stock - index futures, the IF main contract fell by 0.20%, the IH main contract fell by 0.35%, the IC main contract rose by 0.23%, and the IM main contract rose by 0.70%. Among treasury - bond futures, the TS main contract rose by 0.01%, the TF main contract rose by 0.13%, the T main contract rose by 0.23%, and the TL main contract rose by 0.69% [8][9]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:18, funds flowed into alumina 2509 (460 million), CSI 1000 2506 (397 million), and ten - year treasury bonds 2506 (268 million). Funds flowed out of Shanghai gold 2506 (1.381 billion), Shanghai silver 2506 (486 million), and palm oil 2509 (298 million) [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market opened higher, moved lower, and then oscillated upward. The market is currently in a multi - short game, and the copper price is restricted by the macro direction. As the subsequent macro sentiment is gradually digested, the market is expected to return to the fundamentals, and the price will remain in the oscillation range in the short term [1]. - The supply side has a maintenance plan in the second quarter. Although domestic refined copper production is at a high level and imports are increasing, the market still has an expectation of tight supply. The demand side shows relatively strong downstream demand during the peak season, and the decline in copper inventory provides support for the market [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - In terms of international news, it is expected that Trump will take measures to mitigate the impact of automobile tariffs. Domestically, policies will be mainly implemented in the second quarter to deal with the impact of US tariffs [1]. - On the supply side, TC/RC fees are negative and expanding. The high sulfuric acid price makes up for some losses of smelters, but there are still maintenance plans. In March, the domestic refined copper production was 1248000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, and the imported refined copper was 354300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The growth rate of imports slowed down this month [1]. - On the demand side, after the price increase, the pre - May Day stocking was scattered. The downstream demand was relatively strong during the peak season, and the downstream operating rate was high. In the first two months of 2025, China's net refined copper imports decreased by 11%, while the global usage outside China increased by about 0.5%. Copper inventory decreased significantly this month [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The intraday Shanghai copper opened higher, moved lower, and closed up. It closed at 77600 yuan per ton. The long positions of the top 20 were 108371 lots, an increase of 1852 lots; the short positions were 104599 lots, an increase of 2200 lots [4]. - Spot: On April 29, 2025, the spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China was 245 yuan/ton. The LME official price was 9369 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 3.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of April 18, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 33.65 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.37 cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 34000 tons, a decrease of 28000 tons from the previous period. As of April 28, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 95800 tons, a decrease of 15400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 202500 tons, a slight decrease of 300 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 135100 short tons, an increase of 3168 short tons from the previous period [11].