Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The plastic market is expected to have limited upside in the near term due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern, despite a warm macro - atmosphere [1] - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there are new plastic production capacities coming on stream, the plastic operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the peak season for agricultural films is gradually ending [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On January 14th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Fujian United's full - density line 2 increased the plastic operating rate to around 86%, which is at a neutral level [1][4] - As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.06 percentage points to 41.21% on a month - on - month basis. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline and raw material inventory also decreasing. Packaging film orders increased slightly, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - The inventory build - up during New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level in recent years [1][4] - Due to the ongoing escalation of riots in Iran, Trump's threat to interfere, the lack of progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the passage of a sanctions bill against Russia, the crude oil price rebounded slightly [1] - New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE, 700,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) have been put into production recently [1] - As the temperature drops, terminal construction slows down, and demand in the north decreases. The production of northern greenhouse films has basically stopped, and the price of agricultural films has stabilized after a decline. Some industries are entering the off - season, and the downstream operating rate is expected to decline. Pre - holiday stocking is limited due to the approaching Spring Festival [1] - In December, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all rose to the expansion range. The Ministry of Finance has pre - allocated the quotas for trade - in and "two important" projects in 2026, creating a warm macro - atmosphere that boosts market sentiment [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The plastic 2605 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,786 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,866 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6,820 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.26%. The position decreased by 10,862 lots to 466,526 lots [2] - Most of the PE spot market prices rose, with price changes ranging from - 0 to + 150 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,720 - 6,920 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,100 - 9,360 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,870 - 8,440 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - The plastic operating rate rose to around 86% due to the restart of maintenance devices, which is at a neutral level [4] - The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.06 percentage points to 41.21% on a month - on - month basis. Agricultural film orders continued to decline and were at a neutral level in recent years, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - The petrochemical early inventory on Wednesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 560,000 tons compared to the previous day, which is the same as the same period last year [4] - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $65/barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat at $725/ton and $745/ton respectively [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 冠通期货 骆利关 油粕日报：延续震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 14 日 豆粕：CONAB：截至 2026 年 1 月 10 日，巴西 2025/26 年度大豆收获进度为 0.6%，高于一周前的 0.1%，低于去年同期的 0.3%，也低于五年同期均值 1.0%。 USDA：1 月 13 日，美国私人出口商报告向中国销售 16.8 万吨大豆，向墨西哥销 售 15.24 万吨大豆，均在 2025/26 年度交货。 市场对于后期抛储时间表仍然不清晰，昨天进口大豆抛储全部溢价成交，说 明市场供应缺口仍存，且需求端短期保持坚挺。近月豆粕预估震荡偏强运行，而 远月合约因为美农报告利空效应保持偏弱走势，如后续南美丰产进度推进 ，有 进一步下行可能。 油脂：印尼高级官员：印尼今年是否推出 B50 生物柴油强制掺混政策，将取 决于原油和棕榈油之间的价格差。印尼收取棕榈油出口费，用来补贴生物柴油计 划。补贴金额取决于原油和棕榈油之间的价格差。 周五，加拿大总理将在北京与中国领导人会面，这是八年多来加拿大总理首 次访问中国。知情人士透露，在卡尼访华期间，如果加拿大放宽对中国制造电动 汽车的关税，中国将做 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to have limited upward space due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern and shortened downstream order cycles, despite the warm macro - atmosphere [1] - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there is new capacity of plastics put into production recently, with a higher开工率 than PP, and the peak season of agricultural films is gradually ending [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On January 14th, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 81%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 25% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation during this New Year's Day was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of recent years [1][4] - Due to the continuous escalation of riots in Iran, Trump threatening to interfere again, no further progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, Trump passing a sanctions bill on Russia authorizing tariffs on countries importing Russian oil, the crude oil price rebounded slightly [1] - In terms of supply, the new 400,000 - ton/year capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into production in mid - October, and the number of recent maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there are limited new downstream orders approaching the Spring Festival holiday [1] - The manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index in December all rose to the expansion range, and the Ministry of Finance has pre - issued the quotas for trade - in and "two important" projects in 2026, creating a warm macro - atmosphere that boosts market sentiment [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures - The PP2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6545 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6607 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6590 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 0.76%. The position volume decreased by 9082 lots to 484356 lots [2] 3.2.2. Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions increased. The drawstring was reported at 6180 - 6680 yuan/ton [3] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 14th, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 81%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 25% [4] - Demand: As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 560,000 tons week - on - week, the same as the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during this New Year's Day was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of recent years [4] 3.4. Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $65 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $750 per ton week - on - week [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously bullish outlook on the rebar market, suggesting that buying on dips is relatively safe [5]. Report's Core View - Currently, the seasonal decline in rebar demand is evident, but there is potential for demand to be boosted by the warming sentiment of winter storage. Production continues to rise but remains relatively low compared to recent years. Anti - involution policies are expected to shrink production capacity, providing downside support. Inventory has started to accumulate but is at a relatively low level with limited pressure. In January, the market enters the inventory accumulation cycle, and the subsequent inventory accumulation situation needs attention. The raw material cost is relatively strong, with coke enterprises resisting price cuts. The real estate demand continues to decline, limiting the upside potential, but infrastructure demand may have some resilience. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support around the 10 - day moving average [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Wednesday, the rebar main contract increased its open interest by 3,518 lots, with a lower trading volume than the previous trading day (764,719 lots). The price fluctuated throughout the day, briefly rising above the 5 - day, 10 - day, and 20 - day moving averages, with a low of 3,152 yuan/ton, a high of 3,175 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 3,162 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03% [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar remained stable at 3,300 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 138 yuan/ton to the spot price. The relatively large basis provided some support, and winter storage in the futures market was considered cost - effective [1]. Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week ending January 8, rebar production increased by 28,200 tons week - on - week to 1.9104 million tons, rising for four consecutive weeks, but was 83,700 tons lower year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 surveyed steel mills was 79.31%, up 0.37 percentage points week - on - week and 2.13 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78 percentage points week - on - week and 1.80 percentage points year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points week - on - week and 12.99 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal production was 2.295 million tons, up 20,700 tons week - on - week. Although production continued to rise, the weekly production of rebar was still low compared to recent years [2]. - Demand side: The off - season effect deepened, and winter storage was cautious. As of the week ending January 8, the apparent consumption decreased by 254,800 tons week - on - week to 1.7496 million tons and was 150,900 tons lower year - on - year. Construction in the north had stopped, and projects in the south were nearing completion. The apparent consumption had declined for three consecutive weeks. Future focus should be on the start of winter storage demand [2]. - Inventory side: Inventory began to accumulate. As of the week ending January 8, the total inventory increased by 160,800 tons week - on - week to 4.3811 million tons, starting to build up after nine consecutive weeks of depletion. The social inventory was 2.9018 million tons, up 75,200 tons week - on - week but still at a low level in recent years, and the steel mill inventory was 1.4793 million tons, up 85,600 tons. The accumulation of social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, and future inventory accumulation should be monitored [3][4]. Macroeconomic situation - The central economic meeting proposed to use reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to local conditions. There are also incentives to acquire existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macroeconomic outlook is moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provides a transformation path for the steel industry, emphasizing "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." Although the incremental demand is relatively limited from a macro perspective, the loose policy cycle provides some support, and the upper limit of demand determines the pressure [4]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory at a three - year low, supply - side anti - involution production cuts, strict production capacity control, policy support for demand, marginal improvement in post - holiday demand, and a loose macroeconomic outlook [5]. - Bearish factors: Excessive inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, slower inventory depletion, accelerated blast furnace restart, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline in real estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [5].

Report Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "short - term shock" [1] Core View - Due to the long - term losses in the glass production line, there is an expectation of further contraction in supply. However, the real estate demand has not improved, and short - term market sentiment has cooled. The short - term glass price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average. Follow - up attention should be given to changes in macro - policies and the cold repair of production lines [3] Market行情回顾 Futures Market - The glass main contract opened high and closed low, showing a weak intraday shock. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a tightening horn shape, indicating a short - term shock signal. The intraday resistance was near the 60 - day moving average of the daily line, and the support was near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 167,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 19,859 lots. The intraday high was 1,102, the low was 1,081, and the closing price was 1,096, down 23 yuan/ton or 2.06% from the previous settlement price [1] Spot Market - The transaction was okay, and some manufacturers held up prices. In North China, the shipment of manufacturers in Shahe varied, and the overall production and sales were okay. In East China, there was little change, the overall shipment slowed down, enterprises kept prices stable, and downstream enthusiasm was average. In Central China, there was still a wait - and - see sentiment in the market, the manufacturer's shipment was average, and it was mainly for rigid demand. In South China, an individual enterprise did not raise prices for individual specifications, and most of the others remained stable, with cautious procurement [1] Basis - The spot price in North China was 1,020, and the basis was - 76 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data Supply - As of January 8, the daily average output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared with the 1st. The national float glass output was 1.0592 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The industry's average start - up rate was 71.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03% [2] Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes or 2.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days compared with the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is in a downward trend, and there is still a downward expectation in the future [2] Demand - The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, and the executable days of orders are decreasing, currently concentrated in 10 - 15 days. Home - improvement orders are mainly low - value scattered orders [2] Main Logic Summary - On the supply side, long - term losses in the glass production line have accelerated the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity, and there are still plans to cold - repair some production lines before the Spring Festival, so there is an expectation of further contraction on the supply side. However, real estate development investment and capital availability have continued to decline year - on - year, with weak completion and new construction, and real estate demand has not improved. In general, short - term market sentiment has cooled and coal prices have fallen, causing the glass to weaken in the short term. But cold - repair will continue before the Spring Festival, and supply is still expected to contract further. The short - term price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average. Follow - up attention should be given to changes in macro - policies and production line cold - repair [3]

沥青日报：高开后震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月14日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落2.0个百分点至25.4%，较去年同期高了1.3个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减 幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥 青开工环比下跌3个百分点至17%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华东地区主力炼厂间歇停产，其出 货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少20.05%至21.03万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比 上升，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。美国突袭委内瑞拉并逮捕马杜罗引发地缘政治局势动荡， 与影响国内原油不同，委内瑞拉重油是国内地炼重要的低价原料，而此次美国军事袭击之下，委内 瑞拉稀释沥青贴水幅度预计缩小，委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，特朗普称委内瑞拉将 向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，美国能源部长赖特宣称，美国将"无限期"地控制委内瑞拉石 油销售，这将影响国内沥青的生产和成本，目前美国政府倾向与维多和托克等全球大宗商品贸易商 合作，更快地 ...

早盘速递 2026/1/14 热点资讯 1. 美国总统特朗普表示，将对与伊朗开展商业往来的国家商品征收25%的关税，进一步加大对伊朗政府的压力。 2. 据一位知情人士透露，在特朗普政府大幅升级对美联储的施压后，全球央行官员正在努力发表一份声明，以示对美联储主 席鲍威尔的声援。 3. 美国总统特朗普表示，美国（12月）通胀数据出炉，非常低！这意味着杰罗姆·"太晚了"·鲍威尔应该大幅降息！如果 不降息，他只会继续"太晚了"！此外，美国经济增长数据也非常好。感谢关税先生！ 4. 据路透报道，周二，交易员们加大了押注，认为美联储可能不会等到美联储主席鲍威尔任期于五月结束后再降息，因为此 前美国劳工统计局报告称，基本消费者价格上涨幅度略低于预期。尽管交易员们仍认为，六月降息是最可能的结果，但根据最 新数据预测，美联储4月降息的概率约为42%，高于数据发布前的38%。 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，资讯来自于金十期货、Wind资讯等，冠通研究整理 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/1/14 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.44%报 4594.40 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货涨 2.08%报 86.86 美元/盎司。 2. 美油主力合约收涨 2.69%，报 61.1 美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨 2.43%， 报 65.42 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属涨跌参半，LME 期锡涨 2.46%报 49145.0 美元/吨，LME 期铝涨 0.36%报 3196.0 美元/吨，LME 期铅涨 0.34%报 2060.0 美元/吨，LME 期铜跌 0.40% 报 13156.5 美元/吨，LME 期锌跌 0.44%报 3202.0 美元/吨，LME 期镍跌 1.61%报 17600.0 美元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本文资讯内容根据网络，冠通期货编辑整理而成，仅供投资者参考。 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：苯乙烯超预期去库、纯苯历史级别高库存 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 13 日 【基本面分析】 【期现行情分析】 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 纯苯供需压力依旧较大，虽受整体情绪影响有所反弹，但空间较为有限，继 续维持震荡思路对待。 1、1 月 2 日至 8 日，中国苯乙烯工厂整体产量在 35.57 万吨，环比+0.99%; 工厂产能利用率 70.92%，环比+0.69%。 2、1 月 2 日至 8 日,苯乙烯下游 EPS、PS、ABS 消耗量环比+0.31%至 25.97 万吨。 3、截至 1 月 8 日，苯乙烯工厂库存在 16.23 万吨，环比上周-5.48%;截至 1 月 12 日，苯乙烯华东港口库存在 10.06 万吨，环比上周-23.96%。 4、截至 1 月 12 日，苯乙烯非一体化利润在 250.79 元/吨，一体化利润在 660.46 元/吨。 苯乙烯根据行业往期规律来看，1-3 月属于需求淡季，季节性累库的可能性 较大。由于今年春节较晚，季节性降负的时间点晚。 【宏观面分析】 财政部发布调整光伏等产 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "short - term shock" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - Currently, the fundamentals of soda ash have slightly improved, with policy expectations having a significant impact. However, due to the continuous release of new production capacity, the market supply - demand outlook is weakening, and short - term prices may fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened high and moved low, weakening within the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a narrowing signal for short - term shocks. The intraday pressure was near the 60 - day moving average, and the support was near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 210,000 lots compared to the previous day, while the open interest increased by 12,386 lots. The intraday high was 1242, the low was 1209, and the closing price was 1212, down 16 yuan/ton or 1.3% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: It was stable with fluctuations. Enterprise equipment was operating stably, and supply remained at a high level. New orders at new prices were average, mostly based on previous orders. Downstream trading was tepid, with low purchasing enthusiasm and resistance to high prices, mainly maintaining low - price procurement [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 38 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 8, domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. Light soda ash production was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons; heavy soda ash production was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43% from the previous week. The ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, up 11.20% week - on - week; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, up 1.33% week - on - week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, up 2.24% week - on - week [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5647 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons or 0.51% from last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 844,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 720,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,500 tons [2] - **Demand**: This week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15%. Downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash was relatively stable, but at the end of last month, some glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, weakening the rigid demand for heavy soda ash [2] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, while the price of steam coal increased, leading to higher costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current high capacity utilization rate of soda ash, along with the gradual release of new production capacity, has led to a continuous increase in overall output. One glass production line started production today, slowing down the cold - repair rhythm and slightly recovering rigid demand. Additionally, continuous losses and positive macro - sentiment provide some short - term support. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash have slightly improved, but the continuous release of new production capacity weakens the market supply - demand outlook, and short - term prices may fluctuate [4]