1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is affected by market sentiment and demand changes. The current fundamentals are weak, with supply pressure increasing as the daily production exceeds 200,000 tons, and demand showing marginal weakness. The market may experience a phased rebound when agricultural demand picks up, but there are risks of market fluctuations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea main contract opened and closed lower on the day, and the spot market was affected by the futures market. After the pre - holiday pre - order transactions were completed, the subsequent transactions stagnated due to the futures decline. The fundamentals remained weak, with the supply side having an increased start - up rate and some factories planning to resume production after the May Day holiday. The demand side saw improved transactions after the futures rebounded yesterday, but with the holiday stocking almost over and the decline of the futures today, it is expected that tomorrow's transactions will be weak. Some agricultural dealers started low - price stocking, but the demand from compound fertilizer factories was the main factor. The raw material urea inventory in factories was not under great pressure, and the start - up load declined. The summer fertilizer demand after the holiday would have limited incremental demand for urea. Agricultural demand was expected to relieve supply pressure in May [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main 2509 contract opened and closed lower at 1770 yuan/ton and finally closed at 1735 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.09%. The daily trading volume increased, and the open interest was 210,028 lots (+4,562 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 3,932 lots and short positions increased by 2,427 lots. Specifically, CITIC Futures' net long positions increased by 7,884 lots, Zhongtai Futures' net long positions increased by 2,770 lots, Guotai Junan's net short positions increased by 7,064 lots, and Galaxy Futures' net short positions decreased by 3,971 lots [2] - **Spot**: On April 29, 2025, the urea warehouse receipt quantity was 4,999, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot market transactions improved due to the futures rebound yesterday, but then stagnated. The ex - factory prices of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1,750 - 1,780 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The price of small - particle urea in Shanxi was 1,680 - 1,710 yuan/ton, and the quoted price of large - particle urea was mostly 1,720 - 1,760 yuan/ton, and local factories had good order receipts yesterday [3][5] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation was stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on Shandong, the basis widened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 85 yuan/ton (+66 yuan/ton) [8] - **Supply Data**: On April 29, 2025, the national daily urea production was 203,600 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the start - up rate was 87.28% [10]

早盘速递 2025/4/29 热点资讯 重点关注 原油、沪金、燃油、焦煤、PTA、沪铜 夜盘表现 板块表现 -2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.78% 贵金属, 29.74% 油脂油料, 12.55% 软商品, 2.87% 有色, 18.59% 煤焦钢矿, 13.50% 能源, 2.53% 化工, 12.50% 谷物, 2.03% 农副产品, 2.92% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (1,000,000) (800,000) (600,000) (400,000) (200,000) 0 200,000 400,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 W ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Policy implementation will be focused in the second quarter, and China is well - prepared for the impact of US tariff measures [8] - The People's Bank of China will use a moderately loose monetary policy, including potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, to support the economy [8] - China's energy, food supply is sufficient, and the impact of reducing imports from the US is limited [16][28] Summary by Category Overnight Night - Market Trends - **Domestic Commodity Futures**: Most closed down. Energy - chemical products mostly declined, with butadiene rubber down 1.18%, crude oil down 1.15%, etc.; black - series mostly fell, with coking coal down 1.57%; agricultural products generally dropped, while basic metals showed mixed results, and precious metals rose [2] - **International Precious Metals Futures**: Generally closed up, with COMEX gold futures up 1.71% at $3354.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.20% at $33.40 per ounce [3] - **International Oil Prices**: Weakened, with US crude futures down 1.79% at $61.89 per barrel and Brent crude futures down 1.87% at $64.57 per barrel [4] - **London Basic Metals**: Most rose, such as LME lead up 1.65% at $1977.00 per ton [4] - **CBOT Agricultural Products Futures**: Most closed down, except for soybeans up 0.19% at 1061.25 cents per bushel [4] Macro - Information - **Policy Announcements**: Policy implementation will peak in Q2; the central bank will use monetary tools and introduce incremental policies; relevant departments will promote project construction and address capital shortages [8][9] - **Diplomatic Responses**: There was no recent call between the two heads of state, and no negotiations on tariffs between China and the US [8] - **Industry Data**: As of March 2025, there were 151 futures companies in China; Shanghai's export container freight index declined [13][14] - **International News**: The US and Ukraine may sign a mineral framework agreement; tensions between India and Pakistan escalated [14] Energy - Chemical Futures - **Supply Situation**: Domestic energy supply is sufficient, and reducing imports from the US has no impact; inventories of some products like styrene and natural rubber changed [16] - **Company Response**: Yuanxing Energy's Alxa natural soda project phase II is progressing as planned [16] Metal Futures - **Gold Market**: China increased its gold reserves in Q1; domestic gold ETF holdings grew significantly; Hong Kong's gold exports to the mainland changed [19][20] - **Other Metals**: The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026; SHFE is soliciting casting aluminum alloy futures delivery products [19][21] Black - Series Futures - **Policy Measures**: Promote automobile consumption, stabilize the capital and real estate markets, and support the real economy [23] - **Iron Ore Data**: China's iron ore arrivals and global shipments changed in a certain period; Brazil's iron ore shipping data showed an increase [23][24][26] Agricultural Product Futures - **Supply Security**: Reducing US agricultural imports has little impact on China's food supply [28] - **Market Data**: Prices of pigs, corn, and other products changed; soybean processing, inventory, and trading data were reported; overseas agricultural production and shipping data were also provided [28][29][32] Financial Markets Commodities - **Commodity Futures**: Domestic and international commodity futures showed various trends; gold reserves and consumption data in China were reported; rice prices in Japan hit a record high [39][40][44] Bonds - **Bond Market**: Treasury futures mostly rose; convertible bond indices fell; government bond issuance data was reported; yields of US and European bonds changed; some bond events occurred [45][46] Foreign Exchange - **Exchange Rates**: The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar changed; major RMB exchange rate indices rose; the impact of US bond fluctuations on China's foreign exchange reserves is limited [49] Upcoming Events - **Domestic**: The People's Bank of China has reverse - repurchase maturities; many companies will release financial reports [52] - **International**: Central bank officials will give speeches; some international meetings will be held; the Japanese market is closed for a holiday [52][54]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 28 日 热点品种 沥青： 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升 2.0 个百分点至 30.7%，较去年同期高了 7.1 个百分点，沥青开工率继续回升，升至近年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据， 5 月份预计排产 231.8 万吨，环比增加 2.9 万吨，增幅为 1.3%，同比增加 3 万 吨，增幅为 1.3%。上周沥青下游开工率环比提升，其中道路沥青开工环比增加 4.5 个百分点至 24.5%，开工率提升较快，但仍处于偏低水平。上周炼厂复产叠 加节前备货，沥青出货量增加明显，全国出货量环比增加 42.42%至 29.11 万吨， 升至中性偏低位。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比略有下降，仍处于近年来同期的 最低位，南方有降雨间歇影响，沥青实际需求仍有待恢复。4 月 16 日，美国财政 部制裁购买伊朗原油的山东胜星化工，表示要将伊朗的非法石油出口降至零。近 期美国加大对伊朗的制裁，美伊第三轮间接会谈结束，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示， 双方仍存在分歧。但双方承诺会 ...

5. 国内商品期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一，能源化工品多数上涨，PTA 涨 1.87%，短 纤涨1.65%，苯乙烯跌1.08%，原油跌0.26%。黑色系涨跌不一，热卷涨2.21%， 螺纹钢涨 1.67%，铁矿石跌 1.33%。农产品普遍下跌，菜粕跌 2.74%，豆二跌 1.92%，豆粕跌 1.71%，豆一跌 1.27%。基本金属多数收跌，沪镍跌 1.22%，沪铅 跌 0.94%，沪锌跌 0.86%，不锈钢跌 0.31%，沪铜跌 0.22%，沪锡跌 0.06%，沪铝 涨 0.08%。沪金跌 0.77%，沪银跌 0.93%。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/04/28 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.55%报 3330.20 美元/盎司， 周涨 0.05%。COMEX 白银期货跌 1.43%报 33.34 美元/盎司，周涨%2.68%。 2. 国际油价走强，美油主力合约收涨 0.61%，报 63.17 美元/桶，周跌 1.31%； 布伦特原油主力合约涨 0.27%，报 65.83 美元/桶， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The Chinese government will implement more proactive macro - policies, including fiscal and monetary policies, to support the real economy [2]. - China's economy started well in Q1 2025, with GDP growing by 5.4% year - on - year. The financial system remained stable and the financial market showed strong resilience [3]. - From January to March, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a decline to an increase, and nearly 60% of industries saw profit growth [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot News - The Politburo emphasized proactive macro - policies, including possible reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [2]. - An explosion occurred at a port in Iran, causing 25 deaths [2]. - China is accelerating the pilot reform of automobile circulation and consumption [2]. - China's Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, and the financial system remained stable [3]. - From January to March, industrial enterprise profits turned from decline to growth, and manufacturing profits improved significantly [3]. Plate Performance - Key focus: hot - rolled coil, rebar, rapeseed meal, soybeans, PTA, and Shanghai gold [4]. - Night - session performance: different commodity futures had various price changes, with precious metals rising by 29.89%, coal - coking - steel - ore by 13.58%, and non - metallic building materials by 2.78% [4]. Asset Performance - Different asset classes had different performance. For example, among equities, the S&P 500 rose 0.74% daily, while among commodities, London spot gold rose 6.27% monthly and 26.47% annually [8].

【冠通研究】 成交氛围疲弱，盘面窄幅整理 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 25 日 【策略分析】 尿素主力合约日内低开高走，日内小幅反弹，最终震荡收跌。现货端上游工 厂继续降价吸单，新单成交状况一般。供应端，开工率提升，日产窄幅波动，后 续上游工厂检修计划多于复产计划，尿素日产预计继续上行，供给端压力不减。 需求端，下游跟进谨慎，复合肥工厂尿素库存压力不大，处于随用随采阶段，开 工负荷下滑，对尿素需求增量有限，成品降价吸单，库存仍居高位。农需方面， 目前暂未启动备肥，预计六月经销商将有行动，届时缓解供应压力。整体来说， 需求边际减弱，前期需求前置，后续支撑乏力。库存预计延续累库，阶段性需求 释放后，幅度或有所调减。整体来说，基本面偏弱，后期有阶段性行情，不排除 盘面小幅反弹，但整体看来，盘面依然维持弱势。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1759 元/吨日内低开高走，日内小幅反弹， 最终震荡收跌，最终收于 1757 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅-0.45%，日成交有 所减量，持仓量 210209 手（-8628 手）。前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-4904 手，空头-3297 手。其中，永 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 油脂： 今日油脂板块延续上涨，棕榈油 09 合约高开高走，增仓上行，涨幅 2.00%；豆油 高开震荡，尾盘涨幅收窄，涨幅 1.28%；菜油涨幅 1.47%。国际方面，马来西亚 棕榈油出口继续转好，4 月 1-25 日棕榈油出口量较上月同期增加 14.75%，同时 五月价格出口价格下调预计将继续刺激棕榈油的消费，季节性产量增加可能仍会 带来累库，但目前库存水平不高。印度方面，由于棕榈油价格下跌且低于豆油， 进口需求继续好转；东南亚棕榈油处于产需双增阶段，无明显驱动。国内方面， 棕榈油进口利润倒挂幅度延续收窄，5 月船期采购有所增加，供给有所增加，需 求有所复苏，库存周度数据 38.44 万吨，环比增加 3.58%，小幅累库但仍处于较 低水平。豆油方面，压榨厂周度开工率回升至 36.98%，环比增加 9.33 个百分点， 豆油周度产量 24.99 万吨，环比增加 33.72%；需求方面周度成交量 28.23 万吨， 环比增加 42.65%，持续改善；豆油周度库存数据为 65.04 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core View of the Report - The impact of tariffs has eased, but the issue of the Fed's interest rate cut remains uncertain, with macro - suppression still present, limiting the upside space. Future attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate situation and domestic policy stimulus [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and rose today, then dived in the afternoon and closed down. Internationally, Trump called for the Fed to cut interest rates. The Politburo meeting on April 25 pointed out the need for timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, maintaining sufficient liquidity and supporting the real economy. The smelting processing fee continues to expand negatively, and smelters are expected to face a round of maintenance. There are frequent disturbances at the mine end, and the supply side is expected to be tight. The downstream market trading sentiment is positive, and domestic visible inventories have been decreasing for weeks, supporting the upward trend of the market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper market opened lower and rose, then dived in the afternoon and closed down, at 77,440 yuan per ton. The number of long orders from the top 20 was 104,714, an increase of 2,620; the number of short orders was 104,896, a decrease of 372. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 165 yuan per ton, and in South China was 230 yuan per ton. On April 23, 2025, the LME official price was $9,415 per ton, and the spot premium was -$4.5 per ton [3] Supply Side - As of April 18, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$33.65 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -3.37 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 41,600 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period. As of April 24, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 111,200 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 203,400 tons, a slight decrease of 1,825 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 131,500 short tons, an increase of 1,703 short tons from the previous period [10]

早盘速递 2025/4/25 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 日涨跌幅% | 月内涨跌幅% | 年内涨跌幅（%） | 近一年走势 | | | 上证指数 上证50 | 0.03 0.25 | -1.15 -0.39 | -1.63 -1.10 | | | | 沪深300 | -0.07 | -2.65 | -3.83 | | | | 中证500 | -0.52 | -4.30 | -2.09 | | | 权益 | 标普500 | 2.03 | -2.26 | -6.75 | | | | 恒生指数 | -0.74 | -5.23 | 9.22 | | | | 德国DAX | 0.47 | -0.45 | 10.83 | | | | 日经225 | 0.49 | -1.62 | -12.17 | | | | 英国富时100 | 0.05 | -2.04 | 2.87 | | | | 10年期国债期货 | -0.09 | 0.75 | -0.22 | | | 固收类 | 5年期国债期货 | -0.11 | 0 ...