板块表现 热点资讯 1. 中美"第二阶段"贸易协定是否会在会谈中提出？商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示，中方多次强调，谈，大门敞开，但任何 对话谈判必须在相互尊重、平等协商、互惠互利的前提下开展。中方将坚定维护自身发展利益，坚持捍卫国际公平正义、维护 国际经贸秩序的立场和目标。 2. 印度媒体援引消息人士的话报道称，辛格在会上表示，在"朱砂行动"的精确打击中，约有100名"恐怖分子"被打死。由 于行动仍在进行中，目前无法透露更多细节。辛格强调："我们不希望局势升级，但如果巴基斯坦采取行动，我们也不会退缩 。" 3. 美国4月份集装箱进口量激增，因为企业竞相避开特朗普的关税，但美国两个最繁忙港口的高管表示，这一趋势似乎将在5 月份发生逆转。长滩港首席执行长科德罗（Mario Cordero）预计，5月份的货运量将较上年同期下降20%。 4. 巴基斯坦国防部长表示，在印度无人机侵入巴基斯坦之后，巴基斯坦"越来越确定"将打击印度。 5. 当地时间8日，英国和美国已经就关税贸易协议条款达成一致。英国政府同意进口美国食品和农业产品方面作出让步，以换 取美方降低对英国汽车出口的关税。美国总统特朗普表示，我认为10%的关税底线已 ...

制作日期： 2025/05/09 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期货夜盘收盘多数上涨，能源化工品普遍上涨，低硫燃料油涨 2.13%，原油涨 1.71%，PTA 涨 1.65%，燃油涨 1.5%，丁二烯橡胶涨 1.42%，纯碱 涨 1.07%，短纤涨 1.03%。黑色系全线下跌，螺纹钢跌 1.3%，焦煤跌 1.29%，热 卷跌 1.13%，焦炭跌近 1%。农产品多数上涨，棕榈油涨 1.12%，豆油涨 1.11%， 棉纱涨近 1%。基本金属多数上涨，氧化铝涨 4.05%，沪铜涨 0.72%，沪铝涨 0.46%，沪锡涨 0.30%，沪锌涨 0.27%。沪金跌 1.81%，沪银跌 0.12%。 2. 国际油价大幅走高，美油主力合约收涨 3.81%，报 60.28 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 3.40%，报 63.20 美元/桶。 3. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 2.40%报 3310.40 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 0.57%报 32.61 美元/盎司。 4. ...

【冠通研究】 情绪趋缓，盘面小幅波动 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 8 日 2025 年 5 月 8 日，尿素仓单数量 4970 张，环比上个交易日持平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 现货方面：市场情绪较前段时间已趋于缓和，出口政策以国内保供稳价为前 提，否则将可能叫停出口，具体政策尚未落地，市场价格回稳，部分工厂控制收 单。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂出厂价格范围仍在 1820-1850 元/吨。 【策略分析】 尿素今日低开日内承压。市场情绪较前段时间已趋于缓和，出口政策以国内 保供稳价为前提，否则将可能叫停出口，具体政策尚未落地，市场价格回稳，部 分工厂控制收单。基本面情况来看，供应端，开工率稳定，上游工厂节后有小部 分检修减产，后续泉盛、联盟及刘化有检修情况，祥丰有复产计划。需求端来看， 农业备肥偏谨慎，工业需求仍未刚需，复合肥工厂方面，终端走货不畅，场内成 品 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged has led to an increase in the US dollar index, putting pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, both supply and demand are weak, and the sustainability of downstream demand is questionable. The market has been mainly trading on macro - information recently. The implementation of domestic stimulus policies remains to be seen, and copper prices are currently fluctuating slightly and mainly in a range - bound pattern [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - **Macro Aspect**: Since January this year, the Fed has maintained the interest rate decision unchanged for the third consecutive time. Powell stated that there is no need to adjust interest rates hastily. Trump's call for a rate cut does not affect the Fed's work. This news has led to a rebound in the US dollar index and put pressure on copper prices [1]. - **Supply Side**: In May, multiple domestic smelters have maintenance plans, with an estimated impact on electrolytic copper production of 21,000 tons. There are still concentrated maintenance plans from July to September. The estimated domestic refined copper production in May is 1.023 million tons (a 1.2% month - on - month increase). TC/RC fees continue to be negative and the negative value is expanding. The high - running sulfuric acid price has made up for some losses of smelters, but smelter inventories are tightening [1]. - **Demand Side**: After the holiday, demand recovery has been slow. The downstream operating rate has increased. In April, the operating rate of cable enterprises reached 86.3%, a 3.2% month - on - month increase. Orders in May are expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month. Spot copper prices are strong. In the context of significant inventory reduction, the market has strong expectations for demand. However, in April, China's manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin China General Services PMI decreased by 1.2 percentage points from March, reaching the lowest level in seven months in the expansion range [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: Intraday, Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, with intraday fluctuations under pressure. It closed at 77,620 yuan per ton. The number of long positions of the top twenty was 118,861 lots, an increase of 2,491 lots; the number of short positions was 111,865 lots, an increase of 1,373 lots [4]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 210 yuan per ton, and in South China it was 195 yuan per ton. On May 7, 2025, the LME official price was $9,462 per ton, and the spot premium was $24 per ton [4]. Supply - Side Information As of April 25, the latest data showed that the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 40.3 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.04 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 19,500 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. As of April 28, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 95,800 tons, a decrease of 15,400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 194,300 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 156,600 short tons, an increase of 1,991 short tons from the previous period [9].

制作日期： 2025/05/08 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期货夜盘收盘普遍下跌，能源化工品多数下跌，玻璃跌 2.96%，纯 碱跌 2.7%，原油跌 1.52%，PVC 跌 1.37%，乙二醇跌 1.14%，甲醇跌 1.11%，苯 乙烯跌1.04%。黑色系全线下跌，焦煤跌2.57%，焦炭跌2.45%，铁矿石跌1.12%。 农产品多数下跌，豆一跌 1.58%，白糖跌 1.09%。基本金属全线下跌。沪铝跌 1.55%，沪锡跌 0.94%，沪铜跌 0.74%，沪铅跌 0.57%，沪锌跌 0.49%。沪金涨 0.07%，沪银跌 1.15%。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.47%报 3372.60 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 2.31%报 32.61 美元/盎司。美联储维持利率政策，通胀和经 济前景不确定性加剧市场波动，同时贸易政策的不确定性继续影响避险资产需 求。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The People's Bank of China announced on May 7th to cut the deposit - reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market, and lower the deposit - reserve ratio of auto finance companies and financial leasing companies from 5% to 0% [2] - The PBOC decided to cut the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points starting from May 8th, 2025 [2] - The PBOC decided to cut the re - loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points starting from May 7th, 2025 [2] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9th - 12th and hold talks with the US side. The talks are held at the US request, and China's stance against US tariff abuse remains unchanged [3] - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. Traders still expect three rate cuts this year [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: glass, soda ash, asphalt, coking coal, urea [4] - Night - session performance: non - metallic building materials rose 2.58%, precious metals rose 31.40%, oilseeds and oils rose 11.78%, soft commodities rose 2.71%, non - ferrous metals rose 19.66%, coal - coking - steel - minerals rose 12.63%, energy rose 2.51%, chemicals rose 12.07%, grains rose 1.85%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.81% [4] Group 3: Asset Performance - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.80% daily, 1.94% monthly, and - 0.27% year - to - date; S&P 500 rose 0.43% daily, 1.12% monthly, and - 4.26% year - to - date; Hang Seng Index rose 0.13% daily, 2.59% monthly, and 13.12% year - to - date [7] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.19% daily, - 0.14% monthly, and - 0.07% year - to - date; 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily, - 0.10% monthly, and - 0.51% year - to - date [7] - Commodities: CRB commodity index fell 0.85% daily, 0.34% monthly, and - 2.35% year - to - date; WTI crude oil fell 1.84% daily, - 0.33% monthly, and - 19.35% year - to - date; London spot gold fell 1.95% daily, 2.31% monthly, and 28.20% year - to - date [7] - Others: US dollar index was flat daily, - 0.38% monthly, and - 8.50% year - to - date; CBOE volatility was flat daily, 0.24% monthly, and 42.71% year - to - date [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The urea market shows an upward trend today, with potential risks due to uncertain export news. The short - term trend of copper is mainly range - bound, affected by macro uncertainties and strong fundamentals. The short - term trend of rebar is expected to be volatile, and the hot - rolled coil market faces supply and demand pressure. The soybean meal 09 contract is expected to rebound [3][10][11][13][16] - The lithium carbonate market is in a weak state in the short term, with an oversupply pattern and a tendency of weak range - bound oscillation [5] 3. Summary by Variety Urea - Price movement: Opened slightly higher and trended upward during the day. Factory prices continued to rise and started a limited - order receiving mode [3] - Supply: Some upstream factories had minor maintenance and production cuts after the holiday, and daily production decreased slightly. Future maintenance plans are expected to cause narrow fluctuations [3] - Demand: Agricultural fertilizer preparation is cautious, and high - price transactions at factories are average. Industrial demand is not yet a rigid need. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has declined for eight consecutive weeks [3] - Inventory: Inventory turned to destocking this week, providing some support to the futures price [3] Carbonate Lithium - Price movement: After six consecutive days of decline, it opened lower and hit a new low, with an afternoon narrow - range oscillation. The closing price was 64,615.93 yuan/ton, a 1.6% drop [4] - Supply: Some upstream salt plants stopped production or had maintenance. The supply - demand imbalance pressure has been slightly relieved, but the production capacity of shutdown enterprises has not been cleared [5] - Demand: Affected by the macro - environment, downstream demand is uncertain. If an agreement on electric vehicles is reached between China and Europe, demand is expected to improve [5] - Inventory: From April to May, the Chinese market still had inventory accumulation, and the inventory pressure remains [5] Copper - Price movement: Opened high and then rose during the day [10] - Supply: Multiple smelters have maintenance plans in May, with an expected impact on electrolytic copper output of 21,000 tons. The market still anticipates a tight supply [10] - Demand: The downstream operating rate is rising. In April, the operating rate of cable enterprises reached 86.3%, and orders in May are expected to increase by 8 - 10% month - on - month [10] - Market situation: Macroeconomic uncertainties and the expectation of US economic stagflation suppress the upside, but the fundamentals are still strong [10] Rebar - Price movement: The main contract RB2510 closed at 3,098 yuan, a 0.19% increase from the previous trading day, showing a slight upward oscillation [11] - Supply: Some steel mills have maintenance, but there is no centralized production control. Output is still slightly increasing [11] - Demand: Post - holiday restocking drove the apparent demand to a new high [11] - Inventory: Total inventory of five major steel products decreased by 870,000 tons, and rebar inventory decreased by 583,000 tons [12] Hot - Rolled Coil - Price movement: The main contract HC2510 closed at 3,217 yuan, a 0.34% increase, with frequent price fluctuations [13] - Supply: Plate steel mills resumed production, and output increased by 18,000 tons. However, the profit per ton is shrinking, and the room for further production increase is limited [13] - Demand: Weekly apparent demand increased slightly, but external demand is weak due to frequent anti - dumping investigations overseas [13] - Inventory: Total inventory decreased by 134,000 tons, with a slower destocking speed than rebar [13] Soybean Meal - Price movement: The main 09 contract opened low and oscillated, with a closing decline of - 0.03% [14] - International situation: The US soybean planting season has good weather and fast progress. Brazil may expand its soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season [14] - Domestic situation: Since late April, imported Brazilian soybeans have arrived at ports, and the inventory of soybean and soybean meal in oil mills has slightly increased [16] - Outlook: The 09 contract is expected to rebound, and cautious operation is recommended [16] Overall Futures Market - As of the close on May 7, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), PX, and asphalt rose nearly 3%, while polysilicon fell more than 3% [7] - In terms of funds, the CSI 1000 2506 had an inflow of 4.138 billion yuan, while rebar 2510 had an outflow of 3.772 billion yuan [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened slightly higher and trended upward. Factory prices continued to rise and adopted a limited - order - receiving mode. The continuous rise in the futures market stimulated market demand. The supply side saw a small - scale post - holiday maintenance and production cut, and the daily output decreased slightly. The demand side showed cautious agricultural fertilizer preparation and weak industrial demand. This week, inventory started to decline, and the market was affected by export rumors, with high expectations but no official confirmation [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened slightly higher and trended upward. Factory prices rose and adopted a limited - order - receiving mode. The supply side had small - scale post - holiday maintenance and production cuts, and the daily output decreased slightly. The demand side had cautious agricultural fertilizer preparation, and industrial demand was still for immediate needs. The composite fertilizer factory's terminal sales were poor, and the inventory was high. This week, inventory started to decline, and the market was affected by export rumors [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1900 yuan/ton, fluctuated downward during the day, and finally closed at 1886 yuan/ton, up 0.96%. The trading volume increased by 24,618 lots to 256,052 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions increased by 18,614 lots, and the short positions increased by 8,831 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Factory prices continued to rise and adopted a limited - order - receiving mode. The ex - factory prices of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1820 - 1850 yuan/ton [5]. Warehouse Receipts - On May 7, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4,970, the same as the previous trading day [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation rose, and the futures closing price increased. The basis of the September contract widened to 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply Data**: On May 7, 2025, the national daily urea output was 199,900 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.7% [11]. - **Enterprise Inventory Data**: As of May 7, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0656 million tons, a decrease of 126,100 tons from last week, a 10.58% decrease. The pre - sale order days were 5.82 days, a decrease of 1.65 days from the previous period, a 22.09% decrease [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The April Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, reaching a three - month low; the Caixin China Services PMI also dropped 1.2 percentage points to 50.7, the lowest since Q4 2024 [1] - The global manufacturing PMI in April was 49.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for two consecutive months, indicating increased downward pressure on the global economy [1] - "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos said Trump's tariff policies might put the Fed in a lose - lose situation, and the Fed is expected to maintain a wait - and - see stance on interest rate cuts [1] - China's attitude towards the US - China tariff war is clear: ready to fight if necessary and willing to talk [2] - China and the European Parliament have decided to cancel restrictions on mutual exchanges [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Hot News - The April Caixin China Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI both declined, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.4 and the services PMI at 50.7 [1] - The global manufacturing PMI in April was 49.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, in the contraction range for two consecutive months [1] - Trump's tariff policies may pose challenges to the Fed, and the Fed will likely maintain a wait - and - see stance on interest rate cuts [1] - China's attitude towards the US - China tariff war is "fight if necessary, talk if possible", and China and the European Parliament will cancel restrictions on mutual exchanges [2] 3.2 Plate Performance - Key areas to focus on include crude oil, Shanghai gold, asphalt oil, coking coal, and urea [3] - In the night session, the non - metallic building materials sector rose 2.59%, the grain sector 1.77%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector 2.69% [3] 3.3 Plate Capital Occupancy - The capital occupancy ratios of different commodity sectors are as follows: precious metals 30.03%, oilseeds and oils 12.13%, soft commodities 3.20%, non - ferrous metals 19.39%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 12.87%, energy 2.66%, and chemicals 12.68% [4] 3.4 Plate Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures plate positions in the past five days, but specific data is not clearly described [5] 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13% daily, 1.13% monthly, and was down 1.06% year - to - date; the S&P 500 was down 0.77% daily, up 0.68% monthly, and down 4.67% year - to - date; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.70% daily, 2.46% monthly, and 12.97% year - to - date [7] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury futures were flat daily, up 0.04% monthly, and up 0.11% year - to - date; the 5 - year Treasury futures were down 0.04% daily and monthly, and down 0.45% year - to - date [7] - In the commodity category, the CRB Commodity Index rose 1.35% daily, 1.20% monthly, and was down 1.51% year - to - date; WTI crude oil rose 3.43% daily, 1.55% monthly, and was down 17.84% year - to - date; London spot gold rose 5.88% daily, 4.34% monthly, and 30.75% year - to - date [7] - In other categories, the US Dollar Index was down 0.53% daily, 0.38% monthly, and 8.50% year - to - date; the CBOE Volatility Index was flat daily, down 4.29% monthly, and up 36.25% year - to - date [7]