Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The inventory pressure of methanol is prominent, and the import pressure in December still exists. The demand weakens at the end of the year, so there is a certain pressure on the rebound height. It is difficult to significantly reduce the inventory before the Spring Festival under the import pressure from December to January. Although the logic of winter gas restriction and rising coal prices still exists, it needs to be reflected in inventory reduction. In the short - term, a volatile approach should be adopted, and it is necessary to wait for the right time to rise [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 10, 2025, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 123.44 tons, a decrease of 11.5 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 10.82 tons, and that in South China decreased by 0.68 tons. The significant inventory reduction in methanol ports this week was due to the serious impact on the first - port unloading and subsequent unloading of individual dock vessels, resulting in only 16.63 tons of visible foreign vessels unloaded during the cycle. In East China, there were almost no domestic vessels arriving at the port, and the strong back - flow to the inland supported the提货 of the mainstream storage areas along the river. Although a large - scale terminal in Zhejiang stopped at the beginning of the week, other consumption remained stable. The lower - than - expected unloading led to a significant inventory reduction in East China. In terms of imports, due to gas restriction in Iran, some plants stopped, and the operating rate decreased, with the daily average production capacity dropping to around 15,000 tons. However, Iran had loaded 125 tons in November, and the expected arrival volume within the year continued, so the import pressure still existed [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 4.8%, with an expected value of 5% and a previous value of 4.90%. The year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods in November was 1.3%, with an expected value of 2.8% and a previous value of 2.90%. The onshore RMB against the US dollar reached a high of 7.0500 during intraday trading, the first time since October 9, 2024. The offshore RMB against the US dollar reached a high of 7.046 on December 15, hitting a new high since early October 2024. In November, the year - on - year increase in the consumer price index further expanded, and positive changes continued to emerge [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - After the Central Economic Work Conference, the market sentiment slightly improved, and the intraday market rebounded slightly, but the inventory pressure in the fundamentals was prominent [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the oil and meal industry is a weak and volatile trend [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The near - month contracts and spot prices of soymeal should focus on the pricing and transaction of the second batch of imported soybeans tomorrow. The far - month contracts are expected to remain in a weak and volatile trend under the expectation of a loose supply [2] - The overall trend of oils is weak and volatile. After the negative factors of palm oil and rapeseed oil are gradually realized, the market may enter a volatile state again. The upcoming US biofuel policy may provide some guidance [3] Summary by Related Content Soymeal - A private exporter reported selling 132,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [1] - As of December 11, the soybean planting rate in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 58%, up from 49% last week but lower than 66% in the same period last year [1] - On December 12, the total transaction volume of soymeal at major oil mills across the country was 82,500 tons, a decrease of 68,400 tons from the previous trading day. Spot transactions were 25,000 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons, and far - month basis transactions were 57,500 tons, a decrease of 61,600 tons [1] - The operating rate of the national dynamic full - sample oil mills was 58.33%, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous day. Soymeal inventory remained above 1.1 million tons, with a loose supply [1] - The pricing of the state - owned reserve soybean auction by Sinograin is the main factor determining the soybean crushing cost in the next quarter, and whether the auction price is close to the Brazilian import cost is the key to determining the spread between far - month and near - month contracts [1] Oils Palm Oil - SGS estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10 were 280,048 tons, a 46.98% increase from 190,533 tons in the same period last month [2] - The export report in the first ten days showed an increase, which may provide short - term support for palm oil. However, it is difficult for palm oil to have a unilateral market in the short term, and subsequent attention should be paid to India's restocking demand [3] Rapeseed Oil - CGC data showed that as of the week ending December 7, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 81.9% to 289,200 tons from 159,000 tons in the previous week. From August 1 to December 7, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 2.3764 million tons, a 41% decrease from the same period last year. As of December 7, Canada's commercial rapeseed inventory was 1.2727 million tons [2] - Due to the strong foreign production increase expectation and the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the premium of rapeseed oil has significantly retreated. After continuous decline, the market has regained rationality. Future attention should be paid to rapeseed purchases in the next quarter and the possibility of restarting Canadian rapeseed purchases [2] Soybean Oil - The domestic soybean oil market is in a period of loose supply and demand with no obvious driving factors. Before the US biofuel policy is fully implemented, it is difficult for soybean oil to have a trending market. The implementation of the US biofuel policy may be the biggest driving factor for soybean oil in the future [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report In the context of the gradual decline of macro - event disturbances, the trading logic of iron ore will gradually return to the fundamentals. With weak rigid demand, inventory accumulation, and a stable and rising shipping volume, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - The total global iron ore shipping volume this period is 3.5925 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 224,000 tons. The shipping volumes of Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries all increased month - on - month. From December 8th to 14th, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.9281 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 358,900 tons. The arrival volume continued to rise. The impact of the previous hurricane on foreign ore shipping gradually diminished, and there is a certain impetus for year - end shipping to increase. The overall shipping volume is expected to be stable and gradually recover [1]. Demand Side - The daily average pig iron output this week is 229,200 (- 3,100) tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.63% (- 1.92%); the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 85.92% (- 1.16%); the steel mill profitability rate is 35.93% (- 0.43%). The pig iron output continued its seasonal decline, the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils declined more than seasonally. Blast furnaces are facing environmental protection and annual maintenance. The daily consumption and inventory of sintered powder ore both declined. There is still an expected continuous decline in pig iron output, and steel mills' demand for raw material replenishment remains at a slow pace [1]. Inventory Side - Port inventories continued to increase. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports this week was 16.11147 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 120,360 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 334,170 tons, a decrease of 60 tons. Port inventories continued to accumulate, and the pressure of ships at ports was relieved. The steel mill inventory decreased month - on - month. The total inventory of imported iron ore of national steel mills was 8.8342 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 150,530 tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore of the sample steel mills was 283,270 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,800 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.19 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 days. Steel mill inventories continued to decline, daily consumption continued to decline with the decrease in pig iron output, the inventory - to - sales ratio weakened, and steel mills were not eager to replenish inventory [2]. Profit Side - The landing profit of PB powder is - 13.33 (+ 10.42) yuan/ton, and the landing profit of Super Special powder is - 6.2 (+ 13.02) yuan/ton [2].

2025年11月宏观经济数据 冠通期货研究咨询部 日期 2025年12月15日 宏观数据 2025年12月15日，国家统计局公布11月宏观经济数据。总的来看，11月份国民经济运行总体平稳，延续稳中有进发展态势。但外部不稳定不确定因素较多，国内有效需求不足，经济运行面临不少挑战 。下阶段，要坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻落实党的二十大和二十届历次全会、中央经济工作会议精神，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，持续扩 大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 一、全年粮食实现丰收，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上全年全国粮食产量14298亿斤，比上年增加167.5亿斤，增长1.2%，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上。其中，秋粮产量10732亿斤，比上年增加163.6亿斤，增长1.5%。全国谷物产量13204亿斤，比上年增加158.4亿斤，增长1.2%。粮食 播种面积增加、单产提高。全国粮食播种面积17.91亿亩，比上年增加134.8万亩，增长0.1%；粮食单产399.1公斤/亩，每亩产量比上年增加4.4公斤，增长1.1% ...

发布日期：2025 年 12 月 15 日 尿素周报： 也无风雨也无晴，基本面支撑有限 【冠通期货研究报告】 摘要： 上周尿素周一下挫后维持弱势波动。现货市场来看，周内尿素价 格略显僵持，市场情绪虽期货涨跌略有波动，但受制于前期订单充足， 挺价之下，波动幅度较小。周末以来，价格保持稳定，前期订单逐渐减 少，后续无刺激预计工厂将开启降价吸单。基本面来看，气头减产所引 起的产量下降依然在继续，但今年气头减产时间及数量弱与往年，主要 系天然气资源同比宽松，限气幅度有所收窄，但目前天然气利润低，后 续装置停车问题还需进一步验证。农业需求处于淡季阶段，只有部分低 价阶段性少量拿货，工业需求月内连续转好，直到本周增速有所放缓， 目前复合肥政策尚不明朗，接货谨慎，发运以前期订单为主，提升空间 有限。而其他工业需求端因环保检查的结束而逐渐复工，后续冬储需求 还将继续释放，尿素下游依然有韧性。内需加出口推进尿素厂内库存持 续去化，后续冬储的持续释放并且上游装置的气头减产，预计库存依旧 去化为主，预计本周将完成移仓换月，尿素上方压力明显，若无驱动刺 激盘面上行，盘面有低位下挫概率。 现货市场动态 现货市场来看，周内尿素价格略显僵 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the domestic macro - meeting also released positive signals of loose monetary policy, leading to a significant rise in copper prices last week. After the sentiment cooled on Monday this week, copper prices corrected. Fundamentally, long - term contracts are still under negotiation, processing fees mostly end in negative values. After the macro - sentiment drives up copper prices, downstream purchasing willingness weakens, and the spot premium weakens. However, before 2026, the pre - demand for new energy vehicles will increase the consumption demand for copper, providing support for copper prices and preventing a sharp decline [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Macro aspect**: Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Although the interest - rate cut expectation for 2026 is unclear, the US dollar index declined as expected, supporting the metal market. The domestic macro - meeting also released positive signals of loose monetary policy, boosting copper prices throughout the week. In November 2025, CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year, PPI fell 2.2% year - on - year and rose 0.1% month - on - month [3] - **Supply aspect**: Last week, as the Shanghai copper price soared, scrap copper enterprises were cautious, and the spread between refined and scrap copper widened. After the 770th document is clarified, the production enthusiasm in relevant regions such as Anhui and Jiangxi may change, potentially increasing scrap copper supply. In November, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05% month - on - month and 9.75% year - on - year). From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.76%. SMM expects the electrolytic copper production in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year) [3] - **Demand aspect**: This week, as copper prices rose, the profit of copper products was squeezed. The production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, and the capacity utilization rate declined. Copper tube enterprises were restricted by capital pressure, and most enterprises chose to wait and see, only maintaining the raw material procurement for rigid orders, significantly suppressing market trading activity. The copper foil sector maintained a high - growth level due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and the pre - demand for new energy vehicles [3] 2. Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose. The weekly high was 94,570 yuan/ton, the low was 90,710 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 4.16%, and the range increase was 1.4% [6] 3. Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of December 12, the average spot premium in East China was 75 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 140 yuan/ton. Last week, the market traded on the Fed's interest - rate cut logic, and the futures price rose continuously. However, due to the downstream's resistance to high prices, the copper spot premium weakened [12] 4. LME Copper Spread Structure - As of December 12, LME copper rose 1.54% during the week, closing at $11,795/ton. Last week, the market traded on the Fed's interest - rate cut logic, and the futures price rose continuously [16] 5. Copper Concentrate Supply - According to customs data on December 12, the port data of copper concentrate was 664,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7%. The copper concentrate inventory has reached an inflection point. Near the end of the year, it is expected that the copper ore inventory will fluctuate within a narrow range. The global copper concentrate is in short supply and the ore grade is declining, so the copper ore supply remains tight. In November 2025, China imported 2.526 million tons of copper ore and its concentrates; from January to November, China imported 27.614 million tons of copper ore and its concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [20] 6. Scrap Copper Supply - According to customs statistics, in October 2025, the import volume of scrap copper (copper waste and scrap) was about 196,607 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. The largest import source was still Japan. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than the expected 27.68%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.46%. Last week, as the Shanghai copper price soared, scrap copper enterprises were cautious, and the spread between refined and scrap copper widened. After the 770th document is clarified, the production enthusiasm in relevant regions such as Anhui and Jiangxi may change, potentially increasing scrap copper supply [27] 7. Smelter Fees - As of December 12, the domestic spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $43.33/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.41 cents/lb. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. The China Copper Smelters Purchasing Consortium (CSPT) announced that its members will jointly cut production by more than 10% in 2026. Currently, the long - term processing fee for copper in 2026 is still under negotiation. According to SMM, in the second round of long - term contract negotiations, it is rumored that smelters offered + $11, while Antofagasta offered - $7.5. SMM expects that the negotiation result is likely to fall in the range of 0 to - $5, and the possibility of a result of $0 is high [31] 8. Refined Copper Supply - In November, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05% month - on - month and 9.75% year - on - year). From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.76%. SMM expects the electrolytic copper production in December to increase by 65,700 tons month - on - month (5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year). According to the latest customs data, in November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products; from January to November, China imported 4.883 million tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [35] 9. Apparent Demand - As of October 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3218 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.25% [39] 10. Copper Products - This week, as copper prices rose, the profit of copper products was squeezed. The production enthusiasm of copper strips was weak, and the capacity utilization rate declined. Production enterprises generally slowed down the production rhythm due to multiple factors such as raw material prices, inventory, and demand. Copper tube enterprises were restricted by capital pressure, and most enterprises chose to wait and see, only maintaining the raw material procurement for rigid orders, significantly suppressing market trading activity. The copper foil sector maintained a high - growth level due to the demand for energy - storage batteries and the pre - demand for new energy vehicles [44] 11. Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of October, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%; the installed capacity of wind power was 590 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.4%. From January to October, the cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide were 2,619 hours, 260 hours lower than the same period last year [48] 12. Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - According to national statistics, from January to November, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; among them, the sales area of residential housing decreased by 8.1%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 7.513 trillion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%; among them, the sales volume of residential housing decreased by 11.2% [54] 13. Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - According to the Passenger Car Association, from November 1 to 30, 2025, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide reached 1.72 million, a year - on - year increase of 20% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. As of November this year, the cumulative wholesale sales of new energy vehicles have reached 13.78 million, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Starting from January 1, 2026, the vehicle purchase tax will be halved instead of being exempted, so the purchase demand for new energy vehicles may be advanced [60] 14. Global Copper Inventories in Major Exchanges - As of December 12, the LME copper inventory increased by 3,350 tons to 165,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.2%. The COMEX copper inventory was 436,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.15% and a year - on - year increase of 381.73%. The global copper inventory has increased continuously, but due to the US's "siphoning" of copper, there is still a shortage and imbalance of copper resources in some regions. As of December 11, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 1.095 million tons. The bonded - area inventory continued to increase. Some smelters' exported goods still arrived and were stored in the warehouse, but there were also goods leaving the port and being exported overseas during the week, so the inventory increase was limited. As of December 12, the electrolytic copper futures inventory was 32,600 tons, and the total inventory was 89,400 tons, both showing a week - on - week increasing trend, mainly because after the price rose continuously last week, the downstream's purchasing willingness weakened, and the inventory tended to increase [65][70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market focused on the Fed's December FOMC meeting overseas and the Central Economic Work Conference in China last week. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the market strengthened its easing expectations. In China, the Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for continued easing in 2026 [5]. - Global stock markets and commodities mostly declined, and A - shares showed a differentiated trend. Commodities were more differentiated, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals rising strongly, while the energy and chemical sectors were dragged down by weak oil prices, and the black series tumbled [5]. - The domestic bond market showed mixed performance, with short - term bonds stronger than long - term bonds, and the stock index fluctuated and differentiated. Most domestic commodity categories closed down [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Overseas, the December FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25bp, and the dot - plot showed differences among Fed officials. The market strengthened its easing expectations, with U.S. bond yields showing a pattern of short - term weakness and long - term strength, and the U.S. dollar index under pressure. In China, the Central Economic Work Conference affirmed 2025 and set the tone for 2026. The November macro - economic data was mediocre, with industrial production weakening, investment slowing down, consumption decreasing, exports being strong, prices differentiating, and credit being weak. Capital market investors were cautious, and the VIX index fluctuated narrowly. Global stock markets and commodities mostly declined, and A - shares showed a differentiated trend. The BDI index dropped significantly. Commodities were more differentiated, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals rising strongly, the energy and chemical sectors being dragged down by weak oil prices, and the black series tumbling due to the deterioration of the real estate market and relatively stable policies [5]. Domestic Market Performance - The domestic bond market showed mixed performance, with short - term bonds stronger than long - term bonds, and the stock index fluctuated and differentiated. The growth - style stocks performed better than value - style stocks, and the CSI 500 rebounded significantly. Most domestic commodity categories closed down, with the Wind Commodity Index having a weekly change of 4.4%. Among the 10 commodity category indices, 3 rose and 7 fell. Precious metals soared by more than 4%, non - ferrous metals were strong, and soft commodities were resistant to decline. Other sectors all declined, with the energy and chemical sectors being weak, and the black series and non - metallic building materials having large declines [6]. - In terms of the futures market capital flow, funds in the commodity futures market flowed out significantly overall. The precious metals and soft commodities sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the energy, grain, and agricultural and sideline products sectors had significant capital outflows [6][18]. - Regarding commodity volatility, the volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index decreased slightly, while the volatility of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index increased. The volatility of commodity futures categories showed mixed performance, with the chemical and oil and fat sectors having obvious volatility declines, and the non - ferrous and energy sectors having notable volatility increases [6]. Fed's Situation - The CME's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January changed little, with the probability of maintaining the interest rate at 3.5 - 3.75% at 72.7%, similar to last week's 61.6%, and the probability of a 25bp cut to 3.25 - 3.5% remaining at less than 30%. The market expects 1 - 3 more interest rate cuts in 2026 [7]. - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range from 3.75% - 4.00% to 3.50% - 3.75% at the December FOMC meeting, with a total of 75bp cuts this year. The Fed also announced the start of reserve management to rebuild liquidity buffers in the money market [77][78]. - The Fed raised the GDP growth expectations for this year and the next three years, with the largest increase of 0.5 percentage points for next year. It slightly lowered the unemployment rate expectation for 2027 by 0.1 percentage points and slightly lowered the PCE inflation and core PCE inflation expectations for this year and next year by 0.1 percentage points each [84]. - The dot - plot shows that the Fed still expects one 25bp interest rate cut next year, and the interest rate path prediction is consistent with three months ago. There are still differences among Fed officials, with three members voting against the 25bp interest rate cut at the December meeting [90][96]. China's Economic Situation - In November, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the core CPI increasing by 1.2% year - on - year, remaining the same as last month. PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with a 0.1% month - on - month increase. The inflation data showed differentiation, and more efforts are needed to promote the recovery of prices [109][110]. - The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that the core contradiction in the current economic operation is the strong supply and weak demand in China, and there are three intertwined challenges. The conference emphasized that these are "problems in development and transformation" and aimed to manage expectations and boost confidence [113]. - In November, China's industrial production weakened, investment slowed down, consumption decreased, exports were strong, prices differentiated, and credit was weak [117]. This Week's Focus - The market is concerned about a series of postponed U.S. economic data, including the November non - farm payroll report and CPI, as well as the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. It is expected that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, and the Bank of England may cut interest rates by 25bp [7]. - A series of economic data and central bank interest rate decisions from various countries will be announced this week, including China's November economic data, U.S. inflation and employment data, and the interest rate decisions of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Russian Central Bank [121].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market is in a state of oversupply, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate weakly. Although crude oil prices rebounded temporarily due to factors such as the US seizing oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela and imposing new sanctions on Venezuela, as well as Kazakhstan's lower - than - expected exports, the resumption of the West Qurna 2 oilfield by Lukoil in Iraq, the higher - than - expected increase in US refined oil inventories, and the US's efforts to promote peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have led to crude oil prices hitting a one - month low [3][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to keep the organization's overall oil production unchanged in 2026. Eight additional voluntary - cut producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in Q1 2026. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil inventories was less than expected, while the increase in refined oil inventories exceeded expectations. US crude oil production increased slightly and is near the historical high. The risk premium of Russian crude oil due to sanctions has declined. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela have escalated, and there are concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya. The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the US has continued to decline. The market still worries about crude oil demand. The number of US oil drilling rigs has increased, OPEC+ has continued to increase production, and Middle East exports have risen. The global floating crude oil storage has continued to increase. The 3rd SPM of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which is under maintenance, is expected to resume around the 15th. Iraq has recently resumed the West Qurna 2 oilfield. Saudi Aramco has set the price of "Arab Light Crude Oil" sold to Asia in January next year at a premium of $0.6 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai crude oil average price, the lowest level since January 2021 [3]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply Side - OPEC's crude oil production in October 2025 was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 2,848,100 barrels per day, and its production in November decreased by 1,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2,848,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Iraq and Iran. OPEC+ crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day compared to October, reaching 43.06 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of December 5 increased by 38,000 barrels per day to 1,385,300 barrels per day, near the historical high. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 200,000 barrels month - on - month to 411.9 million barrels, the highest since the week of September 30, 2022, and has increased for 20 consecutive weeks [13]. 3.3 Performance of Refined Oil Products in Europe and the US - The gasoline crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $0.5 per barrel and $1.0 per barrel respectively, and the diesel crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $2.5 per barrel and $4.0 per barrel respectively [22]. 3.4 US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.417 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.31%, and the year - on - year high margin decreased. Among them, the weekly gasoline demand increased by 1.56% to 8.456 million barrels per day, the four - week average demand was 8.509 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.27%; the weekly diesel demand increased by 21.22% to 4.158 million barrels per day, the four - week average demand was 3.708 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.42%. The significant month - on - month rebound in diesel demand drove the month - on - month increase of the single - week supply of US crude oil products by 4.42% [27]. 3.5 US Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of December 10, EIA data showed that for the week ending December 5, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels, less than the expected decrease of 2.31 million barrels, and 3.21% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 6.397 million barrels, more than the expected increase of 2.764 million barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 2.502 million barrels, more than the expected increase of 1.943 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 200,000 barrels. The decline in US crude oil inventories was less than expected, while the increase in refined oil inventories exceeded expectations [35]. 3.6 Geopolitical Risks - On the 13th local time, the governor of Odessa Oblast in Ukraine said that Odessa was subjected to a large - scale air strike by Russia, with most areas in Odessa experiencing water and heating outages and some areas having power outages. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Ukraine's first wish is to join NATO for real security guarantees, but due to the non - support of the US and some European partners, Ukraine agrees to accept security guarantees similar to Article 5 of the NATO collective defense clause provided by the US and Europe. EU governments have reached an agreement to freeze the assets of the Russian central bank in Europe indefinitely; the Russian central bank has sued Euroclear Bank and warned the EU not to touch the frozen assets [41].

冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年12月15日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.1个百分点至27.8%，较去年同期低了0.9个百分点，仍处于近年同期最低水 平。据隆众资讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨， 减幅为13.8%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青开工环比下跌2个百分点至27%，受到资金和天 气制约。上周，华北地区炼厂多控量交付前期合同，其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少9.69%至25.34万吨， 处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比上升，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。伊拉克部分前期故障油田恢复生 产，美国仍在极力促成俄乌和谈，欧美成品油裂解价差持续下跌，原油价格偏弱震荡。由于美国在委内瑞拉海岸扣 押了一艘大型油轮，美国财政部宣布对委内瑞拉实施新的制裁措 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Guantong Futures Research Report - Polyolefin Weekly Report - Analyst: Su Miaoda - Release Time: December 15, 2025 - Reported Company: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of polyolefins remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and the upward space of polyolefins is expected to be limited in the near future [4]. - Due to the possibility of new plastic production capacity coming on - stream within the year and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to continue to decline [4]. - Plastics and PP are oscillating downward [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 increased by 2.5 percentage points to around 90%, at a neutral level, due to the restart of maintenance devices such as Ningxia Baofeng HDPE Phase II [14]. - PP企业开工率 rose 3.5 percentage points to around 85%, also at a neutral level, as maintenance devices like Zhong'an United's single - line restarted [14]. 2. Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of December 12, PE下游开工率 decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing, and the overall PE downstream开工率 is at a relatively low level in recent years [20]. - As of the week of December 12, PP下游开工率 increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, at a relatively low level over the years. However, the weaving开工率 of the drawing main downstream decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than last year [20]. 3. Plastic基差 - The decline of the spot price is smaller than that of the futures price, and the basis of the 01 contract rose to 214 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [23]. 4. Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 680,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical inventory reduction has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [27].