Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - On September 4th, industrial silicon showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,515 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.12%. The position decreased by 2,437 lots to 277,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,369 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 product回调 to 8,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 40 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 52,195 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.55%. The position decreased by 3,260 lots to 146,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 49,000 yuan/ton. The spot discount widened to 3,410 yuan/ton. The resumption of production in the north and south of industrial silicon and the increase in crystalline silicon production have become marginal drivers, and the overall operating center is expected to rise slightly. After the previous anti-involution news was fully priced in, the trading center of polysilicon has gradually shifted to fundamental logic. Due to the limitation of the terminal power station's rate of return, the acceptance of price increases in the component sector has reached its peak, and the silicon material market has cooled down following the downstream market sentiment. Before the introduction of specific policy measures, the market is still in a game between policy support and fundamental drag. Polysilicon has entered a range mode with obvious top and bottom levels, and policy dynamics have a phased disturbance effect on the market. Attention should be paid to the results of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's energy-saving special inspection on September 30th and the inventory clearance situation in the industrial chain. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Research View - On September 4th, industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a fluctuating and strengthening trend. The main factors affecting the market include the resumption of production in the north and south of industrial silicon, the increase in crystalline silicon production, the limitation of the terminal power station's rate of return, and the cooling of the downstream market sentiment. The market is currently in a game between policy support and fundamental drag, and policy dynamics have a phased disturbance effect on the market. [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract remained unchanged at 8,505 yuan/ton. The price of the near-month contract increased by 75 yuan/ton to 8,560 yuan/ton. The spot prices of most grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged, except for the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Tianjin Port, which decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 276 to 50,072, and the total social inventory increased by 7,000 tons to 442,900 tons. [3] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 35 yuan/ton to 52,195 yuan/ton, and the price of the near-month contract increased by 80 yuan/ton to 52,410 yuan/ton. The spot prices of most grades of polysilicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount increased by 80 yuan/ton to 3,410 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 6,870, and the total social inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 245,000 tons. [3] - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of most organic silicon products remained unchanged, except for the price of dimethyl silicone oil, which increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton. [3] 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, the price differences between grades, the regional price differences, the electricity prices, the silicon stone prices, and the refined coal prices. [4][6][10] - **Downstream Product Prices**: The charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [13][16][18] - **Inventory**: The charts show the inventory of industrial silicon futures, industrial silicon warehouses, industrial silicon weekly industry inventory, industrial silicon weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory. [22][23][25] - **Cost and Profit**: The charts show the average cost levels and average profit levels of the main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon. [28][30][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4][5][6] Core Viewpoints - The oil price is oscillating due to factors such as inventory changes, OPEC+ production decisions, and market expectations [1] - The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC are also expected to oscillate, with their trends depending on various factors including cost, supply, demand, and market sentiment [2][4][5][6] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices fell. The EIA inventory report showed an increase in US commercial crude and SPR inventories, a decrease in gasoline inventory, and an increase in distillate inventory. US domestic crude production and refinery processing volume decreased. OPEC+ meeting agenda is yet to be set, and some members may increase production. The oil price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the fuel oil futures prices fell. The Chinese refinery operating rate increased. The inflow of low-sulfur fuel oil from the West is expected to decrease, and the high-sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may also decline. However, the overall demand for high and low sulfur fuel oil remains weak. The prices of FU and LU have some upward momentum but depend on the oil price [2] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the asphalt futures price fell. The domestic asphalt shipments increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt decreased. In September, the demand in the north may increase, but the supply in North and Northeast China may limit the price increase. The overall supply pressure is limited, and the price may rise further [2] - **Polyester**: On Thursday, the TA futures price fell, and the EG futures price rose. PX supply is high, and downstream TA maintenance volume increases. The terminal demand is weak, and the demand in the peak season is under test. The EG spot liquidity is tight, but the inventory may increase in the future [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the RU and NR futures prices rose, and the BR futures price fell. The weather in the producing areas may be affected by La Nina. The raw material prices fluctuate slightly, and the demand is stable domestically and weak externally. The heavy truck sales are good, and the inventory is slightly reduced. The rubber price is expected to oscillate [4][5] - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the methanol spot price is stable. The MTO device may resume production due to improved profits, and the demand in September is expected to pick up. The supply increment is limited, and the price is expected to enter a bottom area [5] - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the polyolefin prices are stable. In September, the supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is gradually transferred to the downstream. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly [5] - **PVC**: On Thursday, the PVC market prices are adjusted. The real estate construction is weak, and the demand for PVC downstream products is limited. The export is expected to decline due to the anti-dumping tax. The PVC price in September is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on September 4th and 5th, 2025 [7] Market News - The EIA inventory report shows the changes in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, as well as domestic production and refinery processing volume [9] - OPEC's oil production in August may increase, mainly due to the output growth of the UAE and Saudi Arabia. OPEC+ is accelerating the relaxation of production cuts, while some members are required to make additional cuts [9] Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [11][13][15][17][19][21] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [23][25][29][31][33][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread trends of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [37][39][42][45][48][49][52] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio trends between different varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [54][59] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the cash flow and production profit trends of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [62][64] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [67][68][69][70]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-09-05 一、指数走势 09 月 04 日，上证综指涨跌幅-1.25%，收于 3765.88 点，成交额 11078.92 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-2.83%，收于 12118.7 点，成交额 14363.65 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-2.3%，成交额 4885.95 亿元，其中开盘价 7214.72，收盘价 7041.15，当日最高价 7255.0，最低价 6939.66； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-2.48%，成交额 4719.91 亿元，其中开盘价 6884.36，收盘价 6698.45，当日最高价 6906.69，最低价 6607.98； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅-2.12%，成交额 7731.25 亿元，其中开盘价 4461.25，收盘价 4365.21，当日最高价 4465.5，最低价 4327.51； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅-1.71%，成交额 2080.35 亿元，其中开盘价 2949.97，收盘价 2910.47，当日最高价 2949.97，最低价 2879.41。 图表 1：中证 1000、中证 500、沪深 300、上证 50 日内走势（%） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index Futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: Volatile [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term correction of the A - share market is normal due to factors such as the liquidation of previous profit - taking positions. In the long run, the dovish stance of the Fed meeting and the expected multiple interest rate cuts within the year will benefit the A - share market. Policy adjustments in the real estate sector and the implementation of the parenting subsidy system will also have a positive impact on the market. The liquidity market is expected to continue, showing obvious structural characteristics and accelerated sector rotation [1]. - After the continuous decline in August, the adjustment of the bond market is basically in place. However, the continuous strengthening of the equity market under the anti - involution expectation is negative for long - term bonds. Short - term bonds are relatively stable under the expectation of sufficient liquidity, with short - term bonds expected to remain stable and long - term bonds to have greater fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Stock Index Futures - On September 4, the A - share market continued to correct, with the Wind All - A index down 2.02% and a trading volume of 2.58 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices all declined. Since August, the A - share market has shown a "narrowing" trend, with high trading congestion in some themes. The Fed's dovish stance and expected interest rate cuts, real estate policy adjustments, and the implementation of the parenting subsidy system are all positive factors for the A - share market [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Thursday, the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year Treasury bond futures contracts rose, while the 2 - year contract fell. The central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan. In August, the bond market sentiment was suppressed, and the yield curve steepened. Currently, the adjustment of the bond market is basically in place, but long - term bonds face pressure from the strong equity market [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - On September 4, compared with September 3, IH fell 1.67%, IF fell 1.82%, IC fell 2.09%, and IM fell 1.95%. Among the stock indices, the SSE 50 fell 1.71%, the SSE 300 fell 2.12%, the CSI 500 fell 2.48%, and the CSI 1000 fell 2.30% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - On September 4, compared with September 3, TS fell 0.02%, TF rose 0.03%, T rose 0.09%, and TL rose 0.15% [3]. 3.3 Market News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 to 2026", aiming to promote "using domestic products", strengthen policy support for key enterprises in the industrial chain, and improve the resilience and security of the industrial chain [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM futures contracts, showing their price trends and basis changes from January 2024 to July 2025 [6][9][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends, yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates of Treasury bond futures contracts, covering data from 2023 to 2025 [14][16][18]. Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, and forward exchange rates, as well as the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates from 2023 to 2025 [21][22][27].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 9 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 0.27%，报收 66.23 美分/磅，CF601 环比下降 0.71%，报收 13990 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比上涨 2765 手至 52.45 万手，新疆地区棉花市场价约 15300 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下跌 100 元/吨，全国棉花市场均价 15387 元/吨，较前一日下降 | | | | 72 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期宏观层面仍需持续关注，美元指数坚挺，美棉价格 | | | | 重心略有下移，短期基本面驱动有限，关注后续降息预期与天气变化。国内市场方 | | | | 面，昨日郑棉期价重心环比小幅下移，仍在 14000 元/吨关口上下震荡，近期宏观 | | | | 层面仍有扰动，关注上证调增幅度。基本面角度来看，旧棉库存相对偏紧，但新棉 | | | | 即将上市，9 月末库存最低位也不会出现缺口，11 合约缺乏上行驱动。01 合约对 | | | | 应新棉，多空均有驱动，丰产预期 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn futures showed an adjustment performance on Wednesday, with the November contract encountering resistance and falling back. The spot market's supply is expected to increase before the new grain is on the market, and the corn price is showing a weak performance. The futures market has rebounded recently, which has a certain positive impact on market sentiment. Technically, the November contract of corn encountered resistance and fell back at the 2200 yuan integer mark on Wednesday, and the futures price returned to a volatile performance [2]. - CBOT soybeans fell to a two - week low on Wednesday due to concerns about the demand prospects of US soybeans. In the domestic market, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to fluctuate, with a small increase. The strategy is to participate in the short - term [2]. - BMD palm oil fell on Wednesday, dragged down by the trends of competing vegetable oils and crude oil. The domestic oil prices oscillated and adjusted, with palm oil rising and then falling. The strategy is to participate in the short - term [2]. - The main contract of eggs on Wednesday continued to rebound, and the spot price was mostly stable with a few small increases. The egg price is expected to have a seasonal rebound according to the normal seasonal pattern, but it is affected by the supply - side pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the change in the number of old hens being culled. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3]. - The main contract of live pigs on Wednesday oscillated and adjusted. The fundamentals and market sentiment have not changed much compared with the previous period, and the live pig price is expected to remain volatile. Pay attention to whether the future demand and market sentiment can boost the market [3]. Group 3: Market Information - On September 5, 2025, Sinograin's e - commerce platform will organize a special session for the competitive sale of domestic soybeans, with 45,299 tons of domestic soybeans for sale [4]. - On September 5, Sinograin's e - commerce trading center will organize a two - way competitive trading session for sunflower oil, with 3,450 tons of grade - three sunflower oil for trading [4]. - A research institution predicts that Australia's rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season will increase to 5.9 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous forecast, due to good weather conditions [4]. - Indian palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month to 993,000 tons, reaching the highest level in 13 months, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28% month - on - month to 355,000 tons, hitting the lowest level in six months [5]. Group 4: Variety Spreads 4.1 Contract Spreads - The report presents contract spreads such as corn 1 - 5 spread, corn starch 1 - 5 spread, soybeans 1 - 5 spread, soybean meal 1 - 5 spread, soybean oil 1 - 5 spread, palm oil 1 - 5 spread, egg 1 - 5 spread, and live pig 1 - 5 spread [6][7][8][12][16]. 4.2 Contract Basis - The report shows contract basis including corn basis, corn starch basis, soybean basis, soybean meal basis, soybean oil basis, palm oil basis, egg basis, and live pig basis [14][15][18][19][22]. Group 5: Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with multiple honors and rich experience. Her futures qualification number is F0243534, and her trading consultation number is Z0001262 [27]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures experience and many honors. Her futures qualification number is F3048706, and her trading consultation number is Z0013637 [27]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in economics. Her futures qualification number is F3032578, and her trading consultation number is Z0013544 [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On September 3, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract dropped 3.1% to 71,880 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,600 yuan/ton to 75,900 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell by 1,600 yuan/ton to 73,600 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) declined by 350 yuan/ton to 76,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2,111 tons to 34,118 tons [3]. - On the supply side, weekly production continued to slow down with a narrowing decline. Weekly output decreased by 108 tons to 19,030 tons. Lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 70 tons to 12,249 tons, while lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 150 tons to 2,500 tons. In September, lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by 1.7% to 86,730 tons, mainly due to an increase in lithium extraction from spodumene and a small amount from recycling, while lithium extraction from lepidolite and salt lakes is expected to decline. On the demand side, in September, ternary materials are expected to decrease by 1.5% to 72,330 tons, and lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase by 5.96% to 335,250 tons. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline slightly on a weekly basis, with a decrease of 407 tons to 141,136 tons. Downstream and intermediate links showed signs of restocking, while upstream continued to destock [3]. - Recently, prices have dropped rapidly. In the short term, the market is continuously digesting the price increase caused by the suspension of production at Jianxiakeng. After the digestion is complete, the market may re - price the expectations regarding mining permits. The fundamentals in September are relatively good, but attention should be paid to September 30, as Jiangxi lithium mining projects need to complete report compilation and submission by this date, and there may be a conclusion regarding the mining permit issues of other projects at that time [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides price data for various products in the lithium - battery industry chain on September 3 and 2, 2025, including futures, lithium ores, lithium carbonates, lithium hydroxides, hexafluorophosphate lithium, and some battery materials. For example, the closing price of the main futures contract decreased from 72,620 yuan/ton on September 2 to 71,880 yuan/ton on September 3, and the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) dropped from 887 US dollars/ton to 872 US dollars/ton [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite with different Li₂O contents, and amblygonite with different Li₂O contents from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate lithium from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][14]. 3.2.3 Price Spreads - Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and some other price spreads from 2024 to 2025 [17][19][20]. 3.2.4 Precursor and Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][26][28]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from January to August 2025 [37][39]. 3.2.7 Production Cost - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [43].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜铜价窄幅震荡。宏观方面，美国 7 月 JOLTS 就业人数录得 718.1 万人，低于市场 | | | 预期 738.2 万人和前值 743.7 万人，低靡的就业数据继续强化了 9 月降息预期。美联储 | | | 理事沃勒表示未来 3 到 6 个月可多次降息。基本面方面，"金九银十"是国内传统消费 | | 铜 | 旺季，在国内进口连续不及预期及废铜政策不明朗下开工率偏低下，精铜消费有望得 | | | 到较大提振，关注国内去库速度。海外部分国家债市的抛售潮及金价的异动使得市场 | | | 避险情绪走高，铜价表现偏谨慎，但基本面继续改善下，应仍偏乐观看待，重心有望继 | | | 续抬升，但也需要注意美衰退预期及高铜价对下游需求也形成制约，价格上行高度或 | | | 受限。 | | 铝 | 氧化铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AO2601 收于 2959 元/吨，跌幅 2.15%，持仓增仓 13870 手至 26.2 | | | 万手。沪铝震荡偏弱，隔夜 AL2510 收于 20725 元/ ...

Group 1: Research Views - Urea futures price oscillated weakly on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1714 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.89%. The spot market was basically stable. Urea supply fluctuated at a low level, with a daily output of 18.24 tons on September 3. Demand sentiment dropped significantly, and the inventory of urea enterprises increased slightly by 0.85%. The market is waiting for the results of the Indian tender. Before the news is clear, the market sentiment will remain weak, and the volatility may increase with the results of the tender. The outlook is for a volatile trend [1]. - The price of soda ash futures fluctuated widely on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1276 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.24%. The spot market was mostly stable. The operating load of soda ash plants still fluctuated, and the industry's operating rate rose to 86.23% on September 3. Demand was still weak and stable. The supply - demand support for soda ash is limited, and the futures price will mainly show a wide - range oscillating trend. The short - term market sentiment is weak [1]. - The price of glass futures oscillated weakly on Wednesday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1135 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.61%. The spot market quotation was stable. Glass supply remained stable, and the demand follow - up sentiment did not change significantly. The demand for glass has not improved significantly, but manufacturers are reluctant to cut prices. The futures market has limited new drivers, and the market sentiment is temporarily weak, with the market in a bottom - consolidation phase [1]. Group 2: Market Information Urea - On September 3, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts was 7,205, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 961 [4]. - On September 3, the daily output of the urea industry was 18.24 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and 0.2 tons less than the same period last year. The operating rate was 77.96%, a decrease of 4.83 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5]. - On September 3, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions of China remained unchanged, with Shandong at 1710 yuan/ton, Henan at 1720 yuan/ton, etc. [6]. - On September 3, the inventory of urea enterprises was 109.5 tons, an increase of 0.92 tons or 0.85% from last week [7]. Soda Ash & Glass - On September 3, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 5,232, an increase of 150 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 1340. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,026, a decrease of 5 from the previous trading day [9]. - On September 3, the spot prices of soda ash varied by region. For example, in North China, the price of light soda ash was 1220 yuan/ton and heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton [9]. - On September 3, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 86.23%, up from 83.97% the previous working day [10]. - On September 3, the average price of the float glass market was 1156 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily output of the industry was 15.96 tons, also unchanged [10]. Group 3: Chart Analysis - The report includes various charts such as the closing price of the main urea and soda ash contracts, their basis, trading volume and open interest, the price difference between different contract months, and the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, as well as the price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures [12][14][18]. Group 4: Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards [28]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has won many honors [28]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On September 3, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,490 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.29%. The position decreased by 1,738 lots to 279,700 lots. The spot reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon was 9,369 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade silicon dropped back to 8,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 115 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 52,160 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.34%. The position increased by 3,355 lots to 149,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 49,000 yuan/ton. The spot discount widened to 3,300 yuan/ton. The resumption of production in the north and south of industrial silicon and the increase in crystalline silicon production have become marginal drivers, and the overall operating center is expected to rise slightly. After the previous anti-involution news was fully priced in, the trading focus of polysilicon has gradually shifted to fundamental logic. Due to the limitation of terminal power station yields, the acceptance of price increases in the component sector has reached its peak, and the sentiment in the silicon material market has cooled along with the downstream market. Before the introduction of specific policy measures, the market is still in a game between policy boosts and fundamental drags. Polysilicon has entered a range-bound mode with obvious tops and bottoms, and policy dynamics have a phased impact on the market. Attention should be paid to the results of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's energy-saving special inspection on September 30 and the destocking situation in the industrial chain [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 8,505 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 8,485 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 10 yuan to 115 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 319 to 50,348, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 955 tons to 252,265 tons. The inventory at Huangpu Port remained unchanged at 55,000 tons, and the inventory at Tianjin Port decreased by 2,000 tons to 68,000 tons. The inventory at Kunming Port decreased by 1,000 tons to 48,500 tons. The industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 271,400 tons, and the total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 7,000 tons to 442,900 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 285 yuan/ton to 52,160 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 330 yuan/ton to 52,330 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of polysilicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount increased by 330 yuan to 3,330 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 6,870, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 11,040 tons to 206,400 tons. The polysilicon factory inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 245,000 tons, and the total social inventory of polysilicon decreased by 30,000 tons to 245,000 tons [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The spot price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 10,800 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and solar modules [12][16][18]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts show the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [21][24]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [27][29][33].