1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be in a weak consolidation phase. The production of building materials has slightly declined, inventory has continued to accumulate, and demand has been sluggish, putting pressure on prices. The high level of warehouse receipts also affects the futures market [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile trend. Although the global iron ore shipment volume has increased, the iron - water production has decreased, and the inventory of ports and steel mills has also decreased, resulting in a situation of mixed long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to be weak and volatile. For coking coal, domestic mines are affected by production inspections and accidents, and downstream demand is cautious. For coke, although the profit of coking enterprises is acceptable and the subsequent start - up will increase, the steel mill's procurement rhythm has slowed down [1]. - The manganese - silicon and silicon - iron markets are expected to be volatile. For manganese - silicon, the supply is increasing, the steel - procurement price is decreasing, and the cost is stable. For silicon - iron, production is in a loss state, the steel - procurement price has decreased, and the cost is stable [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32%. The spot price was stable or decreased, and the trading volume declined. The production of building materials decreased by 3.29 tons, the social inventory increased by 15.15 tons, the factory inventory increased by 4.5 tons, and the apparent demand increased by 1.4 tons. It is expected to be in a weak consolidation phase [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 777 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.7%. The port spot price was strong. The global shipment volume increased, the iron - water production decreased by 0.62 tons, and the inventory of ports and steel mills decreased. It is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%. The spot price decreased. Domestic mines were affected by production inspections and accidents, and downstream demand was cautious. It is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1594 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%. The spot price was stable. The coking coal price decreased, the profit of coking enterprises was acceptable, and the subsequent start - up will increase, but the steel mill's procurement rhythm slowed down. It is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: The manganese - silicon futures price was volatile and weak, with the main contract at 5732 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28%. The market price was 5500 - 5800 yuan/ton. The supply was increasing, the steel - procurement price was decreasing, and the cost was stable. It is expected to be volatile [1][3]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The silicon - iron futures price was volatile and weak, with the main contract at 5520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. The market price was 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton. Production was in a loss state, the steel - procurement price decreased, and the cost was stable. It is expected to be volatile [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The spread data of various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. are provided, including the 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month spreads, etc., and their changes compared with the previous period [4]. - **Basis**: The basis data of various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. are provided, including the basis of different contracts and their changes compared with the previous period [4]. - **Spot**: The latest spot prices of various varieties in different regions and their changes compared with the previous period are provided [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profit data of rebar (including disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and the spread data of various varieties (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) and their changes compared with the previous period are provided [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 are provided [6][7][10][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. are provided [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts of the spreads of inter - period contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. are provided [26][31][32][33][36][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts of the spreads of inter - variety contracts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. are provided [42][44][46]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts of the profit of rebar (including disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) are provided [47][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Current position is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [53]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Current position is the director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has rich honors in the field of coal futures [53]. - **Liu Xi**: Current position is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [53]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Current position is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][5][6] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting, which could put pressure on oil prices if the increase exceeds expectations. The market is also affected by factors such as Russian oil exports and US inventory data [1] - For fuel oil, the reduction of arbitrage cargo inflows from the West and the expected decrease in high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may provide some support, but overall demand lacks significant highlights [2] - In the asphalt market, the increase in demand in the northern regions in September may drive price increases, but the rise may be limited by increased supply in some areas. The supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease [2] - Polyester products are affected by factors such as high PX supply, increased TA maintenance, and under - expected seasonal improvement in terminal demand, with prices expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [4] - The rubber market is supported by factors such as inventory reduction and favorable heavy - truck sales data, but is also affected by产区 weather and demand conditions, with prices expected to be volatile [4] - Methanol prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area in September due to limited supply growth and expected demand recovery [5] - Polyolefins are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations in September as the supply and demand are both strong and the cost - side is stable [5] - PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September due to weak real - estate construction demand and expected export decline, but there is a risk of policy - driven speculation [6] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices dropped significantly. WTI October contract closed at $63.97/barrel, down $1.62 or - 2.47%. Brent November contract closed at $67.60/barrel, down $1.54 or - 2.23%. SC2510 closed at 483.6 yuan/barrel, down 8.2 yuan or - 1.67%. OPEC+ may consider further increasing production. Russian oil exports in August slightly increased, and US inventory data showed a rise in crude and distillate stocks and a decline in gasoline stocks. The market is waiting for the OPEC+ production decision, and an unexpected increase in production could pressure oil prices [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, FU2510 closed down 0.04% at 2840 yuan/ton, and LU2511 closed down 0.85% at 3512 yuan/ton. The reduction of Western arbitrage cargo inflows and the expected decrease in high - sulfur shipments from Iran and Russia may support the market, but overall demand lacks highlights. US sanctions on Iranian trade may affect high - sulfur fuel oil delivery [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, BU2510 closed down 0.36% at 3550 yuan/ton. This week, the social inventory rate was 32.97%, down 0.46% week - on - week; the refinery inventory was 26.24%, down 0.50% week - on - week; and the refinery operating rate was 33.53%, down 2.90% week - on - week. The increase in demand in the northern regions in September may drive price increases, but supply increases in some areas may limit the rise [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4732 yuan/ton, down 0.5%; EG2601 closed at 4331 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. PX supply is high, TA maintenance is increasing, and terminal demand improvement is under - expected. The prices of polyester products are expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, RU2601 rose 15 yuan/ton to 15885 yuan/ton, NR rose 5 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton, and BR rose 65 yuan/ton to 11885 yuan/ton. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased. The market is affected by factors such as weather, demand, and inventory, with prices expected to be volatile [4] - **Methanol**: The prices of methanol and its downstream products are given. Due to profit recovery, MTO device may resume production, and demand is expected to recover in September. Supply growth is limited, and prices are expected to enter a phased bottom area [5] - **Polyolefins**: The prices and profit margins of polyolefins are provided. In September, supply and demand are both strong, and inventory is transferring from society to downstream. Prices are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The prices in different regions are presented. The real - estate construction recovery is weak, and exports are expected to decline due to anti - dumping duties. Prices are expected to be volatile and weak in September [6] Daily Data Monitoring - The table provides data on the basis of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7] Market News - OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting to regain market share. An additional increase would mean starting to lift the second - layer production cuts, about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule [11] - Russian oil exports by sea slightly increased in August. However, exports to India decreased by 21% month - on - month to 1.3 million barrels per day. The US imposed a 25% punitive tariff on Indian products exported to the US in August [11] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis charts of main contracts for different products are shown, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [25][27][31] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The charts of spreads between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. are provided [39][41][44] - **Inter - product Spreads**: The charts of spreads and ratios between different products are presented, including crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [56][58][62] - **Production Profits**: The production profit charts of products such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are shown [64][65][67] Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, the assistant director and energy and chemical director, Du Bingqin, an analyst for crude oil, etc., Di Yilin, a rubber/polyester analyst, and Peng Haibo, a methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst [70][71][72]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock index: Bullish [1] - Treasury bonds: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has shown a "narrowing" trend since September, with high trading congestion in individual themes. Short - term corrections are normal due to factors like profit - taking. In the long run, the dovish stance of the Fed and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts this year will benefit the A - share market. Shanghai's housing policy adjustments and the implementation of the national child - rearing subsidy system will also have a positive impact. Liquidity - driven market trends will continue with obvious structural features and accelerated sector rotation [1]. - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures closed with gains across different tenors. The central bank conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan due to 379.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities. After continuous declines in August, the bond market adjustment is basically in place, but the strong performance of the equity market due to anti - involution expectations is negative for long - term bonds. Short - term bonds are expected to remain stable, while long - term bonds will see increased volatility [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures | Variety | 2025 - 09 - 03 | 2025 - 09 - 02 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,949.0 | 2,992.8 | - 43.8 | - 1.46% | | IF | 4,430.0 | 4,481.2 | - 51.2 | - 1.14% | | IC | 6,788.8 | 6,896.2 | - 107.4 | - 1.56% | | IM | 7,142.6 | 7,251.4 | - 108.8 | - 1.50% | [3] 3.1.2 Stock Indexes | Variety | 2025 - 09 - 03 | 2025 - 09 - 02 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite 50 | 2,961.0 | 2,992.9 | - 31.9 | - 1.07% | | CSI 300 | 4,459.8 | 4,490.5 | - 30.6 | - 0.68% | | CSI 500 | 6,868.5 | 6,961.7 | - 93.2 | - 1.34% | | CSI 1000 | 7,206.9 | 7,313.9 | - 107.0 | - 1.46% | [3] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | 2025 - 09 - 03 | 2025 - 09 - 02 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.45 | 102.41 | 0.036 | 0.04% | | TF | 105.73 | 105.57 | 0.155 | 0.15% | | T | 108.16 | 107.96 | 0.205 | 0.19% | | TL | 117.15 | 116.68 | 0.47 | 0.40% | [3] 3.2 Market News - China's RatingDog Services PMI in August was 53, up from 52.6 in the previous month. The RatingDog Composite PMI was 51.9, up from 50.8 in the previous month [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the trends of their respective monthly basis [6][7][9][10][11] 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - term spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [14][16][17][18] 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, as well as the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [21][22][23][25][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the index trends, the impact of sector fluctuations on indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and the point differences and annualized costs of stock index futures roll - over on September 3rd [1][2][12][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Trends - On September 3rd, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16% to 3813.56 points with a trading volume of 1012.296 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.65% to 12472.0 points with a trading volume of 1351.79 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index fell 1.46% with a trading volume of 486.667 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index fell 1.34% with a trading volume of 449.58 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index fell 1.07% with a trading volume of 161.065 billion yuan; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.68% with a trading volume of 655.697 billion yuan [1] 3.2 Impact of Sector Fluctuations on Indices - The CSI 1000 dropped 107.0 points compared to the previous closing price, and sectors such as non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, and computer significantly pulled the index down [2] - The CSI 500 dropped 93.23 points compared to the previous closing price, and sectors such as computer, non - bank finance, and national defense and military industry significantly pulled the index down [2] - The CSI 300 dropped 30.62 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as power equipment and communication significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as banks, electronics, and non - bank finance significantly pulled the index down [2] - The SSE 50 dropped 31.89 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as pharmaceutical biology significantly pulled the index up, while sectors such as banks, electronics, and non - bank finance significantly pulled the index down [2] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 72.73, IM01 had - 133.83, IM02 had - 271.16, and IM03 had - 448.11 [12] - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 79.74, IC01 had - 130.22, IC02 had - 237.48, and IC03 had - 382.87 [12] - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 16.61, IF01 had - 23.0, IF02 had - 42.88, and IF03 had - 63.45 [12] - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 4.99, IH01 had - 5.58, IH02 had - 6.58, and IH03 had - 4.13 [12] 3.4 Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides the point differences and annualized costs of roll - over for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts at different time points, such as for the IF contract, at 09:45, the point differences between different contracts (e.g., IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678) are presented [20][21][23][24][25]

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 9 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 点评 2 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 8470 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.13%，持 仓减仓 3969 手至 28.1 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9369 元/吨，较上 一交易上调 5 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格回调至 8600 元/吨，现货升 水收至 105 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2511 收于 51875 元/吨，日 内涨幅 3.97%，持仓减仓 4554 手至 14.6 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价 格涨至 49000 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 49000 元/吨，现货贴水 扩至 3000 元/吨。工业硅南北复产和晶硅增量成为边际驱动，整体运行 重心有望小幅抬升。前期反内卷消息充分计价后，多晶硅交易重心逐 步偏移至基本面逻辑。因终端电站收益率限制，组件环节对涨价的接 受度见顶，硅料跟随下游市场情绪降温。在具体政策举措出台之前， 市场仍位于政策提振和基本面拖累的博弈之间，多晶硅进入顶底明显 的区间模式，政策动态对盘面有阶段性扰动效应。重点关注 930 工信部 节能专项监察结果以及产业链库存去化情况 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 2, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 4.3% to 72,620 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 850 yuan/ton to 77,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate dropped by 850 yuan/ton to 75,200 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell by 300 yuan/ton to 76,350 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 810 tons to 32,007 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, weekly production continued to slow down with a narrowing decline. Weekly output decreased by 108 tons to 19,030 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 70 tons to 12,249 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 150 tons to 2,500 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased by 37 tons to 2,515 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 9 tons to 1,766 tons. In terms of demand, according to the production scheduling data of market consulting agencies, the production scheduling of cathode materials in September increased by 5 - 6% month-on-month. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline slightly on a weekly basis, decreasing by 407 tons to 141,136 tons. Among them, downstream inventory increased by 1,293 tons to 52,800 tons, intermediate link inventory increased by 1,810 tons to 45,000 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 3,510 tons to 43,336 tons, indicating restocking in the downstream and intermediate links and continuous destocking upstream [3]. - Recently, the price has dropped rapidly. In the short term, the market is continuously digesting the increase brought about by the suspension of production at Jianxiakeng. After the digestion is completed, the market may re - price the expectations regarding the mining license issue. The fundamentals in September are relatively good, but attention should be paid to September 30, as Jiangxi lithium mining projects need to complete report compilation and submission by this date, and there may be a conclusion regarding the mining license issues of other projects at that time [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Futures, spot prices, and warehouse receipt inventory changes on September 2, 2025 [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory situation in the lithium carbonate market [3]. - Analysis of short - term price trends and attention points in September [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Price changes of various products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain from September 1 to September 2, 2025, including futures, lithium ores, lithium carbonates, lithium hydroxides, and other products [5]. - Price differences between different products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain, such as the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][14]. 3.3 Price Differences - Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other price differences from 2024 to 2025 [17][19][20]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide from 2024 to 2025 [24][26][28]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33][34]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from 2025 [37][39]. 3.7 Production Costs - Chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [43].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 9 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 光大期货煤化工商品日报 二、市场信息 尿素 1、郑商所数据：9 月 2 日尿素期货仓单 7205 张，较上一交易日无变化，有效预报 886 张。 2、隆众数据：9 月 2 日尿素行业日产 18.26 万吨，较上一工作日下降 0.11 万吨；较去年同期 减少 0.1 万吨；今日开工 78.05%，较去年同期 83.25%下降 5.20 个百分点。 3、9 月 2 日国内各地区小颗粒尿素现货价格（隆众；元/吨）：山东 1710，+10；河南 1720， 持平；河北 1720，-10；安徽 1720，-20；江苏 1720，+10；山西 1610，持平。 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二尿素期货价格偏强震荡，主力 01 合约收盘价 1746 元/吨，涨幅 0.52%。现货市 场窄幅波动，山东、河南地区市场价格分别为 1710 元/吨、1720 元/吨，日环比分别 | | | | 涨 10 元/吨、持平。基本面来看，尿素供应阶段性低位波动，昨日行业日产量 18.26 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term. The production of rebar has been rising, demand is low, and inventory is accumulating. Many steel mills are at the break - even point or in loss, leading to an increase in maintenance. [1] - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term. Supply has increased slightly, while demand has decreased, and inventory has declined. [1] - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to operate weakly with fluctuations in the short - term. Due to factors such as the military parade and weak steel market, supply is affected, and demand is weakening. [1] - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to be volatile in the short - term. For manganese silicon, production is increasing, and cost support is weak; for ferrosilicon, production is at a high level, and demand and cost factors are complex. [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Rebar**: As of September 1, some steel mills in Tangshan carried out blast furnace maintenance, with an estimated daily impact on hot metal of about 122,300 tons. Most blast furnaces are expected to resume production on September 4. The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton on September 3, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume rebounded. [1] - **Iron Ore**: The i2601 contract closed at 771.5 yuan/ton on September 3, up 5.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Port spot prices were strong. Australian shipments decreased slightly, Brazilian shipments increased, and global shipments increased. Iron ore demand decreased, and inventory at ports and steel mills declined. [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1112.5 yuan/ton on September 3, down 6 yuan/ton. Spot prices in the Mongolian coal market were mixed. Supply was tight in the short - term due to the military parade, and demand was weak due to high steel billet inventory and low steel prices. [1] - **Coke**: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1596.5 yuan/ton on September 3, up 2 yuan/ton. Spot prices at ports were stable. Coking enterprise profits were good, but production was restricted, and demand was weakening due to the high - level inventory of steel billets and low steel prices. [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures price rebounded, with the main contract closing at 5744 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. The market price was 5500 - 5700 yuan/ton. Production was increasing, and cost support was weak. [1][3] - **Ferrosilicon**: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5528 yuan/ton, up 0.77%. The market price was about 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton. Production was at a high level, and new steel tenders were ongoing with price cuts. [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: For rebar, the 10 - 1 spread was - 70.0 (up 6.0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 48.0 (up 2.0); for hot - rolled coil, the 10 - 1 spread was 12.0 (down 5.0), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 14.0 (down 3.0); for other varieties, the spreads also showed different changes. [4] - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 193.0 (down 18.0), and the basis of the 01 - contract was 123.0 (down 12.0). [4] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions of each variety had different changes. For example, the rebar price in Shanghai was 3240.0 yuan/ton (down 10.0), and the price in Beijing was 3180.0 yuan/ton (down 10.0). [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Rebar's long - process profit was - 17.2 (down 17.2), short - process profit was 25.6 (up 48.4), and various spreads such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore spread also changed. [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: There are charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025. [6][7][8][9][10][11][15] - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of the main contracts of various varieties from 2022 - 2026. [17][18][19][21][22][23][24] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) of various varieties from 2001 - 2026. [26][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][40] - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) from 2020 - 2025. [42][43][44][46] - **Rebar Profit**: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 - 2025. [47][48][50][51] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the field of black commodities research. [53][54]

Group 1: Research Views - For cotton, on Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.74%, closing at 66.05 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.18% to 14,045 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions decreased by 7,167 hands to 521,800 hands. The 3128B - grade cotton spot price index was about 15,200 yuan per ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day. The U.S. cotton price remained weakly volatile due to macro - level factors and limited fundamental drivers. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton maintained a volatile trend. The 11 - contract is supported by tight old - cotton inventory, but the support will weaken as new cotton is listed. The 01 - contract has both long and short drivers, with strong support at the bottom based on seed - cotton purchase cost, and is expected to be in a firm and volatile state [2]. - For sugar, the International Sugar Organization predicts a supply deficit of only 231,000 tons in the 2025/26 sugar season, a significant difference from the revised 4.879 million - ton deficit in the 2024/25 season. The global sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season, and consumption is expected to reach 180.824 million tons, up 771,000 tons. Domestic sugar prices are showing a downward trend, and the futures price may continue to seek support. Attention should be paid to imported sugar [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 50 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main - contract basis is 1,367 yuan, down 87 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,324 yuan per ton, down 68 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,412 yuan per ton, down 67 yuan [3]. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 38 yuan, up 3 yuan; the main - contract basis is 356 yuan, unchanged. The Nanning spot price is 5,900 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 5,955 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [3]. Group 3: Market Information - On September 2, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 6,131, down 189 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4]. - On September 2, the domestic cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,324 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,406 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,440 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,517 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On September 2, the comprehensive yarn load was 49.8, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive yarn inventory was 27, down 0.1; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth load was 49.3, up 0.1; and the comprehensive short - fiber cloth inventory was 31.2, down 0.1 [4]. - On September 2, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,900 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day, and the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,955 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [4]. - On September 2, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 13,202, down 232 from the previous trading day, with 6 valid forecasts [5]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes charts of cotton and sugar, such as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][10][15][18] Group 5: Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards related to sugar analysis [20]. - Zhang Linglu, a master of accounting and finance from the University of Bristol, is a resource - product analyst at Everbright Futures, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many awards [21]. - Sun Chengzhen, a financial master from Yunnan University, is a resource - product analyst at Everbright Futures, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferro - alloy, and has won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile - category senior analyst title [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs) are rated as "Oscillating" [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products on September 3, 2025, including price trends, supply - demand situations, and relevant influencing factors, and provides corresponding investment strategies for each variety [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, corn prices rose with reduced positions. The 9 - month contract is approaching delivery, and the 11 - month contract's positions continue to decline. The spot market expects an increase in supply before the new grain is listed, and prices are weak. In the Northeast, prices are mainly weak. New corn may be listed in Liaoning Heishan from September 5 - 10. Rain in North China affected corn, with some enterprise prices up 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The market is waiting for new corn. Technically, the 11 - month contract had six consecutive positive days, with large price fluctuations. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating view before the new grain is listed [2] - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fell due to low demand expectations. US soybean meal followed, while US soybean oil rose. US soybean weekly export inspection was 47.2 tons, and the monthly crushing volume in July was 614 tons. The excellent - good rate was 65%. Domestically, soybean meal prices oscillated. Brazilian soybean premiums fell, and domestic inventories increased. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [2] - **Oils**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil rose due to bargain - hunting and strong exports. Indian palm oil imports in August increased significantly. Domestically, oil prices rose, with palm oil performing the best. However, weak consumption and high inventories limited the increase. It is recommended to go long in the short - term [2] - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, the main 2510 egg contract oscillated at a low level and then rebounded. Spot prices were mostly stable, with some small increases. Seasonally, egg prices should rebound in late August, but supply pressure keeps prices weak. In the long - term, pay attention to old hen culling [2][3] - **Hogs**: On Tuesday, the main 2511 hog futures contract oscillated weakly and then rebounded. Spot prices were mostly stable, with regional differences. The supply in the north increased, and prices fell, while the south had price support. The market expects prices to oscillate, and attention should be paid to future demand and market sentiment [3] 3.2 Market Information - Ukraine will impose a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseeds until January 1, 2030, then it will decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5% [4] - Malaysian palm oil exports in August increased by 30.53% (SGS data) or 15.37% (AmSpec data) compared to the previous month, and production decreased by 2.65% [4] - Indian palm oil imports in August increased by 16% to 99.3 tons, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28% to 35.5 tons [4] - As of September 1, Ukrainian farmers had sown 37.71 hectares of winter rapeseed, accounting for 33.8% of the estimated area [5] 3.3 Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads (1 - 5 spreads) and contract basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs, with data sourced from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [7][8][12][14][15][16][18][19][22][25] 3.4 Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst; and Kong Hailan, a researcher for eggs and hogs. They have rich experience and many honors [27]