Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Core Views The reports mainly present the latest data and changes of various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, container shipping futures, etc., as well as relevant economic data and event schedules. There is no clear overall core view. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Spread Data**: Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical quantiles, and all - time quantiles of various price spreads of stock index futures, such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including spot - futures spreads, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **IRR and Basis**: Provides the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of the implied repo rate (IRR) and basis of various treasury bond futures, including TS, TF, T, and TL [2]. - **Inter - period and Cross - variety Spreads**: Presents the inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures, along with their percentiles [2]. Precious Metal Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Shows the domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, changes, and change rates of precious metals (gold and silver) [3]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Provides the basis values, historical quantiles, and price ratios of precious metals [3]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Inventory, and Positions**: Presents relevant data on interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals [3]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Lists the spot quotes of container shipping from Shanghai to Europe of different shipping companies and their changes [4]. - **Container Shipping Index**: Shows the settlement price indexes of container shipping and their changes [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Presents the futures prices, changes, and basis values of container shipping futures [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on container shipping capacity supply, foreign trade - related indicators, and overseas economic data [4]. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information - **Overseas Data**: Lists the economic indicators and financial events of different countries and regions, including macro data, energy and chemical data, and agricultural product data [6]. - **Domestic Data**: Presents the economic indicators and financial events of different domestic varieties, including black and non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, and special commodities [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present the daily price differences, price changes, and percentile data of various futures, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, as well as relevant spot prices, inventory, and economic data [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: The latest values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical percentiles, and all - time historical percentiles of various price differences (such as spot - futures price differences and inter - period price differences) of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented. For example, the IF spot - futures price difference is - 10.57, with a change of - 1.41 from the previous day, and a 1 - year historical percentile of 35.20% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: The latest values, changes, and percentiles of cross - variety ratios (such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF) are provided. For instance, the CSI 500/CSI 300 ratio is 1.5042, with a change of - 0.0043 from the previous day, and a 1 - year historical percentile of 75.00% [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: The latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentiles of IRR and basis for TS, TF, and TL are given. For example, the TS basis is - 0.0075, with a historical percentile of 25.50% [2]. - **Inter - Period Price Differences**: The latest values, changes, and historical percentiles of inter - period price differences (such as current quarter - next quarter) for different varieties are presented. For instance, the TS current quarter - next quarter price difference is - 0.1760, with a change of - 0.0040 from the previous day, and a historical percentile of 11.10% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Price Differences**: The latest values, changes, and historical percentiles of cross - variety price differences (such as TS - TF, TS - T) are provided. For example, the TS - TF price difference is 0.0670, with a historical percentile of 9.40% [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metal futures contracts (such as AU2510, COMEX gold) and spot prices (such as London gold) on different dates, as well as their price changes and percentage changes, are presented. For example, the AU2510 contract closed at 792.90 yuan/gram on July 23, with a price increase of 8.06 yuan and a percentage increase of 1.03% compared to July 22 [3]. - **Basis and Ratios**: The latest values, changes, and historical percentiles of basis (such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract) and ratios (such as COMEX gold/silver) are given. For instance, the gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 4.71, with a change of 0.13 from the previous day, and a 1 - year historical percentile of 5.60% [3]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Inventory, and Positions**: The latest values, changes, and percentage changes of interest rates (such as 10 - year US Treasury bond yield), exchange rates (such as US dollar index), inventory (such as Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory), and positions (such as SPDR gold ETF position) are provided. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield is 4.40, with a change of 0.05 from the previous day, and a percentage increase of 1.1% [3]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: The spot quotes of container shipping from Shanghai to Europe of different shipping companies (such as MAERSK, CMA CGM) on July 24 and July 23, as well as their price changes and percentage changes, are presented. For example, the MAERSK quote is 3099 US dollars/FEU on July 24, with a price decrease of 104 US dollars and a percentage decrease of - 3.25% compared to July 23 [4]. - **Shipping Indexes**: The settlement price indexes of SCFIS (European route and US West route), Shanghai export container freight rates (such as SCFI composite index), and their price changes and percentage changes are provided. For instance, the SCFIS (European route) settlement price index is 2400.50 on July 21, with a price increase of 1098.7 and a percentage increase of 84.40% compared to July 14 [4]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The futures prices of EC2602, EC2604, etc., and the basis of the main contract, as well as their price changes and percentage changes, are presented. For example, the EC2602 futures price is 1477.3 on July 23, with a price increase of 16.8 and a percentage increase of 1.15% compared to July 22 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity supply, port on - time rate, port berthing situation, monthly export amount, and overseas economic indicators (such as Eurozone composite PMI) are provided. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply is 3271.60 million TEU on July 24, with no change from July 23 [4]. Data and Information - **Overseas Data**: The release time, data sources, and economic indicators of different sectors (such as macro, energy and chemical, and agricultural products) in overseas regions (such as the Eurozone and the US) are presented. For example, the Eurozone will release the July manufacturing PMI preliminary value and the European Central Bank deposit mechanism rate at 16:00 - 20:15 on July 24 [6]. - **Domestic Data**: The release time, data sources, and economic indicators of different sectors (such as black and non - ferrous metals, energy and chemical, and special commodities) in the domestic market are provided. For example, the steel industry will release the weekly output, inventory, and apparent demand data in the afternoon [6].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | F EF FUTUR | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 2025年7月24日 | | | 王速框 | Z0019938 | | 原田 | | | | | | | 7月23日 | | | 7月22日 | 张庆 | 张跌幅 | | 江苏一级 现价 | | 8310 | 8330 | -20 | -0.24% | | 期价 Y2509 | | 8074 | 8076 | -2 | -0.02% | | 墓差 Y2509 | | 236 | 254 | -18 | -7.09% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏7月 | | 09 + 160 | 09+160 | 0 | - | | 仓单 | | 21695 | 21695 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | 7月23日 | | | 7月22日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 | | 9000 | 9000 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 P2509 | | 8994 | 8 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 7 月 24 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周三，早盘 A 股震荡起伏，午后冲高回落。截至收盘，上证指数涨 0.01%，报 3582.30 点。深成指跌 0.37%，创业板指跌 0.01%，沪深 300 涨 0.02%、上证 50 涨 0.32%，中证 500 跌 0.27%、中证 100 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The market saw double destocking in both inland and ports. Reasons include slower port unloading and improved MTO profits leading to port purchases. Inland prices fluctuated slightly, with high maintenance losses in July and复产 expectations later. Demand was restricted by the traditional off - season, and new capacity launches affected the market. In ports, the basis strengthened, and with the return of Iranian production, imports were expected to be 1.25 million tons in July and decline slightly in August. MTO maintenance was uncertain after profit repair [1]. - **Urea**: The market was in a state of 'strong expectation vs. weak reality'. The potential for large - scale and long - term maintenance in major production areas was a potential positive factor, but demand was in a lull. The market was mainly affected by the contradiction between supply contraction expectations and weak actual demand, and policy sentiment also had an impact. Future price breakthroughs depend on substantial improvement in demand [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: In July, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improved slightly, but with high import expectations and port inventory, its own driving force was limited. Short - term trends may be under pressure. For styrene, the supply - demand outlook was weak, port inventory increased, and the basis weakened. Short - term trends may also be under pressure [18]. - **Polyolefins**: In terms of valuation, marginal profits were gradually recovering, but supply and demand for PP and PE both contracted, and inventories accumulated while demand remained weak. In the dynamic dimension, PP maintenance reached its peak, PE maintenance first increased and then decreased, and imports were still scarce. There was a seasonal improvement in demand at the end of July. Strategically, the market sentiment was warm, with PP expected to fluctuate weakly and PE to be bought within a range [22]. - **Crude Oil**: Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly due to the structural contradiction between crude oil destocking and macro - level suppression of long - term demand. Although EIA data showed a large reduction in crude oil inventory, the inventory structure was differentiated. The market was also concerned about tariff frictions, which restricted the upward space of oil prices. Short - term trends were likely to maintain a weak oscillation [25]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, although supply was generally stable, demand support was limited, and short - term trends may be under pressure. PTA supply - demand was expected to be weak, and short - term trends may also face pressure. MEG supply - demand was expected to improve in the short term, with support at the bottom. Short - fiber supply and demand were both weak, and the absolute price fluctuated with raw materials. Bottle - chip supply - demand showed some improvement, but absolute prices still followed raw materials [29]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: For caustic soda, the supply - demand contradiction was limited, but high profits led to high production. Downstream non - aluminum demand was in a relative off - season, but there was phased restocking. Short - term macro - level disturbances increased trading risks, and it was recommended to take profits on previous long positions. For PVC, the market was in a season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with no significant improvement in fundamentals. Short - term trading was mainly affected by macro - level sentiment, and it was recommended to wait and see [47]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices decreased, while the MA91 spread and some regional spreads changed. Spot prices in different regions also showed various fluctuations [1]. - **Inventory**: Middle - sized methanol enterprises' inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all decreased [1]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates had different changes [1]. Urea - **Futures**: Futures closing prices of different contracts decreased, and contract spreads changed [9][10]. - **Positions**: Long and short positions of the top 20 decreased, and the long - short ratio slightly increased [11]. - **Raw Materials and Spot**: Some upstream raw material prices were stable, while spot prices in different regions showed small fluctuations [12]. - **Downstream Products**: Prices of some downstream products were stable, and the fertilizer market also had price changes [14][15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, plant operating rates, and inventory levels had different changes [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices, and prices of related products such as CFR Japan naphtha and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene changed. Spreads between products also changed [18]. - **Styrene - Related**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased, and related spreads and cash flows changed [18]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased, and industry operating rates had different trends [18]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot**: Futures closing prices of different contracts decreased, and spot prices in different regions also declined. Spreads and basis also changed [22]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, and inventory levels in different sectors increased [22]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices and related spreads changed [25]. - **Refined Oil**: Refined oil prices, spreads, and cracking spreads had different fluctuations [25]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream raw material prices such as Brent crude oil and PX changed, and downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also showed various trends [29]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: MEG port inventory and arrival expectations, and industry operating rates in different segments had different changes [29]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures**: Spot and futures prices of PVC and caustic soda changed, and spreads and basis also had different trends [47]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side operating rates and profit levels, and demand - side downstream operating rates and inventory levels had different changes [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. The market is optimistic about the potential for supply - side clearance, which has boosted copper prices. However, demand has weakened with the price rebound, and there is a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. Domestic macro - policies and low inventories support copper prices. The main reference price range is 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term prices are expected to be strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but there are risks such as policy changes in Guinea and potential squeezes. Mid - term, it is advisable to short at high prices. For aluminum, short - term prices are under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price reference range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction inflection points and demand changes [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [9]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [11]. Tin - Supply - side restoration is expected as tin mines in Myanmar resume production. However, due to positive market sentiment, short positions should be avoided for now. After the sentiment stabilizes, short at high prices [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy directions and steel - mill production reduction rhythms [17]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is characterized by emotional differentiation, and trading on price volatility can be considered. The main contract price range is 68,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton. Mid - term, a hedging strategy at high prices is recommended. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and upstream actions [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.04% to 79,790 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.34 million tons (-0.30%) to 1.1349 million tons, and imports increased by 47,400 tons (18.74%) to 300,500 tons. The opening rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 7.22 percentage points to 74.22% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.43% to 20,850 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production decreased by 14,000 tons (-0.19%) to 7.2581 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 120,000 tons (-3.22%) to 3.609 million tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,250 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 50 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 9,000 tons (1.49%) to 615,000 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6,000 tons (-2.30%) to 255,000 tons [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.18% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 35,700 tons (6.50%) to 585,100 tons, and imports increased by 9,300 tons (34.97%) to 36,100 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.40% to 124,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, China's refined nickel production decreased by 3,550 tons (-10.04%) to 31,800 tons, and imports increased by 10,325 tons (116.90%) to 19,157 tons [11]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.98% to 268,900 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 1,538 tons (-11.44%) to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 1,030 tons (-6.94%) to 13,810 tons [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 68,300 tons (-3.83%) to 1.7133 million tons, and imports decreased by 16,000 tons (-12.48%) to 109,500 tons [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.95% to 70,450 yuan/ton. The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 6,010 tons (8.34%) to 78,090 tons, and demand decreased by 145 tons (-0.15%) to 93,815 tons [20].

Report 1: Glass and Soda Ash Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the market sentiment declined, and soda ash prices followed suit. Coal production cuts boosted market bullish sentiment, and the market has expectations for the elimination of backward production capacity. The overall macro - market sentiment is warm, and the stock market and commodities are rebounding. However, soda ash still has an obvious oversupply situation, and glass also faces over - capacity issues. Both markets need to track the implementation of relevant policies [1]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - **Glass**:华北报价 rose 0.83% to 1210 yuan/ton,华东报价 rose 0.80% to 1260 yuan/ton,华中报价 rose 2.63% to 1170 yuan/ton, and华南报价 remained unchanged at 1290 yuan/ton. Glass 2505 fell 2.21% to 1372 yuan/ton, and glass 2509 fell 3.04% to 1211 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 20.20% [1]. - **Soda Ash**:华东报价 rose 4.07% to 1280 yuan/ton,华中报价 rose 4.17% to 1250 yuan/ton. Soda ash 2505 fell 1.63% to 1452 yuan/ton, and soda ash 2509 fell 2.51% to 1338 yuan/ton. The 05 basis increased by 19.05% [1]. Supply - Soda ash production rate increased by 3.42% to 84.10%, and weekly output increased by 3.41% to 73.32 million tons. Float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.38% to 15.78 million tons, and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 2.70% to 91840 tons [1]. Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 3.22% to 6493.90 million cubic meters. Soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.26% to 190.56 million tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 3.61% to 24.66 million tons. Glass factory soda ash inventory days increased by 11.34% to 23.4 days [1]. Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 2.99% to - 18.73%, construction area decreased by 7.56% to - 33.33%, completion area increased by 15.67% to - 11.68%, and sales area increased by 12.13% to - 1.55% [1]. Report 2: Log Futures Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the sentiment of commodities has improved under the tone of anti - involution and stable growth, and log futures rose significantly last week. Currently, log demand is in the off - season, and weak demand drags down spot prices. In the context of strong expectations, attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, log supply, and inventory. Buying on dips can be considered [2]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - Log 2507 fell 1.79% to 818 yuan/cubic meter, log 2509 fell 1.90% to 823 yuan/cubic meter, log 2511 fell 2.05% to 826 yuan/cubic meter, and log 2601 fell to 835.5 yuan/cubic meter. The 9 - 11 spread increased by 2.5 to - 3 yuan/cubic meter, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.5 to - 12.5 yuan/cubic meter [2]. Supply and Demand - Last week, inventory started to accumulate, increasing by 7 million cubic meters. As of July 18, the total national coniferous log inventory was 329 million cubic meters. Demand increased by 0.36 million cubic meters last week. As of July 18, the average daily log delivery volume was 6.24 million cubic meters [2]. Report 3: Polysilicon Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - The current futures price has reached the previous expectation, and the arbitrage window is open. The upstream enterprises have hedging needs. With the approaching of the delivery month, investors need to pay attention to position control and risk management. Whether the price will rise further in the long - term depends on the smoothness of the price transmission mechanism and the implementation of capacity integration and production regulation [3]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - N - type granular silicon average price rose 2.33% to 44000 yuan/ton, N - type material basis decreased by 31.40% to - 4080 yuan/ton. PS2506 rose 1.99% to 50080 yuan/ton, and some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 3.48% to 11.10 GM, and weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.88% to 2.30 million tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 million tons, and silicon wafer production increased by 1.34% to 58.84 GW [3]. Inventory - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 9.78% to 24.90 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 11.64% to 16.02 GM [3]. Report 4: Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - Driven by the coking coal futures, industrial silicon futures opened higher but then followed the decline of polysilicon and coking coal futures. The industry profit has been repaired, and the arbitrage window is open. However, the fundamental demand is weakening, and attention should be paid to the inventory pressure. If the prices of polysilicon and coking coal futures fall, the price of industrial silicon will also decline, and buying put options can be considered [4]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon rose 3.09% to 10000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 955.56% to 475 yuan/ton. Some month - to - month spreads changed, with 2508 - 2509 rising 20.00% to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - National industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 30.08 million tons, and the national start - up rate decreased by 11.37% to 51.23%. Organic silicon DMC production increased by 13.75% to 20.93 million tons, and polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 million tons [4]. Inventory - Social inventory decreased by 0.73% to 54.70 million tons, and warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.11% to 25.05 million tons [4]. Report 5: Natural Rubber Futures and Spot Daily Report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to continuous rainfall in Southeast Asia and typhoons in Hainan, the supply is disrupted, and rubber prices are rebounding. The overall demand is stable, and the terminal demand increment is limited. Short - term observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation after the weather improves in the main producing areas [6]. Key Points from Different Sections Price and Spread - The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber remained unchanged at 14950 yuan/ton, and the full - latex basis increased by 50.00% to - 55 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5.66% to - 750 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In May, Thailand's production increased by 157.52% to 272.20 thousand tons, and China's production increased by 67.02% to 97.00 thousand tons. The start - up rate of semi - steel tires increased by 3.07% to 75.99%, and the start - up rate of all - steel tires increased by 0.54% to 65.10% [6]. Inventory - Bonded area inventory increased by 0.63% to 636383 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory warehouse futures inventory decreased by 0.82% to 36691 tons [6].

Report Summary Core Information - The report is a daily spread report for all varieties dated July 24, 2025, with data from Wind, Mysteel, and GF Futures Research Institute [2][3][4] Commodity Analysis Ferrous Metals - Silicon iron (SF509) has a futures price of 5878, a basis rate of 1.38%, and a historical quantile of 63.70% [1] - Silicon manganese (SM509) has a futures price of 6020, a basis rate of 82, and a historical quantile of 40.50% [1] - HRB400 20mm rebar (RB2510) futures price is 3380, with a basis rate of 0.35% and a historical quantile of 22.40% [1] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510) futures price is 3438 [1] - Iron ore (I2509) futures price is 843, with a basis rate of - 12.15% and a historical quantile of 27.50% [1] - Coke (J2509) futures price is 1500, with a basis rate of 3.47% [1] - Coking coal (JM2509) futures price is 1053, with a basis rate of - 83 and a historical quantile of 2.40% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2509) has a futures price of 79790, a basis rate of 0.25%, and a historical quantile of 64.16% [1] - Aluminum (AL2509) futures price is 20850, with a basis rate of 0.29% and a historical quantile of 65.83% [1] - Alumina (AO2509) futures price is 3239, with a basis rate of - 3.45% and a historical quantile of 14.75% [1] - Zinc (ZN2509) futures price is 22750, with a basis rate of - 0.98% and a historical quantile of 8.75% [1] - Tin (SN2508) futures price is 268900, with a basis rate of 0.13% and a historical quantile of 58.12% [1] - Nickel (NI5509) futures price is 123450, with a basis rate of 0.06% and a historical quantile of 59.16% [1] - Stainless steel (SS2509) futures price is 13070, with a basis rate of 1.32% and a historical quantile of 37.98% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2510) has a futures price of 792.9, a basis rate of - 0.59%, and a historical quantile of 6.20% [1] - Silver (AG2510) futures price is 9475.0, with a basis rate of - 0.18% and a historical quantile of 49.60% [1] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal (M2509) has a futures price of 2920, a basis rate of - 5.65%, and a historical quantile of 5.20% [1] - Soybean oil (Y2509) futures price is 8150, with a basis rate of 0.94% and a historical quantile of 6.80% [1] - Palm oil (P2509) futures price is 9040, with a basis rate of 0.51% and a historical quantile of 21.90% [1] - Rapeseed meal (RM509) futures price is 2758.0, with a basis rate of - 4.64% and a historical quantile of 13.10% [1] - Rapeseed oil (O1509) futures price is 9580, with a basis rate of 1.31% and a historical quantile of 48.00% [1] - Corn (C2509) futures price is 2360, with a basis rate of 1.68% and a historical quantile of 66.20% [1] - Corn starch (CS2509) futures price is 2675.0, with a basis rate of 2.43% and a historical quantile of 28.70% [1] - Live pigs (LH2509) futures price is 14590.0, with a basis rate of - 1.90% and a historical quantile of 36.40% [1] - Eggs (JD2509) futures price is 3220, with a basis rate of - 11.47% and a historical quantile of 8.60% [1] - Cotton (CF509) futures price is 15411, with a basis rate of 8.68% and a historical quantile of 84.80% [1] - Sugar (SR509) futures price is 6120, with a basis rate of 4.90% and a historical quantile of 55.00% [1] - Apples (AP510) futures price is 7956.0, with a basis rate of 51.30% [1] - Red dates (C1601) futures price is 8300, with a basis rate of - 2166% and a historical quantile of 7.90% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Para - xylene (PX509) has a futures price of 6860.0, a basis rate of 1.03%, and a historical quantile of 48.90% [1] - PTA (TA509) futures price is 4784.0, with a basis rate of - 0.08% and a historical quantile of 49.60% [1] - Ethylene glycol (EG2509) futures price is 4436.0, with a basis rate of 1.44% and a historical quantile of 83.10% [1] - Polyester fiber (PF509) futures price is 6432.0, with a basis rate of 2.61% and a historical quantile of 79.60% [1] - Styrene (EB2509) futures price is 7397.0, with a basis rate of 0.72% and a historical quantile of 37.70% [1] - Methanol (MA509) futures price is 2411.0, with a basis rate of 0.17% and a historical quantile of 42.00% [1] - Urea (UR509) futures price is 1773.0, with a basis rate of 3.21% and a historical quantile of 29.80% [1] - LLDPE (L2509) futures price is 7288.0, with a basis rate of - 0.11% and a historical quantile of 17.90% [1] - PP (PP2509) futures price is 7096.0, with a basis rate of 0.55% and a historical quantile of 32.50% [1] - PVC (V2509) futures price is 5070.0, with a basis rate of - 1.5% and a historical quantile of 59.80% [1] - Caustic soda (SH209) futures price is 2593.8, with a basis rate of - 1.90% and a historical quantile of 41.80% [1] - LPG (PG2509) futures price is 4548.0, with a basis rate of 14.65% and a historical quantile of 74.40% [1] - Asphalt (BU2509) futures price is 3845.0, with a basis rate of 6.98% and a historical quantile of 86.30% [1] - Butadiene rubber (BR2509) futures price is 11875.0, with a basis rate of 1.05% and a historical quantile of 41.50% [1] - Glass (FG509) futures price is 1168.0, with a basis rate of - 3.68% and a historical quantile of 51.05% [1] - Soda ash (SA509) futures price is 1338.0, with a basis rate of - 0.75% and a historical quantile of 26.68% [1] - Natural rubber (RU2509) futures price is 14950.0, with a basis rate of - 0.37% and a historical quantile of 91.66% [1] Financial Futures - IF2509.CFE has a futures price of 4119.8, a basis rate of - 0.26%, and a historical quantile of 35.20% [1] - IH2509.CFE futures price is 2802.8, with a basis rate of 0.06% and a historical quantile of 67.10% [1] - IC2509.CFE futures price is 6196.8, with a basis rate of - 1.25% and a historical quantile of 6.20% [1] - IM2509.CFE futures price is 6607.2, with a basis rate of - 1.6% and a historical quantile of 11.80% [1] - 2 - year bond (TS2509) futures price is 102.38, with a basis rate of - 0.01% and a historical quantile of 23.40% [1] - 5 - year bond (TF2509) futures price is 100.75, with a basis rate of 0.00% and a historical quantile of 27.30% [1] - 10 - year bond (T2509) futures price is 100.89, with a basis rate of 0.02% and a historical quantile of 17.80% [1] - 30 - year bond (TL2509) futures price is 119.35, with a basis rate of 0.22% and a historical quantile of 34.60% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily tracking and analysis of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, presenting the changes in total positions, main contract positions, and the significant changes in the top 20 seats [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 23, the total position of the IF variety increased by 1,510 lots, while the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 1,146 lots [5]. - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Among the top twenty long - position seats on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 46,618 lots. Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the most long - position increases, adding 724 lots, and CITIC Futures had the most long - position decreases, reducing 1,806 lots [6]. - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: Among the top twenty short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 50,721 lots. GF Futures had the most short - position increases, adding 856 lots, and CITIC Futures had the most short - position decreases, reducing 862 lots [8]. IH - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 23, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 1,022 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 decreased by 1,357 lots [11]. - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Among the top twenty long - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 12,196 lots. GF Futures had the most long - position increases, adding 235 lots, and Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decreases, reducing 1,125 lots [12]. - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: Among the top twenty short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 21,225 lots. China Merchants Futures had the most short - position increases, adding 358 lots, and Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position decreases, reducing 941 lots [13]. IC - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 23, the total position of the IC variety increased by 2,910 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 399 lots [17]. - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Among the top twenty long - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 34,605 lots. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increases, adding 970 lots, and Guotai Junan Futures had the most long - position decreases, reducing 996 lots [18]. - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: Among the top twenty short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 41,595 lots. CITIC Futures had the most short - position increases, adding 858 lots, and China Merchants Futures had the most short - position decreases, reducing 696 lots [19]. IM - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On July 23, the total position of the IM variety increased by 9,947 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 3,423 lots [23]. - **Top Twenty Long - Position Seats**: Among the top twenty long - position seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 45,127 lots. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increases, adding 2,705 lots, and Guoxin Futures had the most long - position decreases, reducing 502 lots [23]. - **Top Twenty Short - Position Seats**: Among the top twenty short - position seats, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 68,013 lots. CITIC Futures had the most short - position increases, adding 4,125 lots, and China Merchants Futures had the most short - position decreases, reducing 279 lots [25].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific trading suggestions for various futures varieties: - **Long Positions**: Steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, alumina, urea, PX, PTA, bottle chips, ethanol, LLDPE, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon [2] - **Short Positions**: IM futures long positions (to be gradually liquidated), 08 contract or 10 - contract of container shipping index (EC2510) for short - selling, sugar, palm oil (observation for short - selling opportunities), cotton (medium - term short - selling), eggs (long - term short - selling) [2] - **Hold and Observe**: Treasury bonds (short - term), gold and silver (long positions held), stainless steel, crude oil, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber (not recommended to chase up), PP, methanol, corn, apples, dates, peanuts, glass, soda ash, lithium carbonate [2] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: The main line of pro - cyclical continues to ferment, A - shares rise with heavy volume, and there is an obvious phenomenon of high - low rotation between sectors [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The decline in funding rates supports short - term bonds. Long - term bonds are significantly suppressed by the recovery of risk appetite in the short term. The overall futures bond trading range moves down. Pay attention to whether incremental policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2] - **Precious Metals**: Under the weakening of the US dollar and multiple news disturbances, the prices of gold and silver remain strong. Gold is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend and hit a previous high, and silver has further upward space above $38 [2] - **Black Metals**: The sentiment in the black metal market improves, pig iron production rebounds, and steel mills' restocking provides support. The expectation of production - restriction documents increases, coal mine复产 lags, and the spot market is strong [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The implementation of anti - involution policies promotes the copper price to be volatile and strong. The expectation of capacity elimination and the intensification of squeeze - out risks drive the alumina price to a new high [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the short - term oil price is mainly weak. The macro - policy boosts the market's strong expectation trading sentiment, and most chemical products show short - term support or upward trends [2] - **Agricultural Products**: The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the capital sentiment supports domestic soybean meal prices. The prices of some agricultural products such as palm oil and sugar face adjustment or short - selling opportunities [2] - **Special Commodities**: Affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side factors, the prices of glass, soda ash, and other special commodities fluctuate greatly, and risk avoidance should be noted [2] 3. Summaries by Related Categories **Equity Index Futures** - The main line of pro - cyclical continues to ferment, A - shares rise with heavy volume. It is recommended to gradually liquidate IM futures long positions, replace them with a small number of MO put option short positions in the 08 contract with a strike price of 6000, and reduce the position, with a mild bullish view [2] **Treasury Bond Futures** - The decline in funding rates supports short - term bonds. Long - term bonds are significantly suppressed by the recovery of risk appetite in the short term. The overall futures bond trading range moves down. In the single - side strategy, short - term observation is recommended. Pay attention to whether incremental policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July. Considering the possible loosening of the funding side, the curve strategy can continue to bet on steepening [2] **Precious Metals Futures** - The weakening of the US dollar and multiple news disturbances keep the prices of gold and silver strong. Gold is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend and hit a previous high. Silver has further upward space above $38, and long positions can be held [2] **Container Shipping Index Futures** - The main contract of the container shipping index (EC2510) falls. It is expected that the near - month contract will be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to short - sell the 08 contract or short - sell the 10 - contract at high prices [2] **Black Metal Futures** - The sentiment in the black metal market improves, pig iron production rebounds, and steel mills' restocking provides support. The expectation of production - restriction documents increases, coal mine复产 lags, the spot market is strong, and the transaction recovers. Mainstream coking plants initiate the second round of price increases, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to rebound [2] **Non - ferrous Metal Futures** - The implementation of anti - involution policies promotes the copper price to be volatile and strong. The expectation of capacity elimination and the intensification of squeeze - out risks drive the alumina price to a new high. The aluminum price rebounds slightly, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The demand expectation for zinc is still weak [2] **Energy and Chemical Futures** - **Crude Oil**: The tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the short - term oil price is mainly weak, with WTI in the range of [63, 64], Brent in the range of [66, 67], and SC in the range of [498, 505] [2] - **Chemicals**: The macro - policy boosts the market's strong expectation trading sentiment. Most chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. show short - term support or upward trends, but there are also differences in supply - demand fundamentals and price trends among different products [2] **Agricultural Product Futures** - The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the capital sentiment supports domestic soybean meal prices. The prices of some agricultural products such as palm oil and sugar face adjustment or short - selling opportunities. The old - crop cotton inventory is relatively tight, and the downstream market is weak, showing short - term strength and medium - term short - selling opportunities [2] **Special Commodity Futures** - Affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side factors, the prices of glass, soda ash, etc. fluctuate greatly. It is necessary to pay attention to risk avoidance [2]