1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present data on various types of futures, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, as well as related spot prices, spreads, and other indicators. They show the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical quantiles, and other information to help investors understand the market conditions of different futures products [1][2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Spread Data**: The report provides detailed price spread data for IF, IH, IC, and IM stock index futures, including spot - futures spreads and inter - period spreads. For example, the IF spot - futures spread is - 7.84, with a change of 2.73 from the previous day, and the historical 1 - year quantile is 40.90% [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: Information on IRR, basis, and price spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL Treasury bond futures is given. For instance, the TS basis is 1.5781, with a change of 0.0115 from the previous day, and the historical quantile is 23.00% [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Price and Spread**: It shows the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metal futures, spot prices, and basis. For example, the AU2510 contract closed at 778.74 yuan/gram on July 24, down 1.79% from the previous day, and the gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 3.64 [4]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The report includes spot quotes for Shanghai - Europe container shipping, container shipping index data, futures prices, and basis. For example, the MAERSK spot price for Shanghai - Europe on July 25 is 3104 dollars/FEU, up 0.16% from the previous day, and the EC2602 futures contract price on July 24 is 1562.3, up 5.75% from the previous day [6]. Data and Information Calendar - **Domestic and Overseas Data**: It lists domestic and overseas economic data and events to be released, such as the US June durable goods orders monthly rate, and domestic 2000 billion yuan 1 - year MLF due on a certain day [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - The valuation shows that the marginal profit is gradually recovering, and the supply and demand of PP and PE are simultaneously contracting, with inventory accumulation. The demand side continues to be in a weak state. There is a risk of capacity withdrawal for devices with a production history of over 20 years. Strategy-wise, there is an opportunity for PP to fluctuate on the short - side, and PE can be bought within a certain range [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to the repair of market demand expectations after the alleviation of macro - tense emotions. However, the OPEC+ production increase plan and Sino - US trade uncertainties pose upward resistance. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band strategy [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure benzene's previous maintenance devices are gradually restarting, and its downstream price transmission is not smooth. The short - term trend of pure benzene fluctuates with the overall market sentiment. Styrene's supply - demand expectation is weak, but it is supported in the short - term by the domestic anti - involution sentiment, with limited upside [44]. Methanol Industry - Inland methanol prices fluctuate slightly. The supply side has high maintenance losses in July but there is a restart expectation. The demand side is restricted by the traditional off - season. The port side is expected to accumulate inventory from July to August. In the short - term, the cost is lifted by coal, and the 09 contract's fluctuation range moves up. It is advisable to buy the 01 contract at low prices [47]. Chlor - alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the short - term macro - disturbance is intense, and it is recommended to close previous long positions and wait and see. For PVC, the short - term trading logic is mainly dominated by macro - emotions, and it is recommended to wait and see [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. PTA may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Ethylene glycol is expected to run strongly in the short - term. Short - fiber has no obvious short - term driver. Bottle - chip supply - demand has an improvement expectation [71]. Urea Industry - The urea futures market is in a range - bound pattern. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak, resulting in a supply - exceeding - demand situation. The future price breakthrough depends on the substantial warming of the demand side [78]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of L and PP increased on July 24 compared to July 23. For example, L2601's closing price rose from 7346 to 7436, with a 1.23% increase [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 4.99% to 50.3 tons, while PP enterprise inventory increased by 2.62% to 58.1 tons [2]. - **开工率**: PE device's starting rate increased by 0.97% to 79.0%, and PP device's starting rate decreased by 0.4% to 77.0% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On July 25, Brent, WTI, and SC prices all increased compared to July 24. For example, Brent rose from 68.51 to 69.18 dollars per barrel, with a 0.98% increase [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The rise in oil prices is due to the alleviation of macro - tense emotions and the improvement of demand expectations, but there are still supply - side uncertainties [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products showed different trends. For example, the spot price of pure benzene decreased by 0.2% to 5980 yuan per ton [44]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory increased by 4.3% to 17.10 tons, and styrene's Jiangsu port inventory increased by 8.8% to 15.07 tons [44]. - **开工率**: The Asian pure benzene starting rate increased by 0.7% to 77.4%, and the domestic pure benzene starting rate increased by 0.3% to 78.1% [44]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, methanol futures and spot prices increased compared to July 21. For example, MA2601's closing price rose from 2482 to 2550, with a 2.74% increase [47]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.55% to 33.983 tons, and methanol port inventory decreased by 8.15% to 72.6 tons [47]. - **开工率**: The upstream domestic enterprise starting rate decreased by 1.01% to 70.37, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device starting rate increased by 0.56% to 75.96 [47]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of caustic soda and PVC - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 2593.8 yuan per ton [50]. - **开工率**: The caustic soda industry starting rate increased by 1.3% to 86.3, and the PVC total starting rate decreased by 0.1% to 75.0 [50]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory increased by 13.8% to 21.3 tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 3.7% to 36.8 tons [52]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of upstream and downstream products in the polyester industry chain changed. For example, the price of Brent crude oil (September) rose from 68.51 to 69.18 dollars per barrel, with a 1.0% increase [71]. - **开工率**: The Asian PX starting rate remained unchanged at 73.6%, and the PTA starting rate remained unchanged at 79.7% [71]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: On July 24, the prices of urea futures contracts increased compared to July 23. For example, the 01 contract's closing price rose from 1779 to 1796, with a 0.96% increase [75]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 4.10% to 85.88 tons, and the domestic urea port inventory increased by 0.37% to 54.30 tons [78]. - **开工率**: The urea production factory starting rate increased by 1.26% to 83.21 [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. Market sentiment is positive, but there is a risk of short - term sentiment reversal. The demand side has weakened, but domestic macro policies and low inventory support the price. The main reference range is 78,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term price may be strong above 3100 yuan, but there are risks such as policy changes and squeeze - out risks. Mid - term, it is recommended to short at high prices. For aluminum, short - term prices are under pressure at high levels, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 21,000. Focus on de - stocking inflection points and demand changes [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main reference range of 19,600 - 20,400. Pay attention to upstream scrap aluminum supply and import marginal changes [5]. Zinc - Short - term zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,500. Long - term supply is expected to be loose, and follow - up attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [9]. Nickel - Short - term nickel prices are expected to adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 120,000 - 128,000. Focus on macro - expectation changes [11]. Tin - Short - term tin prices are strong. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to market sentiment changes and Myanmar's resumption of production progress [14]. Stainless Steel - Short - term stainless steel prices will fluctuate, with the main reference range of 12,600 - 13,200. Pay attention to policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Short - term lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is advisable to increase volatility and be cautious in unilateral trading. Focus on macro - expectation changes and supply adjustments [20]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.01% to 79,795 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 9.15% to 1,304 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% to 113.49 million tons, and imports increased by 18.74% to 30.05 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.62% to 20,850 yuan/ton. The alumina price in Shandong increased by 0.16% to 3,220 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production decreased by 0.19% to 725.81 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 360.90 million tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.25% to 20,200 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.49% to 61.50 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.30% to 25.50 million tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.26% to 22,880 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 58.51 million tons, and imports increased by 34.97% to 3.61 million tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.52% to 124,700 yuan/ton. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel increased by 0.88% to 121,953 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, and imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons [11]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.30% to 272,400 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44% to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94% to 13,810 tons [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,900 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons, and imports decreased by 12.48% to 10.95 million tons [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.14% to 70,550 yuan/ton. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 152.34% to 1,230 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% to 78,090 tons, and demand decreased by 0.15% to 93,815 tons [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of anti - involution narratives and expectations of incremental policies, the overall stock and commodity markets remain strong, while long - term bonds are under pressure. The market is affected by factors such as trade negotiations, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in put options on MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, and reduce positions, maintaining a moderately bullish stance. On the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies [2]. Treasury Bonds - The risk assets suppress long - term bonds. With the tightening of the capital market, the short - selling sentiment in the bond futures market has increased, and the redemption pressure on bond funds may start to rise, which still suppresses the bond market. In terms of the curve strategy, it is possible to continue to bet on the steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and its commodity attributes, and it oscillates above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential due to the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflows, and long positions can be held. Gold continues to correct as the European Central Bank pauses rate cuts for the first time in a year and the risk - aversion sentiment eases [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract rebounds slightly. With the increasing expectation of anti - involution, the price continues to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - The iron ore has insufficient upward momentum as the molten iron output slightly decreases and the port inventory slightly increases. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The steel price continues to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be held [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of production - restriction documents is rising, the resumption of coal mines is lagging, the spot market is strong, and the transaction is picking up. The third round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has started, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to take profits on long positions step by step at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term sentiment fades, and high copper prices suppress demand. - Aluminum: The market sentiment is bullish, and the aluminum price oscillates at a high level, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. - Other non - ferrous metals also have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on factors such as macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply - demand [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The macro - sentiment eases, and the demand expectation recovers, pushing up the oil price. - Other energy and chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions according to factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The document on air pollution prevention boosts market sentiment, and the spot transaction is strong. - Rubber: The macro - sentiment is positive, and supply disruptions due to rainy weather in overseas production areas and conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia drive up the rubber price. - Other special commodities also have corresponding market trends and trading suggestions [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures oscillate and rise to a new high, but attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to the increase in warehouse receipts. - Recycled lithium: The market sentiment is boosted, but the fundamental change is not significant. It is recommended to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [2].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 7 月 25 日星期五 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（ ...

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月24日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1210 | 1200 | 10 | 0.83% | | | 华东报价 | 1260 | 1250 | 10 | 0.80% | | | 华中报价 | 1170 | 1140 | 30 | 2.63% | | | 华南报价 | 1290 | 1290 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | | | 1403 | | | | | 玻璃2505 | 1372 | | -31 | -2.21% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1211 | 1249 | -38 | -3.04% | | | 05基着 | -162 | -203 | 41 | 20.20% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. However, it provides specific investment advice for different futures varieties: - **Buy Recommendations**: Steel (RB2510), Gold (AU2510), Silver (AG2510), Ethanol (EG2509), Methanol (MA2509, M2509), Palm Oil (P2509/Y2509/O1509) [2] - **Sell Recommendations**: EC2510 (Container Shipping Index - European Line), Stainless Steel (SS2509 short - term strategy), PX2509 (short - at upper - range), PTA2509 (short - at upper - range), SR2509 (Sugar - rebound short), CF2509 (Cotton - mid - term short), JD2509 (Eggs - long - term short), CJ2601 (Jujube - long - term short) [2] - **Hold Recommendations**: IH2509 (put option short - position), IM2509 (long - position with reduced exposure), TF2509, TS2509, TI2509 (Treasury bonds - curve strategy), RB2510 (Steel), JM2509 (Coking Coal), J2509 (Coke), CU2509 (Copper), AL2509 (Aluminum), ZN2509 (Zinc), SM2508 (Antimony), NISE09 (Nickel), PR2509 (Bottle Chips), UR2509 (Urea - range operation), EG2509 (Ethanol - put option seller), RM509 (Rapeseed Meal - short - term long), C2509 (Corn - watch pressure), AP2510 (Apple - around 7900), PK2510 (Peanut - around 8100), FG2509 (Glass - watch risk), RU2509 (Rubber - watch) [2] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small number of put option short - positions in MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract. The large - finance sector is building up strength to rise, while the A - share market has risen and then fallen. The stock - bond seesaw effect is significant, and the short - term sentiment transmission still affects the bond market, with the future dependent on the Politburo meeting's incremental policies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The news of a trade agreement between the US and countries like Europe and Japan eases the risk - aversion sentiment, causing gold to fall from its high. Gold maintains a relatively strong oscillation above the 60 - day moving average due to the weakening credit and the driving of the commodity attribute. Silver has further room to rise under the support of the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflow, and long positions can be held [2]. - **Shipping and Black Metals**: The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to be weak in the near - month, and it is advisable to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices. In the black metals sector, the sentiment has improved, with increased iron - water production and steel mills' restocking. However, there are different strategies for different products such as taking profits on long positions in iron ore, coking coal, and coke at high prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Energy Chemicals**: Copper prices are oscillating strongly due to anti - involution policies. Alumina prices have fallen from the high due to concerns about the resumption of factory capacity in Shanxi. In the energy chemicals sector, different products face different market conditions, such as short - term weakness in oil prices, and different trading strategies are proposed for each product [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different market trends. For example, palm oil is strong, sugar has a loose overseas supply and is recommended to be shorted on rebounds, and cotton is strong in the short - term but shorted at high prices in the medium - term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: There is high - low rotation among sectors, large - finance is building up strength, and the A - share market has risen and then fallen. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Gradually take profits on IM long positions, switch to MO put option short - positions, and be mainly moderately bullish. In the short - term, adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and focus on the Politburo meeting [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Situation**: The short - term sentiment transmission affects the bond market, and it is difficult to say that it has stabilized [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Focus on the Politburo meeting's incremental policies and actual demand changes. Continue to play the steepening strategy for the yield curve [2]. Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: Gold has fallen from the high due to eased risk - aversion, while silver has the potential to rise further [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold long positions in silver, and gold maintains a relatively strong oscillation above the 60 - day moving average [2]. Shipping and Black Metals - **Market Situation**: The container shipping index (European Line) is falling, and the black metals sector has improved sentiment with increased iron - water production and restocking [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short the container shipping index contracts; take profits on long positions in iron ore, coking coal, and coke at high prices, and hold long positions in steel [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Market Situation**: Copper prices are oscillating strongly, alumina prices have fallen from the high, and other non - ferrous metals have different price trends [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Different trading ranges and strategies are proposed for each non - ferrous metal product [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Market Situation**: Oil prices are weak in the short - term, and different energy chemicals products face different supply - demand and market sentiment situations [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Different trading strategies such as range trading, shorting at high prices, and option trading are proposed for each product [2]. Agricultural Products - **Market Situation**: Different agricultural products have different supply - demand and price trends, such as strong palm oil and loose sugar supply [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Different trading strategies are proposed for each agricultural product, such as shorting on rebounds for sugar and shorting at high prices in the medium - term for cotton [2]. Special Commodities - **Market Situation**: Glass and rubber are affected by macro and sentiment factors, with large price fluctuations [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Observe and pay attention to risk avoidance for glass, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy for rubber [2]. New Energy - Related Commodities - **Market Situation**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have different price trends and market situations [3]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for all of them and pay attention to price risks [3].

数据来源：Wind、Mystee、富宝资讯、广发期货发展研究中心。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免责声明 | 钢材产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025年7月24日 | | | 問數波 | Z0010559 | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 现值 | 品种 | | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 3380 | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | | 3370 | 10 | ટેર | | | 3340 | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | | 3330 | 10 | 16 | | | 3490 | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3480 | | -10 | 156 | | | 3350 | 螺纹钢05合约 | | 3386 | -36 | 30 | | | 3274 | 螺纹钢10合约 | | 3307 | -33 | 106 | | | 3324 | 螺纹钢01合约 | | 3367 | -43 | 56 | | | 3450 | 热卷现货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report 2.1 Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Due to concerns about production growth and export slowdown, the Malaysian crude palm oil futures may enter a shock - adjustment phase. Monitor the resistance at 4,350 ringgit. The domestic palm oil futures are expected to oscillate horizontally in the range of 9,000 - 9,100 yuan. Be wary of the risk of a pull - back if the Malaysian palm oil encounters resistance at high levels [1]. - Soybean oil: Uncertainties in US trade relations and expectations of a large US soybean harvest have a negative impact on CBOT soybeans and, in turn, CBOT soybean oil. However, the expected good performance of BMD palm oil due to pre - festival stocking may boost CBOT soybean oil. In the long - term, CBOT soybean oil may rise, while it is currently in a stagnant adjustment phase. In the domestic market, the spot market has slow sales, and the basis quotes are under pressure in the short - term but may be boosted in August [1]. 2.2 Sugar - Brazil's sugar production decline in the second half of June exceeded expectations. If the sugar - to - ethanol ratio is adjusted downward, Brazil's sugar production may not meet expectations. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but a bearish view is maintained overall considering the increasing production pattern. In the domestic market, low inventory supports Guangxi's spot prices, while the entry of processed sugar and expected increase in imports lead to a marginally looser supply - demand situation, suggesting a bearish view after rebounds [4]. 2.3 Corn - In the short - term, the market sentiment has recovered. Supply shortages support the futures price rebound, but the upside is limited. The policy auctions should be closely monitored. In the medium - term, tight supply, low imports, and increasing breeding consumption will support corn prices [7]. 2.4 Cotton - In the short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate at high levels. Although the downstream industry is still weak, the rising cotton prices have driven up yarn prices. The supply of old cotton after the price increase has put some pressure on the market, but the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before the new cotton is on the market. In the long - term, cotton prices may face pressure after the new cotton is listed [9]. 2.5 Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather has reduced the egg production rate and egg weight, resulting in a shortage of large - sized eggs. The peak - season demand for eggs is starting, and the trading volume is increasing. Egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize [11]. 2.6 Meal - US soybeans are in a bottom - oscillating phase, supported by expected dry weather in August and improved trade expectations. In the domestic market, soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. The supply will remain high in the short - term, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, limiting the basis decline. The market sentiment is suppressed by the government's promotion of soybean meal substitution. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. 2.7 Pigs - The current supply - demand situation of pigs is weak. The recent rise in the futures price is mainly driven by market sentiment. Although there may be a short - term boost in trading volume at the end and beginning of the month, the supply is expected to recover. Spot prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the upside of the near - term 09 contract is limited. The far - term contracts are more affected by policies, and it is not advisable to short blindly, but attention should be paid to the impact of hedging funds [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils - **Price Changes**: On July 23, the price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan to 8,310 yuan, and the futures price (Y2509) decreased by 2 yuan to 8,074 yuan. The basis decreased by 18 yuan to 236 yuan. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9,000 yuan, and the futures price (P2509) increased by 68 yuan to 8,994 yuan. The basis decreased by 68 yuan to 6 yuan. The price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan to 9,550 yuan, and the futures price (OI509) decreased by 21 yuan to 9,456 yuan. The basis decreased by 79 yuan to 94 yuan [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean oil decreased by 4 yuan to 44 yuan, the 09 - 01 spread of palm oil decreased by 4 yuan to 20 yuan, and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 13 yuan to 53 yuan. The spot soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 20 yuan to - 690 yuan, and the 2509 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 70 yuan to - 920 yuan. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 80 yuan to 1,240 yuan, and the 2509 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 19 yuan to 1,382 yuan [1]. 3.2 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 3 yuan to 5,656 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2509 increased by 11 yuan to 5,834 yuan/ton. The price of ICE raw sugar increased by 0.01 cents to 16.27 cents/pound. The 1 - 9 spread decreased by 8 yuan to - 178 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 6,050 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming increased by 40 yuan to 5,920 yuan/ton. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning decreased by 22 yuan to - 1,590 yuan/ton, and the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) and Nanning decreased by 28 yuan to - 385 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production reached 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 119.89 million tons compared to the previous period, with a growth rate of 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales reached 811.38 million tons, an increase of 152.10 million tons, with a growth rate of 23.07%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi reached 646.50 million tons, an increase of 28.36 million tons, with a growth rate of 4.59%. The monthly sugar sales in Guangxi were 51.00 million tons, a decrease of 1.72 million tons, with a decline rate of 3.26%. The cumulative national sugar sales rate was 72.59%, an increase of 6.42 percentage points, with a growth rate of 9.70% [3]. 3.3 Corn - **Corn**: The price of corn 2509 at Jinzhou Port decreased by 1 yuan to 2,321 yuan, and the basis increased by 1 yuan to 39 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2 yuan to 74 yuan. The price of bulk grain in Shekou decreased by 10 yuan to 2,430 yuan. The north - south trade profit decreased by 10 yuan to - 11 yuan. The CIF price remained unchanged at 1,994 yuan, and the import profit decreased by 10 yuan to 436 yuan [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2509 increased by 7 yuan to 2,675 yuan. The spot price in Changchun remained unchanged at 2,680 yuan, and the spot price in Weifang remained unchanged at 2,900 yuan. The basis decreased by 7 yuan to 5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan to 49 yuan [7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 45 yuan to 14,180 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2601 increased by 35 yuan to 14,065 yuan/ton. The price of ICE US cotton increased by 0.03 cents to 68.29 cents/pound. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 80 yuan to 115 yuan. The number of positions in the main contract decreased by 15,967 to 538,200, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 9,382 [9]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton (3128B) decreased by 5 yuan to 15,411 yuan, and the CC Index (3128B) decreased by 6 yuan to 15,543 yuan. The FC Index (M: 1%) increased by 35 yuan to 13,728 yuan/ton [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 28.74 million tons to 254.24 million tons, and industrial inventory decreased by 2.09 million tons to 88.21 million tons. The import volume decreased by 1 million tons to 3 million tons. The inventory in the bonded area decreased by 0.9 million tons to 32.7 million tons. The inventory days of yarn increased by 1.13 days to 28.36 days, and the inventory days of grey cloth increased by 0.63 days to 37.24 days [9]. 3.5 Eggs - **Price Changes**: The price of the egg 09 contract increased by 16 yuan to 3,637 yuan/500KG, and the price of the egg 08 contract increased by 39 yuan to 3,613 yuan/500KG. The price in the egg - producing area increased by 0.1 yuan to 3.33 yuan/jin. The basis increased by 82 yuan to - 305 yuan/500KG, and the 9 - 8 spread decreased by 23 yuan to 24 yuan [11]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks decreased by 0.02 yuan to 3.88 yuan/feather, and the price of culled hens increased by 0.2 yuan to 4.80 yuan/jin. The egg - to - feed ratio increased by 0.14 to 2.25, and the breeding profit increased by 8.52 yuan to - 32.98 yuan/feather [11]. 3.6 Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2,920 yuan, and the futures price (M2509) increased by 9 yuan to 3,095 yuan. The basis decreased by 9 yuan to - 175 yuan. The spot basis quote in Jiangsu was m2509 - 190. The import crushing profit for Brazilian September shipments increased by 4 yuan to 110 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 170 to 41,446 [14]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan to 2,660 yuan, and the futures price (RM2509) increased by 22 yuan to 2,758 yuan. The basis decreased by 12 yuan to - 98 yuan. The spot basis quote in Guangdong was rm09 - 130. The import crushing profit for Canadian November shipments increased by 7 yuan to 303 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 0 [14]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin remained unchanged at 3,960 yuan, and the futures price of the main soybean contract decreased by 15 yuan to 4,217 yuan. The basis increased by 15 yuan to - 257 yuan. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,660 yuan, and the futures price of the main soybean contract (No. 2) increased by 1 yuan to 3,724 yuan. The basis decreased by 1 yuan to - 64 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 162 to 14,522 [14]. - **Spreads**: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal decreased by 3 yuan to - 21 yuan, and the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal increased by 15 yuan to 314 yuan. The oil - to - meal ratio of the spot decreased by 0.007 to 2.85, and the oil - to - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 0.008 to 2.61. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 10 yuan to 260 yuan, and the 2509 spread decreased by 13 yuan to 337 yuan [14]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the main pig contract decreased by 310 yuan to - 290 yuan. The price of the 2511 contract increased by 340 yuan to 14,300 yuan, and the price of the 2509 contract increased by 210 yuan to 14,590 yuan. The 9 - 11 spread decreased by 130 yuan to 290 yuan. The number of positions in the main contract increased by 7,482 to 67,303, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 284 [16]. - **Spot Market**: The price of pigs in Henan decreased by 100 yuan to 14,300 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan to 14,450 yuan/ton. The price in Sichuan decreased by 50 yuan to 13,650 yuan/ton, and the price in Liaoning decreased by 150 yuan to 14,050 yuan/ton. The price in Guangdong decreased by 200 yuan to 15,740 yuan/ton, and the price in Hunan decreased by 100 yuan to 14,110 yuan/ton. The price in Hebei decreased by 150 yuan to 14,350 yuan/ton [16]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 37 to 133,568, the weekly price of white - striped pigs decreased by 0.2 yuan to 20.63 yuan, the weekly price of piglets remained unchanged at 26.00 yuan/kg, and the weekly price of sows remained unchanged at 32.52 yuan/kg. The weekly average slaughter weight decreased by 0.2 kg to 128.83 kg. The weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 43 yuan to 91 yuan/head, and the weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding decreased by 50.3 yuan to - 19 yuan/head. The monthly number of reproductive sows increased by 40,000 to 4,042 million [16].

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Methanol**: This week, both inland and port areas saw inventory reduction. The slowdown in port unloading and the recovery of port MTO profits led to increased port purchases. Inland prices fluctuated slightly, with high maintenance losses in July but expected future production resumptions. Demand was restricted by the traditional off - season, and new capacity launches affected the market. At the port, the basis strengthened, and with the return of Iranian device production, imports are expected to be 1.25 million tons in July and slightly decline in August. After the recovery of MTO profits, the possibility of maintenance is uncertain [1]. - **Urea**: After the callback, the futures price stabilized. The main logic is the game between the expected supply contraction and the weak actual demand. Large - scale and long - term maintenance is a potential positive factor, and a daily production below 190,000 tons strengthens the supply - side expectations. During the off - season, agricultural demand is low, and industrial demand cannot expand significantly. The contradiction lies in the "strong expectation vs. weak reality". The futures price opened high and closed low, reflecting the lack of confidence in demand from long - position holders. Policy - related sentiment disturbances may cause the price to return to the loose supply - demand fundamentals. The supply reduction before the autumn stock - up may lead to a volatile pattern, and price breakthroughs depend on demand improvement [5]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: In July, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improved overall. Although the production cuts of Shenghong and Hengli devices had limited impact on the loss of pure benzene, the price transmission in downstream industries was poor, especially in the CPL downstream due to high inventory and expected production cuts. With high import expectations and high port inventory, pure benzene's self - driving force is limited. As the commodity market sentiment cools, the short - term trend of pure benzene may be under pressure. For styrene, the short - term operating rate is high, but downstream EPS/PS factories are reducing production due to compressed profits and are cautious in raw material procurement. The supply - demand outlook is weak, port inventory is increasing, and the basis is weakening. As the market sentiment cools, the short - term trend of styrene may also be under pressure [8]. - **LLDPE and PP**: In terms of valuation, the marginal profit is gradually recovering, and the supply and demand of PP and PE are both contracting, with inventory accumulation and weak demand. Dynamically, PP maintenance has reached its peak, while PE maintenance first increased and then decreased. Import offers are still scarce, and some Middle - East devices stopped due to power issues. Demand is expected to pick up seasonally at the end of July. Currently, the market sentiment is positive. For PP, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and short - position holders should wait and see. For PE, it is recommended to buy within a certain range [11]. - **Crude Oil**: Overnight, the oil price oscillated weakly. The main logic is the structural contradiction between crude oil inventory reduction and the macro - economic suppression of long - term demand. EIA data shows a large reduction in crude oil inventory, which is higher than expected. However, while gasoline inventory decreased, distillate oil inventory increased significantly, and the refinery operating rate increased. The crack spread of US refined oil increased slightly, promoting the rise of refinery operating rates. The inventory structure shows a tightening of crude oil supply, with a decline in production and imports, which supports the oil price. However, the market is concerned about tariff frictions. The approaching US - EU tariff negotiations and the implementation risks of China - US tariff policies may suppress industrial oil demand. In the short term, the unexpected reduction in crude oil inventory cannot reverse the oscillating pattern, and the increase in regional inventory and long - term concerns limit the upside space of the oil price. It is recommended to use short - term band - trading strategies, and the option side can capture opportunities from increased volatility [13]. - **PTA, MEG, and Related Products**: For PX, except for the planned maintenance of some devices, the overall supply is stable. Polyester sales provide limited support, and the weakening of oil price support makes PX's self - driving force limited in the short term. As the market sentiment cools, the short - term trend of PX may be under pressure. For PTA, the current load is around 80%, and there are expectations of new device launches. However, the demand outlook is weak, so PTA's driving force is weak. For MEG, multiple coal - based ethylene glycol devices had unexpected shutdowns in mid - July, resulting in lower - than - expected supply increases. With a decrease in import expectations and low port inventory in the short term, the supply - demand relationship is tight. For short - fiber, although factories plan to cut production in July, due to weak terminal demand, high - temperature weather, and high costs, the supply - demand is weak. For bottle - grade polyester chips, July is the peak season for soft - drink consumption, and there are expectations of inventory improvement. However, considering the high supply level, attention should be paid to whether device production cuts increase and downstream follow - up [18]. - **Chlor - Alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC)**: For caustic soda, the futures price declined and had a callback. Previously, it was boosted by policies, and the market expected future industry capacity reduction. Spot trading was average, and the price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong decreased. Low - concentration caustic soda is supported by alumina demand, and most enterprises have low inventory, but non - alumina downstream users resist high prices. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, but high profits stimulate high production. Downstream non - alumina industries are in the off - season, but periodic restocking increases delivery volume. Currently, upstream inventory is low, and there is an expectation of price increase in the peak season. In the short term, due to strong macro - level disturbances and increased trading risks, it is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and wait and see. For PVC, the futures price declined significantly. Previously, it was boosted by policies, and the market expected capacity reduction. The spot market had light trading, and prices fluctuated slightly. The current supply - demand pattern is in the off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. Demand during the off - season is weak, foreign trade export orders are average, and inventory has slightly increased. In the short term, the trading logic is mainly affected by macro - level sentiment rather than the product's fundamentals, so it is recommended to wait and see [27][28]. Summary by Categories Methanol - **Price and Spread**: On July 23, MA2601 closed at 2497, down 1.54% from the previous day; MA2509 closed at 2411, down 1.87%. The MA91 spread was - 86, down 8.86%. The Taicang basis was - 1, up 97.62%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 2.39% to 2038 yuan/ton, and the Taicang - Inner Mongolia northern line regional spread decreased by 12.35% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of medium - sized methanol enterprises decreased by 3.55% to 33.983%; the methanol port inventory decreased by 8.15% to 726,000 tons; the social inventory decreased by 6.73% to 106.6% [1]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.94% to 71.09%, and the downstream MTO device operating rate remained unchanged at 75.54% [1]. Urea - **Price and Ratio**: The price of compound fertilizer 45%S (Henan) and 45%CL (Henan) remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively. The compound fertilizer - urea ratio was 1.48, unchanged [5]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: On July 25, the domestic daily urea production was 196,400 tons, down 0.25% from the previous day. The coal - based urea daily production was 154,700 tons, down 0.32%. The weekly domestic urea production was 1.3789 million tons, unchanged. The factory inventory decreased by 4.10% to 858,800 tons, and the order days of production enterprises decreased by 1.98% to 5.94 days [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Cash Flow and Spread**: On July 23, the non - integrated EB cash flow was 180, down 5.3% from the previous day; the integrated EB cash flow was 306, down 11.7%. The EB - BZ spot spread was 1460, down 0.3% [8]. - **Inventory**: As of July 21, the pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 171,000 tons, up 4.3% from July 14; the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 150,700 tons, up 8.8% [8]. - **Operating Rate**: As of July 17, the Asian pure benzene operating rate was 77.4%, up 0.7% from July 10; the domestic pure benzene operating rate was 78.1%, up 0.3% [8]. LLDPE and PP - **Price and Spread**: On July 23, the PP2509 closed at 7096, down 1.00% from the previous day; the L2509 - 2601 spread was - 58, down 20.83%. The North China plastic basis was - 110, up 26.67% [11]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased by 12.48% to 493,000 tons, and the social inventory increased by 3.69% to 537,000 tons. The PP enterprise inventory increased by 1.95% to 581,000 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 3.21% to 155,000 tons [11]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.10% to 77.8%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.47% to 37.9%. The PP device operating rate decreased by 1.1% to 76.6%, and the PP powder operating rate increased by 6.9% to 36.3% [11]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On July 24, Brent M1 - M3 was 1.16 dollars, down 13.43% from the previous day; WTI M1 - M3 was 1.36 dollars, up 5.43%. The Brent - WTI spread was 3.07 dollars, down 5.83% [13]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB was 211.94 cents/gallon, down 0.09% from July 23; NYM ULSD was 245.20 cents/gallon, up 0.12% [13]. PTA, MEG, and Related Products - **PTA**: On July 23, the PTA East China spot price was 4775 yuan/ton, up 0.7% from the previous day; the TA09 - TA01 spread was 4, down 60.0% [18]. - **MEG**: The MEG East China spot price was 4501 yuan/ton, up 0.2% from July 22; the MEG import profit was - 47 yuan/ton, up 10.2% [18]. Chlor - Alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC) - **Supply - Side**: As of July 18, the caustic soda industry operating rate was 86.3%, up 1.3% from July 11; the PVC total operating rate was 75.0%, down 0.1% [24]. - **Demand - Side**: The viscose staple fiber industry operating rate was 84.6%, up 8.7% from July 11; the Longzhong sample pipe operating rate was 33.8%, down 10.4% [25][26]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, the liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories was 213,000 tons, up 13.8% from July 10; the PVC total social inventory was 411,000 tons, up 4.7% [27].