| 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF509) | 78.10% | 5528 | 5370 | 158 | 2.94% | 硅锰(SM509) | 5820 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 5670 | 150 | 50.50% | 2.65% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 85 | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 3080 | 5662 | 44.80% | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 2.84% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 热卷 (HC2510) | ୧୪ | 3190 | 2.21% | 46.10% | 3121 | | | | | | 41 | 758 | 717 | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 5.76% | 34.60% | 铁矿石 (12509) | 焦炭(J2509) | 1422 | 129 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - On June 30, 2025, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM in the stock index futures market all increased. Specifically, for IF, Guojun (Guotai Junan Futures) increased both long and short positions by over 2000 lots; for IH, Guojun increased both long and short positions by over 1000 lots; for IC, CITIC increased short positions by over 1000 lots; and for IM, CITIC increased both long and short positions by over 1000 lots [1][4][10][16][21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs IF - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On June 27, the total position of the IF variety increased by 10,216 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 3,684 lots [4] - **Top Twenty Long Position Seats' Position Changes**: Among the top twenty long position seats of the IF variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 45,292 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 2,998 lots during the day, while Huatai Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 912 lots [5] - **Top Twenty Short Position Seats' Position Changes**: Among the top twenty short position seats of the IF variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 47,234 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 2,658 lots during the day, while Guotou Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 782 lots [7] IH - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On June 27, the total position of the IH variety increased by 8,622 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 4,634 lots [10] - **Top Twenty Long Position Seats' Position Changes**: Among the top twenty long position seats of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 11,830 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,724 lots during the day, while Rongda Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 201 lots [11] - **Top Twenty Short Position Seats' Position Changes**: Among the top twenty short position seats of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 14,470 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,857 lots during the day, while Huatai Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 342 lots [12] IC - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On June 27, the total position of the IC variety increased by 5,734 lots, and the position of the main contract 2507 increased by 1,525 lots [16] - **Top Twenty Long Position Seats' Position Changes**: Among the top twenty long position seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 36,042 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 946 lots during the day, while Guotou Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 206 lots [16] - **Top Twenty Short Position Seats' Position Changes**: Among the top twenty short position seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 43,297 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,141 lots during the day, while GF Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 289 lots [18] IM - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On June 27, the total position of the IM variety increased by 7,771 lots, and the position of the main contract 2509 increased by 6,063 lots [21] - **Top Twenty Long Position Seats' Position Changes**: Among the top twenty long position seats of the IM variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 43,876 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,615 lots during the day, while GF Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 569 lots [21] - **Top Twenty Short Position Seats' Position Changes**: Among the top twenty short position seats of the IM variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 64,977 lots. CITIC Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,846 lots during the day, while GF Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 475 lots [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Steel - Steel is in the off - season, with expectations of further demand decline. It maintains a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. - Short - term, the marginal decline in coking coal supply drives price rebound. Macroscopically, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation boosts metals, and hot - rolled coils and rebar may rebound, but there are still pressure levels at 3150 for hot - rolled coils and 3050 for rebar. Suggest rebound - shorting operations or selling out - of - the - money call options [1]. Iron Ore - Short - term, iron ore may run steadily and strongly, but the medium - to - long - term view for the 09 contract remains bearish. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 690 - 740 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - For coke, the spot fundamentals are still relatively loose. It is recommended to hedge the 2509 contract on rebounds, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. - For coking coal, the spot fundamentals have improved. It is recommended to go long on the 2509 contract on dips and also consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Price and Spread - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3060, 3160, and 3170 yuan/ton respectively; 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 2978, 2973, and 2978 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3180, 3100, and 3170 yuan/ton respectively; 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3097, 3103, and 3101 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Billet price is 2880 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Profits of rebar in East China, North China, and South China are 90, 200, and 160 yuan/ton respectively, all down 10 yuan; profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China are 200, 120, and 180 yuan/ton respectively, with South China down 10 yuan [1]. Production - Daily average hot - metal output is 242.1 tons, down 0.1 tons. - Outputs of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils are 881.0, 217.8, and 327.2 tons respectively, increasing by 1.4%, 2.7%, and 0.6% [1]. Inventory - Inventories of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils are 1340.0, 549.0, and 341.2 tons respectively, with rebar down 0.4% and the other two showing small increases [1]. Demand - Building materials trading volume increased by 6.2%. - Apparent demands of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils are 879.9, 219.9, and 326.3 tons respectively, with five - major products and hot - rolled coils down and rebar up slightly [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - Spot prices of various iron ore types at Rizhao Port remained unchanged. - The 09 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 57.4%, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads remained unchanged [4]. Supply - 45 - port weekly arrivals increased by 7.5% to 2562.7 tons; global weekly shipments increased by 4.6% to 3506.7 tons; monthly national imports decreased by 4.9% to 9813.1 tons [4]. Demand - Weekly average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons; weekly average 45 - port dredging volume increased by 4.1% to 313.6 tons; monthly national pig - iron and crude - steel outputs increased by 2.1% and 0.6% respectively [4]. Inventory - 45 - port inventory increased by 0.5% to 13968.02 tons; 247 steel mills' imported - ore inventory increased by 1.6% to 8936.2 tons; 64 steel mills' inventory - available days remained at 19 days [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Price and Spread - Coke: Futures prices of 09 and 01 contracts increased, while spot prices were stable. The fourth round of price cuts in coke landed on June 23. - Coking coal: Futures prices of 09 and 01 contracts increased, and spot prices were stable and slightly strong [7]. Supply - Coke production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly. - Coking coal: Domestic production decreased, with some regions affected by environmental protection and accidents. Mongolian coal prices rebounded slightly, and seaborne coal imports had profit inversion [7]. Demand - Coke: 6 - month hot - metal output remained above 2.4 million tons per day, with blast - furnace start - up slightly decreasing. - Coking coal: Coking start - up began to decline, and hot - metal output showed a downward trend after peaking [7]. Inventory - Coke: Total inventory decreased, with inventories in coking plants, steel mills, and ports all decreasing. - Coking coal: Coal - mine inventory decreased, and downstream replenishment led to some inventory increases. Overall inventory was at a medium level [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 yuan/ton and monitor raw material conditions in various producing areas and macro - event disturbances [1]. Industrial Silicon - In the short - term, the industrial silicon futures price rises supported by demand recovery and production cuts. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the fundamentals have not improved. Pay attention to inventory accumulation and hedging arbitrage pressure [4]. Polysilicon - The current contradiction in the polysilicon market lies in the mismatch between weak demand and high supply, leading to a strong expectation of price decline. If production cuts are implemented, prices may stabilize and rebound. Monitor production changes [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The short - term impact of a plant disruption is expected to be limited. In the long - run, the supply is in excess, and there will be a process of further profit reduction. Maintain a short - selling strategy on rebounds [6]. - **Glass**: In the summer rainy season, the glass industry faces over - supply pressure. Wait for more cold - repair to occur for a real market reversal. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 950 - 1050 yuan/ton [6]. Logs - The log market is entering a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 07 contract is expected to fluctuate and is recommended to be observed [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 13,850 yuan/ton, with a 0.73% increase [1]. - The whole - milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 170 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton, a - 850.00% change [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 845 yuan/ton, a 0.59% increase [1]. - The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a - 20.00% change [1]. Fundamental Data - In April, Thailand's production decreased by 43.5 thousand tons to 105.7 thousand tons, a - 29.16% change [1]. - In April, Indonesia's production decreased by 15.2 thousand tons to 194.1 thousand tons, a - 7.26% change [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded - area inventory increased by 1410 tons to 606,975 tons, a 0.23% increase [1]. - The natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory at the SHFE decreased by 2620 tons to 32,256 tons, a - 7.51% change [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon increased by 50 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase [4]. - The basis of SI5530 decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 645 yuan/ton, a - 3.01% change [4]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, a - 57.14% change [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the national industrial silicon production increased by 0.69 million tons to 30.77 million tons, a 2.29% increase [4]. - In May, Xinjiang's industrial silicon production decreased by 0.44 million tons to 16.31 million tons, a - 2.60% change [4]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.29 million tons to 17.29 million tons, a - 1.65% change [4]. - The social inventory decreased by 1.7 million tons to 54.2 million tons, a - 3.04% change [4]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 34,500 yuan/ton [5]. - The N - type material basis (average price) decreased by 1090 yuan/ton to 2785 yuan/ton, a - 28.13% change [5]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The PS2506 contract increased by 1090 yuan/ton to 31,715 yuan/ton, a 3.56% increase [5]. - The PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 225 yuan/ton to 630 yuan/ton, a - 26.32% change [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.09 million tons to 2.36 million tons, a - 3.67% change [5]. - In May, the polysilicon import volume decreased by 0.21 million tons to 0.08 million tons, a - 72.71% change [5]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 27 million tons, a 3.05% increase [5]. - The silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.37 GW to 20.11 GW, a 7.31% increase [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass quote remained unchanged at 1140 yuan/ton [6]. - The glass 2505 contract increased by 6 yuan/ton to 1113 yuan/ton, a 0.54% increase [6]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quote remained unchanged at 1350 yuan/ton [6]. - The soda ash 2509 contract increased by 14 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton, a 1.17% increase [6]. Supply - The soda ash production rate increased by 6.33 percentage points to 84.90% [6]. - The soda ash weekly production increased by 5.51 million tons to 74.01 million tons, an 8.04% increase [6]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 192,300 heavy - boxes to 6,968,500 heavy - boxes, a 2.84% increase [6]. - The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 6.2 million tons to 168.63 million tons, a 3.82% increase [6]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - The log 2507 contract increased by 7 yuan/cubic meter to 818 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.86% increase [8]. - The log 2509 contract decreased by 3.5 yuan/cubic meter to 793.5 yuan/cubic meter, a - 0.44% change [8]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.008 to 7.160, a 0% change [8]. - The import theoretical cost decreased by 0.8 yuan/cubic meter to 775.13 yuan/cubic meter, a 0% change [8]. Supply - The port shipping volume increased by 22.8 million cubic meters to 195.5 million cubic meters, a 13.20% increase [8]. Inventory - The national log inventory decreased by 10 million cubic meters to 335 million cubic meters, a - 2.90% change [8]. Demand - The average daily log outbound volume increased by 0.38 million cubic meters to 6.36 million cubic meters [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a daily spread report for all varieties on June 27, 2025, including data on various commodities such as metals, agricultural products, energy, and chemical products, with details on spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles [1][3]. 3. Summary by Categories Metals - **Ferrous Metals**: For silicon iron (SF509), the spot price is 5528, the futures price is 5384, the basis is 144, and the basis rate is 2.67% with a historical quantile of 76.30%. For silicon manganese (SM509), the spot price is 5676, the futures price is 5790, the basis is -114, and the basis rate is -2.01% with a historical quantile of 45.50%. Similar data is provided for other ferrous metals like螺纹钢 (RB2510), 热卷 (HC2510), 铁矿石 (I2509), 焦炭 (J2509), and 焦煤 (JM2509) [1]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: For copper (CU2508), the spot price is 78940, the futures price is 78890, the basis is 50, and the basis rate is 0.06% with a historical quantile of 46.66%. For aluminum (AL2508), the spot price is 20610, the futures price is 20445, the basis is 165, and the basis rate is 0.81% with a historical quantile of 85.41%. Other non - ferrous metals such as zinc (ZN2508), tin (SN2508), nickel (NI2508), stainless steel (SS2508), and lithium carbonate (LC2509) also have their respective data presented [1]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold (AU2508), the spot price is 775.3, the futures price is 773.3, the basis is 2.0, and the basis rate is 0.26% with a historical quantile of 40.10%. For silver (AG2508), the spot price is 8796.0, the futures price is 8773.0, the basis is 23.0, and the basis rate is 0.26% with a historical quantile of 32.70% [1]. Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2509), the spot price is 2936.0, the futures price is 2820, the basis is 116.0, and the basis rate is 3.95% with a historical quantile of 12.90%. For soybean oil (Y2509), the spot price is 8140, the futures price is 8000.0, the basis is 140.0, and the basis rate is 1.75% with a historical quantile of 20.00%. Other agricultural products like palm oil (P2509), rapeseed meal (RM509), rapeseed oil (O1509), corn (C2509), corn starch (CS2509), live pigs (LH2509), eggs (JD2508), cotton (CF509), sugar (SR509), apples (AP510), and jujubes (CJ509) are also covered [1]. Energy and Chemicals - For p - xylene (PX509), the spot price is 6959.7, the futures price is 6722.0, the basis is 237.7, and the basis rate is 3.54% with a historical quantile of 87.90%. For PTA (TA509), the spot price is 5030.0, the futures price is 4770.0, the basis is 260.0, and the basis rate is 5.45% with a historical quantile of 84.90%. Other energy and chemical products such as ethylene glycol (EG2509), styrene (EB2508), methanol (MA509), urea (UR509), LLDPE (L2509), PP (PP2509), PVC (V2509), caustic soda (SH209), LPG (PG2508), asphalt (BU2509), butadiene rubber (BR2508), glass (FG509), and soda ash (SA509) are included in the report [1]. Financial Futures - For stock index futures such as IF2509.CFF, the spot price is 3946.0, the futures price is 3904.2, the basis is - 41.8, and the basis rate is - 1.07% with a historical quantile of 6.70%. For bond futures like 2 - year bond (TS2509), 5 - year bond (TF2509), 10 - year bond (T2509), and 30 - year bond (TL2509), their respective data on spot prices, futures prices, bases, basis rates, and historical quantiles are provided [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific operation suggestions for various commodities, which can be roughly summarized as follows: - **Buy**: Iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (in certain circumstances), urea, short - fiber, bottle - chip, soybean meal and rapeseed meal (short - term), live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar (short - term), glass, polysilicon (with caution), lithium carbonate [2] - **Sell**: Synthetic rubber, styrene, caustic soda (mid - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, sugar (rebound), cotton, eggs (near - month), apples, peanuts, pure membrane, rubber, industrial silicon [2] - **Hold/Observe**: Stock index futures, treasury bonds, precious metals, container shipping index, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil (short - term), PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, styrene, caustic soda (short - term), PVC, LLDPE, PP, methanol, soybean meal and rapeseed meal, live pigs, corn, palm oil, soybean oil, cottonseed oil, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, peanuts, glass, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate [2][4] 2. Core Views - **Financial Markets**: The stock index has sector rotation and upward pressure. The bond market may have short - term fluctuations but remains generally strong. Gold and silver prices show different trends due to factors such as inflation data and macro - policies [2] - **Industrial Commodities**: Industrial materials in the steel sector have poor demand and inventory. The iron ore market has high - level iron water production and resilient terminal demand. The coal market has weak - stable spot prices and improved trading [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts. Different products have different trends, such as PTA and short - fiber with supply - demand changes and cost - related impacts [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, the price of live pigs is affected by early - stage diarrhea in piglets, and the price of sugar is affected by overseas supply prospects [2] - **Special Commodities**: Special commodities like glass and rubber are affected by factors such as production, supply, and market sentiment. For example, glass has better spot market sales, and rubber has a weakening fundamental outlook [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial Commodities - **Stock Index Futures**: Observe the discount state of index futures, recommend buying the deeply discounted 09 contracts of CSI 1000 on dips and selling out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contracts above 6300 to form a covered call portfolio [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: On the unilateral strategy, buy treasury bond futures on dips. On the cash - and - carry strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and consider steepening the yield curve [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices fluctuate between $3300 - 3400. Try the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money gold options. Silver prices are strongly oscillating between $36 - 37 [2] Industrial Commodities - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For the steel rebar RB2510, consider the long - material and short - raw - material arbitrage operation [2] - **Iron Ore**: Iron water production remains high, and terminal demand is resilient. Buy on dips with an upper pressure level around 720 [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal trading has improved, and the price is expected to rise. Coke prices are close to the bottom. Consider the long - coking - coal and short - coke strategy [2] Energy and Chemical Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The market is driven by fundamentals, with a stalemate between bulls and bears. The upper pressure of Brent is in the range of [64, 65], and the pressure level of SC is in the range of [490, 500]. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [2][4] - **PTA and Related Products**: PTA and short - fiber have supply - demand changes. PTA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, and short - fiber is expected to repair processing fees [2] Agricultural Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The diarrhea of piglets at the beginning of the year may affect subsequent supply, and the market sentiment is strong. Be cautiously bullish [2] - **Sugar**: Overseas supply prospects are relatively loose. Trade short on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: The spot market sales are improving, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [2] - **Rubber**: The fundamental outlook is weakening, and short positions should be held if the price is above 14000 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to interest - rate cut expectations and CL spread drivers, but weak macro - expectations limit the upside. The reference range for the main contract is 78,000 - 81,000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150. It is recommended to arrange short positions at high levels in the medium - to - long term. Aluminum prices are supported by the macro - environment, low inventory, and high aluminum - water ratio, but the consumption off - season restricts the upside. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely at high levels [4]. Zinc - Short - term overseas interest - rate cut expectations boost zinc prices, but downstream acceptance is low after the price increase. In the medium - to - long term, a rebound - selling strategy is recommended, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel futures market is expected to adjust weakly within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 124,000. The cost support for refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market fundamentals are weak. The supply is high, demand is soft, and inventory reduction is slow. The short - term market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 13,000 [11]. Tin - Short - term tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to tight supply, but pessimistic demand expectations prevail. A strategy of shorting at high levels based on supply - side recovery and inventory inflection points is recommended [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply is sufficient, and demand is stable but hard to boost. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 58,000 - 62,000 [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 78,940 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 35 yuan/ton to 65 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12% month - on - month; imports were 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 20,610 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,260 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month; imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [7]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 121,650 yuan/ton, up 1.76% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,900 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in May was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; imports were 8,832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [9]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 12,700 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous day. The spot - futures spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton to 235 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production in April (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [11]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price rose to 265,800 yuan/ton, up 1.41% from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 750 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 60,600 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate premium decreased by 220 yuan/ton to - 480 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34% month - on - month; demand was 83,960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For steel, the current situation is a low-demand season with cost drag and weak demand expectations. There may be a short - term rebound due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, but it is still recommended to take a bearish approach on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. - For iron ore, it may be stable and slightly strong in the short term, with the June average hot - metal output expected to stay above 2.4 million tons. However, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips in the range of 690 - 740 [4]. - For coke, the futures are in an upward - trending oscillation, and the spot is stable. It is recommended to hedge the 2509 contract on rebounds, and consider a long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage strategy [7]. - For coking coal, the futures are rising in an oscillatory manner, and the spot is stable and slightly strong. It is recommended to buy the 2509 contract on dips and consider a long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage strategy [7]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some steel products have changed. For example, the spot price of rebar in the South China region increased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in the East and North China regions decreased. The 05 contract price of hot - rolled coils increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar remained unchanged. The profit of East China rebar decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average hot - metal output decreased slightly, while the output of five major steel products increased by 1.4%. The rebar output increased by 2.7%, with the electric - arc furnace output increasing by 6.8% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased slightly, the rebar inventory decreased by 0.4%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.3% [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 6.2%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.5%, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 0.3% [1]. Iron Ore - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some iron ore varieties remained unchanged, and the 09 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 57.4% [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 7.5% week - on - week, and the global shipment volume increased by 4.6%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased slightly, the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume increased by 4.1%, and the national pig iron monthly output increased by 2.1% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.5%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Spread**: The coke 09 contract increased by 0.6%, and the coking coal 09 contract increased by 1.94%. The coking profit decreased, and the sample coal mine profit decreased by 7.5% [7]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3%, and the raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 1.1% [7]. - **Demand**: The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and the demand for coke decreased [7]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 1.3%, and the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.7% [7].

目录： 股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2506 | 持仓有所下降 | 前二十席位以减仓为主 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2506 | 持仓有所下降 | 中信多空头减仓 1000 手以上 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2506 | 总持仓明显下降 | 国君、中信多空头均减仓 2000 手 以上 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2506 | 总持仓明显下降 | 中信多空头减仓逾 4000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -3,562.0 -4,343.0 -5,170.0 -8,357.0 -10,070.0 -7,525.0 -11,072.0 -16,038.0 -18,000 -16,000 -14,000 -12,000 -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian palm oil futures may face downward pressure due to concerns about production recovery and slowing export growth. Domestic palm oil futures are expected to fall further. CBOT soybean oil may continue to decline but with limited跌幅. Domestic soybean oil prices are supported, and basis quotes are expected to be slightly adjusted [1]. Meal Industry - Affected by the decline in crude oil and fully - priced - in short - term positive factors, US soybeans have recently declined. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising. The unilateral trend of soybean meal is not yet clear, and the futures may follow the decline of US soybeans in the short term, but the downside support is expected to strengthen [2]. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is still in a shock structure. The current breeding profit is declining, but self - breeding and self - raising still have profits. The market is cautious about expanding production capacity. The short - term futures may be strong, but there is a risk of decline near the delivery of the 09 contract if the live inventory continues to be postponed [4][5]. Corn Industry - In the short term, the corn price is firm, but the upside is limited due to feed substitution. In the long term, the supply is tight, the import volume is low, and the consumption is increasing, so the price is expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Sugar Industry - Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern. If there are no new negative factors, the possibility of a sharp decline in sugar prices is small. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom this week [11][12]. Cotton Industry - The market driving force is still weak, and the downstream开机 rate continues to decline while the finished product inventory rises. However, the basis of old - crop cotton is still relatively strong. The short - term domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range [13]. Egg Industry - The national egg supply is still relatively sufficient. The price is expected to rise slightly and then stabilize this week, and may decline slightly later [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Prices**: On June 26, 2025, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8240 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7626 yuan, down 0.52%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8490 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of P2509 was 8230 yuan, up 0.12%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9680 yuan, down 0.52%; the futures price of 01509 was 9242 yuan, down 0.04% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread was - 250 yuan, unchanged; the 2509 spread was - 360 yuan, unchanged. The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread was 1440 yuan, down 3.47%; the 2509 spread was 1492 yuan, down 0.67% [1]. Meal Industry - **Prices**: On June 26, 2025, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2880 yuan, down 0.69%; the futures price of M2509 was 2993 yuan, down 1.90%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2500 yuan, down 2.80%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2588 yuan, down 1.47% [2]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread was 380 yuan, up 13.16%; the 2509 spread was 405 yuan, down 4.69% [2]. Pig Industry - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the pig 2507 contract was 13615 yuan/ton, up 0.26%; the price of the 2509 contract was 14000 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [4]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. The sample - point slaughter volume decreased by 0.75%, the white - strip price decreased by 0.10%, the piglet price increased by 3.17%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 768.97% [4]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the corn 2509 contract was 2377 yuan, up 0.04%. The import profit was 539 yuan, up 4.03%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 60.84% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2732 yuan, down 0.15%. The Shandong starch profit was - 81 yuan, down 17.28% [7]. Sugar Industry - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5577 yuan/ton, up 0.43%; the price of the 2509 contract was 5757 yuan/ton, up 0.57% [11]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 6070 yuan/ton, up 0.16%; the price in Kunming was 5860 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 11.63% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales increased by 26.07% [11]. Cotton Industry - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13645 yuan/ton, up 0.55%; the price of the 2601 contract was 13625 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [13]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14832 yuan/ton, up 0.84%; the CC Index: 3128B was 14938 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The inventory in the north decreased by 9.6% month - on - month, and the cotton outbound shipment volume increased by 22.6% [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the price of the egg 09 contract was 3658 yuan/500KG, up 0.05%; the price of the 07 contract was 2848 yuan/500KG, down 0.84% [15]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.78 yuan/jin, down 0.74%. The breeding profit was - 27.88 yuan/feather, down 19.30% [15].