1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports LLDPE and PP - PP has short - term maintenance returns and new production is progressing smoothly, with output at a year - on - year high. After the decline of the PE market, the basis strengthens, and arbitrageurs have good sales. In June, imports decreased significantly, with a slight increase expected in July. Demand is suppressed by the off - season. The strategy is that PE is expected to be range - bound, and PP is bearish on a single - side basis [36]. Methanol - The market's expectation of methanol imports has increased due to the easing of the Iranian situation, and the premium caused by geopolitical factors has been reversed. Currently, port arrivals are still low, inventory is at a low level, and the port basis is strong. Attention should be paid to the actual shipments after the restart of Iranian plants. The domestic supply is tight due to long - term maintenance at Henan Dahua and planned maintenance in Guanzhong. Demand is in the seasonal off - season. Short - term outlook is to wait and see [38]. Benzene and Styrene - The price of pure benzene continues to be weak. The overnight price of raw materials has declined, and some planned benzene - ethylene plant restarts have been suspended due to high ethylene prices. At the same time, the high - load operation of ethylene in major refineries has led to a significant increase in pure benzene supply, putting pressure on its price. In the benzene - ethylene market in East China, the market is generally stable. As the end - of - month paper - cargo delivery approaches, the basis price is relatively strong, with market transactions mainly for exchange, and overall high - price trading is limited. Downstream buyers are hesitant at high prices. In the medium term, tariffs and national subsidies may not further stimulate terminal demand. High profits in benzene - ethylene may stimulate production, and there is still pressure on the supply - demand margin, with an expected valuation repair relying on a decline in benzene - ethylene. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for benzene - ethylene resonating with raw materials [43]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices remained range - bound, as macro and fundamental factors counteracted each other. Trump reaffirmed the "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, including restricting its oil export revenue, but hinted that China could continue to buy Iranian oil and planned to talk with Iran next week. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has alleviated concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East, and oil prices have recovered from the sharp decline at the beginning of the week. Fundamentally, inventories have declined for the fifth consecutive week, reaching an 11 - year seasonal low, and the inventory at the Cushing storage center has also declined for three consecutive weeks to the lowest level since February, supporting the market. The market focus is expected to shift to the OPEC+ meeting on July 6. Currently, Russia has stated that it will support production increases if the alliance deems it necessary. If OPEC maintains high - speed production increases, the fundamental surplus in the third quarter may continue to pressure the market, causing the center of gravity to fall. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the support for WTI at [63, 64], the upper - end pressure for Brent at [64, 65], and the pressure level for SC at [490, 500]. Option traders can look for opportunities as volatility narrows [47]. Urea - Short - term suggestions focus on three aspects: export - related developments, including market expectations before the Indian tender and actual port - collection volumes; the implementation of supply - side maintenance, especially whether major factories such as Shandong Mingshengda and Henan Jinkai will stop production as scheduled; and marginal changes in demand, such as weather factors and industrial procurement rhythms. The strategy is to consider going long on dips, as the rebound logic driven by news has not been fully realized, and export policy optimization and the Indian tender may continue to provide support. However, strict stop - losses should be set to prevent the risk of unmet expectations [77]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Near - term PX plants are under maintenance, and downstream PTA and polyester loads are high in the short term, providing support for PX at low levels. However, weak terminal demand and limited oil - price support suppress PX. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term. The PX09 contract is expected to oscillate between 6500 - 6900, and single - side trading is on hold. - PTA: Despite plant maintenance at Fuhai Chuang and Hengli, new production capacity and weak downstream demand and terminal load lead to a weakening supply - demand outlook. PTA has limited self - driving force and will follow the cost side. TA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900 in the short term, with single - side trading on hold and a rolling reverse - spread operation for TA9 - 1. - Ethylene Glycol: Iranian ethylene - glycol plants are restarting, and shipments are normal. The restart of domestic plants and weak demand expectations mean that supply - demand cannot drive price increases. With geopolitical factors cooling and oil prices weakening, ethylene glycol is expected to decline. The strategy is to hold short - term call - option sellers for EG2509 - C - 4450. - Short - fiber: The current supply - demand is weak. Due to planned production cuts in July and low inventory at short - fiber factories, the absolute price is slightly more supported than raw materials, and the processing margin on the futures market has recovered. The absolute price will follow raw materials. The strategy is the same as PTA for single - side trading, and to expand the processing margin at low levels, while paying attention to the implementation of production cuts. - Bottle - grade polyester: June is the peak season for soft - drink consumption. Some bottle - grade polyester plants have cut production. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement, and the processing margin is bottoming out. The absolute price will follow the cost side. The strategy is the same as PTA for single - side trading, and to look for opportunities to expand the processing margin when it reaches the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [80]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: Some plants have restarted, and current good profits may stimulate production. Downstream non - aluminum demand is weak in the off - season, and the continuous reduction of alumina purchase prices is negative for the spot market. However, due to the recovery of alumina profits and increased production, overall demand is still supported. Weekly alkali - plant inventory has decreased, and the futures is at a discount to the spot. In the short term, there is limited downward momentum for the caustic - soda futures, but it may fluctuate. In the third quarter, new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and alumina profits may weaken, providing no positive drive for caustic soda. Considering the high - profit valuation of caustic soda, its upside is limited. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term. - PVC: The short - term contradiction is not intensifying. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to the decline in the domestic real - estate sector, which drags down terminal demand, and there is no obvious negative feedback or clearance in the PVC industry. Currently, PVC maintenance is decreasing, and new production is expected in June - July, increasing supply pressure. Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, and exports are maintained after the extension of BIS. The social inventory has slightly increased, and further drivers need to be verified. The short - term strategy is to wait for rebounds and new drivers to look for short - selling opportunities [89]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 closing prices increased, with changes ranging from 0.34% to 0.40%. L2509 - 2601 increased by 8.51%, while PP2509 - 2601 decreased by 5.17%. Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE decreased slightly, and the basis of North - China plastics and East - China PP changed significantly [36]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE device operating rate decreased by 2.86%, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.42%. PE enterprise inventory decreased by 10.25%, and social inventory decreased by 16.91%. PP device operating rate increased by 1.2%, powder - material operating rate decreased by 1.3%, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.2%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 3.72%, and trader inventory decreased by 9.21% [36]. Methanol - **Prices and Changes**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices increased, with MA2509 rising 1.09%. MA91 spread increased by 38.46%, and the Taicang basis increased by 37.01%. Spot prices in different regions changed, with the port - to - inland price difference increasing [38]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 7.02%, port inventory increased by 14.34%, and social inventory increased by 6.11%. Domestic upstream operating rate increased by 0.85%, overseas upstream decreased by 22.67%, northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio decreased by 8.94%, downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 6.84%, formaldehyde decreased by 0.38%, and fatty acid increased by 4.50% [38]. Benzene and Styrene - **Raw - material Prices**: Brent crude oil was stable, CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.7%, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was unchanged, CFR Korea and China pure benzene decreased by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The pure - benzene - to - naphtha spread decreased slightly, and the ethylene - to - naphtha spread increased by 3.7% [40]. - **Benzene and Styrene Prices**: The East - China spot price of benzene - ethylene increased by 1.2%, EB2507 and EB2508 decreased by 1.4% and 1.0% respectively. The basis increased by 44.2%, and the month - spread decreased by 29.6% [41]. - **Industry Chain开工率 and Profits**: Domestic and Asian pure - benzene comprehensive operating rates changed by 1.2% and - 2.3% respectively. Benzene - ethylene operating rate increased by 7.0%, PS by 0.7%, EPS decreased by 3.3%, and ABS decreased by 0.2%. Benzene - ethylene integrated profit decreased by 76.8%, non - integrated profit increased by 13.1%, PS profit decreased by 39.5%, EPS increased by 42.9%, and ABS decreased by 105.3%. Port inventories of pure benzene and benzene - ethylene changed by 2.7% and - 15.3% respectively [43]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased slightly, while SC decreased by 1.46%. Brent M1 - M3, SC M1 - M3 decreased, and WTI M1 - M3 increased. Brent - WTI and SC - Brent spreads decreased, and EFS increased [47]. - **Refined - product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices increased, with changes ranging from 0.46% to 1.39%. RBOB M1 - M3 and ULSD M1 - M3 increased, and Gasoil M1 - M3 was unchanged [47]. - **Refined - product Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in the US, Europe, and Singapore increased to varying degrees [47]. Urea - **Prices and Changes**: Futures contract prices decreased slightly, and the basis in different regions changed significantly. Spot prices in most regions increased slightly, and the cross - regional spread changed [69][73][74]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic daily urea production decreased by 1.95%, coal - based production decreased by 2.49%, and gas - based production was unchanged. Weekly production decreased by 2.83%, and plant - maintenance losses increased by 29.60%. Factory inventory decreased by 3.53%, and port inventory increased by 29.15%. Production - enterprise order days decreased by 1.75% [77]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China PX prices changed, with CFR Japan naphtha decreasing by 1.7% and CFR China PX increasing by 0.4% [80]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester chips, and other products decreased slightly, and cash flows and processing margins also changed to varying degrees [80]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Asian and Chinese PX operating rates decreased slightly, PTA operating rate decreased by 3.5%, MEG comprehensive operating rate increased by 4.1%, and polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.2%. MEG port inventory increased by 1.0%, and the expected arrival decreased by 38.0% [80]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Changes**: Prices of Shandong 32% and 50% caustic soda were unchanged, as were East - China PVC prices. SH2509 and SH2601 increased, while SH basis decreased by 20.2%. V2509 and V2601 changed slightly, and the V basis decreased by 0.8% [85]. - **开工率 and Profits**: Caustic - soda industry operating rate increased by 0.2%, PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.1%. Outer - sourced calcium - carbide PVC profit decreased by 5.8%, and Northwest integrated profit increased by 6.2% [87]. - **下游开工率 and Inventory**: Alumina, viscose - staple fiber, and printing - and - dyeing industry operating rates changed slightly. PVC downstream product operating rates decreased, and caustic - soda and PVC inventories changed to varying degrees [88][89].

x产业期现目报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月27日 现货价格及基差 品种 6月26日 6月25日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 13850 13750 100 0.73% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) -190 -20 -170 -850.00% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 13700 13600 100 0.74% 非标价差 -340 -170 -170 -100.00% 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 46.95 47.20 -0.25 -0.53% 泰铢/公斤 胶水：国际市场：FOB中间价 57.50 -0.25 57.25 -0.43% 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 12600 12600 0 0.00% 13200 0 天然橡胶：胶水：西双版纳州 13200 0.00% 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 12400 12400 0 0.00% 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 合约 6月26日 6月25日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 9-1价差 -845 -850 5 0.59% 1-5价差 -25 -5 -20.00 ...

Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Presents detailed data on stock index futures spreads, including price differences, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles for various futures contracts and cross - variety ratios [1] - **Summary by Related Content**: - **Spread Data**: Displays current and historical quantiles of price differences for multiple futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including spot - futures spreads, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios [1] - **Quantile Analysis**: Compares current spread values with historical data, showing the position of the current value within the historical distribution [1] Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Provides information on the basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures, along with their changes and historical quantiles [2] - **Summary by Related Content**: - **Basis Data**: Lists the basis values of different treasury bond futures contracts (TS, TF, T, TL) and their changes from the previous day, along with historical quantiles [2] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: Presents inter - period spreads for different contract months and their changes and historical quantiles [2] - **Cross - variety Spread Data**: Shows cross - variety spreads between different treasury bond futures contracts and their changes [2] Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Analyzes the prices, basis, ratios, and related market indicators of domestic and foreign precious metals futures and spot markets [7] - **Summary by Related Content**: - **Price Data**: Compares the closing prices of domestic and foreign precious metals futures and spot markets on different days, showing price changes and percentage changes [7] - **Basis Data**: Calculates the basis between different precious metals contracts and their historical quantiles [7] - **Ratio Data**: Presents the ratios between different precious metals contracts and their changes [7] - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Data**: Lists the current and previous values of interest rates and exchange rates and their changes [7] Report 4: Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Analyzes the shipping industry's freight rates, index data, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data [12] - **Summary by Related Content**: - **Freight Rate Data**: Compares the shipping freight rates of different shipping companies between different days, showing price changes and percentage changes [12] - **Index Data**: Presents the settlement price indices of different shipping routes and their changes [12] - **Futures Price and Basis Data**: Lists the futures prices of different contracts and the basis of the main contract and their changes [12] - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export amounts, and overseas economic indicators [12] Report 5: Data/Information Calendar Report - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Lists overseas and domestic economic indicator data and financial events for different time periods [15] - **Summary by Related Content**: - **Overseas Data/Information**: Includes macro - data, agricultural product - related data, and CFTC position reports from different countries and regions [15] - **Domestic Data/Information**: Contains economic indicators and financial events for different domestic commodity sectors such as black and non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, and special commodities [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall A - share market shows sector rotation, with the index facing resistance above. The futures market also shows corresponding fluctuations, and different investment strategies are recommended according to different varieties [2][3][4]. - The sentiment in the Treasury bond futures market has warmed up, but there are still short - term end - of - quarter disturbances. The bond market is generally expected to be in a pattern of short - term fluctuations but overall strength [5][6]. - The prices of precious metals are dominated by tariffs and macro - policies. Gold and silver show different trends. Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties, while silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend [8][10][11]. - The container shipping futures EC shows a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12]. - Different metals in the non - ferrous metals sector have different market conditions. For example, copper is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while aluminum oxide is expected to be weak in the medium - long term [13][17]. - In the black metals sector, steel is affected by coking coal supply, iron ore may be stable and strong in the short term, and coking coal and coke have different supply - demand and price trends [41][43][45]. - In the agricultural products sector, meal products follow the decline of US soybeans, and the market trends of different agricultural products such as pigs, corn, sugar, and cotton vary [51][54][57]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, the A - share market opened lower, rose briefly, and then declined in the afternoon. The main stock indexes and the four major stock index futures contracts all adjusted. The basis discount of the four major stock index futures contracts was repaired to some extent [2][3]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission will issue the third batch of consumer goods replacement funds in July. Overseas, Japan is negotiating tariffs with the US [3]. - **Funding**: On June 26, the A - share trading volume was basically the same as the previous day. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The index has stable support below and needs a driving force to break through above. It is recommended to try to buy the deeply discounted 09 contract of the CSI 1000 on dips and sell the 09 call option near 6300 to form a covered combination [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most Treasury bond futures closed flat, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 305.8 billion yuan. The central bank's attitude towards protecting liquidity is clear, and the end - of - month capital interest rate may fluctuate but is generally controllable [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The end - of - month capital situation still has disturbances, and the bond market is generally cautious. It is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on adjustments, pay attention to economic data and funding trends, and consider positive arbitrage for the TS2509 contract and curve steepening strategies [6][7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Due to factors such as tariff negotiations and macro - policies, the US dollar index weakened, and the trends of gold and silver diverged. Gold prices declined slightly, while silver prices rose [8][10]. - **Outlook**: Gold has a long - term upward trend but faces short - term uncertainties. It is recommended to try the strategy of double - selling out - of - the - money gold options. Silver shows a relatively strong short - term trend, and its price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of $36 - 37 [10][11]. - **Funding**: The recent stable trends of US stocks and bonds and the strong performance of virtual currencies suppress the prices of precious metals, but the long - position boost has led to a continuous increase in silver ETF holdings [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotation**: The spot prices of different shipping companies are provided [12]. - **Container Shipping Index**: The SCFIS European line index rose, while the US West line index declined. The SCFI composite index declined [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The demand side shows the PMI data of the eurozone and the US [12]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1800, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [12][13]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic copper increased, but the overall trading was inactive [13]. - **Macro**: The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, the dollar index has weakened, and the COMEX - LME spread has widened again, which is beneficial to copper prices [13][14]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrate is expected to be restricted, and the production of refined copper increased in May but is expected to decline slightly in June [15]. - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand of copper show different trends. The short - term domestic demand has resilience, but the "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [16]. - **Inventory**: COMEX inventory is accumulating, while domestic inventory is slightly decreasing [16]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 78000 - 81000 [17]. Aluminum Oxide - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum oxide decreased [17]. - **Supply**: The production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased in May, and some production capacities are expected to resume production in June [18]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of aluminum oxide decreased, and the total registered warehouse receipts decreased [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The supply of aluminum oxide is in a state of slight excess, and it is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices in the medium - long term, with the main contract referring to the range of 2750 - 3100 [19]. Aluminum - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [20]. - **Supply**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in May, and the aluminum - water ratio remained high. The production capacity is expected to remain high in June [20]. - **Demand**: Downstream industries are in the traditional off - season, and the operating rates of various industries have declined [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory decreased [21]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Aluminum prices are expected to be in a wide - range high - level shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19800 - 20800 [21]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The average spot price of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [21]. - **Supply**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased in May, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly in June [22]. - **Demand**: The demand is under pressure, and the market trading activity has decreased. The impact of the Sino - US economic and trade talks on actual demand has not yet been effective [22]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy has increased significantly [22]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be in a weak shock, with the main contract referring to the range of 19200 - 20000 [23]. Zinc - **Spot**: The average price of zinc ingots increased, but the downstream receiving willingness was low [23]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase in June [24]. - **Demand**: The demand at the initial end is weakening, and the downstream is mainly purchasing on dips [25]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory and LME inventory are both decreasing [25]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Zinc prices are expected to be in a shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 21500 - 23000 [26]. Tin - **Spot**: The price of tin increased, but the market trading was cold [26]. - **Supply**: The import of tin ore increased in May, mainly from Africa, while the supply from Myanmar remained low [27][28]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows different trends. The LME inventory decreased, while the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [28]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Tin prices are expected to be in a wide - range shock in the short term. It is recommended to short at high prices according to the inflection points of inventory and import data [29]. Nickel - **Spot**: The average price of electrolytic nickel increased [29]. - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the monthly production is expected to decline slightly [29]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [30]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory remains high, and the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend [30]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: Nickel prices are expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 116000 - 124000 [31]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The price of stainless steel increased slightly, and the basis decreased [32]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is expected to decline, and the price of nickel iron has decreased. The price of chrome ore has weak support [32]. - **Supply**: The production of stainless steel is expected to decrease slightly in June, with an increase in the 300 - series production [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts have decreased [34]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price of stainless steel is expected to be in a weak operation, with the main contract referring to the range of 12300 - 13000 [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the price of lithium hydroxide decreased [36]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase in June, and the supply is still sufficient [37]. - **Demand**: The demand is generally stable, but there is pressure in the off - season [37]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has been accumulating in all links [38]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak shock in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 58000 - 62000 [39]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The spot price remained stable, and the futures price fluctuated slightly [41]. - **Supply**: The production of steel decreased from a high level, and the production of five major steel products increased slightly [41]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased slightly, and the inventory was at a low level and basically balanced [41]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of steel is approaching the accumulation inflection point, with the inventory of rebar decreasing and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increasing slightly [42]. - **View**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for rebar and hot - rolled coil, and also consider selling out - of - the - money call options [42]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: The price of mainstream iron ore powder remained stable [43]. - **Futures**: The iron ore futures contract increased slightly [43]. - **Basis**: The basis of PB powder is 33.7 yuan/ton [43]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production remained at a high level, and the demand for iron ore has certain resilience [43]. - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at ports also increased [43][44]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased [44]. - **View**: Iron ore is expected to be stable and strong in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on dips, with the range referring to 690 - 740 [44]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price increased, and the spot price was weakly stable [45]. - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate of coal mines decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [45][46]. - **Demand**: The demand for coking coal increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [46]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal decreased [46]. - **View**: It is recommended to go long on dips for the coking coal 2509 contract in the short term and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [47][48]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The fourth round of price cuts was implemented [49]. - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke was negative [49]. - **Supply**: The production of coke decreased slightly [49]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke increased slightly, and the apparent demand increased [50]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke decreased [50]. - **View**: It is recommended to hedge the coke 2509 contract at high prices after the rebound, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [50]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal decreased, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was 300 tons, and the opening rate of rapeseed pressing plants was 17% [51]. - **Fundamentals**: Analysts expect the US soybean inventory and planting area. The export of Brazilian soybeans slowed down, and the soybean harvest in Ukraine is expected to decrease [52]. - **Market Outlook**: The soybean meal price may follow the decline of US soybeans, but the support is expected to gradually strengthen [53]. Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated, with an average price of 14.56 yuan/kg [54]. - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs increased, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening turned negative. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly [55]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price of pigs is in a shock structure. The short - term futures price may be strong, but there may be a decline risk near the delivery of the 09 contract [56]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The price of corn in Northeast China, North China, and ports remained stable, with a slight increase in the price at Shekou Port [57]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of corn in northern four ports and processing enterprises decreased, and the inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly [57][58]. - **Market Outlook**: The price of corn may decline slightly in the short term due to auction expectations, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - long term [58]. Sugar - **Market Analysis**: The global sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the price of raw sugar is expected to be in a weak shock. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a bottom - range shock, with the reference range of 5650 - 5850 [59]. - **Fundamentals**: The sugar production in Brazil increased in May, and the sugar production in Thailand is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. The import of sugar in China increased in May [59][60]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to short on rebounds [59]. Cotton - **Market Analysis**: The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a range shock, and it is necessary to pay attention to the macro and downstream demand [60]. - **Fundamentals**: The cotton planting progress in the US is slightly behind [61].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Short - term international situation is volatile, and risk preference drives market sentiment back. A - shares have a significant increase, and different futures varieties in various sectors present different trends and investment opportunities [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The large - finance sector continues to reach new highs, and A - shares rise with increased trading volume. It is recommended to buy the deeply discounted 09 contracts on dips in the CSI 1000 variety and sell the 09 call options near 6300 to form a covered combination [2]. Bond Futures - Near the end of the month, the bond market may anticipate the central bank's restart of bond purchases. The overall pattern of bond futures is short - term volatile but generally strong. In the unilateral strategy, bond futures can be appropriately bought on adjustments, and in the spot - futures strategy, attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and the steepening of the yield curve [2]. Precious Metals - The impact of geopolitical conflicts fades. The expectations of fiscal and monetary easing in Europe and the United States boost precious metals. It is recommended to continue the strategy of selling out - of - the - money options on both sides of gold, and silver prices are driven by easing expectations in the short term [2]. Shipping Index Futures - It is recommended to watch cautiously. The 08 contract of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850 [2]. Steel Futures - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is mainly a wait - and - see approach, and for arbitrage, the strategy of going long on finished products and short on raw materials can be considered [2]. Iron Ore Futures - It is recommended to try shorting on rebounds, with the upper pressure level around 720 [2]. Coking Coal Futures - It is recommended to go long on coking coal at low prices or go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. Coke Futures - It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. Base Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, etc.) - For copper, the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 78000 - 80000; for aluminum, between 19600 - 20600; for zinc, between 21500 - 22500. Each metal has its own supply - demand and price characteristics, and corresponding investment strategies are provided [2]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil: The market is mainly oscillating, and short - term long positions can be considered at low prices. For other chemical products such as PTA, PF, etc., different investment strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand and price trends [2]. Agricultural Futures - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends. For example, soybeans may have short - term corrections, and different trading strategies are given for each product [2]. Special and New Energy Commodity Futures - For special commodities like glass and rubber, and new energy commodities like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, corresponding price trends and investment strategies are provided [2].

| 硅铁 (SF509) | 5478 | 5374 | 104 | 1.94% | 71.30% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅锰(SM509) | 5770 | 5654 | 116 | 2.05% | 45.70% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 94 | HRB40020mm:上海 | 螺纹钢(RB2510) | 3070 | 2976 | 3.16% | 46.90% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 82 | 3180 | 热卷 (HC2510) | 3098 | 2.65% | 50.70% | | | | | | 48 | 750 | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12509) | 703 | 6.80% | 39.20% | 1265 | -123 | 23.81% | 焦 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market is in the off - season with high production and potential inventory accumulation pressure. The upward elasticity of steel prices is limited, and the volatility has decreased. It is suggested to try short positions, focus on the support levels of 3000 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 2900 yuan for rebar, or sell out - of - the - money call options. The cost drags down the market, and the demand expectation is weak. Although the decline in off - season demand is better than expected, the terminal demand may weaken in the future [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated. The global iron ore shipments increased this week, and the arrival volume at ports continued to rise. The demand side may maintain a relatively high level of hot - metal production in the short term, but the terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off - season. The port inventory and steel mills' equity ore inventory have increased. In the short term, there is obvious resistance above the iron ore price, and the 09 contract should be considered bearish in the medium - to - long term. The price range may shift down to 670 - 720 yuan [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures showed an oscillating upward trend, while the spot was weak. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was implemented on June 23, and there may be further cuts, but the phased bottom is gradually emerging. The supply is tightening marginally due to environmental protection and other factors, and the demand has rigid support with hot - metal production remaining above 240,000 tons per day. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to hedge the 2509 contract on rallies for spot traders, stay on the sidelines for speculators, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures oscillated upward, and the spot was stable with a slight upward trend. The domestic coking coal showed signs of stabilization, and the supply decreased in some regions due to environmental protection and other factors. The import coal had different situations, with Mongolian coal prices rebounding slightly and seaborne coal imports having a profit inversion. The demand had some resilience with hot - metal production remaining above 240,000 tons per day in June, and the inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal on dips for short - term trading and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions decreased slightly, while some futures contracts had small fluctuations. The cost of steel production had different changes, and the profit of various regions and varieties decreased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The output of five major steel products increased by 9.7 thousand tons (1.1%), rebar production increased by 4.6 thousand tons (2.2%), with electric - furnace production decreasing by 1.6 thousand tons (- 6.4%) and converter production increasing by 6.2 thousand tons (3.4%). Hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.8 thousand tons (0.2%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 15.7 thousand tons (- 1.2%), hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.2 thousand tons (- 1.5%), and rebar inventory decreased by 7.0 thousand tons (- 1.3%) [1]. Demand - The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 16.1 thousand tons (1.9%), rebar apparent demand decreased by 0.8 thousand tons (- 0.4%), and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 10.8 thousand tons (3.4%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly. The 09 - contract basis of most powders decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 yuan/ton (2.3%), the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton (- 1.9%), and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton (- 2.9%) [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 178.2 thousand tons (7.5%), the global shipments (weekly) increased by 154.0 thousand tons (4.6%), and the national monthly import volume decreased by 500.3 thousand tons (- 4.9%) [4]. Demand - The average daily hot - metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 0.6 thousand tons (0.2%), the average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports (weekly) increased by 12.3 thousand tons (4.1%), the national monthly pig - iron production increased by 153.1 thousand tons (2.1%), and the national monthly crude - steel production increased by 52.6 thousand tons (0.6%) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) increased by 73.9 thousand tons (0.5%), the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 137.6 thousand tons (1.6%), and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coke in some regions remained unchanged, the 09 - contract price increased by 2.7%, and the 01 - contract price increased by 2.0%. The coking profit (weekly) increased by 23 yuan/ton, with a 100% increase [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 thousand tons (- 0.5%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 thousand tons (0.3%) [7]. Demand - The hot - metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6 thousand tons (0.2%) [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 18.8 thousand tons (- 1.9%), the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 10.1 thousand tons (- 8.1%), the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 8.6 thousand tons (- 1.34%), and the port inventory remained unchanged [7]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 0.5 thousand tons (- 9.0%) [7]. Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coking coal in some regions remained unchanged, the 09 - contract price increased by 2.6%, and the 01 - contract price increased by 2.4%. The sample coal - mine profit (weekly) decreased by 24 yuan/ton (- 7.5%) [7]. Supply - The raw - coal production decreased by 9.8 thousand tons (- 1.1%), and the clean - coal production decreased by 3.4 thousand tons (- 0.8%) [7]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 thousand tons (- 0.5%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 thousand tons (0.3%) [7]. Inventory - The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 25.1 thousand tons (- 8.84%), the coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.3 thousand tons (- 0.3%), the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.7 thousand tons (0.14%), and the port inventory decreased by 8.7 thousand tons (- 2.8%) [7].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2025年6月26日 | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 成新值 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | 价元 | -37.27 | 11.40% | 14.37 | 8.10% | F期前份集 | | | | | | | | | | | | H期现价差 | -25.13 | 8.79 | 9.00% | 4.40% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -28.35 | 11.08 | 44.60% | 43.10% | -156.56 | 43.10 | IM期现价差 | 20.00% | 4.20% | | 次月-崇月 | 3.20 | 36.10% | -10.00 | 29.90% | 李月-崇月 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - In the "strong reality + weak expectation" scenario, copper prices lack a clear and smooth trend. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits price drops, while weak macro - expectations restrict upward movement. Short - term prices are likely to fluctuate. The "rush to export" demand may lead to pressure on the real demand side in Q3. The main reference range is 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 3150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to have a high - level wide - range fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,600 yuan/ton. The future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity [2]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the growth rate of the mining end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. Otherwise, the price center may shift downward. The long - term approach is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to have a weak - range adjustment, with the main reference range of 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market fundamentals are weak. The supply is in an over - capacity situation, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term supply - demand contradiction still exerts pressure on the market. It is expected to operate weakly, with the main reference range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [13]. Tin - In the short term, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the weak demand expectation, the strategy is to short on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term range. The strategy is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,580 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day. The price of other copper products also shows different degrees of increase or decrease [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,530 yuan/ton, down 0.05% from the previous day. Alumina prices in different regions also have different changes [2]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,200 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day [7]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 119,550 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,650 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous day [13]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 262,100 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,200 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12% month - on - month; imports were 25.31 million tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. - **Aluminum**: In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [2]. - **Zinc**: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08% month - on - month; imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [7]. - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; imports were 8832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [13]. - **Tin**: In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, up 36.39% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, down 2.37% month - on - month [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34% month - on - month; demand was 93,960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [16]. Inventory - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory was 12.96 million tons, down 12.25% week - on - week; bonded - area inventory was 6.43 million tons, up 7.71% week - on - week [1]. - **Aluminum**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 46.40 million tons, up 1.31% week - on - week; LME inventory was 33.8 million tons, down 0.59% day - on - day [2]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory was 7.78 million tons, down 0.38% week - on - week; LME inventory was 12.3 million tons, down 0.47% day - on - day [7]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory was 25,693 tons, up 0.30% week - on - week; LME inventory was 203,928 tons, down 0.11% day - on - day [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 53.42 million tons, up 0.64% week - on - week; SHFE warehouse receipts were 11.29 million tons, down 0.32% day - on - day [13]. - **Tin**: SHEF inventory (weekly) was 6965 tons, down 2.00% week - on - week; social inventory was 8845 tons, down 1.12% week - on - week [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Total lithium carbonate inventory in May was 97,637 tons, up 1.49% month - on - month [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **LLDPE & PP**: PE is expected to fluctuate, while PP is expected to trend downward in the short - term. PP's short - term production is at a high level due to the return of maintenance and smooth new production. PE's basis strengthens after the decline in the futures price, and the import volume in June decreased significantly with a slight increase expected in July. Both are affected by the off - season in demand [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand balance of styrene may gradually weaken. It is expected to continue to decline in the short - term due to increased supply, weak downstream demand, and geopolitical factors. It should be treated bearishly [7]. - **Urea**: In the short - term, attention should be paid to export progress, supply - side maintenance, and demand - side changes. It is advisable to consider going long at low prices based on the rebound logic driven by news, but strict stop - losses are required [11]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: For caustic soda, it is recommended to wait and see as it may face further inventory pressure after the return of maintenance devices. For PVC, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a medium - term short - selling strategy due to prominent supply - demand contradictions [39]. - **Methanol**: The market is affected by the easing of the Iranian situation, with a decline in the futures price and a strengthening basis. Attention should be paid to the actual shipping after the restart of Iranian devices. The inland supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season [49]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX, PTA, and other products are expected to fluctuate. For example, PX is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [52]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, lacking a strong trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and capture opportunities in option trading when volatility narrows [56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE & PP - **Price Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2509 prices increased slightly, while PP2601 decreased slightly. The basis and spreads of some varieties also changed [2]. - **Inventory &开工率**: PE enterprise and social inventories decreased, and the device and downstream weighted开工率 decreased slightly. PP enterprise and trader inventories decreased, the device开工率 increased, and the downstream weighted开工率 decreased slightly [2]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: The prices of styrene's upstream raw materials, spot, futures, and overseas quotes changed to varying degrees. The import profit decreased significantly [4][5][6]. - **开工率 & Profit**: The开工率 of domestic and Asian pure benzene, styrene, and some downstream products changed. The integrated profit of styrene decreased significantly, while the non - integrated profit increased [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene ports, styrene ports, and some downstream products changed [7]. Urea - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of urea contracts increased, and the spreads between contracts changed. The prices of upstream raw materials and spot in different regions also changed [11]. - **Position & Volume**: The long and short positions of the top 20 traders changed, and the trading volume increased [11]. - **Supply & Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea, the开工率 of production enterprises, and the inventory of urea all changed. The inventory of some enterprises decreased [11]. PVC & Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda's futures and spot changed slightly. The export profit of caustic soda increased, while that of PVC decreased [35][36]. - **Supply**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and the profit of different production methods changed [37]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of caustic soda's downstream industries and PVC's downstream products changed [38][39]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of methanol contracts increased, and the basis and regional spreads changed [49]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise, social, and port inventories of methanol changed [49]. - **开工率**: The upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [49]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream raw materials, polyester products, and their futures and cash flows changed. The spreads and processing fees of some products also changed [52]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of different links in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream products, changed [52]. Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil, as well as the prices and spreads of refined oil products, changed [56]. - **裂解价差**: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed [56]. - **Market Drivers**: Oil prices are driven by factors such as inventory changes, Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and geopolitical factors. The market is in a multi - empty stalemate [56].