Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market has rebounded and risen. In the short - term, with the positive performance of the commodity market, rubber is likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. The trading strategy is to hold long single - side positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: RU主力 increased by 195 to 15045, NR主力 rose by 195 to 12130, BR主力 went up by 70 to 10305, Tocom RSS3 (yen/kg) decreased by 0.7 to 310.1, and Sicom TF (cents/kg) remained unchanged at 168.0 [3]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: RU2605 - RU2601 decreased by 20 to 75, RU2609 - RU2605 increased by 10 to 65, NR主力 - 次主力 increased by 15 to 15, and BR主力 - 次主力 decreased by 170 to - 80 [3]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: RU - NR was 2915, RU - BR increased by 125 to 4740, NR - BR increased by 33, RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) was 100, and NR - Sicom TF ($) increased by 28 to 23 [3]. Raw Material Prices - In Thailand, the price of smoked sheet rubber was 58.30 (decreased by 0.7), the price of glue remained at 56.30. In Hainan, the price of glue for concentrated latex and whole - milk latex remained unchanged at 14200 and 13100 respectively. In Yunnan, the price of glue for concentrated latex decreased by 200 to 13700, and the price of rubber blocks for whole - milk latex decreased by 200 to 13600 [3]. Factory Costs and Profits - The concentrated latex production profit in Thailand increased by 15 to 500. The factory cost in Hainan remained unchanged at - 429. The gross profit of Thai smoked sheet rubber increased by 21, and the gross profit of Thai 20 - grade rubber increased by 21 to - 571 [3]. Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The price of old whole - milk latex decreased by 100 to 14350, the price of Vietnamese 3L decreased by 50 to 14950, the price of Thai mixed rubber decreased by 20 to 14380, etc. [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price of cis - butadiene BR9000 decreased by 100 to 10200, the price of styrene - butadiene SBR1502 decreased by 200 to 10600, and the price of styrene - butadiene SBR1712 decreased by 100 to 9700 [3]. - **Overseas Spot**: The price of Thai mixed rubber CIF decreased by 5 to 1775, the price of Malaysian mixed rubber CIF decreased by 5 to 1765, etc. [3]. Spreads in Spot and Futures - **RU Spreads**: RU - Thai mixed rubber decreased by 5 to 470, RU - old whole - milk latex increased by 75 to 500, RU - Vietnamese 3L increased by 25 to - 100 [3]. - **NR Spreads**: NR - Thai standard delivery profit decreased by 26 to - 863, NR - Indian standard delivery profit increased by 46 to - 364 [3]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spread between domestic standard - 2 and Thai mixed rubber increased by 20 to - 680, the spread between old whole - milk latex and Vietnamese 3L decreased by 50 to - 600 [3]. Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index remained unchanged at 100.1593, the US dollar/Chinese yuan decreased by 0.004 to 7.0865, the US dollar/Japanese yen remained unchanged at 154.1220, and the US dollar/Thai baht remained unchanged at 32.4775 [3]. Supply, Inventory and Demand - **Supply**: The price of raw material glue in Thailand was 56.30 baht/kg. The prices of glue in Hainan and Yunnan for different rubber types had certain changes [3]. - **Inventory**: As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 44.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.54 million tons or 3.57%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.58% to 6.83 million tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 4.36% to 37.94 million tons [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The northern market focuses on rigid demand. After some refineries in Shandong resumed asphalt production, the market supply remained abundant. Affected by the shipment pressure, refineries continuously lowered their quotes. In the North China region, although the suspension of large - scale asphalt plants in major refineries led to a contraction in supply, the sharp decline in the futures market dragged down the market. Traders continued price - cut promotions. With the impact of low - priced resources flowing into the Northeast, the resource circulation volume in the Northeast gradually decreased, and traders' price cuts led to a lower market average price. In the South China and East China regions, affected by the National Games, project construction was restricted, demand declined compared with the previous period. Coupled with the sharp decline in the futures market and fierce competition from surrounding low - priced resources, market sentiment weakened. Sinopec's refineries lowered asphalt prices by 50 - 150 yuan/ton today. Looking ahead, asphalt supply in Shandong will increase slightly, and prices may continue to fall under the background of continuous decline in demand. The North China region maintains rigid demand, resource supply decreases, market sentiment eases slightly, and prices are likely to stabilize. The demand in the southern market is flat, transactions are mostly concentrated in a small amount of low - priced resources, and prices will be cautiously stable [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Content 3.1 Asphalt Spot Market - In the spot market, the current prices in East China, North China, South China, Northeast, Northwest, and Shandong are 3380 yuan, 3150 yuan, 3310 yuan, 3550 yuan, 3980 yuan, and 3100 yuan respectively, with changes of - 20 yuan, - 30 yuan, - 60 yuan, 0 yuan, 0 yuan, and - 40 yuan compared with the previous values [1] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - In the futures market, for contracts BU2511, BU2512, BU2601, and BU2602, the current prices are 3106 yuan, 3118 yuan, 3109 yuan, and 3120 yuan respectively, with declines of - 1.37%, - 1.45%, - 1.80%, and - 2.04% compared with the previous values [1] 3.3 OPEC+ Oil Production Policy - OPEC+ eight countries' ministers decided to increase the oil production quota by 137,000 barrels per day in December. After December, due to seasonal factors, these 8 countries also decided to suspend production increases from January to March 2026. The agreement parties reiterated that the 1.65 million barrels per day production cut may be partially or fully restored depending on changing market conditions [2] 3.4 Venezuela - Related Situation - News media reported that the US planned to launch an air strike on Venezuela, but Trump publicly denied it. Trump's administration believes that a land strike lacks legal basis. A military build - up is visible, with an aircraft carrier and F - 35 fighters redeployed to the Caribbean [1][2]

Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on commodity options provided by ITC Guomao Futures, covering information on historical volatility, implied volatility, and price changes of various commodities [4][5]. Key Information 1. Price and Volatility of Commodities - **Metals**: For example, the price of Shanghai Aluminum was 21,630 with a 0.31% change and a daily volatility of 27.00%, and its historical volatilities (HV20, HV40, HV60, HV120) were 10%, 9%, 8%, 9% respectively; Shanghai Copper had a price of 86,320, a 0.04% change, a daily volatility of 21.55%, and historical volatilities of 18%, 19%, 16%, 13% [5]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Methanol had a price of 2,125, a 0.24% change, a daily volatility of 31.30%, and historical volatilities of 21%, 17%, 17%, 21%; Crude Oil had a price of 460.4, a -0.37% change, a daily volatility of 34.39%, and historical volatilities of 23%, 25%, 23%, 32% [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: Corn had a price of 2,154, a 0.75% change, a daily volatility of 21.05%, and historical volatilities of 10%, 10%, 13%, 11%; Soybean Meal had a price of 3,068, a 0.95% change, a daily volatility of 18.87%, and historical volatilities of 14%, 15%, 15%, 13% [5]. 2. Implied Volatility and Related Data - Different commodities have different implied volatilities and主力平值IV分位值. For example, the主力平值IV of Eggs was 30% with a 1.46%主力平值IV分位值; that of Polysilicon was 51% with a 13%主力平值IV分位值 [6]. 3. Historical Trends - The report presents the historical trends of some commodities such as Industrial Silicon, Iron Ore, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Rubber, and Crude Oil, including the relationship between the closing price, HV60, and主力平值隐波 [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market currently has both support and pressure. There is a continuous supply of new cotton, but yarn mills are actively restocking. In the long - term, policies and weather will be the key factors. The recommended strategies are to conduct reverse arbitrage on the January - May spread when prices are high and to lay out long positions for distant contracts when prices are low [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Data Domestic Cotton Futures - On November 6, CF01 was 13605, down 10 (-0.07%) from November 5; CF05 was 13615, down 5 (-0.04%); CF01 - 05 was -10, down 5 from the previous day [3]. Domestic Cotton Spot - On November 6, the prices in Xinjiang, Henan, and Shandong were 14618, 14852, and 14869 respectively, with decreases of -9 (-0.06%), -4 (-0.03%), and -4 (-0.03%) compared to November 5. The Xinjiang - main contract basis was 1013, up 1 [3]. Domestic Yarn Futures - On November 6, CY was 19870, up 50 (0.25%) from November 5 [3]. Domestic Yarn Spot - On November 6, the C32S price index was 20520, unchanged from November 5 [3]. US Cotton Spot - On November 6, CT (USD/磅) was unchanged at 65.07, the arrival price was 75.20, the 1% quota delivery price was 13158, and the sliding - duty delivery price was 14069, all unchanged from November 5 [3]. Spread Data - On November 6, the yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6265, up 60 from November 5; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 911, unchanged [3]. Other Data - The domestic - foreign spot spread was 1711 on November 6, down 4 from November 5 [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The domestic demand for urea is weak, and the supply remains high with few maintenance enterprises and less urea flow, leading to an increase in enterprise inventory. Although urea exports are advancing, the domestic supply - demand situation has not reversed, and the market still has a downward trend. The overall market is in a state of oscillation, with macro and cost factors being positive, while weak domestic demand is negative [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cost - The prices of coking coal, anthracite small pieces, and natural gas remained unchanged on November 6, 2025, compared to the previous day, at 465.00, 920.00, and 4130.00 respectively [1]. Price - On November 6, 2025, the prices in regions such as Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Shanxi remained unchanged, while Shandong increased by 10.00 to 1570.00. International prices including China FOB, Middle East FOB, Southeast Asia CFR, and Brazil CFR also remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory all remained unchanged on November 6, 2025, at 155.43, 11.00, and 14500.00 respectively [1]. Supply - On November 6, 2025, the daily output was 196,680.00, an increase of 7,920.00 from the previous day, and the overall start - up rate was 84.07%, an increase of 3.39 percentage points [1]. Demand - The start - up rates of compound fertilizer, melamine, formaldehyde, etc. remained unchanged on November 6, 2025 [1]. Profit - The profits of fixed - bed, coal - water slurry, and natural gas remained unchanged on November 6, 2025, at - 317.00, 104.00, and - 292.00 respectively [1]. Related Products - The price of liquid ammonia increased by 20.00 to 2050.00 on November 6, 2025, while the prices of compound fertilizer, melamine, and methanol were 2450.00, 5020.00, and 2015.00 respectively, with compound fertilizer remaining unchanged, and melamine remaining unchanged, and methanol increasing by 5.00 [1]. Futures - On November 6, 2025, the settlement price was 1640.00, a decrease of 8.00 from the previous day; the basis was - 74.00, a decrease of 11.00; the trading volume decreased by 6582.00 to 148,885.00, and the open interest increased by 2887.00 to 275,142.00 [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report On Thursday (November 6), most domestic commodities rose, with industrial products and agricultural products generally showing an upward trend. However, there were also some commodities with declines, such as shipping futures and non - metallic building materials [1]. 3) Summary by Related Categories Commodity Market Performance - **Overall Performance**: Most domestic commodity futures closed higher on Thursday. Black commodities led the gains, with coking coal rising 2.38%. Chemical products mostly increased, with butadiene rubber up 2.18%. Precious metals all rose, with silver futures gaining 1.99%. New energy materials mostly climbed, with lithium carbonate up 1.95%. Oilseeds and fats mostly advanced, with soybeans up 1.69%. Base metals mostly increased, with aluminum futures rising 1.31%. Agricultural and sideline products mostly rose, with eggs up 0.91%. Energy products were mixed, with LPG up 0.42%. Shipping futures led the declines, with the container shipping index (European line) down 3.91%. Non - metallic building materials all fell, with glass down 0.45% [1]. - **Index Performance**: The comprehensive Guomao Commodity Index rose 0.65% to 2151.74; the Guomao Industrial Products Index increased 0.58% to 1590.62; the Guomao Agricultural Products Index rose 0.45% to 1358.24; the black commodity index increased 0.45% to 1717.77; the Guomao Energy and Chemical Index rose 0.33% to 578.85; the Guomao Oilseeds and Fats Index increased 0.53% to 2135.25 [1]. Market Analysis of Different Commodity Categories - **Black Commodities**: The trading logic of the black chain has returned to the off - season fundamentals. Along with the rebound of the stock market and raw material prices, steel futures prices also rose slightly, but overall remained in a low - level oscillation pattern. The inventory of the five major steel products decreased to 1503.57 tons this week, with the decline narrowing to 0.67%, but a 23.37% increase compared to the same period last year. Production decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, and apparent demand also dropped by 2.89% to 869,100 tons, reaching the lowest level in the same period in recent years. In general, the short - term macro - expectations have less influence, and the market sentiment is weak due to weak real - estate data and the cooling weather [1]. - **Base Metals**: For copper, the rebound of Shanghai copper was due to the improved macro - sentiment released by the stock - market rebound, and its medium - term upward trend remained unchanged, with the strength of the market depending on the recovery of positions. Regarding lithium carbonate, although there were rumors of accelerated resumption of production in Jiangxi lithium mines, which have not been officially confirmed, the market did not form a consensus on the future. After the impact of the news faded, lithium carbonate stabilized and rebounded, recovering previous losses. Future attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of the supply side and whether the fundamentals continue to destock [1]. - **Energy and Chemical Products**: The main contract of SC crude oil declined slightly for the third consecutive day on Thursday. In the future, the short - term market's sensitivity to geopolitics has slightly decreased, the macro - situation is temporarily stable, and international oil prices are dominated by fundamentals. This week, ELA inventories entered the seasonal accumulation period, and WTI oil prices fell below the $60 support. Due to the remaining supply surplus this year and no substantial improvement in the near - term fundamentals, oil prices are expected to remain under pressure this year [1]. - **Oilseeds and Fats**: The relaxation of US soybean tariffs provided positive support to the market. However, according to the calculation, the import cost of US soybeans is still higher than that of Brazilian soybeans. The increase in US soybean import costs drove the continued strength of double - meal futures. Future attention should be paid to China's actual procurement of US soybeans. The three major oils rebounded and closed higher. The short - covering of palm oil and rapeseed oil drove the price rebound. The market expects that the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in the MPOB October supply - demand report may continue to increase. However, the improvement in palm oil export demand and the entry into the seasonal production - reduction season in November provide support for the price. In the short term, the driving force in the oil market is limited, and the market is waiting for the MPOB report and changes in the biodiesel policy [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Palm oil is dominated by oversupply pressure and performs the weakest, soybean oil oscillates between cost support and inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil is relatively strong but its rebound space is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Category Spot Price - **24 - degree palm oil**: On November 6, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8760, 8600, and 8540 respectively, with a decrease of 10 compared to November 5. The spot - basis of palm oil futures (South China) was 5000, 4000, and 3000 in these regions [1]. - **First - grade soybean oil**: On November 6, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8320, 8390, and 8490 respectively, with an increase of 10 compared to November 5 [1]. - **Fourth - grade rapeseed oil**: On November 6, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9780, 9830, and 10100 respectively, with an increase of 30 compared to November 5. The spot - basis of rapeseed oil futures (East China) was 3000 [1][2]. Futures Data - **Price difference between soybean and palm oil futures contracts**: On November 6, 2025, it was - 544, a decrease of 92 compared to November 5 [1]. - **Price difference between rapeseed and soybean oil futures contracts**: On November 6, 2025, it was 1376, a decrease of 107 compared to November 5 [1]. - **Warehouse receipts**: On November 6, 2025, the palm oil warehouse receipts were 650 (unchanged), soybean oil warehouse receipts were 26460 (a decrease of 984), and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 5112 (a decrease of 1726) compared to November 5 [1]. Industry News - **Palm oil supply**: Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to reach 56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October is expected to reach 2.44 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%, and the production is expected to be 1.94 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.6%. As of October 29, China's palm oil commercial inventory was 639,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.06% [2]. - **Soybean news**: Brazil's Supreme Court confirmed the validity of the soybean environmental protection agreement. StoneX lowered the 2025 US soybean yield to 53.6 bushels per acre. Brazil's soybean sowing progress was 47.1% on November 2 [2]. - **Rapeseed oil import**: The rapeseed oil import volume in November is expected to be 226,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.3%, due to the concentrated arrival of new - season rapeseed oil from Russia [2].

原油&燃料油数据日报 ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 能源化工研究中心 叶海文 从业资格证号: F3071622 投资咨询证号: Z0014205 数据来源: Wind 钢联数据库 | 国际油价震荡表现。当前地缘局势以及宏观驱动逐步减弱,油价暂时重回 | 基本面驱动逻辑。原油自身供需来仍处于宽松格局,供给端方面,在11月0PEC+ | 会议上,OPEC+计划在12月小幅增产13.7万桶/日,这是连续第三个月实施该增 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 幅,该决策旨在恢复市场份额，但可能加剧市场供应过剩担忧。此外在12月之 | 后,OPEC+还决定在2026年1月、2月和3月暂停增产。需求端方面,9月开始原油 | 原油 | 消费量逐渐下滑,其中美国原油消费旺季结束的标志是9月初的劳工节,全球原 | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The report is prepared by the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute, with Yang Lulin as the researcher, on November 7, 2025 [2] Group 2 - On November 6, 2025, the price of 0P2601 was 4276, a day-on-day decrease of -0.28% compared to November 5; the main contract position was 949, a day-on-day decrease of -1.86% [3] Group 3 - As of November 6, 2025, the daily and weekly price changes of various brands of double-offset paper and coated paper were 0.00% [3] Group 4 - As of November 6, 2025, the daily and weekly price changes of various types of papermaking raw materials were 0.00% [4] Group 5 - From September 12, 2025, to October 31, 2025, the double-offset paper production showed fluctuations in output, capacity utilization, factory inventory, and social inventory, and the production profits with chemimechanical pulp and hardwood pulp as the main raw materials also varied [4] Group 6 - The calculation methods of double-offset paper production profits with chemimechanical pulp and hardwood pulp as the main raw materials are provided [5] Group 7 - Recently, the fundamentals of the double-offset paper market have remained stable, with a slight increase in weekly output and inventory. Some paper mills have issued price increase letters, and it is recommended to consider shorting at high prices [5]