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白糖数据日报-20250912
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 11:22
Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Sugar Data Daily [3] - Report date: September 12, 2025 [4] - Analyst: Xie Wei, with futures qualification number F03087820 and investment consulting number Z0019508 [4] Group 2: Domestic Sugar Price Data - On September 11, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 5970 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 440 yuan/ton against SR09, down 5 yuan/ton [4] - The spot price in Kunming was 5850 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of 420 yuan/ton against SR09, up 10 yuan/ton [4] - The spot price in Dali was 5715 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of 325 yuan/ton against SR09, up 10 yuan/ton [4] - The spot price in Rizhao, Shandong was 6030 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 400 yuan/ton against SR09, down 5 yuan/ton [4] - The price of SR09 was 5530 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the price of SR01 was 5556 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton; SR09 - 01 was -26, down 16 [4] Group 3: International Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1364, down 0.0105; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - The price of the ICE raw sugar main contract was 15.89, unchanged; the price of the London white sugar main contract was 573, up 3; the price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 67.6, unchanged [4] Group 4: Core View - During the new crushing season alternation period, the supply is diversified, the game between processed sugar and domestic sugar intensifies, and it is expected to maintain range - bound trading [4] - If Brazil's production exceeds expectations or India relaxes exports, raw sugar may test the previous low again [4]
国贸期货日度策略参考-20250912
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 06:38
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Aluminum, Polycrystalline Silicon, Stainless Steel, Iron Ore (long - term), Palm Oil (long - term), Rapeseed Oil (long - term), MO1, Calcium Carbide, PG (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Lithium Carbonate, Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) (short - term), Ethylene Glycol, Benzene, Styrene, CP (short - term) [1] - **Neutral**: Copper, Zinc, Nickel, Tin, Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Coke, Sugar, Corn (C01), Pulp, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Short - Fiber, Natural Gas, Propylene, PVC, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2) Core Views - Short - term stock index futures' discount has widened again, and with liquidity drive, short - term index adjustments may bring long - position layout opportunities [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1] - The expected Fed rate cut in September supports gold prices, and gold may run strongly at high levels in the short term [1] - Weak US non - farm data has led to recession concerns, but the expected Fed rate cut limits the downside of copper prices [1] - With the approaching consumption peak season and the expected Fed rate cut, aluminum prices are expected to run strongly [1] - The supply and demand fundamentals of various commodities are complex, affected by factors such as production capacity changes, inventory levels, and macro - economic policies [1] 3) Summary by Variety Macro - Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term adjustments may offer long - position opportunities due to widened discount and liquidity drive [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central bank warns of interest - rate risks [1] - **Gold**: Supported by expected Fed rate cut in September, may run strongly at high levels short - term [1] - **Silver**: May run strongly at high levels short - term, beware of increased volatility [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Weak US non - farm data pressures prices, but expected Fed rate cut limits downside [1] - **Aluminum**: Expected to run strongly with approaching consumption peak season and expected Fed rate cut [1] - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals due to increased production and inventory, consider long - position in far - month contracts [1] - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures prices, but LME inventory decline and macro - support limit downside [1] - **Nickel**: Follows macro - trends and may run strongly short - term, mid - long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Raw material support strengthens, futures may fluctuate strongly short - term [1] - **Tin**: Overall supported, look for low - long opportunities [1] - **Silicon**: May fluctuate due to supply resumption and potential policy changes [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Expected to rise due to capacity reduction and low terminal demand [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Expected to decline due to expected mine复产 and limited subsequent replenishment space [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: Valuation returns to neutral, industry drive is unclear, macro - drive is positive [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, valuation neutral, industry drive unclear, macro - drive positive [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month limited by production restrictions, far - month has upward potential [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term回调 risk, long - term bullish, wait for callback to go long [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Domestic inventory may pressure the market, but bullish in Q4, look for callback to go long [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread strategy due to trade - flow possibilities [1] - **Cotton**: New cotton supply may be tight short - term, acquisition game is a focus [1] - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate weakly, short - term downside limited [1] - **Corn**: New crop expected to be abundant, C01 suggest shorting at high prices [1] - **MO1**: In an upward channel, affected by USDA report, short - term fluctuate, buy at low prices [1] - **Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread due to price changes and inventory adjustments [1] - **Log**: Fundamentals unchanged, futures may fluctuate weakly [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical situation, OPEC+ policy, and expected Fed rate cut [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, affected by multiple factors [1] - **BR Rubber**: Follow crude oil, pay attention to inventory and device maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Production increases, downstream profit recovers, affected by OPEC+ policy [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Expected to decline due to device投产 and increased hedging [1] - **Short - Fiber**: Factory devices resume, market delivery willingness weakens [1] - **Benzene and Styrene**: Supply increases, inventory accumulates, domestic import pressure rises [1] - **Natural Gas**: Limited upside due to weak domestic demand, supported by cost [1] - **Propylene**: Price fluctuates weakly due to macro - environment and demand [1] - **PVC**: Fluctuates due to supply pressure and inventory situation [1] - **Calcium Carbide**: Expected to rise due to approaching peak season and low inventory [1] - **PG**: International oil price supports, but fundamental factors limit upside [1] Others - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Supply exceeds the same - period level, freight rate may decline [1]
日度策略参考-20250912
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 02:50
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Zinc, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Ethanol, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, PP, Alumina [1] - **Bearish**: Iron Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Soda Ash, Black Metal, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping Routes [1] - **Sideways**: Treasury Bonds, Silver, Alumina, Stainless Steel, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Paper Pulp, Live Pigs, Natural Rubber, PE, PP, PVC, PG [1] Core Views of the Report - Short - term stock index futures' discount has widened again, and with liquidity drive, short - term index adjustments may bring long - position layout opportunities. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning suppresses the upside. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, providing support for gold prices. [1] - For base metals, the US CPI inflation data basically meets expectations, increasing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The approaching consumption peak season may drive up copper and aluminum prices. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but there is still pressure from long - term primary nickel oversupply. [1] - In the black metal sector, the supply - demand situation is not optimistic in the short - term, with supply recovering and demand at risk of weakening, and high inventory levels. The steel market is under pressure due to supply surplus. [1] - In the agricultural products sector, the market situation varies. For example, palm oil has short - term callback risks but long - term upward logic. Cotton has short - term supply tightness, while sugar is expected to be in a weak - sideway trend. [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, the overall situation is affected by factors such as production increases, cost support, and demand changes. For example, crude oil's fundamental situation is loose, and PTA's production has recovered. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term discount widening and liquidity drive may offer long - position opportunities during short - term index adjustments [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning suppresses upside [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Fed's expected September interest - rate cut provides support, short - term high - level strong operation with attention to volatility risks [1] - **Silver**: Short - term high - level strong operation [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US inflation data and approaching consumption peak season may drive up prices [1] - **Aluminum**: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and consumption peak season may lead to a strong trend [1] - **Alumina**: Production and inventory are increasing, but price is near the cost line with limited downward space [1] - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures the price, but LME inventory decline and macro support limit the downside [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - driven strong oscillation, long - term primary nickel oversupply pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Raw - material support exists, short - term sideway operation [1] - **Tin**: Overall support exists, pay attention to low - long opportunities [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial drive is unclear, and macro drive is positive [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward adjustment opportunities [1] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term supply - demand is not optimistic, with high inventory [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Supply - demand is weak, price is under pressure [1] - **Soda Ash**: Supply surplus pressure is large, price is under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term callback risk, long - term upward logic [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic inventory increase may pressure the price, but long - term upward logic remains [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term supply tightness, new - cotton acquisition game is the focus [1] - **Sugar**: Expected to be in a weak - sideway trend, short - term downward space is limited [1] - **Corn**: New - grain harvest may bring selling pressure, C01 is expected to decline [1] - **Soybean Meal**: MO1 has limited downward space, short - term sideway adjustment, consider low - long [1] - **Paper Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread [1] - **Logs**: Fundamental situation is stable, price is in a weak - sideway trend [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tension, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectation affect the price [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar influencing factors as crude oil [1] - **Natural Rubber**: Raw - material cost support, slow inventory removal, and negative market sentiment [1] - **BR Rubber**: Follow crude oil, pay attention to inventory removal and device maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Production recovery, downstream profit improvement [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Basis strengthening, new device production pressure [1] - **Short - Fiber**: Device return, weakening delivery willingness [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Inventory accumulation, supply increase, import pressure [1] - **PE**: Macro - positive, more maintenance, weak - sideway price [1] - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, sideway - weak trend [1] - **PVC**: Return to fundamentals, supply pressure, sideway - weak trend [1] - **Alumina**: Approaching peak season, low inventory, price rebound [1] - **LPG**: Crude oil production increase, fundamental pressure, downstream profit deterioration [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping Routes**: September supply exceeds the same - period level, freight rate decline is faster than expected [1]
股指期权数据日报-20250911
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 12:33
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 股指期权数据日报 投资咨询号:Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2025/9/11 金融衍生品中心 李泽矩 从业资格号:F0251925 数据米源: Wind,因资期货研究 Time to Matutity 行情回顾 成交量(亿) 收盘价 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(亿元) 指数 2939. 5911 0. 37 1338. 02 56. 40 上证50 203. 60 4445. 3649 0. 21 5355. 39 沪深300 252. 67 中证1000 7230. 1678 0. 06 3961. 05 中金所股指期权成交情况 持仓量 期权成交量 认购期权 认洁期权 期权持企量 认购期权 日成交量 认洁期权 指数 持仓量 持仓量 (万张) 成交量 成交量 PCR (万张) PCR 上证50 2. 54 5.72 3. 84 1. 30 3.69 0. 65 0. 51 9. 41 7. 43 沪深300 22. 93 11. 94 4. 51 0. 61 12. 65 10. 28 0. 81 中证1000 30. 11 16. 60 13. 51 35. 2 ...
航运衍生品数据日报-20250911
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 11:13
Report Overview - Report Title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] - Date: September 11, 2025 [5] - Researcher: Lu Zhaoyi from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the shipping market is complex, with different trends in different routes and contracts. The EC market shows a volatile trend, and the spot freight rates have not stopped falling. It is recommended to short at high levels in October and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [8][9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI)**: The current value is 1444, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous value of 1445 [5] - **China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI)**: The current value is 1149, a decrease of 0.62% from the previous value of 1156 [5] - **SCFI - US West**: The current value is 2189, an increase of 13.83% from the previous value of 1923 [5] - **SCFIS - US West**: The current value is 980, a decrease of 3.26% from the previous value of 1013 [5] - **SCFI - US East**: The current value is 3073, an increase of 7.22% from the previous value of 2866 [5] - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1315, a decrease of 11.21% from the previous value of 1481 [5] - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1566, a decrease of 11.68% from the previous value of 1773 [5] - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: The current value is 1971, a decrease of 8.11% from the previous value of 2145 [5] Shipping Derivative Contracts - **Contract Prices**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., the price changes range from -0.85% to 0.66% [5] - **Contract Positions**: For positions such as EC2606, EC2608, etc., the changes range from 17 to 729 [5] - **Monthly Spreads**: The current values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads are -406.6, 150.0, and 428.0 respectively, with changes of 7.6, -5.5, and 1.8 [5] Market News - **Trade Focus Shift**: Tariffs are accelerating the shift of China's trade focus, with Southeast Asia and Africa becoming the main growth points. From January to July 2025, the direct - call voyages from China to Vietnam increased by 22% year - on - year, and the monthly number exceeded 300 since March [6] - **Trade Negotiation Strategy**: Beijing has adopted a new stance in Sino - US trade negotiations, maintaining dialogue but making few concessions, resulting in a subtle "easing" but no substantial trade agreement in the short term [6] - **Trans - Pacific Demand**: The suspension of services by Premier Alliance indicates a decline in trans - Pacific demand, and the number of empty voyages on the US East Coast increased in the first week of September [6] - **India - Europe Route**: The freight rates on the India - Europe route have been lowered due to the normalization of capacity and the lack of obvious peak - season demand. Freight forwarders expect further declines in September, with rates per TEU possibly dropping to $1,100 - $1,200 [6] - **Tariff Ruling**: The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals (CAFC) ruled that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing "fentanyl tariffs" and "reciprocal tariffs" under the IEEPA, but the ruling is suspended until October 14, 2025. The government has appealed to the Supreme Court [6][7] Container Freight Prices - **GBMINI**: The overall average of the alliance is 1800. Maersk's wk38 opening price is 1700; HPL - QQ is 1900 in September, and HPL - SPOT is 1550 [9] - **O1**: The overall average of the alliance is 1950; CMA is 2000, and OOCL is 1900 [9] - **PA**: The overall average of the alliance is 1800. ONE is 2100, and HMM is 1700 - 1900 [9] - **MSC**: The reported price in September is 2050 [9] - **Logic**: Maersk's wk39 opening price is 1550, a decrease of 150 from the previous week. OCC1 has dropped to 1600, and there may be further price drops in September. As market optimism fades and attention refocuses on spot quotes, spot freight rates have not stopped falling. Pre - holiday stockpiling before October 1st may lead to price competition in the second half of September, and the transfer of some US - bound ships to European routes increases supply and further pressures freight rates [9] Strategy - Short at high levels in October and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [10]
蛋白数据日报-20250911
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 11:12
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/9/11 | 指标 | | 9月10日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) ==== 19/20 | ----- 20/21 | | ===== 21/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 天津 | 14 -26 | -11 | 1600 1200 | こここー・18/19 ----- 22/23 | == | - 24/25 | | - 25/26 | | | | | | 800 | | | | | | | | 日照 | -86 | -11 | 400 | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 张家港 | -36 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 400 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 04/24 | 05/25 06/25 | 07/26 08/26 ...
黑色金属数据日报-20250911
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 09:53
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The steel market's supply and demand may shift from weak to strong as the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches. The focus in the next two weeks is to observe the steel's apparent demand, and the futures price valuation is neutral [2]. - The short - term trading style of the double - silicon market changes rapidly, following the black sector. Fundamentally, the industry's profit has recovered, supply is increasing, and demand may be under pressure, with high inventory and de - stocking pressure [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is oscillating. Although the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, the downside of the futures market may be limited. There are opportunities for mid - line low - position long - position layout [5]. - Guinea's policy affects the market's expectation of iron ore supply increment. The short - term upward breakthrough of iron ore prices allows early low - position long - positions to take profit. The 01 - contract iron ore still has support below [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - On September 10, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, etc. and their changes were presented. The current futures price valuation is neutral, and the basis is briefly favorable for end - users' buying hedging. The market is waiting for the performance of this week's apparent demand [1][2]. - The trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and close the cash - and - carry arbitrage [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - The short - term market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the double - silicon market follows the black sector. The industry's profit has recovered, supply is increasing, and terminal demand may be difficult to improve significantly, with high inventory and de - stocking pressure [3]. - Industrial customers are advised to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - On September 10, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of coking coal and coke and their changes were shown. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, but the futures market's previous low may have priced in 2 - 3 rounds of cuts. The downside may be limited. Mid - line investors can consider low - position long - position layout based on last week's low [1][5][7]. Iron Ore - Guinea's policy affects the market's expectation of iron ore supply increment. The iron ore price has broken through upward, and early low - position long - positions can take profit. In September, there is support from the demand side due to pre - holiday restocking. The 01 - contract iron ore still has support below [6]. - The trading strategy is to continue the low - position long - position idea [7].
瓶片短纤数据日报-20250911
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 09:49
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ plans to increase production, leading to a significant drop in crude oil prices. Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming operations, resulting in a rise in PTA production and a rapid decline in PTA basis. The spread between PX and naphtha remains stable. With the recent improvement in sales and inventory reduction, especially the significant reduction in filament inventory, downstream profits have been significantly restored, and the operating load of polyester has rebounded to 91%. However, due to the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of the basis, PTA has shown weak performance [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4605 to 4625, a change of 20.00; PTA closing price rose from 4678 to 4698, a change of 20.00 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 4454 to 4439, a change of -15.00; MEG closing price dropped from 4322 to 4319, a change of -3.00 [2] - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6535 to 6540, a change of 5.00; short fiber basis decreased from 82 to 65, a change of -17.00 [2] - 10 - 11 spread decreased from 17 to 14, a change of -3.00; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6.00 [2] - 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5700; the price difference between 1.4D direct-spun and imitation large chemical fiber increased from 835 to 840, a change of 5.00 [2] - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5868 to 5856, a change of -9.00; hot-filled polyester bottle chip price dropped from 5887 to 5859, a change of -28.00 [2] - Carbonated polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5987 to 6966, a change of -28.00; foreign water bottle chip price increased from 765 to 766, a change of 1.00 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 439 to 418, a change of -21.08; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3765 to 3760, a change of -5.00; polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2] - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14980 to 14955, a change of -25.00; polyester-cotton yarn profit increased from 1305 to 1311, a change of 6.13 [2] - Virgin three-dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7110; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 481 to 469, a change of -12.08 [2] - Virgin low-melting staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7450 [2] Load and Production and Sales - Direct-spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 90.60% to 91.10%, a change of 0.01 [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 45.00% to 54.00%, a change of 9.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 62.00% to 62.80%, a change of 0.01 [3] - Recycled cotton-type load index (weekly) increased from 49.00% to 49.50%, a change of 0.01 [3]
聚酯数据日报-20250911
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 09:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PTA market is affected by a small increase in crude oil prices, but the ample PTA spot and poor promotion results of downstream polyester filament lead to a slight weakening of the PTA spot basis. The domestic PTA production is rising as domestic PTA plants gradually resume operation, and the PTA basis is dropping rapidly. OPEC+ will increase oil production again at the Sunday meeting. The downstream profits are significantly repaired, and the operating load of polyester has rebounded to 91%. - The ethylene glycol (MEG) basis is weakening, and the upcoming commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's MEG plant exerts pressure on the futures market. The arrival of overseas MEG plants has decreased, but the hedging volume has increased after the price recovery. The polyester inventory is in good condition, and the operating load of downstream weaving has increased [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Comparison - **INE Crude Oil and PTA-SC**: On September 9th, INE crude oil was 482.8 yuan/barrel, and PTA - SC was 1169.4 yuan/ton. On September 10th, INE crude oil rose to 486.2 yuan/barrel, and PTA - SC dropped to 1164.7 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3333 to 1.3296 [2] - **CFR China PX and Related Indicators**: CFR China PX increased from 836 to 838, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 242 to 241 [2] - **PTA Indicators**: The PTA主力期价 rose from 4678 yuan/ton to 4698 yuan/ton, the PTA现货价格 increased from 4605 to 4625, the 现货加工费 rose from 123.4 yuan/ton to 134.3 yuan/ton, and the 盘面加工费 increased from 196.4 yuan/ton to 202.3 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 decreased from 19877 to 11842 [2] - **MEG Indicators**: The MEG主力期价 decreased from 4322 yuan/ton to 4319 yuan/ton, the MEG内盘 dropped from 4454 to 4439, and the MEG - naphtha spread increased from (111.77) to (110.96). The MEG主力基差 decreased from 136 to 118 [2] - **Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The PX开工率 remained at 82.59%, the PTA开工率 remained at 78.25%, the MEG开工率 remained at 60.74%, and the 聚酯负荷 increased slightly from 88.16% to 88.25% [2] - **Polyester Filament and Fiber Data**: For polyester filament, POY150D/48F decreased from 6805 to 6725, FDY150D/96F decreased from 7090 to 7025, and DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 8015. The 长丝产销 increased from 44% to 69%. For polyester short - fiber, 1.4D直纺涤短 remained at 6540, and the 短纤产销 increased from 44% to 55%. For polyester chips, the 半光切片 increased from 5755 to 5770, and the 切片产销 increased from 146% to 198% [2] 3.2 Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China restarted last weekend after shutting down for maintenance around August 26 [2]
宏观金融数据日报-20250911
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 09:48
Report Summary 1. Market Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index closed up with reduced volatility and shrinking trading volume. There is still upward potential for the stock index due to abundant domestic liquidity, high expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, and the potential marginal repair of PPI, which could improve A-share profitability. The strategy is to go long opportunistically and take advantage of the premium/discount of stock index futures to place long orders [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Money Market - DRO01 closed at 1.43 with a 1.12bp increase, DR007 at 1.48 with a -0.26bp decrease, GC001 at 1.54 with a -5.50bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.49 with a -3.50bp decrease. SHBOR 3M was at 1.55 with a 0.20bp increase, and LPR 5-year remained unchanged at 3.50 [4]. - The 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.41, 1.65, and 1.89 respectively, with increases of 1.56bp, 2.06bp, and 2.52bp. The 10-year US treasury bond closed at 4.08 with a 3.00bp increase [4]. - The central bank conducted 3040 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with 2291 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 749 billion yuan. This week, 10684 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and the central bank may restart treasury bond trading operations [4]. Stock Index Market - The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed at 4445, 2940, 6932, and 7230 respectively, with increases of 0.21%, 0.37%, 0.05%, and 0.06%. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with the trading volume of the two markets at 19781 billion yuan, a decrease of 1404 billion yuan [5]. - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different price changes and volume/position changes. For example, IF volume increased by 7.4% to 130680, and its position increased by 2.7% to 275475 [5]. Futures Premium/Discount - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different delivery months have different premium/discount rates. For example, the IF current-month contract has a premium rate of 11.83% [7].