Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock" rating for pulp investment, expecting it to fluctuate between 5100 - 5400 this week [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pulp has returned to fundamental pricing due to the cooling of macro - sentiment. The current supply is increasing, demand is in a weak off - season, inventory shows a slight downward trend, trade profit has decreased, and it has entered a low - valuation state with limited further decline space [3][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. In May 2025, the inventory days of world 20 - country commodity pulp suppliers increased, and the total shipment volume increased month - on - month. The shipments of broadleaf pulp from three South American countries and coniferous pulp from Canada to China increased. The current coniferous pulp quotes in North America/Northern Europe are 680 - 710 US dollars per ton, and the import quote for broadleaf pulp is 500 US dollars per ton [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. This week, the production of major finished paper remained basically stable, and the prices of mainstream finished paper continued to decline, with the off - season atmosphere unchanged [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 210.5 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 1.8% [3] - **Trade Profit**: It is neutral. After the sharp decline in pulp prices this week, the import profit decreased. As of August 1, the import profit of coniferous pulp was - 16.9 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 76 yuan per ton [3] - **Valuation**: It is strong. After the sharp decline in pulp futures this week, the basis of broadleaf pulp strengthened to around - 1000 yuan per ton, returning to a low - valuation state [3] - **Investment View**: It is expected to be in a shock state. Pulp has returned to the low - valuation range, and the further decline space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate between 5100 - 5400 this week [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. There is no clear arbitrage strategy. Attention should be paid to commodity macro - sentiment [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: Last week, pulp prices dropped significantly due to the decline in macro - sentiment, while spot prices remained basically stable. The spread between broadleaf pulp is now around - 1000 yuan per ton, in a low - valuation state with limited further decline space [7] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of pulp decreased slightly. The price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan per ton and a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan per ton. The price of coniferous pulp Buzhen was 5100 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 400 yuan per ton and a month - on - month increase of 180 yuan per ton. The price of broadleaf pulp Jinyu was 4100 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan per ton and a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan per ton [16] - **External Quotes**: In May, the external quotes of coniferous pulp dropped significantly, and the price of broadleaf pulp declined. In July, the price of broadleaf pulp from Chile Arauco was 500 US dollars per ton net, and the offer price of natural pulp Venus was 590 US dollars per ton [18][21] - **Disk Position**: The total position of pulp futures was stable, while the position of the 09 contract dropped significantly. As of August 1, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts was 280946 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 8.00%; the position of the main pulp futures contract was 99233 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 32.76% [22][24] Part Three: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June, the pulp import volume increased. The total pulp import volume was 30160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.25%. The import volume of coniferous pulp was 7220 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%, and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 12930 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84% [5] - **Shipment Volume**: In May 2025, the W20 pulp shipment volume was 4.125 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. Among them, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp was 1.68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.4%, and the shipment volume of broadleaf pulp was 2.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2% [41] - **Inventory**: The port and futures inventories decreased. As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 210.5 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 1.8%. Overseas/European pulp mill inventories increased [3][47] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Price**: As of August 1, 2025, the prices of four major wood - pulp papers were declining. The price of offset paper was 4994 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.56%; the price of coated paper was 5320 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.48%; the price of household paper was 5583 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.47%; the price of white cardboard was 3900 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.85% [53] - **Production**: In June 2025, the production of cultural paper decreased, while that of household paper and white cardboard increased. The production of offset paper was 68.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 16%; the production of coated paper was 36.62 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the production of household paper increased by 2% month - on - month and 11.2% year - on - year; the production of white cardboard increased by 2% month - on - month and 10.6% year - on - year [59] - **Inventory**: As of June 2025, the inventories of finished paper increased. The inventory of offset paper was 183 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3%; the inventory of coated paper was 123 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.7%; the inventory of household paper was 40 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.1% and a year - on - year increase of 16.9%; the inventory of white cardboard was 219.14 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.2% [66] - **Overseas Demand**: In June 2025, European pulp demand declined, and US demand weakened. The available days of European coniferous pulp inventory were 28.5, a month - on - month increase of 0.81 and a year - on - year increase of 4.47; the available days of broadleaf pulp inventory were 26.7, a month - on - month increase of 3.94 and a year - on - year increase of 5.04. As of June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 81.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. In May 2025, the inventory - to - sales ratio of paper products was 1.05, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a year - on - year increase of 0.06 [72] Part Four: Pulp Futures Valuation - **Spread**: As of August 1, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian coniferous pulp was - 86 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan per ton; the basis of Shandong Silver Star was 664 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 264 yuan per ton. The 9 - 1 month spread of pulp was - 238 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 186 yuan per ton [79] - **Import Profit**: As of August 1, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp was - 17 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 76 yuan per ton; the import profit of broadleaf pulp was 30 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 34 yuan per ton [82] - **Needle - Broadleaf Spread**: As of August 1, 2025, the needle - broadleaf spread in Shandong, China was 1797 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 110 yuan per ton. In June 2024, the needle - broadleaf import ratio in China was 0.47, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - PVC main weekly data summary includes price, production, inventory, and other aspects. For example, the latest PVC main price is 5015 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.66% from last week; the social inventory is 44.80 tons, an increase of 4.92% from last week [4]. PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - PVC price ranges are 4840 - 4970, 4650 - 4750, 4870 - 5080, etc. [6]. PART THREE: PVC Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Multiple charts show historical data trends of PVC - related indicators such as price differences, production, inventory, and utilization rates from 2019 - 2025 [17][19][21].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-8-4 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：等待宏观企稳，走势或有分化 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 棕榈油观望； 豆油偏空； 菜油偏多 | （1）马来棕榈油7月高频数据显现增产但印尼5月减产去库对价格有支撑；（2）豆油供应充足；（3）菜籽库存历史低位，短期压榨偏少。 | | | | 需求 | 棕榈油菜油 偏多 | （1）印尼棕榈油出口大增、马来出口减弱；（2）美生柴配额提振国际油脂需求，主要利多棕榈油、菜油。 | | | | 库存 | 菜油棕榈油 中性偏空； 豆油偏空 | （1）国内棕榈油逐渐累库；（2）豆油库存被动累库；（3）国内菜油库存高位去化。 | | | | 宏观及政策 | 棕榈油偏多； 菜油中性偏 空。 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【尿素周报（UR)】 宏观情绪降温，行情回归基本面 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-08-04 陈一凡 从业资格证号：F3054270 投资咨询证号：Z0015946 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 尿素:宏观情绪降温，行情回归基本面 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）产量：尿素产量135.48万吨，较上周增加0.01吨，环比涨0.01%；周均日产19.35万吨，较上周基本持平。周期内宁夏、安徽、河北等省产量有一定增 加，产量有减少的省份是河南、内蒙古、山西等。2、开工率：尿素产能利用率83.60%，环比涨0.01%。周期内环比开工上涨的省份在宁夏、甘肃、河北、 | | | | 安徽等，环比开工下降的省份在河南、内蒙古、山西等。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | （1）山东临沂复合肥样本生产企业尿素需求量1130吨，较上周增加310吨，环比涨37.80%。短时复合肥开工小幅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", and the trading strategy involves a unilateral "oscillating" approach with a 12 - 4 positive spread arbitrage position held [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rate of the container shipping index shows signs of peaking, and the overall market is weak. Spot prices have peaked, with quotes in early August starting to decline, which will lead to a synchronous decline in late August. The main focus of the 10 - contract lies in the decline slope of the freight rate from August to October [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rates**: Spot prices have peaked, with quotes in early August starting to weaken, pulling down those in late August. For example, GEMINI's Maersk wk33 opening price rose from 2800 to 2900, while HPL dropped to 3150 in early August. OA's early - August average quote was 3300, and PA continued to cut prices to 3100 with a downward trend [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: These factors are considered neutral. There are various political events such as the potential extension of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US, new US tariffs on copper products, and changes in the US - Gaza policy [3] - **Capacity Supply**: It is neutral. Weekly average capacity deployment is 290,000 in July, 300,000 in August, and 320,000 in September. New ships were delivered in early July, and some shipping companies adjusted their routes, redirecting capacity to the European line. European port congestion persists due to labor shortages, strikes, low river water levels, and increased Red Sea route risks. MSK added an extra 15,780 - TEU vessel in wk32 and plans to send another about 13,000 - TEU vessel in wk34. Six blank sailings have been announced in August by the Ocean Alliance [3] - **Demand**: It is neutral. Demand and loading rates were good at the end of July, but the high capacity deployment at the beginning of August weakened the effect of the inventory - building rolling pool [3] - **Market**: Spot prices show signs of peaking. It is expected that spot prices will peak at the end of July and beginning of August, decline slowly until late August, and then the decline slope will intensify. The 10 - contract's main focus is on the decline slope of the freight rate from August to October [3] - **Investment View and Trading Strategy**: The investment view is "oscillating". The trading strategy includes a unilateral "oscillating" approach and holding a 12 - 4 positive spread arbitrage position. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - The spot market has slow demand recovery, high supply, the establishment of new alliances, and price drops during the off - season [5] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: Data on container ship order volumes are presented in multiple graphs, showing order volumes by different container ship loading capacities over different time periods [12] - **Delivery Volume**: Graphs display delivery volumes of container ships by different loading capacities from 2000 to 2025 [15] - **Demolition Volume**: Information on the demolition volumes of container ships by different loading capacities is provided, covering the period from 2022 to 2025 [17] - **Future Delivery**: Future delivery volumes of container ships are shown, including breakdowns by loading capacity and quarterly and seasonal data from 2023 to 2029 [21] - **Ship - Breaking and New - Building Prices**: There are graphs showing ship - breaking prices by different loading capacities, new - building price indices, and new - building prices by different loading capacities from 2015 to 2025 [28][30] - **Second - Hand Ship Prices**: Second - hand ship price indices and prices of second - hand ships with different loading capacities and ages are presented from 2015 to 2025 [34][39] - **Existing Container Ship Capacity**: Information on the existing capacity of container ships, including total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, proportion of idle/laid - up/retrofitted ships, average age, and average age of scrapped ships, is provided from 2015 to 2025 [42][50] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule**: Data on the total capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, as well as the capacity deployments of PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN from week 13 to week 28, are presented [56][64] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: Graphs show the capacity and number of container ships with installed and under - installation desulfurization towers, as well as the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation and the average speed of container ships from 2018 to 2025 [

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic and corporate profit factors are rated as neutral. In July, the prosperity of the three major industry indices generally declined. Supply - side manufacturing saw a double - drop in production and demand. Externally, demand showed resilience, with a smaller decline in new export orders than new orders. Extreme weather and falling demand dragged down the production start - up rate. The "anti - involution" initiative was effective, alleviating low - price competition and boosting raw material and ex - factory prices, thus improving corporate business expectations. [3] - Macro - policy factors are rated as neutral - to - bullish. The Central Political Bureau Meeting on July 30 emphasized improving the implementation efficiency of existing policies, with relatively limited signals for new incremental aggregate policies. Market expectations for real - estate incremental policies were adjusted. Policy statements in the consumption and investment fields remained consistent. The "anti - involution" related wording was adjusted, which may reflect a change in policy focus. [3] - Overseas factors are rated as neutral. From July 28th to 29th, Sino - US representatives held the third round of economic and trade talks in Stockholm. Both sides had in - depth, candid, and constructive exchanges and would promote the extension of the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures. [3] - Liquidity factors are rated as bullish. As of July 31st, the A - share margin trading balance was 1978.5 billion yuan, an increase of 3.727 billion yuan from the previous week. The A - share margin trading purchase amount accounted for 11.5% of the total market turnover, at the 97.2% quantile level in the past decade. [3][32] - The investment view is to buy on dips. In the short term, as macro - level positives are gradually realized, the upward speed of stock indices may slow down, and market fluctuations and adjustments should be watched out for. In the long run, this year's futures index market has been more driven by valuation expansion, with relatively weak profit drivers. Currently, there is still support at the valuation level. For example, although the current price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 has returned to the median, the ERP is still at a historically high level (74.25% quantile), and with Huijin's support for liquidity, valuation factors are expected to continue to play a role. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Market Review - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 1.75% to 4054.9; the SSE 50 fell 1.48% to 2754.1; the CSI 500 fell 1.37% to 6213.2; the CSI 1000 fell 0.54% to 6670.5. [5] - In terms of futures, the IF main contract of the CSI 300 fell 1.96%, the IH main contract of the SSE 50 fell 1.47%, the IC main contract of the CSI 500 fell 1.56%, and the IM main contract of the CSI 1000 fell 0.76%. [6] - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, last week, Medicine and Biology (2.9%), Communication (2.5%), Media (1.1%), Electronics (0.3%), and Social Services (0.1%) led the gains, while Non - Ferrous Metals (- 4.6%), Real Estate (- 3.4%), Transportation (- 3.2%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (- 3%), and Power Equipment (- 2.6%) led the losses. [8] - In terms of trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, the trading volume of CSI 300 futures was 584321 lots, with a 7.33% change; SSE 50 futures was 290211 lots, with a 6.13% change; CSI 500 futures was 490539 lots, with a 7.75% change; CSI 1000 futures was 1086841 lots, with a 14.10% change. The open interest of CSI 300 futures was 261869 lots, with a 0.65% change; SSE 50 futures was 96900 lots, with a - 0.55% change; CSI 500 futures was 220244 lots, with a - 2.36% change; CSI 1000 futures was 338220 lots, with a 3.42% change. [12] - As of August 1st, the annualized discount of the current - month contract IF2508 was 7.8%; IH2508 was 0.12%; IC2508 was 19.97%; IM2508 was 20.98%. The annualized discount of the next - month contract IF2509 was 4.65%; IH2509 had an annualized premium of 0.07%; IC2509 was 13.09%; IM2509 was 14.26%. The annualized discount of the current - quarter contract IF2512 was 3.71%; IH2512 had an annualized premium of 0.21%; IC2512 was 10.75%; IM2512 was 12.17%. The annualized discount of the next - quarter contract IF2603 was 3.38%; IH2603 had an annualized premium of 0.18%; IC2603 was 9.77%; IM2603 was 11.47%. [16] - The spread between the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 closed at 1300.8, at the 84.1% historical quantile level; the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 closed at 457.3, at the 65.8% historical quantile level. The ratio of the CSI 300 to the CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 33.3% historical quantile level; the ratio of the SSE 50 to the CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 36% historical quantile level. [20] 3.2 Factors Affecting Stock Indices - Liquidity - In terms of the money market and macro - liquidity, the central bank conducted 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations in the open market this week, with 1656.3 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6.9 billion yuan. Next week, 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases will mature. [26] - As of July 31st, the A - share margin trading balance was 1978.5 billion yuan, an increase of 3.727 billion yuan from the previous week. The A - share margin trading purchase amount accounted for 11.5% of the total market turnover, at the 97.2% quantile level in the past decade. Last week, the daily trading volumes of A - shares were 1619.1 billion yuan, 1662.8 billion yuan, 1709.2 billion yuan, 1782.1 billion yuan, and 1466.6 billion yuan respectively, with an average daily trading volume 64.06 billion yuan less than the previous week. As of August 1st, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.92, at the 75.7% quantile level in the past decade. [32] 3.3 Factors Affecting Stock Indices - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Profit - In terms of China's macro - economic indicators, in June 2025, GDP at constant prices was 5.2%, industrial added - value year - on - year was 6.8%, fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year was 2.8%, real - estate investment was - 11.2%, infrastructure investment was 4.6%, manufacturing investment was 7.5%, social consumer goods retail was 4.8%, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, CPI was 0.1%, PPI was - 3.6%, the increment of social financing was not provided, the growth rate of social financing stock was 8.9%, new RMB loans were 2360 billion yuan, M1 was 4.6%, M2 was 8.3%, exports in US dollars were 5.9%, imports in US dollars were 1.1%, manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, and non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5%. [35] - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3, a decrease of 0.4 from June; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, a decrease of 0.4 from June. Among them, new orders, new export orders, production, and other sub - indices all declined to varying degrees, while the production and operation activity expectation index increased by 0.6. [42] - In terms of the profitability of major broad - based indices, as of March 31, 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent company of the CSI 300 was 3.32%, and the return on equity (ROE) was 9.75%; for the SSE 50, the net profit growth rate was - 0.19%, and ROE was 10.21%; for the CSI 500, the net profit growth rate was 7.39%, and ROE was 5.99%; for the CSI 1000, the net profit growth rate was 3.34%, and ROE was 5.12%. [47] 3.4 Factors Affecting Stock Indices - Policy Drivers - A series of macro - policies have been introduced, including the Central Urban Work Conference held from July 14th to 15th, which pointed out that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage, and urban development is shifting from large - scale incremental expansion to stock quality improvement. The meeting deployed seven key tasks. [52] - The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1st emphasized governing low - price disorderly competition in enterprises and introduced a series of monetary policy measures. [53] - The State Council's press conference on May 7th announced a series of measures from quantitative, price - based, and structural monetary policies, such as reducing the deposit - reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points and lowering policy interest rates. [53] 3.5 Factors Affecting Stock Indices - Overseas Factors - In the United States, in July, the manufacturing PMI was 48%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI data was not fully provided, with a decrease of 50.8 percentage points from the previous value. The seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate was 4.2%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July was 61.7, an increase of 1 from the previous value. [60][62] - In June, the year - on - year growth rate of PCE was 2.58%, and the core PCE was 2.79%; the year - on - year growth rate of CPI was 2.7%, and the core CPI was 2.9%. [63] - Trump's team has made a series of tariff - related statements and actions, including threatening to impose tariffs on imports from China, Canada, Mexico, and other countries, and implementing "reciprocal tariffs" policies, which have led to China's counter - measures. [69][71] 3.6 Factors Affecting Stock Indices - Valuation - As of August 1, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 13.1 times, 11.3 times, 30.2 times, and 41 times respectively, at the 65.4%, 79.5%, 71%, and 63.3% quantile levels in the past decade. [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on styrene is "oscillating", with the expectation that styrene will be mainly supported by cost and tend to be bullish [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - Energy and raw material prices have stabilized and partially rebounded after a sharp decline recently. Asian styrene prices are stable, while the domestic fundamentals are weak. Inventory continues to accumulate, and market sentiment remains weak. The spreads between styrene and naphtha and benzene indicate that the economics for non - integrated producers in Asia are still poor. Domestic traditional off - season consumption prospects are dim, and sales activities are still sluggish. Coastal inventory and stable domestic styrene supply exert pressure on prices. However, domestic polymer demand remains stable, and the operating loads of EPS, PS, acrylonitrile, butadiene, and ABS are stable [4][132]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. Energy and raw material prices have dropped significantly recently. Asian styrene prices are stable, domestic fundamentals are weak, inventory is accumulating, and market sentiment has weakened. The spreads between styrene and naphtha and benzene are $310/ton and $180 respectively, and the economics for non - integrated producers in Asia are poor [4]. - **Demand**: Bearish. Domestic traditional off - season consumption prospects are dim, sales activities are still sluggish. Coastal inventory and stable domestic styrene supply pressure prices. Domestic polymer demand remains stable, and the operating loads of EPS, PS, acrylonitrile, butadiene, and ABS are stable [4]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. As of July 28, 2025, the total sample inventory of styrene ports in Jiangsu was 164,000 tons, an increase of 13,300 tons or 8.83% from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 67,500 tons, an increase of 11,300 tons or 20.11% from the previous period [4]. - **Basis**: Bearish. The styrene basis has weakened, and styrene profits have shrunk [4]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spreads between styrene and naphtha and benzene are $310/ton and $180 respectively [4]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. Styrene plant supply has increased, profits have been compressed, valuation is neutral, and commodity sentiment has weakened [4]. - **Macro - policy**: Bullish. Trump threatened to punish India if it did not cut off Russian oil imports, but Indian officials said they would continue to buy cheap oil from Russia [4]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Styrene is expected to be mainly supported by cost and tend to be bullish [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude Oil**: US sanctions on Russian crude oil have intensified [6]. - **Styrene**: The profits of styrene integrated plants have shrunk, and the volume of styrene arriving at ports has increased. The commodity sentiment of pure benzene has weakened, and it has followed the downward trend [14][25][36]. - **Pure Benzene**: The volume and price of aniline have increased. The balance of benzene is expected to tighten in August. The ratio of benzene to crude oil has strengthened, and the arbitrage window between North America and the world is about to open. However, the unplanned maintenance of North American styrene plants is still a negative factor for pure benzene demand [71][83]. 3.3 Overview of Polymer Demand - **Styrene Downstream**: - **ABS**: Downstream demand is weak, with mainstream prices, production, and inventory data showing certain trends [51][55]. - **PS**: Inventory has rebounded, and profits have declined [63]. - **EPS**: The operating load has increased, and gross profit has recovered [73]. - **Pure Benzene**: - Aniline has seen an increase in both volume and price [83]. - The balance of benzene is expected to tighten in August, and the market is gradually recovering. However, the impact of tariffs on North American styrene exports needs to be considered [71]. - **Other Products**: - Phenol inventory has declined [93]. - Adipic acid production gross profit is low [104]. - Caprolactam production has decreased, and inventory has declined [117]. - Home appliance export demand is expected to decline slightly after concentrated exports [128].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", indicating that the short - term demand is average and the supply is in a loose pattern, and the market may fluctuate within a range [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply is bearish as the shortage of old - crop inventory is gradually priced in while the weak reality of new - crop bumper harvest is not. The demand is neutral due to over - capacity in spinning and high operating rates. The overall view is that the market will oscillate in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. The shortage of old - crop inventory is gradually priced in, and the weak reality of new - crop bumper harvest is not yet priced in [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. Spinning over - capacity and high operating rates lead to strong industrial demand for cotton [3] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the basis of Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, with the basis of Xinjiang Shuang 28 spot at 1000 - 1200. The spread between September and January contracts of Zhengzhou cotton strengthened continuously this week [3] - **Profit**: Bearish. Spinning in Xinjiang has a slight loss, and spinning in the inland has a serious loss. The spread between yarn and cotton prices is running at a low level [3] - **Valuation**: Neutral. The current absolute price is at a neutral level in the past four years [3] - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for supporting the long - term demand for domestic cotton, which is bullish for far - month contracts. Internationally, Sino - US trade negotiations are in a short - term deadlock, and the tariff exemption period is extended again, which is bearish in terms of sentiment [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillation. Short - term demand is average, and supply is in a loose pattern, so the market may fluctuate within a range [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Lightly short the CF01 contract; Arbitrage: Reverse spread between CF1 - 5 contracts [3] 3.2 Cotton Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Upstream Planting - **Area Forecast**: The forecast shows an increase in cotton - planting area. The first survey in 2025 shows that the national cotton - planting area is expected to be 4159.9 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 1.88%, and the area in Xinjiang is expected to be 3678.8 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 3.18% [5][8][9] - **Yield per Unit Area**: The report provides historical data on cotton yield per unit area in the whole country and Xinjiang from 2013 to 2025. For example, in 2025, the national yield per unit area is expected to be 149.9 kg/mu, and that in Xinjiang is expected to be 158.5 kg/mu [10] 3.2.2 Mid - stream Situation - **Inventory**: There is inventory accumulation of finished products. The raw material and finished - product inventories of yarn mills and weaving mills are presented in the form of historical data of multiple years [18][19] - **Factory Load**: The operating rate is declining. The loads of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are shown in historical data of multiple years [25][26] - **Yarn Mill Profit**: There are losses. The immediate spinning profit and the spot spread between yarn and cotton are presented in historical data of multiple years [29][30] 3.2.3 Downstream Situation - **Inventory**: At a seasonal high. The inventories and finished - product inventories of textile and clothing enterprises above designated size are presented in historical data of multiple years [32][33] 3.2.4 Import and Export Situation - **Domestic Import**: The report shows historical data on the monthly and cumulative imports of domestic cotton and cotton yarn from 2018 to 2025 [37] - **US Cotton Export** - **Overall**: The signing volume is at the lowest in recent years, and the shipment is seasonally increasing [39] - **To China**: Significantly decreased year - on - year, at a low level in the same period [48] - **To Pakistan**: Significantly increased year - on - year, at a high level in the same period [54] - **To Vietnam**: The signing and shipment volumes have significantly increased year - on - year [60] - **To Bangladesh**: The shipment volume has decreased year - on - year [67] 3.3 Cotton Capital - related Data - **Zhengzhou Cotton Basis**: Oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts is presented in historical data of multiple years [73][74] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Spread**: The spreads between Zhengzhou cotton 09 - 01 and 01 - 05 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [77] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Position**: The position of the 09 contract has declined rapidly. The positions of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [79][80] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt**: The virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract has declined rapidly. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract are presented in historical data of multiple years [84][85] - **Management Fund's Net Long Position in US Cotton Futures**: The net long positions and the proportion of long positions of management funds in US cotton futures and options are presented in historical data of multiple years [91][92] - **US Cotton Spread**: In a deep contango state. The spreads between US cotton 05 - 07 and 07 - 12 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [95][96]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for polyester is "oscillating", with an expectation of being mainly bearish due to the lack of obvious driving factors [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the polyester market has significantly weakened, and the fundamentals of PTA have slightly deteriorated. There are mixed factors in supply, demand, inventory, basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policies, leading to an oscillating market outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Polyester load has declined, reducing PTA demand. PTA port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $240, while the profit margins of alkylation transfer and TDP are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains around $100 [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester remains at 88%. The main polyester production cuts are concentrated in short - fiber and bottle - chip varieties, which will affect polyester load. As PTA prices recover, the load of the weaving end has declined [3]. - **Inventory**: PTA port inventory has decreased by 35,000 tons this week, entering a destocking cycle [3]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has weakened rapidly. As PTA device profits recover, the number of devices has increased rapidly, and market liquidity is slightly tight [3]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha is $240, and the spread between PX and MX has shrunk. PTA processing fees are maintained at around 250 yuan and have contracted [3]. - **Valuation**: PTA prices are at a moderately low level. As reforming devices gradually recover, aromatics supply has increased, and the expansion of gasoline profits has boosted demand [3]. - **Macro - policy**: There is uncertainty in India's oil import policy from Russia due to Trump's threat of punishment, but Indian officials say the policy remains unchanged [3][9]. - **Investment View**: The market is expected to oscillate, mainly bearish due to the lack of obvious driving factors [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: The US is sanctioning Russian crude oil. Trump threatened to punish India if it does not cut off Russian oil imports, but Indian officials will continue to import [5][9]. - **Gasoline**: Demand is strong during the peak season. North American refinery loads remain high. Diesel price increases drive up crude oil prices, and crude oil inventory has increased continuously. Refinery operating rates are high, gasoline production exceeds 9.9 million barrels, but imports have decreased. Finished gasoline inventory decline supports crude oil and gasoline prices. The spread between European gasoline and naphtha remains at $150 [10][16][24]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - **Domestic Reforming Devices**: Loads are gradually recovering. North American reforming device profit margins remain unchanged, while reforming octane profit margins have slightly increased, and BTX extraction profit margins have slightly declined. Aromatics extraction demand can be met internally [27][43]. - **Selective Disproportionation**: Profits have shrunk. The economic viability of North American TDP and STDP is weak, and MX supply may decrease, but STDP profit margins have been positive for about two months [44][50]. - **Polyester Load**: It has started to decline. PX pricing is closely linked to futures after the listing of PX futures. PTA processing intervals are long - term below 500 yuan, and option - based income - enhancement schemes are more widely used. Short - fiber and bottle - chip industries are in the capacity - expansion cycle, and overseas demand is an important variable, with new export opportunities along the "Belt and Road" [51][55]. - **Reforming Device Maintenance**: It is gradually returning. Asian naphtha markets have strengthened slightly, and the cracking spread of naphtha - Brent crude oil has improved. Asian gasoline remains strong, but gasoline reforming profit margins have declined. Asian spot MX supply is still sufficient [56][57]. - **Gasoline and Aromatics Reforming**: Both have strengthened. Domestic commodity sentiment has weakened, polyester downstream load has decreased to 88%. PTA spot has become slightly more abundant, and port inventory has decreased. PTA basis has dropped from 0 to - 20. Some reforming device overhauls have been postponed, and bottle - chip manufacturers have started production - cut plans [63]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices have rebounded due to rising coal prices and improved macro - sentiment. Overseas device overhauls, especially in Saudi Arabia, have been postponed, and future arrivals are expected to decrease. Polyester production and sales have weakened, and the industry has entered an overhaul cycle, which has a negative impact on the market [70][77]. - **Gasoline**: Profits have recovered, and the load of major refineries has increased [79]. - **Polyester**: Downstream demand has weakened, and bottle - chip and short - fiber production facilities are undergoing maintenance. Raw material prices have risen, while terminal demand has weakened [87][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on butadiene rubber is a bearish oscillation, indicating that the price of butadiene rubber is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4]. Core View of the Report - The sentiment has declined, and there are negative factors on the cost side. The price of butadiene rubber (BR) is oscillating at a low level. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase in August, while the demand shows a neutral trend. The inventory and basis show a positive trend, and the profit and geopolitical - macro factors are negative [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - This week, the price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales has been reduced by 400 yuan/ton in total, and that of major sales companies of PetroChina has been reduced by 100 yuan/ton in total. As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China is between 11,800 and 12,100 yuan/ton. The market sentiment has changed, and the prices of butadiene rubber, raw material butadiene, and related natural rubber have gradually declined [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 1.034 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 69.97%. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 910,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.46%. Some butadiene devices were shut down or under maintenance, and the production of butadiene rubber is expected to continue to increase in August [4]. Demand - For semi - steel tires, the replacement market's sales performance has continued the weak trend of last week, and the terminal demand has not improved significantly. For all - steel tires, the market transactions have increased slightly compared with last week, and some brands may raise prices next month [4]. Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 104,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.76%. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 31,320 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. The overall inventory of sample enterprises has limited fluctuations [4]. Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 55 yuan/ton, in East China is 45 yuan/ton, and in South China is 95 yuan/ton. The futures price is higher than the spot price [4]. Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread is 2,855 yuan/ton (a decrease of 9.72%), the NR - BR spread is - 2,044 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20.44%), and the BR - SC price ratio is 0.94% [4]. Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation is 176 yuan/ton, and that by C4 extraction is 1,988 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber is - 176 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin is - 1.47% [4]. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The fundamentals of crude oil are continuously loose, the demand in the refined oil market is weak, and the international crude oil price is oscillating downward. The market's optimistic sentiment towards the "anti - involution" policy has weakened, and the premium of the coal chemical and new energy chains has been given back. Trump signed an executive order to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on multiple countries and regions, but the market generally believes that China - US tariffs may ease [4]. Device Information - In 2025, many refineries in China have carried out or planned to carry out device overhauls, including major state - owned refineries and local refineries. Some butadiene and butadiene rubber production devices are also in a state of overhaul or shutdown [12][13]. Price Trend Charts - The report provides various price trend charts, including the price trends of butadiene rubber, butadiene, and other related products, as well as the seasonal charts of prices, production, consumption, and inventory [15][21][32]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Oscillation; Arbitrage trading: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Also, pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, device overhauls, and geopolitical factors [4].