Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market is currently in a state of flux, with spot freight rates on the trans - Pacific route falling and carriers taking measures to stabilize prices. The European route is expected to experience a transition between the off - season and peak season, and the implementation of shipping companies' price increases is uncertain. A 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended [4][6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) both declined. SCFI dropped by 6.97% to 1115, and CCFI decreased by 2.93% to 1087. Rates on various routes such as the US West, US East, Northwest Europe, and Mediterranean also saw significant drops, with the SCFIS - Northwest Europe falling 17.15% to 1193 and the SCFI - Mediterranean down 9.34% to 1485 [5]. - **Contract Freight Index**: Most of the contract freight indices showed a slight decline, except for EC2506 which had a 0.08% increase to 1483.5. EC2608 decreased by 0.66% to 1617.2, EC2510 dropped by 2.90% to 1139.0, etc. [5]. - **Position and Spread**: Positions in some contracts decreased, like EC2606 position decreased by 14 to 938 and EC2608 by 14 to 542. The 10 - 12 spread decreased by 27.9 to - 638.0, the 12 - 2 spread increased by 5.1 to 92.0, and the 12 - 4 spread increased by 10.4 to 508.4 [5]. 3.2 Market News and Its Impact - Trans - Pacific shipping companies are increasing capacity cuts to stop the decline in freight rates. Spot freight rates on the east - west trans - Pacific route have fallen below the fixed contract prices signed by medium - sized retailers in May. In the next four weeks, trans - Pacific liner companies will accelerate the implementation of blank sailings to stabilize falling spot freight rates [6]. 3.3 EC Market Review - **Market Trend**: The market is in a state of oscillation. The main reason is that CM4 has raised the November freight rate to 3000, and MSK's unchanged freight rate in the second week of October has increased the expectation of a halt in the decline. MSK has announced a price increase of 400 for the late - October freight rate to 1800 [7]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the GEMINI October upper - half price dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. In late September, the FMK freight rate center was around 1500 [7]. 3.4 Market Logic and Strategy - **Logic**: In late September, shipping companies collectively cut prices to grab cargo, and the freight rate once dropped to 1300 dollars/FEU. Before the peak season at the end of the year, Maersk took the lead in announcing a 400 - dollar/FEU price increase for late October. However, due to the decline in both supply and demand in October, it is likely to return to the off - season market. The European route will focus on price stabilization and support during the transition between the off - season and peak season, and the implementation of shipping companies' price increases is uncertain [8]. - **Strategy**: A 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended [9].

· 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 钢材：高产量水平下，考验需求 | 投资观点： | 震荡 | 黑色金属 | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025-9-29 | 季度报告 | ⚫ 需求：内需偏淡、出口潜在信心不足 出口依然是钢材几个需求指标中最有韧性的，需要注意的是 有一定脆弱性。内需指标三季度都有不同程度回落：地产垫 底，制造业和基建高增放缓。卷、螺库存三季度去化不理想， 从实际需求表现来看，10 月是建材次旺季，按照近几年历史 季节性变化的同期参考，四季度钢材库存和产量边际变化方 向大多是下降的，但建材表需高点往往出现在国庆节前的某 一周。不过宏观层面存中美降息周期共振等利好风偏的可能 性，可关注资金行为是否有助于投机需求改善。 ⚫ 供给：产量高位，增加对需求匹配度的要求 今年钢厂即期生产利润还不错，长流程优于短流程，是产量 保持高位的重要条件。基于年度产量平控要求以及四季度后 需求预期提速的空间暂时不大，四季度产量层面需关注是否 有减产行为。 单边建议敞口中性配置，或等待新驱动出现。 贸易环节建议关注流动性好的现货品种滚动交易基差。 品种价差层面，关注卷螺差 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment view: Range-bound trading [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4, the path of the Fed's interest rate cuts remains uncertain, and China's growth-stabilizing policies are expected to be rolled out. Affected by macro events, nickel prices are likely to consolidate at the bottom and are more sensitive to supply-side disturbances. Focus on mining news and macro changes in Q4, and the valuation range of pure nickel can refer to the production cost of integrated electrowon nickel (which fluctuates with ore prices). In terms of operations, short-term range trading is recommended, and combination strategies such as selling out-of-the-money call options can be used to increase returns, while paying attention to risk control [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q1, policies in nickel resource countries stimulated price increases; in Q2, trade conflicts and an intensified surplus led to a sharp decline; in Q3, the fundamentals were stable, and the Fed's interest rate cut in September provided a temporary boost. As of September 26, SHFE nickel closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from mid-year, and LME nickel was reported at $15,230/ton, up 0.33% [8]. 3.2 Macro Analysis 3.2.1 Fed Interest Rate Cut - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September, but the subsequent path remains uncertain. The economic outlook shows an upward adjustment of GDP growth expectations, while unemployment and inflation expectations are relatively stable [12][13]. - The US labor market has weakened significantly, with non-farm payrolls being persistently weak and the unemployment rate reaching a new high since October 2021. Inflation has been rising steadily, increasing market expectations for further interest rate cuts [21]. 3.2.2 China's Economic Situation - In H2, some macro data showed signs of weakening, including fixed asset investment and social consumption. The government may introduce new incremental measures in Q4, focusing on fiscal stimulus, central bank interest rate cuts, and stabilizing the real estate market [24][27]. - The "anti-involution" policies have been introduced, but their impact on the nickel industry chain is currently limited [28][29]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply Side - Indonesia's nickel ore supply is stable, but there are risks of policy disturbances. The premium for nickel ore remains firm, and Indonesia's imports of nickel ore from the Philippines are increasing. The RKAB quota for 2026 will be re-approved in October, attracting market attention [31][32]. - China's nickel pig iron production has declined slightly, while Indonesia's production remains high but with a slowing growth rate. The import of nickel pig iron from Indonesia has increased year-on-year [43][44]. - The import of nickel intermediate products has increased, with a decline in the import of nickel matte. Indonesia's MHP production has increased significantly, while the production of nickel matte has decreased [51][54]. - The production of refined nickel has remained high, with both imports and exports increasing. The cost of integrated electrowon nickel production will be the focus of pure nickel valuation [58][68]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - The growth rate of stainless steel production has slowed down, and the demand has shown some resilience. The social inventory of stainless steel is gradually being depleted [70][80]. - The production of nickel sulfate has remained stable year-on-year, but the low proportion of ternary materials in power batteries has dragged down the demand for nickel. In the long term, solid-state batteries may drive the demand for high-nickel ternary materials [85][88]. - The consumption of nickel in alloy and special steel has maintained a certain growth rate, and attention should be paid to the situation of national stockpiling [92][93]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Global nickel inventory has continued to accumulate, and the spot premium has weakened slightly compared to mid-year [95]. 3.3.4 Supply-Demand Balance - The surplus pattern of primary nickel continues, and attention should be paid to supply-side disturbances in Q4. It is expected that China will have a surplus of 179,800 tons of primary nickel in 2025, and the global surplus will be 246,200 tons [100][102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating bearish" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, PG prices have fallen from high levels. The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers and tend to be weak. The supply - demand of propylene in the intermediate link is under pressure, and the short - term demand for PP is saturated with a shutdown expectation in the later period. The PDH profit is expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts in the market, macro and geopolitical risks [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures declined, with a fluctuation range of 4230 - 4490 yuan/ton. In the first half of the week, the international crude oil price dropped, suppressing the market trend. Both domestic and foreign spot prices fell, and the sentiment of market participants was weak, leading to a rapid decline in the market. However, the domestic propane demand increased month - on - month, the combustion demand improved successively, and the demand expectation increased. In the second half of the week, the crude oil price rebounded, and the market rebounded slightly after reaching the bottom [5] 3.2 Domestic LPG Delivery Product Spot Price and Basis - **Spot Price**: In different regions, the prices of civil gas, imported gas, and ether - post - C4 have different changes. For example, in the East China region, the average price of civil gas decreased by 0.50% week - on - week; in the South China region, the price of Maoming civil gas remained unchanged week - on - week [7] - **Basis**: The weekly average basis in East China was 126.80 yuan/ton, in South China was 357.80 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 301.80 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts increased by 1353 to 14327 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] 3.3 LPG Futures Price, Inter - month Spread, and Cross - month Spread - **Futures Price**: The prices of different LPG futures contracts (PG01 - PG12) showed different degrees of decline compared with the previous week and month. For example, PG01 decreased by 4.36% week - on - week and 1.83% month - on - month [8] - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spreads (such as PG01 - PG02, PG02 - PG03, etc.) also had different changes compared with the previous week and month. For example, the spread of PG01 - PG02 decreased by 6.06% week - on - week and increased by 3.33% month - on - month [8] - **Cross - month Spread**: The cross - month spreads (such as PG01 - PG03, PG02 - PG04, etc.) also showed different trends. For example, the spread of PG01 - PG03 decreased by 6.04% week - on - week and 4.76% month - on - month [8] - **Arbitrage**: There are month - to - month and cross - month arbitrage strategies. For example, in month - to - month arbitrage, the spread between PG2511 and PG2512 was 7.9 on the day, and the z - score was 1.7318 [8] 3.4 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - **Main Refineries**: Many main refineries in China have device maintenance plans in 2025, including full - plant maintenance and partial device maintenance of some refineries such as Beihai Refining and Chemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical, etc. [9] - **Local Refineries**: Local refineries in Shandong, Northeast, Central China, and Northwest regions also have corresponding device maintenance plans, such as the full - plant maintenance of Shenchi Chemical, Xin泰 Petrochemical, etc. [9] 3.5 LPG Production Device and PDH Device Maintenance Plan - **LPG Production Device**: Some LPG production enterprises in China have device maintenance plans in 2025, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical, Huaxing Petrochemical, etc. [10] - **PDH Device**: Some PDH devices in China are in normal operation, while some are in shutdown or maintenance. For example, Qingdao Jinneng Phase I is in shutdown for maintenance, and it is expected to restart on October 1st [11] 3.6 Fundamental Factors Affecting LPG - **Supply**: Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 539,200 tons. The commercial volume of civil gas was 211,200 tons (a decrease of 4.76%), industrial gas was 212,500 tons (a decrease of 0.75%), and ether - post - C4 was 170,130 tons (a decrease of 1.64%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, and some enterprises will reduce production, so the domestic commercial volume is expected to decline [4] - **Demand**: The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is weakening. In the deep - processing of C4, affected by new energy substitution, the gasoline demand is weakening. The profit of MTBE is inverted, but the operating rate is high. The profit of alkylated gasoline has turned from profit to loss, and the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep. The ether - post - market may fall and stabilize. In the deep - processing of C3, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is expected to decline. After the National Day, the operating rate may drop below 65%. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has fallen, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. The PDH device has shown continuous losses from propylene to PP, and the profit negative feedback effect has emerged [4] - **Inventory**: Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 188,100 tons (an increase of 4.33%), and the port inventory was 3.1366 million tons (a decrease of 3.01%). The storage capacity utilization rate of the domestic LPG market increased last week. The inventory reduction in Northeast, Shandong, and Central China was relatively smooth through price concessions, but affected by adverse factors such as typhoon extreme weather and supply increase, the inventory in East China, South China, North China, and the West continued to increase. At the port, the arrival of ships decreased, and the replenishment of imported resources was insufficient [4] - **Basis and Position**: The weekly average basis in East China was 126.80 yuan/ton, in South China was 357.80 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 301.80 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 14,327 lots, an increase of 1,353 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] - **Chemical Downstream**: The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 69.48%, 58.35%, and 45.51% respectively. The profit of PDH to propylene was - 349 yuan/ton, the profit of MTBE isomerization was - 90 yuan/ton, and the profit of alkylation in Shandong was - 13 yuan/ton [4] - **Valuation**: The PG - SC ratio was - 2.47%, and the spread between PG continuous first and continuous second months was 79 yuan/ton. The continuous increase in crude oil production has dragged down the cost section, and the PG - SC cracking spread has continued to strengthen [4] - **Other Factors**: Crude oil is in a fundamental surplus expectation caused by geopolitical factors, sanctions, and OPEC+ production increase, and maintains range - bound trading. The non - farm payrolls data in the United States in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed people, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and it is expected to cut interest rates by 50bp or more within the year. Geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East are frequently disturbed in the short term and tend to be tense [4] 3.7 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment View**: The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers and tend to be weak. The supply - demand of propylene in the intermediate link is under pressure, and the short - term demand for PP is saturated with a shutdown expectation in the later period. The PDH profit is expected to decline further. Overall, in the short - term, PG prices have fallen from high levels, and the profit negative feedback effect of downstream PDH is prominent [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies include going long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, going long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and going long on SC and short on PG [4]

| 2023-00 | ZUZ4-UB | 00-6707 | 22 ETF-SPOR ETF-SLVIRET - 200 | 2025-09 | 2024-09 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 | 一黄金基差(AuT+D-期货连续) | -- COMEX金银比价 | ●SHFE金银比价 | -- | -- 伦敦金现(右) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -- 白银价差(AgT+D-期货连续) | | | | | | | | | | | 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic PTA device is gradually returning, and domestic PTA output is rising, but PTA profit is still restricted by over - capacity and new device commissioning. Previously, due to pessimistic demand and new device commissioning expectations, PTA processing fees were low. Recently, with improved demand, postponed new device commissioning and some enterprises reducing production to maintain prices, PTA processing fees show signs of recovery. Polyester load remains above 90%, and the high polyester load does not cause significant inventory accumulation, indicating that market demand is optimistic at low prices, especially export demand. The promotion of mainstream factories has led to a small peak in pre - National Day stocking. Under the environment of low processing fees and market anti - involution, PTA operating rate may further improve [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4585 on 2025/9/25 to 4590 on 2025/9/26 [2] - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4315 on 2025/9/25 to 4294 on 2025/9/26 [2] - PTA closing price decreased from 4678 on 2025/9/25 to 4646 on 2025/9/26 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 4246 on 2025/9/25 to 4213 on 2025/9/26 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6500 on 2025/9/25 to 6495 on 2025/9/26 [2] - Short - fiber basis increased from 83 on 2025/9/25 to 102 on 2025/9/26 [2] - 10 - 11 spread decreased from 0 on 2025/9/25 to 2 on 2025/9/26 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 on 2025/9/25 to 246 on 2025/9/26 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price decreased from 5625 on 2025/9/25 to 5525 on 2025/9/26 [2] 3.2 Market Conditions of Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - Short - fiber: The price of polyester staple fiber production factories is stable, the price range of traders is adjusted, downstream purchases as needed, and on - site transactions are sluggish. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market is 6300 - 6550 RMB for cash on delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it is 6420 - 6670 RMB for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it is 6300 - 6450 RMB for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery [2] - Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chip in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5800 - 5890 RMB/ton, with the average price remaining the same as the previous working day. The futures market is closed, there is no futures guidance, the supply side's offers are stable, downstream terminals are temporarily on the sidelines, and the market trading atmosphere is cold [2] 3.3 Price and Profit Changes of Yarn - T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 10270 on 2025/9/25 to 10300 on 2025/9/26, and the processing fee increased from 3770 to 3805 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price increased from 16300 on 2025/9/25 to 16350 on 2025/9/26, and the profit increased from 1407 to 1504 [2] - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14770 on 2025/9/25 to 14655 on 2025/9/26 [2] 3.4 Load and Production - Sales Data - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40% [3] - Polyester staple fiber production - sales rate decreased from 78.00% to 45.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained at 63.50% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) increased from 51.00% to 51.50% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: As domestic PTA plants gradually resume operation, PTA production is on the rise. However, PTA profits are still constrained by over - capacity and new plant commissions. Recently, with improved demand, delayed new plant commissions, and some enterprises reducing production to maintain prices, PTA processing fees show signs of recovery. High polyester loads without significant inventory accumulation indicate optimistic market demand, especially in exports. PTA's operating rate may further improve [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol at East China ports is 46.5 tons. The overall inventory continues to decline, and it is expected to further deplete. Although overseas imports are expected to decline, domestic plant commissions keep the ethylene glycol price under pressure. Polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load is rising [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Comparison - INE crude oil price increased from 490.6 yuan/barrel on September 25, 2025, to 491.3 yuan/barrel on September 26, 2025, with a change of 0.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1112.8 yuan/ton to 1075.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.09 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3121 to 1.3013, a decrease of 0.0108 [2]. - CFR China PX decreased from 817 to 814, a decrease of 3; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 211 to 206, a decrease of 5 [2]. - PTA main futures price decreased from 4678 yuan/ton to 4646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.0 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 4585 to 4590, an increase of 5.0 [2]. - PTA spot processing fee increased from 213.5 yuan/ton to 222.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.0 yuan/ton; PTA futures processing fee decreased from 291.5 yuan/ton to 273.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.0 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG main futures price decreased from 4246 yuan/ton to 4213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from (133.89) yuan/ton to (135.48) yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.6 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG domestic price decreased from 4315 to 4294, a decrease of 21.0 [2]. 2. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - PX operating rate remained at 85.57%; PTA operating rate decreased from 78.12% to 77.23%, a decrease of 0.89%; MEG operating rate remained at 62.62%; polyester load decreased from 88.74% to 87.81%, a decrease of 0.93% [2]. 3. Product Data Polyester Filament - POY150D/48F increased from 6530 to 6605, an increase of 75.0; POY cash flow increased from (86) to (8), an increase of 78.0 [2]. - FDY150D/96F increased from 6720 to 6790, an increase of 70.0; FDY cash flow increased from (396) to (323), an increase of 73.0 [2]. - DTY150D/48F increased from 7840 to 7870, an increase of 30.0; DTY cash flow increased from 24 to 57, an increase of 33.0 [2]. - Filament sales decreased from 175% to 40%, a decrease of 135% [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6500 to 6495, a decrease of 5; polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased from 234 to 232, a decrease of 2.0 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber sales decreased from 88% to 60%, a decrease of 28% [2]. Polyester Chips - Semi - bright chips increased from 5725 to 5745, an increase of 20.0; chip cash flow increased from 9 to 32, an increase of 23.0 [2]. - Chip sales decreased from 152% to 38%, a decrease of 114% [2]. 4. Device Maintenance - Two PTA plants in South China with a total capacity of 5 million tons have reduced their loads recently due to weather conditions, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

Group 1: Market Data Summary - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a -15.67bp change, DR007 at 1.53 with a -7.04bp change, GC001 at 1.36 with a -13.50bp change, and GC007 at 0.00 with a -187.00bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 0.40bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [4] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.39 (-1.00bp), 1.63 (-0.73bp), and 1.88 (-0.78bp) respectively, while 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.20 with a 2.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 2467.4 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase and 300 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 940.6 billion yuan [4] - This week, 516.6 billion yuan in reverse repurchase will mature, with 240.5 billion and 276.1 billion maturing on Monday and Tuesday respectively, and 300 billion yuan in 182 - day buy - out reverse repurchase maturing on Tuesday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indices: CSI 300 at 4550 (-0.95%), SSE 50 at 2941 (-0.40%), CSI 500 at 7241 (-1.37%), and CSI 1000 at 7398 (-1.45%) [6] - The closing prices and changes of index futures contracts: IF at 4543 (-0.9%), IH at 2945 (-0.3%), IC at 7203 (-1.2%), and IM at 7357 (-1.2%) [6] - Trading volume and open interest changes: IF volume decreased by 9.3% to 121085, IH volume decreased by 6.9% to 48226, IC volume increased by 4.9% to 136035, and IM volume increased by 14.2% to 242990; IF open interest decreased by 2.4% to 259924, IH open interest increased by 1.1% to 95988, IC open interest increased by 1.4% to 252224, and IM open interest increased by 3.3% to 364864 [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 0.44% to 4501.9, SSE 50 fell 1.98% to 2909.7, CSI 500 rose 0.32% to 7170.3, and CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 7438.2; only the power equipment (3.9%) and electronics (3.5%) sectors in the Shenwan primary industry index rose, while banking (-0.5%), non - ferrous metals (-3.5%), non - banking finance (-0.1%), steel (-1.1%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-2%) led the decline [6] - As of September 25, the margin trading balance in the A - share market was 2436.61 billion yuan, an increase of 46.18 billion yuan from the previous week [6] Group 3: Market Outlook and Analysis - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a self - centered approach while considering internal and external balance, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [5] - Recently, the macro news has been calm, and the stock index has been oscillating; due to poor domestic economic data, there is a stronger expectation for policies to promote consumption, stabilize the real estate market, and expand fiscal spending [7] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in October, focusing on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan and analyzing the current economic situation, which is worthy of attention [7] - The stock index trend remains bullish, but the policy aims to guide the A - share market to a "slow - bull" pattern, and it is recommended to adjust and go long, while controlling positions before the holiday [7] Group 4: Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount rates: 0.00% for the current - month contract, 2.62% for the next - month contract, 2.45% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.31% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH premium/discount rates: -2.73% for the current - month contract, -0.50% for the next - month contract, -0.51% for the current - quarter contract, and -0.04% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC premium/discount rates: 10.16% for the current - month contract, 9.81% for the next - month contract, 9.89% for the current - quarter contract, and 9.76% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM premium/discount rates: 10.54% for the current - month contract, 11.55% for the next - month contract, 12.54% for the current - quarter contract, and 12.13% for the next - quarter contract [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating bearish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic butadiene market has weakened slightly. Butadiene rubber is affected by macro - sentiment, and the market's attempt to support prices has been hindered. Under the pressure of high inventory and high production, the synthetic rubber market is viewed with a bearish attitude in the short - term. In terms of valuation, the correlation between the BR futures and NR has increased, showing stronger rubber - related attributes [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - During the reporting period, the prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and major sales companies of PetroChina remained stable. As of September 25, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The temporary shutdown of Shandong Yihua's butadiene rubber plant due to a malfunction did not boost the supply in the short - term as the overall supply of private spot resources was sufficient, and there was an expectation of concentrated restart of maintenance plants at the end of September. The increase in external supply of butadiene led to a decline in the transaction center, and the cost side also lacked driving force. Although the mainstream supply price of butadiene rubber was lowered at the end of the previous period, the price centers of arbitrage resources and private resources in the first and middle of the week were still significantly lower than the spot cost of the two - oil resources. Some industry players were still waiting for a further decline in the mainstream supply price. In the middle and late weeks, the supply of low - priced arbitrage resources decreased, and the price gap between high - end and low - end spot narrowed slightly. As the pre - holiday stocking was coming to an end, downstream buyers continued to purchase on dips [3] 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 103,000 tons (-1.91%), and the capacity utilization rate was 66.3%. Devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Dongming Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical Phase I, Fushun Petrochemical, and Fujian Refining & Petrochemical's No.1 unit remained shut down, and production continued to decline [2] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The butadiene rubber plants of Shandong Weite, Taiyo - Yuubu, and Haopu New Materials continued maintenance. Shandong Yihua's plant was shut down temporarily due to a malfunction. The production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased [2] 3.2.2 Demand - **Semi - steel Tires**: During the period, the market trading was dull. In some regions, the sales of all - season tires were weak, the social inventory was sufficient and the consumption was slow, so agents were not active in purchasing. For the snow - tire market, product promotion meetings of various brands were held one after another, and the channel inventory was relatively sufficient. Future attention should be paid to the terminal demand [2] - **All - steel Tires**: During the period, the market trading was average, mainly for regular sales, and the transaction price was stable. There was no obvious pre - holiday stocking, and the inventory was mainly consumed during the period. It is expected that the market stocking volume will increase significantly in the next period [2] 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 277,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.13%. Some devices continued to operate at reduced capacity, the refinery inventory decreased, and the suppliers sold more goods before the holiday, so the inventory remained at a relatively low level. The port inventory increased significantly due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels during the week, but there was no obvious short - term inventory pressure [2] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 32,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.21%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] 3.4 Price and Spread Analysis - **Price**: The prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of major enterprises remained stable during the period, but most prices showed a week - on - week downward trend. For example, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's North China Qilu, North China Yanshan, East China Yangzi, and South China Maoming decreased by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week [7][8] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread was 4,040 yuan/ton (-1.22%); the NR - BR spread was 1,005 yuan/ton (+17.54%); the BR - SC price ratio was - 0.12% [2] 3.5 Profit Analysis - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation of butene was 186 yuan/ton, and the production profit through C4 extraction was 1,861.1 yuan/ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber was - 225 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate was - 1.89% [2] 3.6 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - On September 25 local time, US President Trump announced on his social media platform that a 25% tariff would be imposed on all imported heavy - duty trucks starting from October 1. The crude oil market is in a range - bound game due to geopolitical factors, sanctions, and the expected oversupply in the fundamentals caused by OPEC+ production increases. The US non - farm payroll data for August was lower than market expectations, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, with two more interest rate cuts expected within the year, with a total cut of 50bp or more. Geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East are frequently disturbed in the short - term and show a tense trend [2] 3.7 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Oscillating upward - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical factors [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market experienced a significant downturn in the second half of 2025, mainly due to the rise of the equity market and commodities, as well as institutional behavior adjustments. However, in the fourth quarter, the bond market is expected to recover, supported by the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies and the relatively friendly monetary environment [2][37][47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Sharp Decline of Bond Futures in the Second Half of the Year - In 2025, the Treasury bond futures market was extremely volatile, with five distinct stages. From July onwards, all maturities of Treasury bond futures declined from their highs, and there was no obvious sign of stabilization in the short term. For example, the TL main contract dropped by more than 6% [3]. 3.2. Correction of Premature Pricing 3.2.1. Dominance of the Game between Institutions and the Central Bank - In the first half of the year, the market continued the bullish trend since November 2024. After the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, the market anticipated interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in advance, leading to a rapid decline in bond yields. However, the Central Bank took measures to cool down the market, including strict supervision, tightening of the capital market, and policy implementation, which weakened the bullish sentiment [11][12]. 3.2.2. Asset Rotation and Increased Risk Appetite - **Commodity Market**: In July, the anti - involution policy promoted the rise of certain commodities such as lithium carbonate, polysilicon, coking coal, and coke. The policy was later adjusted, and the enthusiasm in the commodity market subsided [20][24]. - **Equity Market**: Driven by factors such as technological innovation narratives and policy reforms, the domestic stock market had a strong bullish trend from July to September. Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and CSI 300 all had significant increases, attracting funds from the bond market [28]. - **Institutional Behavior**: The revision of the regulations on public - offering fund sales fees and the possible cancellation of tax exemptions for public - offering fund dividends affected institutional behavior. Although there was some short - term panic selling, the long - term impact on the market structure was limited [34]. 3.3. Expected Recovery of the Bond Market in the Fourth Quarter - **Insufficient Attractiveness of Bond Yields**: In the past two years, the decline in bond yields was supported by the fundamental situation and the asset shortage environment. However, this year, the emergence of the equity market and the commodity market's bullish trends has led to a diversion of funds from the bond market [37]. - **Fundamentals as the Anchor**: The main negative factor for the bond market is the diversion of funds to risk assets. Although the short - term impact of asset linkage on the bond market is magnified, the market deviation will eventually be corrected. The monetary policy is expected to remain relatively loose, which is beneficial to the bond market [40]. - **Synergistic Efforts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will cooperate more closely to improve the effectiveness of macro - policies. Considering the current economic situation, the fundamentals are still favorable for the bond market, and the bond market is expected to recover in the fourth quarter [46][47].