Group 1: Report's Core View - The sentiment of commodities has improved, domestic PTA production capacity supply has contracted, and PTA port inventories have declined, with a large number of warehouse receipts being cancelled [2]. - The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90 [2]. - In July, bottle chips and short fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. The port inventory in the market has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved when the basis weakens. The basis of PTA has recovered from 0 to 30 [2]. - The maintenance of Northeast PX plants and Zhejiang reforming units has been postponed. The early maintenance of mainstream PTA plants has significantly boosted the market [2]. Group 2: Data Summary Price and Spread - PTA spot price increased from 4830 to 4860, PTA closing price rose from 4838 to 4856, MEG domestic price went up from 4510 to 4527, and MEG closing price dropped from 4467 to 4450 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price remained at 6665, short - fiber basis increased from 109 to 119, and 8 - 9 spread decreased from 44 to 48 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price stayed at 5750, and the spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber remained at 915 [2]. - The price of East China water bottle chips increased from 6003 to 6011, hot - filled polyester bottle chips price rose from 6003 to 6011, and carbonated - grade polyester bottle chips price went up from 6103 to 6111 [2]. - The price of outer - market water bottle chips increased from 790 to 795, bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 363 to 339, T32S pure polyester yarn price remained at 10350, and T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee stayed at 3685 [2]. - The price of polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S remained at 16300, cotton 328 price dropped from 15165 to 14950, and polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1149 to 1230 [2]. - The price of virgin three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) remained at 7070, the cash flow of hollow short fiber 6 - 15D decreased from 230 to 198, and the price of virgin low - melting - point short fiber stayed at 7370 [2]. Load and Production and Sales - The direct - spun short - fiber load decreased from 92.30% to 93.00%, polyester short - fiber production and sales decreased from 54.00% to 43.00%, and the polyester yarn startup rate decreased from 66.00% to 65.00% [3]. - The recycled cotton - type load index decreased from 51.50% to 46.00% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On the 30th, the prices of glass and soda ash rose and then fell [2]. - The recent significant price fluctuations of glass and soda ash are the result of intense industry - capital games. The previous upward movement was mainly affected by their own supply disruptions and coal supply disruption expectations. The market has been trading on the anti - involution logic, with strong bullish sentiment in commodities, and the futures prices of glass and soda ash have risen significantly due to supply and cost increases [2]. - In the short term, glass and soda ash are still affected by market sentiment, with intense capital games. The fundamentals are still not ideal, and the near - month contracts may face delivery pressure as their spot attributes increase. However, under strong expectations, the prices are likely to be pushed up by capital. Industrial customers can focus on spot - futures positive arbitrage, and investment customers can focus on long positions in far - month contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price Information | Contract | 1 - month | 5 - month | 9 - month | 1 - month | 5 - month (Soda Ash) | 9 - month (Soda Ash) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Closing Price | 1320 | 1388 | 1191 | 1394 | 1452 | 1311 | | Change | 7 | 20 | 3.04 | - 13 | 5 | - 7 | | Change Percentage | 0.53% | 1.46% | 0.25% | - 0.92% | 0.35% | - 0.53% | | Spread Closing Price (e.g., 5 - 9 month) | - 68 | 197 | - 129 | - 58 | 141 | - 83 | | Spread Change | - 13 | 17 | - 4 | - 18 | 2 | 6 | [1] Spot Price Information | Region | Spot Price (Glass) | Spot Price (Soda Ash) | | --- | --- | --- | | East China | 1250 | 1400 | | South | 1320 | - | | Northwest | 1020 | - | | - | - | 1350 | [1] Basis Information | Region | Glass Basis | Soda Ash Basis | | --- | --- | --- | | - | 59 | 89 | | East China | 119 | 39 | | South | 129 | - | | Northwest | - 291 | - | [1]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market has improved, the supply of domestic PTA production capacity has contracted, the port inventory of PTA has declined, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, and the profitability of alkyl transfer and TDP is not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90. Bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle in July. The market port inventory is being depleted, and polyester replenishment has improved with the weakening of the basis. The basis of PTA has rebounded from 0 to 30. The maintenance of Northeast PX plants and Zhejiang reforming units has been postponed. The early maintenance of mainstream PTA factories has significantly boosted the market [2]. - The coal price has rebounded, leading to an increase in the price of ethylene glycol (MEG). The macro - sentiment has clearly improved, and the chemical industry has followed the warming sentiment of commodities. The maintenance of overseas MEG plants, especially Saudi Arabian ones, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the future market and has been boosting the price of MEG. The future arrival volume of MEG is expected to decrease. The polyester production and sales have weakened, and polyester has entered the maintenance cycle. Due to the rapid increase in polyester prices, the profit of downstream weaving has shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Summary by Directory Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price increased from 515.0 yuan/barrel on July 29, 2025, to 528.6 yuan/barrel on July 30, 2025, with a change of 13.60 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased from 1095.4 yuan/ton to 1014.6 yuan/ton, a change of - 80.83 yuan/ton; PTA/SC decreased from 1.2927 to 1.2641, a change of - 0.0286; CFR China PX increased from 857 to 866, a change of 9; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 279 to 277, a change of - 2; PTA主力期价 increased from 4838 yuan/ton to 4856 yuan/ton, a change of 18.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 increased from 4830 yuan/ton to 4860 yuan/ton, a change of 30.0 yuan/ton; 现货加工费 decreased from 213.3 yuan/ton to 179.3 yuan/ton, a change of - 34.0 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 decreased from 211.3 yuan/ton to 185.3 yuan/ton, a change of - 26.0 yuan/ton; 主力基差 decreased from (5) to (10), a change of - 5.0; PTA仓单数量 decreased from 30740 to 29738, a change of - 1002 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 4467 yuan/ton to 4450 yuan/ton, a change of - 17.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (97.29) to (96.48), a change of 0.8; MEG内盘 increased from 4510 to 4527, a change of 17.0; 主力基差 decreased from 63 to 60, a change of - 3.0 [2]. - **Industrial Chain开工情况**: PX开工率 remained unchanged at 77.29%; PTA开工率 decreased from 80.59% to 79.45%, a change of - 1.14%; MEG开工率 remained unchanged at 58.13%; 聚酯负荷 remained unchanged at 86.28% [2]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F increased from 6720 to 6760, a change of 40.0; POY现金流 increased from (171) to (162), a change of 9.0; FDY150D/96F increased from 7015 to 7060, a change of 45.0; FDY现金流 increased from (376) to (362), a change of 14.0; DTY150D/48F increased from 7910 to 7955, a change of 45.0; DTY现金流 increased from (181) to (167), a change of 14.0; 长丝产销 increased from 33% to 110%, a change of 77%; 1.4D直纺涤短 remained unchanged at 6665; 涤短现金流 decreased from 124 to 93, a change of - 31.0; 短纤产销 decreased from 53% to 42%, a change of - 11%; 半光切片 increased from 5885 to 5920, a change of 35.0; 切片现金流 increased from (106) to (102), a change of 4.0; 切片产销 increased from 68% to 89%, a change of 21% [2]. Device Maintenance - An East - China supplier's 7.2 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on the raw material logistics situation [2].

| | | | | 国留期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 农产品研究中心一段 | 即 > 杨璐琳 | 从业资格号:F3042528 | 2025/07/3 | | | 地区 | 2025/07/30 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水(修改后) | 与2509基差 | 涨跌值 | | | 河南 | 13.98 | 0.04 | 0 - 1 | -95 | 115 | | | 湖南 | 13.91 2 | 0 | 100 | -265 >> | 75 | | | 湖北 | 13.75 | 0.03 012 | 0 | -325 | +0 105 | | | 安徽 | 14. 04 | 0.04 | 300 | -335 | 115 | | | 江西 | 14. 22 | 0 | 2100 | 45 | 75 | | | 山西 | 13.77 | -0. 02 | -400 | 95 | 55 | | | 山东 | 14. 06 | 0 | 0 | -15 | 75 | | | 河北 | 14. 02 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market of shipping derivatives shows a pattern of mixed trends with some indices declining and some contracts rising. The spot price of shipping is expected to peak at the end of July and gradually decline, and the 10 - contract focuses on the decline slope of freight rates from August to October. The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [5][6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1647, 1304, 2142, 1301, 3612, and 2079 respectively, with previous values of 1699, 1348, 2219, 1318, 3862, and 2068 respectively, and the corresponding percentage changes are - 3.30%, - 3.23%, - 3.50%, - 1.31%, - 6.48%, and 0.53%. The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 2316 and 2418 respectively, with previous values of 2400 and 2528 respectively, and the percentage changes are - 3.50% and - 4.35% [3] Contracts - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1514.2, 2139.0, 1468.7, 1738.0, 1532.0, and 1386.1 respectively, with previous values of 1504.9, 2111.0, 1460.0, 1735.0, 1521.3, and 1370.0 respectively, and the percentage changes are 0.62%, 1.33%, 0.60%, 0.17%, 0.70%, and 1.18%. The current values of EC2606, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 positions are 776, 5597, 54874, 8505, 4301, and 5267 respectively, with previous values of 762, 5926, 50726, 8131, 4328, and 5107 respectively, and the changes are 14, - 329, 4148, 374, - 27, and 160 [3] Month - Spread - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The current values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 month - spreads are - 269.3, 206.0, and 351.9 respectively, with previous values of - 275.0, 213.7, and 365.0 respectively, and the changes are 5.7, - 7.7, and - 13.1 [3] Market Situation - **Market Trend**: The market shows a pattern of mixed trends. The near - month contracts are affected by the continuous decline of the shipping company's price opening in early August, and the US - China and EU - China tariff talks may provide emotional support. The 08 contract had a limit - down opening on Wednesday morning, possibly due to the exchange's forced liquidation of over - position parts. On Thursday, the near - month contracts were strong due to the 90 - day extension of the US - China tariff negotiation [5] Spot Price - **Price Forecast**: The spot price is basically confirmed to peak at the end of July. The shipping company's price opening in early August continues the price in late July but gradually decreases. The shipping demand and loading rate at the end of July are good, but the high capacity deployment in early August weakens the effect of building a stockpiling pool. It is expected that the spot price will peak at the end of July and early August, then decline slowly until late August, after which the decline slope will increase [6] Strategy - **Investment Strategy**: Short the 10 - contract on rallies (take profit as it has pulled back recently) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is in a weak oscillation. Short - term commodity market sentiment has cooled, and the cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Myanmar on the border conflict has been reached. Rubber may return to a weak performance. It is recommended to short on rallies for single - side trading [4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Disk - In the domestic market, RU主力 decreased from 15065 to 15010, NR主力 dropped from 12810 to 12670, and BR主力 fell from 11955 to 11835. In the overseas market, Tocom RSS3 decreased from 326.8 to 322.9 (yen/kilogram), and Sicom TF remained unchanged at 173.7 (cents/kilogram) [3] Futures Spreads - For inter - period spreads, RU2601 - RU2509 increased from 780 to 785, RU2605 - RU2601 rose from 125 to 135, NR主力 - 次主力 decreased from 30 to - 20, and BR主力 - 次主力 dropped from 35 to 30. For cross - variety spreads, RU - NR increased from 2255 to 2340, RU - BR rose from 3110 to 3175, and NR - BR decreased from 855 to 835. For cross - market spreads, RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) increased from - 100 to - 82, and NR - Sicom TF ($) decreased from 49 to 28 [3] Raw Material Prices - In Thailand (in Thai baht per kilogram), the price of raw rubber sheets decreased from 63.11 to 62.01, glue increased from 55.30 to 55.50, and cup rubber decreased from 50.00 to 49.35. In Hainan and Yunnan (in yuan per ton), the prices of Hainan and Yunnan glue for concentrated latex and whole milk remained unchanged [3] Factory Costs and Profits - The delivery profit of whole - milk latex decreased in Hainan and Yunnan. The production profit of concentrated latex increased in Thailand. The profit of smoke - sheet rubber and 20 - grade rubber decreased in Thailand. The profit of synthetic rubber decreased for some varieties [3] Domestic Spot - The prices of light - colored rubber, dark - colored rubber, latex, synthetic rubber, and mixed rubber decreased for most varieties. The prices of some varieties such as domestic 9710 and Shanghai Hainan bulk latex remained unchanged [3] Futures - Spot Spreads - For RU spreads, RU - 泰混 increased from 365 to 410, RU - 老全乳 decreased from 15 to 10, and RU - 越南3L increased from 15 to 60. For NR spreads, NR - 泰标交割利润 decreased from - 343 to - 358, NR - 印标交割利润 decreased from 231 to 145, and NR - 马标交割利润 decreased from - 307 to - 322 [3] Spot Spreads - For variety spreads, 泰标 - 泰混 ($) remained unchanged at 10, 越南3L - 泰混 remained unchanged at 350, and 国产标二 - 泰混 increased from - 850 to - 750. The difference between old whole - milk latex and Vietnamese 3L increased from 0 to 50, and the difference between domestic 9710 and Thai - mixed rubber increased from - 350 to - 250 [3] Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index remained unchanged at 98.6694. The US dollar/Chinese yuan increased from 7.1467 to 7.1511. SHIBOR - overnight decreased from 1.467 to 1.366, and SHIBOR - seven - day decreased from 1.596 to 1.545 [3] Supply, Inventory, and Demand - In terms of supply, the prices of raw materials in Thailand changed. In terms of inventory, as of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade increased by 0.6 million tons, with a growth rate of 0.91%. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises increased by 0.87 percentage points month - on - month and 3.92 percentage points year - on - year, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased by 2.34 percentage points month - on - month and decreased by 11.96 percentage points year - on - year [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the context of the expected high yield of new cotton crops and the reality of the shortage of old - crop inventories, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is prominent. From late July to early August is a window period for multiple policies and industry events. The content of domestic policy meetings, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, the actualization of the high yield of new cotton, whether the import sliding - duty quota will be increased and the magnitude of the increase all have a significant impact on the Zhengzhou cotton outlook, especially the increase of the import sliding - duty quota has a greater impact on the supply - demand of old crops and near - term contracts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Items Domestic Cotton Futures - On July 29, CF01 was 14025, down 40 or - 0.28% from July 28; CF09 was 13925, down 150 or - 1.07% from July 28; CF09 - 01 was - 100, down 110 from July 28 [3]. Domestic Cotton Spot - On July 29, the price in Xinjiang was 15431, down 42 or - 0.27% from July 28; in Henan it was 15634, down 46 or - 0.29%; in Shandong it was 15562, down 48 or - 0.31%. The Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1506, up 108 from July 28 [3]. Domestic Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot - On July 29, the domestic cotton yarn futures CY was 19995, down 240 or - 1.19% from July 28. The C32S price index of domestic cotton yarn spot was 20720, down 60 or - 0.29% from July 28 [3]. US Cotton Spot - On July 29, the CT price was 68 USD/ pound, unchanged from July 28. The arrival price was 77.60, up 0.1 or 0.13% from July 28. The 1% quota pick - up price was 13715, up 17 or 0.12% from July 28. The sliding - duty pick - up price was 14425, up 5 or 0.03% from July 28 [3]. Spread Data - On July 29, the yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 5970, down 200 from July 28; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 710, down 12 from July 28; the domestic - foreign spread (spot) was 1847, down 65 from July 28 [3].

Market Review - The closing prices of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 2808.5917, 4152.0247, and 6773.8843 respectively, with increases of 0.21%, 0.39%, and 0.65% [4]. - The trading volumes of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 47.05 billion, 230.81 billion, and 259.26 billion respectively, and the trading turnovers were 1119.54 billion yuan, 4287.64 billion yuan, and 3837.04 billion yuan respectively [4]. CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading - For the Shanghai 50 index, the option trading volume was 2.62 million contracts (1.82 million for call options and 0.81 million for put options), with a PCR of 0.44. The option open interest was 7.05 million contracts (4.53 million for call options and 2.52 million for put options), with a PCR of 0.56 [4]. - For the CSI 300 index, the option trading volume was 7.11 million contracts (4.50 million for call options and 2.62 million for put options), with a PCR of 0.58. The option open interest was 19.17 million contracts (11.10 million for call options and 8.07 million for put options), with a PCR of 0.73 [4]. - For the CSI 1000 index, the option trading volume was 18.15 million contracts (10.00 million for call options and 8.15 million for put options), with a PCR of 0.81. The option open interest was 25.33 million contracts (12.87 million for call options and 12.46 million for put options), with a PCR of 0.97 [4]. Volatility Analysis - The historical volatility and next - month at - the - money implied volatility of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were analyzed, including the maximum, minimum, percentile values, and the volatility smile curve [8][10][13] Overall Market Situation - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% to 3609.71 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.64%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.86%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.68%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 1.45%, the Wind All - A rose 0.45%, and the Wind A500 rose 0.43%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.5% [13]. - The A - share trading turnover for the day was 1.83 trillion yuan, compared with 1.77 trillion yuan the previous day [13]

Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on sugar, covering domestic and international market data and analysis [2][3][4] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Internationally, Brazil's sugar production decline in the second half of June exceeded expectations. If the sugar - alcohol ratio continues to decrease, Brazil's sugar output may fall short of expectations [4] - Domestically, market demand is weak. Low inventory supports Guangxi's spot prices, but the entry of processed sugar into the market is putting pressure on prices. Considering the expected increase in imports, the domestic supply - demand situation is expected to gradually ease, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound [4] Data Summary Domestic Spot Prices - In Guangxi, the price in Nanning Warehouse is 6120 yuan/ton, with no change; in Yunnan, the price in Kunming is 5915 yuan/ton, in Dali is 5800 yuan/ton, both unchanged; in Shandong, the price in Rizhao is 6135 yuan/ton, also unchanged [3] Futures Prices - SR09 is 5867 yuan/ton, up 22; SR01 is 5731 yuan/ton, up 29; SR09 - 01 is 136, down 7 [3] Exchange Rates and International Futures - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate is 7.1975, up 0.0120; the Brazilian real - RMB exchange rate is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the Indian rupee - RMB exchange rate is 0.084, down 0.0004 [3] - The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.43, unchanged; the London white sugar主力 is 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 is 69.6, unchanged [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium - to long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - On July 29, 2025, prices of晋城无烟煤, 内蒙动力煤, 川渝液化气, 内蒙 methanol, 中国 methanol, 东南亚 methanol, 西北欧 methanol, and 美国 methanol remained unchanged compared to July 28, 2025. The price of 山东 methanol decreased by 40 to 2260, and the price of international natural gas in Taicang dropped by 0.03 to 10.99, while its volume increased by 5 to 2390. The price of 冰蜡酸 increased by 60 to 2250, and the price of MTBE decreased by 30 to 4950 [1] Supply - On July 29, 2025, domestic methanol production increased by 500 to 278185, domestic methanol operating rate rose by 0.15 to 86.12, and international methanol operating rate decreased by 1.92 to 69.71 compared to July 28, 2025. The arrival volume at the port remained unchanged at 43.04 [1] Inventory - On July 29, 2025, both enterprise inventory and port inventory of methanol remained unchanged at 352340 and 790200 respectively compared to July 28, 2025 [1] Demand - On July 29, 2025, the order backlog of methanol remained unchanged at 243119 compared to July 28, 2025. The operating rates of MTO, 二甲醚, 甲醛, 醋酸, 氯化物, and MTBE all remained unchanged [1] Associated Product Prices - On July 29, 2025, the price of 甲醛(山东) and 二甲醚 remained unchanged, the price of 冰蜡酸 increased by 60 to 2250, the price of 甲烷氯化物 remained unchanged, and the price of MTBE decreased by 30 to 4950 compared to July 28, 2025 [1]