Market Review - The closing price of the Shanghai 50 Index was 2775.9935, down 1.54%, with a trading volume of 61.52 billion and a turnover of 131.852 billion yuan; the closing price of the CSI 300 Index was 4075.5912, down 1.82%, with a trading volume of 267.09 billion and a turnover of 492.143 billion yuan; the closing price of the CSI 1000 Index was 6661.1862, down 0.85%, with a trading volume of 270.14 billion and a turnover of 401.822 billion yuan [4] - The trading volume of Shanghai 50 index options was 5.68 million contracts, including 3.59 million call options and 2.09 million put options, with a PCR of 0.58 and an open interest of 7.13 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 14.43 million contracts, including 8.40 million call options and 6.03 million put options, with a PCR of 0.72 and an open interest of 19.96 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 1000 index options was 27.99 million contracts, including 14.89 million call options and 13.10 million put options, with a PCR of 0.88 and an open interest of 26.81 million contracts [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.18% to 3573.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.73%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index fell 1.16%, the STAR 50 Index fell 1.01%, the Wind All - A Index fell 1.36%, the Wind A500 Index fell 1.89%, and the CSI A500 Index fell 1.75%. The A - share trading volume for the day was 1.96 trillion yuan, compared with 1.87 trillion yuan the previous day [10] Volatility Analysis - Conducted historical volatility analysis and next - month at - the - money implied volatility analysis on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, and presented the volatility smile curves [8][9][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core View of the Report - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on July 30 pointed out the need to deepen reforms, promote the development of new - quality productivity through scientific and technological innovation, and optimize market competition order. It also mentioned governing disorderly competition among enterprises and promoting capacity governance in key industries. The market sentiment may cool down due to the Politburo's stance on anti - involution and "low - price" expressions. In the short term, although downstream stocking is significant, downstream production scheduling has not increased, and the actual consumption of inventory is limited. There is a possibility of capital re - entry, and prices are expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation. Industrial players can consider hedging on price rallies [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 72,000 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan [1]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 69,900 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan [1]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Lithium Compound Futures - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 68,000 yuan/ton, down 4.87% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 68,280 yuan/ton, down 4.66% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 68,440 yuan/ton, down 4.01% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 68,600 yuan/ton, down 3.98% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 69,120 yuan/ton, down 3.46% [1]. Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 766 yuan, down 10 yuan [1]. - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,120 yuan, down 20 yuan [2]. - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,750 yuan, down 25 yuan [2]. - The price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 5,325 yuan, down 350 yuan [2]. - The price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 6,250 yuan, down 375 yuan [2]. Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,885 yuan, down 305 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,130 yuan, up 90 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,895 yuan, down 100 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,455 yuan, up 80 yuan [2]. Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 3,720 yuan, an increase of 1,370 yuan [2]. - The price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 280 yuan, an increase of 60 yuan [2]. - The price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 440 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 141,726 tons, down 1,444 tons [2]. - The inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 51,958 tons, down 3,427 tons [2]. - The inventory of downstream enterprises (weekly, tons) is 45,888 tons, up 3,073 tons [2]. - The inventory of other sectors (weekly, tons) is 43,880 tons, down 1,090 tons [2]. - The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 5,545 tons, down 6,731 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 68,893 yuan, and the profit is 7,621 yuan [3]. - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is not clearly stated, and the profit is - 7,136 yuan [3].

| | | | | | | | 日本市政府市政府 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/07/31 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | | Z0020036 董子勖 F03094002 | | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 F03117750 Z0022680 | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 | 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | 7000 | | | 1000 | | | (元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17% to 3615.72 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77%, the ChiNext Index dropped 1.62%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 declined 1.75%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 1.11%, the Wind All A decreased 0.4%, the Wind A500 dropped 0.15%, and the CSI A500 declined 0.22% [11]. - A - share trading volume reached 1.87 trillion yuan throughout the day, compared with 1.83 trillion yuan the previous day [11]. 2. Index Quotes | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Turnover (Billion Yuan) | Trading Volume (Billion) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2819.3508 | 0.38 | 1125.97 | 52.19 | | CSI 300 | 4151.2379 | - 0.02 | 4451.68 | 249.85 | | CSI 1000 | 6718.4819 | - 0.82 | 3926.75 | 268.18 | [4] 3. CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading | Index | Option Trading Volume (10,000 Contracts) | | | Option Open Interest (10,000 Contracts) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Put Options | Call Options | PCR | | Call Options | Put Options | PCR | | SSE 50 | 1.91 | 3.71 | 0.51 | 6.82 | 4.29 | 2.53 | 0.59 | | CSI 300 | 4.83 | 7.58 | 0.64 | 19.26 | 10.95 | 8.31 | 0.76 | | CSI 1000 | 11.22 | 13.69 | 0.82 | 26.13 | 13.49 | 12.65 | 0.94 | [4] 4. Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility chains and next - month at - the - money implied volatility and volatility smile curves for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 [8][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium to long term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - On July 30, 2025, the price of Sichuan and Chongqing liquefied gas increased by 107 to 4450, international natural gas increased by 0.35 to 11.34, Taicang methanol increased by 10 to 2400, and Shandong methanol increased by 30 to 2290. The prices of MTBE increased by 50 to 5000. Other products' prices remained unchanged [1] Supply - On July 30, 2025, domestic methanol production decreased by 1500 to 276685, and domestic methanol operation rate decreased by 0.46 to 85.66. International operation rate remained unchanged at 69.71 [1] Inventory - On July 30, 2025, the arrival volume at the port, enterprise inventory, and port inventory of methanol remained unchanged, at 17.38, 339830, and 725800 respectively [1] Demand - On July 30, 2025, the order backlog of methanol remained unchanged at 244832 [1] Cost - On July 30, 2025, the cost of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol increased by 4.2 to 1881.5, Shandong coal - based methanol increased by 4.2 to 2131.5, and Shanxi coal - based methanol increased by 4.6 to 1984.5. Other products' costs remained unchanged [1] Operating Rate - On July 30, 2025, the operating rates of various methanol downstream products remained unchanged, with the MTO operating rate at 84.95, dimethyl ether at 5.19, formaldehyde at 37.19, wax fragrance at 92.69, chloride at 75.79, and MTBE at 69.01 [1] Associated Product Prices - On July 30, 2025, the prices of formaldehyde (Shandong), dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and methane chloride remained unchanged, at 925, 3330, 2250, and 2060 respectively. The price of MTBE increased by 50 to 5000 [1]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The central bank increased reverse repurchase operations to stabilize inter - bank market funds as the funds tightened recently, and there will be 1656.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market this week [3][4]. - After consecutive strong rallies, with the phased realization of macro - level positive factors, the upward speed of stock index futures may slow down, and market fluctuations and adjustments should be watched out for [6]. 2. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.32%, down 4.80bp; DR007 at 1.52%, down 4.67bp; GC001 at 1.78%, up 12.00bp; GC007 at 1.63%, down 5.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.56%, up 0.40bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury at 1.38%, down 2.00bp; 5 - year treasury at 1.58%, down 2.50bp; 10 - year treasury at 1.72%, down 3.05bp; 10 - year US treasury at 4.34%, down 8.00bp [3]. - **Reverse Repurchase**: The central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday, with 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan [3]. 2.2 Stock Index Futures - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4151, down 0.02%; the SSE 50 at 2819, up 0.38%; the CSI 500 at 6315, down 0.65%; the CSI 1000 at 6718, down 0.82%. IF当月 closed at 4147, down 0.1%; IH当月 at 2821, up 0.3%; IC当月 at 6271, down 0.7%; IM当月 at 6676, down 0.8% [5][6]. - **Volume and Open Interest Changes**: IF volume increased by 41.3% to 138031, and open interest increased by 5.9% to 274703; IH volume increased by 53.7% to 70949, and open interest increased by 9.0% to 103281; IC volume increased by 19.5% to 105254, and open interest increased by 2.3% to 229923; IM volume increased by 22.7% to 231279, and open interest increased by 5.0% to 346497 [5]. 2.3 Stock Index Futures Premium/Discount - **IF**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 2.33%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and 2.90% respectively [7]. - **IH**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are - 1.66%, - 0.16%, - 0.08%, and - 0.12% respectively [7]. - **IC**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 15.71%, 11.25%, 9.59%, and 8.92% respectively [7]. - **IM**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 14.56%, 12.17%, 11.60%, and 10.93% respectively [7]. 3. Market Review - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.8443 trillion yuan, an increase of 41.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day. Industry sectors had more decliners than gainers, with the mining, shipbuilding, tourism and hotel, food and beverage, and commercial department store sectors leading the gains, while the battery, diversified finance, small metals, engineering machinery, and power supply equipment sectors leading the losses [6]. 4. Market Hot News - This week, 1.6563 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 170.7 billion, 214.8 billion, 150.5 billion, 331 billion, and 789.3 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4]. - After the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, China's Ministry of Commerce stated that both sides will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. The Politburo meeting released little incremental information, emphasizing policy continuity, stability, flexibility, and predictability, and promoting the governance of non - competitive behavior in enterprises and over - capacity in key industries [6].

| | | | | | | | 日本市政府市政府 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/07/31 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | | Z0020036 董子勖 F03094002 | | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 F03117750 Z0022680 | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 | 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | 7000 | | | 1000 | | | (元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to the resumption of Sino - US economic and trade meetings, mild market risk - aversion demand, unexpectedly strong growth of the US Q2 GDP, rebound of core PCE, and the largest increase in ADP employment in July since March, the US dollar index and Treasury yields are boosted, suppressing precious metal prices. Gold has fallen below the $3300/ounce mark since July 1st. As the tariff situation becomes clear and a series of important US data are released, for gold, it is advisable to gradually buy at low prices and lay out long - term positions; for silver, affected by the fading of the commodity rally sentiment, it may fluctuate in the short - term and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - In the long - term, there is still a certain probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying major - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, central banks' gold purchases continue, so the medium - and long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On July 30, 2025, compared with July 29, London gold spot rose 0.3% to $3326.07/ounce, London silver spot fell 0.1% to $38.04/ounce, COMEX gold rose 2.0% to $3380.50/ounce, COMEX silver fell 0.2% to $38.15/ounce, AU2510 rose 0.3% to 773.78 yuan/gram, AG2510 remained unchanged at 9192 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 0.2% to 769.42 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) fell 0.1% to 9158 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Spread and Ratio**: On July 30, 2025, compared with July 29, the spread of gold between domestic and foreign markets (TD - London) was - 4.36 yuan/gram (up 13.0%), the spread of silver between domestic and foreign markets (TD - London) was - 34 yuan/kilogram (up 25.9%), the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was 5.46 yuan/gram (up 11.4%), the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 634 yuan/kilogram (down 0.7%), the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 84.18 (up 0.3%), the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 88.61 (up 2.2%), AU2512 - 2510 was 1.98 yuan/gram (down 8.3%), and AG2512 - 2510 was 21 yuan/kilogram (up 5.0%) [3]. Position Data - As of July 22, 2025 (weekly data), compared with July 28, on July 29, the gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 956.23 tons, the silver ETF - SLV rose 0.09% to 15173.91673 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold rose 15.44% to 311949 contracts, the non - commercial short positions rose 3.15% to 58911 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions rose 18.73% to 253038 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver rose 0.77% to 85678 contracts, the non - commercial short positions fell 2.02% to 25058 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions rose 1.97% to 60620 contracts [3]. Inventory Data - On July 30, 2025, compared with July 29, SHFE gold inventory rose 7.03% to 33462 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory rose 0.27% to 1208094 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.35% to 38166532 ounces, and COMEX silver inventory rose 0.12% to 502296559 ounces [3]. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - On July 30, 2025, compared with July 29, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate fell 0.10% to 7.14, the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 98.92, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.28% to 3.86%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.81% to 4.34%, the VIX rose 6.32% to 15.98, the S&P 500 fell 0.30% to 6370.86, and NYMEX crude oil rose 3.39% to 69.25 [3]. Important News - Sino - US economic and trade talks are held in Stockholm, Sweden, and both sides will continue to promote the extension of the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's Q2 GDP increased 1.4% year - on - year, higher than the expected 1.2% [3]. - The US ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, the largest increase since March, exceeding the market expectation of 75,000 [3]. - Trump said that India will pay 25% tariffs and fines starting from August 1st due to its procurement from Russia [3]. - The preliminary annualized quarterly rate of the US Q2 real GDP was 3.6%, higher than the expected 2.4%; the preliminary annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index was 2.5%, higher than the expected 2.3%; the preliminary rate of real personal consumption expenditure was 1.4%, lower than the expected 1.5% [3]. - The Bank of Canada kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% for the third consecutive time, in line with market expectations [3].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The sentiment of commodities has improved, domestic PTA production capacity supply has contracted, and PTA port inventories have declined, with a large number of warehouse receipts being cancelled [2]. - The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90 [2]. - In July, bottle chips and short fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. The port inventory in the market has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved when the basis weakens. The basis of PTA has recovered from 0 to 30 [2]. - The maintenance of Northeast PX plants and Zhejiang reforming units has been postponed. The early maintenance of mainstream PTA plants has significantly boosted the market [2]. Group 2: Data Summary Price and Spread - PTA spot price increased from 4830 to 4860, PTA closing price rose from 4838 to 4856, MEG domestic price went up from 4510 to 4527, and MEG closing price dropped from 4467 to 4450 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price remained at 6665, short - fiber basis increased from 109 to 119, and 8 - 9 spread decreased from 44 to 48 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price stayed at 5750, and the spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber remained at 915 [2]. - The price of East China water bottle chips increased from 6003 to 6011, hot - filled polyester bottle chips price rose from 6003 to 6011, and carbonated - grade polyester bottle chips price went up from 6103 to 6111 [2]. - The price of outer - market water bottle chips increased from 790 to 795, bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 363 to 339, T32S pure polyester yarn price remained at 10350, and T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee stayed at 3685 [2]. - The price of polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S remained at 16300, cotton 328 price dropped from 15165 to 14950, and polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1149 to 1230 [2]. - The price of virgin three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) remained at 7070, the cash flow of hollow short fiber 6 - 15D decreased from 230 to 198, and the price of virgin low - melting - point short fiber stayed at 7370 [2]. Load and Production and Sales - The direct - spun short - fiber load decreased from 92.30% to 93.00%, polyester short - fiber production and sales decreased from 54.00% to 43.00%, and the polyester yarn startup rate decreased from 66.00% to 65.00% [3]. - The recycled cotton - type load index decreased from 51.50% to 46.00% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On the 30th, the prices of glass and soda ash rose and then fell [2]. - The recent significant price fluctuations of glass and soda ash are the result of intense industry - capital games. The previous upward movement was mainly affected by their own supply disruptions and coal supply disruption expectations. The market has been trading on the anti - involution logic, with strong bullish sentiment in commodities, and the futures prices of glass and soda ash have risen significantly due to supply and cost increases [2]. - In the short term, glass and soda ash are still affected by market sentiment, with intense capital games. The fundamentals are still not ideal, and the near - month contracts may face delivery pressure as their spot attributes increase. However, under strong expectations, the prices are likely to be pushed up by capital. Industrial customers can focus on spot - futures positive arbitrage, and investment customers can focus on long positions in far - month contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price Information | Contract | 1 - month | 5 - month | 9 - month | 1 - month | 5 - month (Soda Ash) | 9 - month (Soda Ash) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Closing Price | 1320 | 1388 | 1191 | 1394 | 1452 | 1311 | | Change | 7 | 20 | 3.04 | - 13 | 5 | - 7 | | Change Percentage | 0.53% | 1.46% | 0.25% | - 0.92% | 0.35% | - 0.53% | | Spread Closing Price (e.g., 5 - 9 month) | - 68 | 197 | - 129 | - 58 | 141 | - 83 | | Spread Change | - 13 | 17 | - 4 | - 18 | 2 | 6 | [1] Spot Price Information | Region | Spot Price (Glass) | Spot Price (Soda Ash) | | --- | --- | --- | | East China | 1250 | 1400 | | South | 1320 | - | | Northwest | 1020 | - | | - | - | 1350 | [1] Basis Information | Region | Glass Basis | Soda Ash Basis | | --- | --- | --- | | - | 59 | 89 | | East China | 119 | 39 | | South | 129 | - | | Northwest | - 291 | - | [1]