Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current spot market for live pigs is stable but weak. There is an expectation of weight reduction and increased slaughter, and the overall upside for the spot market is limited. The futures market was dragged down by commodities and declined. From June to July, the month - on - month decline in pig slaughter was mainly due to the slowdown in slaughter caused by winter piglet losses. Group farms stopped large - scale weight reduction this month, while the weight of individual farmers continued to increase steadily. This week, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 128.48 kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27% and a year - on - year increase of 2.46%. Piglet prices changed little compared with last week. Pig inventory will gradually increase in the second half of this year. Near - term contracts may follow the spot market, and long - term contracts should focus on weight reduction and consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Pig Price Data - **Regional Spot Prices**: On July 29, 2025, the pig prices in various regions were as follows: Henan 13.94 yuan/kg (-0.06), Hunan 13.912 yuan/kg (-0.05), Hubei 13.72 yuan/kg (-0.08), etc. The national average price was 13.23 yuan/kg (-0.1) [2]. - **Futures Contract Prices**: LH2509 was 14150 yuan, up 25; LH2511 was 14125 yuan, down 125; LH2601 was 14400 yuan, down 95. The spread LH09 - 11 was 25 (up 150), and LH11 - 01 was -275 (down 30) [2]. Pig Slaughter and Weight - From June to July, the month - on - month decline in pig slaughter was due to the slowdown in slaughter caused by winter piglet losses. This week, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 128.48 kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35 kg (0.27%) and a year - on - year increase of 3.09 kg (2.46%) [2]. Piglet Complementary Stocking - Piglet prices changed little compared with last week [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 29th, glass and soda ash prices were weak. The recent significant price fluctuations of glass and soda ash are the result of intense industry and capital games. The previous upward trend was mainly affected by their own supply disturbances and the expected coal supply disturbances. The market has been trading on the anti - involution logic, with strong bullish sentiment for commodities. The futures prices of glass and soda ash have risen significantly driven by supply and cost increases. The limit - down on the 28th was also affected by market sentiment, with intense capital games and multiple varieties hitting the limit - down, including glass and soda ash. [2] - Recently, the fundamentals of glass and soda ash are still not ideal, but under strong expectations, their prices are likely to rise due to capital influence. [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - The fundamentals of glass and soda ash are still not good recently, but due to strong expectations, prices are easily driven up by capital. [2] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Buy call options on dips. [2] Group 5: Futures Data Summary Soda Ash Futures | Contract | 1 - month | 5 - month | 9 - month | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Closing Price | 1313 | 1368 | 1188 | | Change | 13 | 34 | - 35 | | Change Rate | 1.0% | 2.55% | - 2.86% | | 5 - 9 Price Difference Closing | - 55 | | | | 5 - 9 Price Difference Change | - 21 | | | | 1 - 5 Price Difference Closing | 180 | | | | 1 - 5 Price Difference Change | 69 | | | | 9 - 1 Price Difference Closing | - 125 | | | | 9 - 1 Price Difference Change | - 48 | | | | Spot Price (East China) | 1250 | | | | Main Contract Basis | 122 | | | [1] Glass Futures (Not fully presented in the data, only spot price information) | Spot Region | Spot Price | | --- | --- | | East China | 1350 | | South | 1320 | | Northwest | 11020 | [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Pulp futures are currently significantly affected by the macro - environment, and the commodity sentiment is expected to be volatile this week. It is recommended to observe cautiously [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 29, 2025, SP2601 was 5544, up 1.02% day - on - day and 0.76% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5406, down 0.55% day - on - day and up 0.96% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5374, up 0.26% day - on - day and 0.11% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 29, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5420, down 0.55% day - on - day and 0.37% week - on - week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4150, unchanged day - on - day and up 1.22% week - on - week [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes (USD)**: In July, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 500, down 10.71% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged month - on - month [1]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in May was 140 tons, up 3.30% month - on - month [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 24, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 214.3 tons, down 3.8 tons from the previous period, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 25.60 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The production of major finished papers decreased slightly this week, and the prices of finished papers remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 29, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 46, with a quantile level of 0.796; the Silver Star basis was 546, with a quantile level of 0.864 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On July 29, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36, with a quantile level of 0.684; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 49, with a quantile level of 0.69 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests caution as the oils and fats market may experience a correction after the cooling of macro - sentiment, and recommends a wait - and - see approach [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Spot Price Information - **Palm Oil**: On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Tianjin was 9070, down 50 from July 28; in Zhangjiagang it was 9020, down 50; and in Huangpu it was 8920, down 50 [1]. - **Grade I Soybean Oil**: On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Tianjin was 8270, up 20 from July 28; in Zhangjiagang it was 8370, up 20; and in Huangpu it was 8320, up 20 [1]. - **Grade IV Rapeseed Oil**: On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Zhangjiagang was 9590, up 50 from July 28; in Wuhan it was 9610, up 50; and in Chengdu it was 9820, up 50 [1]. Futures Data - **Contract Spreads**: On July 29, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 744, up 82 from July 28; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1266, down 20 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On July 29, 2025, palm oil warehouse receipts were 570, unchanged; soybean oil warehouse receipts were 21113, down 382; and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487, unchanged [1]. Palm Oil Supply and Demand Information - **Indonesia**: In May, due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. Exports reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% year - on - year increase. May's crude palm oil production was 4.17 million tons, lower than April but a 7.2% increase from last year [2]. - **Malaysia**: From July 1 - 20, the yield per unit area increased 7.03% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased 0.16% month - on - month, and production increased 6.19% month - on - month. Export data from different institutions showed varying degrees of decline compared to the previous month [2]. - **India**: In June, India's palm oil imports increased 61% month - on - month to 953,000 tons, the highest in 11 months [2]. Other Information - **US Soybeans**: As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the expected 71%. The flowering rate was 62%, and the pod - setting rate was 26% [2]. - **Australian Rapeseed**: Australian rapeseed is expected to enter the domestic market, which will alleviate the shortage of rapeseed imports caused by the tense China - Canada relationship [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations to stabilize the inter - bank market funds as the funds have tightened recently. The market may slow down its short - term upward speed after continuous strong growth, and it needs new themes and positive sentiment. Macro - level events such as the July Politburo meeting communique and the third round of Sino - US trade consultations should be focused on, and the strategy should be adjusted to mainly go long [4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.36 with a - 9.85bp change, DR007 at 1.56 with a - 1.64bp change, GC001 at 1.66 with a 31.50bp change, GC007 at 1.68 with a 7.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.56 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.41 with no change, 5 - year treasury at 1.60 with a 3.25bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.75 with a 3.00bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.42 with a 2.00bp change [3] - **Reverse - Repurchase Operations**: The central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 2148 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases maturing, the net daily investment was 2344 billion yuan. This week, 16563 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases will mature, with 1707 billion, 2148 billion, 1505 billion, 3310 billion, and 7893 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [3][4] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index Performance**: The CSI 300 rose 0.39% to 4152, the SSE 50 rose 0.21% to 2808.6, the CSI 500 rose 0.52% to 6356.1, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.65% to 6773.9. The trading volume of the two stock markets was 18032 billion yuan, an increase of 609 billion yuan from the previous day. Medical services, steel, chemical pharmaceuticals, biological products, shipbuilding, and semiconductors led the gains, while insurance, banking, agriculture, and the petroleum industry led the losses [6] - **Futures Contracts**: For IF, the current - month contract rose 0.5%, with a trading volume increase of 5.0% and a position decrease of 1.6%. For IH, the current - month contract rose 0.2%, with a trading volume decrease of - 0.5% and a position decrease of - 0.8%. For IC, the current - month contract rose 0.7%, with a trading volume decrease of - 0.1% and a position decrease of - 1.7%. For IM, the current - month contract rose 0.8%, with a trading volume increase of 1.2% and a position decrease of - 2.6% [5] - **Premium and Discount**: IF's current - month contract had a premium/discount of - 0.40%, IH's was - 3.06%, IC's was 12.95%, and IM's was 13.59% [7] 3.3 Market News - **Policy News**: The national parenting subsidy system implementation plan was announced on July 28. From January 1, 2025, subsidies will be provided for children under 3 years old born in line with laws and regulations until they reach 3 years old, with a current national basic standard of 3600 yuan per child per year [6] - **Trade Negotiations**: The third round of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations is underway, with no obvious progress yet but still worthy of expectation [6]

Market Review - The closing prices and changes of major indices are as follows: SSE 50 closed at 2802.7674, up 0.26%; CSI 300 at 4135.8242, up 0.21%; CSI 1000 at 6729.979, up 0.35%. The trading volumes of these indices were 49.74 billion, 222.76 billion, and 252.74 billion respectively, with turnovers of 1145.71 billion yuan, 4067.93 billion yuan, and 3595.76 billion yuan [4]. - Regarding the trading situation of CFFEX stock index options, for SSE 50, the trading volume of put options was 1.05 million contracts, call options 2.09 million contracts, with a PCR of 0.50. The open interest was 6.92 million contracts, with 4.46 million call contracts and 2.46 million put contracts, and a PCR of 0.55. For CSI 300, the put option trading volume was 3.02 million contracts, call options 4.60 million contracts, PCR 0.66. The open interest was 18.81 million contracts, with 10.91 million call contracts and 7.89 million put contracts, and a PCR of 0.72. For CSI 1000, the put option trading volume was 8.30 million contracts, call options 9.81 million contracts, PCR 0.85. The open interest was 24.55 million contracts, with 12.55 million call contracts and 12.00 million put contracts, and a PCR of 0.96 [4]. Volatility Analysis SSE 50 Volatility - The historical volatility of SSE 50 is presented with various percentile values, including the maximum, minimum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% percentile values, and the current value. The next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve are also shown [8][12]. CSI 300 Volatility - The historical volatility of CSI 300 shows different percentile values such as the maximum, minimum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% percentile values, and the current value. The next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve are provided [12]. CSI 1000 Volatility - The historical volatility of CSI 1000 includes the maximum, minimum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% percentile values, and the current value. The next - month at - the - money implied volatility and the volatility smile curve are presented [12]. Overall Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.12% to 3597.94 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.44%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.96%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 0.25%, the STAR 50 rose 0.09%, the Wind All - A rose 0.36%, the Wind A500 rose 0.33%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.3%. The total trading volume of A - shares for the day was 1.77 trillion yuan, compared with 1.82 trillion yuan the previous day [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Supply: US soybean good rate dropped to 68% this week, with dry conditions expected in Kansas in the next two weeks, potentially unfavorable for soybean growth, but normal weather in other areas is overall beneficial. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, domestic soybean crushing in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the pressure of soybean meal inventory accumulation is expected to last until September; ship arrivals are slow from October to January [7]. - Demand: Short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming is expected to support feed demand, but policies aim to control pig inventory and weight. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, with high提货 volume. Wheat substitution for corn in some areas reduces protein consumption. Recent soybean meal transactions are normal [8]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; soybean meal is in an inventory accumulation cycle, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [8]. - Investment advice: Buy on dips and pay attention to Sino - US policies. Overall, domestic near - month ship purchases are basically covered, soybean meal is in an inventory accumulation cycle, the near - month basis is still expected to be under pressure, M09 is expected to fluctuate, and M01 is recommended based on the expectation of rising import costs [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Spread Data - **Base Difference of Soybean Meal Futures and Spot**: On July 28, the base difference of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 10 with a decrease of 9; in Tianjin, it was - 70 with an increase of 11; in other regions, the base differences and their changes are also provided in detail [6]. - **Spread Data**: The differences between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, including spot spread in Guangdong and main contract spread, as well as the differences between different contract months (such as M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1) are presented, along with their values and changes [7]. Supply - related Data - **Soybean Import and Processing**: The CNF premium of imported soybeans from Brazil, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the disk crushing profit, and the import soybean disk gross profit are shown. The disk crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans is 265 yuan/ton with no change [7]. - **Inventory Data**: Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, national major oil - mill soybean inventory, national major oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises are provided, showing their historical trends [7]. - **Soybean Pressing and Operation Rate**: Data on the national major oil - mill soybean pressing volume and operation rate are presented, showing their historical trends [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Lithium carbonate, PTA, Ethylene glycol, PP, PVC [1][2] - **Bearish**: Alumina, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Coke, Corn (C01), PVC, Caustic soda, LPG [1][2] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index futures, Bond futures, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Manganese silicon, Silicon iron, Glass, Soda ash, Palm oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn (C09), Soybean meal (MO9), Pulp, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, Natural rubber, BR rubber, Urea, PE [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market requires new themes and bullish sentiment to drive it after continuous strong rallies. The short - term upward speed of stock index futures may slow down. Attention should be paid to the July Politburo meeting communique, the third round of China - US trade consultations, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions. [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest - rate risks suppresses the upside space. [1] - Although the outlook for tariff progress is positive, market uncertainties remain, and with the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September, gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. [1] 3. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock index futures**: After continuous rallies, the short - term upward speed may slow down. Adjustment and long - position building are the main strategies. Pay attention to the July Politburo meeting communique and the third round of China - US trade consultations. [1] - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest - rate risks suppresses the upside space. [1] Precious metals - **Gold**: Despite positive tariff progress expectations, market uncertainties and the Fed's possible September interest - rate cut keep the price oscillating in the short term. [1] - **Silver**: It may return to the fundamental logic and oscillate. [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Short - term market sentiment is optimistic, but high prices suppress downstream demand, so the price may oscillate. [1] - **Aluminum**: Rising electrolytic aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, and the price may oscillate weakly. [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term prices are macro - dominated and widely oscillating. There is a long - term surplus pressure on primary nickel. It is advisable to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices. [1] - **Stainless steel**: Futures are macro - dominated in the short term. Wait and see, look for short - selling opportunities at high prices and cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities. [1] - **Tin**: It returns to fundamental trading in the short term, with limited driving forces due to weak supply and demand. [1] Industrial metals - **Steel products (e.g., rebar, hot - rolled coil)**: Market sentiment cools, and capital behavior may cause large fluctuations. [1] - **Iron ore**: Market sentiment recedes, and prices fluctuate sharply. [1] - **Manganese silicon, silicon iron**: Market sentiment recedes, and prices fluctuate sharply. [1] Chemicals - **PTA**: Supply contracts, but crude oil prices are strong. Polyester downstream load remains high, and there is a slight inventory reduction at ports. [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Coal prices rise slightly, commodity sentiment is strong, overseas device maintenance is extended, and supply contracts. [1] - **Benzene ethylene**: Pure benzene prices fall slightly, device load rises, and the basis weakens significantly. [1] - **Urea**: Supply contraction is expected, and domestic demand enters the off - season. [1] - **PE**: Macro sentiment fades, returning to fundamentals. There are many maintenance activities, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, with prices oscillating weakly. [1] - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, orders are for rigid needs, and the "anti - involution" sentiment drives the price to oscillate strongly. [1] - **PVC**: Macro sentiment fades, returning to fundamentals. Maintenance decreases, downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and supply pressure rises. [2] - **Caustic soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, spot prices are at a low level, and the premium of delivery substitutes increases. [2] - **LPG**: Crude oil support is insufficient, international fundamentals are loose, port propane inventory is high, and it is in the seasonal off - season for combustion demand. [2] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: The good rate of US soybeans is lowered, policies are negative for feed raw materials, and funds tend to be long on oil and short on meal. It is short - term strong, and the previous high pressure should be observed. [1] - **Cotton**: The near - month contract is driven by short - squeeze logic, and the upside of the 01 contract is limited. Pay attention to the time window from late July to early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas. [1] - **Sugar**: It is running strongly, driven by the rebound of raw sugar and peak - season demand, but the upside is limited. Pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range. [1] - **Corn**: The old - crop supply - demand is tightening, supporting the C09 contract, but the short - term market has sufficient grain circulation. The new - crop planting cost is lower, and the C01 contract is over - valued. It is advisable to short C01 at high prices. [1] - **Soybean meal**: The near - month contract is in the inventory - building cycle, and the basis is under pressure. The MO9 contract is expected to oscillate, and the MO1 contract can be bought on dips based on the expected increase in import costs. [1] - **Paper pulp**: It has rebounded significantly due to the strong commodity sentiment. The basis of broad - leaf pulp has weakened to - 1400 yuan/ton, and further chasing of long positions is not recommended. [1] - **Log futures**: Affected by the macro environment, it is likely to decline on Monday after many commodities fell on Friday night. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The near - term is affected by the continuous decline in airlines' prices in early August. The US - EU - China tariff talks may provide emotional support, but the outcome of the China - US talks is not expected to be better than market expectations, and the probability of postponed or over 20% tariffs is higher [7]. - The spot price basically peaked at the end of July. Airlines continued to use the late - July freight rates in early August but gradually lowered them as the booking time approached. The demand and loading rate at the end of July were good, but the high - capacity deployment in early August weakened the effect of the domestic cargo rolling pool. Spot prices are expected to peak at the end of July or early August, decline slowly until late August, and then the decline rate will increase. The main focus of the 10 - contract is the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1593, down 3.30% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1261, down 3.23%. Among different routes, SCFI - US West decreased by 3.50%, SCFIS - US West by 1.31%, SCFI - US East by 6.48%, SCFI - Northwest Europe by 0.53%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe by 3.50%, and SCFI - Mediterranean by 4.35% [5]. - **Contract Prices**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., the current values and their changes compared to the previous values are presented. For example, EC2506 is currently at 1493.6, down 1.61% [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The current and previous positions of contracts like EC2606, EC2508, etc., and their changes are given. For instance, the current position of EC2606 is 832, with an increase compared to the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The current and previous values of monthly spreads such as 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4, and their changes are provided. For example, the 10 - 12 spread is currently 680.4, down 4.7 from the previous value [5]. Market Strategy - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the gold price is under pressure due to the US - EU tariff agreement, ongoing Sino - US trade talks, mild market risk - aversion, and the expected Fed's inaction in July. However, due to tariff policy uncertainty and the expected Fed rate cut in September, the gold price may still be supported in the medium - term. Silver is dragged down by the general slump in commodity sentiment and may run bearishly in the short - term. It is recommended to buy gold on dips and wait and see for silver [3]. - In the long - term, there is still a certain probability of a Fed rate cut this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the de - dollarization trend, the long - term center of the gold price is likely to continue to move up [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, London gold spot dropped 0.5% to $3340.32/ounce, London silver spot dropped 1.9% to $38.33/ounce, COMEX gold dropped 0.6% to $3340.10/ounce, COMEX silver dropped 2.2% to $38.45/ounce, AU2508 dropped 0.3% to 772 yuan/gram, AG2508 dropped 1.9% to 9190 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) dropped 0.3% to 771.11 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) dropped 1.9% to 9185 yuan/kg [3]. 3.2 Spread/Ratio - On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price changed by - 41.8%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price changed by 66.7%, the gold cross - border spread (TD - London) changed by 84.6%, the silver cross - border spread (TD - London) changed by - 1.2%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio changed by 1.6%, the CONEX gold - silver ratio changed by 1.6%, AU2512 - 2508 changed by 7.8%, and AG2512 - 2508 changed by - 4.3% [3]. 3.3 Position Data - As of July 25, 2025, compared with July 24, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 957.09 tons, the silver ETF - SLV increased 0.15% to 15230.42858 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold increased 15.44% to 311949 contracts, the non - commercial short positions increased 3.15% to 58911 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions increased 18.73% to 253038 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver increased 0.77% to 85678 contracts, the non - commercial short positions decreased 2.02% to 25058 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions increased 1.97% to 60620 contracts [3]. 3.4 Inventory Data - On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 30258 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory increased 1.77% to 1208269 kg. On July 25, 2025, compared with July 24, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory increased 0.39% to 37762394 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory increased 0.51% to 500320749 ounces [3]. 3.5 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On July 28, 2025, compared with July 25, 2025, the USD/CNY central parity rate increased 0.07% to 7.15, the US dollar index increased 0.19% to 97.67, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.91%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased 0.68% to 4.40%, the VIX decreased 2.99% to 14.93, the S&P 500 increased 0.40% to 6388.64, and MANEX decreased 1.65% to 65.07 [3]. 3.6 Market Analysis - **Short - term**: The US - EU tariff agreement, ongoing Sino - US trade talks, mild market risk - aversion, and the expected Fed's inaction in July lead to a rebound in the US dollar index, suppressing the precious metal prices. But due to tariff policy uncertainty and the expected Fed rate cut in September, the gold price may still be supported in the medium - term. Silver is dragged down by the general slump in commodity sentiment and may run bearishly in the short - term [3]. - **Long - term**: There is still a certain probability of a Fed rate cut this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the de - dollarization trend, the long - term center of the gold price is likely to continue to move up [3].