1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for polyester is "oscillating", with an expectation of being mainly bearish due to the lack of obvious driving factors [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the polyester market has significantly weakened, and the fundamentals of PTA have slightly deteriorated. There are mixed factors in supply, demand, inventory, basis, profit, valuation, and macro - policies, leading to an oscillating market outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Polyester load has declined, reducing PTA demand. PTA port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $240, while the profit margins of alkylation transfer and TDP are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains around $100 [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester remains at 88%. The main polyester production cuts are concentrated in short - fiber and bottle - chip varieties, which will affect polyester load. As PTA prices recover, the load of the weaving end has declined [3]. - **Inventory**: PTA port inventory has decreased by 35,000 tons this week, entering a destocking cycle [3]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has weakened rapidly. As PTA device profits recover, the number of devices has increased rapidly, and market liquidity is slightly tight [3]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha is $240, and the spread between PX and MX has shrunk. PTA processing fees are maintained at around 250 yuan and have contracted [3]. - **Valuation**: PTA prices are at a moderately low level. As reforming devices gradually recover, aromatics supply has increased, and the expansion of gasoline profits has boosted demand [3]. - **Macro - policy**: There is uncertainty in India's oil import policy from Russia due to Trump's threat of punishment, but Indian officials say the policy remains unchanged [3][9]. - **Investment View**: The market is expected to oscillate, mainly bearish due to the lack of obvious driving factors [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: The US is sanctioning Russian crude oil. Trump threatened to punish India if it does not cut off Russian oil imports, but Indian officials will continue to import [5][9]. - **Gasoline**: Demand is strong during the peak season. North American refinery loads remain high. Diesel price increases drive up crude oil prices, and crude oil inventory has increased continuously. Refinery operating rates are high, gasoline production exceeds 9.9 million barrels, but imports have decreased. Finished gasoline inventory decline supports crude oil and gasoline prices. The spread between European gasoline and naphtha remains at $150 [10][16][24]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - **Domestic Reforming Devices**: Loads are gradually recovering. North American reforming device profit margins remain unchanged, while reforming octane profit margins have slightly increased, and BTX extraction profit margins have slightly declined. Aromatics extraction demand can be met internally [27][43]. - **Selective Disproportionation**: Profits have shrunk. The economic viability of North American TDP and STDP is weak, and MX supply may decrease, but STDP profit margins have been positive for about two months [44][50]. - **Polyester Load**: It has started to decline. PX pricing is closely linked to futures after the listing of PX futures. PTA processing intervals are long - term below 500 yuan, and option - based income - enhancement schemes are more widely used. Short - fiber and bottle - chip industries are in the capacity - expansion cycle, and overseas demand is an important variable, with new export opportunities along the "Belt and Road" [51][55]. - **Reforming Device Maintenance**: It is gradually returning. Asian naphtha markets have strengthened slightly, and the cracking spread of naphtha - Brent crude oil has improved. Asian gasoline remains strong, but gasoline reforming profit margins have declined. Asian spot MX supply is still sufficient [56][57]. - **Gasoline and Aromatics Reforming**: Both have strengthened. Domestic commodity sentiment has weakened, polyester downstream load has decreased to 88%. PTA spot has become slightly more abundant, and port inventory has decreased. PTA basis has dropped from 0 to - 20. Some reforming device overhauls have been postponed, and bottle - chip manufacturers have started production - cut plans [63]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices have rebounded due to rising coal prices and improved macro - sentiment. Overseas device overhauls, especially in Saudi Arabia, have been postponed, and future arrivals are expected to decrease. Polyester production and sales have weakened, and the industry has entered an overhaul cycle, which has a negative impact on the market [70][77]. - **Gasoline**: Profits have recovered, and the load of major refineries has increased [79]. - **Polyester**: Downstream demand has weakened, and bottle - chip and short - fiber production facilities are undergoing maintenance. Raw material prices have risen, while terminal demand has weakened [87][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on butadiene rubber is a bearish oscillation, indicating that the price of butadiene rubber is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [4]. Core View of the Report - The sentiment has declined, and there are negative factors on the cost side. The price of butadiene rubber (BR) is oscillating at a low level. The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase in August, while the demand shows a neutral trend. The inventory and basis show a positive trend, and the profit and geopolitical - macro factors are negative [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - This week, the price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales has been reduced by 400 yuan/ton in total, and that of major sales companies of PetroChina has been reduced by 100 yuan/ton in total. As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China is between 11,800 and 12,100 yuan/ton. The market sentiment has changed, and the prices of butadiene rubber, raw material butadiene, and related natural rubber have gradually declined [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 1.034 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 69.97%. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 910,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.46%. Some butadiene devices were shut down or under maintenance, and the production of butadiene rubber is expected to continue to increase in August [4]. Demand - For semi - steel tires, the replacement market's sales performance has continued the weak trend of last week, and the terminal demand has not improved significantly. For all - steel tires, the market transactions have increased slightly compared with last week, and some brands may raise prices next month [4]. Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 104,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.76%. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 31,320 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. The overall inventory of sample enterprises has limited fluctuations [4]. Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 55 yuan/ton, in East China is 45 yuan/ton, and in South China is 95 yuan/ton. The futures price is higher than the spot price [4]. Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread is 2,855 yuan/ton (a decrease of 9.72%), the NR - BR spread is - 2,044 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20.44%), and the BR - SC price ratio is 0.94% [4]. Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation is 176 yuan/ton, and that by C4 extraction is 1,988 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber is - 176 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin is - 1.47% [4]. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The fundamentals of crude oil are continuously loose, the demand in the refined oil market is weak, and the international crude oil price is oscillating downward. The market's optimistic sentiment towards the "anti - involution" policy has weakened, and the premium of the coal chemical and new energy chains has been given back. Trump signed an executive order to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on multiple countries and regions, but the market generally believes that China - US tariffs may ease [4]. Device Information - In 2025, many refineries in China have carried out or planned to carry out device overhauls, including major state - owned refineries and local refineries. Some butadiene and butadiene rubber production devices are also in a state of overhaul or shutdown [12][13]. Price Trend Charts - The report provides various price trend charts, including the price trends of butadiene rubber, butadiene, and other related products, as well as the seasonal charts of prices, production, consumption, and inventory [15][21][32]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Oscillation; Arbitrage trading: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Also, pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, device overhauls, and geopolitical factors [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the LPG market is bearish [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The August CP official price has decreased, and the LPG price is fluctuating weakly. The current market has a large number of new warehouse receipts. The reverse arbitrage logic for the PG09 delivery month may be repeated, but there are still uncertainties in the macro - aspect. Due to the suppression of the August CP price, the current spread is in a volatile window. It is recommended that investors mainly stay on the sidelines in the LPG market [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated within the range of 3990 - 4100 yuan/ton. The rise in international crude oil prices briefly boosted the market, but the negative factors were concentrated in the domestic and international spot markets. The international LPG price fluctuated slightly, the domestic chemical demand fluctuated slightly, the combustion demand was weak, and the downstream purchased at low prices. The increase in imported shipments put pressure on the market, and the domestic spot price fluctuated downward [7]. 3.2 LPG Futures Price, Inter - month Spread, and Cross - month Spread Overview - As of August 2, 2025, the prices of different LPG contracts (PG01 - PG12) and their inter - month and cross - month spreads had different changes compared with the previous week and month. For example, the PG09 - PG10 spread was - 439 yuan/ton, with a 4.28% increase compared with the previous week and a 12.28% increase compared with the previous month [10]. 3.3 Influencing Factors Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 52.65 tons, including 20.98 tons of civil LPG, 20.30 tons of industrial LPG, and 17.74 tons of ether - post C4. The arrival volume of LPG was 65 tons. Two Shandong refineries resumed operation last week, increasing the supply. This week, one enterprise in Shandong is under maintenance, one enterprise in the Northwest has started its device, and some enterprises have increased their device loads. It is expected that the domestic commodity volume may continue to grow [5]. 3.3.2 Demand - The combustion demand remains weak, and it is difficult to improve significantly as it is the traditional off - season, and the downstream has little procurement demand, mainly replenishing as needed. In the olefin deep - processing sector, the oil product market performed poorly, the inventory pressure of domestic deep - processing enterprises increased, which restricted the performance of products such as isooctane and MTBE, and weakened the demand for ether - post C4. This impact is expected to continue in August. In the alkane deep - processing sector, the concentrated restart of PDH maintenance has increased the operating rate, but the demand for propylene in the intermediate link and PP at the terminal is average in the off - season, the fundamentals are loose, and the profits of other downstream sectors have also suffered varying degrees of losses, so the C3 chain remains bearish [5]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Last week, the LPG inventory in refineries was 18.08 tons, and the port inventory was 313.44 tons. This week, the LPG inventories of enterprises in various regions of the country remained stable overall. Only the inventory in Shandong increased slightly due to the increase in supply, while the inventory in East China decreased due to the boost of Fujian resources going to sea. The number of arriving ships at ports increased this period. Only in East China were the arriving ships affected by the typhoon, and the imported resources were relatively sufficient. In terms of demand, the chemical demand decreased slightly this period, and the combustion demand was tepid. The overall demand decreased slightly. With the high arrival volume, the port inventory showed an upward trend this period [5]. 3.3.4 Basis, Position - The weekly average basis was 72.63 yuan/ton in East China, 54.84 yuan/ton in South China, and 46.56 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 9759, an increase of 45. The lowest deliverable area was East China [5]. 3.3.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 566.00%, 404.40%, and 450.00% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 431 yuan/ton, - 333 yuan/ton, and 42.00 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.3.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 72.63, and the spread between the first and second - month contracts of PG was - 4.81 yuan/ton. The spot price has not yet bottomed out, the basis level is high, and there is still room for the absolute price to fall [5]. 3.3.7 Other - The fundamentals of crude oil remain loose, the demand in the refined oil market is weak, and the international crude oil price is fluctuating downward. The market's bullish sentiment on the "anti - involution" policy has weakened, and the premium of the coal - chemical and new - energy chains has been given back. On July 31, Trump signed an executive order to impose "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on multiple countries and regions, but the market generally believes that Sino - US tariffs may ease [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, pay attention to the PG9 - 10 reverse arbitrage [5].

Report Title - [Precious Metals Weekly Report (AU, AG): Non-farm Payrolls Disappoint, Gold and Silver Rebound] [1] Report Date - August 4, 2025 [2] Report Analyst - Bai Suna [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The sharp deterioration of the US labor market and pressure from the Trump administration make it highly likely that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, which may continue to support the gold price to remain strong. Silver is expected to follow gold but may underperform in the face of new concerns about an economic recession [5]. - In the long - term, the gold price still has room to rise, supported by factors such as the high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, global geopolitical instability, intensifying de - globalization, and the weakening of the US dollar's credit, which will keep central banks net gold buyers [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio - London spot gold was at $3362.64 per ounce, up $26.42 (0.79%) from the previous week; Shanghai gold futures主力 was at 770.72 yuan per gram, down 6.6 yuan (-0.85%) [4]. - London spot silver was at $37.017 per ounce, down $1.12 (-2.94%); Shanghai silver futures主力 was at 8918 yuan per kilogram, down 474 yuan (-5.05%) [4]. - The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 86.42, up 3.66 (4.42%) [4]. ETF and CFTC Positions - Gold SPDR - ETF holdings were 953.08 tons, down 4.01 tons (-0.42%); COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions (lagged by one week) were 223,596 contracts, down 29,442 contracts (-11.64%) [4]. - Silver SLV - ETF holdings were 15,057 tons, down 174 tons (-1.14%); COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions (lagged by one week) were 59,407 contracts, down 1,213 contracts (-2.00%) [4]. Inventory Data - SHFE gold inventory was 35.745 tons, up 5.49 tons (18.13%); COMEX gold inventory was 1204.19 tons, up 29.65 tons (2.52%) [4]. - SHFE silver inventory was 1184 tons, down 3.3 tons (-0.28%); COMEX silver inventory was 15,759 tons, up 197.22 tons (1.27%); SGE silver inventory (lagged by one week) was 1368 tons, up 56.42 tons (4.30%) [4] 2. Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index was 98.6900, up 1.0199 (1.04%); the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1929, up 0.0248 (0.35%) [4]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.6981%, down 0.2294 percentage points (-5.84%); the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.2198%, down 0.168 percentage points (-3.83%); the US 10 - year real interest rate was 1.9%, down 0.06 percentage points (-3.06%) [4]. US Economic Data - US July non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, far below expectations and the previous value, and the unemployment rate rebounded to 4.2%, indicating a sharp slowdown risk in the US labor market [5]. - The US July ISM manufacturing PMI was below expectations and in the contraction range for five consecutive months, potentially triggering new concerns about a US economic recession [5]. - The US second - quarter GDP growth was strong, and the consumer confidence index improved [57]. - US manufacturing PMI declined again, while service PMI was better than expected [59]. - Employment cooled significantly, with job vacancies and labor participation rates decreasing [64][65]. - Inflation rebounded slightly, but inflation expectations cooled [70]. Eurozone and UK Economic Data - Eurozone manufacturing PMI rebounded, while service PMI declined; the Eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded [79][80]. - Eurozone and UK inflation data showed different trends, and the European Central Bank and the Bank of England maintained their interest rates [81] Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, with 73.9 million ounces of gold reserves at the end of June, an increase of 700,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) month - on - month [89]. - In Q1 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased 243.7 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 21.4%, but still maintaining a net - buying trend [89]. Strategy Recommendations - Hold long positions in gold; consider buying silver on dips [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - After consecutive strong rallies, with the phased realization of macro - level positives, the upward speed of stock indices may slow down, and market volatility and adjustments should be watched out for [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market and Operation - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.40% with an 8.17bp increase, DR007 at 1.55% with a 3.67bp increase, GC001 at 1.03% with a 75.00bp decrease, GC007 at 1.43% with a 19.50bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.57% with a 0.20bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.37% with a 1.25bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.56% with a 1.25bp decrease, 10 - year treasury at 1.71% with a 1.50bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.38% with a 4.00bp increase [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 2832 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 3310 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 478 billion yuan. This week, there are 16563 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, but government bond issuances and certificate of deposit maturities are lower than last week, and month - end fiscal expenditures may speed up, which could bring incremental funds to the inter - bank market [3]. Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 closed at 4076 with a 1.82% decrease, the SSE 50 at 2776 with a 1.54% decrease, the CSI 500 at 6226 with a 1.40% decrease, and the CSI 1000 at 6661 with a 0.85% decrease. The trading volume of the two markets was 19360 billion yuan, an increase of 918 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors generally declined, with energy metals, steel, coal, mining, photovoltaic equipment, real estate development, shipbuilding, precious metals, and chemical fiber industries leading the decline [3]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF's current - month contract closed at 4070 with a 1.8% decrease, IH's at 2777 with a 1.6% decrease, IC's at 6187 with a 1.3% decrease, and IM's at 6612 with a 0.9% decrease. IF's trading volume was 156196 with a 13.2% increase, IH's was 75925 with a 7.0% increase, IC's was 119559 with a 13.6% increase, and IM's was 267774 with a 15.8% increase. IF's open interest was 270987 with a 1.4% decrease, IH's decreased, IC's was 227163 with a 1.2% decrease, and IM's was 348264 with a 0.5% increase [3]. - **Premium and Discount**: IF's current - month contract had a premium of 3.10%, IH's had a discount of - 1.23%, IC's had a premium of 15.22%, and IM's had a premium of 17.89% [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Commodity sentiment has weakened, PTA basis has weakened and trading volume has declined. Domestic PTA production capacity supply has shrunk, and PTA port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90. In July, bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. The port inventory in the market has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. The overall polyester inventory is not high, and the polyester load has dropped to 88% [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Spot Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4860 to 4825, a decrease of 35 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 4527 to 4503, a decrease of 24 [2] Closing Price Changes - PTA closing price decreased from 4856 to 4808, a decrease of 48 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 4450 to 4414, a decrease of 36 [2] Short Fiber Data - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6665 to 6650, a decrease of 15 [2] - Short fiber basis increased from 119 to 136, an increase of 17 [2] - 8 - 9 spread decreased from 48 to 18, a decrease of 30 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] Bottle Chip Data - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market decreased, with the average price dropping by 35 yuan/ton. The mainstream negotiation range is 5950 - 6080 yuan/ton [2] - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 6011 to 5993, a decrease of 18 [2] - Hot - filled polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6011 to 5993, a decrease of 18 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6111 to 6093, a decrease of 18 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price decreased from 795 to 790, a decrease of 5 [2] Others - T32S pure polyester yarn price decreased from 10350 to 10300, a decrease of 50 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3685 to 3650, a decrease of 35 [2] - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14950 to 14800, a decrease of 150 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1230 to 1297, an increase of 66.64 [2]

| | | | 玻璃纯碱数据目报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ITG国贸期货 | | 国贸期货研究院出品 | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 制表人:黑色金属研究中心 | | | | | | | | 黄玉贺 | | | | | | | | 投资咨询证:Z0015761 从业资格证:F3051824 | | | | | | | 2025/08/01 | | | | | 细碱 | | | 合约 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | 收盘 | 1224 | 1298 | 1117 | 1325 | 1378 | 1247 | | 涨跌 | -96 | -90 | -74 - 14 | -69 | -74 | -64 | | ■期货 幅度 | -7.27% | -6.48% | -6. 21% | -4.95% | -5. 1% | -4.88% | | 价三 | 1月-5月 | 5月-9月 | 9月-1月 | 1月-5月 | 5月-9月 | 9月-1月 | | 收盘 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has weakened. The supply of domestic PTA production capacity has contracted, and the port inventory of PTA has declined. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the profitability of alkyl transfer and TDP is not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. The market's port inventory has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved as the basis weakens. However, the basis of PTA has weakened, and the market's willingness to replenish has declined [2]. - The coal price has rebounded, leading to an increase in the price of ethylene glycol. The macro - sentiment has slightly weakened, and the chemical industry has followed the weakening sentiment of bulk commodities. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the market outlook and has been boosting the price of ethylene glycol. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. The polyester production and sales have weakened, the profit of downstream weaving has shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price increased from 528.6 yuan/barrel on July 30, 2025, to 531.3 yuan/barrel on July 31, 2025, with a change of 2.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The price decreased from 1014.6 yuan/ton to 947.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 67.62 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA/SC (Ratio)**: It decreased from 1.2641 to 1.2453, a change of - 0.0189 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: The price dropped from 866 to 858, a change of - 8 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: It decreased from 277 to 250, a change of - 27 [2]. - **PTA Main Contract Futures Price**: It decreased from 4856 yuan/ton to 4808 yuan/ton, a change of - 48.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Price**: It decreased from 4860 to 4825 yuan/ton, a change of - 35.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: It increased from 179.3 yuan/ton to 189.0 yuan/ton, a change of 9.7 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: It decreased from 185.3 yuan/ton to 177.0 yuan/ton, a change of - 8.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Main Contract Basis**: It decreased from (10) to (15), a change of - 5.0 [2]. - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Remained unchanged at 29738 [2]. - **MEG Main Contract Futures Price**: It decreased from 4450 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, a change of - 36.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - Naphtha**: It decreased from (112.68) to (116.87) yuan/ton, a change of - 4.2 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Domestic Market**: It decreased from 4527 to 4503 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG Main Contract Basis**: It decreased from 63 to 60, a change of - 3.0 [2]. 2. Industry Chain Operating Rates - **PX Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 77.29% [2]. - **PTA Operating Rate**: Decreased from 79.45% to 76.64%, a change of - 2.81% [2]. - **MEG Operating Rate**: Remained unchanged at 58.13% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Remained unchanged at 86.28% [2]. 3. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - **POY150D/48F**: Remained unchanged at 6760 [2]. - **POY Cash Flow**: Increased from (162) to (124), a change of 38.0 [2]. - **FDY150D/96F**: Increased from 7060 to 7065, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **FDY Cash Flow**: Increased from (362) to (319), a change of 43.0 [2]. - **DTY150D/48F**: Increased from 7955 to 7960, a change of 5.0 [2]. - **DTY Cash Flow**: Increased from (167) to (124), a change of 43.0 [2]. - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: Decreased from 6665 to 6650, a change of - 15 [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash Flow**: Increased from 93 to 116, a change of 23.0 [2]. - **Semi - Bright Polyester Chip**: Decreased from 5920 to 5905, a change of - 15.0 [2]. - **Polyester Chip Cash Flow**: Increased from (102) to (79), a change of 23.0 [2]. 4. Production and Sales Rates - **Long - Filament Production and Sales Rate**: Decreased from 110% to 27%, a change of - 83% [2]. - **Short - Fiber Production and Sales Rate**: Increased from 42% to 49%, a change of 7% [2]. - **Polyester Chip Production and Sales Rate**: Decreased from 89% to 72%, a change of - 17% [2]. 5. Device Maintenance - A 7.2 - million - ton PTA plant of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on the raw material logistics situation [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of shipping derivatives basically peaked at the end of July. It is expected to decline slowly until late August and then the decline rate will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract game is the decline rate of freight rates from August to October. The strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies (take profits due to recent large pullbacks) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) both declined. SCFI dropped by 3.30%, CCFI by 3.23%. Among different routes, SCFI - US West decreased by 3.50%, SCFIS - US West by 1.31%, SCFI - US East by 6.48%, SCFI - Northwest Europe increased by 0.53%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 3.50%, and SCFI - Mediterranean by 4.35% [3]. - **Contract Index**: All contract indices declined. EC2506 dropped by 3.41%, EC2508 by 0.81%, EC2510 by 2.97%, EC2512 by 2.63%, EC2602 by 3.09%, and EC2604 by 4.47% [3]. - **Position**: For positions, EC2606 increased by 32, while EC2508 decreased by 724, EC2410 by 3056, EC2412 by 45, EC2602 by 77, and EC2604 by 184 [3]. - **Calendar Spread**: The 10 - 12 spread increased by 2.1 to - 267.2, the 12 - 2 spread increased by 1.6 to 207.6, and the 12 - 4 spread increased by 16.3 to 368.2 [3]. Market News - USTR Greer hopes for positive progress in China - related trade but does not expect a major breakthrough. Trump's trade team also anticipates no major breakthrough in China negotiations. The EU - China summit commemorated the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations, with the meeting period shortened from two days to one at China's request, reflecting escalating tensions. The US - China trade negotiation team met in Stockholm, and both sides expressed the importance of stable economic and trade relations and the intention to continue consultations [4].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily data report on sugar, covering domestic and international sugar - related data and market analysis [2][3][4] Group 2: Domestic Sugar Price and Market Data - On July 31, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan was 5790 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong was 6115 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3] - SR09 was 5793, down 11; SR01 was 5655, down 11; SR09 - 01 was 138, unchanged [3] - The domestic market demand was weak, low inventory supported the spot price in Guangxi, and processed sugar entered the market, causing the quoted price to loosen and putting pressure on prices [4] Group 3: International Sugar Price and Market Data - On July 31, 2025, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.2095, up 0.0160; the exchange rate of the real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004 [3] - The main contract of ICE raw sugar was 16.46, unchanged; the main contract of London white sugar was 573, up 3; the main contract of Brent crude oil was 72.75, unchanged [3] - In Brazil, sugar production in the second half of June was lower than expected. If the sugar - alcohol ratio continued to decline, Brazil's sugar output might not meet expectations [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - Considering the expected increase in imports, the overall domestic supply - demand situation would be marginally looser, and the market was expected to be bearish after a rebound [4]