2012 31 2025-11-24 F3014717 Z0013223 01 PART ONE 主要观点 9 | 影响因素 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 本周国内商品明显走弱，其中，工业品和农产品板块多数品种均走弱。一是，多位美联储理事发表偏鹰的讲话，美联储10月会议纪要显现出较大的分歧，9月非农 | | | 就业数据改善，12月降息预期大幅降温，美元指数反弹，压制市场的风险偏好；二是，国内经济延续放缓的节奏，政策始终保持耐心，打击市场的情绪。三是， | | | 地缘政治因素出现改善的苗头，油价走弱拖累大宗商品。 | | 海外 | 1）美联储公布10月会议纪要显示，FOMC决定连续第二次降息 25个基点，但在12名投票者中，有两人反对此次降息决定。反对者中，新任理事米兰仍希望降息 | | | 50个基点，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德则是支持按兵不动。对于缩表行动，则几乎完全一致认为应该停止；在金融稳定的风险方面，一些人担心股市无序下跌。2） | | | 美国9月非农就业报告公布，9月新增非农就业11.9万个岗位，远超市场预估的5万，创下自4月以来的最大增幅。失业率却意外从4.3%攀升 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 资金博弈剧烈，价格承压下行 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-11-24 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:情绪悲观，价格下行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量微降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.81万吨，比13日-0.66%。行业开工率为74.66%，比13日-0.34个百分点；行业产能利用率为79.03%，比 | | | | 13日-0.53个百分点。本周1条生产线放水冷修，叠加1条产线热修，产量减少。下周暂无产线存点火或者冷修预期，预估下周浮法玻璃日产量维 | | | | 持稳定。 | | 需求 | 中性 | 需求有支撑，近期产销随着价格波动而波动。但总体看来，下游需求仍有较强韧性。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 库存震荡，企业库存6330.3万重箱，环比+5.6万重箱，环 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 卖压后置，短期反弹 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-24 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:卖压后置，短期反弹 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 短期偏多， | （1）短期基层农户惜售，渠道上量减少，但短期惜售或意味着卖压的后置，建议关注12--1月的产地卖压；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降，播种面积稳 | | | 中期偏空 | 中略减，单产表现良好，整体维持丰产预期。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025年9月，全国工业饲料产量3036万吨，环比增长3.4%，同比增长5.0%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为33.6%， 同比下降2.4个百分点。（2）畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，产能去化尚不明显，支撑饲用需求，但目前养殖利 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the container shipping industry is "weak and volatile" [3] Core Viewpoints - The future trend of the container shipping industry will show a weak and volatile pattern. The core driving factors include the implementation of December freight rates, the execution of the January price increase letter, and seasonal changes in cargo volume. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the actual implementation of December freight rates and the effectiveness of the January price increase letter [3] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. In early December, MSK quoted $2500, HPL quoted $2700, OOCL quoted $2400, CMA quoted $3550, EMC quoted $3100, ONE and MSC quoted $2450 [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Neutral. The last trading day of the container shipping index (European Line) futures EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026. Iran seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, and the Houthis officially announced to stop maritime attacks against Israel. A ship that was supposed to go around the Cape of Good Hope actually passed through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [3] - **Capacity Supply**: Bullish. The average weekly capacity deployment in September was 290,000, in October was 245,000, in November was 265,000, and in December is expected to be 290,000 [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years. PA + MSC has the lowest loading rate in the alliance and is more likely to cut prices, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [3] - **Summary and Outlook** - The market will be weak and volatile. If the top shipping companies maintain the quote range of $2400 - $2600 per FEU in December and there is no large - scale overbooking, the near - month contracts of EC will continue to be under pressure. The implementation of the January price increase letter may face difficulties. The traditional peak season from late December to early January may bring short - term freight rate boosts if there is an unexpected increase in cargo volume. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the actual implementation of December freight rates and the effectiveness of the January price increase letter. If the December freight rates are implemented at 80% of the quoted price, the EC2602 contract may test the range of 1500 - 1700 points; if the price is successfully maintained, the 02 contract may rise to 1800 - 1900 points [3] - **Investment Viewpoint and Trading Strategy** - The investment viewpoint is "weak and volatile". The trading strategy is to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trading, and pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and macro - policy disturbances at home and abroad [3] Part Two: Price - There are graphs showing the European Line Index, US West Line Index, US East Line Index, etc., but no specific text analysis is provided [6] Part Three: Static Capacity - **Order Volume, Delivery Volume, Demolition Volume, and Future Delivery** - There are graphs showing the order volume, delivery volume, demolition volume, and future delivery of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 - 2029 [12][15][21] - **Ship Prices** - There are graphs showing the new - building prices, second - hand ship prices, and scrap prices of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 - 2025 [28][34][36] - **Existing Capacity of Container Ships** - There are graphs showing the existing capacity, average age, and demolition average age of container ships with different loading capacities from 2015 - 2025 [43][50][52] Part Four: Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)** - There are graphs showing the total capacity deployment, PA + MSC capacity deployment, GEMINI capacity deployment, MSC capacity deployment, and OCEAN capacity deployment from week 13 to week 28 [58][60][62] - **Container Ship Desulfurization Tower Installation, Speed, and Idle Capacity** - There are graphs showing the container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those under installation, average speed, and idle capacity from 2018 - 2025 [69][73][77]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, the methanol market is basically in supply - demand balance. The port arrival volume has slightly increased, but the inventory fluctuation is limited. The downstream demand has recovered, with the operating rates of major downstream sectors such as olefins and dimethyl ether increasing, which drives up consumption. The coal price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the slight increase in logistics freight rates supports the market. It is expected that the methanol price will maintain a stable and slightly stronger trend. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand and changes in port inventory to operate according to the market rhythm. The market shows a benign interaction between supply and demand, with limited price fluctuation space, and structural opportunities can be moderately focused on [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - **Regional Spot Prices**: In the spot market, the current prices in Inner Mongolia North Line, Shaanxi Guanzhong, Taicang, Guangdong, Shandong Linyi, and Henan are 2000, 1985, 1905, 2135, 2020 respectively. The previous values were 2000, 1978, 1905, 2000, 2145, 2000 respectively. The price changes are 0, 7, 0, -5, -10, 20 respectively [1]. Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: For futures contracts MA2601 and MA2605, the current values are 2004 and 2138 respectively, the previous values are 2016 and 2153 respectively, and the price increases are -0.60% and -0.70% respectively [1]. Market Analysis - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The methanol market is in a state of basic supply - demand balance this week. Port arrivals have slightly increased, and downstream demand has recovered, with major downstream sectors increasing their operating rates [2]. - **Price Trend**: Coal prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, and the slight increase in logistics freight rates supports the market. Methanol prices are expected to maintain a stable and slightly stronger trend [2].

01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 区间震荡，关注南美天气 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-24 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 【粕类周报】 粕类：区间震荡，关注南美天气 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）USDA11月供需报告将2025/26年度美豆单产由53.5蒲式耳/英亩下调至53蒲式耳/英亩，将压榨维持25.55亿蒲不变，将出口由16.85亿蒲下调至16.35亿 蒲，结转由3亿蒲下调至2.9亿蒲，利多不及预期。（2）根据CONAB数据，预测25/26巴西新作产量达到1.776亿吨。截至11月15日，巴西大豆播种率为 | | 供给 | 偏空 | 69.0%，上周为58.4%，去年同期为73.8%，五年均值为67.2%。阿根廷农牧渔业国秘处公布的数据显示，截至11月13日，阿根廷2025/26年度大豆 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic fundamentals and corporate earnings are bearish, with the October economic data showing a weakening trend, including declines in investment growth and real estate prices. Inflation slightly rebounded in October [3]. - The macro - policy is neutral - bullish. The policy news is relatively quiet at the end of the year, and there is less need for further monetary policy tightening in the short term [3]. - Overseas factors are neutral - bearish. Geopolitical tensions may ease marginally, and multiple Fed officials have signaled potential interest rate cuts [3]. - Liquidity is neutral, with the average daily trading volume of A - shares decreasing compared to the previous week [3]. - The investment view is weak and volatile. The A - share market lacks a clear driving force, and it is expected that market differences will be digested during the index's volatile adjustment [3]. - The trading strategy is short - term volatility and long - term bullish, with risks focusing on domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Logics** - Economic and corporate earnings: The 1 - 10 cumulative year - on - year decline in fixed - asset investment was 1.7%, with real estate investment down 14.7%, infrastructure investment up 1.51%, and manufacturing investment up 2.7%. Inflation rebounded slightly in October, with CPI up 0.2% year - on - year [3]. - Macro policy: The policy news is quiet at the end of the year, and there is less need for additional monetary policy in the short term [3]. - Overseas factors: Geopolitical tensions may ease, and multiple Fed officials signaled rate cuts, with the market betting the probability of a December rate cut exceeding 50% [3]. - Liquidity: The average daily trading volume of A - shares decreased by 1550.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - **Investment and Trading Views** - Investment view: Weak and volatile, lacking a clear driving force, with the average daily trading volume dropping from about 2.5 trillion yuan in October to about 1.7 trillion yuan currently [3]. - Trading strategy: Short - term volatility and long - term bullish, with risks from domestic policies and overseas geopolitics [3] 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance** - The CSI 300 fell 3.77% to 4453.6, the SSE 50 fell 2.72% to 2955.9, the CSI 500 fell 5.78% to 6817.4, and the CSI 1000 fell 5.8% to 7067.7 last week [5]. - Most Shenwan first - level industry indices declined, with power equipment, comprehensive, basic chemicals, commercial retail, and steel leading the losses [7]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest** - The trading volume of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 16.77%, 18.96%, 13.60%, and 14.05% respectively [11]. - The open interest of CSI 300 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 4.16%, 8.40%, and 11.64% respectively, while that of SSE 50 futures decreased by 2.10% [11]. - **Spread Performance** - The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at 1497.8, in the 92.2% historical percentile; the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at 250.3, in the 42% historical percentile [16]. - The CSI 300/CSI 1000 and SSE 50/CSI 1000 ratios were at 0.6, in the 43.6% and 39.5% historical percentiles respectively [16] 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Funding and Macro - liquidity** - The central bank conducted 16760 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 8000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchase operations this week, with a net injection of 13540 billion yuan. After considering the maturity of treasury cash deposits, the net injection was 12340 billion yuan [23]. - Next week, 16760 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, 9000 billion yuan in MLF, and 3000 billion yuan in 182 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature [23]. - **Market Volume and Margin Trading** - As of November 20, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 24839.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.3 billion yuan from the previous week [29]. - As of November 20, the margin trading purchase amount accounted for 11% of the total market trading volume, in the 93% percentile of the past decade [29]. - The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 1550.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week [29]. - As of November 21, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.39, in the 56.9% percentile of the past decade [29] 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators** - In October, GDP was not reported, industrial added - value increased by 4.9% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year [32]. - The CPI in October was 0.2% year - on - year, and the PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year [32]. - The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from September [40]. - **Corporate Earnings** - The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and other indices varied in different quarters [45]. - The return on equity (TTM) of different indices also showed different trends [45] 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Drivers - **Recent Macro - policy Trends** - Multiple policies have been introduced in various fields such as consumption, real estate, and finance since the beginning of the year, including policies to promote service consumption, issue special treasury bonds for consumer goods replacement, and adjust real estate purchase restrictions [50][51] 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data** - The US manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous value [60]. - The US unemployment rate in September was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 119,000 [60]. - The US PCE and core PCE in September had a year - on - year increase of 0%, and the CPI and core CPI in September had a year - on - year increase of 3% [63]. - **Trump Team's Actions** - Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on imports from multiple countries, including China, Mexico, and Canada, and has made various remarks and actions regarding international relations and economic policies [67]

01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 宏观情绪消退，盘面价格震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 PVC:宏观情绪消退，盘面价格震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，基本面难改供大于求格局，PVC供应受检修影响小幅上升，市场需求维持平淡。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用 | 供给 | 偏空 | 率在78.83%环比增加0.32%，同比增加0.39%；其中电石法在81.31%环比增加0.52%，同比增加3.36%，乙烯法在73.12%环比减少0.14%，同比减少6.72%。 | | | （3）本周PVC生产企业检修损失量在5.358万吨，较上期减少1.011万吨。本周常 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. For specific industries: - **Industrial Silicon**: The investment view is that the price may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and the trading strategy is a unilateral, fluctuating - upward trend [7]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 4.8 - 5.8, and the trading strategy is a unilateral, fluctuating trend [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has a callback pressure and may fluctuate widely after stabilizing, and the trading strategy is to partially close long positions [89]. 2. Core Views The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, cost - profit, and other aspects of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It points out that industrial silicon may fluctuate strongly in the short - term due to supply - demand reduction and increased inventory reduction; polysilicon is in a situation of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the anti - involution policy will continue to be promoted; lithium carbonate has a callback pressure due to factors such as the slowdown of inventory reduction and the increase of overseas ore supply, but the terminal demand remains strong [7][8][89]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 8.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%. The output and furnace - opening numbers in major producing areas have decreased. The production in November is expected to be 38.95 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.88% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of polysilicon is 2.75 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly output of silicone is 4.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.03% [7]. - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 66.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75%, and the industry inventory is 44.82 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [7]. - **Cost - Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9244 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.04%, and the profit per ton is - 40 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16 yuan [7]. 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 2.75 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The production in major producing areas shows different trends [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of silicon wafers is 12.75GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The new installed capacity in September 2025 is 9.66GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25% [8]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 27.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%, showing continuous inventory accumulation [8]. - **Cost - Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41714 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%, and the profit per ton is 8391 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 226 yuan [8]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 2.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.72%. The production in November is expected to be 9.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20% [89]. - **Import**: In October, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 2.39 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.86%, and the import volume of lithium concentrate was 53.10 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.02% [89]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of iron - lithium materials is 10.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.15%. In October, the output of new energy vehicles was 177.20 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.59% [89]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 11.84 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.70%, and the inventory of lithium salt factories is 2.61 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.96% [89]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost of purchasing lithium mica and lithium spodumene for lithium extraction is 97058 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.09%, and the profit is negative [89].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【液化石油气（LPG）投资周报】 油弱气强格局依旧，PG盘面整理运行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本周能化大宗产品收盘价格监控 能化产品收盘价格监控 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 月涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 周价格走势 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 月涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 周价格走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元兑人民币汇率 | 元 | 7 0875 . | -0 04% . | 0 07% . | -0 07% . | -1 45% . | ...