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油脂预计走势分化,等待供需共振机会
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 06:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report anticipates a differentiated trend in the oil and fat market and suggests waiting for opportunities for supply - demand resonance. It provides investment advice on unilateral trading, basis trading, inter - month arbitrage, and cross - variety spread trading for different types of oils [1][2]. - Palm oil is expected to be short - term volatile and long - term bullish; soybean oil is short - term bearish and medium - term neutral; rapeseed oil shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern with a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q3 2025, the futures prices of the three major domestic oils showed differentiation. Palm oil prices were volatile from July to September, affected by Indonesia's policies and Malaysia's inventory and demand. Soybean oil prices were range - bound due to factors like US soybean production and potential biodiesel demand. Rapeseed oil prices strengthened due to supply shortages and inventory depletion [9]. 3.2 Global Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Overview 3.2.1 Global Oilseeds - In the 2025/26 season, global oilseeds are expected to be in a tighter situation. The ending inventory is estimated to be 143.08 million tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 16.1%, down 0.13 percentage points year - on - year. Demand growth exceeds inventory growth [12][13]. 3.2.2 Global Oils and Fats - The global oil and fat market is becoming increasingly tight, mainly driven by the growing demand for biodiesel. Production is expected to reach 234.69 million tons in 2025/26, up 2.47% year - on - year, while demand is expected to reach 229.28 million tons, up 3.04% [14]. 3.3 Palm Oil Origin Situation 3.3.1 Malaysia - The traditional palm oil production reduction season in Malaysia is approaching in Q4, and there may be an early reduction in September due to abnormal precipitation and floods. Exports in September are expected to increase before the Indian Festival of Lights, and inventory is expected to decline slightly [17][21]. 3.3.2 Indonesia - In 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to increase, with cumulative production from January to July reaching 33.496 million tons, up 3.35 million tons year - on - year. Domestic consumption is increasing due to the implementation of B40, and exports have not decreased as expected [25][30]. 3.4 Soybean Origin Situation 3.4.1 Brazil - In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's soybean production is estimated to be 171.47 million tons, up 13.3% year - on - year. Exports are expected to be 106.65 million tons, up 8% year - on - year. The implementation of B15 in 2025 will increase the demand for soybean oil. There is a high probability of a La Nina event in winter 2025, which may affect new - crop yields [35][38]. 3.4.2 United States - In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean planting area is estimated to be 81.1 million acres, down about 7% year - on - year. As of September 21, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate was 61%. The total production is estimated to be 4.301 billion bushels. The new RVO proposed by the EPA will increase the demand for vegetable oils [40][55]. 3.5 Rapeseed Origin Situation 3.5.1 Canada - In the 2025/26 season, Canada's rapeseed planting area is expected to decrease by 2.0% year - on - year, but production is expected to increase by 4.1% due to higher yields. Exports have been poor due to China's anti - dumping measures [58][64]. 3.6 Major Consumer Countries' Situation 3.6.1 India - In August 2025, India's imports of palm oil, sunflower oil, and rapeseed oil reached a peak due to pre - festival stocking. In September, imports decreased slightly but remained at a high level. After the Festival of Lights, consumption will enter a seasonal off - season [69][70]. 3.6.2 China - For palm oil, imports are expected to weaken in Q4, and inventory is expected to remain around 500,000 tons from October to November. For soybean oil, imports are affected by Sino - US trade frictions, and supply is increasing. For rapeseed oil, production is affected by raw material shortages, and inventory is expected to decline rapidly [73][90]. 3.7 Spread Situation 3.7.1 Basis - Palm oil basis is expected to be weak in Q4; soybean oil basis is expected to oscillate weakly; rapeseed oil basis is expected to strengthen [93]. 3.7.2 Inter - month Spread - For the 1 - 5 spread in Q4, palm oil has a positive arbitrage logic, soybean oil has a reverse arbitrage logic, and rapeseed oil has a positive arbitrage logic [100]. 3.7.3 Cross - Variety Spread - In Q4, it is recommended to go long on palm oil or rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil [102].
新陈交替,震荡筑底
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 06:37
· 专题报告 新陈交替,震荡筑底 观点: C01 震荡偏弱 报告日期 2025-09-29 季度报告 若无明显政策和天气变化,新季玉米卖压预期和种植成本下降的情 况下,预期 C01 将震荡筑底,关注贸易商囤粮节奏和政策变化。待新粮 卖压进一步兑现后,C09 可择机逢低多配。 ⚫ 风险提示 天气、政策 往期相关报告 | 1.新陈交替,盘面重回弱势 | | --- | | 2025.09.16 | | 2.新季玉米卖压预期,盘面弱势寻 | | 底 2025.08.25 | | 3.进口玉米拍卖消息冲击,盘面承 | | 压 2025.07.02 | 1 D ⚫ 全球主要出口国玉米库消比回升: 在种植面积上调和高单产预期 下,2025/26 年度美玉米库消比由 2024/25 年度的 8.65%上调至 13.14%;全球主要的玉米出口国库消比由 7.71%上调至 9.73%。 ⚫ 新季玉米预期丰产,种植成本下降:2025/26 年度全国种植面积预 期同比略减,由于种植期天气条件适宜,预期单产水平同比明显 提升,全国整体维持丰产预期。新季玉米集港成本预期进一步下 降至 1950-2100 元/吨附近。目前盘面距离成本线 ...
蛋白数据日报-20250929
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 06:19
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 400-8888-598 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号:Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 ITG国贸期货 2025/9/29 | 指标 | | 9月26日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 113 | 30 | 1600 | ----- 18/19 ----- 22/23 | ===== 19/20 ===== 23/24 | == - 24/25 | == | | | 天津 日照 | 63 23 | 30 20 | 1200 400 | | | | | | | | | | 800 | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | 3 | 30 | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 400 | | | | | | | | | | 01/21 02/21 | 03/24 04/24 | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/2 ...
航运衍生品数据日报-20250929
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 06:04
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 II GERIK 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源:Clarksons、Wind | | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | til | 现值 | 1115 | 1087 | 1460 | 1193 | 2385 | 971 | | Alla | 前值 | 1198 | 1120 | 1636 | 1349 | 2557 | 1052 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -6.97% | -2.93% | -10.76% | -11.56% | -6.73% | -7.70% | | 指 | | SCFI ...
钢材:高产量水平下,考验需求
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:41
· 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31 号 钢材:高产量水平下,考验需求 | 投资观点: | 震荡 | 黑色金属 | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025-9-29 | 季度报告 | ⚫ 需求:内需偏淡、出口潜在信心不足 出口依然是钢材几个需求指标中最有韧性的,需要注意的是 有一定脆弱性。内需指标三季度都有不同程度回落:地产垫 底,制造业和基建高增放缓。卷、螺库存三季度去化不理想, 从实际需求表现来看,10 月是建材次旺季,按照近几年历史 季节性变化的同期参考,四季度钢材库存和产量边际变化方 向大多是下降的,但建材表需高点往往出现在国庆节前的某 一周。不过宏观层面存中美降息周期共振等利好风偏的可能 性,可关注资金行为是否有助于投机需求改善。 ⚫ 供给:产量高位,增加对需求匹配度的要求 今年钢厂即期生产利润还不错,长流程优于短流程,是产量 保持高位的重要条件。基于年度产量平控要求以及四季度后 需求预期提速的空间暂时不大,四季度产量层面需关注是否 有减产行为。 单边建议敞口中性配置,或等待新驱动出现。 贸易环节建议关注流动性好的现货品种滚动交易基差。 品种价差层面,关注卷螺差 ...
镍:底部运行,警惕供给端扰动
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment view: Range-bound trading [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4, the path of the Fed's interest rate cuts remains uncertain, and China's growth-stabilizing policies are expected to be rolled out. Affected by macro events, nickel prices are likely to consolidate at the bottom and are more sensitive to supply-side disturbances. Focus on mining news and macro changes in Q4, and the valuation range of pure nickel can refer to the production cost of integrated electrowon nickel (which fluctuates with ore prices). In terms of operations, short-term range trading is recommended, and combination strategies such as selling out-of-the-money call options can be used to increase returns, while paying attention to risk control [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q1, policies in nickel resource countries stimulated price increases; in Q2, trade conflicts and an intensified surplus led to a sharp decline; in Q3, the fundamentals were stable, and the Fed's interest rate cut in September provided a temporary boost. As of September 26, SHFE nickel closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from mid-year, and LME nickel was reported at $15,230/ton, up 0.33% [8]. 3.2 Macro Analysis 3.2.1 Fed Interest Rate Cut - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September, but the subsequent path remains uncertain. The economic outlook shows an upward adjustment of GDP growth expectations, while unemployment and inflation expectations are relatively stable [12][13]. - The US labor market has weakened significantly, with non-farm payrolls being persistently weak and the unemployment rate reaching a new high since October 2021. Inflation has been rising steadily, increasing market expectations for further interest rate cuts [21]. 3.2.2 China's Economic Situation - In H2, some macro data showed signs of weakening, including fixed asset investment and social consumption. The government may introduce new incremental measures in Q4, focusing on fiscal stimulus, central bank interest rate cuts, and stabilizing the real estate market [24][27]. - The "anti-involution" policies have been introduced, but their impact on the nickel industry chain is currently limited [28][29]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply Side - Indonesia's nickel ore supply is stable, but there are risks of policy disturbances. The premium for nickel ore remains firm, and Indonesia's imports of nickel ore from the Philippines are increasing. The RKAB quota for 2026 will be re-approved in October, attracting market attention [31][32]. - China's nickel pig iron production has declined slightly, while Indonesia's production remains high but with a slowing growth rate. The import of nickel pig iron from Indonesia has increased year-on-year [43][44]. - The import of nickel intermediate products has increased, with a decline in the import of nickel matte. Indonesia's MHP production has increased significantly, while the production of nickel matte has decreased [51][54]. - The production of refined nickel has remained high, with both imports and exports increasing. The cost of integrated electrowon nickel production will be the focus of pure nickel valuation [58][68]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - The growth rate of stainless steel production has slowed down, and the demand has shown some resilience. The social inventory of stainless steel is gradually being depleted [70][80]. - The production of nickel sulfate has remained stable year-on-year, but the low proportion of ternary materials in power batteries has dragged down the demand for nickel. In the long term, solid-state batteries may drive the demand for high-nickel ternary materials [85][88]. - The consumption of nickel in alloy and special steel has maintained a certain growth rate, and attention should be paid to the situation of national stockpiling [92][93]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Global nickel inventory has continued to accumulate, and the spot premium has weakened slightly compared to mid-year [95]. 3.3.4 Supply-Demand Balance - The surplus pattern of primary nickel continues, and attention should be paid to supply-side disturbances in Q4. It is expected that China will have a surplus of 179,800 tons of primary nickel in 2025, and the global surplus will be 246,200 tons [100][102].
液化石油气(LPG)投资周报:国庆前后地缘扰动频繁,PG价格高位回落-20250929
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating bearish" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, PG prices have fallen from high levels. The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers and tend to be weak. The supply - demand of propylene in the intermediate link is under pressure, and the short - term demand for PP is saturated with a shutdown expectation in the later period. The PDH profit is expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts in the market, macro and geopolitical risks [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures declined, with a fluctuation range of 4230 - 4490 yuan/ton. In the first half of the week, the international crude oil price dropped, suppressing the market trend. Both domestic and foreign spot prices fell, and the sentiment of market participants was weak, leading to a rapid decline in the market. However, the domestic propane demand increased month - on - month, the combustion demand improved successively, and the demand expectation increased. In the second half of the week, the crude oil price rebounded, and the market rebounded slightly after reaching the bottom [5] 3.2 Domestic LPG Delivery Product Spot Price and Basis - **Spot Price**: In different regions, the prices of civil gas, imported gas, and ether - post - C4 have different changes. For example, in the East China region, the average price of civil gas decreased by 0.50% week - on - week; in the South China region, the price of Maoming civil gas remained unchanged week - on - week [7] - **Basis**: The weekly average basis in East China was 126.80 yuan/ton, in South China was 357.80 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 301.80 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts increased by 1353 to 14327 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] 3.3 LPG Futures Price, Inter - month Spread, and Cross - month Spread - **Futures Price**: The prices of different LPG futures contracts (PG01 - PG12) showed different degrees of decline compared with the previous week and month. For example, PG01 decreased by 4.36% week - on - week and 1.83% month - on - month [8] - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spreads (such as PG01 - PG02, PG02 - PG03, etc.) also had different changes compared with the previous week and month. For example, the spread of PG01 - PG02 decreased by 6.06% week - on - week and increased by 3.33% month - on - month [8] - **Cross - month Spread**: The cross - month spreads (such as PG01 - PG03, PG02 - PG04, etc.) also showed different trends. For example, the spread of PG01 - PG03 decreased by 6.04% week - on - week and 4.76% month - on - month [8] - **Arbitrage**: There are month - to - month and cross - month arbitrage strategies. For example, in month - to - month arbitrage, the spread between PG2511 and PG2512 was 7.9 on the day, and the z - score was 1.7318 [8] 3.4 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - **Main Refineries**: Many main refineries in China have device maintenance plans in 2025, including full - plant maintenance and partial device maintenance of some refineries such as Beihai Refining and Chemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical, etc. [9] - **Local Refineries**: Local refineries in Shandong, Northeast, Central China, and Northwest regions also have corresponding device maintenance plans, such as the full - plant maintenance of Shenchi Chemical, Xin泰 Petrochemical, etc. [9] 3.5 LPG Production Device and PDH Device Maintenance Plan - **LPG Production Device**: Some LPG production enterprises in China have device maintenance plans in 2025, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical, Huaxing Petrochemical, etc. [10] - **PDH Device**: Some PDH devices in China are in normal operation, while some are in shutdown or maintenance. For example, Qingdao Jinneng Phase I is in shutdown for maintenance, and it is expected to restart on October 1st [11] 3.6 Fundamental Factors Affecting LPG - **Supply**: Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 539,200 tons. The commercial volume of civil gas was 211,200 tons (a decrease of 4.76%), industrial gas was 212,500 tons (a decrease of 0.75%), and ether - post - C4 was 170,130 tons (a decrease of 1.64%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, and some enterprises will reduce production, so the domestic commercial volume is expected to decline [4] - **Demand**: The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is weakening. In the deep - processing of C4, affected by new energy substitution, the gasoline demand is weakening. The profit of MTBE is inverted, but the operating rate is high. The profit of alkylated gasoline has turned from profit to loss, and the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep. The ether - post - market may fall and stabilize. In the deep - processing of C3, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is expected to decline. After the National Day, the operating rate may drop below 65%. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has fallen, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. The PDH device has shown continuous losses from propylene to PP, and the profit negative feedback effect has emerged [4] - **Inventory**: Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 188,100 tons (an increase of 4.33%), and the port inventory was 3.1366 million tons (a decrease of 3.01%). The storage capacity utilization rate of the domestic LPG market increased last week. The inventory reduction in Northeast, Shandong, and Central China was relatively smooth through price concessions, but affected by adverse factors such as typhoon extreme weather and supply increase, the inventory in East China, South China, North China, and the West continued to increase. At the port, the arrival of ships decreased, and the replenishment of imported resources was insufficient [4] - **Basis and Position**: The weekly average basis in East China was 126.80 yuan/ton, in South China was 357.80 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 301.80 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 14,327 lots, an increase of 1,353 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] - **Chemical Downstream**: The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 69.48%, 58.35%, and 45.51% respectively. The profit of PDH to propylene was - 349 yuan/ton, the profit of MTBE isomerization was - 90 yuan/ton, and the profit of alkylation in Shandong was - 13 yuan/ton [4] - **Valuation**: The PG - SC ratio was - 2.47%, and the spread between PG continuous first and continuous second months was 79 yuan/ton. The continuous increase in crude oil production has dragged down the cost section, and the PG - SC cracking spread has continued to strengthen [4] - **Other Factors**: Crude oil is in a fundamental surplus expectation caused by geopolitical factors, sanctions, and OPEC+ production increase, and maintains range - bound trading. The non - farm payrolls data in the United States in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed people, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and it is expected to cut interest rates by 50bp or more within the year. Geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East are frequently disturbed in the short term and tend to be tense [4] 3.7 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment View**: The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers and tend to be weak. The supply - demand of propylene in the intermediate link is under pressure, and the short - term demand for PP is saturated with a shutdown expectation in the later period. The PDH profit is expected to decline further. Overall, in the short - term, PG prices have fallen from high levels, and the profit negative feedback effect of downstream PDH is prominent [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies include going long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, going long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and going long on SC and short on PG [4]
贵金属数据日报-20250929
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:38
| 2023-00 | ZUZ4-UB | 00-6707 | 22 ETF-SPOR ETF-SLVIRET - 200 | 2025-09 | 2024-09 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 | 一黄金基差(AuT+D-期货连续) | -- COMEX金银比价 | ●SHFE金银比价 | -- | -- 伦敦金现(右) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -- 白银价差(AgT+D-期货连续) | | | | | | | | | | | 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦 ...
瓶片短纤数据日报-20250929
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:38
瓶片短纤数据日报 险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 lle 41 客 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn | | | | | 投资咨询号: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | Z0017251 2025/9/29 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/9/25 | 2025/9/26 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4585 | 4590 | 5.00 | | | MEG内盘价格 | 4315 | 4294 | (21.00) | 现货资讯: | | PTA收盘价 | 4678 | 4646 | (32.00) | 短纤:现货市场:涤纶短纤生产工厂价格稳定, | | MEG收盘价 | 4246 | 4213 | (33.00) | 贸易商价格区间整理,下游按需采买,场内成交 不振。1.56dtex*3 ...
聚酯数据日报-20250929
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:38
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: As domestic PTA plants gradually resume operation, PTA production is on the rise. However, PTA profits are still constrained by over - capacity and new plant commissions. Recently, with improved demand, delayed new plant commissions, and some enterprises reducing production to maintain prices, PTA processing fees show signs of recovery. High polyester loads without significant inventory accumulation indicate optimistic market demand, especially in exports. PTA's operating rate may further improve [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol at East China ports is 46.5 tons. The overall inventory continues to decline, and it is expected to further deplete. Although overseas imports are expected to decline, domestic plant commissions keep the ethylene glycol price under pressure. Polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load is rising [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Comparison - INE crude oil price increased from 490.6 yuan/barrel on September 25, 2025, to 491.3 yuan/barrel on September 26, 2025, with a change of 0.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1112.8 yuan/ton to 1075.7 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.09 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3121 to 1.3013, a decrease of 0.0108 [2]. - CFR China PX decreased from 817 to 814, a decrease of 3; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 211 to 206, a decrease of 5 [2]. - PTA main futures price decreased from 4678 yuan/ton to 4646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.0 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 4585 to 4590, an increase of 5.0 [2]. - PTA spot processing fee increased from 213.5 yuan/ton to 222.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.0 yuan/ton; PTA futures processing fee decreased from 291.5 yuan/ton to 273.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.0 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG main futures price decreased from 4246 yuan/ton to 4213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from (133.89) yuan/ton to (135.48) yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.6 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG domestic price decreased from 4315 to 4294, a decrease of 21.0 [2]. 2. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - PX operating rate remained at 85.57%; PTA operating rate decreased from 78.12% to 77.23%, a decrease of 0.89%; MEG operating rate remained at 62.62%; polyester load decreased from 88.74% to 87.81%, a decrease of 0.93% [2]. 3. Product Data Polyester Filament - POY150D/48F increased from 6530 to 6605, an increase of 75.0; POY cash flow increased from (86) to (8), an increase of 78.0 [2]. - FDY150D/96F increased from 6720 to 6790, an increase of 70.0; FDY cash flow increased from (396) to (323), an increase of 73.0 [2]. - DTY150D/48F increased from 7840 to 7870, an increase of 30.0; DTY cash flow increased from 24 to 57, an increase of 33.0 [2]. - Filament sales decreased from 175% to 40%, a decrease of 135% [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6500 to 6495, a decrease of 5; polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased from 234 to 232, a decrease of 2.0 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber sales decreased from 88% to 60%, a decrease of 28% [2]. Polyester Chips - Semi - bright chips increased from 5725 to 5745, an increase of 20.0; chip cash flow increased from 9 to 32, an increase of 23.0 [2]. - Chip sales decreased from 152% to 38%, a decrease of 114% [2]. 4. Device Maintenance - Two PTA plants in South China with a total capacity of 5 million tons have reduced their loads recently due to weather conditions, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].