1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bullish. In the short - term, PVC has no obvious driving factors and is expected to fluctuate mainly. In the long - term, with less global PVC production and capacity gradually exiting, it is bullish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro sentiment has subsided, and the futures price has declined. The PVC market is affected by supply, demand, inventory, cost, and other factors. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the long - term, there is an upward trend [3][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has a narrow adjustment, the oversupply pattern is difficult to change in the short - term. The overall capacity utilization rate is 79.63%, a decrease of 0.04% month - on - month and 2.3% year - on - year. The maintenance loss this week is 3.585 tons, an increase of 0.48 tons from the previous period [3]. - **Demand**: Bearish. Downstream demand is in the off - season, with a decline in downstream start - up rates. The export volume in November 2025 was 27.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.78% and a year - on - year increase of 29.64% [3]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. The social inventory increased by 2.70% month - on - month to 114.41 tons, and the production enterprise's factory inventory days decreased by 3.70% month - on - month [3]. - **Basis**: Neutral. The basis has strengthened, currently at - 183 yuan/ton [3]. - **Profit**: Bullish. The profits of the two PVC production processes are different. The average profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 29 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the average profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 54 yuan/ton month - on - month [3]. - **Valuation**: Bullish. The price is at a historical low, and the valuation is low [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Neutral. The macro sentiment has temporarily receded [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy on dips; no arbitrage strategy [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Price Trend**: The PVC powder market fluctuated strongly in the middle of the week and declined at the weekend. The futures price decreased. The supply pressure increased, and the demand continued to decline. There may be a rush to export due to tariff policy changes [6]. - **Price Spread**: The price spread has widened, and PVC maintains a contango structure [9]. 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production in Main Production Areas**: After the maintenance ended, the production in the northwest was high [35]. - **Domestic Inventory**: Factory inventory increased, and social inventory decreased [43]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream demand is in the off - season, with a decline in the start - up rates of various downstream industries [64]. - **Export**: It is the seasonal off - season, and exports have slowed down. There may be a rush to export due to the cancellation of export subsidies in April. India's policies have made the export order - receiving situation good, and there is still great potential for export growth in the future [77][79][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the crude oil industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC+ will continue to suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the long - term supply - demand of crude oil remains in a relatively loose pattern. However, short - term geopolitical situations are the main disturbances, and oil prices may still maintain a wide - range fluctuating trend [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview 3.1.1 Supply (Medium - Long Term) - EIA slightly raised its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026, expecting 10,616 million barrels per day in 2025, a rise of 299 million barrels per day compared to 2024 [3] - In November, OPEC countries' crude oil production was 28.48 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.1 million barrels per day from October; Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14.585 million barrels per day, an increase of 4.5 million barrels per day from October (OPEC data). IEA data showed that OPEC countries' production in November was 28.99 million barrels per day, a decrease of 25 million barrels per day from October, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14.26 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10 million barrels per day from October [3] 3.1.2 Demand (Medium - Long Term) - EIA raised its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026. The growth rate in 2025 is 1.14 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.09 million barrels per day compared to the November forecast [3] - OPEC kept its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026, with a growth rate of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, the same as the November forecast [3] - IEA slightly raised its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026. The growth rate in 2025 is 0.83 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.042 million barrels per day compared to the November forecast [3] 3.1.3 Inventory (Short Term) - In the week ending January 9, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.81% increase, against an expected decrease of 1.702 million barrels and a previous decrease of 3.832 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories in Oklahoma were 0.745 million barrels, compared to 0.728 million barrels in the previous week [3] - In terms of refined oil products, gasoline inventories increased by 8.977 million barrels (expected 3.565 million barrels, previous 7.702 million barrels), refined oil inventories decreased by 0.029 million barrels (expected 0.512 million barrels, previous 5.594 million barrels), and heating oil inventories decreased by 0.745 million barrels (previous 0.672 million barrels) [3] 3.1.4 Producing Country Policies (Medium - Long Term) - OPEC+ reaffirmed in the January meeting to maintain stable production in the first quarter of 2026 and suspended the previously planned production increase measures. The meeting lasted about 10 minutes and did not cover the recent Venezuelan geopolitical event [3] - A U.S. government official said that the U.S. had completed the sale of the first batch of Venezuelan oil, with a transaction value of $500 million, and more oil would be sold in the coming days and weeks [3] 3.1.5 Geopolitics (Short Term) - Trump postponed the decision on whether to launch a military strike against Iran. Military options are still on the table, but the uncertainty has significantly increased. Advisors told Trump that if a large - scale strike is carried out, the U.S. needs to deploy more military forces in the Middle East [3] - On January 15, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on multiple Iranian individuals and entities and multiple foreign companies associated with Iran. Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Larryjani was included in the sanctions list [3] 3.1.6 Macro - finance (Short Term) - U.S. non - farm payroll data showed that overall inflation in December 2025 met expectations, and core inflation was slightly lower than expected. The year - on - year growth rate of the overall CPI was 2.7%, the same as the previous value, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.3% as expected; the year - on - year growth rate of the core CPI was 2.6% (expected 2.7%), and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.2% (expected 0.3%) [3] - The CME "FedWatch" tool showed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January was 5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 95%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut was 20.8%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 78.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut was 0.9% [3] 3.1.7 Investment View and Trading Strategy - Investment view: The oil price is expected to oscillate [3] - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data 3.2.1 Market Review - This week, oil prices fluctuated widely, rising first and then falling, mainly trading around the U.S. military strike on Iran event. As Trump postponed the decision on whether to strike Iran, oil prices dropped from their highs. As of January 16, the closing price of the WTI crude oil main contract was $59.22 per barrel, a weekly increase of $0.44 per barrel (+0.75%); the closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was $64.20 per barrel, a weekly increase of $1.12 per barrel (+1.87%); the closing price of the SC crude oil main contract was 438.8 yuan per barrel, a weekly increase of 6.1 yuan per barrel (+1.41%) [6] 3.2.2 Month - to - Month Spreads and Internal - External Spreads - Near - month spreads and internal - external spreads declined [9] 3.2.3 Crack Spreads - Gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined, and jet fuel crack spreads also declined [27][38] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Production - In November 2025, global crude oil and related liquid production was 108.7 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.444 million barrels per day from October (EIA data) [62] - In November 2025, OPEC countries' crude oil production was 28.48 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.1 million barrels per day from October; Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14.585 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.045 million barrels per day from October (OPEC data). IEA data showed that OPEC countries' production in November was 28.99 million barrels per day, a decrease of 25 million barrels per day from October, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14.26 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10 million barrels per day from October [3][62] - As of the week ending January 9, U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.058 million barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day; U.S. commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.753 million barrels per day from the previous week; the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease compared to the same period last year [86] - As of the week ending January 16, the total number of active U.S. drilling rigs was 544, compared to 546 in the previous week [86] 3.3.2 Inventory - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.391 million barrels, and Cushing inventories increased by 0.745 million barrels [87] - Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [95] 3.3.3 Demand - In the U.S., implied gasoline and diesel demand increased, and refinery operating rates remained at a high level. Refinery operating rates rose 0.60% to 95.30%, and crude oil processing volume increased by 0.1 million barrels per day to 17.3 million barrels per day. Gasoline implied demand was 9.133 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.0264 million barrels per day; distillate implied demand was 5.5201 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.7972 million barrels per day [108][117] - In China, refinery capacity utilization rates slightly declined. In the third week of 2026 (January 9 - 15), the capacity utilization rate of China's independent refined oil refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 61.01%, a 0.31 - percentage - point decline from the previous week. The profit margin of refineries narrowed, and the operating loads of independent refineries in regions such as Shandong decreased [118][119] 3.3.4 Macro - finance - U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, and the U.S. dollar index rebounded [142] 3.3.5 CFTC Positions - Speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil increased [152]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, domestic commodities reached a peak and then declined, with market sentiment significantly cooling down. Industrial products followed a similar trend, while agricultural products fluctuated downward. The main reasons include the decline of precious metals from their high levels, the mixed US data with the Fed's rate - cut rhythm unchanged, and the rapid changes in geopolitical situations such as in Iran leading to the rise - and - fall of crude oil prices [3]. - Although US inflation continues to slow down, the Fed's rate - cut rhythm has not accelerated further, which has limited impact on boosting market expectations. Domestic policies are starting to take effect, with the coordinated efforts of expanding domestic demand and anti - involution policies expected to improve the long - term low - price situation, but the current weak reality still puts pressure on the rebound of the commodity market. Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Venezuela, Iran, and the Greenland issue are changing rapidly, which may cause disturbances to the prices of energy and metals [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Review**: Domestic commodities in China showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week, with market sentiment cooling down. Industrial products followed the same pattern, and agricultural products declined. The decline of precious metals, mixed US data, and geopolitical changes in Iran were the main influencing factors [3]. - **Overseas**: - In December 2025, the overall CPI in the US increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected. Although inflation is cooling, it is still above the 2% policy target, and the probability of a rate cut in January is extremely low, with June being the mainstream market expectation [3]. - The Fed's latest "Beige Book" shows that the US economic activity is picking up, employment is stable, and wages are growing moderately, strengthening the expectation of a soft landing of the US economy [3]. - US President Trump announced tariffs on countries trading with Iran and eight European countries, which will have an impact on international trade [3]. - **Domestic**: - In December 2025, China's export and import amounts increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus expanded. Fiscal expansion and the high matching of China's advantageous industries with global demand are expected to support export growth [3]. - In December 2025, the stock social financing growth rate decreased slightly, M2 growth rate increased, M1 growth rate decreased, and the "M2 - M1 scissors gap" widened. The financial data showed the characteristics of "abundant in total amount and differentiated in structure" [3]. - The central bank will introduce two policy measures in 2026, which send a signal of coordinated efforts through aggregate and structural policies and reserve space for the use of aggregate tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [3]. - **Commodity Views**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and the commodity market has declined in the short term. The Fed's unchanged rate - cut rhythm, the current weak reality in China, and geopolitical factors are the main reasons [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - US inflation data in December 2025 showed a cooling trend, but it is still above the policy target, and the market has different expectations for the Fed's rate - cut time [7][11]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" reflects the positive situation of the US economy, strengthening the expectation of a soft landing [3]. - US President Trump's tariff announcements on Iran - trading countries and eight European countries will affect international trade and market sentiment [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - In December 2025, China's export and import amounts increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus expanded. China's exports to non - US economies were strong, while exports to the US continued to decline [23]. - The financial data in December 2025 showed the characteristics of "abundant in total amount and differentiated in structure", with the stock social financing growth rate decreasing slightly, M2 growth rate increasing, M1 growth rate decreasing, and the "M2 - M1 scissors gap" widening [26]. - The central bank will introduce relevant policies in 2026 to support economic transformation and development and reserve space for the use of aggregate tools [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - High - frequency data on开工率 in the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace开工率 showed certain trends and fluctuations [33][35]. - Data on agricultural product prices such as vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index, showed different price trends [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon (SI): Bearish [6] - Polysilicon (PS): Hold [7] - Lithium carbonate (LC): Sideways [82] 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of new energy products are at a high level with increased volatility. The industrial silicon market is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, leading to a bearish outlook. The polysilicon market has poor contract liquidity, so investors are advised to be cautious. The lithium carbonate market is expected to be sideways, with fundamental support but price adjustment pressure at high levels [6][7][82] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production was 78,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77%; the number of open furnaces was 221, a week - on - week decrease of 7. In December, the production was 397,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15% and a year - on - year increase of 19.75%; the planned production in January was 377,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 24.26%. The supply side is generally bullish, but there are differences among regions [6] - **Demand Side**: The weekly production of polysilicon was 22,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.27%. The weekly production of silicone was 43,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90%. The demand side is bearish [6] - **Inventory Side**: The visible inventory was 510,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.99%. The inventory side is neutral [6] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton was 9,054.17 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%; the gross profit per ton was - 81 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton. The cost and profit situation is neutral [6] - **Investment View**: Bearish, with a weak support for prices below [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Short position. Risks to watch include production cuts and restarts by large manufacturers and changes in environmental protection policies [6] 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production was 22,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.27%. In December, the production was 115,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79% and a year - on - year increase of 18.71%; the planned production in January was 107,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% and a year - on - year increase of 14.19%. The supply side is bullish [7] - **Demand Side**: The weekly production of silicon wafers was 10.45GW, a week - on - week increase of 1.91%. The demand side is bullish [7] - **Inventory Side**: The factory inventory was 316,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.60%, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The registered warehouse receipts were 13,680 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.07%, showing continuous growth. The inventory side is bearish [7] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton was 42,969 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.41%; the gross profit per ton was 16,241 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 174 yuan. The cost and profit situation is bearish [7] - **Investment View**: Hold. Existing contracts have poor liquidity, and investors are reminded to pay attention to price fluctuations and liquidity risks [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold. Risks to watch include production cuts and restarts by large manufacturers and changes in anti - involution policies [7] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production was 22,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%. In December, the production was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04% and a year - on - year increase of 41.00%; the planned production in January was about 98,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year increase of 56.78%. The supply side is neutral [82] - **Import Side**: In November, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.64% and a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The import side is bearish [82] - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate was 97,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.19%. The weekly production of ternary materials was 18,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. The material demand side is bearish [82] - **Terminal Demand**: In December, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.718 million, a month - on - month decrease of 8.60% and a year - on - year increase of 12.29%. The terminal demand side is bearish [82] - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) was 10,970 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24%, showing a slight inventory reduction. The inventory side is bullish [82] - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external - purchased ore lithium extraction was 148,815 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.06%. The cost and profit situation is bearish [82] - **Investment View**: Sideways. Fundamentals support prices, but there are differences at high prices, and there may be adjustment pressure [82] - **Trading Strategy**: Sideways position. Risks to watch include production cuts at the mining end, changes in environmental protection policies, and disturbances from large power manufacturers [82]

Industry Investment Ratings - Macrofinance: Index (Long-term bullish, short-term shock adjustment), Treasury bonds (Shock), Copper (Shock), Aluminum (Shock), Alumina (Shock), Zinc (Shock), Nickel (High-level shock), Stainless steel (High-level shock), Tin (Potential for increase), Precious metals (High-level wide-range shock), Industrial silicon and polysilicon (Bearish), Lithium carbonate (No clear rating), Rebar (Shock), Iron ore (Shock), Coke (Shock), Coking coal (Bullish), Anthracite (Bullish), Palm oil (Shock), Soybean oil (Bullish), Rapeseed oil (Bearish), Cotton (Shock), Sugar (Bearish), Corn (Shock), Soybeans (Bearish), Pulp (Shock), Logs (Shock), Live pigs (Shock), Fuel oil (Shock), Bitumen (Shock), BR rubber (Bullish), PTA (Shock), Ethylene glycol (Shock), Styrene (Bearish), Urea (Shock), PF (Shock), PVC (Shock), LPG (Bullish), Container shipping European line (Shock) [1] Core Views - The policy aims for a "slow bull" in the stock index rather than suppressing the market. The short-term shock adjustment space is expected to be limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout. Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels. The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The prices of precious metals are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are bearish. The prices of black metals are affected by weak reality and strong expectations. The prices of agricultural products are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and weather. The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and cost support [1] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - Index: The stock index rose strongly in the first half of the week and then adjusted with policy regulation. The short-term shock adjustment space is limited, and long-term bulls can choose opportunities to layout [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Pay attention to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The downstream demand is relatively pressured, and with the US suspending the tax on key minerals, the short-term concern about copper hoarding has eased, causing copper prices to fall from high levels [1] - Aluminum: The recent industrial drive is limited, and the macro sentiment has weakened, causing aluminum prices to fall from high levels [1] - Alumina: The alumina production capacity still has a large release space, and the industrial side weakens the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1] - Zinc: The cost center of the zinc fundamentals is stable, but the inventory pressure is obvious. The current price has insufficient fundamental support, and the zinc price fluctuates in a range under the repeated macro sentiment [1] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore remains tight, but the continuous accumulation of global nickel inventories may restrict the rise of nickel prices. The short-term nickel price fluctuates at a high level and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy changes in Indonesia, the macro sentiment, and the futures positions [1] - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel iron continues to rise, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and the steel mill's production schedule in January increases. Pay attention to the actual production situation of the steel mill. The stainless steel futures fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term [1] - Tin: The short-term macro sentiment is repeated, and the tin price has corrected. However, the supply vulnerability of tin ore still exists, and it still has the driving force to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low absorption [1] - Precious metals: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the rise of precious metal prices has slowed down. The silver price has fallen under pressure. The short-term gold and silver prices are expected to shift to high-level wide-range shocks. In the long term, it is recommended to allocate platinum at low levels or choose the arbitrage strategy of [long platinum, short palladium] [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The continuous rise kinetic energy is insufficient. Unilaterally long orders should leave the market and wait and see; participate in the positive arbitrage position in the spot and futures [1] - Iron ore: The sector rotates, but the upper pressure of iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long at this position. The weak reality and strong expectation are intertwined. The actual supply and demand continue to be weak, and the energy consumption double control and anti-involution may disturb the supply [1] - Coke: The short-term market sentiment warms up, and the supply and demand are supported, but the medium-term supply and demand continue to be surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - Coking coal: If the expectation of "capacity reduction" continues to ferment and the spot replenishes the inventory before the Spring Festival, coking coal may still have room to rise, but the actual rise space is difficult to judge, and the volatility increases after a large rise. It is necessary to be cautious [1] - Anthracite: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural Products - Cotton: The domestic new crop production expectation is strong, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start-up maintains a low level, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "supported but no driving force." Pay attention to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document on direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the peak season demand from March to April [1] - Sugar: The global sugar is in surplus, and the domestic new crop supply increases. The short consensus is relatively consistent. If the disk continues to fall, the lower cost support is strong, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Pay attention to the changes in the capital side [1] - Corn: The grain sales progress of Northeast corn is relatively fast, the port inventory is low, and the middle and lower reaches have a certain replenishment demand before the festival. The short-term spot is still relatively strong, and the disk is expected to fluctuate in a range [1] - Soybeans: With the progress of the Brazilian harvest, the Brazilian CNF premium is expected to reflect the selling pressure of the soybean harvest. Coupled with the pressure on the rapeseed sector from the Sino-Canadian easing, the MO5 is expected to be under pressure, and the MO5 - M09 is expected to be in a reverse arbitrage [1] - Pulp: The pulp fell today due to the decline of the commodity macro. The overall did not break through the shock range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has recently shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding. It is expected that the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the external quotation in January still shows a slight decline, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack driving factors for rising. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] - Live pigs: The spot and futures of live pigs gradually stabilize. The demand support and the unsold slaughter weight, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Products - Fuel oil: OPEC+ suspends production increase until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement affects. The US sanctions the Venezuelan crude oil export. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five-Year Plan rush work is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The asphalt profit is high [1] - Bitumen: The raw material cost support is strong. The spot-futures price difference rebounds greatly. The intermediate inventory increases [1] - BR rubber: The disk position decreases, and the new warehouse receipts increase. The BR increase slows down periodically. The spot leads the rise to repair the basis, and the BR continues to pay attention to the upward driving force above 12,000. The BD/BR listing price continues to be raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber narrows. The overseas cracking device capacity is cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The naphtha tax also has a positive support for the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high operation and high inventory, and the transaction center is average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber [1] - PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, and this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The PX fundamentals are indeed supported, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. The domestic PTA maintains high operation. The gasoline price difference is still at a high level, which supports the aromatics [1] - Ethylene glycol: The market spreads the news that two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, with a total annual production capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline due to the stimulation of supply-side news. The current polyester downstream start-up rate maintains above 90%, and the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. The suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while the buyers insist on pressing prices due to the weak downstream polymer demand and profit compression. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a bullish sentiment due to the export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward driving force needs to pay attention to the drive of the overseas market [1] - Urea: The export sentiment eases slightly, and the domestic demand is insufficient. The upper space is limited. The lower has the support of anti-involution and the cost side [1] - PF: The geopolitical conflict intensifies, and the crude oil has a rising risk. The maintenance decreases, and the operation load is at a high level. The long-distance arrival increases the supply. The downstream demand operation weakens. The price returns to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: There is less global production in 2026, and the future expectation is optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate is cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing to export later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the PVC production capacity to be cleared [1] - LPG: The January CP rises unexpectedly, and the cost support of imported gas is strong. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East escalates, and the short-term risk premium rises. The EIA weekly C3 inventory accumulation trend slows down, and it is expected to gradually turn to destocking. The domestic port inventory also decreases [1] - Container shipping European line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. The airlines are still cautious in their tentative re-navigation. The pre-festival replenishment demand still exists [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - LLDPE is experiencing a low - level recovery, but the rebound is limited. In the short term, the market has no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [2][3]. - PP has insufficient driving force, and the rebound is limited. In the short term, the market lacks obvious driving factors, and it is expected to fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis 3.1.1 Supply - This week, China's polyethylene production totaled 669,800 tons, a decrease of 2.47% from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 81.6%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points from the previous period. Due to new maintenance plans of some enterprises and extended overall maintenance time, the capacity utilization rate decreased compared with last week [3]. 3.1.2 Demand - The average operating rate of downstream products of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 1.0%, and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 0.8%. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products decreased by 0.3%. In November, China's polyethylene imports were 1.0622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.93% and a month - on - month increase of 5.04% [3]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 350,300 tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 11.41%. The inventory trend changed from increasing to decreasing. The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses was 484,280 tons, a decrease of 520 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11% and a year - on - year increase of 26.48% [3]. 3.1.4 Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around 199, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. 3.1.5 Profit - The costs of oil - based and coal - based production increased by 220 and 132 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous period. The costs of ethylene - based, methanol - based, and ethane - based production decreased by 92, 93, and 64 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous period. The import profits of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE changed compared with the previous period [3]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The absolute spot price is relatively low, and the main contract is at a discount [3]. 3.1.7 Macro - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro - sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [3]. 3.2 PP Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - This week, China's domestic polypropylene production was 780,800 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year increase of 5.96%. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 75.62%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15%, and the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec decreased by 3.33% [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - The average downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53%. As the Spring Festival approaches, some traditional terminal industries such as packaging, building materials, and daily necessities have entered the shutdown and stockpiling stage in advance. The average operating rate of CPP sample enterprises remained the same as last week [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The total commercial inventory of Chinese polypropylene was 695,500 tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.45%. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 431,000 tons, a decrease of 36,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene traders decreased by 10,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.27%. The inventory of Chinese polypropylene ports decreased by 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70% [4]. 3.2.4 Basis - The current basis of the main contract is around 54, and the futures price is at a discount [4]. 3.2.5 Profit - This week, the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production were repaired, while the profits of oil - based and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production declined. The average weekly import profit of Chinese polypropylene samples was - 243.85 yuan/ton, an increase of 44.18 yuan/ton from last week, a month - on - month increase of 15.34% [4]. 3.2.6 Valuation - The absolute spot price is relatively low, and the main contract is at a premium [4]. 3.2.7 Macro Policy - Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of rising international oil prices. The macro - sentiment is positive, and the RMB has appreciated [4]. 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes - The report provides a summary of the main weekly data of PP and LLDPE, including futures prices, spot prices, raw material prices, basis, inventory, and operating rates, showing their changes compared with last week [6]. 3.4 PE Fundamental Changes - Supply: This week, China's PE production decreased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased. Some enterprises had new maintenance plans, and the overall maintenance time was extended [3]. - Demand: The demand for PE downstream products decreased, and the operating rates of some products such as agricultural films and packaging films declined. In November, imports increased month - on - month [3]. - Inventory: The inventory of PE producers decreased, and the social sample warehouse inventory increased slightly. The inventory was transferred smoothly from producers to downstream [3]. - Cost: Energy price cuts led to a decrease in production costs [24]. - Profit: The profit of PE production was lower than the same period last year [27]. - Import and Export: PE exports were better than the same period last year [31]. 3.5 PP Fundamental Changes - Capacity and Production: This week, China's PP production increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate changed [4]. - Inventory: The inventory at various levels was higher than the same period last year, but the port inventory was lower than the same period last year [49][57]. - Downstream Demand: The downstream demand for PP was divergent, and the operating rates of different products changed differently [68]. - Production Profit: The production profit of PP was similar to that of last year [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term supply in the Middle East is tight, the domestic PDH operation rate remains high, and the demand supports the market. The domestic port inventory is decreasing. Recently, the EIA C3 inventory has turned to decline, the domestic civil LPG price has risen, and with the increase in risk premium and contract price, the PG price still shows a wide - range volatile and upward trend [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Energy Product Price Monitoring - Various energy products have different price changes. For example, the current price of LPG is 4137 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.27%, a weekly decline of 1.99%, a monthly increase of 0.93%, and an annual decline of 8.03% [3]. 3.2 LPG Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commercial volume was about 518,700 tons (a 0.12% increase). Among them, the civil LPG commercial volume was 216,500 tons (a 0.14% decrease), the industrial LPG was 189,300 tons (a 0.11% decrease), and the ether - after C4 was 167,100 tons (a 0.12% decrease). The LPG arrival volume last week was 540,000 tons (a 2.08% increase). In Xinjiang, enterprise out - put increased, while in Shandong, some enterprises reduced device loads or used resources internally [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - In winter, the heating demand remains, and the LPG combustion demand is gradually improving, reaching a relatively high level. PDH devices are operating at a high load, but the device profit loss is intensifying. The propane purchase demand of port chemical enterprises is relatively rigid, but there are news of device reduction, and the expected operating rate will gradually decline, and the propane chemical demand will fall. MTBE profit is in loss, the overseas olefin blending oil demand slows down, the domestic export window closes, and most orders have been executed, which restricts the civil LPG price trend [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was 156,700 tons (a 1.20% decrease), and the port inventory was 2,027,800 tons (a 4.89% decrease). The low - supply situation of refineries continues, the market trading atmosphere is mild, and the shipment of manufacturers in many places is smooth, so the storage capacity rate continues to decline. The port arrival volume has a slight increase but is still at a low level, the import resources are insufficiently replenished, and the inventory still shows a downward trend [4]. 3.2.4 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis is 288.80 yuan/ton in East China, 763.60 yuan/ton in South China, and 196.60 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume is 5977 lots, a decrease of 36 lots, and the lowest deliverable area is Shandong [4]. 3.2.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation are [not fully provided in the text]. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong are also [not fully provided in the text] [4]. 3.2.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio is [not fully provided in the text] (a 3.35% decrease), and the PG secondary - to - primary month spread is - 242 yuan/ton (a 26.04% increase). In the fourth quarter, the LPG price is firm, the crude oil shows a bearish trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread has a weakening trend [4]. 3.2.7 Other Factors - China's CPI year - on - year growth rate in December 2025 reached the fastest in the past three years; the US ADP employment data in December showed weak labor demand. Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel Group have implemented a restructuring. Trump's remarks have led to repeated fermentations of risk events in the US - Venezuela, Middle East, and Russia - Ukraine regions, greatly increasing the volatility of crude oil prices and driving up the price fluctuations of oil - chemical products [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to PG2 - 3 positive arbitrage, PG3 - 4 reverse arbitrage, long SC and short PG, long PP and short PG [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's January supply - demand report maintained the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 33 bushels per acre, further reduced US soybean exports to 1.575 billion bushels, and increased the end - of - season inventory forecast for 2025/26 to 350 million bushels, with the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio rising to 8.2%. The report also predicted Brazil's 2025/26 soybean output at 178 million tons and kept Argentina's soybean output unchanged. As Brazil's harvest progresses, the QNF premium in Brazil is expected to reflect the selling pressure of a bumper soybean harvest. Coupled with the pressure on the rapeseed - meal relationship due to improved China - Canada relations, the M05 contract is expected to face downward pressure [7] - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and it is expected that the inventory will be depleted at an accelerated pace in January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has slightly increased [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis Data - On January 16, 43% soybean meal spot basis: Dalian was 493 (up 13), Tianjin was 433 (down 7), Rizhao was 393 (up 13), Zhangjiagang was 373 (down 7), Dongguan was 373 (up 13), Zhanjiang was 423 (down 7), and Fangcheng was 433 (up 13). Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 157 (up 28). M3 - 5 was 351 (down 9), and RM5 - 9 was - 68 (unchanged) [4] 3.2. Inventory Data - The report presents charts of national major oil mills' soybean inventory, China's port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days from 2020 - 2026, but no specific numerical data is summarized [9][10] 3.3.开机 and压榨情况 (开机 and Pressing Situation) - The report shows the charts of the national major oil mills'开机 rate (operating rate), soybean pressing volume, and downstream提货量 (pick - up volume) from 2020 - 2026, but no specific numerical data is summarized [6] 3.4. Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 600, and the spread on the main contract was 472 (up 15). The Brazilian soybean CNF premium in 2025 and the import soybean gross profit on the futures market are presented in the chart, but no specific numerical data is summarized. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.9381, and the futures market crushing profit was 165 yuan/ton [9] 3.5. International Data - As of January 10, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 0.6%. As of January 14, Argentina's soybean sowing progress was 93.9%, slightly behind the same period last year. The proportion of soybeans in good condition was 61% (last week: 65%, same period last year: 38%). Based on domestic ship - booking, the expected domestic soybean arrivals in January were 6.2 million tons, 5.1 million tons in February, and 4.58 million tons in March [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: The report gives a rating of "oscillating" for the short - term investment in the synthetic rubber industry, and "long - term bullish" for the long - term [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of butadiene are strong, while the "high - start, high - inventory" situation of butadiene rubber continues. The number of warehouse receipts on the futures market has increased, and the recent futures volume and price have increased simultaneously. In the short term, the large increase in BR, combined with risk premiums, will lead to a phased adjustment of the futures market. In December, the export volume of synthetic rubber is expected to continue to increase, and the import volume of butadiene will decrease month - on - month. With long - term positive expectations, the price of synthetic rubber is expected to have further upward space [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - During this period, the price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated strongly, and the spot price range moved up to 11,500 - 12,200 yuan/ton. The butadiene end continued to rise due to good domestic demand and rumors of butadiene export transactions, causing a significant increase in the production cost of butadiene rubber. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber remained high, and most brand spot resources were sufficient. The pressure on the supply side affected the upward movement of the negotiation center. The mainstream supply price of butadiene rubber increased slightly during the week, and the theoretical production profit turned into a loss. Traders actively tried to raise prices, but the downstream terminal procurement was negative and the price - pressing was firm. Although the spot price center gradually moved up, the transaction performance was poor [6]. 3.2 Impact Factors 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [missing data] tons (72%), with a capacity utilization rate of 69.37%; the high - cis butadiene rubber production was [missing data] tons (68%), with a capacity utilization rate of 79%. In terms of butadiene, Fujian United Petrochemical (180,000 tons) restarted on the 15th, and Hainan Refining & Chemical (130,000 tons) is expected to shut down at the end of the month. The butadiene production is expected to maintain a downward trend. In terms of butadiene rubber, except for the shutdown of the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical, the loads of other butadiene rubber plants are at a high level. The butadiene rubber plant of Maoming Petrochemical is expected to restart at the end of the month, and the supply will continue to be sufficient [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - For semi - steel tires, in the first ten days of the month, the market sales became increasingly sluggish, the terminal demand weakened, the channel transactions were sporadic, and the replenishment willingness continued to decrease. The factories launched a certain range of promotions this month, but the market has not yet had a clear guidance. For all - steel tires, in the first ten days of the month, the stocking willingness was low. Some merchants rushed to complete the annual task volume last month, and the inventory expanded significantly, weakening the ability to continuously purchase. Although some factories have clearly announced the profit - sharing policy for January, the inventory during the period is large, and the existing inventory is mainly digested. Some replenishment willingness is postponed to the middle or late ten days of the month [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 44,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.99%. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 34,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.50%. In terms of butadiene, although the high - price transactions of refineries were slightly slow, affecting the slow inventory reduction, there was no obvious inventory pressure overall. The arrival of imported ships was limited during the week, and the downstream raw material inventory was normally consumed. Although the market is expected to be strong in the later period, it is in the inventory reduction cycle. In terms of butadiene rubber, the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises have increased to varying degrees, and the warehouse receipts have increased significantly [4]. 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 365 yuan/ton, in East China is - 265 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 215 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The spread between RU - BR is 4,020 yuan/ton (12%); the spread between NR - BR is 930 yuan/ton (- 0.53%); the price ratio of BR - SC is - 0.35% [4]. 3.2.6 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation is 990 yuan/ton; the production gross profit of C4 extraction is 2,680.31 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber is - 237 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin is - 1.92% [4]. 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - China's CPI year - on - year growth rate in December 2025 reached the fastest in nearly three years; the US ADP employment data in December showed that labor demand was still weak. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council announced that, with the approval of the State Council, Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel will implement a restructuring. Iran is implementing a national - scale network control, which is related to continuous protests in many places. Trump arrested Maduro and summoned enterprises such as ExxonMobil and Chevron to the White House to discuss the oil investment plan in Venezuela. The Trump administration's attempt to occupy Greenland and seize Russian oil tankers has fermented again, triggering market panic about geopolitics [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Appropriately leave a long position, and be vigilant against the risk of capital profit - taking and callback. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key factors to watch: downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance conditions, and geopolitics [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's adjustment of structural monetary policy tools, including interest rate cuts and increased support for agriculture, small businesses, and private enterprises, aims to optimize the economic structure [5]. - The stock index market is currently experiencing short - term adjustments due to policy regulations, but the upward trend is expected to continue as the current strong capital - driven force and the domestic fundamentals in the bottom - building stage suggest that the upward pattern of the stock index has not ended. Long - term investors can consider long - term bullish positions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Money Market - DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a - 4.73bp change, DR007 at 1.44 with a - 5.94bp change, GC001 at 1.22 with a - 14.50bp change, and GC007 at 1.53 with a 0.50bp change. SHBOR 3M was 1.60 with no change, and LPR 5 - year was 3.50 with no change. 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds had respective changes of - 1.66bp, - 0.98bp, and - 0.34bp, while 10 - year US bonds rose 7.00bp [4]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 9515 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1387 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net injection of 8128 billion yuan. Also, 6000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase matured, and the central bank carried out 9000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations [4]. 3.2. Structural Monetary Policy Adjustments - On January 15, 2026, the central bank announced a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools. The one - year interest rate of various re - loans dropped to 1.25%, and other term - based interest rates were adjusted accordingly. The central bank also increased the amount of re - loans for agriculture and small businesses by 5000 billion yuan, and set up a 1 - trillion - yuan special re - loan for private enterprises, mainly supporting small and medium - sized private enterprises [5]. 3.3. Stock Index Market - The closing prices of major indices on a certain day: the CSI 300 was 4732 with a - 0.41% change, the SSE 50 was 3080 with a - 0.83% change, the CSI 500 was 8233 with a 0.11% change, and the CSI 1000 was 8233 with a - 0.10% change. The corresponding index futures also had different changes [5]. - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 0.57% to 4731.9, the SSE 50 fell 1.74% to 3079.8, the CSI 500 rose 2.18% to 8232.7, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.27% to 8232.7. The market liquidity remained abundant, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 6131.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the margin trading balance hitting a new high [5]. - Policy regulations led to short - term adjustments in the stock index market. The increase in the margin ratio for margin trading by exchanges and the large - scale selling of broad - based index ETFs by Central Huijin affected the market. However, considering the strong capital - driven force and the domestic fundamentals in the bottom - building stage, the upward trend of the stock index is expected to continue [6]. 3.4. Index Futures Basis - For the IF contract, the basis for the next - month contract was 1.42%, the current - quarter contract was 1.10%, and the next - quarter contract was 2.63%. For the IH contract, it was - 0.44%, - 0.90%, and 0.08% respectively. For the IC contract, it was 0.76%, 1.62%, and 4.79%, and for the IM contract, it was 1.04%, 3.89%, and 7.40% [7].