Guo Mao Qi Huo
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美联储内部分歧加剧,贵金属承压回落
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 08:18
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报(AU、AG)】 美联储内部分歧加剧,贵金属承压回落 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-11-24 白素娜 从业资格证号:F3023916 投资咨询证号:Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周贵金属有所承压,周线整体收跌。主要影响因素分析如下:(1)美联储官员上 半周表态偏鹰,加上美联储10月会议纪要进一步暴露美联储内部对于12月降息的分歧日益 加剧,同时美国政府明确10月非农、CPI数据均不公布,这意味着美联储官员在年内最后 一次会议前可能将同时失去就业、通胀两项关键经济数据,不得不促使美联储谨慎控制降 息节奏。受此影响,美联储12月降息概率骤降,美股、比特币等资产全线下挫,流动性紧 缩下贵金属价格亦承压下挫。但随着恐慌指数回升,上周五晚间,美联储官员安抚市场, 称预计未来还会进一步降息,且有官员表态预计不久美联储将重新扩表,美联储降息预期 再度回升,流动性紧缩风险有所缓和,贵金属跌幅收窄。(2)俄罗斯央行开始抛售实物 黄金,一度对金价 ...
甲醇周报(MA):进口卸货减少以及货物回流,港口库存出现下跌-20251124
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 08:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the methanol market is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the methanol market's supply and demand were basically balanced, with a slight increase in port arrivals but limited inventory fluctuations. Downstream demand recovered, and the operating rates of major downstream sectors such as olefins and dimethyl ether increased, driving up consumption. Coal prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and a slight increase in logistics freight rates supported the market. It is expected that methanol prices will maintain a stable and slightly stronger trend. Market participants are advised to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and changes in port inventory to seize market opportunities. The overall market shows a positive interaction between supply and demand, with limited price fluctuation space, and investors can moderately focus on structural opportunities [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - This week, methanol supply showed a steady and slightly increasing trend. Port arrivals increased slightly, and imports in South China significantly increased, leading to continuous inventory reduction in major consumption areas such as Guangdong and Fujian. In terms of logistics, freight rates in major methanol regions increased slightly, with the freight rates from Ordos to Dongying and from Shaanxi to Dongying increasing by about 9% and 5% respectively week - on - week, providing some cost support for supply. On the demand side, the operating rates of major downstream sectors such as methanol - to - olefins and dimethyl ether increased slightly, enhancing the overall digestion capacity of methanol. The market presented a positive interaction between supply and demand. Although supply increased slightly, supported by the recovery of downstream demand, supply and demand remained relatively balanced, and inventory fluctuations were limited. Overall, the methanol market supply was moderately loose, but supported by downstream demand, the market operated smoothly without obvious supply surplus or shortage [2] Demand - This week, methanol demand showed a structurally differentiated pattern. The demand in major downstream sectors such as olefins, dimethyl ether, and glacial acetic acid was good. The average weekly operating rate of olefin enterprises increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether increased significantly, mainly driven by the restart of Xinlianxin's plant. The operating load of the glacial acetic acid industry increased by 3.24 percentage points, and the resumption of production at plants such as Anhui Huayi promoted the overall recovery of the industry. However, the downstream demand for formaldehyde was obviously weak. Affected by environmental protection control in autumn and winter, the operating rates of the panel industry in northern Jiangsu and Henan decreased, resulting in a significant reduction in formaldehyde procurement demand. At the same time, the downstream loads of MTBE and methane chloride decreased, while products such as DMF and methylal maintained stable operation. Overall, methanol demand presented a pattern of "strong and weak co - existing". The demand in major downstream sectors was well - supported, but the demand in some areas weakened due to policy influence. The overall market demand was moderate, providing some support for methanol prices but without obvious upward momentum [2] Inventory - This week, methanol inventory showed a regional differentiated pattern. The inventory in port areas continued to decline. In consumption areas such as Guangdong and Fujian, due to the rigid demand consumption and stable提货 volume of downstream industries, the inventory decreased steadily. The total inventory in major ports was 1.6085 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.91%, indicating that the overall inventory pressure had been relieved. The estimated port arrivals in late November are expected to increase slightly, but due to the continuous support of the reverse - flow window for提货 and the uncertain unloading situation, inventory fluctuations are limited. The inventory of upstream production enterprises remained at a low level, providing some support for the production areas. However, against the background of high inventory supply in coastal areas, attention should be paid to the possible impact on regional prices if low - priced imported goods flow back to inland markets such as Shandong. Overall, methanol inventory was within a reasonable range, supply and demand were basically balanced, and the market operated steadily [2] Methanol Profit - The profits of methanol production enterprises were generally under pressure, and all process routes showed a downward trend. The profit decline of coal - to - methanol enterprises was the most obvious, mainly due to the increase in coal prices pushing up costs, while the methanol market price decreased simultaneously, forming a double squeeze. The theoretical profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia has turned negative, and the loss has widened compared with last week. Other process routes such as coke oven gas - to - methanol and natural gas - to - methanol also faced profit pressure, and the loss of natural gas - to - methanol in Southwest China intensified. Overall, the pressure on the cost side and the weakness on the price side formed a double squeeze, continuously narrowing the profit margin of methanol production enterprises, and the overall industry profit performance was weak [2] Downstream Profit - The profits of downstream industries showed an obvious recovery trend, mainly due to the relief of cost pressure brought about by the decline in the price of raw material methanol. The profit improvement in the MTO and glacial acetic acid industries was the most significant, and the profit levels increased significantly. Although the MTBE industry was weak in its own market, after the reduction of raw material costs, its profit still failed to turn positive, only showing a narrowing of the loss. The profits of industries such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and chloride fluctuated slightly and remained relatively stable. The improvement of downstream industry profits provided positive support for methanol demand, helped relieve the supply - demand pressure in the methanol market, and provided some bottom support for methanol prices [2] Spot Prices - The report provides the spot prices of methanol in various regions from November 19th to 21st, 2025, including regions such as Taicang (import, different time periods), Hebei, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Sichuan, Dongying, etc., along with their daily and previous - day price changes and corresponding percentage changes [4] Market Charts - The report includes charts such as the trend chart of the main methanol futures contract (showing closing price, settlement price, and trading volume), basis and monthly spread charts, methanol production and operating rate charts, profit charts of different methanol production processes, factory inventory and order quantity charts, port inventory charts, and profit and operating rate charts of downstream industries [5][8][14]
原油周报(SC):俄乌和平协议推进,国际油价弱势下行-20251124
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 08:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, long - term supply and demand remains bearish. With the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, oil prices will still fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA slightly raises the forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC's October production data shows different trends for OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries. IEA also reports production changes in October. Overall, it is bearish [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil and related liquid demand growth in 2025 and 2026, with a neutral outlook [3] - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreases, while strategic petroleum reserve inventory increases. There are also changes in refined oil inventories, showing a bullish sign [3] - **Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC+ plans to increase production slightly in December, which may exacerbate concerns about market supply glut. Saudi Arabia's exports and production reach new highs, being bearish [3] - **Geopolitics (Short - Term)**: The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan and U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies are expected to have a bearish impact on oil prices [3] - **Macro - Finance (Short - Term)**: U.S. employment data and the Fed's interest - rate cut probability changes are bearish factors for oil prices [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rebounds; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [3] Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and the rise of the U.S. dollar index lead to a weak decline in international oil prices. As of November 21, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all fall [7] - **Month - to - Month Spread & Domestic - Foreign Spread**: Near - month spreads weaken, while domestic - foreign spreads strengthen [11] - **Forward Curve**: Near - month spreads strengthen [24] - **Crack Spread**: Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel crack spreads all strengthen [31][43] Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In October 2025, global crude oil production decreases according to EIA. Different organizations report different production trends for OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries. U.S. production also shows changes [65][90] - **Inventory**: U.S. commercial inventory decreases, and Cushing inventory also declines. Northwest European crude oil inventory rises, while Singapore fuel oil inventory falls [91][99] - **Demand**: In the U.S., gasoline implied demand decreases, and refinery operating rates increase. In China, refinery weekly crude oil processing volume shows different trends, and refinery profits improve [109][127] - **Macro - Finance**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December decreases, and the U.S. dollar index rebounds [140] - **CFTC Positioning**: Speculative net short positions in WTI crude oil increase [143] Team Introduction - The energy and chemical research center team of Guomao Futures has 6 members with diverse professional backgrounds and rich experience in fundamental and spot - futures research. The team has won many awards [155]
现货价格阴跌,盘面震荡偏弱
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 08:08
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the short - term market has no obvious drivers, and it is expected to be mainly in a range - bound state, which is rated as "oscillating" [3] Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is declining slightly, and the futures market is oscillating weakly. Factors such as supply, demand, inventory, profit, and valuation all have different impacts on the market, resulting in an overall situation of weak fluctuations [3] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 tons to 84 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. There were regional differences in load changes [3] - **Demand**: Alumina production declined, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 90.09%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59%. The comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remained flat [3] - **Inventory**: Although there was some destocking, the inventory of sample enterprises increased. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 427,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.32% and a year - on - year increase of 80.65%. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage ratio increased [3] - **Profit**: The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 97%. The average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31.90% [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price was neutral, the absolute futures price was low, and the near - month contract was at a discount [3] - **Macro Policy**: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector subsided, and the market traded based on fundamentals [3] - **Investment View and Strategy**: The short - term market is expected to oscillate. There are no suggestions for unilateral and arbitrage trading [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The futures market was range - bound. The Shandong spot market was weak, and the futures had weak bottom support. The liquid chlorine price was higher than in the first half of the year, and the chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. The subsequent supply pressure may increase, and the spot price is expected to decline oscillatingly [9] - **Spot Market**: The spot price was declining slightly [7] - **Position**: The total position increased, and the far - month contracts saw an increase in positions [25] Part Three: Fundamental Data of Caustic Soda Supply and Demand - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply was tight, and electricity prices rose [33] - **Production**: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased [37] - **Chlor - Alkali Profit**: The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit decreased [38] - **Downstream Price**: The alumina price declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [41] - **Alumina**: Alumina production recovered, and inventory accumulated. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new plants, the production rate in Henan increased significantly [53][54] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum demand entered the seasonal off - season, and production started to decline [64][65] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The production rate rebounded [72] - **Subsequent Maintenance**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans, including full - stop, half - load, and planned maintenance at different times [77]
纸浆周报(SP):纸浆交易逻辑转向“弱需求”,考虑1-5反套-20251124
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 08:04
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【纸浆周报(SP)】 纸浆交易逻辑转向"弱需求",考虑1-5反套 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-24 杨璐琳 从业资格证号:F3042528 投资咨询证号:Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号: 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 F03134647 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 纸浆交易逻辑转向"弱需求",考虑1-5反套 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 智利Arauco公司10月针叶浆银星报价680美元/吨,阔叶浆明星报价540美元/吨,本色浆金星报价590美元/吨,进口报价总体表现为针叶 | 供给 | 偏空 | | | 浆下降,阔叶浆上涨的情况;2025年10月中国纸浆产量为208.4万吨,环比上涨10.2%,纸浆供给端较为宽松。 | | | | | 需求 | 中性偏多 | 主要木浆用纸产量基本保持稳定,白卡纸价格出现明显上涨且有去库的趋势,生活用纸价格略有上涨,其余纸种保持稳定。 | | | 截 ...
合成橡胶投资周报:宏观利好预期支撑,胶价试探性稳步抬升-20251124
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 08:04
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 国贸期货研究院:叶海文 从业资格证号:F3071622 投资咨询证号:Z0014205 国贸期货研究院:施宇龙 从业资格证号:F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶:宏观利好预期支撑,胶价试探性稳步抬升 宏观利好预期支撑,胶价试探性稳步抬升 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | (1)上周国内丁二烯产量 11 56 万吨( 1 75% ),产能利用率为 72 53 %;高顺顺丁产量 2 92 万吨( 3 88% ),产能利用率为 72 64 %; | | 供给 | 中性 | (2)丁二烯方面,周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化、广州石化、镇海炼化等装置维持停车状态,其余装置暂无新的明显变化,广西石化稳定释放产量, | | | | 影响总产量仍有增加;顺丁橡胶方面,振华新材料高顺顺丁橡胶装置重启,浙江石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修,茂名石化顺丁装置预计下周 ...
国贸期货黑色金属周报-20251124
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 08:03
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-11-24 张宝慧 从业资格证号:F0286636 投资咨询证号:Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号:F03094002 投资咨询证号:Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号:F03117750 投资咨询证号:Z0022680 目录 03 铁矿石 铁 矿 基 本 面 依 然 偏 弱 , 上 方 压 力 明 确 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议,期市有风险,投资需谨慎 01 钢材 02 焦煤焦炭 价 格 低 位 区 间 震 荡 , 等 待 新 驱 动 焦 炭 提 降 预 期 增 强 , 盘 面 贴 水 计 价 2 - 3 轮预期 01 PART ONE 钢材 钢材:价格低位区间震荡,等待新驱动 | G国贸期货 | | --- | | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周铁水产量弱稳,未能延续上涨,当周铁 ...
塑料数据周报(PP、PE)-20251124
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 07:48
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 叶海文 从业资格证号:F3071622 投资咨询证号:Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号:F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 L L DPE:宏观情绪偏弱 ,盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | (1)本周,我国LLDPE产量总计在30.46吨,较上周下跌1.20%。(2)中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率82.71%,较上周期减少了0.43个百分点。本周期装 | | | | 置情况来看,内中天合创、中英石化、万华化学、吉林石化等装置存在检修情况,存量检修装置多于周后期重启,因此产能利用率环比下跌。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | (1)中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期+0.2%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-0.1%;PE包装膜开工率较前期+0.5%。(2)中国聚乙烯下游制品 平均开工率较前期+0.2%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-0.1%; ...
玉米系数据日报-20251124
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 06:35
Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Corn Series Data Daily Report [3] - Researcher: Huang Xianglan from the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4] - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [4] Group 2: Price and Data Information Spot Prices - Corn Spot: Prices in various regions on November 21st remained mostly stable, with some exceptions like Inner Mongolia - Tongliao up 20 yuan/ton and Inner Mongolia - Chifeng up 30 yuan/ton. For example, Jinzhou Port FOB price was 2220 yuan/ton, and Heilongjiang - Harbin was 2030 yuan/ton [5]. - Corn Starch Spot: The price in Jilin Province was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - Wheat Spot: Prices in Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu were 2534 yuan/ton, 2518 yuan/ton, and 2525 yuan/ton respectively, with Jiangsu up 2 yuan/ton [5]. Futures Prices - Corn Main Contract Closing Price: 2241 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, with a C01 - 05 spread of -57 [5]. - Corn Starch Main Contract Closing Price: 2590 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan, with a CS01 - 05 spread of -66 [5]. International Data - US Corn Closing Price: 437.75 cents per bushel, with an imported US corn duty - paid price of 2149.25 yuan/ton and an estimated profit of 220.75 yuan/ton. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.11 [5]. Spread Data - Starch - Corn (Main Continuous): 349; Starch - Corn (Jilin Spot Average): 440 [5]. Inventory Data - North Port Corn Inventory: 117.0 million tons; Guangdong Port Corn Inventory - Domestic: 27.3 million tons; Deep - processing Corn Inventory - Northeast: 177.5 million tons; Guangdong Port Corn Inventory - Foreign: 35.5 million tons; Deep - processing Corn Inventory - North China: 75.4 million tons [5] Group 3: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis Supply - Northeast production areas face concentrated supply pressure later, with attention on the selling pressure from December to January. The 25/26 planting cost continues to decline, the sown area is slightly reduced, the yield per unit is good, and a bumper harvest is expected. Imported grain policy restrictions continue, and the supply of imported grains is shrinking [5]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies aim to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. Enterprises with low inventory have a rigid demand for replenishing corn, and deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs. Channel traders have a strong purchasing willingness [5]. Inventory - Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at North Ports is slow, while the corn inventory at South Ports is rising. With the supplement of imported grains, the overall grain inventory is increasing. With the addition of new - season corn, ports are expected to be in the inventory - accumulation stage. Feed enterprise inventory is low, and deep - processing corn is seasonally accumulating inventory [5]. Group 4: Core View - In the short term, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tension in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory lead to a temporary supply shortage, postponing the selling pressure. Before the supply pressure is fully released, the market's ability to accept high - priced corn is limited. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and will face pressure tests later. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress, logistics, and weather [13]
瓶片短纤数据日报-20251124
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 06:34
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Recently, the PX market has shown a rebound due to multiple factors. Despite the end of some planned maintenance and the gradual recovery of production capacity, PX output is still limited. This is mainly driven by two key factors: the soaring gasoline profit margin, which prompts refineries to reduce raw material input in aromatic units and increase gasoline production; and the drop of benzene prices to a near - three - year low, leading refineries to lower the load of reforming and STDP units to suppress benzene output, thus restricting PX supply. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester operation remains stable with a load above 90%, and domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" period has ended, downstream weaving has performed well, and export demand may improve. The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow these trends [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Data Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price dropped from 4630 to 4615, a decrease of 15; MEG inner - market price fell from 3885 to 3852, a decrease of 33; PTA closing price declined from 4696 to 4666, a decrease of 30; MEG closing price decreased from 3822 to 3808, a decrease of 14; 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price dropped from 6370 to 6340, a decrease of 30; short - fiber basis increased from 110 to 126, an increase of 16; 12 - 1 spread remained unchanged at 50; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5400; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 970 to 940, a decrease of 30; East China water bottle chip price dropped from 5716 to 5682, a decrease of 34; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price dropped from 5716 to 5682, a decrease of 34; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price dropped from 5816 to 5782, a decrease of 34; outer - market water bottle chip price dropped from 760 to 755, a decrease of 5; bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 456 to 446, a decrease of 10; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3930 to 3960, an increase of 30; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300; cotton 328 price dropped from 14340 to 14335, a decrease of 5; polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1656 to 1678, an increase of 22; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price increased from 7035 to 7080, an increase of 45; hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 575 to 644, an increase of 69; primary low - melting - point short - fiber price increased from 7480 to 7580, an increase of 100 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber dropped 68 to 6162. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production factories were stable, while those of traders declined. Customers replenished goods at low prices, and the trading volume in the intermediate links increased, but the production and sales of factories were average. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6080 - 6460 in cash, tax - included and self - picked; in the North China market, it was 6200 - 6580 in cash, tax - included and delivered; in the Fujian market, it was 6150 - 6350 in cash, tax - included and delivered [2] - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5660 - 5780 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures were weakly operating. Most offers on the supply side were lowered, the market trading atmosphere was rather dull, downstream terminal purchases were mainly for rigid demand, and the market sentiment was cautious [2] Operational Indicators - Direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, an increase of 0.95%; polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 35.00% to 33.00%, a decrease of 2.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3]