Group 1: Market Data Summary - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a -15.67bp change, DR007 at 1.53 with a -7.04bp change, GC001 at 1.36 with a -13.50bp change, and GC007 at 0.00 with a -187.00bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 0.40bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [4] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.39 (-1.00bp), 1.63 (-0.73bp), and 1.88 (-0.78bp) respectively, while 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.20 with a 2.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 2467.4 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase and 300 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 940.6 billion yuan [4] - This week, 516.6 billion yuan in reverse repurchase will mature, with 240.5 billion and 276.1 billion maturing on Monday and Tuesday respectively, and 300 billion yuan in 182 - day buy - out reverse repurchase maturing on Tuesday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indices: CSI 300 at 4550 (-0.95%), SSE 50 at 2941 (-0.40%), CSI 500 at 7241 (-1.37%), and CSI 1000 at 7398 (-1.45%) [6] - The closing prices and changes of index futures contracts: IF at 4543 (-0.9%), IH at 2945 (-0.3%), IC at 7203 (-1.2%), and IM at 7357 (-1.2%) [6] - Trading volume and open interest changes: IF volume decreased by 9.3% to 121085, IH volume decreased by 6.9% to 48226, IC volume increased by 4.9% to 136035, and IM volume increased by 14.2% to 242990; IF open interest decreased by 2.4% to 259924, IH open interest increased by 1.1% to 95988, IC open interest increased by 1.4% to 252224, and IM open interest increased by 3.3% to 364864 [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 0.44% to 4501.9, SSE 50 fell 1.98% to 2909.7, CSI 500 rose 0.32% to 7170.3, and CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 7438.2; only the power equipment (3.9%) and electronics (3.5%) sectors in the Shenwan primary industry index rose, while banking (-0.5%), non - ferrous metals (-3.5%), non - banking finance (-0.1%), steel (-1.1%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-2%) led the decline [6] - As of September 25, the margin trading balance in the A - share market was 2436.61 billion yuan, an increase of 46.18 billion yuan from the previous week [6] Group 3: Market Outlook and Analysis - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a self - centered approach while considering internal and external balance, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [5] - Recently, the macro news has been calm, and the stock index has been oscillating; due to poor domestic economic data, there is a stronger expectation for policies to promote consumption, stabilize the real estate market, and expand fiscal spending [7] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in October, focusing on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan and analyzing the current economic situation, which is worthy of attention [7] - The stock index trend remains bullish, but the policy aims to guide the A - share market to a "slow - bull" pattern, and it is recommended to adjust and go long, while controlling positions before the holiday [7] Group 4: Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount rates: 0.00% for the current - month contract, 2.62% for the next - month contract, 2.45% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.31% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH premium/discount rates: -2.73% for the current - month contract, -0.50% for the next - month contract, -0.51% for the current - quarter contract, and -0.04% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC premium/discount rates: 10.16% for the current - month contract, 9.81% for the next - month contract, 9.89% for the current - quarter contract, and 9.76% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM premium/discount rates: 10.54% for the current - month contract, 11.55% for the next - month contract, 12.54% for the current - quarter contract, and 12.13% for the next - quarter contract [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating bearish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic butadiene market has weakened slightly. Butadiene rubber is affected by macro - sentiment, and the market's attempt to support prices has been hindered. Under the pressure of high inventory and high production, the synthetic rubber market is viewed with a bearish attitude in the short - term. In terms of valuation, the correlation between the BR futures and NR has increased, showing stronger rubber - related attributes [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - During the reporting period, the prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and major sales companies of PetroChina remained stable. As of September 25, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The temporary shutdown of Shandong Yihua's butadiene rubber plant due to a malfunction did not boost the supply in the short - term as the overall supply of private spot resources was sufficient, and there was an expectation of concentrated restart of maintenance plants at the end of September. The increase in external supply of butadiene led to a decline in the transaction center, and the cost side also lacked driving force. Although the mainstream supply price of butadiene rubber was lowered at the end of the previous period, the price centers of arbitrage resources and private resources in the first and middle of the week were still significantly lower than the spot cost of the two - oil resources. Some industry players were still waiting for a further decline in the mainstream supply price. In the middle and late weeks, the supply of low - priced arbitrage resources decreased, and the price gap between high - end and low - end spot narrowed slightly. As the pre - holiday stocking was coming to an end, downstream buyers continued to purchase on dips [3] 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 103,000 tons (-1.91%), and the capacity utilization rate was 66.3%. Devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Dongming Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical Phase I, Fushun Petrochemical, and Fujian Refining & Petrochemical's No.1 unit remained shut down, and production continued to decline [2] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The butadiene rubber plants of Shandong Weite, Taiyo - Yuubu, and Haopu New Materials continued maintenance. Shandong Yihua's plant was shut down temporarily due to a malfunction. The production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased [2] 3.2.2 Demand - **Semi - steel Tires**: During the period, the market trading was dull. In some regions, the sales of all - season tires were weak, the social inventory was sufficient and the consumption was slow, so agents were not active in purchasing. For the snow - tire market, product promotion meetings of various brands were held one after another, and the channel inventory was relatively sufficient. Future attention should be paid to the terminal demand [2] - **All - steel Tires**: During the period, the market trading was average, mainly for regular sales, and the transaction price was stable. There was no obvious pre - holiday stocking, and the inventory was mainly consumed during the period. It is expected that the market stocking volume will increase significantly in the next period [2] 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 277,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.13%. Some devices continued to operate at reduced capacity, the refinery inventory decreased, and the suppliers sold more goods before the holiday, so the inventory remained at a relatively low level. The port inventory increased significantly due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels during the week, but there was no obvious short - term inventory pressure [2] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 32,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.21%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] 3.4 Price and Spread Analysis - **Price**: The prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of major enterprises remained stable during the period, but most prices showed a week - on - week downward trend. For example, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's North China Qilu, North China Yanshan, East China Yangzi, and South China Maoming decreased by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week [7][8] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread was 4,040 yuan/ton (-1.22%); the NR - BR spread was 1,005 yuan/ton (+17.54%); the BR - SC price ratio was - 0.12% [2] 3.5 Profit Analysis - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation of butene was 186 yuan/ton, and the production profit through C4 extraction was 1,861.1 yuan/ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber was - 225 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate was - 1.89% [2] 3.6 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - On September 25 local time, US President Trump announced on his social media platform that a 25% tariff would be imposed on all imported heavy - duty trucks starting from October 1. The crude oil market is in a range - bound game due to geopolitical factors, sanctions, and the expected oversupply in the fundamentals caused by OPEC+ production increases. The US non - farm payroll data for August was lower than market expectations, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, with two more interest rate cuts expected within the year, with a total cut of 50bp or more. Geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East are frequently disturbed in the short - term and show a tense trend [2] 3.7 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Oscillating upward - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical factors [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 Ø 近两年，债券收益率流畅的下行一方面支撑来自于基本面，另一 方面资产荒的大环境必不可少。资金是逐利的，当国内主要资产 收益率面临下滑，缺乏赚钱效应时，低息的债券以稳胜出，被投 资者所选择。叠加资本利得的加持以及国内货币政策宽松的背 景，综合才造就了这两年较为极致的债牛行情。 Ø 今年以来，若按传统的债券分析框架，基本面并未出现明显的边 际变化去支撑债券收益率走高，尤其是下半年年以来，出口压力 加大，制造业动能转弱，国补逐步退出，经济出现断档式回落的 压力。三季度债券市场意外转向，我们认为最核心的变化在于股 市的牛市行情。权益市场牛市预期逐步形成，商品也在反内卷政 策下有看不见的手托底，两个大类资产的赚钱效应显现导致投资 者不再满足于债券微薄的收益，资金出现分流，情绪转弱易跌难 涨。 Ø 三季度末债券市场仍未出现明确的企稳迹象，收益率上行难言结 束。对债券市场而言，主要的利空仍是风险资产收益回升对资金 的分流，股市强势表现的持续性较强，尚未看到明显回落盘整的 迹象。从政策的导向来看，股市引导中长期资金入市，中国资产 价格重估是中长期趋势。因此，无论是外资还是境内机构 ...

白糖数据日报 | 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | 团白 | | 地区 | 2025/9/26 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2601基差 | 涨跌值 | | / 报 糖 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 5890 | 0 | 0 | 438 | 18 | | 吨价现 | | 昆明 | 5810 | 0 | -100 | 458 | 18 | | いで貨 | 云南 | 大理 | 5675 | 0 | -140 | 363 | 18 | | 元集 | 山东 | 日照 | 5900 | 0 | 100 | 348 | 18 | | 数盘 | | SR09 | 5452 | -18 | SR09-01 | | | | 据 面 | | SR01 | 5478 | -7 | | -26 | -11 | | 国 | 人民币兑美元 | 7. 1529 | 0. 0052 | ice原 ...

| | 锂云母 | 1140 | | ■ 电碳-工碳价差 元/吨 | 一工业级碳酸锂-平均价 一 电池级碳酸锂-平均价 T. / H4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) ( | | | | | | | 锂云母 (Li20:2.0%-2.5%) | 1875 | | | 碳酸锂注册仓单(吨) | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:6%-7%) | 6150 | | | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:7%-8%) | 7285 | | | | | | 正极材料 | 平均价 | 涨跌 | | | | | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 33650 | -40 | | | | | 三元材料811(多晶/动力型) | 148800 | 750 | | | | | 三元材料523(单晶/动力型) | 121350 | 600 | | | | | 三元材料613(单晶/动力型) | 126200 | 600 | | | | | 名称 | 现值 | 变化值 | | | | | 电碳-工碳 | 2250 | F | | | | 价 差 | 电碳-主 ...

| | | 2025年9月26日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年9月26日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SP2601 | 5272 | -0. 79% | -0. 83% | | 针叶浆银星 | 5650 | 0. 00% | 0.00% | | 期货价格 | SP2511 | 5016 | -0. 87% | -0. 04% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5200 | 0. 00% | 0.00% | | | SP2505 | 5296 | -0. 60% | -0. 71% | | 阔叶浆金鱼 | 4220 | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | | 本期价格 | 上期价格 | 月环比 | | 外盘报价 | 智利银星 | 700 | 720 | -2. 78% | | 智利银星 | 5721 | 5884 | -2.75% | | (美元) | 日起等更 | 530 | 510 | 3.92% | 进口成本 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.01% to 3853.3 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.58%, the North Securities 50 Index fell 1.37%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.24%, and the Wind All - A Index rose 0.17% [5] - The Wind A500 rose 0.54% and the CSI A500 rose 0.71%. A - shares had a full - day trading volume of 2.39 trillion yuan, compared with 2.35 trillion yuan the previous day [7] Index Data Index Quotes | Index | Closing Price | Trading Volume (Billion) | Turnover (Billion Yuan) | Increase/Decrease (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2952.7352 | 1586.67 | 54.32 | 0.45 | | CSI 300 | 4593.4875 | 0.60 | 6698.67 | - 0.37 | | CSI 1000 | 4647.45 | - | - | - | [3] CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading | Index | Call Option Volume (Million Contracts) | Put Option Volume (Million Contracts) | Option Volume (Million Contracts) | Call Option Open Interest (Million Contracts) | Put Option Open Interest (Million Contracts) | Open Interest (Million Contracts) | Volume PCR | Open Interest PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3.57 | 2.45 | 6.66 | 4.06 | 2.59 | 6.65 | 0.64 | 0.64 | | CSI 300 | 13.42 | 8.03 | 21.45 | 17.04 | 8.03 | 25.07 | 0.89 | 0.47 | | CSI 1000 | 22.91 | 12.69 | 35.6 | 13.28 | 10.22 | 23.5 | 0.81 | 0.77 | [3] Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility and historical volatility cones, as well as volatility smile curves for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, including data such as minimum, maximum, 10% quantile, 30% quantile, 60% quantile, 90% quantile, and current values for different time - periods (5 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, 120 - day) [3][4]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 |数据日报 供给方面,美豆优良率降至61%。近期产区降雨偏少,优良率或继续下调，美豆单产后续或存在下调空间:10月国内大豆预期开始去 | 库但四季度国内豆粕供应预期仍宽松，目前11-1买船进度偏慢。明年一季度的豆粕供应仍需补充。补充来源暂不确定。需求方面，生猪 | | | --- | --- | | 和禽类养殖短期预期维持高存栏。支撑同用需求，但政策导向控生猪存栏和体重，预期影响远月生猪铁应:豆粉性价比较高，提货后于 | | | 11 高位:本周豆箱下游现货成交有所放量。库存方面，国内大豆库存增至高位,油厂豆粕库存上升,但低于去年同期，预期短期的处于累 | | | 结 库周期:饲料企业豆粕库存天数上升。 | | | 整体来说，阿根廷出口完成任务恢复关税。内盎反弹，但相比于降税利空影响前，国内大豆进口量增加，因此今日未收复周二用线 | | | 。商务部表明，关于太豆贸易，美方应采取积极行动，取消相关不合理关税。因目前内驻价格已云贸易战升水，美盘对美豆卖压的反映 | | | 相对充分,若中美关系缓和预期利多CBOT盘面,从成本端利多内盘,M01以逢低做 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GERIK 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | | 投资咨询号： Z0021177 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 卢钊毅 | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/9/26 | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | E | 现值 | 1198 | 1120 | 1636 | 1193 | 2557 | 1052 | | Alla | 前值 | 1398 | 1125 | 2370 | 1349 | 3307 | 1154 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -14.31% | -0.45% | -30.97% | -11.56% | -22.68% | -8 ...

| | | | | 投资咨询号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | Z0017251 2025/9/26 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/9/24 | 2025/9/25 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4525 | 4585 | 60.00 | | | MEG内盘价格 | 4301 | 4315 | 14. 00 | 现货资讯: | | | | | | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨100至6372。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4626 | 4678 | 52. 00 | 短纤生产工厂价格僵持,贸易商价格偏暖,下游 | | MEG收盘价 | 4234 | 4246 | 12. 00 | 按需补货,华南成交放量,其他成交一般。 | | | | | | 1.56dtex*38mm半光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6460 | 6500 | 40. 00 | 场价格在6300-6550现款现汇含税自提,华 ...