Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PX market remains strong, driven by speculative funds pre - arranging long positions for 2026. Current support factors go beyond pure financial drivers, with gasoline blending profit decline making reformer units close to break - even between aromatic extraction and gasoline production. PX - MX and PX - naphtha spreads have improved PX production economics. Korean factories plan to increase production in January but are limited by some reformer unit overhauls. [2] - Domestic PTA maintains high operation, but domestic demand has declined. Polyester factory production cuts have a negative feedback on PTA. PTA consumption remains high, but mainstream polyester factories are advancing maintenance and selling PTA raw materials, causing the basis to weaken rapidly. [2] - For ethylene glycol (MEG), overseas MEG unit overhaul plans are increasing. The inventory at East China ports remains at 730,000 tons. With the continuous decline of coal prices, MEG prices are difficult to get effective support. The commissioning of new units increases market supply pressure, and the return of coal - based MEG units exerts great pressure on the market. However, MEG prices may be supported by domestic policies under the carbon neutral background. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 444.9 yuan/barrel on January 15, 2026, to 438.8 yuan/barrel on January 16, 2026, a decrease of 6.10 yuan/barrel. [2] - **PTA**: PTA - SC spread increased from 1814.9 yuan/ton to 1829.2 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.5613 to 1.5736; PTA主力期价 decreased from 5048 yuan/ton to 5018 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 dropped from 5050 yuan/ton to 4960 yuan/ton; spot processing fee decreased from 389.9 yuan/ton to 309.6 yuan/ton;盘面加工费 decreased from 387.9 yuan/ton to 367.6 yuan/ton;主力基差 increased from (70) to (67); PTA仓单数量 increased from 104,108 to 104,318. [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX price decreased from 881 to 879; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 331 to 321; PX开工率 remained at 85.82%. [2] - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 3817 yuan/ton to 3796 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (156.56) to (158.75); MEG内盘 decreased from 3696 yuan/ton to 3665 yuan/ton;主力基差 increased from - 140 to - 128. [2] - **Industrial Chain开工情况**: PTA开工率 decreased from 77.74% to 75.63%; MEG开工率 decreased from 61.15% to 60.82%;聚酯负荷 decreased from 87.60% to 86.61%. [2] - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price decreased from 6715 yuan/ton to 6690 yuan/ton; POY现金流 increased from (91) to (29); FDY150D/96F price remained at 6920 yuan/ton; FDY现金流 increased from (386) to (299); DTY150D/48F price remained at 7830 yuan/ton; DTY现金流 increased from (176) to (89);长丝产销 decreased from 44% to 40%. [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D直纺涤短 price decreased from 6440 yuan/ton to 6405 yuan/ton;涤短现金流 increased from (16) to 36;短纤产销 decreased from 76% to 73%. [2] - **Polyester Chip**: 半光切片 price remained at 5735 yuan/ton;切片现金流 increased from (171) to (84);切片产销 decreased from 83% to 36%. [2] Device Overhaul - This week, Sanfangxiang's 500,000 - ton device is restarting, and another 750,000 - ton device is under maintenance, with the load gradually decreasing. In addition, the overhauls of Xinjiang Yipu and Jinyu devices in late December are supplemented, and some factories such as Tiansheng and Guxiandao have reduced their device loads. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The PX market continues to be strong, mainly driven by speculative funds pre - arranging long positions for 2026. The current supporting factors have exceeded pure financial drivers. The gasoline blending profit decline makes the reforming unit close to the break - even point between aromatics extraction and gasoline production. The PX - MX spread has expanded to over $150, and the PX - naphtha spread reached $370 at one point, significantly improving PX production economics. South Korean factories are expected to increase production in January, but are restricted by some reforming unit overhauls. Domestic PTA maintains high operation, domestic demand has declined, and the production cuts of polyester factories have had a negative feedback on PTA. PTA consumption remains high, but mainstream polyester factories are overhauling in advance and selling PTA raw materials, and the basis has weakened rapidly [2] Summary by Related Data Price Changes - PTA spot price dropped from 5050 to 4960, a decrease of 90 [2] - MEG domestic market price decreased from 3696 to 3665, a decrease of 31 [2] - 1.4D straight - spun polyester staple fiber price fell from 6440 to 6405, a decrease of 35 [2] - Polyester bottle - chip prices (including华东水瓶片, 热灌装聚酯瓶片, 碳酸级聚酯瓶片) all dropped by 40 [2] - Outer - market water bottle - chip price decreased from 815 to 805, a decrease of 10 [2] Basis and Spread Changes - Short - fiber basis increased from 44 to 57, an increase of 13 [2] - 3 - 4 spread decreased from 62 to 44, a change of 18 [2] - The price difference between 1.4D straight - spun and 1.4D imitation large - chemical decreased from 1190 to 1155, a decrease of 35 [2] Processing Fee and Cash - Flow Changes - Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 491 to 538, an increase of 47 [2] - T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee increased from 4160 to 4195, an increase of 35 [2] - Hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash - flow increased from 454 to 541, an increase of 87 [2] Operating Rate and Production - Sales Rate Changes - Straight - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, an increase of 2.07% [3] - Polyester short - fiber production - sales rate decreased from 76.00% to 74.00%, a decrease of 2.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp demand has been stable recently, with a slight increase in the price of household paper and stable prices of other paper products. The production of major wood-pulp paper is stable. As of January 15, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China continued to accumulate. Recently, pulp futures warrants have been centrally registered, with limited room for further increase, and the price of hardwood pulp has slightly weakened. Consider shorting after a rebound [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 18, 2026, SP2601 was 5,542 yuan/ton, up 2.44% day-on-day and 1.13% week-on-week; SP2609 was 5,400 yuan/ton, down 1.57% day-on-day and 3.61% week-on-week; SP2605 was 5,362 yuan/ton, down 1.36% day-on-day and 3.39% week-on-week [6] - **Spot Prices**: On January 18, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,600 yuan/ton, up 2.75% day-on-day and 0.90% week-on-week; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5,250 yuan/ton, down 0.94% day-on-day and 2.78% week-on-week; the price of hardwood pulp was 4,700 yuan/ton, down 1.05% day-on-day and week-on-week [6] - **Foreign Offers**: In January 2026, the offer of Chilean Silver Star was 700 US dollars/ton, up 2.94% month-on-month; the offer of Brazilian Goldfish was 540 US dollars/ton, up 1.89% month-on-month; the offer of Chilean Venus was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged month-on-month [6] - **Import Costs**: In January 2026, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5,721 yuan/ton, up 2.91% month-on-month; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4,425 yuan/ton, up 1.87% month-on-month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5,073 yuan/ton, unchanged month-on-month [6] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons, up 4.92% month-on-month; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 176.5 tons, up 33.92% month-on-month. The pulp shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, up 3.00% month-on-month. From January 8 to January 15, 2026, the domestic production of hardwood pulp was 25.2 tons, and the domestic production of chemimechanical pulp was 23.7 tons [6] - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the pulp port inventory was 201.4 tons, up 0.3% month-on-month; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 14.9 tons [6] - **Demand**: From December 4, 2025, to January 15, 2026, the production of offset paper was 20.3 tons, the production of coated paper was 8.3 tons, the production of household paper was 29.3 tons, and the production of white cardboard was 38.4 tons [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On January 16, the price trends of platinum and palladium first rose and then fell, with the final trends diverging. The PT2606 contract closed up 0.6% at 610.05 yuan/gram, while the PD2606 contract closed down 1.72% at 469.35 yuan/gram. Macro - level factors such as the cooling of the Iranian geopolitical situation and changes in the front - runner for the Fed Chair dampened market expectations of interest rate cuts, weakening the macro - driving factors and putting pressure on the precious metals market, including platinum and palladium. Fundamentally, Trump's decision to temporarily suspend import tariffs on key minerals and seek agreement negotiations alleviated the tariff risks for platinum and palladium. In the future, if the tariff risk decreases, platinum and palladium inventories may flow from the US to non - US regions, easing the tight spot situation and suppressing platinum and palladium prices in the short term. In the short term, it is advisable to allocate platinum on dips or adopt a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Prices - Platinum futures main contract closing price was 610.05 yuan/gram, up 0.16% from the previous value; spot platinum (99.95%) was 603 yuan/gram, up 1.86%; the basis (spot - futures) was - 7.05 yuan/gram, down 58.65%. Palladium futures main contract closing price was 469.35 yuan/gram, down 1.93%; spot palladium (99.95%) was 448.5 yuan/gram, down 1.75%; the basis (spot - futures) was - 20.85 yuan/gram, down 5.66% [4]. International Prices - London spot platinum was 2338.8 dollars/ounce, up 0.07%; London spot palladium was 1747.624 dollars/ounce, down 3.20%. NYMEX platinum was 2336 dollars/ounce, up 0.24%; NYMEX palladium was 1795 dollars/ounce, down 1.72% [4]. Internal - External 15 - point Spreads - The dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.0078, up 0.02%. The spread of domestic platinum - London platinum was 14.60 yuan/gram, up 3.17%; the spread of domestic platinum - NYMEX platinum was 15.31 yuan/gram, down 3.28%. The spread of domestic palladium - London palladium was 19.05 yuan/gram, up 28.17%; the spread of domestic palladium - NYMEX palladium was 12.35 yuan/gram, down 9.68% [4][5]. Ratios - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum to palladium was 1.2726, with a change of 0.0272. The ratio of London spot platinum to palladium was 1.3383, with a change of 0.0438 [5]. Inventories - NYMEX platinum inventory was 634,522 troy ounces, up 1.63%; NYMEX palladium inventory was 210,908 troy ounces, unchanged [5]. Positions - NYMEX total platinum position was 78,337, down 0.90%; non - commercial net long position of platinum was 17,594, down 2.85%. NYMEX total palladium position was 19,483, up 0.69%; non - commercial net long position of palladium was 579, up 111.57% [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, with weakened macro - level driving factors, precious metal prices are expected to fluctuate weakly at high levels and price volatility may remain high. However, due to uncertainties such as the Iran geopolitical situation and tight silver spot, prices are difficult to decline continuously. Long - term, the upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and the strategy is to buy on dips or sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [3]. - Medium - to - long - term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties will continue, and the credit risk of the US dollar will increase. The allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, so the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices will likely move up. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - On January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, 2026, London gold spot decreased by 0.2% to $4597.99 per ounce, London silver spot increased by 0.9% to $90.51 per ounce, COMEX gold decreased by 0.2% to $4601.50 per ounce, COMEX silver increased by 1.1% to $90.32 per ounce, AU2602 decreased by 0.3% to 1032.32 yuan per gram, AG2602 decreased by 0.7% to 22555 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.2% to 1030.20 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) decreased by 0.5% to 22541 yuan per kilogram [3]. - Regarding price spreads, on January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread increased by - 28.9% to - 2.12 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread increased by - 77.8% to - 14 yuan per kilogram, etc. [3]. 2. Position Data - On January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR increased by 1.01% to 1085.67 tons, the silver ETF - SLV increased by 0.07% to 16073.05851 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 7.92% to 296183 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 3.97% to 44945 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 10.37% to 251238 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions decreased by 0.10% to 47337 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 15.66% to 15277 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 9.53% to 32060 contracts [3]. 3. Inventory Data - On January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, 2026, SHFE gold inventory decreased by 0.10% to 100053 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.81% to 626843 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.01% to 36135901 troy ounces, COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.98% to 429156441 troy ounces [3]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - On January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.02% to 7.01, the US dollar index increased by 0.03% to 99.37, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.84% to 3.59%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.68% to 4.24%, the VIX increased by 0.13% to 15.86, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.06% to 6940.01, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.08% to 59.22 [3]. 5. Market Review and Influencing Factors - On January 16, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.31% to 1032.32 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.26% to 22483 yuan per kilogram [3]. - The sharp adjustment of precious metal prices in the night session last Friday was due to: the cooling of the Iran situation reducing safe - haven demand; the change of the most likely Fed chair candidate hitting market rate - cut expectations; the suspension of new tariffs on critical minerals imports easing silver's tariff risk; and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's risk - control measures on silver [3].

| | | | | | | | HE STATE W | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/19 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) 元 | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2609 | JM2609 | 6000 | | | 400 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No clear overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific ratings for some individual industries are as follows: - Industrial silicon is rated "bearish" [1] -沪胶 is rated "bullish" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to continue rising after a period of shock adjustment. The bond market is favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted by the central bank. The prices of various commodities show different trends due to factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - **Stock index**: After the policy of lowering the margin trading leverage, the market speculative sentiment declined. The central bank's measures of lowering interest rates and increasing loan quotas are expected to further loosen the capital side. The stock index is expected to continue rising after shock adjustment [1] - **Treasury bonds**: The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk prompt and the Japanese central bank's interest rate decision need attention [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The downstream demand is relatively pressured. With the cooling of market sentiment, copper prices have fallen from high levels and are currently in a volatile trend [1] - **Aluminum**: Due to limited industrial drivers and weakening macro - sentiment, aluminum prices have fallen from high levels and are expected to fluctuate [1] - **Alumina**: The alumina production capacity has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, so it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Zinc**: The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing, but there is inventory pressure. Although zinc prices have made up for losses due to good macro - sentiment recently, the upside space is cautiously viewed [1] - **Nickel**: The 2026 RKAB target of Indonesian nickel mines is about 260 million wet tons, but the supply shortage pattern is difficult to change. Nickel prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies, macro - sentiment, and futures positions [1] - **Stainless steel**: The price has risen sharply due to the supply shortage of nickel ore. The price of raw material nickel - iron has been rising, the social inventory of stainless steel has slightly decreased, and steel mills' production in January has increased. The stainless steel futures are expected to be strongly volatile [1] - **Tin**: Due to good macro - sentiment and continuous supply disturbances, tin prices have continued to rise. The exchange's margin - increasing action on the 15th has had a short - term impact on tin prices [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: With the easing of geopolitical tensions and Trump's decision to postpone the tariff on key minerals, the upward momentum of precious metal prices has slowed down. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels in the short term. Platinum and palladium prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. In the long term, due to the supply - demand gap of platinum and the relatively loose supply of palladium, platinum can be allocated at a low price or a [long - platinum, short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: It is in the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong demand for energy storage and increased supply from restarts. It is expected to be strongly volatile, but the spot market is weak, and the upward momentum is insufficient [1] Black metals - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: High output and high inventory suppress the price increase space. The transmission from futures price increases to the spot market is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed and observed, and cash - and - carry arbitrage positions can be participated in [1] - **Iron ore**: There is obvious upward pressure, and it is not recommended to chase long positions at the current position [1] - **Coking coal and coke**: If the "capacity - reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre - holiday stockpiling in the spot market, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the "capacity - reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, the actual upward space is difficult to judge, and the volatility increases after a sharp rise [1] - **Glass and soda ash**: The short - term market sentiment has warmed up, and supply and demand are supportive. However, in the medium term, supply and demand will continue to be in surplus, and prices will be under pressure. Soda ash mainly follows the trend of glass, and its supply - demand situation is more relaxed in the medium term, so the price is under pressure [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: The rumor that Indonesia will not implement B50 has put pressure on the market. It is expected to enter a shock - consolidation phase in the short term, waiting for positive driving factors such as Indian stockpiling and inventory reduction in the producing areas [1] - **Soybean oil**: It has a strong fundamental situation, and it is recommended to allocate more in the oil market. Consider a long - soybean - oil, short - palm - oil spread strategy [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: The expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade and the Australian commercial crushing are expected to improve the tight domestic supply situation. Coupled with the global rapeseed harvest in the new season, the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are relatively weak in the oil market [1] - **Cotton**: There is support from the new - crop purchase price, and the downstream has rigid replenishment demand. However, there is currently no clear driving factor. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No.1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting intentions, weather during the planting period, and the peak - season demand in March and April [1] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market has a surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus on short positions. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous fundamental drivers in the short term [1] - **Corn**: The grain - selling progress has slowed down but is still faster than the same period last year. The port inventory is low, and there is a certain pre - holiday replenishment demand from the middle and lower reaches. The spot price is still firm in the short term, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1] - **Soybeans**: The USDA report is bearish. The expected harvest pressure in South America is gradually reflected in the Brazilian CNF premium. The domestic futures market is expected to be weakly volatile. In the first quarter, the concentrated ownership of imported soybeans may lead to structural problems, which may support the pre - holiday spot price, but the domestic auction policy is uncertain [1] Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the market [1] - **Fuel oil**: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term. The probability of the "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is not short [1] - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the mid - stream inventory has increased significantly [1] - **BR rubber**: The futures position has declined, the new warehouse receipts have increased, and the short - term upward momentum has slowed down. The spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and attention should be paid to the upward momentum above 12,000. The processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed, and the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial for the long - term domestic butadiene export [1] - **PTA**: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, which is not due to fundamental changes. The PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to be tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the high gasoline spread supports aromatics [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total capacity of 720,000 tons/year, plan to shut down next month. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news. The current polyester downstream operating rate is maintained above 90%, and the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations [1] - **Styrene**: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and profit compression. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak - equilibrium state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on the overseas market [1] - **Hydrogen**: The upward space is limited due to weak domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1] - **PE**: The supply pressure is relatively large due to high operating load and less maintenance. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price has returned to a reasonable range. Geopolitical conflicts may lead to a rise in crude oil prices [1] - **PVC**: There is less global production in 2026, and the future expectation is optimistic. The cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to a rush - export phenomenon. The implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest region may force the elimination of PVC production capacity [1] - **LPG**: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong support for the import cost. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory accumulation trend has slowed down and is expected to turn into inventory reduction, and the domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit [1] Others - **Container shipping**: It is expected to reach the peak in mid - January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights. The pre - holiday replenishment demand still exists [1] - **Paper pulp**: Affected by the decline of the commodity macro - market, paper pulp has fallen but has not broken through the shock range. The short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [1] - **Log**: The spot price of logs has shown signs of bottom - rebounding recently, and the further decline space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas offer has still declined slightly, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently. Supported by demand and with the unsold slaughter weight, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - BR is expected to fluctuate upwards, and the bullish logic remains unchanged; investors should focus on the strategy of going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Market Overview - The closing price of BR2603.SHF was 12,190 yuan/ton, down 0.49% or 60 yuan/ton from the previous value; the settlement price was 12,250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% or 5 yuan/ton [3] - The domestic position volume was 99,183 lots, down 1.39% or 1,393 lots; the trading volume was 150,035 lots, down from 177,031 lots [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 26,330 lots [3] - The month - to - month spreads and cross - month spreads showed various changes, such as the "continuous one - continuous two" spread was - 10 yuan/ton, down 40% [3] - The cross - variety spreads also had different changes, for example, the BR - RU spread was 105 yuan/ton, up 13.73% [3] Raw Material Prices - WTI crude oil price was 58.25 US dollars/barrel, up 1.95 US dollars or 3.46%; Brent crude oil price was 62.70 US dollars/barrel, up 2.31 US dollars or 3.83%; SC crude oil price was 433 yuan/barrel, up 16.50 yuan or 3.96% [3] Factory Prices - As of January 15, 2026, the ex - factory price of Sinopec Chemical Sales BR9000 was 12,100 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of PetroChina's sales companies' BR9000 was in the range of 12,100 - 12,300 yuan/ton [3] Market Prices - The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated strongly, and the spot price range moved up to 11,500 - 12,200 yuan/ton [3] - The market prices in different regions such as Hangzhou, Jiangsu, and Shandong showed different degrees of change [3] Industry Chain - The ex - factory prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales and PetroChina's main sales companies increased by 200 yuan/ton in this cycle [3] - The cost of cis - butadiene rubber production increased significantly due to good domestic demand and rumors of butadiene export transactions at the butadiene end [3] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber remained high, and the spot resources of most brands were sufficient, with little pressure on the supply side [3] - The mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber increased slightly, and the theoretical production profit turned into a loss [3] - Traders actively tried to raise prices, but downstream terminal procurement was negative, and the price - pressing was firm. Although the price center of the spot side gradually moved up, the trading volume was poor [3] Strategy Operation - Unilateral: BR is expected to fluctuate upwards, and the bullish logic remains unchanged [3] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - International oil prices have dropped significantly. Geopolitical situation is the main short - term driver of oil prices, and the Iran situation has cooled rapidly. The US cancelled its planned military strike on Iran at the last minute. The market generally expects an oversupply of international crude oil. The IEA predicts a record - high increase in global crude oil inventories in Q1 2026, with a possible increase of 5 million barrels. Short - term oil prices will mainly fluctuate widely, and the current operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. - As of the week ending January 14, Singapore's residue fuel oil inventories increased by 65,000 barrels to a two - week high of 25,473,000 barrels. The supply of fuel oil in Asia in January is still sufficient, exceeding 5 million tons. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil spot differential has turned into a premium, showing a certain degree of recovery. The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a pattern of "loose supply and weak demand", and the operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical situation affects short - term oil prices. The Iran situation has cooled, but the Middle East situation may become more tense. The market expects an oversupply of crude oil, and the IEA predicts a record - high increase in global crude oil inventories in Q1 2026 [3]. - **Operation Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see [3]. - **Futures Prices**: SC crude oil closed at 445.5 yuan/barrel, down 0.6 yuan or 0.13% from the previous value; WTI crude oil was at 61.02 dollars/barrel, unchanged; Brent crude oil was at 65.39 dollars/barrel, unchanged [3]. - **Spread Data**: SC - WTI spread was 2.51 yuan/barrel, down 0.03 yuan or 1.39%; SC - Brent spread was - 1.86 yuan/barrel, up 0.03 yuan or 1.88%; Brent - WTI spread was 4.37 dollars/barrel, unchanged [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Oman crude oil was at 62.49 dollars/barrel, up 0.61 dollars or 0.99%; Russian ESPO was at 50.58 dollars/barrel, up 0.05 dollars or 0.10%; Brent Dtd was at 68.76 dollars/barrel, up 2.97 dollars or 4.51% [4]. - **US EIA Data**: Crude oil commercial inventories increased by 3,391 thousand barrels to 422,447 thousand barrels, up 0.81%; gasoline inventories increased by 8,977 thousand barrels to 251,013 thousand barrels, up 3.71%; distillate inventories decreased by 29 thousand barrels to 129,244 thousand barrels, down 0.02%; US production decreased by 58 thousand barrels/day to 13,753 thousand barrels/day, down 0.42%; refined oil inventories increased by 1,482 thousand barrels to 47,722 thousand barrels, up 3.21% [4]. - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: SC crude oil warehouse receipts were 3,464,000, unchanged; FU fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 4,900 to 74,550, down 6.17%; LU fuel oil warehouse receipts were 18,280, unchanged [4]. Fuel Oil - **Fundamentals**: Singapore's fuel oil inventories increased. The supply of fuel oil in Asia in January is sufficient. The low - sulfur fuel oil market shows a recovery, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has a pattern of "loose supply and weak demand" [3]. - **Operation Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see [3]. - **Futures Prices**: FU high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,586 yuan/ton, unchanged; LU low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,098 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.36% [3]. - **Spread Data**: FU - SC spread was - 47 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or - 1.26%; LU - SC spread was 31 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or - 3.51%; LU - FU spread was 512 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or - 2.15% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was at 359 dollars/ton, up 13 dollars or 3.76%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was at 435.5 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars or 1.63% [4]. - **Singapore ESG Data**: Fuel oil inventories increased by 850 thousand barrels to 25,559 thousand barrels, up 3.44% [4]. Macro and Other Data - **Exchange Rates and Interest Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.1842, down 0.1089 or 0.11%; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.18%, down 0.03 percentage points or 0.72%; the RMB/US dollar exchange rate was 7.2545, unchanged [4]. - **Macro Indexes**: The Baltic BDI index was 1,566, down 42 or 2.61%; the crude oil freight rate BDTI index was 1,410, up 63 or 4.68%; the refined oil freight rate BCTI index was 777, up 68 or 8.75% [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Recently, there has been a concentrated registration of warehouse receipts for double-offset paper in factory warehouses, relieving the delivery pressure on the 01 contract. Meanwhile, it is difficult for the double-offset paper futures to break through the previous high. At the current price, the long positions taking delivery on the 01 contract may have certain delivery profits. Without a further decline in the spot price, there is limited room for the futures price to fall further. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1100 - 4300 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the handling costs of the long positions after the first delivery of the 01 contract [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Double-Offset Paper Futures Data - On January 15, 2026, the price of 0P2603 was 4110, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.10% compared to January 14, 2026. The trading volume of the main contract was 15,236, with a day-on-day decrease of 1.05% [3] Spot Price Data - Double-offset paper: The prices of various brands such as Shandong Gaobai Swan, Shandong Benbai Tianyang, etc., showed no day-on-day or week-on-week changes [3] - Copperplate paper: The price of Guangdong Chenming Xuetutu decreased by 1.08% week-on-week, while other brands showed no day-on-day or week-on-week changes [3] Papermaking Raw Material Data - Shandong broadleaf Jinyu: The price was 5515 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.63% and a week-on-week decrease of 0.90% - Shandong coniferous Yinxing: The price was 4730 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.21% and a week-on-week decrease of 0.21% - Shandong coniferous Ezhen: The price was 5090 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day decrease of 0.88% and a week-on-week decrease of 0.97% [4] Double-Offset Paper Supply and Demand Data - Production volume: On January 9, 2026, it was 20.3 million tons, remaining the same as on December 26, 2025 [4] - Capacity utilization rate: On January 9, 2026, it was 54.22%, showing an increase compared to previous periods [4] - Factory inventory: On January 9, 2026, it was 138.5 million tons, showing a slight decrease compared to previous periods [4] - Social inventory: On January 9, 2026, it was 53.8 million tons, showing a slight decrease compared to previous periods [4] - Production profit: The production profit of double-offset paper mainly using chemimechanical pulp was 335 yuan/ton, while that mainly using broadleaf pulp was 21 yuan/ton [4]