本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个 免责 人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定 状况, 据此投资,责任自负。本报告未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权, 司将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 電留期货有限公 流的衍生品综合服务商 00-8888-598 | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITG国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 名品年数据 贵金属与新能源研究中心 | | | | | 陈宇森 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0023460 从业资格号:F03123927 | | | 2026/01/16 | | | | | | | 数据来源:SMM,百川盈孚,Wind,广期所,公开新闻整理 | | | 合约 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 一 N型致密料 - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The current domestic supply-demand situation of urea remains loose, and the recent market still has a downward trend. Although urea exports are advancing, the weak domestic demand situation has not been reversed. The overall market is expected to fluctuate, with macro and cost factors being positive and weak domestic demand being negative [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The price of pulverized coal decreased by 10.00 to 510.00, while the price of natural gas remained unchanged at 3740.00. The cost of anthracite small pieces was 920.00, with no change [1] Price - The prices of urea in Shandong, Henan, and Anhui decreased, while the prices in Shanxi and the FOB prices in China and the Middle East remained unchanged. The CFR prices in Southeast Asia and Brazil also remained stable [1] Supply - The daily output of urea decreased by 770.00 to 199810.00, and the overall operating rate decreased by 0.33 to 84.86. The operating rates of coal and gas-based urea remained unchanged at 93.00 and 48.06 respectively [1] Demand - The operating rate of industrial compound fertilizers gradually increased this week, but agricultural demand decreased significantly. The operating rates of compound fertilizers, melamine, and formaldehyde remained unchanged at 37.17, 54.35, and 35.25 respectively [1] Inventory - Factory inventory remained unchanged at 102.22, port inventory decreased by 13.50 to 0.00, and downstream sample inventory remained unchanged at 15330.00 [1] Futures - The futures settlement price decreased by 9.00 to 1796.00, the trading volume decreased by 62191.00 to 6144515.00, and the open interest decreased by 3460.00 to 250303.00. The warehouse receipt volume remained unchanged at 13355.00 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PP powder market price continued to rise slightly today, with the price center increasing by 0 - 100 yuan/ton. The polypropylene futures market showed a strong trend, which supported the trading confidence of market participants. However, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers weakened, and the actual trading volume was limited. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to the intense long - short game [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Upstream - Brent crude oil price rose from 65.47 to 66.52, an increase of 1.05 [1] - The price of动力煤 remained unchanged at 706 [1] - The price of methanol (East China) decreased from 2257 to 2240, a decrease of 17 [1] - The price of propane (imported in South China) remained unchanged at 604 [1] - The price of imported propylene rose from 6258 to 6378, an increase of 120 [1] - The price of propylene in Shandong rose from 5995 to 6110, an increase of 115 [1] - The price of propylene in East China rose from 6250 to 6325, an increase of 75 [1] Spot - The price of PP powder in Shandong remained unchanged at 6470 [1] - The price of PP powder in East China rose from 6500 to 6550, an increase of 50 [1] - The price of PP拉丝 in North China rose from 6500 to 6600, an increase of 100 [1] - The price of PP拉丝 in East China remained unchanged at 6500 [1] - The PP主力 price rose from 6590 to 6592, an increase of 2 [1] - The PP拉丝 basis in East China decreased from - 90 to - 92 [1] - The price of PP oil - made拉丝 in East China remained unchanged at 6850 [1] - The price of low - melt copolymer in East China remained unchanged at 6750 [1] - The price of high - melt fiber in East China remained unchanged at 805 [1] - The PP Southeast Asia CIF price rose from 6874.49 to 6900.73, an increase of 26.24 [1] Others - The number of warrants remained unchanged at 17508 [2] - The proportion of拉丝 decreased from 27.56% to 27.09%, a decrease of 0.47% [2] - The proportion of homopolymer injection molding decreased from 15.02% to 18.12%, a decrease of 3.1% [2] - The proportion of copolymer injection molding increased from 1.45% to 16.36%, an increase of 14.91% [2] - The proportion of fiber production increased from 0.21% to 9.21%, an increase of 9.42% [2] - The proportion of BOPP decreased from 3.42% to 0.0%, a decrease of 3.42% [2] - The proportion of pipes increased from 1.12% to 1.53%, an increase of 0.41% [2] - The parking rate increased from 17.27% to 18.52%, an increase of 1.25% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Log spot prices have shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding recently, and the further downside space for futures prices is expected to be limited. However, the January FOB quotes still show a slight decline, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - In Shandong, for radiation pine, 3.9 - meter medium A is 740 yuan, 5.9 - meter medium A is 760 yuan, 3.9 - meter small A is 680 yuan, and 5.9 - meter small A is 710 yuan. In Jiangsu, 4 - meter medium A is 730 yuan, 6 - meter medium A is 780 yuan, 4 - meter small A is 670 yuan, and 6 - meter small A is 730 yuan [5] FOB Quote - The FOB quote for 4 - meter medium A radiation pine is in the range of 109 - 112 dollars/JAS m³ in January, compared to 109 - 113 dollars/JAS m³ in December, with a change of - J [5] Futures Price - The price of LG2605 contract is 790 yuan/m³, up from 789 yuan/m³ in the previous period. The price of LG2603 contract is 780.5 yuan/m³, up from 779.5 yuan/m³ in the previous period [5] Downstream Wood Square Price - In Shandong, the price of 4000*50*100 wood square is 1220 yuan, unchanged from the previous period. In Jiangsu, it is 1240 yuan, also unchanged [5] Supply - In December 2025, New Zealand's import volume was 178.8 (in 10,000 m³), North American timber was 9.3 (in 10,000 m³), and European timber was 15.5 (in 10,000 m³). The ship - arrival volume in the week of December 22 - 28 was 31 (in 10,000 JAS m³), down from 52 (in 10,000 JAS m³) in the week of December 15 - 21 [5] Inventory - On January 8, the total inventory was 269 (in 10,000 m³), with Shandong inventory at 229 (in 10,000 m³) and Jiangsu inventory at 48.4 (in 10,000 m³) [5] Demand - On January 8, the daily average outbound volume was 5.75 (in 10,000 m³), with Shandong's outbound volume at 2.79 (in 10,000 m³) and Jiangsu's at 2.35 (in 10,000 m³) [5]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The supply side shows a slight decline in production scheduling in January. On the demand side, the production scheduling of polysilicon and silicone in January has decreased significantly. Overall, both supply and demand of industrial silicon have decreased, and with the strengthening expectation of polysilicon production reduction, the support for price decline is weak [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - SI 2601: Closing price is 8630, with a change of -0.12% [1] - SI 2602: Closing price is 8640, with a change of 0.17% [1] - SI 2603: Closing price is 8670, with a change of 0.17% [1] - SI 2604: Closing price is 8695, with a change of 0.12% [1] - SI 2605: Closing price is 8730, with a change of 0.46% [1] Spot Market - In East China: 553 (non - oxygen - passing) price is 9200 with no change; 553 (hydrogen - passing) price is 9250 with no change; 421 price is 9650 with no change; 441 price is 9400 with no change; 3303 price is 10350 [1] - At Huangpu Port: 553 (hydrogen - passing) price is 9300 with no change; 421 price is 9900 with no change [1] - At Tianjin Port: 553 (oxygen - passing) price is 9200 with no change; 421 price is 9750 with no change [1] - In Kunming: 421 price is 10000 with no change [1] - In Sichuan: 421 price is 9800 with no change [1] - DMC price is 13850; 107 glue price is 14500; polysilicon (compact material, per kg) price is 54.25 with no change; aluminum alloy ADC12 average price is 24000, with a decrease of 200 [1] Spread Data - si2601 - si2602 spread is - 10, with a change of 15 [1] - si2602 - si2603 spread is - 30, with a change of 5 [1] - 421 spot - 553 oxygen - passing spot spread is 400 [1] - Basis (East China 553 spot - main contract) is 520, with a change of 25 [1] Warehouse Data - Total warehouse capacity is 7.95 tons. The total number of yesterday's warehouse receipts is 7192, and today's is 7191, a decrease of 1 [1] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - On November 14, the Online Approval and Supervision Platform for Investment Projects in Jiangxi Province announced the filing information of Jiangxi Xinfang High - tech Yongxiu's annual production project of 137,500 tons of organic silicon new materials [1]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Thursday (January 15th), most domestic commodity futures closed lower, with precious metals leading the decline, while basic metals had significant gains and agricultural products showed a mixed trend [1] - Industrial products mostly weakened, and agricultural products were a mix of gains and losses [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Categories Black Series - Most black series commodities declined. The steel market is in a weak supply - demand balance, with prices fluctuating according to market sentiment. Terminal demand is facing a downward trend in the off - season, market transactions are sluggish, and although there is a slight increase in production, cost support is relatively stable. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [1] Basic Metals - Basic metals showed mixed performance. For Shanghai copper, the short - term willingness of long - position holders to close positions is strong. The 01 contract expired, the near - month spread weakened, and electrolytic copper inventories increased. For industrial silicon futures, production decreased, demand was average, and the market was mainly circulated among futures - spot traders. It is expected that prices will fluctuate and wait for industry follow - up [1] Energy Products - Most energy products declined. Negative sentiment from the external market affected the domestic market. The fundamentals of crude oil are weak, with sufficient supply and weak demand. If the geopolitical situation does not worsen, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended, but a sharp escalation of geopolitical risks could lead to a short - term surge in oil prices [1] Oilseeds and Oils - Most oilseeds and oils declined. Weak US soybeans and lower import costs pressured domestic soybean meal prices. The expected improvement in China - Canada relations affected rapeseed meal. High supply continued to suppress the soybean meal market. For oils, the high inventory in Malaysia and the improvement in January's supply - demand situation are in a game, but factors such as the setback of Indonesia's B50 implementation and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations have put pressure on the market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading atmosphere in the domestic liquid caustic soda market is dull today. The prices of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong and Hebei regions have decreased, the price of 48% liquid caustic soda in Jiangsu region has decreased, and the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region has increased. The enthusiasm of downstream buyers in Shandong region is low, and recently some warehouse receipt goods have entered the market, impacting the market price. The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda has decreased, the trading of 50% liquid caustic soda is stable, and the price remains unchanged. The mainstream transaction price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong region today is 650 - 760 yuan/ton. The purchase price of liquid caustic soda by a large local downstream alumina factory is 645 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong region is 1050 - 1210 yuan/ton, a decline from the previous working day's average price. The game between long and short positions is fierce, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Price Changes of Raw Materials and Products - **Raw Salt**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Northwest remain unchanged at 240, 260, and 180 respectively [1] - **Calcium Carbide**: The prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia remain unchanged at 250 and 3415 respectively [1] - **Liquid Chlorine**: The price in Shandong increases by 50 from 200 to 250, while the prices in Jiangsu and Northwest remain unchanged at 250 and - 100 respectively [1] - **32% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong remain unchanged at 2156, 2438, and 1075 respectively [1] - **50% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong remain unchanged at 2160, 1280, and 1300 respectively [1] - **Caustic Soda Flakes**: The prices in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, and Southwest remain unchanged at 3050, 2700, 2750, and 3375 respectively [1] - **PVC**: The price in Shandong remains unchanged at 3450 [1] 3.2 Futures and Basis - **Futures Main Contract**: The closing price in Inner Mongolia changes from 5550,2093 to 5550,2057, with a change of 0, - 36 [1] - **Basis**: The basis in Shandong increases by 38 from - 62 to - 24, and the basis in Jiangsu increases by 49 from 258 to 307 [1] 3.3 Price Differences and Profits - **Price Difference between 50% Caustic Soda and 32% Caustic Soda**: The price difference in Shandong remains unchanged at 4 [1] - **Price Difference between Caustic Soda Flakes and 50% Caustic Soda**: The price difference in Guangdong decreases by 31 from 48 to 16 [1] - **Regional Price Difference of 50% Caustic Soda**: The price difference between the east and Shandong remains unchanged at 515 [1] - **Regional Price Difference of Caustic Soda Flakes**: The price differences between Southwest and Inner Mongolia, and between Southwest and Shandong remain unchanged at 250 and 700 respectively [1] - **Chlor - alkali Profit**: The profit in Shandong increases by 1 from - 15 to - 14, and the profit in the Northwest decreases by 31 from 349 to 318 [1] 3.4 Electricity Price - The electricity prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia remain unchanged at 0.63 and 0.44 respectively [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 2026/1/16 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 業 | 现值 | 1647 | 1195 | 2218 | 1323 | 3128 | 1719 | | | 前値 | 1656 | 1147 | 2188 | 1250 | 3033 | 1690 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -0.54% | 4.21% | 1.37% | 5.84% | 3.13% | 1.72% | | 발 TE | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | | | 数 | | | | | | | | | | 现值 | 1956 | 3232 | | | | | | | 前値 | 1795 | 3143 | | | | | | | 涨跌幅 | 8.97% | 2.83% | | | | | tel Hol 新 iii ...

tied Volstility Surfas | 5700 6000 | | 6300 | 6600 | 6900 | 202 | 202 | 202 | 2022 | SS | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 行情概况 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1月14日，A股冲高回落，沪指盘中一度涨逾1%，逼近4200点，收盘录得下跌。市场成交额逼近4万亿元，续创历史新高。上证指数收跌 0.31%报4126.09点，深证成指涨0.56%，创业板指涨0.82%，北证50涨0.98%，科创50涨2.13%，万得全A涨0.31%，万得4500跌0.13%, | | | | | | | | | | | 中证A500持平。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 免责 | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人 投资建议，也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The PX market has experienced a rapid increase, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. The futures market dominates price discovery, showing "irrational exuberance" characteristics. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has reached $155, improving aromatics extraction economics. The PX market is at a critical point where speculative sentiment and fundamentals are intertwined. Domestic PTA maintains high operation rates, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. High gasoline spreads support aromatics. New polyester installations drive high polyester loads, keeping PTA consumption high, and the market's inventory intention increases with a rapidly strengthening basis. Although domestic polyester demand weakens seasonally, polyester factory production cuts are insufficient to form a negative feedback [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 5060 to 5075, a change of 15 [2]. - MEG domestic price increased from 3686 to 3711, a change of 25 [2]. - PTA closing price decreased from 5140 to 5116, a change of -24 [2]. - MEG closing price increased from 3815 to 3867, a change of 52 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6520 to 6510, a change of -10 [2]. - Short - fiber basis increased from 34 to 42, a change of 8 [2]. - 2 - 3 spread decreased from 16 to 18, a change of -2 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber spread decreased from 1270 to 1260, a change of -10 [2]. - East China water - bottle chip price increased from 6097 to 6148, a change of 51 [2]. - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 6097 to 6148, a change of 51 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6197 to 6248, a change of 51 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10600 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 4080 to 4090, a change of 10 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16600 [2]. - Cotton 328 price increased from 15610 to 15615, a change of 5 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1377 to 1381, a change of 5 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7210 [2]. - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 449 to 428, a change of -21 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7775 [2]. Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The short - fiber main futures dropped 32 to 6470. The price of polyester staple fiber production factories was stable, while traders' prices slightly declined. Downstream buyers purchased as needed, and on - site transactions were cautious. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6370 - 6650 RMB/ton (cash, spot, tax - included, self - pick - up), 6490 - 6770 RMB/ton (cash, spot, tax - included, delivered) in the North China market, and 6430 - 6630 RMB/ton (cash, spot, tax - included, delivered) in the Fujian market [2]. - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6140 - 6200 RMB/ton, with the average price increasing by 30 RMB/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures were strong, with strong cost - side support. Most supply - side offers were raised, market spot supplies were tight, the low - end price center continued to move up, and the market negotiation center increased [2]. Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, a change of 2.07% [3]. - Polyester staple fiber sales ratio decreased from 80.00% to 72.00%, a change of -8.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00% [3]. - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3].