Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Palm oil is dominated by oversupply pressure and performs the weakest, soybean oil oscillates between cost support and inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil is relatively strong but its rebound space is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Category Spot Price - **24 - degree palm oil**: On November 6, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8760, 8600, and 8540 respectively, with a decrease of 10 compared to November 5. The spot - basis of palm oil futures (South China) was 5000, 4000, and 3000 in these regions [1]. - **First - grade soybean oil**: On November 6, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8320, 8390, and 8490 respectively, with an increase of 10 compared to November 5 [1]. - **Fourth - grade rapeseed oil**: On November 6, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9780, 9830, and 10100 respectively, with an increase of 30 compared to November 5. The spot - basis of rapeseed oil futures (East China) was 3000 [1][2]. Futures Data - **Price difference between soybean and palm oil futures contracts**: On November 6, 2025, it was - 544, a decrease of 92 compared to November 5 [1]. - **Price difference between rapeseed and soybean oil futures contracts**: On November 6, 2025, it was 1376, a decrease of 107 compared to November 5 [1]. - **Warehouse receipts**: On November 6, 2025, the palm oil warehouse receipts were 650 (unchanged), soybean oil warehouse receipts were 26460 (a decrease of 984), and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 5112 (a decrease of 1726) compared to November 5 [1]. Industry News - **Palm oil supply**: Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to reach 56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October is expected to reach 2.44 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%, and the production is expected to be 1.94 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.6%. As of October 29, China's palm oil commercial inventory was 639,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.06% [2]. - **Soybean news**: Brazil's Supreme Court confirmed the validity of the soybean environmental protection agreement. StoneX lowered the 2025 US soybean yield to 53.6 bushels per acre. Brazil's soybean sowing progress was 47.1% on November 2 [2]. - **Rapeseed oil import**: The rapeseed oil import volume in November is expected to be 226,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.3%, due to the concentrated arrival of new - season rapeseed oil from Russia [2].

原油&燃料油数据日报 ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 能源化工研究中心 叶海文 从业资格证号: F3071622 投资咨询证号: Z0014205 数据来源: Wind 钢联数据库 | 国际油价震荡表现。当前地缘局势以及宏观驱动逐步减弱,油价暂时重回 | 基本面驱动逻辑。原油自身供需来仍处于宽松格局,供给端方面,在11月0PEC+ | 会议上,OPEC+计划在12月小幅增产13.7万桶/日,这是连续第三个月实施该增 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 幅,该决策旨在恢复市场份额，但可能加剧市场供应过剩担忧。此外在12月之 | 后,OPEC+还决定在2026年1月、2月和3月暂停增产。需求端方面,9月开始原油 | 原油 | 消费量逐渐下滑,其中美国原油消费旺季结束的标志是9月初的劳工节,全球原 | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The report is prepared by the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute, with Yang Lulin as the researcher, on November 7, 2025 [2] Group 2 - On November 6, 2025, the price of 0P2601 was 4276, a day-on-day decrease of -0.28% compared to November 5; the main contract position was 949, a day-on-day decrease of -1.86% [3] Group 3 - As of November 6, 2025, the daily and weekly price changes of various brands of double-offset paper and coated paper were 0.00% [3] Group 4 - As of November 6, 2025, the daily and weekly price changes of various types of papermaking raw materials were 0.00% [4] Group 5 - From September 12, 2025, to October 31, 2025, the double-offset paper production showed fluctuations in output, capacity utilization, factory inventory, and social inventory, and the production profits with chemimechanical pulp and hardwood pulp as the main raw materials also varied [4] Group 6 - The calculation methods of double-offset paper production profits with chemimechanical pulp and hardwood pulp as the main raw materials are provided [5] Group 7 - Recently, the fundamentals of the double-offset paper market have remained stable, with a slight increase in weekly output and inventory. Some paper mills have issued price increase letters, and it is recommended to consider shorting at high prices [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The narrative of strong terminal demand continues, the de - stocking of social inventory increases, and the degree of supply - demand mismatch deepens. However, from a fundamental perspective, the hedging pressure at the upper level is gradually released, weakening the upward momentum. The market has begun to show differences (there are rumors of mine resumption), and further stimulation from funds, events, and news is needed to continue the price increase. Otherwise, the price will be low [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 80,500 yuan with a decrease of 400 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 78,300 yuan with a decrease of 400 yuan [1] - For lithium carbonate futures contracts: Li2511 closed at 77,800 yuan with a decline of 1.12%; Li2512 closed at 79,060 yuan with a decline of 0.38%; Li2601 closed at 79,140 yuan with a decline of 0.45%; Li2602 closed at 79,000 yuan with a decline of 0.13%; Li2603 closed at 78,860 yuan with a decline of 0.43% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 920 yuan with a decrease of 11 yuan (Li2O: 5.5% - 6%); lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1,290 yuan with a decrease of 25 yuan; lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 2,085 yuan with a decrease of 30 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 6,990 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 8,340 yuan with a decrease of 80 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,925 yuan with a decrease of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 157,950 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 139,450 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 138,150 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200 yuan with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,360 yuan with a decrease of 980 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 80 yuan with an increase of 20 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 60 yuan with an increase of 100 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 127,358 tons with a decrease of 3,008 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 32,051 tons with a decrease of 1,630 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 53,288 tons with a decrease of 1,987 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 42,020 tons with an increase of 610 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 26,830 tons with an increase of 340 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 78,943 yuan, and the profit is 425 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 82,750 yuan, and the profit is - 5,412 yuan [3]

Group 1: Core View - Methanol prices have been falling due to high operating rates, weak downstream MTO demand, and high port inventories. Positive supply news stimulated the futures market to rise twice today, and the trading was mainly characterized by short - covering and profit - taking [7] Group 2: Market Data Spot Market - In the spot market, the current prices in Taicang, Inner Mongolia North Line, Shaanxi Guanzhong, Xinjiang, Shandong Linyi, and Henan are 2082, 1957, 1950, 1550, 2155, and 2020 respectively. The previous prices were 2082, 1967, 1990, 1550, 2155, and 2030 respectively. The price changes were 0, - 10, - 40, 0, 0, - 10 respectively [3] Futures Market - For futures contracts MA2601 and MA2605, the current prices are 2141 and 2236 respectively, the previous prices were 2115 and 2225 respectively, and the price increases were 0.49% and 1.23% respectively [3] Group 3: Supply News - Domestically, Inner Mongolia Jiutai New Materials' 2 million tons/year methanol plant unexpectedly stopped on November 5 and is planned to be overhauled for about 15 days. Abroad, the upstream natural gas supply of Iran's Sabalan and Kimia methanol plants will be cut off from November 22 [7] Group 4: Policy News - The State Council Tariff Commission will adjust the additional tariff measures on imported goods from the United States starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025. The 24% additional tariff rate on the United States will continue to be suspended for one year, and the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained [3] Group 5: International News - The Trump administration has formulated multiple military action plans against Venezuela, including direct strikes on President Maduro's troops and seizing control of oil fields. Trump has not decided whether and how to proceed. Senior White House advisers are pushing for tougher measures such as ousting Maduro. The US federal government shutdown has entered its 36th day, breaking the previous record [4]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Current situation: In Shandong and North China, the asphalt futures market decline has led to a pessimistic market sentiment. Middle - and downstream enterprises follow the "buy on rising" principle, and traders keep lowering their quotes. In East China, the increasing low - price asphalt in Zhenjiang warehouses restrains refinery sales, resulting in low market trading activity. In South China, major refineries adopt an intermittent production mode, and asphalt prices remain stable with controllable inventory. Future outlook: In the north, weak demand intensifies price competition, and low - price asphalt dominates the market. In the short term, asphalt prices are likely to be weak. In the south, although major refineries maintain low operating rates, the abundant low - price supply in Zhenjiang and Foshan warehouses restricts price increases [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Asphalt Spot Market - In different regions, the current asphalt spot prices in East China, North China, South China, Northeast, Northwest, and Shandong are 3450, 3210, 3380, 3580, 3980, and 3170 respectively. The previous values were 3450, 3230, 3400, 3590, 3980, and 3210. The price changes are 0, - 20, - 20, - 10, 0, and - 40 respectively [1] Asphalt Futures Market - For asphalt futures contracts BU2511, BU2512, BU2601, and BU2602, the current values are 3171, 3189, 3193, and 3208 respectively. The previous values were 3225, 3233, 3233, and 3246. The price increases are - 1.67%, - 1.36%, - 1.24%, and - 1.17% respectively [1] Oil Production Policy - OPEC+ announced that eight countries will increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, considering the stable global economic outlook and low - inventory market conditions. After December, due to seasonal factors, they will suspend production increases from January to March 2026. The 1.65 million barrels per day production cut may be partially or fully restored depending on market conditions. The next meeting of the eight OPEC+ members will be on November 30, 2025 [2] International Politics and Military News - There were reports that the US planned to launch an air strike on Venezuela, but President Trump denied the news. Trump also stated that he was not "seriously considering" providing "Tomahawk" cruise missiles to Ukraine. Brazil's President Lula is willing to assist in coordinating US - Venezuela relations, and Russia and Venezuela have established a strategic partnership [1][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market is in a weak and volatile state. The overall downward space may be limited as the short - term commodity market is weak. The recommended trading strategy is to hold long single - side positions [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Domestic Futures**: RU主力 decreased by 25 to 14850, NR主力 decreased by 25 to 11935, and BR主力 increased by 30 to 10235 [3] - **Foreign Futures**: Tocom RSS3 increased by 0.7 to 310.8 yen/kg, Sicom TF remained unchanged at 167.8 cents/kg [3] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as RU2605 - RU2601 increased by 10 to 95, RU2609 - RU2605 decreased by 15 to 55, etc [3] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - **Thailand**: The price of smoke - sheet rubber decreased by 0.70 to 58.30 baht/kg, and the price of glue remained stable at 56.30 baht/kg [3] - **Hainan and Yunnan**: The price of Yunnan glue for concentrated latex decreased by 200 to 13700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan rubber block for whole - milk decreased by 200 to 13600 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Factory Costs and Profits - **Delivery Profits**: Hainan's whole - milk latex delivery profit decreased by 27 to - 3067, while Yunnan's increased by 73 to - 547, and Thailand's increased by 15 to 500 [3] - **Production Profits**: Hainan's concentrated latex production profit remained unchanged, and Thailand's smoke - sheet rubber profit increased by 20 to 2045, etc [3] 3.4 Domestic Spot - **Light - colored Rubber**: The price of Vietnam 3L decreased by 50 to 14950, and the price of Thai mixed decreased by 20 to 14380 [3] - **Dark - colored Rubber**: The price of Thai standard increased by 3 to 12904, and the price of domestic standard II remained unchanged at 13700 [3] - **Latex and Synthetic Rubber**: The prices of Shanghai's Huangchunfa bulk latex and Hainan bulk latex decreased by 50, and the prices of synthetic rubbers such as BR9000, SBR1502, and SBR1712 also decreased [3] 3.5 Overseas Spot - The prices of overseas spot rubbers such as Thai mixed CIF, Malaysian mixed CIF, and Thai standard CIF all decreased [3] 3.6 Price Spreads - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as RU - Thai mixed decreased by 5 to 470, NR - Thai standard delivery profit decreased by 26 to - 863 [3] - **Spot Spreads**: The spreads between different rubber varieties also changed, such as the spread between old whole - milk and Vietnam 3L decreased by 50 to - 600 [3] 3.7 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index remained unchanged at 100.2092, the US dollar/Chinese yuan increased by 0.002 to 7.0901, and other exchange rates remained stable [3] - **Interest Rates**: SHIBOR - overnight remained unchanged at 1.315, and SHIBOR - seven - day increased by 0.008 to 1.423 [3] 3.8 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The price of raw material glue in Thailand remained stable, and the supply in Yunnan decreased slightly [3][4] - **Inventory**: As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 million tons (1.6%); the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 3%, and that of light - colored rubber decreased by 0.4% [4] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of full - steel tire and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. It offers trend judgments for various commodities within different sectors, including "oscillating", "bullish", and "bearish". 2. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuous period, with A - shares lacking a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to oscillate while accumulating momentum for the next upward movement. There is strong support below the stock index due to policy protection and abundant macro - liquidity [1]. - Different commodities in various sectors are affected by a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events, resulting in different price trends and investment outlooks. 3. Summary by Commodity Sectors Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Oscillating. A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, but there is strong support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillating. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold and Silver**: Oscillating. The tightness of the US dollar liquidity has eased, and precious metals are stabilizing and oscillating [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Oscillating. The tightness of the US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling. Limited industrial drivers and digested macro - benefits lead to an oscillating trend [1]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating. With small production profits, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and production and inventory are both increasing, pressuring the spot price. Attention should be paid to cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating. The US government shutdown has increased market risk aversion. LME zinc inventory is continuously decreasing, and the risk of a short squeeze remains, but domestic fundamentals are still in surplus, so be cautious when chasing high prices [1]. - **Nickel**: Oscillating. US economic data and Fed policy expectations affect market risk appetite. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and nickel prices are mainly affected by macro factors in the short term, with high inventory pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating. Macro - sentiment is volatile, and stainless steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - **Tin**: Oscillating. Macro - benefits have been digested, and considering the raw material shortage and good new - quality demand expectations, it is recommended to pay attention to buying at low prices in the long - term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Oscillating. Northwest production capacity is resuming, and southwest production is weak. The impact of the dry season is weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Oscillating. There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is expected to increase in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Oscillating. The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, and energy - storage demand is strong, but there is hedging pressure [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Oscillating. There are concerns about weakening industrial demand in the off - season, and attention should be paid to upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillating. The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is loose, and attention should be paid to upward price pressure [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating. Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but there is an upward opportunity for far - month contracts due to good commodity sentiment [1]. - **Coke**: Oscillating. There is cost support and direct demand, but high supply and inventory accumulation put pressure on the sector, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Oscillating. Short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strong, but high supply and downstream pressure limit price rebound [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillating. Coal and coke are strong due to tight supply, but downstream steel prices have weakened first, and there is a risk of the price returning to the oscillating range. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long at low prices in the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Oscillating. It is currently under the pressure of seasonal production increase and weak exports, but may rebound if export data improves in the traditional production - reduction cycle starting in November [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating. China's purchase of US soybeans may bring a loose supply expectation, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Oscillating. The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders and Canadian rapeseed harvest put pressure on the market [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating. Uncertainty in cotton demand exists due to the contradiction between Xinjiang's production capacity expansion and reduced spinning profit. The downside space is limited, but the new - crop basis and futures price may be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Oscillating. Typhoons have affected sugarcane production, and there is seasonal upward pressure, but the rebound space is limited after new - sugar listing [1]. - **Corn**: Oscillating. There is selling pressure in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate and bottom out. Attention should be paid to traders' inventory - building rhythm and policy changes [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating. Domestic soybean purchase and processing margins are poor, and the market may rebound to repair margins, but the supply is expected to be loose in the near and far terms, limiting the rebound height [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating. OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, geopolitical speculation has cooled, and trade policies have eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Oscillating. Similar to crude oil, affected by OPEC+ production policy, geopolitics, and trade policies [1]. - **Asphalt**: Bearish. Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be false, and supply is sufficient with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating. Supported by raw material cost, with decreasing intermediate inventory and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating. Crude oil price decline weakens the cost support of butadiene, and synthetic rubber supply is loose with high inventory [1]. - **PTA**: Oscillating. The news of the "anti - involution" policy, overseas and domestic device failures, and maintenance have affected production and prices [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Oscillating. It follows the decline of crude oil prices, but coal price increase strengthens cost support. The polyester peak season is ending without obvious decline [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillating. It is affected by the PTA price and cost, with a strengthening basis [1]. - **Styrene**: Oscillating. Weak Asian benzene prices, low device operating rates, and closed arbitrage windows have affected the market [1]. - **Urea**: Oscillating. Export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from the "anti - involution" policy and cost [1]. - **PE**: Oscillating. High supply leads to large inventory pressure, weakening maintenance, and slow - growing demand [1]. - **PP**: Oscillating. Insufficient maintenance support and new device production increase supply pressure, and demand improvement is less than expected [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillating. New device production and reduced maintenance increase supply pressure, and coal price increase strengthens cost support [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillating. Planned production expansion in Guangxi, reduced maintenance concentration, and potential short - squeeze risk [1]. - **LPG**: Oscillating. International oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and domestic spot fundamentals are stable [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - environment has mixed impacts on the non - ferrous metals sector. The US economic data shows signs of weakness, but the market risk appetite has recovered to some extent. The short - term price trends of different non - ferrous metals vary, with some facing downward pressure and others showing a tendency to fluctuate strongly or at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **LME (USD/ton)**: The prices of lead, zinc, nickel, tin, and copper all decreased, with lead down 2.5%, zinc down 0.25%, nickel down 0.2%, tin down 0.7%, and copper down 1.43% in spot prices. The 15:00 futures prices also mostly decreased, such as lead down 1.92%, zinc down 1.47%, etc. [1] - **SHFE (CNY/ton)**: The prices of zinc, aluminum, lead, and tin all decreased, with zinc down 0.49%, aluminum down 0.88%, lead down 0.93%, and tin down 1.44% in spot prices. The futures prices also showed different degrees of decline [1]. 3.2 Inventory Indicators - **LME (tons)**: The copper inventory increased by 0.06%, zinc inventory increased by 0.52%, nickel inventory increased by 0.15%, and tin inventory increased by 2.8%. [1] - **SHFE (tons)**: The copper inventory increased by 10.83%, zinc inventory decreased by 5.27%, aluminum inventory decreased by 3.89%, lead inventory increased by 1.87%, and tin inventory increased by 2.65% [1]. 3.3 Ascending and Descending Premium Indicators - **LME (USD/ton)**: The copper premium decreased by 4.75, zinc premium increased by 8.07, aluminum premium decreased by 2.52, and nickel premium decreased by 2.17 [1]. - **SHFE (CNY/ton)**: The copper premium increased by 25, zinc premium decreased by 30, and lead premium decreased by 10 [1]. 3.4 Price Ratio and Spread Indicators - **Price Ratio**: The copper, aluminum, and tin price ratios decreased, while the zinc and nickel price ratios increased. For example, the copper price ratio decreased by 0.32%, and the zinc price ratio increased by 1.46% [1]. - **Spread**: The copper spread decreased by 20, zinc spread decreased by 10, aluminum spread increased by 20, and tin spread increased by 90 [1]. 3.5 Operation Strategies - **Copper**: Although the market risk appetite has recovered, the copper price is under downward pressure due to factors such as the digestion of positive sentiment and the rise of the US dollar index, but the downward space is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: The industrial - side driving force is limited, but the macro - environment still provides support, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Zinc**: The external market still has the risk of a short squeeze. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the internal - external price ratio is expected to remain low in the short term [1]. - **Nickel**: The short - term nickel price may fluctuate at the bottom. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short term, and pay attention to the macro - environment and the situation of Indonesian ore in the fourth quarter [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil is dominated by oversupply pressure and performs the weakest; soybean oil fluctuates between cost support and inventory pressure; rapeseed oil is relatively strong but its rebound space is limited [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - On November 5, 2025, the spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8770, 8610, and 8550 respectively, all down 20 from the previous day [1] - The spot prices of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8310, 8380, and 8480 respectively, all down 40 from the previous day [1] - The spot prices of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9750, 9800, and 10070 respectively, all down 20 from the previous day [1] 3.2 Futures Data - On November 5, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 452, up 56 from the previous day; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1269, down 66 from the previous day [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts remained at 650; the soybean oil warehouse receipts were 27444, down 200 from the previous day; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 6838, down 702 from the previous day [1] 3.3 Industry News - Indonesia's palm oil production forecast for 2025 is raised to 56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%, strengthening the global supply - loosening expectation [2] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October is expected to reach a two - year high. The inventory at the end of October is expected to be 2.44 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%, and the highest since October 2023, with a year - on - year increase of nearly 30%. The crude palm oil production in the same period is expected to be 1.94 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.6%, the highest since October 2018 [2] - As of October 29, the national palm oil commercial inventory was 639,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.06%, rising for three consecutive weeks and at a recent high [2] - Brazil's Supreme Court confirmed the validity of the soybean environmental protection agreement [2] - StoneX lowered the 2025 US soybean yield per acre to 53.6 bushels, still higher than the USDA forecast [2] - Brazil's soybean sowing progress was 47.1% on November 2, lagging behind the same period last year and the five - year average [2] - The rapeseed oil import volume in November is expected to be 226,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26.3%) due to the concentrated arrival of Russia's new - season rapeseed oil [2]