生 400-8888-598 网 www.itf.com.cn | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | ITC E KET | | | --- | --- | --- | | 有色全属数据 | 一 不反 | | | 国贸期货研究员 方冒强 | 投资咨询号:Z0015300 从业资格号:F3043701 | | | 有色金属研究中心 谢灵 | 2025/12/30 投资咨询号:Z0015788 从业资格号:F3040017 | | | 价格指标 变化 (%) 15:00期货价格 现货价格 | 变化 (%) 图表 | | | 制 12253 1.52 12058. 5 | 0. 25 | | | | LME有色金属期货库存(吨) | | | 3059. 5 锌 -0. 87 3077.5 | -0. 73 | | | LME | 1500000 | | | 1945. 5 -0. 03 2948 铝 (美元/吨) | 0. 34 | | | 镍 15435 -0. 19 15545 | -1.43 1000000 | | | 期货与现货 锡 -1.02 42340 43155 | -0. 65 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday (December 29), domestic commodity futures markets closed with mixed results. Industrial products showed a mixed performance, while agricultural products were also a mix of gains and losses. There are different trends and potential risks in various sectors such as black metals, base metals, energy - chemicals, and oilseeds [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Black Metals - Black metals led the gains. Steel prices had limited fluctuations in a supply - demand weak pattern, with a slight increase in closing prices. Steel mills are under profit pressure, with a strong willingness to control production. As the off - season deepens, there may be a risk of price correction for rolled steel products. Policy changes should be monitored [1] 3.2 Base Metals - Most base metals rose. Copper prices climbed on Friday night but fell in the afternoon. Low inventory and demand resilience support prices, but high prices may suppress purchases, and the market may enter a inventory - building phase. Carbonate lithium prices dropped significantly, with a marginal weakening in fundamentals [2] 3.3 Energy - Chemicals - Most energy - chemicals declined. After Christmas, international crude oil prices dropped, and domestic crude oil followed. The future of the crude oil market is influenced by supply - surplus expectations and uncertain geopolitical factors [2] 3.4 Oilseeds - Most oilseeds declined. External market weakness affected domestic oils. The inventory situation of Malaysian palm oil may suppress short - term rebounds, and attention should be paid to the full - month production and export performance of Malaysian palm oil in December. Changes in the US soybean oil market after the implementation of the 45Z tax credit rule also need to be monitored [3][4] 3.5 Index Performance - The overall performance of the Guomao Commodity Composite Index decreased by 0.30%. The Guomao Industrial Products Index decreased by 0.22%, the Guomao Agricultural Products Index decreased by 0.20%, and the Guomao Energy - Chemicals Index decreased by 1.09%, while the Guomao Oilseeds Index decreased by 0.37% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high-frequency data in Malaysia has improved, but there is still significant pressure in December. It is expected that the market will continue to decline after a short-term rebound, waiting for the release of MPOB's December data. For rapeseed oil, influenced by traders' purchases and obstacles in Australian imports, the price has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and avoid chasing high prices. For soybean oil, wait for the USDA's January report and pay attention to the adjustment of the new US soybean yield per unit area [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - **24-degree Palm Oil**: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8,650, 8,590, and 8,490 respectively, down 20 from December 26, 2025. The spot basis of palm oil futures in South China was 5,000, 4,000, and 3,000 [1] - **First-grade Soybean Oil**: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged at 8,250, 8,390, and 8,400 respectively compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - **Fourth-grade Rapeseed Oil**: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9,880, 9,930, and 10,130 respectively, up 100 from December 26, 2025. The spot basis of soybean oil futures in North China was 2,000, 1,500, and 1,000 [1] Futures Data - **Soybean-Palm Oil Main Contract Spread**: On December 29, 2025, it was -694, up 38 from December 26, 2025 [1] - **Rapeseed-Soybean Main Contract Spread**: On December 29, 2025, it was 1,222, up 12 from December 26, 2025 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil remained unchanged at 260, 28,264, and 3,456 respectively from December 26 to 29, 2025 [1] Industry News - **Indonesia**: On December 19, 2025, the Indonesian Energy Minister stated that the country had launched the road test of B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, which is expected to last about six months, and the mandatory use policy is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2] - **Malaysia**: MPOC expects the crude palm oil price to fluctuate between 3,800 and 4,100 ringgit per ton in January next year. According to MPOA, from December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.44% compared to the same period last month. According to ITS, from December 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month; from December 1 - 20, exports increased by 2.4%; from December 1 - 15, exports decreased by 15.9%. According to AmSpec, from December 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 16.4% compared to the same period last month [2] - **Brazil**: ANEC expects Brazil's soybean exports in December to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons [2] - **USA**: The USDA announced that private exporters reported the sale of 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [2] - **India**: According to SEA data, India's palm oil imports in November increased by about 5% to 632,341 tons compared to October. Soybean oil imports decreased by more than 18% to 370,661 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by 45% to 142,953 tons, reaching a two - year low. The total edible oil imports in November decreased by 13.3% to 1.15 million tons, a seven - month low. In November, India imported 69,919 tons of soybean oil from China, a record high [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The overall situation of the urea market is viewed as oscillating. The positive factors are mainly from the macro - level and cost side, while the negative factor is the weak domestic demand. Although urea exports are advancing, the domestic supply - demand situation remains loose, and the market still has a downward trend in the near term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cost - The price of pulverized coal and anthracite small pieces remained unchanged at 500.00 and 940.00 respectively. The price of natural gas increased by 100.00 to 3550.00 [1]. Price - Domestic prices in regions such as Henan, Hebei, Anhui, Shandong, and Shanxi decreased, with drops ranging from 10.00 to 20.00. International prices including China FOB, Middle East FOB, Southeast Asia CFR, and Brazil CFR remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory all remained unchanged at 106.89, 17.70, and 16700.00 respectively [1]. Supply - The 5 - day production, overall开工率, coal - based开工率, and gas - based开工率 remained unchanged. The待发订单 also remained the same [1]. Demand - The开工率 of compound fertilizer, melamine, and formaldehyde remained unchanged at 37.75, 58.07, and 42.38 respectively [1]. Profit - The profit of fixed - bed remained at - 217.00, water - coal slurry at 184.00, and natural gas at - 238.00 [1]. Associated Products - The prices of liquid ammonia, melamine, and methanol increased by 30.00, 30.00, and 10.00 respectively, while the price of compound fertilizer remained unchanged at 2620.00 [1]. Futures - The结算价 remained unchanged at 1735.00, the基差 decreased by 10.00 to - 35.00. The成交量 increased by 11454.00 to 8114679.00, and the持仓量 increased by 1149.00 to 194803.00. The仓車量 remained unchanged at 10750.00 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [2][3][4][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 26, the market showed a volatile trend with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index recorded an eight - consecutive - day gain despite two intraday dips. The short - term sentiment deviated from the rise - fall ratio, with nearly 3,400 stocks falling but nearly 100 stocks hitting the daily limit. The electrolyte, lithium ore, and industrial metal concepts led the gains, while the lithography machine, optical chip, and OCS concepts led the losses [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were 3045.4036, 4604.27, and 4736.66 respectively. The turnovers were 34.10 billion yuan, 175.40 billion yuan, and the trading volumes were 0.41 billion and 266.26 billion respectively. The price - to - earnings ratios were not provided in a straightforward way, but the relevant data shows the market performance of these indices [3] - **Options Trading**: For the Shanghai 50 index options, the trading volume of call options was 3.54 million contracts, put options was 2.47 million contracts, and the open interest was 5.10 million contracts. For the CSI 300 index options, the trading volume of call options was 13.58 million contracts, put options was 9.03 million contracts, and the open interest was 16.10 million contracts. For the CSI 1000 index options, the trading volume of call options was 32.12 million contracts, put options was 19.53 million contracts, and the open interest was 27.04 million contracts. The PCR (put - call ratio) for each index was also provided, with values of 0.68, 0.71, and 0.98 respectively [3] 3.2 Volatility Analysis - **Historical Volatility and Volatility Cone**: The historical volatility and volatility cones of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 were presented, including the minimum, maximum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% percentile values, and the current values. The historical volatility was analyzed for different time periods such as 5 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, and 120 - day [3][4] - **Volatility Smile Curve**: The volatility smile curves of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility were also shown, with different strike prices and corresponding implied volatility values [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the corn market will be in a state of oscillation, with the disk expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [4]. - The trading strategy suggests a one - side trading of oscillating and slightly stronger, and an arbitrage strategy of C03 - C05 positive spread [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation of the corn market is characterized by a strong reality and weak expectations, with the disk oscillating and slightly stronger. The fast progress of grain sales at the grass - roots level, low inventory levels at ports and downstream, and the uninitiated strategic inventory building of most traders are expected to drive the disk to be oscillating and slightly stronger under the replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. The current grass - roots grain sales progress has exceeded 40%, faster than the same period last year. In the 2025/2026 season, the planting cost continues to decline. There are increases in production in the Northeast and Northwest, and a decrease in production in North China. The overall national production is expected to be abundant [4]. - **Demand**: Slightly bullish. In November 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.73 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. The proportion of corn in the compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 43.8%. The high pig inventory and the slow capacity reduction support short - term feed demand, but the current breeding profit is in deficit, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. Feed enterprises have a rigid demand for inventory replenishment but are cautious. Deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs but are also cautious [4]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at the northern ports is slow, and the inventory is still at a low level. The grain inventory at the southern ports is also at a low level. Feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises have low corn inventories [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: Slightly bullish. The basis is at a relatively high level, and the 1 - 3 spread is firm [4]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The breeding profits of pigs and egg - laying poultry are in deficit, and the processing profits of deep - processing starch and alcohol are also in deficit [4]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. Considering the planting cost, the valuation of new - season corn is high; from the perspective of the basis, the valuation of the corn futures price is low [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price is stable with a slight decline [7]. - **Futures Market**: The positions are at a high level [11]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Grain Sales Progress**: The sales progress is fast, and the channel supply volume is shrinking [21][24]. - **Port Situation**: The inventory at the northern ports has increased slightly, and the grain inventory at the southern ports is at a low level [38]. - **Feed Enterprises**: The inventory days are at a low level, and the monthly feed production shows certain trends [44][46]. - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: Pig prices have declined slightly, and the weight reduction is not obvious. The breeding profits of pigs, broilers, and egg - laying poultry are in different situations [48][52][56]. - **Deep - processing Industry**: The corn consumption of deep - processing shows seasonal recovery, and the inventory is at a low level. The starch processing profit has deteriorated, and the starch inventory is at a high level. The alcohol production rate has declined, and the processing profit has decreased [64][72][94]. - **Starch Demand**: The performance in the beverage sector is poor, while the papermaking sector has a high operating rate and a significant increase in profit [84][85]. - **Wheat Market**: The wheat price has increased, and the flour demand is weak [102]. 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **2025/2026 Report**: The corn inventory - to - consumption ratios of major exporting countries have been lowered [113]. - **US Corn**: The export sales performance is good [119].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall outlook for the粕类 market is near - strong and far - weak. Domestic rumors of customs controlling soybean imports are positive for near - term contracts and long - short spreads. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak. The trading strategy suggests a range - bound trend for single - sided trading and a long M3 - short M5 spread for arbitrage. Attention should be paid to policies and weather conditions [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bullish. The predicted 25/26 Brazilian new - crop soybean production is 177.6 million tons. As of December 20, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 97.6%. As of December 17, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 67.3%. There are no obvious short - term weather problems. In January, domestic soybean and soybean meal are expected to seasonally reduce inventory. Customs are rumored to strictly control soybean imports until the end of May, increasing concerns about domestic soybean meal supply before May next year. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease, while the supply of Australian rapeseed is expected to increase. The global rapeseed production in 2025/26 is expected to have a restorative increase [5]. - **Demand**: The demand for soybean meal is neutral, and that for rapeseed meal is bearish. In the short term, the high pig inventory is expected to be maintained, supporting feed demand, but the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased. Recently, the downstream trading of soybean meal was normal, and the pick - up performance was good, while the downstream trading and pick - up of rapeseed meal were cautious [5]. - **Inventory**: It is slightly bullish. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, the reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the spot supply pressure is still large, but it is expected to accelerate inventory reduction in January. This week, the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises increased. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory has been continuously decreasing [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral [5]. - **Profit**: It is bearish. The new - crop soybean purchase and crushing profit in China is good, and the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed is also good [5]. - **Valuation**: It is neutral. From the perspective of crushing profit, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively high valuation; from the perspective of absolute price, it is at a relatively low valuation [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is bullish. There are rumors in China that the customs held a meeting to strictly control soybean imports until the end of the month [5]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is bullish for near - term contracts. Rumors of customs controlling soybean imports are positive for near - term contracts and long - short spreads. Pay attention to customs policy dynamics. US soybean exports are weak, there is no obvious hype driver for South American weather, and the Brazilian premium is expected to be under pressure in the future. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, showing an overall pattern of near - strong and far - weak [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - sided trading is expected to be range - bound, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long M3 and short M5. Risks to focus on include policies and weather [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of 粕类 - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In December, the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season remained unchanged, and the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio increased. The global rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio also increased [31][38]. - **Soybean Processing and Export**: The US soybean domestic crushing profit has declined, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA monthly soybean crushing volume are presented, and the US soybean export sales progress is slow [48][55][58]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Import and Price**: The Brazilian soybean planting progress, soybean CNF premium, and import soybean futures margin are shown. The Canadian rapeseed CFR price and import crushing profit are also provided, along with the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate [64][66][69]. - **Domestic Inventory and Trading Volume**: Domestic soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal inventories are at high levels, and the feed enterprise inventory has increased. The trading volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up performance is good, while the trading volume and pick - up of rapeseed meal are cautious. The feed monthly output, pig, chicken, and egg chicken breeding profits, and related inventory data are also presented [76][93][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 26, the broader market showed a volatile trend with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index recorded an eight - consecutive - day gain after two intraday dips were recovered. The commercial space concept attracted capital inflows in the afternoon, while other sectors faced significant long - short divergence. The short - term sentiment deviated from the gain - loss ratio, with nearly 3,400 stocks falling but nearly 100 stocks hitting the daily limit. The electrolyte, lithium ore, and industrial metal concepts led the gains, while the lithography machine, optical chip, and OCS concepts led the losses [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Index Performance - The closing price of the Shanghai 50 Index was 3,045.4036 with a turnover of 34.1 billion yuan, a trading volume of 0.41 billion, and a daily change of 0.32%. The closing price of the CSI 300 Index was 4,604.27 with a turnover of 175.4 billion yuan, a trading volume of 0.35 billion, and a daily change of 266.26. The closing price of the CSI 1000 Index was 4,736.66, and its specific turnover and trading volume were not clearly stated [3] 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation - For the Shanghai 50 Index options, the trading volume of call options was 3.54 million contracts, and that of put options was 2.47 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 5.10 million contracts, and that of put options was 3.03 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 0.68, and the open interest PCR was 1.07. For the CSI 300 Index options, the trading volume of call options was 13.58 million contracts, and that of put options was 9.03 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 4.55 million contracts, and that of put options was 0.50 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 0.71, and the open interest PCR was 9.42. For the CSI 1000 Index options, the trading volume of call options was 32.12 million contracts, and that of put options was 19.53 million contracts. The open interest of call options was 27.04 million contracts, and that of put options was 12.58 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 0.64, and the open interest PCR was 0.98 [3] 3.3 Volatility Analysis - **Shanghai 50 Volatility Analysis**: The historical volatility chart and volatility cone of the Shanghai 50 Index were presented, including data such as the 5 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, and 120 - day historical volatilities, as well as the minimum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90%, and maximum values. The volatility smile curve and the next - month at - the - money implied volatility were also shown [3][4] - **CSI 300 Volatility Analysis**: Similar to the Shanghai 50 Index, the historical volatility chart, volatility cone, volatility smile curve, and the next - month at - the - money implied volatility of the CSI 300 Index were provided [4] - **CSI 1000 Volatility Analysis**: The report included the historical volatility chart, volatility cone, volatility smile curve, and the next - month at - the - money implied volatility of the CSI 1000 Index [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: The PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in Q1 2026, with the PX - naphtha spread widening to $360 and the PX - mixed xylene spread rising to $244. PTA maintains high - level production, and the polyester load stays high due to new device launches. The PTA price is boosted by the overall commodity market sentiment [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Overseas MEG device maintenance plans increase, but with coal prices falling and new devices coming into operation, the supply pressure is large. The price lacks effective support, though it may get support from domestic policies [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Changes - **INE Crude Oil**: The price dropped from 442.7 yuan/barrel on December 25, 2025, to 441.8 yuan/barrel on December 26, 2025, a decrease of 0.90 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The value increased from 1934.9 yuan/ton to 2069.4 yuan/ton, a rise of 134.54 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA/SC Ratio**: Rose from 1.6014 to 1.6445, an increase of 0.0431 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: Increased from 901 to 919, a rise of 18 [2]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: Widened from 361 to 377, an increase of 16 [2]. - **PTA Main Futures Price**: Rose from 5152 yuan/ton to 5280 yuan/ton, an increase of 128 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Price**: Increased from 5050 yuan/ton to 5175 yuan/ton, a rise of 125 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Spot Processing Fee**: Decreased from 281.8 yuan/ton to 278.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Futures Processing Fee**: Rose from 363.8 yuan/ton to 398.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.7 yuan/ton [2]. - **PTA Main Basis**: Changed from (13) to (65), a decrease of 52 [2]. - **PTA Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Decreased from 118,854 to 116,646, a decrease of 2,208 [2]. - **MEG Main Futures Price**: Rose from 3818 yuan/ton to 3846 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG - Naphtha**: Changed from (147.79) to (141.98), an increase of 5.8 [2]. - **MEG Domestic Market**: Increased from 3653 to 3666, a rise of 13 [2]. - **MEG Main Basis**: Rose from 0 to 40, an increase of 40 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Conditions - **PX Start - up Rate**: Remained at 86.28% [2]. - **PTA Start - up Rate**: Increased from 75.49% to 76.95%, a rise of 1.46% [2]. - **MEG Start - up Rate**: Remained at 61.50% [2]. - **Polyester Load**: Increased from 88.65% to 88.94%, a rise of 0.29% [2]. Product Price and Cash - Flow Changes - **POY150D/48F**: The price increased from 6440 to 6570, a rise of 130 [2]. - **POY Cash - Flow**: Improved from (352) to (333), an increase of 19 [2]. - **FDY150D/96F**: The price increased from 6730 to 6810, a rise of 80 [2]. - **FDY Cash - Flow**: Deteriorated from (562) to (593), a decrease of 31 [2]. - **DTY150D/48F**: The price increased from 7755 to 7760, a rise of 5 [2]. - **DTY Cash - Flow**: Deteriorated from (237) to (343), a decrease of 106 [2]. - **Long - Filament Production and Sales**: Increased from 41% to 48%, a rise of 7% [2]. - **1.4D Direct - Spun Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price increased from 6575 to 6690, a rise of 115 [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Cash - Flow**: Improved from 133 to 137, an increase of 4 [2]. - **Staple Fiber Production and Sales**: Increased from 56% to 86%, a rise of 30% [2]. - **Semi - Bright Chip**: The price increased from 5720 to 5780, a rise of 60 [2]. - **Chip Cash - Flow**: Deteriorated from (172) to (223), a decrease of 51 [2]. - **Chip Production and Sales**: Increased from 49% to 55%, a rise of 6% [2]. Device Maintenance A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in Ningbo, which stopped for maintenance in late November, is expected to resume operation on the 24th [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On December 26, the price of precious metals continued to rise significantly, especially silver. The main driver for silver's rise comes from the imbalance in the supply - demand structure, tight spot market, capital sentiment, and insufficient overseas short - term market liquidity. The gold price rose steadily, causing the gold - silver ratio to drop significantly. The domestic gold - silver ratio has dropped to around 53, and the overseas ratio to around 57, the lowest since 2013 [6]. - In the short term, the trading price of precious metals is expected to remain high and strong. However, due to the obvious "short squeeze" in the silver market, investors are advised to be cautious about chasing the rise in the short term and consider gradually taking profit on long positions to control risks [6]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle, and factors such as increased geopolitical uncertainty, rising dollar credit risk, and continued allocation demand from global central banks, institutions, and residents will likely drive the gold price higher. Long - term investors are recommended to buy on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Tracking - On December 26th, compared with the 25th, London gold spot rose 0.7% to $4511.30/oz, London silver spot rose 3.9% to $74.64/oz, COMEX gold rose 0.8% to $4541.70/oz, and COMEX silver rose 4.1% to $74.84/oz. The domestic AU2602 rose 0.7% to 1016.3 yuan/g, and AG2602 rose 5.3% to 18319 yuan/kg [5]. - Regarding price differences, on December 26th compared with the 25th, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference rose 5.7%, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference rose 402.8%, the gold internal - external price difference (TD - London) fell 4.5%, and the silver internal - external price difference (TD - London) fell 37.9% [5]. 2. Position Data - As of December 26th, compared with the 24th, the gold ETF - SPDR position rose 0.27% to 1071.13 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position fell 0.34% to 16390.5638 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions rose 4.63% to 280920 contracts, non - commercial short positions rose 5.25% to 46942 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions rose 4.51% to 233978 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions fell 15.05% to 56034 contracts, non - commercial short positions fell 7.37% to 19682 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions fell 18.69% to 36352 contracts [5]. 3. Inventory Data - On December 26th, compared with the 25th, SHFE gold inventory rose 4.25% to 97692 kg, and SHFE silver inventory fell 3.87% to 819431 kg. Compared with the 24th, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.09% to 36191255 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.36% to 449727730 troy ounces [5]. 4. Interest Rate/Foreign Exchange/Stock Market - On December 26th, compared with the 25th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate fell 0.05% to 7.04. Compared with the 24th, the US dollar index rose 0.08% to 98.03, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.29% to 3.46%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.24% to 4.14%, the VIX rose 0.97% to 13.60, the S&P 500 fell 0.03% to 6929.94, and NYMEX crude oil fell 2.52% to $56.93 [5]. 5. Market Review and Outlook - On December 26th, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.75% to 1016.3 yuan/g, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 6.6% to 18319 yuan/kg [5].