// 化。前期ICE原糖跌至18美分/磅以下触发国内买船,近月采购量超百万吨,预计6月中下旬起进口糖将陆续到港,三季度供 结 应压力增加。巴西配额外进口成本降至5980元/吨,与国内现货价差缩窄至150元/吨,进口利润修复刺激后续采购。1-3月 糖浆及预拌粉进口24.2万吨（折糖约15. 6万吨）,低价替代品持续挤占国产糖消费空间。综上所述,郑糖维持震荡偏弱。 | | | 巴西糖配额外进口利润 --- 2019 -- 2020 ----- 2021 23/24 - 19/20 ------ 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------- 22/23 - 24/25 2400 800 2023 -- 2022 2024 1600 600 800 400 -800 200 -1600 -2400 0 12月 11月 5月 10月 1月 2月 3月 4月 6月 7月 8月 9月 郑糖9-1月差 柳州-09基差 - SR1909-SR2001 SR1809-SR1901 ---- SR2009-SR2101 -- SR1909 - SR1809 ------ SR2009 ==== SR2109 SR2109- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Downstream enters the off - season with stable production scheduling, and the supply side increases hedging output driven by price rebound. Although the ore price shows signs of stabilization, the downstream restocking amplitude is small. The fundamentals are characterized by strong supply and stable demand, and the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to decline in the short term. There is no sign of production reduction at the ore end, and there is a possibility that the lithium carbonate price and the ore price will form a negative feedback again later [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,500 yuan, down 150 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 58,900 yuan, down 150 yuan [1] 3.2 Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2506 closes at 60,000 yuan, up 0.03%; 2507 closes at 60,240 yuan, down 0.13%; 2508 down 0.46%; 2509 closes at 59,780 yuan, down 0.7%; 2510 closes at 59,780 yuan, down 0.93% [1] 3.3 Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 624 yuan, down 5 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) price is 5 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) price is 1225 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) price is 5660 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) price is 6595 yuan [1][2] 3.4 Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,405 yuan, down 70 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 143,550 yuan, down 140 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,575 yuan, down 110 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 121,075 yuan, down 140 yuan [2] 3.5 Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 720 yuan, down 130 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 240 yuan, up 220 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 460 yuan, up 320 yuan [2] 3.6 Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 133,549 tons, up 1117 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 57,653 tons, up 537 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 40,686 tons, down 390 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 35,210 tons, up 970 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 32,043 tons, down 75 tons [2] 3.7 Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 536 yuan, and the profit is - 879 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 65,237 yuan, and the profit is - 7076 yuan [3] 3.8 Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing. It has banned the export of lithium ore since 2022 to encourage more domestic processing by miners [3]

【焦煤焦炭】焦煤竞拍跌幅放缓,盘面升水现货 7000 1000 6000 800 5000 600 4000 3000 2000 1000 -200 螺纹基差(右轴) = 价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm: - 期货收盘价(活跃合约):螺纹钢 8000 800 600 6000 400 200 -200 024 热卷基差(右轴) - 价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4. 期货收盘价(活跃合约):热轧卷板 1000 佳煤是寿(石轴 5000 800 4000 600 3000 400 2000 200 1000 ■ 焦炭基差(右轴) - 青岛港:出库价(含税):准一级冶金焦(A13.S0 一 期货收盘价(活跃合约):焦炭 ttps:// #ZOZ 2022 | 铁矿基差(右轴) 年板价:青岛港:澳大利亚 · 超特矿粉 2000 1500 1000 -500 【钢材】震荡区间,把握区间上沿套保机会 周一期现价格小反弹,但现货出货意愿增强,价格反弹的力度略犹豫。海外层面,伊朗局势对商品最大的影响应该是能源系 列,间接的角度有可能会进一步强化资本市场煤炭下跌的不顺畅,但对现货的影响力就更弱,暂时作为一个事件驱动的影响 ...

| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITC 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | SAL | | | | | | | | 农产品研究中心 >> | 国贸期货研究院 | 杨璐琳 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/6/17 | | | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | 2025年6月16日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年6月16日 | 日环比 | 10 m/ 10 | | | SP2601 | 5236 | 0. 65% | -1. 13% | | 针叶浆银星 | 6100 | 0. 00% | -0. 81% | | 期货价格 | SP2507 | 5242 | -0. 49% | -1.95% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5300 | 0. 00% | -0. 93% | | | SP2509 | 5232 | 0. 65% | -1. ...

直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 涤纶短纤产销 28. 00% 134. 00% 162. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67. 00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 14000 10000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始欲德 ■T325加工费(右轴) t325年演到价格 会想坝金流 ·1.4D直纺条短 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 -200 9000 + 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2025-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S价格与利润 中空短纤价格与现金流 2500 10000 22500 4000 涂棉纱利润 泽棉纱65/35 4 ...

贵金属数据日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 入 期 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点代 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/6/16 | 3415. 20 | 36. 38 | 3434. 80 | 36. 48 | 792. 30 | 8858. 00 | 788. 66 | 8831.00 | | (本表 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, it is expected that crude oil prices will continue to rise, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow. The polyester downstream load remains at 91.3% despite the expectation of a reduction, and the actual polyester output has reached a new high. PTA will go through a destocking process, and the spot is becoming tight. For ethylene glycol, although the overall import volume from Iran is limited, it will continue to destock, and the arrival volume will decrease [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil rose from 529.9 yuan/barrel on June 13, 2025, to 541.6 yuan/barrel on June 16, an increase of 11.7 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased from 931.2 yuan/ton to 830.1 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio dropped from 1.2418 to 1.2109. The PTA main contract futures price fell from 4782 yuan/ton to 4766 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped slightly from 5010 yuan/ton to 5005 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 382.6 yuan/ton to 311.5 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee decreased from 154.6 yuan/ton to 72.5 yuan/ton. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1002 to 84853 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main contract futures price rose from 4334 yuan/ton to 4374 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from (135.61) yuan/ton to (131.80) yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price rose from 4400 yuan/ton to 4426 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX rose from 854 to 866, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 234 to 246. The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 83.07% [2]. - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F prices all increased, with cash flows turning positive. The long - filament sales rate dropped from 447% to 30% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber rose from 6665 to 6690, and the cash flow increased from 7 to 28. The short - fiber sales rate dropped from 105% to 52% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The semi - bright chip price rose from 5925 to 5960, and the chip cash flow increased from (183) to (152). The chip sales rate dropped from 257% to 40% [2]. 3.2 Industry Operating Rates - The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 83.07%, the PTA operating rate decreased from 83.56% to 81.57%, the MEG operating rate increased from 54.40% to 56.16%, and the polyester load increased slightly from 89.64% to 89.74% [2]. 3.3 Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6, and a 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been shut down for maintenance recently, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 低位价格弹性大，基本面延续偏弱 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-06-16 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供需双弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 产量下降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.57万吨，比5日-0.7%。行业开工率为75.42%，比5日-0.25个百分点；行业产能利用率为77.48%，比5 日-0.66个百分点。本周2条产线放水，2条产线点火，点火产线暂无玻璃产出，所以供应量呈现下降趋势。下周1条前期点火产线或将开始出玻 | | | | | 璃，另有1条产线存在放水预期，整体产量持稳为主。 | | | 需求 | 偏空 | 需求预期走弱，淡季来临，需求边际下滑。稳增长压力较大，中期地产颓势难挽，竣工数据同比延续下滑，后市需求担忧犹存。 | | | 库 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector showed a pattern of rising and then falling due to the decline in risk appetite. The copper market is affected by various factors such as macro - economic data, raw material supply, and demand. The zinc market is expected to be weak in the short - term with a supply increase in June. The nickel and stainless - steel market is in a weak and volatile state, influenced by geopolitical risks, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics [1][93][209] - For copper, due to the complex macro - environment and changes in the supply - demand relationship in the industrial chain, the copper price has a risk of falling from high levels. For zinc, considering the supply recovery in June and the weakening demand, the zinc price is expected to decline, and short - selling is recommended. For nickel and stainless - steel, affected by geopolitical risks and policy changes, the prices are expected to be weak and volatile [9][93][209] 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and the prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel. It also provides their daily, weekly, and annual price changes [6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: The Sino - US economic and trade negotiations had a general market response. The domestic social financing and credit data improved slightly in May, but the demand - side expectations need to be further improved. The US inflation continued to decline, but the expectation of interest - rate cuts did not rise significantly [9] - **Raw Material End**: The spot processing fee of copper ore decreased slightly, and the copper ore supply remained tight. The domestic copper ore port inventory increased. The production plan of Kamoa - Kakula Copper Mine was reduced due to the flooding incident [9] - **Smelting End**: The loss of smelters using spot copper ore remained around 2950 yuan/ton, while those using long - term contracts turned from near - break - even to a profit of 40 yuan/ton. The domestic copper production in May increased and is expected to remain high in June [9] - **Demand End**: With the arrival of the off - season in May and the high copper price, the domestic copper product operating rate declined slightly [9] - **Inventory**: The domestic copper social inventory decreased slightly, the US copper inventory increased, and the LME copper inventory decreased. The global visible copper inventory decreased slightly [9] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The copper price is expected to be weak and volatile. The macro - market sentiment is complex, and the industrial support is weakening, so there is a risk of the copper price falling from high levels [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level volatility for single - side trading and positive spread arbitrage for Shanghai copper. Attention should be paid to the US tariff policy, copper inventory, and the mid - year negotiation of copper ore processing fees [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: The Middle - East conflict escalated, and the US inflation data cooled down, increasing the expectation of two interest - rate cuts by the Fed this year [93] - **Raw Material End**: The domestic processing fee remained unchanged, and the import processing fee increased. The zinc concentrate port inventory decreased, but the raw material supply is expected to be stable and abundant in the future [93] - **Smelting End**: Some previously shut - down smelters in Henan resumed production last week, and more are expected to resume in June. The production is expected to increase by more than 20,000 tons in June but may decline in July due to some planned shutdowns. The inflow of imported goods has an impact on the spot premium [93] - **Demand End**: The off - season and high - temperature weather in the South have suppressed terminal demand. The export demand is uncertain due to tariff disturbances [93] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased again. As of June 12, it was 7.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from last Thursday. The inventory turning point may become clear in mid - to late June [93] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The zinc price is expected to decline, and short - selling is recommended [93] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - selling for single - side trading and waiting for opportunities for arbitrage. Attention should be paid to macro - risks and the uncertainty of smelter shutdowns [93] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: The Israel - Iran conflict intensified, increasing market risk aversion. The US announced tariffs on steel - made household appliances, which may affect the terminal demand for nickel and stainless steel. The domestic social financing growth in May was stable, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [209] - **Raw Material End**: The Philippines removed the ban on nickel ore exports, which weakened the market sentiment in the short - term. The Indonesian nickel ore premium remained stable, but the demand for nickel ore procurement may weaken due to the increase in the average inventory of pyrometallurgical smelters. The domestic port inventory decreased slightly due to the impact of rainfall in the Philippines [209] - **Smelting End**: The production of pure nickel decreased slightly in May. The price of nickel iron decreased, and the supply pressure remained. The MHP coefficient was stable, but some nickel sulfate enterprises still have the expectation of production cuts. In the long - term, the new production capacity of primary nickel in Indonesia is expected to continue to be released [209] - **Demand End**: The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, with weak spot transactions. The production of some steel mills is expected to decrease slightly in June. The new - energy vehicle production and sales remained high, but the raw material inventory of precursors has accumulated [209] - **Inventory**: The inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level. As of Friday, the LME nickel inventory was 197,500 tons (- 1.3%), and the SHFE nickel inventory was 25,600 tons (+ 0.3%) [209] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The nickel price is expected to be weak and volatile. In the long - term, there is still pressure of oversupply for primary nickel. Attention should be paid to the cost range of electrowinning nickel and resource - country policies [209] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term short - selling for single - side trading and waiting for opportunities for arbitrage. Attention should be paid to nickel - related policies in resource - rich countries and global macro - disturbances [209]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-06-16 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 目录 01 螺纹钢 02 焦煤焦炭 震 荡 区 间 ， 等 待 新 驱 动 盘 面 震 荡 运 行 ， 现 货 延 续 弱 势 03 铁矿石 宏 观 局 势 推 动 短 期 波 动 加 剧 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 螺纹钢 螺纹钢：震荡区间，等待新驱动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 铁水产量延续小幅回落的方向，幅度依旧比较弱，但本周钢联五材产量数据降得比较多，主要是电炉产量下降贡献比较大，主要原因还是在于长流 | | 供给 | 偏空 | 程钢厂尚可 ...