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玉米系数据日报-20251106
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 05:12
Group 1: Report General Information - The report is titled "Corn System Data Daily" and is from the Agricultural Products Research Center of ITC Futures Research Institute, written by Huang Xianglan on November 6, 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Market Data Summary Spot Market - Corn spot prices in various regions show different trends. For example, the price in Henan - Zhengzhou increased by 20 yuan to 2220 yuan, while the price in Jilin - Changchun decreased by 10 yuan to 2060 yuan. Corn starch spot prices in Jilin remained at 2550 yuan, and wheat spot prices in Anhui remained at 2517 yuan [5] Futures Market - The closing price of the corn main contract was 2115 yuan, down 5 yuan; the closing price of the corn starch main contract was 2420 yuan, up 8 yuan. The closing price of US corn was 430.75 cents per bushel, with an estimated profit of 96.03 yuan per ton for imported US corn [5] Spread and Inventory Data - The spread between starch and corn (main continuous) was 305, and the spread between starch and corn (Jilin spot average) was 490. North Port corn inventory was 852 thousand tons, and Guangdong Port's domestic and foreign trade corn inventories were 193 thousand tons and 194 thousand tons respectively. Deep - processing corn inventories in the Northeast and North China were 1.926 million tons and 685 thousand tons respectively [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Northeast production areas face concentrated supply pressure, and there is also pressure to store poor - quality damp grain in North China. The 2025/2026 planting cost continues to decline, the sown area is stable or slightly decreasing, the yield per unit is good, and there is an overall expectation of a bumper harvest. Imported grain supply is shrinking due to policy restrictions [5] Demand - In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies may control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. Feed enterprises have a rigid demand for replenishing inventory, and deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs, but they tend to lower prices for low - quality grain [5] Group 4: Inventory Situation - Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at North Ports is slow, and the corn inventory at South Ports has rebounded from a low level. With the addition of new - season corn, ports are expected to be in an inventory - accumulation stage. Feed enterprise inventories are at a low level, and deep - processing corn inventories are seasonally accumulating [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - In the short - term, North Port prices are relatively firm, but both futures and spot prices will face selling pressure tests later. The market is expected to show a volatile bottom - building trend. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of traders' grain purchases and policy changes [6]
棉系数据日报-20251106
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 05:11
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market has support below and pressure above in the near term. There is continuous pressure from new cotton supply, but yarn mills are actively replenishing their inventories. In the long term, policies and weather are the key factors. The strategies are to conduct reverse arbitrage on the January - May spread when prices are high and to layout long positions for distant - month contracts when prices are low [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Data Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on November 5 was 13615, up 80 (0.59%) from November 4; CF05 was 13620, up 65 (0.48%); CF01 - 05 was - 5, up 15 from the previous day [3] Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang on November 5, the price was 14627, down 13 (-0.09%); in Henan it was 14856, down 34 (-0.23%); in Shandong it was 14873, unchanged (0.00%); Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1012, down 93 [3] Domestic Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic yarn futures CY on November 5 was 19820, up 25 (0.13%); domestic yarn spot C32S price index was 20520, unchanged (0.00%) [3] US Cotton Spot - CT (USD/磅) was unchanged at 65.15; the arrival price was 75.20, down 0.3 (-0.40%); 1% quota pick - up price was 13158, down 51 (-0.39%); sliding - scale duty pick - up price was 14069, down 29 (-0.21%) [3] Spread Data - The yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6205, down 55; the yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 911, up 22 [3] Other Data - The domestic - foreign spread (spot) was 1715, up 51 [4]
白糖数据日报-20251106
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 03:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Near the new crops in the Northern Hemisphere and the domestic cane sugar listing, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be mainly volatile and weak. The large current import volume of raw sugar and the gradually released pressure of imported sugar arriving at ports, with an import cost of 5300 - 5400, suppress the futures market. The initial crushing of sugar mills in Yunnan occurred two days ago, and Guangxi sugar mills are expected to start centralized crushing in mid - to late November, which may create new selling pressure. However, as the current futures market is close to the domestic sugar - making cost, the futures market is expected to show a resistant decline before the domestic new sugar is launched [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Domestic Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, on November 5, 2025, the price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5720 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan it was 5520 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; and in Rizhao, Shandong it was 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. Futures Market - The price of SR01 was 5441 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; SR05 was 5393 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; and the spread between SR01 and SR05 was 48, down 2 [4]. Exchange Rate and International Market - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1503, up 0.0071; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004. The price of the ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.21, unchanged; the price of the London white sugar main contract was 573, up 3; the price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 64.35, unchanged [4].
纸浆数据日报-20251106
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 03:21
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 needle pulp futures. The futures price may be priced based on the price of Russian needle pulp and high - quality softwood pulp. Maintain the 12 - 1 reverse spread strategy [10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On November 5, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2605 were 5360, 4886, and 5374 respectively, with day - on - day increases of 1.36%, 0.29%, and 1.09% and week - on - week increases of 2.25%, 1.20%, and 1.86% respectively. The spot prices of softwood pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and hardwood pulp Goldfish were 5500, 5100, and 4250 respectively, with no day - on - day or week - on - week changes [5] Outer - Disk Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 680, 530, and 590 US dollars respectively. The outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.86% month - on - month, while that of Brazilian Goldfish increased by 3.92%. The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5559, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish increasing by 3.87% month - on - month [5] Supply - Side Data - In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a 12.54% increase from August, and the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a 7.79% increase from August. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 increased by 4.50% month - on - month. The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed little change in the period from September 4 to October 30, 2025 [5] Inventory Data - As of October 30, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 206.1 tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, showing a narrow - range inventory accumulation trend. The futures delivery warehouse inventory decreased slightly during the period from September 4 to October 30, 2025 [5][10] Demand - Side Data - The production of finished paper such as double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed little change from September 4 to October 30, 2025. White cardboard showed a significant increase in both volume and price, and cultural paper has issued frequent price increase letters, but whether the price increase can be implemented remains to be observed, and overall demand is still weak [5][10] Valuation Data - On November 5, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle pulp was 214 with a quantile level of 0.902, and the basis of Silver Star pulp was 614 with a quantile level of 0.868. The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.513, and that of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.557 [5]
原油&燃料油数据日报-20251105
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 07:36
| | | 客 服 热 线 | 国际油价震荡下跌。当前地缘局势预计宏观驱动逐步减弱,油价暂时重回 | | | 基本面驱动逻辑。宏观方面,中美领导人会晤,两国关税贸易政策取得部分成 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 果,但是整体或不及市场预期,因此市场情绪降温,暂时无明显驱动。原油自 | | | | | | | 身供需来仍处于宽松格局,供给端方面,在11月0PEC+会议上,OPEC+计划在12 | | | | | | | 月小幅增产13.7万桶/日,这是连续第三个月实施该增幅,该决策旨在恢复市场 | 県油 份额,但可能加剧市场供应过剩担忧。此外在12月之后,OPEC+还决定在2026 | | | | | | 年1月、2月和3月暂停增产。需求端方面,9月开始原油消费量逐渐下滑,其中 | | | | | | | 美国原油消费旺季结束的标志是9月初的劳工节,全球原油淡季消费量较旺季。 | | | | | | | 下滑100万~300万桶/日。在供给宽松、需求持续走弱及地缘风险消退的影响 | | | | | | | 下,长期油价仍将维持偏弱表现,短期或继续震荡表 ...
工业硅数据日报-20251105
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 06:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon is stable while demand is decreasing. During the dry season, the cost will rise slightly, and silicon prices may fluctuate. The supply side shows a slowdown in the resumption of production in the northwest region and successive production cuts in the southwest region. On the demand side, polysilicon will cut production during the dry season in November. In terms of inventory, the reduction of warehouse receipts drives the overall inventory decline [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: SI2511 closed at 8520 with a -1.73% change, SI2512 at 8920 (-2.25%), SI2601 at 8885 (-2.31%), SI2602 at 8865 (-2.53%), and SI2603 at 8875 (-2.37%) [2]. - **Open Interest**: SI2511 had an open interest of 2977, SI2512 had 70872, SI2601 had 242153, SI2602 had 37735, and SI2603 had 15858 [2]. Spot Market - **Regional Prices**: In the East China region, 553 (non - oxygenated) was priced at 9300, 553 (hydrogenated) at 9450, 421 at 9700, 441 at 9650, and 3303 at 10500. In Huangpu Port, 553 (oxygenated) was 9500 and 421 was 9950. In Tianjin Port, 553 (oxygenated) was 9350 and 421 was 9800. In Kunming, 553 (hydrogenated) was 9600, and in Sichuan, 421 was 9750. All prices had no change [2]. - **Related Product Prices**: DMC price was 11150, 107 glue was 11500, polysilicon (compact material, per kilogram) was 51, and the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21400 [2]. Price Spreads - **Futures Spreads**: The spread between si2511 - si2512 was -400 with a change of 40, and si2512 - si2601 was 35 with a change of 10 [2]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spread between 421 spot and 553 oxygenated spot was 250. The basis (East China 553 spot - main contract) was 565 with a change of 255 [2]. Warehouse and Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Information**: Various warehouses such as Zhongchu Wusong, Zhongchu Dachang, etc., had different capacities, and most had an ascension and rebate standard of 0. The total capacity was 27.55 tons. The total number of warehouse receipts decreased from 36997 to 36666, a decrease of 331 [2].
商品期权数据日报-20251105
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 05:52
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Options Data Daily Report [4] - Date: November 5, 2025 [5] - Data Sources: Wind, Guomao Futures Research Institute [7] Group 2: Underlying Asset Information Price and Daily Fluctuation - Furnace Aluminum: Price at 21,465, down 0.07%, with a daily fluctuation of 17.97% [5] - Shanghai Copper: Price at 85,740, down 1.54%, with a daily fluctuation of 36.69% [5] - Shanghai Zinc: Price at 22,670, up 0.82%, with a daily fluctuation of 17.35% [5] - Shanghai Gold: Price at 915.58, down 0.50%, with a daily fluctuation of 24.17% [5] - Rubber: Price at 14,875, down 1.42%, with a daily fluctuation of 33.50% [5] - Sugar: Price at 5,481, up 0.04%, with a daily fluctuation of 9.94% [5] - Corn: Price at 2,135, down 0.05%, with a daily fluctuation of 9.75% [5] - Rapeseed Meal: Price at 2,497, up 1.55%, with a daily fluctuation of 19.98% [5] - Soybean Meal: Price at 3,015, down 0.69%, with a daily fluctuation of 18.59% [5] - Palm Oil: Price at 8,616, down 0.85%, with a daily fluctuation of 26.06% [5] - Zhengzhou Cotton: Price at 13,535, down 0.40%, with a daily fluctuation of 12.45% [5] - Polypropylene: Price at 6,560, down 0.65%, with a daily fluctuation of 11.00% [5] - LPG: Price at 4,243, down 1.44%, with a daily fluctuation of 27.20% [5] - PTA: Price at 4,604, down 0.04%, with a daily fluctuation of 18.21% [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Price at 3,901, down 2.48%, with a daily fluctuation of 29.18% [5] - Styrene: Price at 6,354, down 1.99%, with a daily fluctuation of 34.17% [5] - Urea: Price at 1,630, up 0.80%, with a daily fluctuation of 22.79% [5] - Apple: Price at 8,861, down 2.63%, with a daily fluctuation of 54.89% [5] - Manganese Silicon: Price at 5,754, down 0.72%, with a daily fluctuation of 13.37% [5] - Soda Ash: Price at 1,189, down 1.74%, with a daily fluctuation of 21.59% [5] - Short Fiber: Price at 6,190, down 0.26%, with a daily fluctuation of 15.07% [5] - Ferrosilicon: Price at 5,510, down 0.29%, with a daily fluctuation of 22.25% [5] - Lithium Carbonate: Price at 78,560, down 4.34%, with a daily fluctuation of 109.72% [5] - Synthetic Rubber: Price at 10,205, down 2.30%, with a daily fluctuation of 31.45% [5] - p-Xylene: Price at 6,660, down 0.03%, with a daily fluctuation of 19.38% [5] - Glass: Price at 1,105, up 0.18%, with a daily fluctuation of 39.71% [5] - Propylene: Price at 6,026, down 1.16%, with a daily fluctuation of 21.10% [5] - Polysilicon: Price at 53,715, down 3.91%, with a daily fluctuation of 75.10% [6] Historical Volatility - The report provides historical volatility data (HV20, HV40, HV60, HV120) for various underlying assets such as furnace aluminum, Shanghai copper, etc [5] Group 3: Implied Volatility 主力平值IV - Implied volatility data for various underlying assets including polysilicon (e.g., 31%, 50%), propylene (e.g., 13%, 16%), etc [10] 主力平值IV分位值 - The report presents the percentile values of the implied volatility of the underlying assets such as 82%, 63%, etc [13] Group 4: Historical Trends - The report shows historical trends of the closing price, implied volatility, and HV60 for some underlying assets like industrial silicon, iron ore, soybean oil, etc [12]
有色金属数据日报-20251105
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 05:48
| 工G国留留信 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 色金属数据目报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015300 从业资格号:F3043701 | 国贸期货研究员 | 方言詞 | 2025/11/05 | 投资咨询号:Z0015788 从业资格号:F3040017 | 有色金属研究中心 谢灵 | | | | | | | | | | | 价格指标 | 变化(%) | 变化 (%) | 15:00期货价格 | 现货价格 | 图表 | 10872. 5 | -0. 3 | -0. 27 | 10855. 5 | 铜 | LME有色金属期货库存(吨) | | | | | 0.8 | 锌 | 3190 | 0. 63 | 3090 | 1500000 | LME | 品 | -0. 25 | 1995 | 2893 ...
合成橡胶数据日报-20251105
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 05:02
Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on synthetic rubber, focusing on the domestic butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber markets [2][3] Key Points Market Conditions - **Domestic Butadiene Market**: On November 4, the domestic butadiene market continued its downward trend. The supply was abundant, and the downstream rigid demand couldn't provide effective support. The price in Shandong Luzhong area was around 7000 - 7100 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 6600 yuan/ton [3] - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Market**: The capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.50%, a decrease of 2.79 percentage points from the previous working day. The theoretical production profit of cis - butadiene rubber increased significantly to 893 yuan/ton [3] Price Changes - **Butadiene**: The price of Sinopec East China butadiene decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 6900 yuan/ton [3] - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber**: The ex - factory price of Sinopec Chemical Sales cis - butadiene rubber remained stable at 10500 yuan/ton [3] Market Expectations - Most industry players expect the cost of cis - butadiene rubber to continue to decline due to the expected increase in butadiene supply and low - price transactions of South Korean butadiene resources. The market generally expects the supply price of Sinopec and PetroChina's cis - butadiene rubber to be further reduced [3] Strategy - **Single - side**: The BR contract is expected to consolidate [3] - **Arbitrage**: After the spread widens again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3]
尿素数据日报-20251105
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 03:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Report's Core View - The report indicates that although urea exports are progressing, the domestic supply - demand situation remains loose, and the market is expected to continue its downward trend in the near term. It also suggests a neutral view on the overall market, with macro and cost factors being positive, while weak domestic demand is negative [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The prices of coking coal, anthracite small pieces remained unchanged at 465.00 and 920.00 respectively, while the price of natural gas decreased by 100.00 to 4200.00 [1]. Price - The prices in most regions, such as Henan, Hebei, and Anhui, remained stable. Shandong's price increased by 10.00 to 1560.00. International prices including China FOB, Middle East FOB, etc., also remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory all remained unchanged at 155.43, 11.00, and 14500.00 respectively [1]. Supply - Daily production, overall开工率, coal - based and gas - based开工率, and待发订单 all remained unchanged, with开工率 at 80.69, coal - based at 82.61, and gas - based at 72.79 [1]. Demand - The开工率 of compound fertilizers, melamine, and formaldehyde remained unchanged at 31.04, 49.98, and 40.74 respectively [1]. Profit - The profits of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and natural gas remained unchanged at - 317.00, 104.00, and - 292.00 respectively [1]. Related Products - The prices of liquid ammonia and compound fertilizers remained unchanged at 2000.00 and 2450.00 respectively. The prices of melamine and methanol decreased by 30.00 and 20.00 to 5020.00 and 2030.00 respectively [1]. Futures - The结算价 increased by 8.00 to 1625.00, the基差 increased by 3.00 to - 60.00, the涨跌幅 was 0.49, the成交量 decreased by 19168.00 to 140396.00, the持仓量 increased by 2518.00 to 272271.00, and the仓車量 increased by 2445.00 to 3900.00 [1].