Group 1: Report Core View - The domestic rumor of customs control on soybean imports is bullish for near - term contracts and positive spreads. Attention should be paid to customs policy dynamics. US soybean exports are weak, there is no obvious weather - driven speculation in South America, and Brazilian premiums are expected to face pressure later. M05 is expected to be relatively weak, with an overall expectation of near - term strength and far - term weakness [7][8] - In terms of supply, the predicted 25/26 Brazilian new - crop soybean production will reach 177.6 million tons. As of December 5th, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 90.3%. As of December 3rd, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 4.7%. There are no obvious short - term weather problems. There are concerns about domestic soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year due to rumored customs delays, and domestic imported soybeans have started to be auctioned [7] - In terms of demand, short - term high livestock and poultry inventories support feed demand, but current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies may affect long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, and recent downstream transactions are normal with good提货 performance [7][8] - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, the pace of soybean meal inventory reduction is slow, and the pressure of spot supply is still high. It is expected that inventory will be reduced more quickly from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has increased this week [7][8] Group 2: Data Summary Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis, in Dalian it is 390 (up 10), in Rizhao 330 (up 10), in Tianjin 350 (up 10), in Zhangjiagang 340 (down 500), in Dongguan 290 (down 10), in Zhanjiang 310 (down 30), and in Fangcheng 310 (down 10). The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is 76 (down 32) [4] Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal (factory) is 300, and the spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal on the main contract is 399 (down 9) [5] Other Data - The exchange rate of US dollars to RMB is 6.9815 (unchanged), the Brazilian soybean CNF premium is 150 (cents per bushel), and the Brazilian soybean crushing margin on the futures market is 90 yuan per ton [5] - As of relevant dates, Brazilian soybean sowing rate is 90.3%, and Argentine soybean sowing progress is 4.7% [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The European container shipping market shows a trend of "simultaneous strengthening of spot and futures prices". The freight rate has rebounded for multiple consecutive weeks, with both spot and futures prices rising steadily. Shipping companies are strongly willing to control cabin space and support prices. The demand side benefits from pre - Spring Festival stocking and restocking needs, leading to an improvement in cabin loading rates. On the supply side, empty sailings have decreased, and effective capacity has tightened. The Red Sea situation has marginally eased, with some shipping companies testing re - entry into the market, but overall caution remains. In the short term, the freight rate may peak in early January, and the market faces adjustment pressure. Future attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the progress of re - entry into the market [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rate**: It is a positive factor. In the Gemini Alliance, MSK's freight rate in the second week of January rose to $2540/FEU, a $40 increase compared to the opening, with the overall offline loading rate rising; HPL - SPOT's price in the first half of January dropped from $3535/FEU by $500 to $3035/FEU, and there is an expectation of a price increase back to $3535/FEU in the second half of January. In the OCEAN Alliance, OOCL's freight rate in the first half of January remained flat compared to the previous period, at $3180 - 3230/FEU, and CMA's freight rate rose slightly from $3245/FEU to $3293/FEU. In the MSC&PA Alliance, ONE has an online price increase expectation of $2835/FEU in the second half of January, consistent with the announced increase in the first half. The offline FAK quote in the first half of January was $2800/FEU, a $400 increase compared to the end of December, and YML's offline quote is $2800/FEU, with special prices available for increased volume [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: They are neutral. Houthi armed leaders warned of an "inevitable" new round of conflict with Israel, and criticized Arab countries seeking normalization of relations with Israel. Ukrainian President Zelensky hopes to reach a framework agreement to end the war when meeting with US President Trump, and is willing to submit a cease - fire plan to a referendum if Russia agrees to at least 60 days of cease - fire. US President Trump plans to announce multiple major measures regarding the Gaza issue in early January, but the next step depends on his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu [3] - **Capacity Supply**: It is neutral. The average weekly capacity deployment in October was 245,000 TEU, 265,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [3] - **Demand**: It is a positive factor. At the end of 2025, the demand for European container shipping remained strong, showing a super - seasonal recovery. Driven by the extended pre - Spring Festival stocking window in 2026 and the release of European importers' restocking needs, the booking volume continued to grow, and the fleet loading rate remained high. Coupled with the pre - adjustment of the supply chain under geopolitical situations, the enthusiasm of shippers to ship goods increased, supporting the continuous rise of freight rates [3] - **Investment View**: It is "oscillating". The trading strategy is to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and international macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - **Spot Market**: The report presents the price trends of European line indices, US - West line indices, and US - East line indices from 2023 to 2025 through charts, but no specific data analysis is provided [6] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: The report shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships of different loading capacities from 2015 to 2025 through multiple charts, including feeder container ships, intermediate container ships, and large - capacity container ships [11] - **Delivery Volume**: The delivery volume and delivery volume by loading capacity of container ships from 2020 to 2025 are presented, including different types of container ships such as feeder and post - Panamax [14] - **Demolition Volume**: The demolition volume and demolition volume by loading capacity of container ships from 2020 to 2025 are shown, covering various container ship types [15] - **Future Delivery**: The future delivery volume of container ships from 2023 to 2029 is presented, with breakdowns by different time periods and loading capacities [20] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: The ship - breaking prices of container ships of different loading capacities from 2019 to 2025 are presented, along with the new - building price index and year - on - year change of container ships [27] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: The second - hand ship price index and the second - hand ship prices of container ships of different loading capacities and ages from 2015 to 2025 are presented [33] - **Existing Capacity of Container Ships**: The existing capacity, capacity by loading capacity, proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, average age, and average age at ship - breaking of container ships are presented through multiple charts, showing the development and status of the container ship fleet from 2015 to 2025 [42] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: The total capacity deployment, PA + MSC capacity deployment, GEMINI capacity deployment, OCEAN capacity deployment, and MSC capacity deployment from week 13 to week 28 are presented through charts [57] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: The situation of container ships with installed and being - installed desulfurization towers, including the capacity in thousands of TEU, the number of ships, and the proportion, is presented, along with the average age and duration of the retrofit and the average speed of container ships [67] - **Idle Capacity**: The idle capacity, idle capacity by loading capacity, proportion of idle capacity, and the situation of hot - idle and desulfurization - tower - retrofitted container ships are presented through multiple charts [75]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the polyester industry is "oscillating", with an expected upward trend mainly driven by the supply side [3] Core View of the Report - The polyester market is expected to run strongly, influenced by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies. The PX market is supported by the expectation of supply tightening in Q1 2026, and the polyester load remains high due to new device production. However, there are also some negative factors, such as the weakening of some product profits [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of supply tightening in Q1 2026. The PX - naphtha spread has expanded to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has risen to $244, encouraging PX producers to actively purchase MX. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November [3] - **Demand**: The commissioning of new polyester devices keeps the polyester load at a high level, with high PTA consumption. The market's willingness to stockpile has increased, and the basis has strengthened rapidly [3] - **Inventory**: The PTA port inventory has decreased by 60,000 tons, and mainstream polyester factories are selling spot goods [3] - **Basis**: The PTA basis has continued to strengthen, and PTA profits have been significantly repaired [3] - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha is $360, and the PTA processing fee has expanded to a low level of about 360 yuan [3] - **Valuation**: The PTA price has significantly rebounded, exceeding 5,000 yuan. The reforming unit profit has recovered, and the load of overseas PX units has increased [3] - **Macro Policy**: The National Conference on Industry and Information Technology emphasized improving industry governance efficiency, accelerating the formulation and implementation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" series of plans in the industrial and information technology fields, and strengthening the coordination of industry with fiscal, tax, and financial policies [3] - **Investment View**: Driven by the supply side, it is expected to be mainly strong, showing an "oscillating" trend [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see [3] PART TWO: Overview of Oil Product Fundamentals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price remains weak [5] - **Gasoline**: In the US, gasoline inventories are accumulating, and demand is seasonally weakening. Gasoline cracking profits have slightly declined. The global crude oil and aromatic raw material markets are under pressure. European gasoline prices have weakened rapidly since early December, and the Nigerian Dangote refinery's upcoming shutdown may provide export opportunities for European gasoline and reformate rich in aromatics [9][14][29] PART THREE: Overview of Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals - **Aromatic Hydrocarbons - Overall Situation**: The overall crude oil and petrochemical raw material market is weak, and refining profits have turned negative again. The reformate market remains structurally tight, and South Korean refineries' operating rates have not significantly recovered [49] - **PX**: The PX supply has increased, but the expectation is strong. The PX - naphtha spread has expanded to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has risen to $244, driving PX producers to purchase MX. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the polyester load remains high [33][72] - **MX**: The overseas MX market is weakening, affected by weak energy prices and seasonal decline in gasoline demand. The MX - naphtha spread has expanded to $128, and the PX - MX spread has risen to $240. The market expects an oversupply of Asian MX in 2026 [56][63] - **Toluene**: The toluene price has declined, and the disproportionation profit has expanded [57] - **Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending**: The aromatic hydrocarbon blending price spread has shrunk, and the gasoline reforming and aromatic hydrocarbon reforming profits have slightly strengthened [64][72] PART FOUR: Overview of Polyester Fundamentals - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas ethylene glycol device maintenance plans have increased. The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China remains at 750,000 tons. With the continuous decline of coal prices and the commissioning of new devices, the supply pressure is increasing. The return of coal - based ethylene glycol devices exerts great pressure on the market. Policy changes may support the ethylene glycol price [87] - **Gasoline**: Asian gasoline profits remain strong [89] - **Polyester**: The polyester continues to maintain a high load, but demand is gradually weakening. The commodity sentiment is high, and policy changes may affect the polyester industry [98][108]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal market is in a state of shock and stability, waiting for new drivers. The steel market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with potential iron - water production stabilization in January. The coking coal and coke market is still weak, with increased game for the fourth round of price cuts. The iron ore market has a stable iron - water production and rising port inventory, and the price range is expected to be limited [3][5][68][119] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: Iron - water production decline narrows, with a weekly increase of 0.03 to 226.58wt. Scrap steel daily consumption decreases slightly. Steel mill production profits improve slightly in December compared to November. There may be some resumptions of production in January, but the scale will not be large [5] - **Demand**: From an industrial data perspective, the supply - demand structure is weak. From a market perception perspective, speculative demand is light. After January, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils improves slightly, medium - and cold - rolled plates are stable, and building material demand is weaker than the same period [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products continues to decline, mainly due to the stable decline in steel production. The inventory - to - sales ratio of rebar and wire rod is stable, hot - rolled coils improve, and medium - and cold - rolled plates remain stable. The inventory of plate products is slow to decline [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of hot - rolled coils shrinks, and that of rebar remains the same. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 122; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 13, a weekly decrease of 14 [5] - **Profit**: Steel mill profits rise slightly, but the profitability is still low. The profitability rate of steel mills is 37.23%, a weekly increase of 1.3% [5] - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar, suitable for rolling cash - and - carry arbitrage. The industrial relative valuation is neutral [5] - **Macro and Risk Preference**: Commodities have shown good performance recently. The black metal market has signs of stabilization [5] - **Investment View**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. Unilateral trading can follow a shock - based approach. After January, the market capital is expected to be more abundant, and the cash - and - carry arbitrage of hot - rolled coils can be rolled [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Use a range - based approach. Arbitrage: Consider widening the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar when it is below 150. Cash - and - carry: Roll the cash - and - carry arbitrage of hot - rolled coils [5] 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The steel market has weak supply and demand, which is unfavorable to furnace materials. However, the weakening trend slows down, and inventory is still being depleted. The profitability rate of steel mills rises, and iron - water production shows signs of stabilization [68] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Some coal mines reduce production after completing their annual plans in mid - December. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high, and port inventory exceeds 3.8 million tons. Seaborne coal prices continue to rise, and the price gap between domestic and foreign markets widens [68] - **Coke Supply**: Coking production is stable, and profits are around the break - even point. There is still a game for the fourth round of price cuts [68] - **Inventory**: All links of coking coal and coke have inventory accumulation. Downstream procurement is cautious [68] - **Basis/Spread**: The third - round price increase of coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation for the fourth round. The Mongolian coal basis cost is around 1100 [68] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 37.23% (a weekly increase of 1.30%), and coking profit is - 18 (a weekly decrease of 34) [68] - **Summary**: The black metal sector is in shock, and coking coal and coke are still weak. The market is expected to be in shock, and the willingness of funds to participate is weak. Pay attention to the resumption of production of domestic coal mines in January [68] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Wait and see. Arbitrage: Wait and see [68] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The shipping volume rebounds by 39.5 tons per day to 5.13 million tons per day. The arrival volume in China rebounds by 18,000 tons per day [119] - **Demand**: Steel mill iron - water production remains stable, and the profitability ratio rises slightly. According to the maintenance plan, iron - water production is expected to be stable, with a demand for increase in January [119] - **Inventory**: The daily average port - clearing volume of 47 ports decreases slightly, but the arrival pressure is large, and port inventory rises by 1.1406 million tons, hitting a new high for the year [119] - **Profit**: Steel mill profits are at a low level [119] - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral [119] - **Summary**: Iron - water production shows signs of bottoming out and stabilizing. Under the influence of supply and demand, port inventory will continue to rise, and the upward pressure on price is obvious. The price range is expected to be limited [119] - **Investment View**: Neutral [119] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Wait and see. Arbitrage: Wait and see [119]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market's "slow bull" pattern is entering the second half. Policy support, marginal improvement in inflation, and the role of Central Huijin are expected to boost the stock index in 2026. For futures traders, the discount structure of index futures can be used to enhance the winning rate of long strategies [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: The single - month industrial enterprise profit in November declined, with intensified industry profit differentiation. From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased slightly by 0.1% year - on - year, but the single - month profit in November decreased by 13.1% year - on - year. Some industries had profit growth, while others declined [4] - **Macro Policy**: On December 26, the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund was officially launched, funded by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, with 100 billion yuan from the central government and encouraging social capital participation at the regional and sub - fund levels [4] - **Liquidity**: Last week, the market trading volume increased significantly, and the net inflow of stock - type and cross - border ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 38.069 billion yuan, with 49.3 billion yuan flowing into CSI A500 - related ETFs [4] - **Trading Strategy**: It is advisable to go long on a single - side basis, and attention should be paid to overseas geopolitical factors [4] 2. Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.95% to 4657.2; the SSE 50 rose 1.37% to 3045.4; the CSI 500 rose 4.03% to 7458.8; the CSI 1000 rose 3.76% to 7605.5 [6] - **Industry Index**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, non - ferrous metals (6.4%), national defense and military industry (6%), power equipment (5.4%), electronics (5%), and building materials (4.6%) led the gains, while social services (-1.1%), banks (-1%), food and beverages (-0.6%), media (-0.2%), and pharmaceutical biology (-0.2%) led the losses [10] - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures decreased by 34.24%, 39.30%, 25.37%, and 27.04% respectively, while the open interests increased by 7.35%, 9.34%, 15.82%, and 7.51% respectively [12] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The spread of CSI 300 - SSE 50 is at the 94.9% historical quantile level; the spread of CSI 1000 - CSI 500 is at the 31.4% historical quantile level; the ratio of CSI 300/CSI 1000 is at the 35.6% historical quantile level; the ratio of SSE 50/CSI 1000 is at the 30.5% historical quantile level [20] 3. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Funding and Macro - Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 422.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 34.8 billion yuan. Next week, 622.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [26] - **Market Trading Volume and Margin Trading**: As of December 25, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2.53748 trillion yuan, an increase of 41.41 billion yuan from the previous week. The ratio of margin trading purchases to the total market trading volume was 12.6%, at the 98.7% quantile level in the past decade [32] 4. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **China's Macro Indicators**: In November 2025, GDP at constant prices was 0.0, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year - on - year, fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year in cumulative terms, and real estate investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year [35] - **Corporate Profitability**: The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to the parent of major broad - based indices and Shenwan primary industry indices showed different trends, and the ROE (TTM) also varied [50][51] 5. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driven - **Macro Policy**: The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, and many regions have optimized real - estate policies [55][56][64] 6. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In November, the US manufacturing PMI was 48.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The unemployment rate was 4.6%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 64,000 [66][70] - **Trump's Policies**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have led to trade frictions between the United States and many countries, including China [72][74][76] 7. Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation**: As of December 26, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.1 times, 11.8 times, 33.8 times, and 46.4 times respectively, at the 82%, 85.1%, 74.9%, and 66.9% quantile levels since October 2014 [80] - **Sector Valuation**: Different sectors have different price - to - earnings ratios and price - to - book ratios, and their historical quantile levels also vary [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term: Due to relatively stable and loose capital expectations, short - term bonds may be more stable, while long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may fluctuate more. The pattern of bonds having a ceiling and a floor is difficult to break, and the ten - year spot bond yield may remain in the range of 1.75% - 1.85%. Allocate funds to focus on medium - and short - term maturities and high - grade credit bonds, and trading funds can focus on band trading opportunities for ultra - long - term maturities [9]. - Medium - and long - term: Insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. Deflation is likely to continue, which is favorable for bond futures. The coordinated increase of monetary and fiscal policies and the low - interest - rate environment make it difficult for bond yields to rise significantly [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Market performance: Last week, the treasury bond futures market showed a volatile pattern of first falling and then rising. The significant decline of 30 - year treasury bond futures at the beginning of the week was due to the concentrated selling of trading volumes. The central bank's net liquidity injection ensured the stability of short - term funds in the inter - bank market, which was the basis for the market sentiment to pick up later in the week. Market rumors also promoted the short - term repair of treasury bond futures. The linkage effect between the bond market and other markets weakened, and the performance of bond futures was stronger than expected [5]. - Performance details: Different treasury bond futures contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, TL2603 had a closing price of 112.960 and a weekly increase of 0.27%, with a trading volume of 55,995,300 and a decrease of 9,814,400 in trading volume compared to the previous week [6]. - Investment suggestions: For allocation funds, focus on medium - and short - term maturities and high - grade credit bonds; for trading funds, pay attention to band trading opportunities for ultra - long - term maturities [9]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking The report presents multiple charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), deposit - type pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, and various bond - related interest rates, but no specific analysis text is provided [12][14][15]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking The report shows data on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, internal rate of return (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year contracts, but no specific analysis text is provided [43][50][58][64].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 市场情绪高涨，纯苯苯乙烯低位等待 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-29 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 关于苯乙烯经济学，苯乙烯-苯价差回升至157美元、苯乙烯-石脑油价差达273美元，亚洲生产商整体仍处于亏损状态。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 截至2025年12月22日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：27.3万吨，较上期库存26万吨上升1.3万吨，环比增加5%；较去年同期库存16.20万吨累库11.1万 吨，同比上升68.52%。12月15日-12月21日，不完全统计到货约3.3万吨，提货约2万吨。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 截至2025年12月22日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总量：13.93万吨，较上周期增0.46万吨，幅度+3.41%。商品量库存在 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The European container shipping market shows a "synchronous strengthening of spot and futures" trend. Freight rates have rebounded for multiple weeks, with both spot and futures prices rising steadily. Shipping companies are strongly willing to control capacity and support prices. The demand side benefits from pre - Spring Festival stocking and restocking needs, improving the cabin loading rate; the supply side sees a reduction in blank sailings and a tightening of effective capacity. The Red Sea situation has marginally eased, with some airlines tentatively resuming flights, but overall they remain cautious. Freight rates may peak in early January, and the market faces adjustment pressure depending on demand sustainability and flight resumption progress. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1656, up 6.66% from the previous value of 1553. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1147, up 1.95% from 1125. SCFI - US West is 2188, up 9.84%, SCFIS - US West is 962, up 4.11%, SCFI - US East is 3033, up 6.57%, and SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1690, up 10.24%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1589, up 5.23%, and SCFI - Mediterranean is 3143, up 10.94%. [5] - **Contract Data**: For contracts, EC2506 is 1316.2, down 0.29% from 1320.0; EC2608 is 1486.1, down 0.71% from 1496.7; EC2610 is 1049.3, down 0.92% from 1059.0; EC2512 is 1613.0, up 0.31% from 1608.0; EC2602 is 1824.5, up 1.38% from 1799.7; EC2604 is 1154.8, down 0.83% from 1164.5. [5] - **Position Data**: EC2606 position is 2249, up 123 from 2126; EC2608 position is 1192; EC2610 position is 6049, up 108 from 5941; EC2512 position is 1675, down 39 from 1714; EC2602 position is 31849, down 2401 from 34250; EC2604 position is 21462, up 208 from 21254. [5] - **Monthly Spread**: The 12 - 02 monthly spread is - 211.5, down 19.8 from - 191.7; the 12 - 04 monthly spread is 458.2, up 14.7 from 443.5; the 02 - 04 monthly spread is 669.7, up 34.5 from 635.2. [5] 3.2 Market Overview - The EC market shows a volatile trend. [7] 3.3 Spot Price - **Gemini Alliance**: MSK's freight rate in the second week of January rose to 2540 dollars/FEU, a 40 - dollar increase compared to the opening price, with the overall offline loading rate increasing. HPL - SPOT's price in the first half of January dropped from 3535 dollars/FEU to 3035 dollars/FEU, and there is an expected increase back to 3535 dollars/FEU in the second half of January. [8] - **OCEAN Alliance**: OOCL's freight rate in the first half of January remained flat at 3180 - 3230 dollars/FEU. CMA's freight rate in the first half of January rose slightly from 3245 dollars/FEU to 3293 dollars/FEU. [8] - **MSC&PA Alliance**: ONE has an expected online price increase to 2835 dollars/FEU in the second half of January. Offline, the FAK quote in the first half of January was 2800 dollars/PEU, up 120 dollars/FEU from the end of December. YML's offline quote is 2800 dollars/FEU, with special prices available for large volumes. [8] 3.4 Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see. [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on PVC in the short - term is "oscillatory", with an amplitude of - 5% - 5% [3][89] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is affected by multiple factors. Supply is bearish as the fundamental situation of oversupply persists, with production slightly increasing due to reduced maintenance. Demand is also bearish as downstream demand enters the off - season, and although exports are rising, the overall demand remains weak. Inventory is bearish as social inventory increases. However, profit and valuation are bullish, and the macro - policy is positive, with a warming macro - sentiment leading to a small rebound in the market. In the short - term, PVC has no obvious drivers and is expected to oscillate [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. The domestic PVC spot market has a narrow adjustment, and the supply - demand pattern is still oversupplied. The PVC production capacity utilization rate is 77.23%, with a 0.15% week - on - week decrease and a 3.39% year - on - year decrease. The utilization rate of calcium carbide method is 78.49% (0.75% week - on - week increase, 1.68% year - on - year decrease), and that of ethylene method is 74.28% (2.25% week - on - week decrease, 7.64% year - on - year decrease) [3] - **Demand**: Bearish. Downstream demand is in the off - season, with a decline in downstream start - up rates. The start - up rate of PVC pipe sample enterprises is 37.60% (0.20% week - on - week increase, 1.04% year - on - year increase), and that of PVC profile enterprises has a 0.74% week - on - week decrease. The export volume in October 2025 is 31.21 tons, with a single - month export volume decreasing by 9.91% month - on - month and increasing by 34.28% year - on - year, and a cumulative increase of 48.88% year - to - date [3] - **Inventory**: Bearish. The PVC social inventory has a 0.43% week - on - week increase to 106.11 tons, with a 31.92% year - on - year increase. The factory - warehouse inventory of PVC producers can be produced for 5.1 days, with a 3.77% week - on - week decrease [3] - **Basis**: Neutral. The basis has strengthened, currently at - 612 yuan/ton [3] - **Profit**: Bullish. The profits of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC have increased week - on - week. As of December 26, the average gross profit of calcium carbide method PVC producers is - 760 yuan/ton (223 yuan/ton increase week - on - week), and that of ethylene method PVC producers is - 336 yuan/ton (134 yuan/ton increase week - on - week) [3] - **Valuation**: Bullish. The price is at a historical low, and the valuation is low [3] - **Macro - policy**: Bullish. The macro - sentiment is positive, and the market has a small rebound [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillatory. In the short - term, PVC has no obvious drivers and is expected to oscillate [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, there is currently no strategy [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Market Review**: The PVC powder market oscillated weakly during the week and rebounded strongly on Friday night. On the supply side, there are no new enterprises entering maintenance, but some enterprises maintain a low start - up rate due to cost pressure and environmental protection control. After the end of maintenance at some enterprises, production is expected to increase slightly, increasing supply pressure. On the demand side, the domestic downstream start - up rate continues to decline, with weak demand for hard products and a decline in the start - up rate of some soft products due to the rise in other raw material prices. In terms of exports, foreign trade exports mainly maintain a wait - and - see attitude. The PVC futures oscillated strongly during the week, with a positive macro - environment and less new global PVC production capacity in 2026, leading to an optimistic future expectation [7] - **Price Difference on the Market**: The price difference has widened, and PVC maintains a contango structure [9] 3.3 PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production in Main Producing Regions**: After the end of maintenance, the production in the northwest region has rebounded [36] - **Exports**: It is the seasonal off - season, and exports have slowed down. There is still room for export profits, but due to weak foreign demand and low - price competition, the room for volume expansion is limited [81]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ has suspended production increases. The long - term supply and demand of crude oil remain bearish. Short - term geopolitical situations are the main disturbances. Oil prices will still show an oscillating performance in the short term, but the long - term price center tends to decline [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA slightly raised its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC and IEA data on OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' oil production in November showed different trends. Overall, the supply factor is rated as neutral [3] - **Demand (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different adjustments to the forecast of global crude oil and related liquid demand growth rates in 2025 and 2026. The demand factor is rated as neutral [3] - **Inventory (Short Term)**: In the week ending December 12, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased, while Cushing crude oil inventory decreased. Gasoline and distillate inventories also increased. The inventory factor is rated as neutral [3] - **Oil - producing Countries' Policies (Medium - Long Term)**: At the December OPEC+ meeting, production was maintained unchanged until the end of 2026, and a new mechanism for evaluating production capacity was approved. The production of Saudi Arabia in November showed certain changes. This factor is rated as neutral [3] - **Geopolitics (Short Term)**: The Russia - Ukraine conflict is complex, and the US has imposed economic sanctions and military deployments on Venezuela. This factor is rated as bullish [3] - **Macro - finance (Short Term)**: The US GDP growth rate in the third quarter was high, but the fourth - quarter economic growth may face pressure. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January 2026 was 19.9%. This factor is rated as neutral [3] - **Investment and Trading Strategies**: The investment view is "oscillating". The trading strategies for both unilateral and arbitrage are to wait and see [3] Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Geopolitical risks have led to wide - range fluctuations in international oil prices. This week, oil prices rebounded and then fell. By December 26, the closing prices of WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil futures had increased to varying degrees [6] - **Monthly Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The near - month spread weakened, and the internal - external spread declined [9] - **Forward Curve**: Near - month pressure remains high [21] - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene all declined [26][37] Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In November 2025, global crude oil production increased. Different institutions had different data on the production of OPEC and Non - OPEC countries. US weekly crude oil production decreased slightly, and the number of active drilling rigs increased [49][61][84] - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while Cushing inventory increased. Northwest European crude oil inventory rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventory declined. In China, the inventory of various oil products showed certain changes [85][95][106] - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand increased significantly, and refinery operating rates remained high. In China, refinery capacity utilization increased slightly, and the refinery profit of major refineries decreased, while the gasoline and diesel crack spreads were stable [108][118][127] - **Macro - finance**: US Treasury yields rebounded, and the US dollar index weakened [139] - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [148]