Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to remain relatively strong as it broke through the previous oscillation range last week. In 2026, the rapid rise phase driven by liquidity and market risk preference may have ended, and the A - share "slow - bull" pattern is entering the second half. With macro - policy support, inflation warming, and capital market policy guidance, the stock index is expected to rise further in 2026 compared to 2025. Futures traders can use the futures discount structure to enhance the winning rate of long - position strategies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rates and Bond Markets - DR001 closed at 1.24 with a - 0.21bp change, DR007 at 1.69 with a 9.30bp change, GC001 at 2.04 with a 20.00bp change, and GC007 at 2.05 with a 2.50bp change. SHBOR 3M was at 1.60 with no change, and LPR 5 - year was at 3.50 with no change. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese government bonds were at 1.34, 1.61, and 1.86 respectively, with changes of 0.50bp, 1.25bp, and 0.20bp. The 10 - year US Treasury bond was at 4.12 with a - 2.00bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 4823 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 673 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net investment was 4150 billion yuan. This week (December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026), 6227 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [3][4]. Stock Indexes and Futures - The closing prices and changes of major stock indexes: the CSI 300 rose 0.26% to 4651, the SSE 50 rose 0.06% to 3037, the CSI 500 rose 0.38% to 7459, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.04% to 7597. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 21426 billion yuan, a slight increase of 33 billion yuan. Industry sectors showed more declines than increases [5][6]. - The trading volume and position changes of stock index futures: IF volume was 94429 with a - 1.8% change, and its position was 281129 with a 1.9% change; IH volume was 41166 with a 4.2% change, and its position was 88407 with a 1.3% change; IC volume was 117475 with a 4.2% change, and its position was 288847 with a 4.7% change; IM volume was 163327 with a 2.3% change, and its position was 372661 with a 3.0% change [5]. - The current, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts of IF had an average premium of 3.55%, 3.21%, 2.85%, and 3.36% respectively; IH had 0.81%, 0.73%, 0.17%, and 0.71% respectively; IC had 0.50%, 3.91%, 4.77%, and 7.38% respectively; IM had 0.99%, 7.14%, 8.29%, and 10.38% respectively [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp market is currently experiencing a fierce game between the narratives of "strong supply" and "weak demand", and is subject to significant fluctuations due to market macro funds. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Price Data - On December 30, 2025, the daily change rate of SP2601 was -0.97%, and the weekly change rate was 1.03%, with a price of 5496 yuan/ton; the daily change rate of SP2609 was 0.83%, and the weekly change rate was -1.16%, with a price of 5604 yuan/ton; the daily change rate of SP2605 was -0.93%, and the price was 5568 yuan/ton [6] - The daily change rate of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 0.00%, and the weekly change rate was 0.00%, with a price of 5600 yuan/ton; the daily change rate of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 0.00%, and the weekly change rate was 0.00%, with a price of 5400 yuan/ton; the daily change rate of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 1.05%, with a price of 4670 yuan/ton [6] - The monthly change rate of Chilean Silver Star was 2.94%, with a price of 5721 yuan/ton (last price was 5600 yuan/ton); the monthly change rate of Brazilian Goldfish was 3.70%, and the import cost was 4587 yuan/ton (last price was 4425 yuan/ton) [6] Supply - side Data - In November 2025, the shipment volume of pulp to China: coniferous pulp was 72,500 tons (a 4.92% increase from October), and broad - leaf pulp was 131,800 tons (a 33.92% decrease from October) [6] - Suzano announced a full - scale price increase for global broad - leaf pulp in January 2026. The price of Goldfish broad - leaf pulp increased by 20 dollars in Asia and 120 dollars in Europe and North America [6] Demand - side Data - The demand side remains weak. Among mainstream wood - pulp papers, the price of cultural paper continues to decline, while the prices of tissue paper and white cardboard have slightly increased [6] Inventory - side Data - As of December 25, 2025, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 190.6 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons from the previous period, a 4.4% decrease. The inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks [6]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is titled "Commodity Options Data Daily" and issued by ITG Guomao Futures on December 30, 2025 [3][4][5] Group 2: Core Data - Historical Volatility and Price Changes - For various commodities like aluminum, PVC, copper, etc., data includes historical volatility (HV20, HV40, HV60, HV120), main contract prices, and price change rates. For example, aluminum's main contract price was 22,570 with a 23% increase and 12% historical volatility [5] Group 3: Core Data - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data is provided for multiple commodities such as eggs, polycrystalline silicon, etc., including main contract at - the - money implied volatility (IV) and its percentile value. For instance, the main contract at - the - money IV of eggs is 35% with a 66% percentile [6] Group 4: Core Data - Historical Trends - Historical trends of main contract at - the - money implied volatility and main contract closing prices are presented for commodities like industrial silicon, iron ore, soybean oil, etc., with corresponding data from different time points in 2024 - 2025 [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Malay high-frequency data has improved, but there is still significant pressure in December. The market is expected to rebound in the short term and then continue to decline, awaiting the release of MPOB's December data. For rapeseed oil, influenced by traders taking delivery and obstacles in Australian imports, the price has risen. Short-term observation is recommended, and it is not advisable to chase the upward trend. For soybean oil, wait for the USDA's January report and pay attention to the adjustment of the new US soybean yield per unit area [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Spot Price - 24-degree palm oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8650, 8590, and 8490 respectively, with a decrease of 20 compared to December 26, 2025. The palm oil main contract spot basis in South China for Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu was 5000, 4000, and 3000 (or 2000) respectively [1] - First-grade soybean oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8250, 8390, and 8400 respectively, with no change compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - Fourth-grade rapeseed oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9880, 9930, and 10130 respectively, with an increase of 100 compared to December 26, 2025. The soybean oil main contract spot basis in North China for Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu was 2000, 1500, and 1000 respectively [1] Futures Data - The price difference between the soybean and palm oil main contracts was -694 on December 29, 2025, an increase of 38 compared to December 26, 2025. The price difference between the rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1222 on December 29, 2025, an increase of 12 compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts were 260 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025. The soybean oil warehouse receipts were 28264 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025. The rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3456 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025 [1] Industry News - On December 19, the Indonesian energy minister said that the country had launched a road test for B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, which is expected to last about six months. The mandatory use policy for B50 biodiesel is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2] - MPOC predicts that the crude palm oil price will fluctuate between 3800 and 4100 ringgit per ton in January next year, supported by seasonal low production and increased demand before the Lunar New Year and Ramadan [2] - According to MPOA, Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44% compared to the same period last month. According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month; exports from December 1 - 20 increased by 2.4% compared to the same period last month; exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 15.9% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 16.4% compared to the same period last month [2] - ANEC predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in December will be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture announced that a private exporter reported the sale of 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [2] - According to the Indian Solvent Extractors' Association, India's palm oil imports in November increased by about 5% compared to October, reaching 632,341 tons. Soybean oil imports decreased by more than 18% compared to the previous month, reaching 370,661 tons. Sunflower oil imports decreased by 45% compared to the previous month, reaching 142,953 tons, the lowest in two years. India also imported 5,000 tons of rapeseed oil from the UAE. The decrease in soybean and sunflower oil imports led to a 13.3% decrease in India's total edible oil imports in November compared to the previous month, reaching a seven - month low of 1.15 million tons. In November, India imported a record - high 69,919 tons of soybean oil from China due to discounts offered by Chinese crushers due to oversupply [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt spot market faces prominent supply pressure, with increased refinery production schedules. Both refinery and social inventories are in an accumulation state. Demand remains sluggish due to the off - season. Some southern refineries have lowered prices to boost sales, while prices in Shandong are relatively stable due to low inventory levels. Meanwhile, the main futures contract has slightly risen, with both long and short positions leaving the market. The net - short position pattern remains unchanged, and the intraday fluctuation range has narrowed, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation. Overall, the current supply - demand contradiction in the asphalt market has not been improved, and the weakening of crude oil has reduced cost support. In the short term, the upward space of the futures is limited by the fundamentals, and the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Asphalt Market Data - **Spot Market**: In the East China region, the current price is 3000, the previous price was 3000 with a 0% increase; in the Northeast, the current price is 3410, the previous price was 3440 with a - 30 decrease; in the North China, the current price is 3010, the previous price was 3010 with a 0% increase; in the South, the current price is 2840, the previous price was 2800 with a 40 increase; in the Northwest, the current price is 3430, the previous price was 3430 with a 0% increase; in Shandong, the current price is 2920, the previous price was 2920 with a 0% increase [1]. - **Futures Market**: For the BU2601 contract, the current price is 2977, the previous price was 2969 with a 0.27% increase; for the BU2602 contract, the current price is 3008, the previous price was 2995 with a 0.43% increase [1]. 3.2 International News and Policy Expectations - **US Policy on Venezuela**: US officials have downplayed the possibility of military action against Venezuela and stated that the White House has ordered the US military to focus on oil blockades for at least the next two months. The US is prioritizing economic pressure through sanctions, believing that existing measures have put heavy pressure on the Maduro government. It has warned that Venezuela will face an economic disaster by the end of January if it does not make significant concessions [1]. - **Russian Public Expectations on the Russia - Ukraine Conflict**: A Russian national poll shows that most people expect the Ukraine conflict to end in 2026. Among 1600 respondents, 70% believe that Russia will be more successful in 2026, and 55% of the optimistic expectations are related to the end of the special military operation. This poll is considered a possible test by the Kremlin of public reaction to a peace agreement [2]. - **Fed Interest Rate Policy Expectations**: According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in January next year is 84.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 15.5%. By March, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 51.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 42.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is only 6.0%. The market has limited expectations for short - term rate cuts [2].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 (2012) 31号 合成橡胶数据日报 | | 市市 | | --- | --- | | 客 服 热 线 | 官方网站 ■ | | 400-8888-598 | 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn | ITGE शिवर 入 期 | 国贸期货研究院 | 从业资格证号:F3071622 | 2025/12/30 | 能源化工研究中心:叶海文 | 投资咨询证号: Z0014205 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行情综述 | 涨跌幅 | 指标 | 单位 | 涨跌 | 前目 | 现值 | 11635 | 11600 | 收盘价 | -35.00 | -0.30% | 元/吨 | | | | | | | | | | | 11490 | 130.00 | 结算价 | 元/吨 | 11 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given report. 2. Core View - On the supply side, the production center continues to shift to the northwest. On the demand side, the production schedule of polysilicon in December remains basically stable, but the terminal demand is weak, and subsequent production schedules may mainly involve production cuts. Due to joint production cuts to support prices, the production schedule of silicone in December is declining. On the inventory side, inventories are continuously accumulating. Overall, for industrial silicon, supply increases while demand decreases, inventory fluctuates, and prices may fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Fluctuations**: SI 2601 has a closing price of 7604, SI 2602 at 90286, SI 2603 at 8680, SI 2604 at 8715, and SI 2605 at 221065. Their price fluctuations are -1.03%, -0.97%, -0.97%, -0.46%, and -0.68% respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between si2601 - si2602 is -35 with a change of -5, and the spread between si2602 - si2603 is -20 with a change of 5. The spread between 421 spot and 553 oxygen - passed spot is 400 [1]. - **Basis**: The basis (East China 553 spot - main contract) is 535 with a change of 165 [1]. Spot Market - **Prices of Different Grades**: In the East China region, 553 (non - oxygenated) is priced at 9200, 553 (hydrogen - passed) at 9250, 421 at 9650, 441 at 9400, and 3303 at 10350. In Huangpu Port, 553 (hydrogen - passed) is 9300 and 421 is 9900. In Tianjin Port, 553 (hydrogen - passed) is 9600 and 421 is 9750. In Kunming, 421 is 10000, and in Sichuan, 421 is 9800. All price changes are 0 [1]. - **Related Product Prices**: DMC price is 13600, 107 glue is 14150, polysilicon (dense material, per kilogram) is 51, and the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 is 22400 with a change of 400 [1]. Warehouse Inventory - **Inventory Data**: The total inventory is 7.95 tons. The inventory at various warehouses such as Zhongchu Wusong, Zhongchu Chengdu Tianyi, etc., shows different levels, and the total inventory has increased by 480 from yesterday [1]. Industry Dynamics - **Project Information**: On November 14, the online approval and supervision platform for investment projects in Jiangxi Province announced the filing information for the annual production project of 137,500 tons of organic silicon new materials by Jiangxi Xinfang High - Tech Yongxiu [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Today's spot prices of live pigs continued to rise, and it is expected that the spot prices may stabilize tomorrow. This is mainly due to two factors: the expansion of the price difference between standard and fat pigs, which led to a decrease in the supply of large - weight pigs, triggering farmers' reluctance to sell and sporadic secondary fattening; although the Winter Solstice consumption period has passed, slaughtering and consumption are still in the seasonal peak season. The 03 contract follows the trend of the spot market, and the short - term spot market is strong in the peak - season context, but attention should be paid to the selling pressure rhythm of retail farmers before the Spring Festival after this round of reluctance to sell [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Spot Price and Futures Price Information - **Spot Price**: On December 29, 2025, the national average spot price of live pigs was 12.75, with a rise of 0.56. Prices in different regions ranged from 11.94 (Jiangxi) to 12.91 (Jiangsu), with price increases in each region ranging from 0.60 to 0.97. The price of LH2601 was 11340, up 40; LH2603 was 11715, up 70; LH2605 was 12150, up 60. The spread between LH01 - 03 was - 375, and the spread between LH03 - 05 was - 435 on December 29, with changes of - 30 and 10 respectively [3]. 3.2 Market Supply Information - According to Yongyi data, the average weight of live pig slaughter this week was 129.70 kg, a decrease of 0.48 kg from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%, and an increase of 0.48 kg from last month. The average weight of group - farmed pigs slaughtered this week was 124.34 kg, a decrease of 0.22 kg from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%. The market's slaughter fluctuations mainly come from short - term actions of retail farmers [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weakening and fluctuating trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Indicators - The prices of晋城无烟煤, 内蒙动力煤, 川渝液化气, 国际天然气, 中国, 东南亚, 西北欧, 美国, 河北焦炉气, 内蒙煤制, 山东煤制, 山西煤制, 四川天然气, MTOHT 下率, 二甲醚开工率, 甲醛开工率, 醋酸开工率, 氯化物开工率, MTBE 开工率, 甲醛(山东), 二甲醚, 甲烷氯化物, MTBE remained unchanged from 2025/12/26 to 2026/12/29. The price of 太仓 methanol increased by 20.00 to 2140.00, and the price of acetic acid increased by 30.00 to 2600.00, while the price of 山东 methanol decreased by 10.00 to 2150.00 [1] Supply - Domestic methanol production decreased by 540.00 to 293435.00, and the domestic methanol operating rate decreased by 0.17 to 90.44. The international operating rate remained unchanged at 59.96, and the import arrival volume remained unchanged at 34.40 [1] Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory of methanol remained unchanged at 391140.00 and 1218818.00 respectively [1] Demand - The order backlog of methanol remained unchanged at 220429.00 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market sentiment and liquidity are in a good state, with the stock index breaking through the previous shock range and expected to remain strong in the short - term. The bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Different commodities in various industries show different trends based on their own fundamentals and macro - factors [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Categories Equity and Bond Markets - **Stock Index**: The stock index continued to rise yesterday, with increased trading volume. It has broken through the previous shock range and is expected to maintain a strong upward trend in the short - term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The industrial situation is weak recently, but the macro sentiment is positive, so the copper price remains strong [1]. - **Aluminum**: There has been inventory accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum recently, with limited industrial drivers. However, due to positive macro sentiment, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed to strengthen management and optimize the layout of resource - constrained industries such as alumina and copper smelting. Alumina has rebounded from an oversold position, and the policy's sustainability should be monitored [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With the improvement of market risk appetite, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Nickel**: The macro sentiment has warmed up. Indonesia's nickel ore premium in December remained stable. The planned RKAB nickel ore production in 2026 is expected to be reduced to 2.5 billion tons (a year - on - year decrease of 34%), and nickel - associated minerals will be priced. The global nickel inventory is still at a high level. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently, and the short - term nickel price may be strong. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will remain in an oversupply situation [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The market sentiment is high. Silver has accelerated its upward movement, and gold has risen steadily. The gold - silver ratio has fallen to the lowest level since 2013. The short - term precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of sharp fluctuations in silver [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium in the overseas market rose significantly last Friday, which is expected to drive up the domestic prices. However, the domestic futures prices of platinum and palladium have a large premium over the spot and overseas prices, so investors are advised to participate rationally [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a medium - to - long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter. Large enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver goods. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and the energy storage demand is strong. The supply side has increased production, and the price has accelerated its rise in the short - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The basis of the futures - spot spread and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward potential [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The direct demand has weakened, the supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure, so the prices are under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the official announcement of the steel export licensing system, the coking coal and coke prices rebounded quickly after opening lower, showing signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The high - frequency data has improved, but it is difficult to change the expectation of a loose supply in the production areas. Rebound short - selling is recommended [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The export of US soybeans is weak, and there is no obvious speculation driver in South American weather. The Brazilian premium is expected to be under pressure. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, showing a pattern of strong near - month and weak far - month contracts [1]. - **Corn**: The progress of farmers' grain sales at the grass - roots level is relatively fast, and the inventory levels of ports and downstream are still low. Most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly under the restocking demand of the middle and lower reaches [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in an oversupply situation, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil exports [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is affected by the same factors as crude oil, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical and tariff situation has eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the logic of a fundamentally loose supply. The CP/FEI has recently rebounded. The domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth, and the inventory has no pressure. The PG futures price has maintained a range - bound movement after a supplementary decline [1].