资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 农产品研究中心 gg 9 杨璐琳 | | 从业资格号:F3042528 | 2025/12/02 | | | 地区 | 2025/12/01 | 涨跌值\ | 升贴水(修改后) | 与2601基差 | 涨跌值 | | | 河南 | 11.55 | 0.23 | 0 - 国 | 55 | 200 | | | 湖南 | 11. 43 | 0.5 | 100 | -165 | 470 | | | 湖北 | 41.3 | 0.24 012 | 0 | -195 | P 210 | | | 安徽 | 11.63 | 0. 22 | 200 | -65 | 190 | | | 江西 | 11. 34 | 0.5 | 2100 | -255 | 470 | | | 山西 | 11.14 | 0. 07 | -100 | -255 | 40 | | | 山东 | 11.61 | 0. 18 | 200 ...

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - Due to continuous production cuts in the southwest region during the dry season on both the supply and demand sides, and a significant decline in inventory due to the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts, with limited actual consumption, the market may fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - SI2512 closed at 9155 with a 0.38% increase and a position of 1674 [2]. - SI2601 closed at 9145 with a 0.16% decrease and a position of 203274 [2]. - SI2602 closed at 9140 with no change and a position of 52565 [2]. - SI2603 closed at 9145 with a 0.16% decrease and a position of 26444 [2]. - SI2604 closed at 9135 with a 0.11% decrease and a position of 12994 [2]. Spot Market - In the East region, 553 (non - oxygen - passing) was priced at 9350 with no change, 553 (hydrogen - passing) at 9550 with no change, 421 at 9800 with no change, 441 at 9750, and 3303 at 10450 [2]. - At Huangpu Port, 553 (hydrogen - passing) was priced at 9600 with no change, and 421 at 10050 [2]. - At Tianjin Port, 553 (flux - passing) was priced at 9400, and 421 at 9800 with no change [2]. - In Kunming, 553 (hydrogen - passing) was priced at 9600, and 421 at 10000 with no change [2]. - Sichuan DMC price for 421 was 9800, 107 - glue was 13850, polycrystalline silicon (dense material, per kg) was 51 with no change, and the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21500 with a 150 increase [2]. Price Difference - The price difference between si2512 and si2601 was 10 - 45 [2]. - The price difference between si2601 and si2602 was 5 - 15 [2]. - The price difference between 421 spot and 553 oxygen - passing spot was 250 [2]. - The basis (East 553 spot - main contract) was 405 with a 15 decrease [2]. Warehouse Information - The total capacity of all warehouses was 7.5 tons, and the total number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3680 [2]. Industry Dynamics - On November 14, the online approval and supervision platform for investment projects in Jiangxi Province announced the filing information for an annual production of 137,500 tons of organic silicon new material project by Jiangxi Xinfang High - Tech Yongxiu [2].

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] - **Report Date**: December 1, 2025 [5] - **Researcher**: Lu Zhaoyi from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [5] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The EC market shows a weak and volatile trend. The main reason is the news that Maersk's vessels are expected to start partial resumption of passage through the Suez Canal in early December 2025 as a prelude to full resumption of navigation, and CMA CGM plans to achieve full navigation in December 2026. The future market trend will present a weak and volatile pattern, with core driving factors including the implementation of December freight rates, the strength of the January price increase, and seasonal changes in cargo volume [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - **SCFI**: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1403, with a previous value of 1394 and a rise - fall rate of 0.69%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a current value of 1122, a previous value of 1123, and a rise - fall rate of - 0.09%. Different routes show varying trends, such as SCFI - US West with a - 0.79% change, SCFI - US East with a 1.85% change, etc. [5] - **SCFIS**: SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1357, a previous value of 1504, and a rise - fall rate of - 9.77%. SCFIS - Mediterranean has a current value of 2232, a previous value of 2055, and a rise - fall rate of 8.61% [5] Shipping Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., prices show different changes. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1190.1, a previous value of 1252.0, and a rise - fall rate of - 4.94% [5] - **Contract Positions**: Positions of different contracts also change. For example, the current position of EC2606 is 2186, with a previous position of 1986 and a change of 200 [5] - **Monthly Spreads**: The current value of the 12 - 02 monthly spread is 225.2, with a previous value of 235.0 and a change of - 9.8 [5] Market News - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd have no specific time to adjust the "Gemini" east - west routes. CMA CGM refuses to comment on full return to the Red Sea routes, and its self - operated fleet has not fully resumed. The Suez Canal Authority expects full recovery of vessel traffic volume and revenue normalization by the end of 2026. There is a new battlefield in Sino - US competition affecting third - country trade agreements [6] EC Market Analysis - **Spot Prices**: In early December, MSK quotes 2500, HPL quotes 2350, etc. [7] - **Market Logic**: The future market will be weak and volatile. If leading shipping companies maintain quotes between 2400 - 2600 US dollars/FEU in December and there is no large - scale overbooking, EC near - month contracts will continue to be under pressure. The difficulty of the January price increase will increase if cargo volume remains weak or shipping company quotes diverge more, limiting the upside space of the 02 contract. Seasonal cargo volume changes from late December to early January need to be observed [7] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see as the 12 - contract is gradually losing trading value [8]

Report Summary Core View - The report provides a daily data analysis of stock index options, including market trends, trading volume, open interest, and volatility of major indices such as SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 [3]. Index Performance - SSE 50 closed at 2969.6171, down 0.09% with a trading volume of 0.25 billion and a turnover of 850.31 billion yuan [3]. - CSI 300 closed at 4526.6616, up 0.25% with a trading volume of 1.06 billion and a turnover of 3418.32 billion yuan [3]. - CSI 1000 closed at 6616.3421, up 1.06% with a trading volume of 200.68 million and a turnover of 7334.2097 billion yuan [3]. Option Trading Volume and Open Interest - For SSE 50 options, the call option trading volume was 3.70 million, the put option trading volume was 1.87 million, the call option open interest was 6.24 million, and the put option open interest was 2.55 million [3]. - For CSI 300 options, the call option trading volume was 4.48 million, the put option trading volume was 2.89 million, the call option open interest was 17.16 million, and the put option open interest was 7.06 million [3]. - For CSI 1000 options, the call option trading volume was 17.35 million, the put option trading volume was 9.32 million, the call option open interest was 29.74 million, and the put option open interest was 8.04 million [3]. Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility and volatility cone for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, as well as their volatility smile curves for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4]. Overall Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34% to 3888.6, down 1.67% monthly; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.85%, down 2.95% monthly; the ChiNext Index rose 0.7%, down 4.23% monthly; the North - Star 50 Index rose 0.39%, down 12.32% monthly; the STAR 50 Index rose 1.25%, down 6.24% monthly; the Wind All - A Index rose 0.77%, down 2.22% monthly; the Wind A500 Index rose 0.44%, down 2.71% monthly; the CSI A500 Index rose 0.46%, down 2.56% monthly. A - share trading volume was 1.6 trillion yuan, compared to 1.72 trillion yuan the previous day [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - China's purchasing demand supports the US market. The domestic market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to weather changes in South America. If there is weather speculation, it will be beneficial for the unilateral and spot basis. Without obvious weather problems, the new crop's discount is expected to face pressure under the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil from December to January, dragging down the domestic soybean meal pricing. The spread between M103 and M105 is expected to be in a positive spread situation, with the risk point being the release of domestic reserves [8] - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit shows a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month [8] - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, the reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure on spot supply is still large. It is expected to accelerate inventory reduction from December to January, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has decreased to a low level [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Basis Data - The basis of the 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in different regions on November 28: Dalian was 96 with a change of 21; Tianjin was 56 with a change of 21; Rizhao was - 24 with a change of - 9; Zhangjiagang was - 14 with a change of 11; Dongguan was - 44 with a change of 11; Zhanjiang was - 24 with a change of 31; Fangcheng was - 44 with a change of 11. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 84 with a change of 121 [4] Spread Data - The RM1 - 5 spread was 37 with a change of - 18. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: the spot spread in Guangdong was 300, and the spread on the main contract was 592 with a change of 6. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market was 435 with a change of - 127 [5] Supply Situation - USDA's current forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 53 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further reduced due to less rainfall in the production areas from August to September [7] - According to CONAB data, the predicted output of new Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 177.6 million tons. As of November 22, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 78% (last week was 60%, and the same period last year was 83.3%, with a five - year average of 75.8%). According to BACE, as of November 26, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 36% (last week was 24.6%, and the same period last year was 45%) [7] Demand Situation - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, and the reduction of production capacity is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit shows a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high, and the recent downstream transactions of soybean meal are normal with good提货 performance [8] Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, the reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure on spot supply is still large. It is expected to accelerate inventory reduction from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has decreased to a low level [8] Others - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.0420. The Brazilian import soybean's on - disk crushing profit was 240 yuan/ton with a change of - 181.00, and the on - disk gross profit of imported soybeans in 2025 was 195 yuan/ton [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report suggests taking short - selling positions when the price rises. Iron ore is facing clear upward price pressure due to rising inventories. The market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the inventory is likely to continue to accumulate in the medium - term [1][2][19] Group 3: Supply - Recently, the shipment to the port has basically met expectations, and the supply side is relatively stable [1] Group 4: Demand - The current steel mill's hot metal production has slightly decreased to 234.68 tons (-1.6), mainly because some steel mills in the southern region have increased losses and weakening demand, leading to mill maintenance. The profit - making ratio of steel mills has continued to decline, dropping 2.6% to 35.06% month - on - month. According to the maintenance plan, the hot metal production is expected to decline slightly [6][7] Group 5: Inventory - The average daily port clearance volume of 47 ports has increased by 1.67 tons to a high of 345.06 tons. With the decrease in berthed ships, the port inventory has increased by 166.37 tons, exceeding the level of the same period last year [6][7] Group 6: Market Sentiment - This week, the Wenhua Index has been running strongly, but the Black Chain Index is still running weakly after approaching the lower limit of the range. Among them, iron - related products such as iron ore, rebar, and hot - rolled coils are strong, while products such as coking coal and coke are weak. Iron ore lacks its own driving force to break through the upper limit of the range, so it is still recommended to take short - selling positions when the price rises [6][19] Group 7: Steel Production and Inventory - This week, the output of the five major steel products has slightly rebounded, with the increase mainly coming from coil products. Rebar continues its rhythm of low output, low apparent demand, and slight inventory reduction. The pressure on hot - rolled coils is gradually emerging. Although the total inventory of hot - rolled coils is still decreasing, the rate of decline has weakened, and the overall inventory far exceeds the seasonal level. Specific data: rebar production is 206.08 (-1.88), total rebar inventory is 531.48 (-21.86), rebar apparent demand is 227.94 (-2.85); hot - rolled coil production is 319.01 (3), total hot - rolled coil inventory is 400.9 (-1.21), hot - rolled coil apparent demand is 320.22 (-4.2); the output of the five major steel products is 855.71 (5.8), the total inventory of the five major steel products is 1400.81 (-32.29), and the apparent demand of the five major steel products is 888 (-6.16) [9][10]

| 工工程度 | | | 1 1 1 5 1 2 7 5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业分符号:日04517 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | | 趋势研判 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整过程中逐步消化,后续有望 | | | | | 随着新主线的出现推动股指进一步上行。与此同时,中央汇金的 | | | | | 托底作用为市场提供了一定缓冲,指数下行风险整体可控。从策 略角度看,近期市场的调整为明年股指进一步上行提供了布局机 | | 宏观金融。 | | | 会,交易者可考虑在市场调整阶段逐步建立多头头寸,并借助股 指期货的贴水结构提升长线投资的胜率。 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | 罕间。 近期美联储降息预期提升,市场情绪向好,叠加产业面存在支 | | | | | 撑,铜价偏强运行。 | | | | 有为 | 近期产业面驱动有限，而宏观情绪向好,铝价回升。 | | | 氢化铝 | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价 | | | | | 格继 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Short - term news boosts oil prices, but long - term inventory pressure limits the rebound space and sustainability of oil prices [2] - Precious metals are supported by the expectation of Fed rate cuts and tight spot supply, showing high volatility [3] - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long - term, supported by demand and inventory factors [4] - Aluminum prices are mainly volatile, with limited industrial contradictions and macro - sentiment dominance [5] - The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and geopolitical situations, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + maintains the production plan, short - term news boosts prices, but long - term inventory pressure exists [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical risks in the short - term, and supply will be loose in the medium - term; low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant [20] - **Asphalt**: Demand in some areas drives inventory reduction, but overall, year - end supply - demand is expected to be loose [21] - **Urea**: Short - term market is strong due to downstream procurement, but long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose [22] - **Methanol**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and port inventory may suppress the market [23] - **Pure Benzene**: Price is in a volatile pattern due to supply - demand factors [24] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Cost support is strengthened, and supply - demand is in a tight balance [25] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: International oil prices drive futures price rebounds, but spot demand is hard to release [26] - **PVC &烧碱**: PVC is in a low - level range, and烧碱 is in a weak operation [27] - **PX & PTA**: PX price rebounds, PTA is cost - driven, and supply - demand situations vary in the short and medium - term [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is marginally improved, but mid - term weakness remains [29] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber price follows raw materials, and bottle - chip is cost - driven with over - capacity pressure [30] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Silver drives the strength of precious metals, and platinum is favored [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Prices are expected to rise, supported by demand and inventory factors [4] - **Aluminum**: Prices are mainly volatile, with limited industrial contradictions [5] - **Zinc**: Prices are in a range - bound state, with strong bottom support [8] - **Tin**: Prices may have short - term space, but mid - term fundamentals are general [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: Bottom support is expected to move down [17] - **Silicon Iron**: Bottom support will be tested [18] - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices rebound, but demand is weak, and supply pressure is gradually relieved [13] - **Iron Ore**: Prices are expected to be volatile, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation [14] - **Coke**: Prices may be in a weak - volatile pattern [15] - **Coking Coal**: Prices may be in a weak - volatile pattern [16] Agriculture - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach a record high, and domestic supply is sufficient. Observe the callback and look for long - position opportunities [34] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil supply - demand is weak but marginally improving; soybean oil is affected by US soybean exports and South American weather [35] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term drivers are not significant, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [36] - **Corn**: Corn futures are in a high - level shock, and pay attention to new - grain sales and trade agreements [38] - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: US cotton exports are improving, and domestic new - cotton sales are fast. Look for hedging opportunities [41] - **Sugar**: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production in Guangxi is expected to be good [42] - **Apples**: Short - term prices are strong, but long - term inventory pressure may exist [43] - **Timber**: Low inventory supports prices, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [44] - **Paper Pulp**: Prices are in a downward trend due to weak fundamentals, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [45] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFI European route shows weak price increase, and different contracts of the container shipping index have different trends [19] - **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index**: Short - term macro and geopolitical uncertainties exist, and maintain a wait - and - see and defensive strategy [46] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures show a differentiated performance, and there is a weak - volatile pattern [47]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 现货短期坚挺，盘面高位震荡 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-12-01 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:现货短期坚挺，盘面高位震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 短期偏多， 中期偏空 | （1）短期基层农户惜售，但短期惜售或意味着卖压的后置，建议关注12-1月的产地卖压；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降，播种面积稳中略减，单产表 现良好，整体维持丰产预期。 | | | 需求 | 偏多 | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，截至2025年10月，全国工业饲料产量2907万吨，环比减少4.2%，同比增长3.6%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为 38.0%，同比下降2.7个百分点。（2）畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，产能去化尚不明显，支撑饲用需求，但 ...