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合成橡胶数据日报-20251017
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:01
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on synthetic rubber, released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute on October 17, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Market Quotes Summary Futures Market - The closing price of BR2511.SHF was 10,895 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan or 2.20% [3] - The settlement price was 11,005 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 1.85% [3] - The trading volume was 18,411 lots, with a 0.00% change, and the position was 76,904 lots, up 27.63% [3] Spot Market - Sinopec Chemical Sales' high - cis butadiene rubber price decreased by 300 yuan/ton this cycle, and PetroChina's main sales companies' price decreased by 500 yuan/ton [3] - As of October 16, 2025, Sinopec Chemical Sales' BR9000 ex - factory price was 11,200 yuan/ton, and PetroChina's main sales companies' BR9000 ex - factory price was 11,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton [3] Price Differences - The month - to - month spread between the second and first contracts was 25 yuan/ton, up 150.00% [3] - The spread between BR and RU was 5.88% [3] - The spread between BR and NR was 11.94% [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Trends - The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to decline and then rebounded rapidly this cycle. The spot price ranged from 10,600 to 11,400 yuan/ton [3] - At the end of the cycle, under the influence of factors such as increased domestic maintenance losses in October - December and the US interest rate cut, the futures and spot prices of butadiene rubber rebounded rapidly [3] Supply and Demand - The external sales resources of raw materials were sufficient this cycle, but the spot negotiation focus gradually stopped falling, and the weak cost situation of butadiene rubber was slightly alleviated [3] - Due to the successive maintenance of butadiene rubber plants of Qilu Petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical, Sinopec's short - and medium - term circulation resources are expected to decrease significantly [3] - There is marginal production profit in private butadiene rubber, leading to an increase in supply, and the price of private resources in the spot market has been lower than that of the two major oil companies [3] - Downstream procurement continued to suppress prices, causing the spot negotiation focus to decline continuously [3] Group 4: Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: The BR market is expected to consolidate [3] - Arbitrage: After the spread widens again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3]
PVC数据日报-20251017
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 05:54
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - The macro - policy has high uncertainty, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - Domestic PVC powder market prices were narrowly adjusted, with mainstream markets slightly rising or falling, and price fluctuations mostly in the range of 0 - 10 yuan/ton. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average, and overall spot trading was light. The mainstream spot cash self - pick - up prices for type 5 calcium carbide PVC were 4560 - 4670 yuan/ton in East China, 4620 - 4690 yuan/ton in South China, 4440 - 4550 yuan/ton delivered in cash in Hebei, and 4570 - 4610 yuan/ton delivered in cash in Shandong [1] Futures Market - The futures market was weak in the night session yesterday and showed a slightly stronger overall oscillation today. The fixed - price quotes of traders in the morning changed little, and some of the basis quotes strengthened slightly, but high - price transactions were difficult [1] Basis - The basis in East China decreased from - 97 to - 114, in South China from - 17 to - 34, and in another area from - 117 to - 134, all with a decrease of 17 [1] Profit - The profit of Shandong calcium carbide method and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide method remained unchanged at - 1240 and - 969 respectively [1] External Market - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 706 and 649 respectively [1] Operating Rate - The operating rate of calcium carbide method increased from 82.13% to 82.94%, that of ethylene method increased from 79.75% to 81.9%, and the total operating rate increased from 81.42% to 82.63% [1] Inventory - The inventory in East China increased from 48.84 to 50.27, in South China from 4.93 to 5.43, and the social inventory increased from 53.77 to 55.7 [1]
多晶硅数据日报-20251017
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 05:53
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of polysilicon has seen an unexpected increase in production scheduling in October due to the resumption of production in Qinghai and the ramping - up of new capacities in other regions. The demand side may see a reduction in silicon wafer production scheduling in October due to the fourth - quarter quota limit. The inventory side shows an accumulation of factory and warehouse - receipt inventories. The two ministries have emphasized not to bid below cost, strengthening the effectiveness of cost support. A policy framework of "capacity reduction + sales at no less than cost price" for polysilicon has basically taken shape, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals of polysilicon may improve. However, due to the long - term non - fulfillment of the "anti - involution" measure, market sentiment has faded, and the futures price may fluctuate in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - PS2511 closed at 52,575 with a 3.36% increase; PS2510 closed at 55,000 with a 3.55% increase; PS2512 closed at 55,050 with a 3.18% increase; PS2601 closed at 54,975 with a 3.18% increase [1] Price Difference - The price difference between PS2510 - PS2511 is - 20 with a change of 90; the price difference between PS2511 - PS2512 is 15 with a change of - 2475; the price difference between PS2512 - PS2601 is 75 with no change [1] Spot Price - The average price of N - type dense polysilicon is 51.25 with no change; the average price of N - type mixed - material polysilicon is 50.25 with no change [1][2] Basis - The basis of N - type dense material - PS2511 is - 1325 with a change of - 1710; the basis of N - type mixed - material polysilicon - PS2511 is - 2325 with a change of - 1710 [2] Inventory - The polysilicon inventory (weekly, in ten thousand tons) is 25.3 with an increase of 1.3; the silicon wafer inventory (weekly, in GW) is 17.31 with an increase of 0.53; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, in tons) is 8130 with an increase of 80 [2] Market News - On October 14, there was market news that relevant authorities might issue a document to strengthen photovoltaic capacity regulation. An industry insider close to the authorities said the document might be released soon, including requirements for limiting the capacity utilization rate of the entire industrial chain and banning new capacity to achieve supply - demand balance [2]
烧碱数据日报-20251017
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 04:02
Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic liquid caustic soda market has mixed transaction adjustments today. Prices in many regions remain stable. The prices of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong and Hebei are rising steadily, while those in Henan, Anhui, and Chongqing are falling steadily. The mainstream transaction price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 - 890 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of a large local alumina factory is 740 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 1280 - 1380 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day's average price. Traders are advised to continue to wait and see as the long - short game is intense. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - **Raw Salt**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Northwest regions are 200 yuan, 260 yuan, and 200 yuan respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Calcium Carbide**: The prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia are 2830 yuan and 2425 yuan respectively, remaining unchanged [1] - **Liquid Chlorine**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Northwest C are 50 yuan, 81 yuan, and - 50 yuan respectively. The price in Northwest C increased by 50 yuan [1] - **32% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions remain unchanged. The mainstream transaction price in Shandong is 780 - 890 yuan/ton [1] - **50% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions remain unchanged. The mainstream transaction price in Shandong is 1280 - 1380 yuan/ton [1] - **Caustic Soda Flakes**: The prices in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and other regions remain unchanged [1] - **PVC**: The prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia are 4520 yuan and 4380 yuan respectively, remaining unchanged [1] Futures and Related Spreads - **Futures Main Contract**: The closing price is 2453 yuan, up 15 yuan [1] - **Basis**: The basis in Shandong decreased by 15 yuan to 141 yuan, and in Jiangsu decreased by 15 yuan to 516 yuan [1] - **50% Alkali - 32% Alkali Spread**: The spread in Shandong remains unchanged at - 14 yuan [1] - **Caustic Soda Flakes - 50% Alkali Spread**: The spread in Guangdong remains unchanged at 630 yuan [1] - **50% Alkali Regional Spread**: The spread between the East and Shandong remains unchanged at 320 yuan [1] - **Caustic Soda Flakes Regional Spread**: The spreads between Southwest - Inner Mongolia and Southwest - Shandong remain unchanged at 650 yuan and 400 yuan respectively [1] Profit and Electricity Price - **Chlor - Alkali Profit**: The profit in Shandong increased by 49 yuan to 90 yuan, and in the Northwest remains unchanged at 483 yuan [1] - **Electricity Price**: The electricity prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia are 0.75 yuan and 0.5 yuan respectively, remaining unchanged [1]
航运衍生品数据日报-20251016
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 14:56
Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data Shipping Freight Index - The current values of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - West America, SCFIS - West America, SCFI - East America, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1115, 1087, 1460, 862, 2385, 971, 1031, and 1485 respectively, with daily changes of -6.97%, -2.93%, -10.76%, -1.60%, -6.73%, -7.70%, -1.43%, and -9.34% [5]. Futures Contracts - For contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604, the current values are 1306.6, 1450.2, 1120.6, 1708.6, 1463.4, and 1142.0 respectively, with daily changes of -0.93%, 0.01%, -1.37%, 2.06%, -0.07%, and -0.70% [5]. Contract Positions - The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1510, 1115, 11335, 27023, 9822, and 13676 respectively, with daily changes of (31), 14, (1820), (168), 112, and 310 [5]. Monthly Spreads - The current values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads are -588.0, 245.2, and 566.6 respectively, with daily changes of (50.1), 35.5, and 42.5 [5]. Group 2: Market News - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese - origin goods starting from November 1 [5]. - China announced new restrictions on rare - earth and related technology exports and released a new version of the "unreliable entity list" targeting US defense technology companies [5]. - On October 9, Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had reached a peace agreement, with Israel partially withdrawing from Gaza and Hamas releasing remaining hostages [5]. - US customs documents on October 11 outlined new tariffs on certain Chinese products effective from October 14 [5]. - After signing the Gaza agreement, Netanyahu threatened to restart the war if Israel's demands were not met peacefully, and the Israeli middle - level negotiation delegation will stay in Egypt to promote the second - stage agreement [5]. - Trump is expected to visit Israel next Monday, with a "in - and - out" short - visit due to security concerns [5][6]. Group 3: EC Market Analysis Market Overview - The EC market showed a strong and volatile trend. In late October, the overall price increase was called for in the range of 1800 - 2000 (finally settled at 1500 - 1800), and the price increase notice for November is around 2500 [7]. Market Logic - The EC market rebounded significantly due to the Ministry of Commerce's counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. [8]. - These 5 US subsidiaries include one involved in container ship manufacturing, mainly building 2000 - 3000TEU small container ships for Matson's West America route, with little connection to the European route [9]. - Hanwha Shipyard currently has 790,000 TEU of shipping capacity serving the European route, and although these ships are not currently in the sanctions scope, the policy is unclear, and the sanctions scope may expand if Sino - US confrontation escalates [9]. Investment Strategy - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [10].
股指期权数据日报-20251016
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 09:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a daily data analysis of stock index options, including the performance of major stock indexes, trading volume, turnover, and volatility analysis of上证50, 沪深300, and 中证1000 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Stock Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22% to 3912.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.36%, the Beixin 50 rose 1.62%, the Kechuang 50 rose 1.4%, the Wind All - A rose 1.49%, the Wind A500 rose 1.54%, and the CSI A500 rose 1.51%. A - shares traded 2.09 trillion yuan throughout the day, compared with 2.6 trillion yuan the previous day [5]. - **Index Trading Details**: For 上证50, the trading volume was 1571.06 billion, the closing price was 3001.3489, the increase was 1.36%, and the turnover was 4606.2879 billion yuan; for 沪深300, the trading volume was 284.77 billion, the increase was 1.48%, and the closing price was 4037.98; for 中证1000, the trading volume was 7483.449 billion, the increase was 1.50%, and the turnover was 244.85 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation - **Option Volume and Open Interest**: For 上证50, the call option trading volume was 7.77 million, the put option trading volume was 5.50 million, the call option open interest was 3.39 million, and the put option open interest was 1.98 million; for 沪深300, the call option trading volume was 11.08 million, the put option trading volume was 20.11 million, the call option open interest was 10.61 million, and the put option open interest was 9.51 million; for 中证1000, the call option trading volume was 0.94 million, the put option trading volume was 42.12 million, the call option open interest was 14.73 million, and the put option open interest was 15.04 million [3]. - **PCR (Put - Call Ratio)**: The trading volume PCR for 上证50 was 0.70, for 沪深300 was 0.90, and for 中证1000 was 0.98; the open interest PCR for 上证50 was 0.56, for 沪深300 was 0.90, and for 中证1000 was 0.98 [3]. 3.3 Volatility Analysis - **Historical Volatility and Volatility Cone**: The report shows the historical volatility and volatility cones of 上证50, 沪深300, and 中证1000, including the 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, minimum, maximum, and current values, as well as the volatility for different periods (5 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, 120 - day) [3][4]. - **Volatility Smile Curve**: The report also presents the next - month at - the - money implied volatility smile curves for 上证50, 沪深300, and 中证1000 [3][4].
日度策略参考-20251016
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 08:51
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings by Industry - **Macro Finance**: - Stock Index: Bullish in the short term, with potential risks from tariff policy fluctuations [1] - Treasury Bonds: Neutral, with asset shortage and weak economy favorable but short - term central bank warnings on interest rate risks [1] - Precious Metals: Cautiously bullish on short - term rebound, but high - level volatility risks exist [1] - Copper: Bullish, supported by supply disruptions and improved macro - liquidity [1] - Other Metals: Varying degrees of bullish, bearish, or neutral depending on specific market conditions [1] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - Most metals are rated as "Oscillating", with specific market factors influencing short - term trends [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, driven by seasonal demand and supply - demand imbalance [1] - **Black Metals**: - Most products are rated as "Oscillating" or "Weak", with unclear industrial drivers and high inventory in some cases [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - Palm Oil: Mixed signals, with a wait - and - see approach for now [1] - Other products: Varying ratings based on supply - demand, policy, and international trade factors [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Most products are rated as "Oscillating", "Weak", or "Bearish", affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, geopolitical situation, and production status [1] - **Other**: - Shipping: Potential for a rebound at low levels, with expectations of stabilizing [1] 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The market is generally affected by factors such as Sino - US trade friction, central bank policies, and supply - demand dynamics across different industries. Uncertainty persists, leading to a mix of bullish, bearish, and oscillating trends in various sectors [1] - **Specific Industry Drivers**: - In the non - ferrous metals industry, supply disruptions and policy changes are key factors [1] - In the black metals industry, unclear industrial drivers and high inventory are major concerns [1] - In the agricultural products industry, international trade policies, supply - demand balance, and seasonal factors play important roles [1] - In the energy and chemicals industry, geopolitical situation, production capacity, and demand seasonality are significant drivers [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term bullish, but beware of tariff policy fluctuations and pay attention to the potential Sino - US leaders' meeting at the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of the month [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central bank warnings on interest rate risks may limit upward movement [1] - **Precious Metals**: Fed Chairman Powell's dovish remarks boost the rebound, but high - level volatility risks remain [1] - **Copper**: Supply disruptions and improved macro - liquidity support the upward trend [1] - **Other Metals**: Each metal has its own unique supply - demand and market factors influencing its short - term trend [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Most Metals**: Oscillating, affected by factors such as Sino - US trade friction, supply disruptions, and inventory levels [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Bullish, driven by the approaching peak season for new energy vehicles, strong energy storage demand, and overall supply - demand imbalance [1] Black Metals - **Most Products**: Oscillating or weak, with unclear industrial drivers, high inventory, and supply - demand imbalances [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Similar logic, with short - term price exploration not over, but chasing short positions is not advisable [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Mixed signals, with news of Indonesian export regulations favoring far - month contracts, while near - month contracts lack new drivers [1] - **Other Products**: Varying trends based on international trade policies, supply - demand balance, and seasonal factors [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Most Products**: Oscillating, weak, or bearish, affected by factors such as OPEC production policies, geopolitical situation, and demand seasonality [1] - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, etc.**: Each product has its own specific supply - demand and production - related factors influencing its price [1] Other - **Shipping**: Potential for a rebound at low levels, with expectations of stabilizing as it enters the换月节奏 and approaches the full - cost line [1]
蛋白数据日报-20251016
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 06:43
Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the soybean and soybean meal market, covering supply, demand, and inventory aspects [6][7] Group 2: Market Data Basis Data - On October 15, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 13, down 15; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Tianjin was 83, down 35; in Rizhao it was 63, down 15; in Dongguan it was down 15; in Zhanjiang it was 53, down 15; in Fangcheng it was 33, down 15; the basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 127, down 15; MJ - 5 was 177, up 3 [4] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the main contract was 560; RM1 - 5 was 59 [5] Other Data - The US - dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0868; the盘面榨利 was - 215.00 yuan/ton; the 2025 import soybean盘面毛利 was 285 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Supply Analysis - Due to less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas after August, the estimated 2025/26 US soybean yield of 53.5 bushels per acre by USDA may still be lowered; recent less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas is conducive to harvest progress; affected by the US government shutdown, the USDA crop growth report was delayed. As of October 5, the US soybean harvest progress was 38%. Brazilian soybean planting has started, and as of October 4, the sowing rate was 8.2%, much higher than 5.1% last year and close to the five - year average of 9.4%. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, but the domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source is undetermined [6][7] Group 4: Demand Analysis - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the breeding industry is currently in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - term. Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio, and downstream spot goods transactions are good [7] Group 5: Inventory Analysis - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; this week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased and is currently at a high level; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises decreased [7] Group 6: Market Outlook - Due to the repeated emotions in Sino - US trade negotiations and the poor profit of domestic ship - buying and crushing, the ship - buying progress is expected to be affected. In the short term, limited by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the high domestic inventory, the market is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [7]
沥青数据日报-20251016
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 06:35
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, affected by rainfall in some areas of North China and Shandong, terminal demand is suppressed, cost - end support is limited, and the market is waiting and seeing. Traders in these two regions lowered prices, pushing down the average market price. In the East China Zhenjiang area, low - priced resources impact sales. The sales of the main refineries in the South China market are relatively stable, and the asphalt price remains unchanged. In the future, competition among asphalt brands in the northern market will intensify, and prices may be weak in the short - term due to low demand. In the South China market, demand may gradually release with better weather, supporting local prices. The main refineries in East China mainly ship by sea, and prices are expected to remain stable [5] 3. Key Information Summaries 3.1 Asphalt Price Data - **Spot prices**: In different regions, the current spot prices in East China are 3500 - 3720, in Northeast China not mentioned, in North China 3450, in South China 3400, in Northwest China 3980, and in Shandong 3460. Compared with the previous values, the price changes are 0 (- 30) in East China, (- 20) in North China, (- 10) in South China, 0 in Northwest China, and (- 10) in Shandong [1] - **Futures prices**: For asphalt futures contracts such as BU2510, BU2511, BU2512, BU2601, and BU2602, the current values are 3470, 3154, 3250, 3184, and 3164 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the price changes are 0.00%, - 0.41%, - 1.22%, - 0.84%, and - 0.35% respectively [1] 3.2 International News - On October 13, Trump first said he would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese exports to the US, but then said the threat might not be implemented, and the US vice - president signaled willingness to negotiate. Market selling is restricted by the negotiation intention, and the short - term outlook depends on the negotiation results [1] - China's crude oil imports in September increased by 3.9% year - on - year to 1125 barrels per day, and refinery operating rates remained at a high level, supporting demand [2] - Trump said he might provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine if the Russia - Ukraine conflict is not resolved. Medvedev warned that supplying these missiles "might harm everyone, especially Trump" [2] - On October 13, Hamas released the first batch of seven Israeli hostages, starting a cease - fire agreement in the Gaza conflict, which Trump helped to promote [2] - OPEC's daily crude oil production in September was 2844 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 52.4 million barrels, with Saudi Arabia's daily production increasing by 24.8 million barrels. OPEC +'s daily production was 4305 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 63 million barrels [2]
原油&燃料油数据日报-20251016
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 06:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term due to factors such as uncertain Sino - US trade tariffs, a loose supply - demand situation in the crude oil market, and reduced geopolitical risks. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach for crude oil [3]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure from lukewarm demand and sufficient supply. With international oil prices likely to stay weak, fuel oil lacks strong upward drivers. A short - term wait - and - see strategy is also advised for fuel oil [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Supply - demand situation**: OPEC+ continues its production - increasing policy and reached a principle agreement to slightly increase production in November. From September, crude oil consumption gradually declines, with the global off - peak consumption being 1 - 3 million barrels per day lower than the peak. Geopolitical risks have decreased, which may lead to more crude oil flowing into the market [3]. - **Operation strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see [3]. - **Futures盘面**: SC crude oil closed at 443.7 yuan/barrel, down 4.9 yuan or 1.09%; WTI crude oil was at 58.59 dollars/barrel, unchanged; Brent crude oil was at 62.28 dollars/barrel, unchanged [3]. - **Spread data**: SC - WTI spread decreased by 0.67 yuan/barrel to 3.91 yuan/barrel, a decline of 14.58%; SC - Brent spread decreased by 0.67 yuan/barrel to 0.22 yuan/barrel, a decline of 75.42% [3]. - **Spot price**: Oman crude oil was at 64.25 dollars/barrel, down 1.35 dollars or 2.06%; Russian ESPO was at 59.22 dollars/barrel, down 1.21 dollars or 2.00%; Brent Dtd was at 64.35 dollars/barrel, down 0.7 dollars or 1.08% [4]. - **Fundamental data**: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.89% to 420,261 thousand barrels; US gasoline inventory decreased by 0.73% to 219,093 thousand barrels; US distillate inventory decreased by 1.63% to 121,559 thousand barrels; US production increased by 0.92% to 13,629 thousand barrels per day [4]. Fuel Oil - **Inventory situation**: As of the week of October 8, Singapore's residue fuel oil inventory decreased by 892,000 barrels to 23.669 million barrels. However, the market is still under pressure from demand and supply, and it is expected that the inventory in October will increase due to large supplies received in September [3]. - **Operation strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see [3]. - **Futures盘面**: FU high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,683 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 0.63%; LU low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,155 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan or 1.50% [3]. - **Spread data**: FU - SC spread decreased by 31 yuan/ton to 2 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.88%; LU - SC spread increased by 44 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.63%; LU - FU spread decreased by 31 yuan/ton to 472 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.16% [4]. - **Spot price**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was at 365 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars or 3.18%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was at 435.5 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars or 1.58% [4]. - **Fundamental data**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 1.34% to 23,699 thousand barrels [4].