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纸浆数据日报-20251020
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 03:30
Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Current paper product demand remains stable, with no obvious rebound in paper prices. The positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [12] - As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 207.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The inventory showed a narrow - range de - stocking trend [12] - The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 26 - year Russian needle pulp. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle and high - quality softwood pulp. Maintain the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On October 17, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2605 were 5152, 4856, and 5214 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 0.35%, - 0.91%, and - 0.50%, and week - on - week changes of 0.94%, 1.42%, and 1.32% [6] - The spot prices of softwood pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and hardwood pulp Goldfish were 5500, 5000, and 4250 respectively, with day - on - day changes of 0%, 0%, and 0%, and week - on - week changes of - 0.36%, - 0.99%, and 0% [6] Outer - market Quotes and Import Costs - The outer - market quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Japanese (unclear name), and Chilean Venus were 700, 530, and 590 US dollars respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 2.78%, 3.92%, and 0% [6] - The import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5721, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 2.75%, 3.87%, and 0% [6] Supply - side Data - In August 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 61.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95%; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 125.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.88% [6] - The pulp shipment volume to China was 162 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.50% [6] - On October 16, 2025, the domestic production of hardwood pulp was 23.2 tons, and the domestic production of chemi - mechanical pulp was 23.4 tons [6] Inventory Data - On October 16, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 207.4 tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.7 tons [6] Demand - side Data - In October 2025, the production of offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard was 20.3, 7.9, 28.08, and 34.5 tons respectively [6] Valuation Data - On October 17, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 144, and the Silver Star basis was 644, with quantile levels of 0.866 and 0.878 respectively [6] - The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 221, and the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with quantile levels of 0.285 and 0.555 respectively [6]
宏观金融数据日报-20251020
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 03:30
Group 1: Market Data and Performance - DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a 0.56bp increase, DR007 at 1.41 with a 1.40bp decrease, GC001 at 1.22 with a 15.00bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.46 with a 2.00bp decrease [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 0.10bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.02bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.59 with a 0.82bp decrease, 10 - year treasury at 1.82 with a 1.85bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.02 with a 3.00bp increase [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 6331 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of 182 - day term repurchase operations, with 10210 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, 8000 billion yuan of 91 - day term repurchases, and 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6979 billion yuan [4] - This week, 7891 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 2538 billion, 910 billion, 435 billion, 2360 billion, and 1648 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [5] - The CSI 300 closed at 4514 with a 2.26% decrease, the SSE 50 at 2968 with a 1.70% decrease, the CSI 500 at 7016 with a 2.98% decrease, and the CSI 1000 at 7185 with a 2.92% decrease [5] - IF当月 closed at 4540 with a 1.6% decrease, IH当月 at 2983 with a 1.2% decrease, IC当月 at 7064 with a 2.2% decrease, and IM当月 at 7230 with a 2.3% decrease [5] - IF trading volume was 169431 with a 10.4% increase, IF open interest was 265794 with a 3.3% decrease, IH trading volume was 89212 with a 16.9% increase, IH open interest was 97922 with a 5.7% decrease, IC trading volume was 172400 with a 8.7% increase, IC open interest was 246587 with a 2.6% decrease, and IM trading volume was 290913 with a 16.5% increase, IM open interest was 364222 with a 2.5% increase [5] - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 2.22% to 4514.2, the SSE 50 fell 0.24% to 2967.8, the CSI 500 fell 5.17% to 7016.1, and the CSI 1000 fell 4.62% to 7185.5 [5] - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, only banking (4.9%), food and beverage (0.9%), and transportation (0.4%) rose last week, while electronics (-7.1%), media (-6.3%), automobiles (-6%), communication (-5.9%), and machinery and equipment (-5.8%) led the decline [5] - Last week's A - share daily trading volumes were 21038 billion, 23147 billion, 18835 billion, 17526 billion, and 17598 billion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 1132.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5] Group 2: Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short term, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade policies, market risk appetite may fluctuate [6] - As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel [6] - Key time points to watch include the APEC ministerial meeting from October 29 - 30 and the APEC leaders' summit from October 31 - November 1, so the stock index market may be clearer by the end of the month [6] - Before that, the strategy should focus on risk avoidance, the CSI 300 and SSE 50 may be more resilient, and long - position investors in stock index futures can consider using options for risk hedging [6] Group 3: Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount for the next - month contract is 4.52%, the current - quarter contract is 3.85%, and the next - quarter contract is 2.73% [7] - IH premium/discount for the next - month contract is 1.33%, the current - quarter contract is 0.96%, and the next - quarter contract is 0.34% [7] - IC premium/discount for the next - month contract is 14.77%, the current - quarter contract is 13.04%, and the next - quarter contract is 10.75% [7] - IM premium/discount for the next - month contract is 13.16%, the current - quarter contract is 13.71%, and the next - quarter contract is 12.72% [7]
LPG数据日报-20251017
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 07:07
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The LPG market is oscillating weakly, and its low valuation is expected to be restored [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content International Market - The previous working day's CP converted RMB propane was around 3,512.916 yuan/ton, and butane was around 3,370.98 yuan/ton. Due to tight butane supply and demand, the price difference between CP propane and butane has disappeared, so the butane price trend is stronger than that of propane [4]. - Affected by tariff policies, the international market prices fluctuated widely, and the average price ended up falling. The market's concern has risen again, and Chinese importers generally turned to purchasing US resources, causing the discount of non-US resources to China to remain high. As the external market prices fell to relatively low levels, it attracted buyers. Coupled with the strong demand from Sinopec in China, it promoted the recovery of market buying interest and the prices stabilized and rebounded [4]. East China Region - The average price of the civil gas market remained stable at 4,570 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. This week, the East China civil gas market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a general overall atmosphere. In the later part of the week, due to the increase in Shandong's supply and the impact of warehouse receipts, the prices continued to decline, and the negative effects were transmitted southward. Jiangsu's shipments became sluggish, and the prices fell again [4]. - In terms of imported gas, there were limited vessel arrivals at the docks this week, and importers were clearly willing to support the market. The prices were high in the early stage, but as the Shandong prices fell, it affected the shipments at Jiangsu docks. With the decline of domestic gas prices widening the price difference, the imported gas prices showed signs of loosening in the later part of the week. By Thursday, the imported propane price was around 4,650 yuan/ton, and the imported proportional gas price in Zhejiang was between 4,500 - 4,550 yuan/ton [4]. South China Region - The average price of the civil gas market decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 4,570 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day, a decline of -0.44%. This week, the price center of the South China civil gas market continued to decline. The price of etherified C4 increased at low prices and fell at high prices, and the final average price decreased slightly [4]. - Affected by the decline of both international oil prices and the LPG external market, the market's bearish sentiment increased, and the overall price center moved down. Although the arrival discount remained high and importers were strongly willing to support the prices, the downstream demand continued to be weak. In terms of industrial gas, due to the improvement in demand in the Zhanjiang area, the inventory pressure was relieved, and the prices rebounded at low prices. In the Guangxi area, there was an expectation of subsequent supply increase, and the prices declined from high levels. The prices in the Guangzhou area also decreased. After each unit adjusted the prices according to its own situation, the regional price difference narrowed, and currently, production and sales were basically balanced [4]. Shandong Region - The average price of the civil gas market remained stable at 4,450 yuan/ton; in terms of etherified C4, the market average price decreased by 28 yuan/ton to 4,370 yuan/ton, a decline of -0.64% [4]. - This week, the Shandong civil gas market first remained stable and then declined, and the price center clearly moved down. At the beginning of the week, although the warehouse receipt resources were gradually flowing out, compared with the refinery resources, the prices were not significantly impacted, and it relied on the strong support of downstream chemical demand, showing a stable trend. However, as the unexpected increase in the refinery's external supply in the province affected the market, the supply of civil gas resources in the market gradually increased, while the downstream demand did not improve further. The situation of oversupply in the market became more prominent. In the middle and later stages, the market was under pressure and the prices decreased. The low level of the international LPG market increased the market's wait-and-see sentiment. At the end of the week, the market was competing to sell goods, and the trading atmosphere improved limitedly under the sentiment of buying on rising and not on falling. The prices fell to a new low for the year [4]. Futures Market - The closing price of the domestic futures market's main contract increased by 120 yuan/ton to 4,268 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day, a rise of 2.89%. The settlement price increased by 58 yuan/ton to 4,199 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.40%. The open interest increased by 2,324 lots to 170,702 lots, a rise of 1.38% [4]. - The price differences between different contract months and varieties also showed different degrees of changes, such as the PG2511 - PG2512 price difference increased by 1 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.78%; the PG2511 - PG2601 price difference increased by 24 yuan/ton to 237 yuan/ton, a rise of 11.27% [4].
商品期权数据日报-20251017
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 07:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View No clear core view can be extracted from the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Historical Volatility - For furnace aluminum, the main price is 20975, and the price of PVC increases by 0.48%. The historical volatilities HV20, HV40, HV60, and HV120 are 10.75%, 10%, 8%, and 18.26% respectively [5]. - For Shanghai zinc, the main price is 21940, and the price of plastic decreases by 0.25%. The historical volatilities are 14.99%, 0.30%, 16.54%, and 12% respectively [5]. - For other commodities such as copper, methanol, gold, etc., similar historical volatility and price change data are provided [5]. Implied Volatility - For polycrystalline silicon, the main flat - value IV is 39% and 69% [9]. - For propylene, the main flat - value IV is 17% and 5% [9]. - Similar implied volatility data are given for other commodities like urea, short - fiber, etc. [9]. Main Flat - Value IV Quantile No detailed data summary is provided in the given content for this part. Historical Trends - For industrial silicon and iron ore, historical trends of main closing price, main flat - value implied volatility, and HV60 are presented from 2024 - 10 to 2025 - 08 [12]. - Similar historical trend data are also shown for soybean oil, rapeseed oil, crude oil, and rubber [12].
国贸期货:PVC数据日报-20251017
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:39
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - Due to high macro - policy uncertainty, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Market - Domestic PVC powder market prices had a narrow - range adjustment today, with mainstream markets seeing small increases and decreases, and price fluctuations mostly within 0 - 10 yuan/ton. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average, and overall spot trading was light. The prices of 5 - type calcium carbide materials were as follows: in East China, the mainstream spot cash self - pick - up price was 4560 - 4670 yuan/ton; in South China, it was 4620 - 4690 yuan/ton; in Hebei, the spot cash delivered price was 4440 - 4550 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it was 4570 - 4610 yuan/ton [1] 2. Futures Market - The futures market was weak in last night's session and showed a slightly stronger oscillation today. Traders' early fixed - price quotes changed little, and some basis quotes strengthened slightly, but high - price transactions were difficult [1] 3. Price Changes - Coal ash (Q5500) increased from 728 to 736, with a change of 18; Fengli Jixue futures increased from 4677 to 4694, with a change of 17; FAS Houston increased from 551 to 571, with a change of 20 [1] 4. Basis - The basis in East China decreased from - 97 to - 114, a change of - 17; in South China, it decreased from - 17 to - 34, a change of - 17; in another area, it decreased from - 117 to - 134, a change of - 17 [1] 5. Profit - The profit of Shandong calcium carbide method remained at - 1240, and that of Inner Mongolia calcium carbide method remained at - 969 [1] 6. External Market - CFR China remained at 706, and CFR Southeast Asia remained at 649 [1] 7. Operating Rates - The operating rate of calcium carbide method increased from 82.13% to 82.94%, a change of 0.81%; the operating rate of ethylene method increased from 79.75% to 81.9%, a change of 2.15%; the total operating rate increased from 81.42% to 82.63%, a change of 1.21% [1] 8. Inventory - East China's inventory increased from 48.84 to 50.27, a change of 1.43; South China's inventory increased from 4.93 to 5.43, a change of 0.5; social inventory increased from 53.77 to 55.7, a change of 1.93 [1]
日度策略参考-20251017
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:36
Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for some commodities are as follows: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks [1]. - Gold is supported to remain at a high level due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade uncertainty, and the Fed's expected rate cut in October, but short - term high - level volatility risks should be noted. Silver price has risen and then fallen again, with increased short - term high - level volatility risks [1]. - Although global trade frictions suppress copper prices, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to ongoing disturbances in copper mine supply and improved domestic and foreign macro - liquidity [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and its price is expected to fluctuate. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and its fundamentals are weak, pressuring the spot price [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces correction risks due to Sino - US trade frictions. Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, nickel prices are affected by macro factors in the short term, and stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, policies, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends of fluctuation [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are also affected by multiple factors including production, trade policies, and market demand, with different price trends [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong - side fluctuation, beware of tariff policy changes, focus on the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank reminds of interest - rate risks [1] - Gold: Supported at a high level, short - term high - level volatility risks [1] - Silver: Short - term high - level volatility risks increased, expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1] - Electrolytic aluminum: Mixed fundamentals, price to fluctuate [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, price under pressure, focus on cost support [1] - Zinc: Short - term pressure, support if export window opens [1] - Nickel: Short - term macro - driven fluctuation, high - inventory suppression exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term fluctuation, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1] - Tin: Long - term low - buying opportunities, short - term facing callback risks [1] - Industrial silicon: Southwest in the wet season, northwest resuming production [1] - Polysilicon: Production increase in October, supply - demand imbalance [1] - Lithium carbonate: High demand in new energy fields [1] Black metals - Rebar: Lack of clear industrial drivers, low valuation, not recommended for directional trading [1] - Iron ore: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - Glass: Supply surplus, price under pressure [1] - Soda ash: Follow glass, price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: Price bottom - finding not over, temporarily wait and see [1] - Coke: Similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Near - month contracts lack new drivers, wait for production - reduction and inventory - clearance cycle [1] - Soybean oil: Cost pressure and de - inventory expectation coexist, wait and see [1] - Rapeseed oil: Possible negative speculation, unilateral wait - and - see, inter - month positive spread expected to rise [1] - Cotton: Short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term pressure with new cotton listing [1] - Sugar: High sugar - making ratio may be adjusted, limited upside space [1] - Corn: Short - term limited rebound, pay attention to grain sales [1] - Ethanol: Tax - included ethanol close to raw sugar price, sugar - making advantage weakened [1] - Logs: Fundamentals declined, wait and see [1] - Live pigs: Supply increase, price outlook weak [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and demand decline [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish, follow crude oil in the short term [1] - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, demand may be over - estimated [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by trade policies and supply increase [1] - BR rubber: Supply is loose, downstream demand is weak [1] - PTA: Production decline due to plant maintenance [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory, but price under pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices returning, price - related changes in delivery willingness [1] - Urea: Limited upside space, cost - end support [1] - PVC: Supply pressure, price to fluctuate weakly [1] - Alumina: Short - term price bearish, medium - term bullish [1] - LPG: Suppressed by supply and demand factors [1] - Container shipping: Possible low - level rebound [1]
橡胶产业数据日报-20251017
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Rubber shows an oscillating performance. The supply and demand fundamentals of rubber remain relatively stable, with normalizing weather in production areas and an expected loosening supply. As of October 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 0.77 million tons or 0.7% from the previous period. The downstream tire factory's operating rate will gradually recover after the holiday. In the short term, macro - logic is dominant, and rubber may continue to oscillate under the influence of external macro factors. The trading strategy is to temporarily wait and see on a single - side basis, hold a small bottom - position for the arbitrage of going long on Br/NR and short on RU, and also pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on NR and short on the mixed rubber [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures盘面 - Domestic futures: RU主力 rose from 14895 to 14900 (+5), NR主力 rose from 12235 to 12315 (+80), and BR主力 rose from 10895 to 11135 (+240). - Foreign futures: Tocom RSS3 decreased from 311.8 to 311.5 (-0.3), and Sicom TF remained unchanged at 169.0 [3] Futures Spread - Inter - period spread: For example, RU2605 - RU2601 changed from 0 to - 10, NR主力 - 次主力 decreased from 40 to - 50, and BR主力 - 次主力 increased from 60 to 85. - Inter - variety spread: RU - NR decreased from 2660 to 2585 (-75), RU - BR decreased from 4000 to 3765 (-235), and NR - BR decreased from 1340 to 1180 (-160). - Inter - market spread: RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) increased from 27 to 29 (+2), and NR - Sicom TF ($) increased from 27 to 38 (+11) [3] Raw Material Prices - Thailand: The price of smoked sheet rubber increased from 57.19 to 57.39 (+0.20), the price of glue remained unchanged at 54.10, and the price of cup rubber increased from 49.65 to 50.00 (+0.35). - Hainan and Yunnan: The price of Hainan glue (concentrated latex) increased from 13400 to 13600 (+200), and other prices remained relatively stable [3] Factory Costs and Profits - Full - latex delivery profit: In Hainan, it decreased from - 2006 to - 2199 (-193), and in Yunnan, it increased from - 486 to - 479 (+1). - Concentrated latex production profit: In Thailand, it decreased from 660 to 632 (-29), and in Hainan, it decreased from - 114 to - 144 (-30). - Smoked sheet and 20 - grade rubber gross profit: Thailand's 20 - grade rubber decreased from 167 to 51 (-116), and domestic 9710 remained unchanged at 450 [3] Domestic Spot - Light - colored rubber: The prices of old full - latex and Vietnamese 3L remained unchanged, while the prices of Thai clay and Malaysian mixture increased by 80. - Dark - colored rubber: The price of Thai standard decreased by 5, and the price of domestic standard II remained unchanged. - Latex: The price of Shanghai: Hainan bulk increased by 100. - Synthetic rubber: The price of butadiene rubber BR9000 increased by 100, and the price of styrene - butadiene rubber SBR1502 increased by 50 [3] Overseas Spot - The prices of Thai - mixed CIF, Malaysian - mixed CIF, Thai - standard CIF, Malaysian - standard CIF, and Indian - standard CIF all increased by 10 [3] Futures - Spot Spread - RU spread: RU - Thai - mixed decreased from 295 to 220 (-75), RU - old full - latex increased from 595 to 600 (+5), and RU - Vietnamese 3L increased from - 55 to - 50 (+5). - NR spread: NR - Thai - standard delivery profit increased from - 722 to - 689 (+33), NR - Indian - standard delivery profit increased from - 116 to - 48 (+68), and NR - Malaysian - standard delivery profit increased from - 651 to - 618 (+33) [3] Spot Spread - Variety spread: For example, the price difference between Thai - standard and Thai - mixed ($) remained unchanged at 10, the price difference between Vietnamese 3L and Thai - mixed decreased from 350 to 270 (-80), and the price difference between domestic standard II and Thai - mixed decreased from - 850 to - 930 (-80) [3] Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - Exchange rates: The US dollar index remained unchanged at 98.6659, the US dollar/Chinese yuan decreased from 7.0995 to 7.0968 (-0.003), and other exchange rates remained relatively stable. - Interest rates: SHIBOR - overnight remained unchanged at 1.316, and SHIBOR - F - large increased from 1.414 to 1.419 (+0.005) [3]
原木数据日报-20251017
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:10
Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Log Data Daily Report [3] - Research institution: ITC Futures Research Institute [4] - Analyst: Yang Lulin [4] - Date: October 17, 2025 [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core View - After the holiday, the fundamentals of logs weakened slightly. While port inventories increased slightly, the outbound volume decreased. However, considering the holiday factor, it is necessary to observe whether this phenomenon will continue. Log spot prices rose steadily, mainly driven by knot - free and laminated timber. After a sharp decline, the log futures price is below the delivery cost line, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling [5] Group 4: Price Information Spot Price - In Shandong and Jiangsu, the spot prices of different specifications of radiata pine range from 720 to 800 yuan for different lengths and grades (3.9m - 6m, small A - medium A) [5] Foreign Market Quotation - The price range of radiata pine (4m medium A) in the foreign market is 115 - 117 dollars per JAS cubic meter in October, up 2 dollars from 113 - 115 dollars in September [5] Futures Price - For contract LG2511, the current price is 797 yuan per cubic meter, up 4 yuan from the previous period. For contract LG2601, the current price is 823.5 yuan per cubic meter, up 2.5 yuan from the previous period [5] Downstream Wood Square Price - The price of 4000*50*100 wood squares in Shandong and Jiangsu is 1270 yuan, with no change from the previous period [5] Group 5: Supply and Demand Information Supply - In August 2025, the import volume of New Zealand logs was 130.6 million cubic meters, down from 145.8 million cubic meters in July. The import volume of North American logs was 10.1 million cubic meters, down from 10.6 million cubic meters in July. The import volume of European logs was 14.8 million cubic meters, down from 16.6 million cubic meters in July. From October 6 - 12, the shipment volume from New Zealand to China was 34 million JAS cubic meters, down from 35 million JAS cubic meters from September 22 - 28 [5] Inventory - On October 10, the total inventory was 299 million cubic meters, higher than 286 million cubic meters on September 26. Shandong's inventory was 189 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 88 million cubic meters [5] Demand - On October 10, the daily average outbound volume was 5.73 million cubic meters, lower than 6.56 million cubic meters on September 26. Shandong's outbound volume was 3.44 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 1.79 million cubic meters [5]
国贸期货:LPG数据日报-20251017
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market is oscillating weakly, and the low valuation is expected to be repaired [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On October 11, 2025, the average price of the domestic LPG market dropped by 7 yuan/ton to 4451 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.16%. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 120 yuan/ton to 4268 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.89% [4] International Market - Affected by tariff policies, the international market prices fluctuated widely this week, with the average price finally falling. Due to the tight supply and demand of butane, the price trend of butane is stronger than that of propane. Market concerns have resurfaced, and Chinese importers have generally turned to purchasing US resources, resulting in high discounts for non-US resources to China. As the external market prices have fallen to relatively low levels, it has attracted buyers, and the strong demand from Sinopec has promoted the recovery of market buying interest and price stabilization and rebound [4] East China Region - The average price of the civil gas market remained stable at 4570 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The civil gas market in East China showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week, with the overall atmosphere being average. Affected by the increase in supply from Shandong and warehouse receipts, the prices continued to decline. The price of imported gas was high in the early stage, but it showed signs of loosening in the later stage [4] South China Region - The average price of the civil gas market decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 4570 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day, a decrease of -0.44%. The price center of the civil gas market in South China continued to decline this week, with the final average price slightly falling. Affected by the decline of international oil prices and the external LPG market, the bearish sentiment in the market has increased. Although importers are willing to support prices, the downstream demand remains weak. In terms of industrial gas, prices in different regions have adjusted up and down, and the regional price difference has narrowed, with production and sales basically balanced [4] Shandong Region - The average price of the civil gas market remained stable at 4450 yuan/ton. The average price of etherified C4 decreased by 28 yuan/ton to 4370 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.64%. The civil gas market in Shandong first stabilized and then declined this week, with the price center significantly shifting downward. Due to the unexpected increase in the release of refineries in the province, the market supply exceeded demand, and the market price dropped to a new low for the year [4]
双胶纸数据日报-20251017
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:06
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Double-offset Paper Data Daily Report [3] - Report Date: October 17, 2025 [4] - Researcher: Yang Lulin from the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4] Group 2: Double-offset Paper Futures Data - On October 16, 2025, the price of 0P2601 was 4210, with a daily increase of 0.10% compared to the previous day [5]. - The open interest of the main contract on October 16, 2025, was 1107, a daily decrease of 3.99% [5]. Group 3: Spot Price Data Double-offset Paper - On October 16, 2025, the prices of various double-offset papers in different regions remained stable with no daily or weekly changes, except for Beijing Gaobai Ruixue which also had no changes [5]. Copperplate Paper - The prices of most copperplate papers remained stable on October 16, 2025, but Shandong Chenming Xuetutu decreased by 2.11% week-on-week, and Shandong Taiyang Tianyang decreased by 1.03% week-on-week [5]. Group 4: Papermaking Raw Material Data - On October 16, 2025, the prices of some papermaking raw materials changed. Shandong Needle-leaf Silver Star increased by 0.71% daily and decreased by 0.88% weekly; Shandong Broad-leaf Goldfish increased by 0.71% daily and decreased by 0.88% weekly [6]. Group 5: Double-offset Paper Supply and Demand Data - From August 29, 2025, to October 17, 2025, the production volume, capacity utilization rate, factory inventory, and social inventory of double-offset paper fluctuated [6]. - The production profit of double-offset paper also fluctuated during this period, with the production profit of double-offset paper mainly using chemimechanical pulp being 586.25 on October 17, 2025, and that mainly using broad-leaf pulp being 264 [6]. Group 6: Core Viewpoint - The current spot price of double-offset paper has not stopped falling and stabilizing, and most double-offset papers are still slightly declining. The benefits of the "Golden September and Silver October" have not been reflected. The price of broad-leaf pulp in the raw material end has increased, compressing the production profit of double-offset paper. The production volume has increased due to the resumption of production of Chenming Paper, and the inventory has slightly increased. However, the current capital participation in the futures market is poor, and the overall market is fluctuating. The double-offset paper market is currently in a reasonable operating range, and short-term observation is recommended [7]