| | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/12/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格龈踪 | 2025/12/2 | 4212. 70 | 57. 14 | 4243. 50 | 57.77 | 955. 02 | 13417.00 | 953. 21 | 13425.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据来源: | 2025/12/1 | 4236. 98 | 56. 79 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - Gasoline cracking profit has declined, and gasoline blending performance has weakened. The PX market is firm under multiple factors. The increase in PX price is mainly driven by gasoline blending value support and the stabilization and recovery of by - product benzene price. The PX - naphtha spread has further widened to $256, while the PX - mixed xylene spread is still under pressure, only slightly higher than $100, which restricts the space for increasing efficiency by increasing PX production. Domestic refinery unit maintenance rumors are positive for PX, and some South Korean producers are even considering taking offline toluene - route PX units in December. Domestic PTA manufacturers benefit from India's cancellation of PTA import BIS certification restrictions, and the improved export prospects boost PX procurement sentiment. The strong PX price is significantly beneficial to the PTA market. Currently, the PTA supply side is slightly tightened, while the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable, with the overall load above 90%. Benefiting from the positive adjustment of trade policies in some overseas countries, the export inquiries of polyester products have increased significantly, and the domestic polyester export prospects are optimistic. The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow suit [2]. Data Summary Price and Price Difference - PTA spot price increased from 4710 to 4720, with a change of 10; MEG domestic price decreased from 3901 to 3882, with a change of - 19; PTA closing price decreased from 4762 to 4752, with a change of - 10; MEG closing price decreased from 3882 to 3877, with a change of - 5; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6415 to 6416, with a change of 1; short - fiber basis increased from 64 to 65, with a change of 1; 12 - 1 spread decreased from 104 to 94, with a change of - 10; 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber price difference increased from 1040 to 1041, with a change of 1; East China water bottle chip price increased from 5757 to 5763, with a change of 6; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 5757 to 5763, with a change of 6; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 5857 to 5863, with a change of 6; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained at 10300, with a change of 0; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3882 to 3884, with a change of 2; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained at 16300, with a change of 0; cotton 328 price increased from 14570 to 14590, with a change of 20; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1539 to 1531, with a change of - 8; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price increased from 7090 to 7125, with a change of 35; hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 556 to 589, with a change of 33; primary low - melting - point short - fiber price increased from 7675 to 7680, with a change of 5 [2]. Market Conditions - Short fiber: The price of polyester staple fiber production plants remained stagnant, the price of traders fluctuated horizontally, downstream demand was for rigid procurement, and factory sales were average. The price of 1.56dtex * 38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6180 - 6500 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6300 - 6620 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6220 - 6400 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery. - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5750 - 5880 yuan/ton, with the average price remaining the same as the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated narrowly, most supply - side offers remained unchanged, market transactions were limited, downstream terminals were cautious in following up, the market trading atmosphere was relatively light, and the market negotiation focus was temporarily stable [2]. Operating Rate and Sales - The direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, with a change of 0.95%; polyester staple fiber sales remained at 50.00%, with a change of 0.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained at 66.00%, with a change of 0.00%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained at 51.10%, with a change of 0.00% [2][3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On December 1st, most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with precious metals leading the gains, while agricultural products showed mixed performance. Industrial products mostly rose, and agricultural products had both gains and losses [1] - The focus of the steel futures market in December will shift from reality to macro - expectations, and short - term market sentiment is favorable [1] - The rising trend of basic metals is supported by multiple factors, and the fundamentals of aluminum are relatively stable [1] - The geopolitical situation and OPEC's production plan affect the energy - chemical products market, and the pressure on oil prices may increase if Russian oil returns to normal [1] - The short - term soybean market lacks new drivers, and palm oil prices may rise if the减产 logic is confirmed [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Black Series - All black series commodities rose. The recent demand for finished products improved, speculative demand rebounded significantly, and inventory continued to decline. Last week, the inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 2.25% to 1400.81 million tons, reaching a 3.5 - month low, while production increased by 0.68% to 85.71 million tons, and apparent demand slightly decreased by 0.69% to 88 million tons, still higher than the same period last year [1] Basic Metals - Most basic metals rose. The price of copper broke through the previous high, and the upward trend is supported by multiple factors in the medium term. The price of aluminum fluctuated upward, with low inventory and resilient demand [1] Energy - Chemical Products - Most energy - chemical products rose. International oil prices pulled up strongly in Asian electronic trading, and the domestic crude - oil series mostly rose. Geopolitical contradictions remain, and OPEC plans to maintain the current production plan. The pressure on oil prices will increase if Russian oil returns to normal [1] Oilseeds and Oils - Most oilseeds and oils rose. The price of US soybeans declined, and the domestic soybean meal market lacks new drivers. Palm oil prices are supported by seasonal production reduction expectations, and the price may rise if the reduction logic is confirmed [1] Index Changes - The comprehensive index of Guomao Commodities rose by 1.13% from 2200 to 2224.82 [1] - The daily consumption index rose by 0.85% from 1587.47 to 1601.03 [1] - The Guomao Black Commodity Index rose by 1.12% from 1700.99 to 1720.10 [1] - The Guomao Energy - Chemical Index decreased by 0.05% from 575.99 to 575.72 [1] - The Guomao Oilseeds and Oils Index rose by 0.03% from 2124.65 to 2125.19 [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Adopt a unilateral range trading strategy; consider participating in cash-and-carry arbitrage for hot-rolled coils and use options strategies to assist spot procurement and sales [5]. - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Investment clients should short on rallies, and industrial clients can use accumulating options to protect their spot exposure [5]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Speculators should focus on buying far-month contracts at low prices [5]. - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to run slightly stronger, with prices fluctuating in a narrow range. There may be some room for a decline in iron ore production in December, and attention should be paid to the subsequent winter storage replenishment drive [3]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are expected to be under pressure and weaken due to the over - supply situation, despite the strengthening cost support [5]. - The first round of coke price cuts has been fully implemented, but the coking coal and coke futures have shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices, considering the possible downstream replenishment in mid - to - late December [5]. - Iron ore is facing significant pressure at the upper end of the range. Due to the expected increase in inventory and the decline in steel mill profitability, it is advisable to short on rallies [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Monday, both futures and spot prices rose, and trading volume increased. In December, focus on macro - trading expectations, such as the US interest rate cut expectations and China's Central Economic Work Conference [3]. - In the industrial sector, the seasonal off - season has not yet formed a consistent negative narrative. The inventory and production pressure of hot - rolled coils are prominent, which restricts the upside of prices and market participants' willingness to hold inventory. However, funds are not actively shorting steel prices due to low steel mill profitability [3]. - After December, there may be some appropriate inventory replenishment in the industrial sector, providing support at low prices. The iron ore production may decline in December, and then attention should be paid to the start of the winter storage replenishment drive [3]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have rebounded with the black - metal sector, but the driving force is still insufficient [4]. - The steel price is under pressure, steel mill profits are shrinking, iron ore production is decreasing, and direct demand is expected to weaken. With the arrival of the off - season for terminal demand, the negative feedback pressure is gradually accumulating [5]. - Alloy factories have poor profits, but production remains high, and there is insufficient motivation for self - reduction or production control. The medium - term over - supply pressure remains high, and inventory and warehouse receipts are accumulating [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, the coking coal auction failure rate is high, and most transaction prices have fallen. Affected by the futures rebound, some Mongolian coal traders' quotes are temporarily stable, but market trading is average [5]. - In the futures market, on the first trading day of December, market risk appetite is good. With many domestic meetings in December, market expectations are high. Although the first - round coke price cuts have been implemented, the previous low points in the futures market have priced in 3 - 4 rounds of price cuts. With the increase in risk appetite, coking coal and coke futures have shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding [5]. - The steel data is still good, the apparent demand is seasonally weak but still resilient, production has increased, and the de - stocking slope is similar to the same period. The industrial contradictions are not prominent. Coking coal prices are weak due to the slowdown in downstream replenishment, but there are still fluctuations on the supply side [5]. Iron Ore - Iron ore has reached the upper end of the range - bound trading. In the short term, the arrival volume has increased, and the subsequent shipment volume is expected to remain stable, with no significant unexpected fluctuations [5]. - In the medium term, inventory will continue to accumulate under pressure. Some steel mills in southern China are facing increased losses and weakening demand, leading to maintenance. The steel mill iron ore production has slightly decreased to 268 million tons (-1.6). Steel mill profitability is affecting production willingness, and it is expected that subsequent fluctuations will mainly come from steel mill production cuts, which will lead to a continuous increase in port inventory [5]. - Due to inventory pressure, it is difficult for iron ore to break through the upper end of the range, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The market's core focus is on demand changes, with weekly demand essentially stable, providing price support. In the medium - term, due to the ongoing release of energy storage demand, prices are bullish, but there is a callback pressure on prices in the short - term [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Lithium Compound Prices - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 94,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 91,900 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 1,190 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Mica and Phosphorus Lithium Alum Stone Prices - Lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,665 yuan, lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,600 yuan, phosphorus lithium alum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 9,125 yuan, and phosphorus lithium alum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 10,525 yuan [2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 39,485 yuan, up 145 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 161,800 yuan, up 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 144,600 yuan, up 200 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 144,750 yuan, up 100 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,450 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.1 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 2,590 yuan, up 80 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 140 yuan, down 60 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 440 yuan, down 300 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 115,968 tons, with a decrease of 2,452 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 41,984 tons, with a decrease of 2,452 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 49,660 tons, with an increase of 1,780 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 8,222 tons, with an increase of 2,781 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 95,970 yuan, and the profit is - 2,927 yuan; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 94,750 yuan, and the profit is - 4,016 yuan [3] Industry News - This week, lithium carbonate production decreased by 265 tons and inventory decreased by 2,452 tons [3] - The installed capacity of new energy storage in China exceeds 100 million kilowatts, 30 times that at the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan, accounting for over 40% of the global total installed capacity [3] - During this year's peak summer period, the peak call of new energy storage in China exceeded 30 million kilowatts, 1.3 times the full - load power of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station [3] - The market expects that the mining license for Ningde Times' Xiakeng Mine will be issued in mid - January at the latest and possibly in December at the earliest, and its impact on prices will gradually decrease [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Southeast Asian floods have limited impact on palm oil, with potential negative expectation gaps [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - On December 1, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged compared to November 28, 2025, at 8710, 8670, and 8570 respectively [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu increased by 50 on December 1, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, reaching 8470, 8610, and 8620 respectively [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu decreased by 30 on December 1, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, reaching 10080, 10130, and 10330 respectively [1] Futures Data - On December 1, 2025, the spread between the main contracts of soybean oil and palm oil was - 364, an increase of 18 compared to November 28, 2025 [1] - The spread between the main contracts of rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1482, a decrease of 31 compared to November 28, 2025 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 352; the soybean oil warehouse receipts increased by 5469 to 5469; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 110 to 3855 [1] Important Information - Indonesia - Indonesia's GAPKI believes that floods in Sumatra have not had a significant impact on palm oil production [1] - From January to October 2025, Indonesia exported a total of 19.49 million tons of crude and refined palm oil, a 7.83% increase compared to the same period last year. In October, 1.91 million tons of palm oil were exported, up from 1.38 million tons in September [1] Important Information - Malaysia - According to SPPOMA, the average yield per unit of palm oil in Malaysia in November decreased by 0.2% compared to the same period last month [1] - According to ITS, from November 1 - 30, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 19.7% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 20.5%; from November 1 - 15, exports decreased by 15.5%; from November 1 - 10, exports decreased by 12.8% [1] - According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 30, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 15.9% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 14%; from November 1 - 15, exports decreased by 10%; from November 1 - 10, exports decreased by 10% [1] Other Information - In September, the U.S. usage of soybean oil for biofuel production rose to 1.053 billion pounds, up from 1.041 billion pounds in August [1] - In the 2025/26 season, the overall growth of Brazilian soybeans indicates that the yield potential in most regions will be lower than in the 2024/25 season. The current sowing progress is 86.97%, compared to 89.54% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 85.13% [2] - As of the week ending October 16, the net sales of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 1.108 million tons, in line with expectations, up from 0.785 million tons the previous week; the net sales for the 2026/2027 season were 0 tons, down from 0.1 million tons the previous week. The export shipments of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 1.73 million tons, up from 0.693 million tons the previous week [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report Core Views of the Report - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment this year, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of a new main line. The central Huijin's support provides a buffer, and the downside risk of the index is generally controllable. The recent market adjustment offers a layout opportunity for the index's further rise next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1] - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, improving the macro - sentiment, which has an impact on various commodities Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The recent market adjustment provides a layout opportunity for the index's rise next year. Traders can gradually build long positions during the adjustment and use the discount structure of index futures to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1] - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the market sentiment is positive, and the industrial side provides support, so the price is running strongly [1] - **Aluminum**: The recent industrial drive is limited, but the macro - sentiment is positive, leading to a price rebound [1] - **Alumina**: The domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line. Attention should be paid to the change in ore prices [1] - **Zinc**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the macro - sentiment is improving. The reduction in processing fees in December led to a production cut of over 30,000 tons, improving the fundamentals and supporting the price. It is oscillating strongly in the short term but faces upward pressure [1] - **Nickel**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, and the macro - sentiment is warming. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. The nickel price has rebounded after position reduction. In the short term, it may oscillate with the macro - situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range and consider a light - position long - nickel short - stainless - steel strategy. In the medium - to - long - term, primary nickel remains in an oversupply situation [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, and the macro - sentiment is warming. The raw material price has stopped falling. In the short term, it is oscillating. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and consider a light - position long - nickel short - stainless - steel strategy. Pay attention to the opportunity of selling at high levels for hedging [1] - **Tin**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, and the macro - sentiment is improving. Due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, the price is rising. However, considering the demand pressure, be cautious when chasing high. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still bullish. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low levels during the callback [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: Affected by the silver squeeze and the high probability of a December interest - rate cut, the price may run strongly [1] - **Silver**: The squeeze sentiment is fermenting, and the price is rising strongly. It is bullish in the short term, but be vigilant against high volatility [1] - **Platinum**: Affected by the silver squeeze, the price is expected to run strongly in the short term. The domestic futures price still has a premium over the foreign market, so the volatility may be relatively large [1] - **Palladium**: Affected by the silver squeeze, the price is expected to run strongly in the short term. The domestic futures price is higher than the foreign market. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading. The medium - term long - platinum short - palladium arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: The northwest production capacity is resuming, and the southwest start - up is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term, and the terminal installation is increasing marginally in the fourth quarter [1] - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule decreased in November, and there was a joint production cut in the organic silicon industry. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver goods [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production and increasing production. The macro - drive is strengthening in December, providing some rebound momentum [1] Building Materials and Steel - **Rebar**: The macro - drive is strengthening in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for the entry of basis positive - arbitrage positions. Do not chase high for unilateral trading, and appropriate participation in spot - futures positions is recommended [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, the macro - drive in December provides rebound momentum, and basis positive - arbitrage positions can be rolled and participated in. Do not chase high for unilateral trading [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. The downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December. For the strategy, take a short - term view for unilateral trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term. Cash - out the short - hedging positions [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but the short - term price is driven by sentiment and fluctuates strongly. Soda ash follows glass, but the upward price resistance is relatively large [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1] - **Rapeseed**: The industry is optimistic about the supplement of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. Consider short - selling opportunities [1] - **Cotton**: The cotton market is currently in a situation of "support but no drive". In the future, pay attention to the central No. 1 document's tone on direct - subsidy prices and cotton - planting areas in the first quarter of next year, the intention of cotton - planting areas next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the peak season [1] - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has changed from shortage to surplus, and the raw sugar price is under pressure. The domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased compared with the same period last year, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to be under pressure and follow the raw sugar [1] - **Grain and Oil Crops**: The short - term replenishment demand of downstream low - inventory cannot be met in time due to logistics and weather factors, resulting in a phased supply - demand mismatch. The spot price is firm, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [1] - **Soybean Meal**: The Chinese procurement demand supports the US market. The domestic market is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term. Pay attention to the South American weather. If there is weather speculation, it will be beneficial for unilateral trading and the spot basis [1] - **Paper Pulp**: There have been cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new warehouse receipts recently. The recovery of the demand side remains to be verified, and it is oscillating in the short term [1] - **Logs**: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but it has been priced in the market. The profit - loss ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline in the market is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live Pigs**: The recent spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1] - **Fuel Oil**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The demand for catch - up work during the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is relatively high [1] - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material cost provides strong support, the basis between futures and spot is at a low level, and the middle - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1] - **BR Rubber**: The support of butadiene price is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a bullish expectation to the market. The supply price of mainstream butadiene rubber has been significantly reduced, but rubber factories still have profits and strong processing willingness. The high - inventory and loose fundamentals still suppress the upward price movement, but the current synthetic valuation is low. Pay attention to the subsequent rebound range [1] - **PTA**: OPEC's production increase is slowing down, the US's action expectation on Venezuela is wavering. The domestic PTA manufacturers' export prospects have improved, boosting the PX procurement sentiment [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory is increasing, and the price is falling. The coal price is falling, and the domestic cost support for ethylene glycol continues to weaken. The domestic device commissioning expectation strongly suppresses the rise of ethylene glycol [1] - **Short - Fiber**: The price of PTA has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has also strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1] - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US gasoline demand has weakened, the price of blending oil has decreased, and the cost support for styrene has weakened [1] - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from the anti - internal - roll and the cost side [1] - **Propylene**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the operating load is at a high level, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the high - level propylene monomer provides strong cost support [1] - **PVC**: The market is returning to fundamentals. There will be fewer subsequent overhauls, new production capacity will be released, the supply will increase, the demand will weaken, and the orders are not good [1] - **Caustic Soda**: Some alumina plants in Guangxi have started to deliver goods, and some alumina plants have delayed production. The delivery rhythm has slowed down. There will be fewer subsequent overhauls. There is a pressure of inventory accumulation in Shandong caustic soda, and the price of liquid chlorine is high. The absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of a squeeze [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the logic of loose fundamentals. CP/FEI has recently rebounded. The ethylene device of Maoming Petrochemical in South China is planned to be overhauled, and there is an expectation of an increase in civilian supply from now to January. The combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth, with no inventory pressure. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a supplementary decline. Pay attention to the rise of the near - month price affected by natural gas and the decline of the far - month spread [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: The price increase in December was less than expected, the peak - season price - increase expectation was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report In the short term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium to long term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weakening oscillatory trend [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - On December 1, 2025, the prices of most energy - chemical products remained stable, with only a few showing minor changes. For example, the price of Sichuan - Chongqing liquefied gas decreased by 10 yuan to 4120 yuan, and the international natural gas price dropped by 0.09 to 10.32. The price of methanol in Shandong increased by 10 yuan to 2180 yuan, and the price of MTBE rose by 20 yuan to 4910 yuan [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production increased by 460 to 290915, and the domestic operating rate rose by 0.14 to 89.66%. The international operating rate remained unchanged at 63.22%, and the arrival volume at the port was stable at 22.54 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise and port inventories of methanol remained unchanged, at 373712 and 1363500 respectively [1]. Demand - The order backlog of methanol remained stable at 230710. The operating rates of most downstream products remained unchanged, with only the operating rate of some coal - based methanol production processes showing a decline. For example, the operating rate of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol decreased by 21 to 2207, and that of Shandong coal - based methanol decreased by 21 to 2457 [1]. Associated Product Prices - Most associated product prices remained stable, with only the price of MTBE increasing by 20 yuan to 4910 yuan [1].

| 库存与仓单 | | 镍 锡 | 254364 3160 | | -0. 16 0. 00 | 244506 2780 | | 3.87 12.03 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 500 | | | | | 库存指标 | | 期货库存 | 変化 (%) | | 仓車 | | 变化 (%) | | | | | | | 铜 | 97930 | | -11.46 | 31495 | | -10. 64 | | | | | | | 锌 | 95916 | | -4. 42 | 65778 | | -2. 72 | | | | | | SHFE (吨) | 铝 | 115277 | | -6. 82 | 66833 | | -0. 15 | -1000 | | | | | | 镍 | 40782 | | 2. 48 | 32722 | | -1.76 | | | | | | | 锡 | ୧356 | | 2. 09 | 6290 | | 0. 4 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report views the overall situation as oscillating, with macro and cost factors being bullish and weak domestic demand being bearish [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost - The prices of pulverized coal, anthracite small pieces, and natural gas remained unchanged at 465.00, 980.00, and 4040.00 respectively from November 28 to December 1, 2025 [1] Price - Domestic prices in regions such as Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and others increased, with the largest increase of 30.00. International prices such as China FOB, Middle East FOB, and Southeast Asia CFR decreased, with the largest decrease of 6.00. The price in Brazil CFR remained unchanged [1] Inventory - Factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream sample inventory all remained unchanged at 136.39, 10.00, and 30800.00 respectively [1] Supply - Daily production was 203380.00, and the overall开工率 was 84.10. The开工率 of coal - based and gas - based production also remained unchanged [1] Demand - The开工率 of compound fertilizer, melamine, formaldehyde, etc. remained unchanged. The待发订单 was 6.65 and also remained unchanged [1] Profit - The profits of fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and natural gas - based production remained unchanged. The prices of liquid ammonia and compound fertilizer increased by 50.00 and 30.00 respectively [1] Associated Products - The prices of melamine remained unchanged, while the prices of liquid ammonia, compound fertilizer, and methanol increased by 50.00, 30.00, and 30.00 respectively [1] Futures - The结算价 decreased by 4.00, the基差 increased by 22.00, the成交量 decreased by 64477.00, the持仓量 decreased by 4195.00, and the仓 - car quantity increased by 350.00 [1]