1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Long - term bearish on zinc (ZN) [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in Q3 2025, but there are significant differences among officials. The short - term interest - rate cut path is uncertain. In the medium - to - long - term, the global monetary policy is expected to be loose, which will support the non - ferrous metals sector. Meanwhile, China's economic pressure is emerging, and policy support is urgently needed. Attention should be paid to the policy introduction during the 15th Five - Year Plan in Q4 [1][3][110] - The current domestic zinc ingot production is approaching the threshold, with limited incremental output in Q4. Demand is also mediocre. The supply - surplus pattern of zinc fundamentals is expected to continue, suppressing the upside space of zinc prices. However, the downside space of zinc is limited. The Fed's restart of the interest - rate cut cycle and the expected global liquidity loosening support the non - ferrous metals sector, and the waiting - to - be - repaired internal - external price ratio also limits the lower limit of SHFE zinc. It is expected that the center of zinc prices will move down slightly with small fluctuations in Q4 [5][111][113] - Unilateral trading has low cost - effectiveness. Pay attention to short - allocation opportunities within the sector. The contango/backwardation spread maintains the reverse - arbitrage logic, but the space is limited. In addition, for internal - external trading, pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage opportunities when the internal inventory is transferred overseas [2][113] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Trend Review**: In Q3 2025, the prices of SHFE zinc and LME zinc showed a divergent trend. SHFE zinc showed an inverted "V" shape, while LME zinc oscillated upwards. The price fluctuations were affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, labor strikes at refineries, and inventory trends [6] - **Spread and Premium/Discount Changes**: In June 2025, the zinc social inventory started to accumulate, and the basis was quickly adjusted downwards, turning into a discount at the end of July. As of September 22, the average spot premium/discount in Shanghai dropped to - 60 yuan/ton. The domestic basis is at a low level in recent years, while the LME basis is at a high level. In the future, the domestic spot is likely to maintain a discount pattern. Pay attention to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [12] 3.2 Macro Aspects - **US**: The interest - rate cut cycle restarted, but there are differences among Fed officials, and the interest - rate cut pace may be cautious. In the short - term, the interest - rate cut is in line with market expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to promote global liquidity release and support the non - ferrous metals sector. However, the US economic recession probability still exists as the non - farm payroll data was disappointing [18][19][21] - **China**: In Q3, economic data declined significantly. In August, investment, consumption, and production data all declined. Economic pressure is emerging, and policy support is urgently needed. Attention should be paid to the policy introduction during the 15th Five - Year Plan in Q4 [32][34][38] 3.3 Fundamental Overview - **Raw Material End**: - Global zinc ore supply has recovered significantly. In 2025, overseas zinc ore production increased year - on - year, and in Q4, overseas mines may increase production to meet the annual targets. Domestic zinc concentrate production is stable, but northern mines will have seasonal maintenance at the end of Q4. Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level and are expected to continue in Q4 due to winter storage demand [39][41][47] - In Q3 2025, the processing fees of domestic and imported zinc ores showed a divergent trend. The domestic processing fee increase was limited and has reached an inflection point, while the imported processing fee continued to rise. In Q4, the imported processing fee still has room to rise [56][58] - **Smelting End**: - Global refined zinc production decreased in H1 2025, with a significant internal - external divergence. Domestic zinc ingot production increased due to good profits, while overseas refineries had low operating rates due to high costs and low profits [62] - Domestic zinc ingot production is approaching the threshold, with limited incremental output in Q4. Recycled zinc will bring some incremental output, and the key incremental output of primary zinc lies in the Huoshaoyun project, but its production start is slower than expected. Overseas refineries have limited incremental output, and the supply of overseas zinc ingots is expected to remain tight. China's refined zinc imports decreased in 2025, and the zinc ingot export window is almost open [66][69][71] - **Demand End**: - The downstream demand in the initial stage showed no obvious peak - off - peak characteristics, and there are concerns about future demand. The export of galvanized sheets was affected by the anti - dumping tax in Vietnam, and the future export is expected to be weak [73][80][85] - Infrastructure investment growth slowed down in 2025, but infrastructure is still the key support for zinc consumption. The real estate market is still the main drag on zinc consumption, but the demand for zinc may improve slightly in Q4. The home appliance industry is expected to weaken due to the shortage of national subsidies and the "de - stocking" in the overseas market. The automobile industry maintained high growth in production and sales in Q3, and the demand for zinc is expected to be good in the peak season [88][91][100] - **Inventory**: Since June 2025, the domestic zinc ingot social inventory has been accumulating, while the LME zinc inventory has continued to decline rapidly. The internal - external inventory divergence has intensified, and the export window is approaching. If the export window opens, the domestic inventory may be transferred overseas, which will change the inventory divergence trend [104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is bullish on copper (CU) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - level Fed restarted interest rate cuts, improving market liquidity, which is positive for copper prices. The global copper mine supply is tight, and the copper price center of gravity is expected to move up further. However, the terminal demand in the fourth quarter may be weaker than in previous years, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [134][135] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Industry Chain Market Trend Review - In the third quarter, copper prices fluctuated widely with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. In July, copper prices were affected by US tariff policies; in August, they were influenced by the weak US job market and expectations of Fed rate cuts; in September, they were boosted by expectations of Fed rate cuts, supply - side disturbances, and policy changes in domestic renewable resources [7][8] 3.2 Macroeconomic Part 3.2.1 Domestic Economy - China's economic operation faces challenges. In August, the manufacturing PMI improved slightly but remained in the contraction range. Export growth slowed due to global trade frictions, and import growth declined. Credit data in August was lower than expected but improved seasonally compared to July. Economic indicators such as industrial added - value, investment, and consumption continued to decline year - on - year. It is expected that the window for increasing pro - growth policies will open in the fourth quarter [10][13][14][15] 3.2.2 Fed Restarted Interest Rate Cuts - On September 18, the Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and is expected to cut rates by another 50bp this year. The Fed's economic outlook shows an upward adjustment of GDP growth expectations and relatively stable inflation and unemployment expectations [19][20] 3.2.3 US Job Market and Inflation - The US job market is weak. In August, non - farm payrolls increased less than expected, and the unemployment rate reached a new high since 2021. Inflation is relatively stable, with CPI and PCE showing small increases, and the impact of tariffs on inflation is less than expected [27][34][36] 3.2.4 US Economic Resilience - Although the US job market is weak and consumer confidence has declined, retail sales, service PMI, and GDP performance have exceeded expectations, indicating that the US economy still has resilience [40][41][43] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Upstream Raw Materials - Tight Supply at the Mine End - From January to July 2025, global and Chinese copper mine production increased year - on - year, but many major copper mines had production cuts or disruptions this year. Copper mine imports in China increased from January to August, but port inventories remained low, and processing fees remained at a low level of - 40 US dollars/ton [51][52][59] 3.3.2 Mid - stream Smelting - Copper ore processing fees have been at a low level, causing losses for smelters using spot copper ore. However, the increase in sulfuric acid prices has helped smelters using long - term contracts to be close to the break - even point. China's refined copper production has remained high, but it is expected to decline in September due to policy changes in renewable resources. The import window for refined copper has opened, and imports are expected to increase. The supply of scrap copper has become tight due to policy disturbances [62][69][74] 3.3.3 Downstream Copper Consumption - China's copper consumption accounts for about 50% of the global total. In August, the operating rate of downstream copper product enterprises recovered seasonally but with limited amplitude. In terms of terminal demand, power grid investment and new - energy vehicle production maintained high growth rates, while the real estate market continued to cool down, air - conditioner production growth slowed, and the growth rate of new installations in the photovoltaic and wind - power sectors declined significantly. Global copper inventories increased, and the spot premium and price spreads of copper showed certain trends in the third quarter [85][91][109] 3.4 Conclusion and Outlook - The macro - level Fed rate cuts are expected to improve liquidity, and the tight supply of copper mines will support copper prices. However, terminal demand in the fourth quarter may be weak, and supply and demand will remain in a weak pattern. The copper price center of gravity is expected to move up further [134][135]

Market Overview - A-shares fluctuated lower, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 2% and breaking below 3,200 points. Technology stocks pulled back across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.65% at 3,828.11 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.76%, the ChiNext Index dropped 2.6%, the BeiZheng 50 declined 1.81%, the KeChuang 50 decreased 1.6%, the Wind All A fell 1.2%, the Wind A500 dropped 1%, and the CSI A500 declined 1.14%. The total trading volume of A-shares throughout the day was 2.17 trillion yuan, compared with 2.39 trillion yuan the previous day [5] Index Performance Index Trading Volume and Price | Index | Turnover (billion yuan) | Trading Volume (billion) | Closing Price | Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 150.188 | 29.410184 | 5,987.24 | -0.40 | | CSI 300 | 455.00487 | 2.0848 | 7,397.5894 | -0.95 | | CSI 1000 | - | 43.6863 | - | -1.45 | [3] CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading | Index | Call Option Volume (million) | Put Option Volume (million) | Volume PCR | Call Option Open Interest (million) | Put Option Open Interest (million) | Open Interest PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2.85 | 1.83 | 0.64 | 2.78 | 1.02 | 0.37 | | CSI 300 | 6.05 | 4.59 | 0.76 | 8.20 | 9.42 | 1.15 | | CSI 1000 | 28.25 | 13.64 | 0.48 | 14.61 | 13.51 | 0.92 | [3] Volatility Analysis SSE 50 Volatility - Historical volatility and historical volatility cone data are presented, along with the volatility smile curve and next-month at-the-money implied volatility [3][4] CSI 300 Volatility - Historical volatility and historical volatility cone data are provided, as well as the volatility smile curve and next-month at-the-money implied volatility [3][4] CSI 1000 Volatility - Historical volatility and historical volatility cone data are shown, along with the volatility smile curve and next-month at-the-money implied volatility [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment view: Oscillating with a bearish bias [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in supply has made the spot market weak, and the downstream demand is limited. The futures market may remain weak. The 01 contract's upside is restricted by increased production capacity until February next year. If there are winter epidemics, there will be short - term selling pressure. With piglets in continuous loss for a month, if the loss situation persists, the long - term investment value of the far - month 07 contract can be considered [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Market Review - In September, the spot price hit a new low since the beginning of the year, and the overall price center has been declining. The price mainly fluctuates between 12.8 yuan/kg and 16 yuan/kg, with no obvious seasonal trend. The recent decline is due to increased supply and high slaughter weight, indicating abundant production capacity [4] - From July to August, affected by winter piglet losses, the slaughter slowed down. In June, under the background of anti - involution, production capacity regulation stimulated the spot market. The price difference between standard and fat pigs widened, and group farms reduced slaughter while secondary fattening was active, leading to a price increase in July. In September, the slaughter growth inflection point arrived, with production capacity restoration from high - profit piglets in the first quarter. The anti - involution sentiment faded, and the spot price dropped to the lowest point of the year, but the decline was gentle compared to the past five years [6] 3.1.2 Spread Market Review - Affected by anti - involution, the futures - spot structure has shifted to contango. As the spot market weakened in September, the futures market followed passively, maintaining the contango structure. The 07 contract has the highest price due to the expected impact of production capacity reduction on next year's second half - year supply [3][7] 3.2 Capacity Realization in the Cycle 3.2.1 Gradual Restoration of Reproductive Sows - In the second half of the year, the monthly change in the number of reproductive sows was small. As of the end of July, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, 103.6% of the normal level of 39 million. According to the meeting, the number of reproductive sows is expected to be reduced by 1 million by the end of the year, still above the normal level [3][10] 3.2.2 Obvious Improvement in Production Efficiency - In the third quarter, the monthly slaughter volume increased significantly, reflecting the restoration of piglet production capacity in spring. The high piglet profit in February and March stimulated breeding, and the number of piglets increased. The slaughter volume is expected to continue to rise until February 2026, with a significant increase from September to November [3][13] - Since 2023, production efficiency has improved significantly. The average number of healthy piglets per litter has shown an upward trend and remained stable at a high level throughout the year, which is related to increased production capacity and attention to piglet survival rate due to high profits [15] 3.2.3 Steady Increase in Slaughter Weight - The large price difference between standard and fat pigs this year led to low expectations for weight reduction. In the second half of the year, the slaughter weight reached the highest level in the past five years. Although leading enterprises have reduced the weight, the overall national weight reduction is not obvious. The current average national slaughter weight is 128.32 kg, still at a high level in the past five years. Continuous secondary fattening has hindered active weight reduction [16][18] 3.3 Breeding Profit - This week, the self - breeding and self - raising profit entered a loss, ending 16 consecutive months of positive profit. However, the cash cost of breeding is still positive. The positive profit in this cycle is mainly due to the decline in feed raw material prices and the reduction of purchased piglet prices to the cost level. Short - term losses have little impact on breeding behavior, but if losses continue for more than a quarter, there may be motivation to reduce production capacity [21][23] 3.4 Stable Demand - This year's slaughter volume is better than last year, and the overall demand is normal. During the fourth - quarter peak season, the relatively low pig price supports demand. The increase in the frozen product inventory rate reflects the expectation of production capacity reduction in the future [24] 3.5 Policy Attention - The policy focuses on the active reduction of reproductive sows, aiming to reduce the number by 1 million by the end of the year. If implemented, it may affect the pig slaughter volume in the second half of next year. The current pig - grain ratio has triggered the purchase and storage policy. Although the grain price increase is limited due to a good corn harvest, attention should still be paid to policies related to the pig - grain ratio caused by falling pig prices [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "shockingly weak" [1][2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international policy is loose but highly uncertain, while the domestic policy aims for stable growth but the domestic demand momentum needs to be released. The inflation pressure in the US has not completely subsided, and the market bets on further interest rate cuts by the end of the year, but the risk of "recessionary interest rate cuts" should be vigilant. There are still differences in the Sino-US tariff negotiations. In May 2025, some additional tariffs were cancelled, but the US has not clearly adjusted the 20% tariff related to "fentanyl" and the 10% basic tariff, and there are still significant variables in the later stage. Domestically, the official has introduced a series of economic stabilization policies, and the market expects a possible interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut in the fourth quarter; the capital activity has increased marginally, but the domestic demand policy still needs to be strengthened [5][64]. - Globally, the cotton production in the 2025/26 season has been increased month-on-month, with China, India, and Australia being the main sources of incremental production, offsetting the production cuts in some regions. The US production has slightly increased, but there is a risk of a downward revision of the unit yield due to the drought in the main producing areas. The global ending inventory has dropped to the lowest in nearly four years, the inventory-consumption ratio has decreased, and the supply and demand have shifted to a tight balance. The trade flow has been restructured due to Sino-US frictions, and China has reduced its purchase of US cotton and shifted to other cotton-producing countries. Domestically, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has increased year-on-year, and the sufficient accumulated temperature has helped to improve the unit yield. The total production is expected to increase significantly, the harvest time is advanced, the pre-sale volume of new cotton has increased significantly, and the hedging position has moved forward, suppressing the short-term supply elasticity. The risk preference of ginning factories has dropped to a low level due to continuous losses, the effective production capacity has been reduced, the shortage pattern of seed cotton has reversed, and at the same time, the port and industrial and commercial inventories are running at a low level, the import volume has shrunk, and the domestic supply is more dependent on new cotton. There is a game between cotton farmers and ginning factories regarding the opening price [5][68]. - Global consumption has been slightly adjusted upward but shows significant differentiation. China's "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has driven consumption growth, while countries such as Turkey and Pakistan have dragged down the global demand recovery due to weak textile exports. The import of textiles and clothing in Europe and the US has improved marginally, but the inventories of wholesalers are at a high level and the willingness to replenish stocks is weak. The orders of processing countries in Southeast Asia are mainly short-term orders, and there is a shortage of long-term orders. Domestically, the characteristics of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season are not significant. Although the operating rate of textile enterprises has rebounded, it is still lower than the same period in previous years. The order increment is limited and mainly consists of small and short-term orders. The inventories of yarn, grey cloth, and textile enterprise raw materials have been continuously reduced but are still at a high level in the same period. Textile enterprises have a low willingness to actively stock up due to profit losses (cash flow losses for inland enterprises and small profits for Xinjiang enterprises). Exports show the characteristic of "trading volume for price", and the proportion of exports to emerging markets has increased to offset the decline in demand from Europe and the US [5][68]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the third quarter, the Zhengzhou cotton futures generally showed a volatile trend of "rising first and then falling". In July, the domestic planting area increased in the new year, and the weather conditions were generally favorable for cotton growth. The market was optimistic about the later production, but the old crop inventory was low, and at the same time, the downstream production capacity was excessive. The old crop basis was running at a high level, which supported the Zhengzhou cotton price. The Zhengzhou cotton ran strongly to 14,200 - 14,300 yuan/ton. For US cotton, although some producing areas encountered certain weather problems, the overall impact was limited, and the market's expectation of US cotton production was still relatively stable. The price fluctuated between 67 - 68 cents/pound [6]. - In August, as the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere entered the critical growth stage, the impact of weather factors on the market became more significant. The weather in the Xinjiang production area in China was good, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of Xinjiang cotton increased. At the same time, the near-month Zhengzhou cotton continued to reduce its positions and decline, reflecting that the real willingness of long - term funds to take delivery was relatively low. In the US, continuous drought weather occurred in some main cotton - producing areas, resulting in a decrease in the good - quality rate of US cotton. However, due to market concerns that the Sino - US tariff negotiations would fall short of expectations, leading to continued sluggish exports of new crops, the US cotton price still maintained a volatile and weak operation [6]. - In September, as the new cotton was approaching the market, the game among all parties in the market intensified. At the macro level, the domestic introduced a series of economic stabilization policies, which boosted the sentiment of the commodity market. Driven by the positive market sentiment, the Zhengzhou cotton rushed up to near the previous high again, but due to the gradual listing of new cotton and the less - than - expected recovery of orders from downstream textile enterprises, the Zhengzhou cotton fell again. At the end of the month, the price of the main contract closed at 13,600 - 13,700 yuan/ton. For US cotton, as the new cotton began to be harvested one after another, the market's expectation of production gradually became clear. Although there was some production reduction due to previous weather problems, the demand side was still weak. The US cotton price fluctuated and fell after rushing up, and the price of the main contract closed at around 69 cents/pound at the end of the month [7]. 2. International Cotton Market 2.1 Global Trade Flow Reconstruction - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production increased by more than 230,000 tons month - on - month to 25.62 million tons. The main sources of incremental production were China, India, and Australia. The global cotton consumption increased by 180,000 tons month - on - month to 25.87 million tons, mainly driven by the recovery of consumption in China. The global cotton trade volume increased by 20,000 tons month - on - month. India and Australia were the main sources of export increment, and Vietnam and Turkey were the main sources of import increment. The global cotton trade generally maintained an expanding trend, but the Sino - US trade friction led to the gradual reconstruction of the global trade flow [13]. - Affected by the reduction of the initial inventory, the global cotton ending inventory decreased by nearly 170,000 tons month - on - month to 15.92 million tons, the lowest level in nearly four years. The global cotton inventory - consumption ratio dropped to 45%, down 1 percentage point month - on - month and 0.7 percentage points year - on - year, indicating that the global cotton "de - stocking" process continued, and the supply - demand pattern gradually switched from "loose" to "tight balance" [14]. 2.2 United States: Drought in Producing Areas and Obstructed Exports - In terms of new crop production, the USDA September supply - demand report showed that the estimated unit yield of US cotton in the 2025/26 season was 861 pounds/acre, down 1 pound/acre month - on - month, but the estimated harvest area was 7.37 million acres, up 10,000 acres month - on - month, resulting in a slight increase in the total production to 2.88 million tons, up 2,000 tons month - on - month. The adjustment of the unit yield was due to the continuous expansion of the drought area in the main US cotton - producing areas. As of September 16, 2025, about 41% of the US cotton - producing areas were affected by drought. As of September 22, 2025, the overall good - quality rate of US cotton plants was 52%, down 2 percentage points from the previous week [16][17]. - In terms of exports, from September 12 - 18, 2025, the export signing volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 18,500 tons, down 54% from the previous week and the average level of the previous four weeks. The weekly export shipment volume was 31,100 tons, up 14% from the previous week and 6% from the average level of the previous four weeks. China continued to be absent from the new - season US cotton procurement. As of the week of September 18, 2025, the total sales progress of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 7.7%, indicating that US cotton faced difficulties in the international market and its competitiveness needed to be improved [18]. - In terms of tariff negotiations, in May 2025, China and the US agreed to cancel the additional 91% tariffs imposed after April 2, but the US still had uncertainties in tariff policies. The market expected that the possibility of reducing the 10% (basic reciprocal tariff) was low; the 20% fentanyl tariff was expected to be reduced, but the reduction range was not clear; the reduction range of the 24% additional reciprocal tariff also depended on the negotiation results of both sides [19]. 2.3 Brazil: Both Supply and Sales Increase - For the old crop, in the 2024/25 season, the cotton planting area in Brazil continued to expand, with the national cotton planting area reaching about 2.09 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 155,000 hectares (+7.3%). The average unit yield was 1,887 kg/hectare (-0.9%), equivalent to 125.8 kg/mu. Driven by the large increase in area, the total cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season reached 3.94 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 233,000 tons (+6.3%), setting a new historical record [37]. - For the new crop, it is predicted that the cotton planting area in Brazil will be 2.14 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%, and the output is expected to be 3.96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The average unit yield is 1,849 kg/hectare, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. The main risk to the new - crop unit yield comes from the uncertainty of climate conditions. In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's total cotton exports reached 2.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, making it the world's largest cotton exporter again. As of mid - September 2025, the pre - sale progress of Brazil's 2025/26 season cotton had reached 26% [40]. 2.4 India: Production Increases and Demand Stabilizes - In terms of production, the USDA latest report estimated that the cotton production in India in the 2025/26 season would be 4.16 million bales, with a planting area of 11.2 million hectares and a unit yield of 372 kg/hectare. The CAI predicted that the new - crop unit yield would increase by about 10% [42]. - In terms of imports, as of July 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume of India in the 2024/25 season (2024.8 - 2025.7) was 604,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 284.5%, at a historical high. The CAI latest supply - demand data adjusted the cotton import volume of India in the 2024/25 season to 3.9 million bales [42][43]. - In terms of exports, the USDA September report showed that the cotton export of India in the 2024/25 season decreased by 40,000 tons month - on - month to 280,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. The CAI estimated that the export in the 2024/25 season would be 1.8 million bales, lower than 2.836 million bales in the 2023/24 season. The export destinations were still concentrated in Southeast Asia, but the shares of major countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, and China all declined significantly [43]. - In terms of domestic consumption, the CAI estimated that as of the end of August 2025, the domestic cotton consumption in India in the 2024/25 season was 5.34 million tons, basically the same month - on - month and year - on - year [43]. 2.5 Southeast Asia: Total Volume Increases Steadily and Structure Differs - Southeast Asia has become the core destination for the transfer of global cotton spinning production capacity. Affected by the 50% tariff imposed by the US on Indian goods, a large number of Indian cotton product orders have been transferred to Southeast Asia. Vietnam, Bangladesh and other countries' yarn mills' cotton consumption demand has increased significantly. Vietnam has an advantage in tariff competition in the European and American markets and has become the preferred destination for export - oriented orders [45]. - Southeast Asia itself lacks cotton production and depends entirely on imports for raw materials. In the 2025/26 season, the cotton planting area in Pakistan is expected to be 1.85 million hectares, a decrease of 7.5% from the previous year. The output is predicted to be adjusted down to 1.05 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [46][47]. 3. Domestic Cotton Market 3.1 Supply: High Pressure from New Crops - For the old crop inventory, as of August 31, 2025, the total national social cotton inventory was 2.37 million tons, including 890,000 tons of industrial inventory and 1.48 million tons of commercial inventory, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% and 14.0% respectively, significantly lower than 3 million tons in the same period in 2024. After entering September, the pace of old - crop inventory depletion slowed down slightly but remained at a low level. Spot transactions were dull, and textile enterprises mainly made rigid purchases [49]. - For the new crop output, in terms of area, according to the data of the National Cotton Market Monitoring System in July 2025, the national actual cotton sown area was 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%; among them, the actual sown area in the Xinjiang cotton area was 43.58 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In terms of unit yield, the comprehensive climate from sowing to boll - opening in the Xinjiang cotton area was suitable. The China Cotton Association data showed that the estimated unit yield of Xinjiang cotton in 2025 was 169 kg/mu, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. Market institutions estimated that the output range was between 7.08 - 7.7 million tons [49][50]. - In terms of imports, since 2025, the domestic cotton import volume has decreased significantly year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 513,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. It may increase slightly from September to December due to the implementation of processing trade quotas, but it will still be relatively stable throughout the year [50]. 3.2 Demand: High and Stable in Xinjiang, Differentiated in Inland Areas - The operating rate of domestic yarn mills shows a pattern of "high and stable in Xinjiang, differentiated in inland areas". The operating rate of Xinjiang yarn mills is significantly better than that of inland areas. Since 2025, the operating rate of large - scale yarn mills in Xinjiang has been stable in the range of 80% - 90%. From the raw material end, the expected local cotton output in Xinjiang is sufficient, and yarn mills can purchase nearby, which not only has a stable supply but also saves long - distance transportation costs. From the industrial environment, in recent years, Xinjiang has continuously increased its support for the textile industry, and the policy dividends have attracted a large amount of investment [55]. - The demand for cotton in inland yarn mills shows a differentiated pattern of "stable for leading enterprises, sluggish for small and medium - sized enterprises", and the overall demand is weaker than that in Xinjiang. Large - scale inland yarn mills have relatively stable demand for cotton procurement, while small and medium - sized yarn mills face multiple operating pressures. On the one hand, the terminal consumer market demand is weak, and it is difficult to obtain orders, and most of them are small and short - term orders. On the other hand, the costs of raw material procurement, labor, transportation, etc. continue to rise, and the profit space of enterprises is compressed. Some enterprises have tight cash flow, and the operating rate can only be maintained at 50% - 60%, and there are even intermittent shutdown situations [56][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report anticipates a differentiated trend in the oil and fat market and suggests waiting for opportunities for supply - demand resonance. It provides investment advice on unilateral trading, basis trading, inter - month arbitrage, and cross - variety spread trading for different types of oils [1][2]. - Palm oil is expected to be short - term volatile and long - term bullish; soybean oil is short - term bearish and medium - term neutral; rapeseed oil shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern with a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q3 2025, the futures prices of the three major domestic oils showed differentiation. Palm oil prices were volatile from July to September, affected by Indonesia's policies and Malaysia's inventory and demand. Soybean oil prices were range - bound due to factors like US soybean production and potential biodiesel demand. Rapeseed oil prices strengthened due to supply shortages and inventory depletion [9]. 3.2 Global Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Overview 3.2.1 Global Oilseeds - In the 2025/26 season, global oilseeds are expected to be in a tighter situation. The ending inventory is estimated to be 143.08 million tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 16.1%, down 0.13 percentage points year - on - year. Demand growth exceeds inventory growth [12][13]. 3.2.2 Global Oils and Fats - The global oil and fat market is becoming increasingly tight, mainly driven by the growing demand for biodiesel. Production is expected to reach 234.69 million tons in 2025/26, up 2.47% year - on - year, while demand is expected to reach 229.28 million tons, up 3.04% [14]. 3.3 Palm Oil Origin Situation 3.3.1 Malaysia - The traditional palm oil production reduction season in Malaysia is approaching in Q4, and there may be an early reduction in September due to abnormal precipitation and floods. Exports in September are expected to increase before the Indian Festival of Lights, and inventory is expected to decline slightly [17][21]. 3.3.2 Indonesia - In 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to increase, with cumulative production from January to July reaching 33.496 million tons, up 3.35 million tons year - on - year. Domestic consumption is increasing due to the implementation of B40, and exports have not decreased as expected [25][30]. 3.4 Soybean Origin Situation 3.4.1 Brazil - In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's soybean production is estimated to be 171.47 million tons, up 13.3% year - on - year. Exports are expected to be 106.65 million tons, up 8% year - on - year. The implementation of B15 in 2025 will increase the demand for soybean oil. There is a high probability of a La Nina event in winter 2025, which may affect new - crop yields [35][38]. 3.4.2 United States - In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean planting area is estimated to be 81.1 million acres, down about 7% year - on - year. As of September 21, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate was 61%. The total production is estimated to be 4.301 billion bushels. The new RVO proposed by the EPA will increase the demand for vegetable oils [40][55]. 3.5 Rapeseed Origin Situation 3.5.1 Canada - In the 2025/26 season, Canada's rapeseed planting area is expected to decrease by 2.0% year - on - year, but production is expected to increase by 4.1% due to higher yields. Exports have been poor due to China's anti - dumping measures [58][64]. 3.6 Major Consumer Countries' Situation 3.6.1 India - In August 2025, India's imports of palm oil, sunflower oil, and rapeseed oil reached a peak due to pre - festival stocking. In September, imports decreased slightly but remained at a high level. After the Festival of Lights, consumption will enter a seasonal off - season [69][70]. 3.6.2 China - For palm oil, imports are expected to weaken in Q4, and inventory is expected to remain around 500,000 tons from October to November. For soybean oil, imports are affected by Sino - US trade frictions, and supply is increasing. For rapeseed oil, production is affected by raw material shortages, and inventory is expected to decline rapidly [73][90]. 3.7 Spread Situation 3.7.1 Basis - Palm oil basis is expected to be weak in Q4; soybean oil basis is expected to oscillate weakly; rapeseed oil basis is expected to strengthen [93]. 3.7.2 Inter - month Spread - For the 1 - 5 spread in Q4, palm oil has a positive arbitrage logic, soybean oil has a reverse arbitrage logic, and rapeseed oil has a positive arbitrage logic [100]. 3.7.3 Cross - Variety Spread - In Q4, it is recommended to go long on palm oil or rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Without significant policy and weather changes, under the expectation of new - season corn selling pressure and decreased planting costs, C01 is expected to oscillate and build a bottom. Pay attention to the inventory - building rhythm of traders and policy changes. After the selling pressure of new grains is further realized, C09 can be selectively bought at low prices [1]. - Global major corn - exporting countries' corn inventory - to - consumption ratios are rising. In the 2025/26 season, the US corn inventory - to - consumption ratio is raised from 8.65% in the 2024/25 season to 13.14%, and that of the world's major corn - exporting countries is raised from 7.71% to 9.73% [5][130]. - The new - season corn is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the planting cost is decreasing. The national planting area in the 2025/26 season is expected to slightly decrease year - on - year, but due to suitable weather during the planting period, the yield per unit is expected to significantly increase year - on - year. The new - season corn collection and port cost is expected to further drop to around 1950 - 2100 yuan/ton [5][130]. - In the 24/25 season, domestic grain imports significantly decreased. Pay attention to policy changes in the 25/26 season [5][130]. - The inventory at the northern ports is at a low level, and the north - south trade profit is expected to recover. As the supply of old grains is coming to an end and new grains have not been widely listed, the corn inventory at the northern ports has gradually decreased to a low level, and the corn inventory at the southern ports has also decreased. After the inventory at the southern ports is digested, there is an expected demand for the outflow of grain sources from the Northeast, and the north - south trade price difference is expected to gradually recover [5][131]. - In 2025, the feed demand supports corn consumption. Pay attention to the capacity reduction situation in the breeding sector. From the perspective of the number of fertile sows and body weight, the current capacity reduction is not obvious. It is expected that the pig slaughter volume will continue to increase until February 2026, and poultry is expected to maintain a high inventory, supporting the feed demand. Feed enterprises' inventory levels have dropped to a low level, and there is a rigid demand for replenishing inventory [5][131]. - The deep - processing demand has decreased. Pay attention to the peak - season consumption. This year, the deep - processing corn consumption has significantly decreased compared with last year. Deep - processing enterprises have a deep loss in processing profit and have adopted a strategy of reducing the operation rate and waiting for inventory digestion. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation during the starch consumption peak season. The raw - material corn inventory level has dropped to a low level, and there is a rigid demand for replenishing inventory [5][131]. - The wheat - corn price difference is gradually moving out of the substitution range. As new - season corn is gradually listed, the wheat - corn price difference is gradually moving out of the substitution range. Recently, wheat procurement and storage have been continuously strengthened. Some areas in North China with excessive corn mycotoxins still have a willingness to purchase wheat, which supports the wheat price to a certain extent. Pay attention to the spot trend of wheat after the wheat procurement - support policy ends at the end of September [5][131]. - Pay attention to the procurement and storage policy. The procurement and storage policy is expected to boost the corn price during the grain - selling period. Pay attention to the release time and procurement price of the procurement and storage announcement in the 25/26 season [5][132]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 CBOT Corn Market Review - From January to late February 2025, the USDA January supply - demand report significantly lowered the yield per unit of US corn in the 2024/25 season, tightening the supply - demand of old grains and raising the price center of US corn. Drought in South America and international trade policies affected the market, causing the CBOT to oscillate upwards [6]. - From late February to the end of March 2025, the low soybean - corn price ratio led to an expectation of an increase in the planting area of new - season US corn. The sowing season in the US and improved weather in South America, along with international trade tensions, caused the CBOT to decline under pressure [6]. - From the end of March to mid - April 2025, rainfall in US corn - producing areas delayed the sowing progress. Trump's suspension of tariff measures on most countries except China led to a phased rebound in the CBOT [6]. - From mid - April to mid - August 2025, suitable weather during the growth period of US corn, an increase in the planting area, and an expectation of a loose global grain market supply - demand in the 25/26 season caused the US corn price to decline under pressure [6]. - From mid - August to now in 2025, less rainfall in US corn - producing areas affected the yield per unit, but strong export sales at low prices pushed the price to rebound at a low level [7]. 1.2 DCE Corn Market Review - From early January to mid - March 2025, farmers' grain - selling progress advanced, and the purchasing mentality of the middle and lower reaches improved. The futures market had a premium over the spot market under the expectation of the procurement and storage policy [10]. - From mid - March to late June 2025, the impact of the procurement and storage policy gradually diminished. With reduced imports and good demand, the overall supply - demand was expected to tighten, and the market showed a bottom - rising and oscillating - upward trend. Various factors affected the fluctuation rhythm [10]. - From late June to late August 2025, slow inventory reduction at ports, high warehouse - receipt pressure, weak wheat prices, and the substitution of wheat for corn in feed led to insufficient downstream demand support. With suitable growth weather for new grains and an expectation of a bumper harvest and lower planting costs, the market shifted from trading the low carry - over of old grains to trading the high - yield expectation of new grains and declined under pressure [10]. - From late August to early September 2025, the supply of old grains tightened, new grains had not been widely listed, and the inventory at the northern ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises decreased to a low level. The spot market was relatively strong under the low carry - over of old grains, and rainfall in North China delayed the listing, causing the market to rebound [10]. - From early September to now in 2025, new grains have been gradually listed, the price of deep - processing in the north has been under pressure, and the market has returned to a downward trend due to the expectation of new - grain selling pressure and decreased planting costs [11]. 2. Global Major Exporting Countries' Corn Inventory - to - Consumption Ratios Are Rising - In the 2025/26 season, the global corn production is estimated to be 1.287 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 57.67 million tons, reaching the highest level in history. The US corn production is estimated to be 427 million tons, and the US corn inventory - to - consumption ratio is raised from 8.65% in the 2024/25 season to 13.14%. The inventory - to - consumption ratio of the world's major corn - exporting countries is raised from 7.71% to 9.73%, and the global corn supply is expected to recover [15]. 2.1 US Corn Inventory - to - Sales Ratio Is Raised, and Export Performance Is Good - According to the USDA September supply - demand report, the US corn planting area in the 2025/26 season is further raised to 98.7 million acres, an increase of 8.1 million acres compared with the 2024/25 season. Although the yield per unit is slightly lowered, it is still at a historically high level. As of September 21, the US corn excellent - rate is 66%, at a high level in the same period over the years. The US corn inventory - to - consumption ratio in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 13.14%, an increase of 4.49% compared with the previous year [18][19]. - With the US corn price dropping to a low level, its cost - effectiveness advantage in the international corn market is emerging, and its export performance is good. Mexico and Japan are still the main purchasers of US corn. However, due to Sino - US trade frictions and China's domestic import - restriction policies, the export volume of US corn to China is expected to significantly decrease this year [21]. 2.2 South American Corn Maintains a Bumper - Harvest Expectation - Brazil's total corn production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 138.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.02% compared with the previous year. From January to September 2025, Brazil's corn export volume reached 24.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. Brazil's first - crop corn is about to enter the sowing season, and pay attention to the weather in the producing areas. Argentina's corn has started sowing, and its planting area in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 7.8 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%, reaching the second - highest level in history [26]. 2.3 Ukraine's Corn Production Recovers - In the 2024/25 season, hot and dry weather led to a reduction in Ukraine's corn production. In the 2025/26 season, Ukraine's corn production is expected to recover. It is estimated to be 32 million tons, an increase of 5.2 million tons compared with the previous year, and the export volume is estimated to be 25.5 million tons, an increase of 4.9 million tons compared with the previous year [28][30]. 3. New - Season Corn Bumper - Harvest Expectation and Review of Recent Selling - Pressure Market Conditions - Recently, new - season corn has been gradually listed. The arrival volume of corn at the northern ports and the morning arrival volume of trucks at Shandong deep - processing enterprises have increased. Northeast deep - processing enterprises have significantly reduced prices, and the price decline in North China has slowed down due to rainfall, but it is still expected to be under pressure after the weather clears. Overall, the 2025/26 season's national planting area is expected to slightly decrease year - on - year, but due to suitable weather during the planting period, the yield per unit is expected to significantly increase year - on - year, and the whole country maintains a bumper - harvest expectation. The corn planting cost is expected to further decline, and the new - season corn collection and port cost is expected to further drop to around 1950 - 2100 yuan/ton [31][32]. - Reviewing the recent new - season selling - pressure market conditions, in 2023, after trading the tail - end increase of old grains, the market traded the expectation of new - season corn's bumper - harvest selling pressure, and the futures drove the spot price down to the cost range. In 2024, the market started to trade the expectation of new - season corn's bumper - harvest selling pressure in early July, and the corn price significantly dropped below the cost range. In 2025, under the expectation of new - season corn's autumn - harvest selling pressure and decreased planting costs, the corn futures and spot prices have been under pressure since late June. However, it is expected that the market will not significantly drop below the planting cost like last year because traders' inventory - building enthusiasm is expected to increase year - on - year [40]. 4. Import Volume Decreased in the 24/25 Season, Pay Attention to Policy Changes in the 25/26 Season - Since 2019, after the domestic corn reserve inventory was basically depleted, the domestic corn production - demand gap has been supplemented by imported grains and domestic substitute grains. In 2024, China began to restrict the import volume of bonded - area corn and further clarified the control of the import scale of corn, sorghum, and barley. In 2025, major import enterprises were interviewed again to emphasize the control of the later - stage grain import quantity. In the 24/25 season, the domestic import of grains significantly decreased, which promoted the demand to return to domestic grains. From January to August 2025, China's imported corn arrival was only 877,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 93%; the imported sorghum was 2.9789 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49%; and the imported barley was 6.5907 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39%. Under the current Sino - US tariff policy, the import profit of US corn to the southern domestic market is negative, while Brazilian corn has an import profit, with the theoretical import profit of September - shipment corn being about 186 yuan/ton [47]. 5. Northern Port Inventory at a Low Level, North - South Trade Profit Recovering - As the supply of old grains is coming to an end and new grains have not been widely listed, the corn inventory at the northern ports has gradually decreased to a low level, and the corn inventory at the southern ports has also decreased. As of September 12, 2025, the total corn inventory at the four northern ports was 729,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 216,000 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports that week was 321,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons. As of September 19, 2025, the domestic - trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 308,000 tons, a decrease of 293,000 tons compared with the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 67,000 tons, an increase of 67,000 tons compared with the previous week; the imported sorghum was 374,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared with the previous week; and the imported barley was 905,000 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons compared with the previous week. After the inventory at the southern ports is digested, there is an expected demand for the outflow of grain sources from the Northeast, and the north - south trade price difference is expected to gradually recover [53]. 6. Feed Demand in 2025 Supports Corn Consumption, Pay Attention to Capacity Reduction in the Breeding Sector - According to the China Feed Industry Association, from January to August 2025, the feed production reached 216.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.92 million tons. Due to the decrease in imported substitute grains, the proportion of corn added in compound feed from January to August this year was generally higher than the same period in previous years. However, due to the substitution of domestic wheat, the proportion of corn added decreased from May to August and is expected to continue until September [66]. - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the monthly change in the number of fertile sows in the second half of 2025 is small. As of July 2025, the national number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 0.02%. The de - stocking degree is limited, and no continuous capacity contraction has been formed. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium on pig - production capacity regulation on September 16, aiming to reduce the number of fertile sows by 1 million by the end of this year, approximately to around 39.5 million. From the perspective of body weight, the national pig body weight has not decreased significantly, and the current national average slaughter weight is 128.55 kg, still at a high level in the same period over the years. Affected by breeding profits and low feed costs, secondary fattening continues to roll, which hinders the active weight reduction [68]. - From the perspective of pig slaughter volume, the slaughter volume has significantly increased month - by - month in the third quarter, reflecting the recovery of the piglet production capacity in spring. It is estimated from the number of piglet inventories that the pig slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase until February 2026, with a more obvious increase in October. Due to the high pig slaughter volume and body weight, the pig price is under pressure and declining, and the breeding profit is continuously shrinking. If the breeding profit continues to be in deficit for more than a quarter, it may promote enterprises to reduce capacity [69]. - In terms of poultry, the high inventory supports the feed demand. In the short term, meat poultry is expected to maintain a high inventory due to the large number of grandparent - stock introductions and the high inventory of in - production breeding chickens in the early stage. For egg - laying poultry, the inventory increased month - on - month in August, and the previous active replenishment will continue to be reflected in production until the end of the year. Under the expectation of a bumper harvest of new - season corn, feed enterprises have adopted a low - inventory strategy, and the inventory level has significantly dropped to a low level, with limited room for further reduction, and there is a rigid demand for replenishing inventory [80][90]. 7. Deep - Processing Demand Decreases, Pay Attention to Peak - Season Consumption - This year, the

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 400-8888-598 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号:Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 ITG国贸期货 2025/9/29 | 指标 | | 9月26日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 113 | 30 | 1600 | ----- 18/19 ----- 22/23 | ===== 19/20 ===== 23/24 | == - 24/25 | == | | | 天津 日照 | 63 23 | 30 20 | 1200 400 | | | | | | | | | | 800 | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | 3 | 30 | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 400 | | | | | | | | | | 01/21 02/21 | 03/24 04/24 | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market is currently in a state of flux, with spot freight rates on the trans - Pacific route falling and carriers taking measures to stabilize prices. The European route is expected to experience a transition between the off - season and peak season, and the implementation of shipping companies' price increases is uncertain. A 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended [4][6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) both declined. SCFI dropped by 6.97% to 1115, and CCFI decreased by 2.93% to 1087. Rates on various routes such as the US West, US East, Northwest Europe, and Mediterranean also saw significant drops, with the SCFIS - Northwest Europe falling 17.15% to 1193 and the SCFI - Mediterranean down 9.34% to 1485 [5]. - **Contract Freight Index**: Most of the contract freight indices showed a slight decline, except for EC2506 which had a 0.08% increase to 1483.5. EC2608 decreased by 0.66% to 1617.2, EC2510 dropped by 2.90% to 1139.0, etc. [5]. - **Position and Spread**: Positions in some contracts decreased, like EC2606 position decreased by 14 to 938 and EC2608 by 14 to 542. The 10 - 12 spread decreased by 27.9 to - 638.0, the 12 - 2 spread increased by 5.1 to 92.0, and the 12 - 4 spread increased by 10.4 to 508.4 [5]. 3.2 Market News and Its Impact - Trans - Pacific shipping companies are increasing capacity cuts to stop the decline in freight rates. Spot freight rates on the east - west trans - Pacific route have fallen below the fixed contract prices signed by medium - sized retailers in May. In the next four weeks, trans - Pacific liner companies will accelerate the implementation of blank sailings to stabilize falling spot freight rates [6]. 3.3 EC Market Review - **Market Trend**: The market is in a state of oscillation. The main reason is that CM4 has raised the November freight rate to 3000, and MSK's unchanged freight rate in the second week of October has increased the expectation of a halt in the decline. MSK has announced a price increase of 400 for the late - October freight rate to 1800 [7]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the GEMINI October upper - half price dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. In late September, the FMK freight rate center was around 1500 [7]. 3.4 Market Logic and Strategy - **Logic**: In late September, shipping companies collectively cut prices to grab cargo, and the freight rate once dropped to 1300 dollars/FEU. Before the peak season at the end of the year, Maersk took the lead in announcing a 400 - dollar/FEU price increase for late October. However, due to the decline in both supply and demand in October, it is likely to return to the off - season market. The European route will focus on price stabilization and support during the transition between the off - season and peak season, and the implementation of shipping companies' price increases is uncertain [8]. - **Strategy**: A 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended [9].

· 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 钢材：高产量水平下，考验需求 | 投资观点： | 震荡 | 黑色金属 | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025-9-29 | 季度报告 | ⚫ 需求：内需偏淡、出口潜在信心不足 出口依然是钢材几个需求指标中最有韧性的，需要注意的是 有一定脆弱性。内需指标三季度都有不同程度回落：地产垫 底，制造业和基建高增放缓。卷、螺库存三季度去化不理想， 从实际需求表现来看，10 月是建材次旺季，按照近几年历史 季节性变化的同期参考，四季度钢材库存和产量边际变化方 向大多是下降的，但建材表需高点往往出现在国庆节前的某 一周。不过宏观层面存中美降息周期共振等利好风偏的可能 性，可关注资金行为是否有助于投机需求改善。 ⚫ 供给：产量高位，增加对需求匹配度的要求 今年钢厂即期生产利润还不错，长流程优于短流程，是产量 保持高位的重要条件。基于年度产量平控要求以及四季度后 需求预期提速的空间暂时不大，四季度产量层面需关注是否 有减产行为。 单边建议敞口中性配置，或等待新驱动出现。 贸易环节建议关注流动性好的现货品种滚动交易基差。 品种价差层面，关注卷螺差 ...