投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/11/24 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/11/20 2025/11/21 | | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 455. 5 | 447. 4 | -8. 10 | 成交情况: PTA:原油下跌,且PX行情下跌,成本支撑减弱,利空 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1385.8 | 1414. 7 | 28. 86 | PTA行情。PTA去库存,基差走强。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4187 | 1. 4351 | 0. 0165 | | | | CFR中国PX | 833 | 824 | -9 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 260 | 262 | 2 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 4696 | ...

国内白糖工业库存 巴西糖配额外进口利润 2000 ------ 19/20 ------- 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------ 22/23 ------ 22/23 ------- 23/24 - - 24/25 800 C 1500 1000 500 600 0 -500 -1000 400 -1500 -2000 -2500 200 =2017 == 2018 == 2020 2016 · 0 2021 · =2022 == 2023 = =2024 == 2025 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 4月 5月 6月 7月 9月 3月 8月 柳州-01基差 郑糖1-5月差 500 1000 800 400 600 300 400 200 200 100 0 0 -200 -400 -100 -200 6月21日 7月21日 8月21日 9月21日 10月21日 11月21日 12月21日 5月21日 =SR1801-SR1805 =SR1901-SR1905 =SR2001-SR2005 SR1701-SR1705 = SR2101-SR2105 -- SR2201-SR2205 -- ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot circulation volume of asphalt in North China and Shandong is relatively low, and the market supply remains at a low level, which supports the price stability; the main refineries in South China and East China focus on digesting their own inventories, which also provides some support for the asphalt price. However, there are still abundant low - price resources in the social inventory, which need time to be digested, and the market is still in a wait - and - see mood. The shipping price in East China is still expected to decline. In the future, the refinery operating rate in Shandong remains low, and the market supply is tight, which supports the regional asphalt price; in the East China market, under the influence of the shipping support policy, the market is in a strong wait - and - see atmosphere with weak purchasing willingness, and the shipping price still has room to decline in the short term [5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Asphalt Spot Market - In different regions, the current and previous spot prices in East China are 3200 - 3500, in Northeast China are 3020, in South China are 3130, in Northwest China are 3940, and in Shandong are 3030, with a 0% increase in all regions [1] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - For asphalt futures, the current values of BU2512, BU2601, and BU2602 are 3013, 3009, and 3024 respectively, with previous values of 3051, 3058, and 3073 respectively, and the corresponding increases are - 1.25%, - 1.60%, and - 1.59% [1] 3.3 External Market News - The London Intercontinental Exchange announced a ban on the delivery of diesel refined from Russian crude oil in third - countries, pushing the ICE diesel crack spread to a more than two - year high and further expanding the spot premium structure. Politico reported that the White House is about to announce a major new peace agreement with Russia to end the three - and - a - half - year Russia - Ukraine conflict, with an expected agreement on the framework by the end of this month or even as early as this week. A Russian diplomat explained that a missile fell on a US military base when a Russian fighter jet was on a mission over Israel due to the inability to replace multiple fighter parts because of sanctions. The Sudanese Energy Ministry's deputy minister said that Sudan has postponed some exports of South Sudan's Dar Blend crude oil due to recent attacks on oil facilities. Axios reported that the US and Russia are coordinating on a potential Ukraine peace initiative [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View - The China Chemical and Physical Power Sources Industry Association will issue a notice on referring to the lithium iron phosphate cost index and standardizing industry development, suggesting that companies use the industry average cost range disclosed on November 18 as an important reference for pricing and not engage in low - price dumping below the cost line. The association will also regularly disclose the industry average cost range monthly and requires companies to submit operating data regularly [3] - After the lithium carbonate price reached 100,000 yuan, the market focuses on the continuation of the peak demand season and the resumption rhythm of mines in Jiangxi. There was a market correction due to factors such as narrowing de - stocking and mine resumption news. Terminal demand remains strong, but there is a callback demand due to the large number of profit - taking positions. With overseas mines, the market has a negative sentiment. In the short term, lithium carbonate prices face downward pressure and may experience wide - range fluctuations after stabilizing [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Compound and Lithium Ore Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 92,300 yuan, up 2,500 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 89,900 yuan, up 1,000 yuan [1] - Lithium ore prices: lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 1,089 yuan, down 28 yuan; lithium mica (Li₂O:1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,615 yuan, down 95 yuan; lithium mica (Li₂O:2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,550 yuan, down 150 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O:6% - 7%) is 8,750 yuan, down 875 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O:7% - 8%) is 10,100 yuan, down 975 yuan [1][2] 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Futures - Futures contract prices and changes: lithium carbonate 2512 closed at 90,960 yuan, down 8.99%; lithium carbonate 2601 closed at 91,020 yuan, down 9%; lithium carbonate 2602 closed at 91,040 yuan, down 9%; lithium carbonate 2603 closed at 91,160 yuan, down 8.99%; lithium carbonate 2604 closed at 91,880 yuan, down 8.99% [1] 3.3 Cathode Materials - Cathode material average prices and changes: lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 38,985 yuan, up 240 yuan; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 161,650 yuan, up 100 yuan; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 143,950 yuan, up 200 yuan; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 144,250 yuan, up 200 yuan [2] 3.4 Price Spreads - Price spreads and their changes: the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,400 yuan, with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,280 yuan, up 8,960 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 60 yuan, up 40 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 80 yuan, up 100 yuan [2] 3.5 Inventory - Total inventory (weekly) is 118,420 tons, down 2,052 tons; smelter inventory (weekly) is 26,104 tons, down 2,166 tons; downstream inventory (weekly) is 44,436 tons, down 4,336 tons; other inventory (weekly) is 47,880 tons, up 4,450 tons; registered warehouse receipts (daily) is 26,848 tons, down 68 tons [2] 3.6 Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 89,670 yuan, and the profit is 1,350 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 93,596 yuan, and the profit is 4,836 yuan [3] 3.7 Industry News - SMM reported that lithium carbonate production increased by 585 tons and inventory decreased by 2,052 tons this week [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Malay palm oil has increasing production and decreasing exports, facing significant short - term pressure, and should be treated bearishly [2] - Rapeseed oil is expected to change the supply shortage situation due to the supply expectations of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and there may be a catch - up decline compared to last year's trend [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - **24 - degree palm oil (2025/11/21)**: Tianjin price is 8,660 (down 200 from 2025/11/20), Zhangjiagang is 8,540 (down 200), Huangpu is 8,470 (down 200) [1] - **First - grade soybean oil (2025/11/21)**: Tianjin price is 8,330 (down 100 from 2025/11/20), Zhangjiagang is 8,470 (down 100), Huangpu is 8,520 (down 100) [1] - **Fourth - grade rapeseed oil (2025/11/21)**: Zhangjiagang price is 10,170 (up 100 from 2025/11/20), Wuhan is 10,220 (up 100), Chengdu is 10,450 (up 100) [1] 3.2 Futures Data - **Bean - palm main contract spread (2025/11/21)**: - 360, up 62 from 2025/11/20 [1] - **Rapeseed - bean main contract spread (2025/11/21)**: 1,626, up 71 from 2025/11/20 [1] - **Palm oil warehouse receipts (2025/11/21)**: 50, down 450 from 2025/11/20 [1] - **Soybean oil warehouse receipts (2025/11/21)**: 24,625, down 2 from 2025/11/20 [1] - **Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts (2025/11/21)**: 4,033, down 98 from 2025/11/20 [1] 3.3 Production and Export - **Malaysian palm oil production**: According to SPPOMA, from November 1 - 20, the yield per unit area increased by 10.32% compared to the same period last month [1] - **Malaysian palm oil export**: According to ITS, from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 15, decreased by 15.5%; from November 1 - 10, decreased by 12.8%. According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 20, exports decreased by 14% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 15, decreased by 10%; from November 1 - 10, decreased by 10% [1] 3.4 Inventory - **Domestic palm oil**: As of November 14, the national commercial inventory was 65.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.36%, at a recent high [1] - **Domestic soybean oil**: As of November 14, the national commercial inventory was 114.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75% [2] - **Rapeseed oil import**: The import volume in November is expected to be 22.6 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26.3%) due to the concentrated arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed oil [2] 3.5 US Soybean Forecast - The 2025/26 US soybean production forecast is 4.266 billion bushels, the yield per unit area is 53.1 bushels per acre, and the ending inventory is 0.304 billion bushels [1] - The 2025/26 US soybean export forecast is 1.635 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels from the September forecast, mainly affected by the enhanced export competitiveness of South American soybeans and the slowdown of international procurement rhythm [1]

1. 21日玻璃走低,纯碱震荡。 2. 玻璃方面,近期资金博弈剧烈,价格大幅走弱。基本面上供给整体持 稳。淡季来临,整体终端需求保有韧性,库存并未大幅累积。当前玻璃佔 值并不高。同时煤炭价格偏强,成本有支撑。中期供给过剩格局延续,价 格上行阻力大。 行情分析 3、纯碱更多跟随玻璃,但供需相对一般,价格承压。 刘草 交易策略 缅甸生仔 0000 250 200 8000 60000 100 2000 = 2024 = 2025 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性 任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者 需自行判断本报告中的任何意见 或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客, 推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我 将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。〔 ITC国贸期货 世界500F 国贸期货有限公i 流的衍生品综合服务商 | 玻璃纯碱数据目报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Section 1: Report Overview - The report, titled "Stock Index Options Data Daily Report", is provided by the Research Institute of Guomao Futures on November 21, 2025, with data sourced from Wind and the institute itself [2][3] Section 2: Market Review Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.4% at 3931.05 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.76%, the ChiNext Index dropped 1.12%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 declined 1.07%, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 decreased 1.24%, the Wind All A fell 0.66%, the Wind A500 dropped 0.62%, and the CSI A500 declined 0.67%. A - shares traded 1.72 trillion yuan throughout the day, compared to 1.74 trillion yuan the previous day [5] - The Shanghai 50 index had a trading volume of 1009.82 billion, a closing price of 3008.2904, a decline of 0.54, and a turnover of 194.56 billion yuan; the CSI 300 index had a trading volume of 4564.9483 billion, a closing price of 3567.12, a decline of 18.19, and a turnover of 227.54 billion yuan; the CSI 1000 index had a trading volume of 7340.4118 billion, a closing price of 6999.7818, a decline of 44.89, and a turnover of 4150.65 billion yuan [3] CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading | Index | Call Option Volume (10,000 contracts) | Put Option Volume (10,000 contracts) | Volume PCR | Call Option Open Interest (10,000 contracts) | Put Option Open Interest (10,000 contracts) | Open Interest PCR | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai 50 | 3.27 | 5.53 | 0.60 | 3.47 | 2.07 | 0.74 | | CSI 300 | 17.28 | 6.54 | 0.61 | 13.10 | 10.24 | 0.78 | | CSI 1000 | 33.92 | 0.78 | 0.89 | 16.23 | 19.11 | 0.89 | [3] Section 3: Volatility Analysis Shanghai 50 Volatility - The historical volatility of the Shanghai 50 index is analyzed through the historical volatility cone, including 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, minimum, maximum, and current values. The volatility smile curve shows the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4] CSI 300 Volatility - The historical volatility of the CSI 300 index is presented using the historical volatility cone with various quantile values. The volatility smile curve depicts the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4] CSI 1000 Volatility - The historical volatility of the CSI 1000 index is analyzed via the historical volatility cone, and the volatility smile curve shows the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a data daily from ITG Guomao Futures, focusing on the agricultural products, especially soybeans and soybean meal [2][3] - The report is dated November 21, 2025, and the analyst is Huang Xianglan [3] Group 2: Market Data Basis and Spread - On November 20, the basis of soybean meal's main contract in Zhangjiagang decreased by 45, while in Dongguan it increased by 5. The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong decreased by 4 [4] - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread on the main contract was 451, with a change of 14 [5] Exchange Rate and Crushing Margin - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0769, and the crushing margin for Brazilian soybeans was -52 yuan/ton, with no change [5] Inventory - The inventory data shows the trends of soybean inventory in Chinese ports, major oil mills, and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days from 2020 to 2025 [5] Operation and Crushing - The data also presents the operation rate and soybean crushing volume of major oil mills from 2020 to 2023 [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - USDA's November supply - demand report for 2025/26 reduced the US soybean yield per acre, exports, and carry - over, with less - than - expected positive impact [6] - CONB predicts Brazil's new crop output in 25/26 to reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 8, the sowing rate was 58.4% [6] - In China, soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory from November to December, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still relatively loose. The purchase of 12 - 1 month shipments is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [6] Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies may affect long - term supply [6] - Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, with recent downstream transactions being stable and good提货 performance [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - If there are no obvious weather problems, the market is expected to shift to trading the selling pressure of South American new crops from December to January, which may drag down the soybean meal pricing [6] - It is recommended to short M05 on rallies [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: PR, BR rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Stainless steel, asphalt, short - term corn, M05 of soybean meal, PVC, PP, some petrochemical products [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Index, Treasury bonds, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, precious metals, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, iron ore, manganese silicon, silicon carbide, glass, pure alkali, coking coal, coke, cotton, pulp, logs, crude oil, fuel oil, short - term soybean oil, long - term tin [1] 2. Core Views - The current macro environment is in a relatively vacuum period. A - share lacks a clear upward trend, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences will be gradually digested during index fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces to push the index up [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward movement [1]. - The Fed's December interest - rate cut expectation has cooled down, affecting the prices of various commodities, but different commodities have different responses based on their own fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity and Bond Markets - **Index**: Short - term market differences will be digested during fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces for upward movement [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the rise [1] Commodity Markets - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation cooling affects prices. Copper price decline is limited; aluminum price fluctuates at a high level; zinc has support below; nickel price fluctuates downward; stainless steel needs to pay attention to production; tin is bullish in the long - term [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is affected by OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical factors, and trade policies; asphalt is bearish; PR is bullish; BR rubber may rebound; PTA production declines; ethylene glycol is affected by multiple factors; PP and PVC are bearish; LPG fundamentals are stable [1] - **Agricultural Products**: New energy vehicle demand is strong, but lithium carbonate has upward pressure; cotton market is in a state of "support but no driver"; corn, soybean meal, and other grains have different price trends; pulp and logs have limited upward space; livestock products such as pigs have over - capacity issues [1] - **Building Materials and Metals**: Rebar and iron ore are affected by supply and demand and macro factors; coking coal and coke are affected by steel prices and supply - demand relationships; glass and pure alkali have limited upward space [1] - **Fuel and Oil Products**: Crude oil price fluctuates; fuel oil follows crude oil; asphalt is bearish; PR is bullish; BR rubber may rebound [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank carried out 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 110 billion yuan on the day. The 11 - month LPR quote remained unchanged, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [3][4]. - The market sentiment was cautious, with the stock index oscillating and closing down. The macro - level is a mix of positives and negatives. The market lacks a core driving force, and there are differences in market expectations. The stock index is expected to continue the oscillating pattern with support at the bottom and pressure upwards [6]. 3. Key Points by Category Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a net investment of 110 billion yuan after 190 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3]. - The 11 - month LPR remained unchanged, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - Interest rates of various varieties changed, such as DRO01 at 1.37% (- 5.67bp), DR007 at 1.49% (- 2.74bp), etc. [3] Stock Index and Market Conditions - The stock indexes fell, with the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 down 0.51% to 4564.9, the Shanghai 50 down 0.4% to 3008.3, the CSI 500 down 0.85% to 7061.9, and the CSI 1000 down 0.63% to 7340.4. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.7082 trillion yuan, a decrease of 17.7 billion yuan [6]. - The market sentiment was cautious, and the stock index oscillated and closed down. The market lacks a core driving force, and there are differences in market expectations. The stock index is expected to continue the oscillating pattern [6]. Futures Market - Futures prices of different varieties changed, such as IF down 0.6%, IH down 0.3%, IC down 0.7%, and IM down 0.6%. Trading volumes and open interests also had different changes [5]. - The premium and discount rates of different futures contracts varied, for example, IF's premium rate for the current - month contract was 55.56%, and IH's discount rate for the current - month contract was - 3.76% [7].