Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, long - term supply and demand remains bearish. With the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, oil prices will still fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA slightly raises the forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC's October production data shows different trends for OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries. IEA also reports production changes in October. Overall, it is bearish [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil and related liquid demand growth in 2025 and 2026, with a neutral outlook [3] - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreases, while strategic petroleum reserve inventory increases. There are also changes in refined oil inventories, showing a bullish sign [3] - **Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC+ plans to increase production slightly in December, which may exacerbate concerns about market supply glut. Saudi Arabia's exports and production reach new highs, being bearish [3] - **Geopolitics (Short - Term)**: The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan and U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies are expected to have a bearish impact on oil prices [3] - **Macro - Finance (Short - Term)**: U.S. employment data and the Fed's interest - rate cut probability changes are bearish factors for oil prices [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rebounds; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [3] Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and the rise of the U.S. dollar index lead to a weak decline in international oil prices. As of November 21, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all fall [7] - **Month - to - Month Spread & Domestic - Foreign Spread**: Near - month spreads weaken, while domestic - foreign spreads strengthen [11] - **Forward Curve**: Near - month spreads strengthen [24] - **Crack Spread**: Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel crack spreads all strengthen [31][43] Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In October 2025, global crude oil production decreases according to EIA. Different organizations report different production trends for OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries. U.S. production also shows changes [65][90] - **Inventory**: U.S. commercial inventory decreases, and Cushing inventory also declines. Northwest European crude oil inventory rises, while Singapore fuel oil inventory falls [91][99] - **Demand**: In the U.S., gasoline implied demand decreases, and refinery operating rates increase. In China, refinery weekly crude oil processing volume shows different trends, and refinery profits improve [109][127] - **Macro - Finance**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December decreases, and the U.S. dollar index rebounds [140] - **CFTC Positioning**: Speculative net short positions in WTI crude oil increase [143] Team Introduction - The energy and chemical research center team of Guomao Futures has 6 members with diverse professional backgrounds and rich experience in fundamental and spot - futures research. The team has won many awards [155]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the short - term market has no obvious drivers, and it is expected to be mainly in a range - bound state, which is rated as "oscillating" [3] Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is declining slightly, and the futures market is oscillating weakly. Factors such as supply, demand, inventory, profit, and valuation all have different impacts on the market, resulting in an overall situation of weak fluctuations [3] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 tons to 84 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. There were regional differences in load changes [3] - **Demand**: Alumina production declined, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 90.09%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59%. The comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remained flat [3] - **Inventory**: Although there was some destocking, the inventory of sample enterprises increased. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 427,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.32% and a year - on - year increase of 80.65%. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage ratio increased [3] - **Profit**: The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 97%. The average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31.90% [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price was neutral, the absolute futures price was low, and the near - month contract was at a discount [3] - **Macro Policy**: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector subsided, and the market traded based on fundamentals [3] - **Investment View and Strategy**: The short - term market is expected to oscillate. There are no suggestions for unilateral and arbitrage trading [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The futures market was range - bound. The Shandong spot market was weak, and the futures had weak bottom support. The liquid chlorine price was higher than in the first half of the year, and the chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. The subsequent supply pressure may increase, and the spot price is expected to decline oscillatingly [9] - **Spot Market**: The spot price was declining slightly [7] - **Position**: The total position increased, and the far - month contracts saw an increase in positions [25] Part Three: Fundamental Data of Caustic Soda Supply and Demand - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply was tight, and electricity prices rose [33] - **Production**: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased [37] - **Chlor - Alkali Profit**: The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit decreased [38] - **Downstream Price**: The alumina price declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [41] - **Alumina**: Alumina production recovered, and inventory accumulated. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new plants, the production rate in Henan increased significantly [53][54] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum demand entered the seasonal off - season, and production started to decline [64][65] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The production rate rebounded [72] - **Subsequent Maintenance**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans, including full - stop, half - load, and planned maintenance at different times [77]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纸浆周报（SP)】 纸浆交易逻辑转向"弱需求"，考虑1-5反套 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-24 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号： 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 F03134647 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 纸浆交易逻辑转向"弱需求"，考虑1-5反套 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 智利Arauco公司10月针叶浆银星报价680美元/吨，阔叶浆明星报价540美元/吨，本色浆金星报价590美元/吨，进口报价总体表现为针叶 | 供给 | 偏空 | | | 浆下降，阔叶浆上涨的情况；2025年10月中国纸浆产量为208.4万吨，环比上涨10.2%，纸浆供给端较为宽松。 | | | | | 需求 | 中性偏多 | 主要木浆用纸产量基本保持稳定，白卡纸价格出现明显上涨且有去库的趋势，生活用纸价格略有上涨，其余纸种保持稳定。 | | | 截 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - favorable expectations support the rubber price to steadily rise tentatively. Some cis - butadiene rubber plants are planned for scheduled rotation maintenance, but the overall operating rate is gradually recovering. The trading center of butadiene has moved up, the mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber has been gradually raised, the synthetic processing profit is still good, and the futures price fluctuates strongly [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of November 20, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,700 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton. In the Shandong market, the price of cis - butadiene rubber was in a stalemate, with the spot price ranging from 10,000 to 10,800 yuan/ton. The cost support strengthened, driving the supply and market prices to rise slightly, but downstream resistance to price increases emerged [6]. - The report also presents price data of various synthetic rubber products such as butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber, including ex - factory prices and market prices, as well as their daily and weekly changes [7][8]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Butadiene: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 115,600 tons (a 1.75% increase), with a capacity utilization rate of 72.53%. Some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, while Guangxi Petrochemical stably increased production, leading to an overall increase in total production [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: The high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant of Zhenhua New Materials restarted, the cis - butadiene rubber plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance, and the cis - butadiene plant of Maoming Petrochemical is expected to undergo regular maintenance next week. The high - cis cis - butadiene rubber production last week was 29,200 tons (a 3.88% increase), with a capacity utilization rate of 72.64% [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - Semi - steel tires: The semi - steel tire market remained stable during the period. The all - season tire market was still dull, with channels mainly replenishing inventory based on rigid demand, and the inventory clearance rhythm did not change significantly. The supply of winter tires was abundant, and terminal sales advanced steadily [3]. - All - steel tires: This week, the all - steel tire market was relatively stable compared to last week, with weak trading. Due to the seasonal off - peak season, demand weakened, channel inventory was relatively sufficient, and merchants' willingness to restock was limited. However, as inventory is digested and monthly purchase tasks are due, agents are still expected to make purchases in the next cycle [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Butadiene: Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 39,800 tons, a 37.24% increase from the previous week. Most refinery plants were operating stably, but some enterprises' inventory increased due to downstream load and external sales trading rhythm. Port inventory increased due to relatively concentrated vessel arrivals and slow spot price increases [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: The combined inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 31,510 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week. Raw material buyers were actively following up, the cost support for cis - butadiene rubber strengthened slightly, production enterprise inventory increased, and trading enterprise inventory changed slightly [3]. 3.4 Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 335 yuan/ton, in East China was - 135 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 85 yuan/ton [3]. - Spread/Price Ratio: The RU - BR spread was 4855 yuan/ton (a 1.78% increase); the NR - BR spread was 1900 yuan/ton (a 4.40% increase); the BR - SC price ratio was 0.21 [3]. 3.5 Profit Analysis - Butadiene: The production gross profit from butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1514 yuan/ton, and that from C4 extraction was 194.88 yuan/ton [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 784 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 7.91% [3]. 3.6 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The US Department of Labor reported that the non - farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The Department of Labor also revised down the non - farm payroll data for July and August [3]. - US sanctions on top Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil took effect on November 21 [3]. - There are expectations that China and the US will reach an agreement to reduce tariffs on November 27 [3]. - Delegations from Ukraine and the US will hold consultations in Switzerland on the parameters of a possible future peace agreement with Russia [3]. - China has taken counter - measures due to remarks by the Japanese Prime Minister on the Taiwan issue, leading to a deterioration in Sino - Japanese relations [3]. 3.7 Investment Views and Trading Strategies - Investment View: The overall operating rate of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually recovering. The trading center of butadiene has moved up, the mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber has been gradually raised, the synthetic processing profit is still good, and the futures price fluctuates strongly [3]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, there is no recommendation. For arbitrage, pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance conditions, and geopolitical situations [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-11-24 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 03 铁矿石 铁 矿 基 本 面 依 然 偏 弱 ， 上 方 压 力 明 确 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 钢材 02 焦煤焦炭 价 格 低 位 区 间 震 荡 ， 等 待 新 驱 动 焦 炭 提 降 预 期 增 强 ， 盘 面 贴 水 计 价 2 - 3 轮预期 01 PART ONE 钢材 钢材：价格低位区间震荡，等待新驱动 | G国贸期货 | | --- | | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周铁水产量弱稳，未能延续上涨，当周铁 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE:宏观情绪偏弱 ，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周，我国LLDPE产量总计在30.46吨，较上周下跌1.20%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率82.71%，较上周期减少了0.43个百分点。本周期装 | | | | 置情况来看，内中天合创、中英石化、万华化学、吉林石化等装置存在检修情况，存量检修装置多于周后期重启，因此产能利用率环比下跌。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期+0.2%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-0.1%；PE包装膜开工率较前期+0.5%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游制品 平均开工率较前期+0.2%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-0.1%； ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Corn Series Data Daily Report [3] - Researcher: Huang Xianglan from the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4] - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [4] Group 2: Price and Data Information Spot Prices - Corn Spot: Prices in various regions on November 21st remained mostly stable, with some exceptions like Inner Mongolia - Tongliao up 20 yuan/ton and Inner Mongolia - Chifeng up 30 yuan/ton. For example, Jinzhou Port FOB price was 2220 yuan/ton, and Heilongjiang - Harbin was 2030 yuan/ton [5]. - Corn Starch Spot: The price in Jilin Province was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - Wheat Spot: Prices in Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu were 2534 yuan/ton, 2518 yuan/ton, and 2525 yuan/ton respectively, with Jiangsu up 2 yuan/ton [5]. Futures Prices - Corn Main Contract Closing Price: 2241 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, with a C01 - 05 spread of -57 [5]. - Corn Starch Main Contract Closing Price: 2590 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan, with a CS01 - 05 spread of -66 [5]. International Data - US Corn Closing Price: 437.75 cents per bushel, with an imported US corn duty - paid price of 2149.25 yuan/ton and an estimated profit of 220.75 yuan/ton. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.11 [5]. Spread Data - Starch - Corn (Main Continuous): 349; Starch - Corn (Jilin Spot Average): 440 [5]. Inventory Data - North Port Corn Inventory: 117.0 million tons; Guangdong Port Corn Inventory - Domestic: 27.3 million tons; Deep - processing Corn Inventory - Northeast: 177.5 million tons; Guangdong Port Corn Inventory - Foreign: 35.5 million tons; Deep - processing Corn Inventory - North China: 75.4 million tons [5] Group 3: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis Supply - Northeast production areas face concentrated supply pressure later, with attention on the selling pressure from December to January. The 25/26 planting cost continues to decline, the sown area is slightly reduced, the yield per unit is good, and a bumper harvest is expected. Imported grain policy restrictions continue, and the supply of imported grains is shrinking [5]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies aim to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. Enterprises with low inventory have a rigid demand for replenishing corn, and deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs. Channel traders have a strong purchasing willingness [5]. Inventory - Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at North Ports is slow, while the corn inventory at South Ports is rising. With the supplement of imported grains, the overall grain inventory is increasing. With the addition of new - season corn, ports are expected to be in the inventory - accumulation stage. Feed enterprise inventory is low, and deep - processing corn is seasonally accumulating inventory [5]. Group 4: Core View - In the short term, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tension in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory lead to a temporary supply shortage, postponing the selling pressure. Before the supply pressure is fully released, the market's ability to accept high - priced corn is limited. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and will face pressure tests later. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress, logistics, and weather [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Recently, the PX market has shown a rebound due to multiple factors. Despite the end of some planned maintenance and the gradual recovery of production capacity, PX output is still limited. This is mainly driven by two key factors: the soaring gasoline profit margin, which prompts refineries to reduce raw material input in aromatic units and increase gasoline production; and the drop of benzene prices to a near - three - year low, leading refineries to lower the load of reforming and STDP units to suppress benzene output, thus restricting PX supply. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester operation remains stable with a load above 90%, and domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" period has ended, downstream weaving has performed well, and export demand may improve. The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow these trends [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Data Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price dropped from 4630 to 4615, a decrease of 15; MEG inner - market price fell from 3885 to 3852, a decrease of 33; PTA closing price declined from 4696 to 4666, a decrease of 30; MEG closing price decreased from 3822 to 3808, a decrease of 14; 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price dropped from 6370 to 6340, a decrease of 30; short - fiber basis increased from 110 to 126, an increase of 16; 12 - 1 spread remained unchanged at 50; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5400; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 970 to 940, a decrease of 30; East China water bottle chip price dropped from 5716 to 5682, a decrease of 34; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price dropped from 5716 to 5682, a decrease of 34; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price dropped from 5816 to 5782, a decrease of 34; outer - market water bottle chip price dropped from 760 to 755, a decrease of 5; bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 456 to 446, a decrease of 10; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3930 to 3960, an increase of 30; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300; cotton 328 price dropped from 14340 to 14335, a decrease of 5; polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1656 to 1678, an increase of 22; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price increased from 7035 to 7080, an increase of 45; hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 575 to 644, an increase of 69; primary low - melting - point short - fiber price increased from 7480 to 7580, an increase of 100 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber dropped 68 to 6162. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production factories were stable, while those of traders declined. Customers replenished goods at low prices, and the trading volume in the intermediate links increased, but the production and sales of factories were average. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6080 - 6460 in cash, tax - included and self - picked; in the North China market, it was 6200 - 6580 in cash, tax - included and delivered; in the Fujian market, it was 6150 - 6350 in cash, tax - included and delivered [2] - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5660 - 5780 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures were weakly operating. Most offers on the supply side were lowered, the market trading atmosphere was rather dull, downstream terminal purchases were mainly for rigid demand, and the market sentiment was cautious [2] Operational Indicators - Direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, an increase of 0.95%; polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 35.00% to 33.00%, a decrease of 2.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the stock index's oscillatory adjustment, and the stock index is expected to rise further when a new driving force emerges. The bottom - support function of Central Huijin provides a buffer for the index, and the downside risk is expected to be controllable. In the short term, attention can be focused on overseas liquidity change signals and whether domestic policies will be implemented ahead of schedule [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate and Bond Market - **Interest Rate Changes**: DROO1 closed at 1.32 with a - 4.43bp change, DR007 at 1.44 with a - 4.49bp change, GC001 at 1.49 with a 43.50bp change, GC007 at 1.55 with a 6.50bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with a - 0.10bp change, and LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds closed at 1.40, 1.59, and 1.82 respectively, with changes of 0.15bp, 0.26bp, and 0.51bp. The 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.06 with a - 4.00bp change [4] - **Central Bank Operations**: Last week, the central bank conducted 1676 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations. With 1122 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 1354 billion yuan. Considering the 120 billion yuan of treasury cash time deposits maturing, the net injection (including treasury cash) was 1234 billion yuan. This week, 1676 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 900 billion yuan of MLF maturing on Tuesday and 300 billion yuan of 182 - day outright reverse repurchases maturing on Friday [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Stock Index Performance**: On the day, the CSI 300 closed at 4454 with a - 2.44% change, the SSE 50 at 2956 with a - 1.74% change, the CSI 500 at 6817 with a - 3.46% change, and the CSI 1000 at 7068 with a - 3.72% change. Last week, the CSI 300 fell 3.77% to 4453.6, the SSE 50 fell 2.72% to 2955.9, the CSI 500 fell 5.78% to 6817.4, and the CSI 1000 fell 5.8% to 7067.7. The Shenwan primary industry index coefficients all declined, with power equipment (- 10.5%), comprehensive (- 9.2%), basic chemicals (- 7.5%), commercial retail (- 7.2%), and steel (- 7%) leading the decline [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 29.8%, 29.7%, 40.9%, and 52.5% respectively, while the open interest of IF and IH decreased by 0.7% and 2.8%, and that of IC and IM increased by 3.8% and 10.2% respectively. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 155.06 billion yuan compared with the previous week [6] - **Reasons for Market Movement**: On Friday, the stock index opened low and closed low, mainly affected by the intensified impact of overseas markets. The US non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, increasing the divergence on whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December, and the technology sector represented by NVIDIA faced doubts, leading to concerns about the continuation of the technology stock market. Currently, the A - share market lacks a clear driving force, trading volume is shrinking, and economic data in October is under pressure. Policy support is still needed [7] 3.3 Futures Premium and Discount - **IF Premium and Discount**: The premium rates of the next - month, next - quarter, and current - quarter contracts are 7.95%, 3.94%, and 4.07% respectively [8] - **IH Premium and Discount**: The premium rates of the next - month, next - quarter, and current - quarter contracts are 4.49%, 1.80%, and 1.36% respectively [8] - **IC Premium and Discount**: The premium rates of the next - month, next - quarter, and current - quarter contracts are 9.76%, 9.69%, and 10.81% respectively [8] - **IM Premium and Discount**: The premium rates of the next - month, next - quarter, and current - quarter contracts are 9.83%, 11.69%, and 12.25% respectively [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, and A - shares lack a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are awaited for further index upward movement [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - There are various trends and influencing factors for different commodities, such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, with most prices expected to maintain a volatile trend, and some having specific supply - demand and macro - factor - related outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current macro - level is in a vacuum, A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, and short - term market differences will be digested in index shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are needed for further upward movement [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central - bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The expectation of a December Fed rate cut has cooled, causing copper price to回调. However, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, and there are still disturbances at the mine end, so the callback range is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, industrial - side driving forces are limited, and macro - sentiment is volatile, so the aluminum price is running in a high - level shock [1]. - **Alumina**: With domestic alumina production capacity continuously releasing, production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: There are signs of short - term domestic improvement in the fundamentals, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut, the zinc price is expected to maintain a shock trend [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed has large internal differences on the December rate cut, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. Recently, the planned production cut of Indonesian intermediate products may affect about 6000 metal tons in July. If the macro - sentiment improves, the nickel price has a repair expectation. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will continue to be in a surplus pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut are large, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The price of raw - material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. The November production cut of steel mills is limited. The stainless - steel futures are searching for the bottom in shock [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's internal differences are increasing, and the macro - sentiment is expected to be volatile. The long - term view on tin is bullish due to the significant decline in Indonesian tin export scale, unrepaired tin - ore supply, and expected terminal - downstream demand [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Fed officials have soothed the market, and the probability of a December rate cut has rebounded. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of medium - long - term capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation has a marginal increase. Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the southwest's start - up is weaker than in previous years, with the impact of the dry season weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule in November has decreased [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: There has been a joint production cut [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is supply - side resumption and production increase. But there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Building Materials and Energy - **Rebar**: The industry off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. In the short - term macro - vacuum period, the basis is acceptable, and it is advisable to participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage or use option strategies to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The direct demand is okay, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, this round of decline is close to the end. The coke price at 1630 reflects the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, and coking - coal contracts are also close to key support levels. Further decline requires continuous increase in coking - coal supply. Downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December [1]. - **Glass**: It follows the glass trend, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation indicates that this round of decline is close to the end, and the driving force may need more time. Downstream is expected to start replenishment around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production and reduced exports in the origin, and the near - month pressure is still high. Domestic ship - buying is active, and the basis is expected to be weak. The risk lies in a significant production cut in the origin [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor of "US delaying the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive expected difference for US soybeans and US soybean oil. Under high domestic crushing, the basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the replenishment of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and the trend remains unchanged, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream start - up remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be under pressure and follow the raw - sugar price [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight logistics in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory have led to a temporary supply shortage. The selling pressure is postponed, and the market's acceptance of high - price corn is limited before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. From December to January, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop. MO5 is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. Pulp and Wood - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products, and the upward space is limited. After new warehouse - receipts are registered, 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but it has been priced in the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the profit - loss ratio of short - selling is low, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Livestock - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. With demand support and the un - cleared slaughter weight, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude - oil trend in the short - term, the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost - end support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and high - start - up and high - inventory have not been the main factors suppressing the price. The short - term price shows signs of stopping the decline [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of reforming devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The crude - oil price decline has led to a fall in the ethylene - glycol price. The increase in coal price has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol price [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the start - up rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US pure - benzene price has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads [1]. - **Urea**: There is support from anti - involution and the cost end, but the export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient [1]. - **PF**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the start - up load is high, the supply pressure is large, and the downstream improvement is limited [1]. - **PP**: The propylene monomer price is high, providing strong cost support. The supply pressure is increasing due to fewer future overhauls and new - capacity release [1]. - **PVC**: The delivery of Guangxi alumina has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the delivery rhythm has slowed down. There is a risk of a short squeeze due to low absolute prices and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamental situation is continuously loose, and the CP/FEI price has weakened. The domestic spot fundamental situation is stable, with price - valuation repair, restarting of combustion demand, and chemical rigid - demand support [1]. Shipping - **Asia - Europe Line**: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].