1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping market shows a weak and volatile trend. The main reason is that CM4 raised the November freight rate to 3000, and MSK kept the freight rate for the second week of October at 1400, which increased the expectation of stopping the decline. However, the confidence in price increases gradually declined, and there was a reduction in positions and a price drop before the holiday [7]. - In late September, shipping companies collectively lowered prices to compete for goods, and the freight rate once dropped to 1300 US dollars/FEU. Before the peak season at the end of the year, Maersk took the lead in announcing a 400 - dollar/FEU increase for the second half of October. But with the decline in both supply and demand in October, it is likely to return to the off - season market. Subsequently, European routes will focus on stabilizing and supporting prices during the transition between the off - season and peak season, and it is difficult for shipping companies' announced price increases to materialize [8]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct a long - short spread trade between the October and December contracts [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1115, 1087, 1460, 921, 2385, and 971 respectively, with corresponding declines of - 6.97%, - 2.93%, - 10.76%, - 22.80%, - 6.73%, and - 7.70% compared to the previous values. The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1120 and 1485 respectively, with declines of - 6.12% and - 9.34% [5]. - **Contract Freight Index**: The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC5602, and EC2604 are 1452.7, 1595.0, 1115.0, 1756.3, 1667.0, and 1253.0 respectively, with declines of - 2.08%, - 1.37%, - 2.11%, - 1.16%, - 1.07%, and - 1.23% compared to the previous values [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 930, 530, 29314, 20683, 8852, and 9110 respectively. The position changes are - 8, - 12, - 3117, - 1012, 84, and 11 respectively [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current monthly spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 are - 641.3, 89.3, and 503.3 respectively, with changes of - 3.3, - 2.7, and - 5.1 compared to the previous values [5]. 3.2 Market News and Analysis - Trans - Pacific shipping companies are increasing capacity cuts to curb the decline in freight rates. On the east - west trans - Pacific routes, the spot freight rate has fallen below the fixed contract price signed by medium - sized retailers in May. In the next four weeks, trans - Pacific liner companies will accelerate the implementation of blank sailings to stabilize the continuously falling spot freight rate. The market is unusually weak before the Golden Week this year [6]. - The spot prices this week: GEMINI in early October dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The market FMK freight rate center in late September was at 1500 [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints -节前市场成交量萎缩，避险情绪升温，股指短期向上突破概率降低，预计延续震荡走势；节后市场关注点转向增量政策，包括重要会议与政策动向，市场对年内降息有期待，促消费与稳地产政策蓄势待发；建议节前控制股指仓位，节后关注政策或资金面变化带来的突破机会 [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Interest Rates and Bond Yields - DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a -0.23bp change, DR007 at 1.59 with a 3.17bp change, GC001 at 1.34 with a -2.00bp change, GC007 at 1.49 with a -38.50bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.36 with a 0.50bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.62 with a 0.50bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a 0.75bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.20 with a 2.00bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 2886 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 2405 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 481 billion yuan [3] Market Liquidity Outlook - This week, 5166 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 2405 billion and 2761 billion maturing on Monday and Tuesday respectively. Additionally, 3000 billion yuan of 182 - day term repurchase agreements will mature on Tuesday [4] - The central bank governor said that China's monetary policy adheres to self - orientation and balances internal and external factors, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [4] Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.54% to 4620, the SSE 50 rose 1.09% to 2973, the CSI 500 rose 1.51% to 7351, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.36% to 7498. The trading volume of the two markets reached 21615 billion yuan, an increase of 146 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] - Most industry sectors closed higher, with energy metals, securities, batteries, and precious metals rising significantly, while the education sector led the decline [5] Stock Index Futures Performance - IF contracts: IF当月 rose 1.8%, IF volume increased by 37.2% to 166084, and IF open interest increased by 93 to 284149 [5] - IH contracts: IH当月 rose 1.0%, IH volume increased by 77.5% to 85621, and IH open interest increased by 18.6% to 113877 [5] - IC contracts: IC当月 rose 1.9%, IC volume increased by 17.9% to 160425, and IC open interest increased by 1.7% to 256603 [5] - IM contracts: IM当月 rose 1.7%, IM volume increased by 17.1% to 284619, and IM open interest increased by 0.7% to 367256 [5] Stock Index Futures Premium/Discount - IF升贴水: 0.00% for next - month contract, 1.56% for current - month contract, 1.51% for current - quarter contract, 1.88% for next - quarter contract [7] - IH升贴水: - 0.65% for next - month contract, - 0.73% for current - month contract, - 0.45% for current - quarter contract, - 0.34% for next - quarter contract [7] - IC升贴水: 2.14% for next - month contract, 6.85% for current - month contract, 7.26% for current - quarter contract, 8.42% for next - quarter contract [7] - IM升贴水: 3.69% for next - month contract, 8.64% for current - month contract, 9.64% for current - quarter contract, 10.85% for next - quarter contract [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The PTA market shows signs of recovery in processing fees due to improved demand, delayed new plant commissioning, and some companies' production cut for price protection. The polyester load remains high without significant inventory accumulation, indicating optimistic market demand, especially in exports. The promotion by mainstream factories has led to a small peak in pre - National Day stockpiling. In a low - processing - fee and anti - involution environment, the PTA operating rate may further improve. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East China ports continues to decline, and the port is expected to continue destocking. Although overseas imports are expected to decline, domestic plant commissioning keeps the price under pressure, and coal - based ethylene glycol plants are also resuming production. The overall polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load is rising [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price increased from 491.3 yuan/barrel on 2025/9/26 to 492.6 yuan/barrel on 2025/9/29, up 1.3 yuan [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price rose from 814 to 817, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 206 to 209 [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 increased from 4646 yuan/ton to 4652 yuan/ton, the spot price remained at 4590 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 222.5 yuan/ton to 200.3 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 273.5 yuan/ton to 267.3 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 decreased by 4600 to 28114 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 increased from 4213 yuan/ton to 4224 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 135.48 yuan/ton to - 133.86 yuan/ton. The MEG内盘 price increased from 4294 to 4295 [2]. - **Industry Operating Rate**: The PX operating rate remained at 85.57%, the PTA operating rate increased from 77.23% to 78.67%, the MEG operating rate remained at 62.62%, and the polyester load remained at 88.74% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price increased from 6605 to 6650, and its cash flow increased from - 8 to 37. FDY150D/96F price increased from 6790 to 6825, and its cash flow increased from - 323 to - 288. DTY150D/48F price remained at 7870, and its cash flow remained at 57. The long - filament sales rate increased from 40% to 70% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6495 to 6480, and its cash flow decreased from 232 to 217. The short - fiber sales rate decreased from 60% to 52% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: Semi - bright chip price increased from 5745 to 5750, and its cash flow increased from 32 to 37. The chip sales rate increased from 38% to 62% [2]. Device Maintenance Two PTA plants in South China with a total capacity of 5 million tons have reduced their loads due to weather, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic PTA plants are gradually returning, and domestic PTA production is rising. PTA profit is still constrained by over - capacity and new plant commissioning. Previously, due to pessimistic demand and new plant commissioning expectations, PTA processing fees were low. Recently, demand has improved, new plant commissioning has been postponed, and some enterprises have cut production to maintain prices, so PTA processing fees show signs of recovery [2] - Polyester load remains above 90%, but there is no significant inventory accumulation, indicating that market demand is still optimistic at low prices, especially export demand. Promotions by mainstream factories have led to a small peak in National Day备货. Under the environment of low processing fees and market anti - involution, PTA operating rate may further improve [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Data Spot and Futures Price Changes - PTA spot price remained at 4590 from September 26th to September 29th, 2025; MEG inner - market price increased from 4294 to 4295; PTA closing price rose from 4646 to 4652; MEG closing price increased from 4213 to 4224 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6495 to 6480; short - fiber basis increased from 102 to 110; 10 - 11 spread decreased from 2 to 22 [2] Market Conditions of Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - In the short - fiber market, the price of polyester staple fiber production plants is stable, and the price of traders is in a sideways shock. Downstream buyers purchase as needed, and on - site transactions are limited. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber varies in different regions [2] - In the bottle - chip market, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5790 - 5890 yuan/ton, with the average price down 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures first fell and then rose, supply offers were mixed, downstream terminals mainly watched, and market transactions were scarce [2] Operating Rates and Production and Sales - The weekly load of direct - spinning short - fiber decreased from 93.90% to 94.40%; polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 45.00% to 52.00%; the weekly opening rate of polyester yarn remained at 63.50%; the weekly load index of recycled cotton - type increased from 51.00% to 51.50% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: The futures prices of steel were slightly weak on Monday, with spot prices following the decline. Although the trading volume remained above 100,000 tons, speculative demand was lacking. As the long - holiday approached and restocking neared completion, the spot trading activity cooled further. Macro - level, US interest rate cuts are favorable for liquidity and risk appetite in the medium - term, but there is no obvious expected trading in the short - term. At the industry level, the peak - season demand for steel was flat, and the improvement in the apparent demand for building materials was marginal, unable to form a strong upward drive. With the approaching holiday, restocking is almost over, and cost support has temporarily ended. High steel production raises concerns about the future market. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach on the single - side and reduce positions during the holiday [2][7]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The fundamentals of silicon iron and manganese silicon are concerning. Silicon iron has high supply, weak demand, and neutral inventory, while manganese silicon has high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short - term alloy plant profits are near the break - even point, and the motivation to maintain production is high. Before the holiday, they mainly follow the black - metal sector. The weak fundamentals will suppress price increases. Industry self - discipline is not optimistic, and large - scale production cuts are unlikely. With the arrival of the peak seasons (Golden September and Silver October), the terminal demand needs verification, and the risk of a decline in iron - water and electric - furnace starts is accumulating, which may directly impact the demand for these two alloys [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The first round of coke price increases has been partially implemented, but the market trading sentiment has weakened due to the decline in the futures market. The coking - coal auction in the production areas has mostly fallen. The futures market of coking coal and coke has been weak, possibly due to concerns about weak terminal demand after the holiday. Although the fundamentals of steel are improving marginally before the holiday, the market is worried about the continuation of weak terminal demand after the holiday and the weakening of cost support. It is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday and sell on rallies for hedging [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The peak - season demand for steel has been flat, and the inventory has changed from accumulation to slight de - stocking, mainly due to the reduction in steel production. The flat demand cannot drive a strong rebound. High iron - water production throughout the year may lead to an oversupply of steel in the second half of the year if production is not reduced after the holiday. The support from inventory rotation for ore prices will disappear after the holiday, and the expected increase in iron - ore supply from Simandou restricts the price ceiling. The fundamentals of the black - metal market are expected to weaken after the National Day holiday, but the downward pressure is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Closing Prices and Changes**: On September 29, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3155 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan (-1.31%); HC2605 at 3298 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan (-1.17%); J2605 at 1790 yuan/ton, down 72.5 yuan (-3.89%); JM2605 at 1239.5 yuan/ton, down 64.5 yuan (-4.95%). For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3097 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan (-1.34%); HC2601 at 3289 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan (-1.23%); J2601 at 1647 yuan/ton, down 71.5 yuan (-4.16%); JM2601 at 1154 yuan/ton, down 60.5 yuan (-4.98) [1]. - **Cross - Month Spreads**: On September 29, RB2601 - 2605 was - 58 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; HC2601 - 2605 was - 9 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan; J2601 - 2605 was 21.5 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; JM2601 - 2605 was - 85.5 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan [1]. - **Spreads, Ratios, and Profits**: On September 29, the coil - to - rebar spread was 192 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.95, up 0.01; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.43, up 0.01; the rebar's on - paper profit was - 77.85 yuan/ton, up 15.65 yuan; the coking on - paper profit was 112.18 yuan/ton, up 11.03 yuan [1]. Spot Market - **Steel Spot Prices**: On September 29, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Tangshan billet was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3370 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [1]. - **Other Spot Prices**: On September 29, the price of Qingdao Port's PB fines was 779 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; Qingdao Port's super - special powder was 695 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; Ganqimaodu's coking coal concentrate was 730 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke was 1285 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Tangshan's Mongolian No. 5 coking coal concentrate was 1422 yuan/ton, down [7]. - **Basis**: On September 29, the basis of HC was 51 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the basis of RB was 123 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the basis of J was - 74.37 yuan/ton, down 45.5 yuan; the basis of JM was 161 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Crude oil [1] - Bearish: Short fiber, Styrene [1] - Volatile: Index, Treasury bonds, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Hot-rolled coil, Iron ore, Coke, Palm oil, Soybean oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live pigs, Asphalt, Natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Black liquor, PVC, LPG, Shipping freight [1] Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by multiple factors such as asset shortages, weak economies, mine production disruptions, seasonal demand changes, and geopolitical situations. Before the National Day holiday, market sentiment is volatile, and funds have a demand for risk aversion. Different industries and varieties show different trends, and investors are advised to control positions and pay attention to supply - demand and macro - economic changes [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic and Financial - Index: Long - term bullish, but the probability of a unilateral upward pattern before the National Day holiday is low. Suggest controlling positions [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and weak economies are beneficial, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk prompts suppress the upward space [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Gold: May fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, but beware of increased volatility during the National Day holiday [1] - Silver: Expected to run strongly in the short term, but beware of sharp fluctuations during the National Day holiday. Suggest controlling positions [1] - Copper: The accident at the Indonesian Grasberg mine has reduced production by 35% (annual output of 800,000 metric tons of metal), intensifying concerns about tight global copper supply. The price may run strongly in the short term [1] - Aluminum: The impact of macroscopic factors has weakened, and the price may fluctuate based on fundamentals [1] - Alumina: Production and inventory are increasing, pressuring the spot price, but the price is approaching the cost line, and the downward space is limited [1] - Zinc: The supply delay of Huoshaoyun has improved the fundamentals, but high social inventories are still pressuring the price [1] - Nickel: Short - term volatility may be upward, but there is still long - term pressure from the surplus of primary nickel. Suggest short - term trading in intervals and light positions during the holiday [1] - Stainless steel: Raw material prices are firm, social inventories are increasing, and the futures price may fluctuate in the short term. Suggest short - term trading and waiting for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1] - Tin: The demand in the peak season is expected to improve, and low - buying opportunities can be concerned [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The upward driving force of the industry is insufficient, and there is a risk of weakening supply and demand in the fourth quarter. Suggest reducing positions during the holiday [1] - Hot - rolled coil: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward opportunities due to good commodity sentiment [1] - Iron ore: The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery and possible weakening demand and high inventories [1] - Coke and Coking Coal: After the coking coal 05 contract reached a new high and then sharply corrected, before the Fourth Plenary Session of the 10th Central Committee, the policy may enter a window period. Before the holiday, long - position holders should gradually exit the market, and if there is a rally, short - selling hedging is the main strategy [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The end of the Argentine tax - exemption policy and Indian purchases impact the price, but the September production reduction in Malaysia and biodiesel demand support it. The price is expected to recover from the previous over - decline [1] - Soybean oil: The end of the Argentine tax - exemption policy and domestic purchases may supplement the supply, weakening the fourth - quarter destocking expectation. The price is expected to recover from the over - decline. Suggest waiting and seeing [1] - Rapeseed oil: The pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term remains unchanged. Positive spreads are preferred [1] - Cotton: In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate widely within a range, and there may be pressure in the long term with the listing of new cotton [1] - Sugar: The high proportion of sugar production may be adjusted downward, and the raw sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upside space is limited due to oversupply. In China, the import increase and processing plant operation still bring pressure, and short - selling at high prices is still recommended [1] - Corn: Without obvious policy and weather changes, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. Pay attention to traders' purchasing rhythm and policy changes [1] - Soybean: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing margin is poor, and the price has support at the bottom. Suggest buying at low prices. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American planting - season weather [1] - Pulp: The bottom range of the pulp futures has initially emerged, but there is no bullish driver yet. Pay attention to the warehouse - receipt cancellation volume after September delivery. The futures price will fluctuate [1] - Log: The fundamentals of logs have no obvious changes. The overseas quotation has decreased, and the spot price is firm. The log futures will fluctuate [1] - Live pigs: The pig slaughter continues to increase, the weight does not decrease significantly, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The market is generally bearish [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Driven by short - term geopolitical tensions and a second - consecutive - week decline in US crude oil inventories [1] - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by factors such as a super typhoon in South China, continuous inventory decline, and a significant reduction in RU warehouse receipts compared to the same period in previous years [1] - BR rubber: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the raw - material fundamentals are loose, the synthetic rubber supply is abundant, the downstream transactions are weakening, the warehouse receipts on the disk are sharply reduced, and the inter - month spread is widening. Pay attention to the capital - flow trend [1] - PTA: Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming production, the PTA output is increasing, the PTA basis is rapidly declining, the crude oil price is falling, the PX plant maintenance is postponed, and the downstream polyester profit is significantly repaired, with the operating load rising to 91% [1] - Ethylene glycol: The basis of ethylene glycol is strengthening, but the upcoming commissioning of the Yulong Petrochemical ethylene glycol plant puts pressure on the disk. The arrival of overseas ethylene glycol plants has decreased, but the hedging volume has increased after the price recovery [1] - Short fiber: Short - fiber plants are gradually resuming production, and the delivery willingness of market warehouse receipts has weakened as the price falls [1] - Styrene: The supply of pure benzene and styrene is continuously increasing after the end of maintenance, the Yulong Petrochemical plant is about to be commissioned, and the import pressure of domestic pure benzene is increasing due to the unopened South Korea - US price difference [1] - Black liquor: The export sentiment has eased, the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1] - PVC: The domestic PVC plants are gradually resuming production, the supply pressure is increasing, and the near - month warehouse receipts are abundant. The price will fluctuate weakly [1] - LPG: OPEC+ production increase and high domestic crude oil inventories suppress the upward momentum of LPG, the chemical demand is weak, and the profit negative feedback leads to a decline in the cost PG [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic soybean purchase and shipping profit is poor, and the disk valuation is low. Considering the cost, there is certain support below. It is recommended to mainly go long on dips. The future driver depends on China-US policies and South American planting season weather [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On September 29, the basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 7, and the basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Dongguan decreased by 6 to -3, and in Zhanjiang decreased by 6 to 17. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 183, a decrease of 10 [6] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the disk price difference (main contract) was 517, a decrease of 15. The exchange rate of US dollars to RMB was 7.1300, a decrease of 14.00, and the disk crushing profit was 290 yuan/ton [7] Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, the good rate of US soybeans has dropped to 61%. Recently, there has been less rainfall in the producing areas, and the good rate may continue to decline. The yield per unit of US soybeans may be lowered later. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. Currently, the purchase and shipping progress for November - January is slow. The supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [8][9] - In terms of demand, the short - term high inventory of pig and poultry breeding is expected to be maintained, supporting the feed demand. However, the policy is oriented to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the supply of pigs in the far - month. The cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high [9] Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level; the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased but is lower than that of last year. It is expected to still be in the inventory accumulation cycle in the short term; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the increase in demand leads to a supply - demand mismatch, which supports the futures price. However, in the long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged. The approaching traditional peak season of new energy vehicles creates downstream stocking demand, and with the increase in capacity electricity price and the expansion of the spot price difference, the economy of independent energy storage becomes apparent, resulting in strong installation demand. The continuous reduction of social inventory due to substantial terminal digestion and the active downstream stocking support the futures price. On the supply side, the overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,550 yuan, down 50 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,300 yuan, down 50 yuan [1] - The closing prices and price increases of lithium carbonate futures contracts: the price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 73,760 yuan, up 1.15%; lithium carbonate 2511 is 73,920 yuan, up 0.93%; lithium carbonate 2512 is 73,960 yuan, up 0.85%; lithium carbonate 2601 is 73,900 yuan, up 0.98%; lithium carbonate 2602 is 73,400 yuan, up 0.77% [1] 3.2 Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 858 yuan, and the prices of different grades of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone are also given, such as lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) at 1140 yuan, lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) at 1875 yuan, phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) at 6150 yuan, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) at 7285 yuan [1][2] 3.3 Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,640 yuan, down 10 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 149,350 yuan, up 550 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 121,750 yuan, up 400 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 126,650 yuan, up 450 yuan [2] 3.4 Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2250 yuan, with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 370 yuan, down 1090 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 160 yuan, up 40 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 200 yuan, up 60 yuan [2] 3.5 Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 136,825 tons, down 706 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 33,492 tons, down 964 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 60,893 tons, up 1398 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 42,440 tons, down 1140 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 41,119 tons, up 790 tons [2] 3.6 Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 75,433 yuan, and the profit is - 2953 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is not clearly stated, and the profit is - 8238 yuan [3] 3.7 Company News - Longpan Times, a joint - venture company of CATL and Longpan Technology, stopped production on September 25th, most employees are on holiday, and it may resume production in November due to the stop of raw material supply from CATL's Yichun Shixiawo lithium mine [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of pulp have shown no signs of recovery. Pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts have not significantly decreased, and pulp futures are trending weakly. It is recommended to consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 29, 2025, SP2601 was priced at 5174, down 1.86% day - on - day and 2.16% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4878, down 2.75% day - on - day and 2.60% week - on - week; SP2505 was 5214, down 1.55% day - on - day and 1.92% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600, down 0.88% day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5150, down 0.96% day - on - day and week - on - week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, up 0.71% day - on - day and week - on - week [5] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars, down 2.78% month - on - month; Japanese pulp was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, with 0.00% month - on - month change [5] - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, with 0.00% month - on - month change [5] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month - on - month; hardwood pulp imports were 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month - on - month. Chinese pulp shipments were 162 tons, up 4.50% [5] - **Production**: In September 2025, hardwood pulp production was 23.8 tons; chemimechanical pulp production was 22.3 tons [5] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, down 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decrease. Futures delivery warehouse inventory was 23.5 tons [5] - **Demand**: In September 2025, offset paper production was 21.00 tons; coated paper production was 8.50 tons; tissue paper production was 28.07 tons; white cardboard production was 35.90 tons [5] Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 29, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 272, with a quantile level of 0.918; the Silver Star basis was 722, with a quantile level of 0.922 [5] - **Import Profit**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star had an import profit of - 121, with a quantile level of 0.429; hardwood pulp Goldfish had an import profit of - 94, with a quantile level of 0.554 [5] Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Chilean Arauco's September quotes showed a decrease in coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes and an increase in hardwood pulp quotes [5] - **Demand Side**: Current paper product demand remains at a stable level, paper product prices have not rebounded significantly, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [5] - **Inventory Side**: As of September 25, 2025, China's mainstream pulp port sample inventory was 203.3 tons, showing a de - stocking trend [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 29, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.35% to 866.52 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 3.92% to 10,939 yuan/kilogram [5]. - Recently, geopolitical tensions in Russia and the Middle East, and the possible shutdown of the US government have boosted risk - aversion sentiment, pushing up precious metal prices. The continuous expectation of interest rate cuts also supports precious metal prices. For silver, the good performance of US economic data strengthens the expectation of a soft landing of the US economy after preventive interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to the industrial attribute of silver, leading to an accelerated rise in silver prices [5]. - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties continue, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power games intensify, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long - term. The continuation of global central bank gold purchases will likely push the long - term center of gold prices higher [5]. - In the short - term, with the approaching of China's National Day holiday, investors are advised to be cautious about chasing up and hold light positions during the holiday, while enterprises are advised to do a good job in hedging to avoid possible sharp fluctuations during the holiday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On September 29, compared with September 26, London gold spot rose 2.0% to 3816.09 dollars/ounce, London silver spot rose 3.9% to 46.93 dollars/ounce, COMEX gold rose 1.9% to 3845.50 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 3.7% to 47.12 dollars/ounce, AU2510 rose 1.3% to 863.60 yuan/gram, AG2510 rose 3.0% to 10912.00 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 1.2% to 861.90 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 2.9% to 10880.00 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On September 29, compared with September 26, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 1.7 yuan/gram (up 193.1%), the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 32 yuan/kilogram (up 68.4%), the gold (TD - London) spread was - 10.29 yuan/gram (up 148.4%), the silver (TD - London) spread was - 1098 yuan/kilogram (up 13.1%), the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 79.14 (down 1.7%), the COMEX main ratio was 81.61 (down 1.7%), AU2512 - 2510 was 2.92 yuan/gram (down 16.1%), and AG2512 - 2510 was 27 yuan/kilogram (down 28.9%) [3]. Position Data - **ETF and Non - commercial Positions**: From September 25 to September 26, the gold ETF - SPDR rose 0.89% to 1005.72 tons, the silver ETF - SLV fell 0.18% to 15361.84024 tons. For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, the long positions rose 1.85% to 332808 contracts, the short positions rose 9.43% to 66059 contracts, and the net long positions rose 0.13% to 266749 contracts. For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, the long positions rose 0.97% to 72318 contracts, the short positions fell 0.21% to 20042 contracts, and the net long positions rose 1.43% to 52276 contracts [3]. Inventory Data - **SHFE and COMEX Inventories**: From September 26 to September 29, SHFE gold inventory rose 4.26% to 68628.00 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory rose 2.71% to 1189648.00 kilograms. From September 25 to September 26, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.06% to 39946410 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory rose 0.08% to 530344533 troy ounces [3]. Other Related Data - **Dollar Index, Bond Yields, etc.**: From September 26 to September 29, the dollar index fell 0.09% to 98.19, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.27% to 3.63%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.27% to 4.20%, NYMEX crude oil rose 0.48% to 6643.70, the dollar/yuan central parity rate fell 8.66% to 7.11, VIX fell 0.05% to 15.29, and the S&P 500 rose 0.59% to 65.19 [4].