1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of pulp have no signs of repair, the inventory at pulp ports and the number of warehouse receipts have no obvious reduction, and pulp futures are oscillating. It is recommended to consider the 11 - 1 reverse spread [5][6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 26, 2025, SP2601 was 5272, down 0.79% day - on - day and 0.83% week - on - week; SP2511 was 5016, down 0.87% day - on - day and 0.04% week - on - week; SP2505 was 5296, down 0.60% day - on - day and 0.71% week - on - week [5] - **Spot Prices**: On September 26, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5200, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4220, unchanged [5] - **Foreign Offer Prices**: In September 2025, the offer price of Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars, down 2.78% month - on - month; the offer price of a certain unnamed variety was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; the offer price of Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged [5] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5] 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China was 162 tons, up 4.50% [5] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, down 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decline. The inventory showed a de - stocking trend [5] - **Demand**: The current demand for paper products is basically stable, paper product prices have no obvious rebound, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [5] 3.3 Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 26, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 184, with a quantile level of 0.897; the Silver Star basis was 634, with a quantile level of 0.877 [5] - **Import Profit**: On September 26, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 71, with a quantile level of 0.497; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 124, with a quantile level of 0.523 [5] 3.4 Strategy - Consider the 11 - 1 reverse spread as the pulp fundamentals have no signs of repair, and the pulp port inventory and warehouse receipt numbers have no obvious reduction, with pulp futures oscillating [6]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.01% to 3853.3 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.58%, the North Securities 50 Index fell 1.37%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 1.24%, and the Wind All - A Index rose 0.17% [5] - The Wind A500 rose 0.54% and the CSI A500 rose 0.71%. A - shares had a full - day trading volume of 2.39 trillion yuan, compared with 2.35 trillion yuan the previous day [7] Index Data Index Quotes | Index | Closing Price | Trading Volume (Billion) | Turnover (Billion Yuan) | Increase/Decrease (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2952.7352 | 1586.67 | 54.32 | 0.45 | | CSI 300 | 4593.4875 | 0.60 | 6698.67 | - 0.37 | | CSI 1000 | 4647.45 | - | - | - | [3] CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading | Index | Call Option Volume (Million Contracts) | Put Option Volume (Million Contracts) | Option Volume (Million Contracts) | Call Option Open Interest (Million Contracts) | Put Option Open Interest (Million Contracts) | Open Interest (Million Contracts) | Volume PCR | Open Interest PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3.57 | 2.45 | 6.66 | 4.06 | 2.59 | 6.65 | 0.64 | 0.64 | | CSI 300 | 13.42 | 8.03 | 21.45 | 17.04 | 8.03 | 25.07 | 0.89 | 0.47 | | CSI 1000 | 22.91 | 12.69 | 35.6 | 13.28 | 10.22 | 23.5 | 0.81 | 0.77 | [3] Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility and historical volatility cones, as well as volatility smile curves for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, including data such as minimum, maximum, 10% quantile, 30% quantile, 60% quantile, 90% quantile, and current values for different time - periods (5 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, 120 - day) [3][4]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 |数据日报 供给方面,美豆优良率降至61%。近期产区降雨偏少,优良率或继续下调，美豆单产后续或存在下调空间:10月国内大豆预期开始去 | 库但四季度国内豆粕供应预期仍宽松，目前11-1买船进度偏慢。明年一季度的豆粕供应仍需补充。补充来源暂不确定。需求方面，生猪 | | | --- | --- | | 和禽类养殖短期预期维持高存栏。支撑同用需求，但政策导向控生猪存栏和体重，预期影响远月生猪铁应:豆粉性价比较高，提货后于 | | | 11 高位:本周豆箱下游现货成交有所放量。库存方面，国内大豆库存增至高位,油厂豆粕库存上升,但低于去年同期，预期短期的处于累 | | | 结 库周期:饲料企业豆粕库存天数上升。 | | | 整体来说，阿根廷出口完成任务恢复关税。内盎反弹，但相比于降税利空影响前，国内大豆进口量增加，因此今日未收复周二用线 | | | 。商务部表明，关于太豆贸易，美方应采取积极行动，取消相关不合理关税。因目前内驻价格已云贸易战升水，美盘对美豆卖压的反映 | | | 相对充分,若中美关系缓和预期利多CBOT盘面,从成本端利多内盘,M01以逢低做 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC market has rebounded. CM4 has raised the November freight rate to 3000, and MSK's unchanged 10 - second - week freight rate of 1400 has increased the expectation of a halt in the decline. MSK has set the late - October freight rate at 1800, a 400 increase from the early - October rate [6]. - In the European shipping market, based on IPMI data, the cargo volume will bottom out in October and turn around in November. From late - September to late - October, shipping companies are "grabbing cargoes", but the "ROLLINGPOOL" strategy in the off - season may intensify the decline in freight rates. It is expected that the offline freight rate will fall to the May low by late - October, and shipping companies will start to support the price through contracts after the cargo volume rebounds in November. The suspension of voyages during the National Day has limited impact on the market due to the low cargo volume. A price increase notice during the holiday, combined with pre - holiday cargoes, may drive up prices in the peak season [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) dropped by 14.31% to 1198, and the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) decreased by 0.45% to 1120. Rates for various routes such as SCFI - West America, SCFI - East America, and SCFI - Northwest Europe also declined significantly, with drops ranging from 8.84% to 31.07%. However, the SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 17.15% and 5.75% respectively [4]. - **EC Contracts**: The prices of EC contracts (EC2506, EC2608, etc.) showed an upward trend, with涨幅 ranging from 1.91% to 6.81%. The EC2606 and EC2608 contracts had a slight change in positions, while the EC2410 contract saw a significant decrease in positions by 5414. The month - spread values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 also changed, with the 10 - 12 spread decreasing by 28.0 and the 12 - 4 spread increasing by 62.5 [4]. 3.2 Market News - The goods transportation through the Kazakh border has been temporarily suspended due to the disagreement between the Kazakh and Russian governments on the customs union agreement, and the negotiation completion date is unknown. The Polish - Belarusian border may open on Tuesday or Wednesday this week [5]. - In the first week of September, the booking volume from China to the US decreased by nearly 26% year - on - year, and the booking volume from the US to China decreased by 18%. Tariffs remain a key variable for market fluctuations [5]. 3.3 Strategy - A positive spread strategy for the 10 - 12 period is recommended [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core View of the Report - Domestic PTA installations are gradually returning, leading to an increase in domestic PTA production, a rapid decline in PTA basis, and significant market pressure due to Hengli's concentrated sales. OPEC+ has increased oil production again, causing a sharp drop in crude oil prices and a contraction in the spread between PX and naphtha. Recently, sales and production have weakened, inventory has increased, and the polyester operating load has risen to 91% as the off - season approaches. However, due to the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of the basis, PTA has shown weak performance [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4525 to 4585, a change of 60; MEG inner - market price rose from 4301 to 4315, a change of 14; PTA closing price increased from 4626 to 4678, a change of 52; MEG closing price rose from 4234 to 4246, a change of 12 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6460 to 6500, a change of 40; short - fiber basis decreased from 149 to 83, a change of - 66; 10 - 11 spread decreased from 6 to 0, a change of - 6; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - Polyester bottle - chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets increased, with the average price rising by 55 yuan/ton. The prices of various types of bottle - chips such as East China water bottle - chips, hot - filled polyester bottle - chips, and carbonated - grade polyester bottle - chips all increased by 38 [2] Market Conditions - For polyester staple fibers, the production factory prices were stagnant, trader prices were warm, downstream demand was for replenishment on - demand, and trading volume increased in South China while it was average in other regions. The price ranges in different regions were provided [2] - For polyester bottle - chips, raw materials and futures were in a warm - oscillating state. Driven by costs, suppliers raised their offers, but downstream buying enthusiasm was low, and the market negotiation atmosphere declined [2] Industry Indicators - The operating load of direct - spun staple fibers (weekly) was 94.40%, with a change of 0.01; polyester staple fiber sales and production rate increased from 64.00% to 78.00%, a change of 14.00%; the opening rate of polyester yarn (weekly) remained at 63.50%, with a change of 0.00; the load index of recycled cotton - type fibers (weekly) increased from 51.00% to 51.50%, a change of 0.01 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is favorable due to strong polyester filament sales, enhanced cost support, and high expectations of PTA device maintenance under low processing fees, leading to a rise in PTA prices. However, the PTA market is under pressure as domestic PTA devices return, PTA production increases, the PTA basis declines rapidly, and OPEC+ raises oil production, causing a significant drop in crude oil prices and a contraction in the spread between PX and naphtha [2]. - The ethylene glycol (MEG) futures rebounded slightly, and the spot market price strengthened slightly, but the basis negotiation continued to weaken. The overall inventory of MEG continued to decline, and the port is expected to continue destocking. However, the MEG price is under continuous pressure due to domestic device commissioning and the return of coal - based MEG devices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **INE Crude Oil**: The price rose from 482.3 yuan/barrel on September 24, 2025, to 490.6 yuan/barrel on September 25, 2025, an increase of 8.3 yuan [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The value decreased from 1121.1 yuan/ton to 1112.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.32 yuan; the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3199 to 1.3121, a decrease of 0.0077 [2]. - **CFR China PX**: The price rose from 812 to 817, an increase of 5; the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 215 to 211, a decrease of 4 [2]. - **PTA**: The主力 futures price rose from 4626 yuan/ton to 4678 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan; the spot price rose from 4525 yuan/ton to 4585 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spot processing fee increased from 202.8 yuan/ton to 213.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.6 yuan; the disk processing fee increased from 268.8 yuan/ton to 291.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.6 yuan; the basis remained unchanged at (73); the number of PTA warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 32714 [2]. - **MEG**: The主力 futures price rose from 4234 yuan/ton to 4246 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan; the MEG - naphtha spread increased from (133.86) yuan/ton to (131.05) yuan/ton, an increase of 2.8 yuan; the MEG domestic price rose from 4301 to 4315, an increase of 14 yuan; the basis increased from 68 to 70, an increase of 2 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - **PX**: The start - up rate remained unchanged at 85.57% [2]. - **PTA**: The start - up rate decreased from 79.38% to 78.12%, a decrease of 1.26% [2]. - **MEG**: The start - up rate remained unchanged at 62.62% [2]. - **Polyester**: The load decreased from 89.00% to 87.81%, a decrease of 1.19% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: The price of POY150D/48F decreased from 6600 to 6530, a decrease of 70 yuan; the cash flow decreased from 40 to (86), a decrease of 126 yuan; the price of FDY150D/96F decreased from 6745 to 6720, a decrease of 25 yuan; the cash flow decreased from (315) to (396), a decrease of 81 yuan; the price of DTY150D/48F decreased from 7855 to 7840, a decrease of 15 yuan; the cash flow decreased from 95 to 24, a decrease of 71 yuan; the sales rate increased from 80% to 175%, an increase of 95% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6460 to 6500, an increase of 40 yuan; the cash flow decreased from 250 to 234, a decrease of 16 yuan; the sales rate increased from 67% to 88%, an increase of 21% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The price of semi - bright chips increased from 5690 to 5725, an increase of 35 yuan; the cash flow decreased from 30 to 9, a decrease of 21 yuan; the sales rate increased from 143% to 152%, an increase of 9% [2]. Device Maintenance - Two PTA devices in South China with a total capacity of 5 million tons have reduced their loads recently due to weather conditions, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent macro - environment is generally favorable. Overseas, the Sino - US economic and trade talks sent positive signals and the Fed's first rate cut this year is beneficial to A - shares. Domestically, poor economic data has led to stronger policy expectations, increasing the necessity of promoting consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and expanding fiscal policies. The stock index trend continues to be bullish, but the policy aims for a "slow - bull" pattern to avoid rapid rallies, and it is recommended to adjust and go long, controlling positions before the holiday [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market and Liquidity - **Interest Rates**: DROO1 closed at 1.47 with a 3.76bp increase, DR007 at 1.60 with a 1.53bp increase, GC001 at 1.50 with a - 14.50bp change, GC007 at 1.88 with a - 4.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.57 with a 0.80bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.37 with no change, 5 - year treasury at 1.63 with a - 0.50bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a - 1.00bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.16 with a 4.00bp increase [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 4835 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% yesterday, with 4870 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 35 billion yuan. This week, there are 18268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing from Monday to Friday (2800 billion, 2870 billion, 4185 billion, 4870 billion, 3543 billion respectively), and 3000 billion yuan of MLF maturing on September 25 [3] Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index Performance**: The CSI 300 rose 0.6% to 4593.5, the SSE 50 rose 0.45% to 2952.7, the CSI 500 rose 0.24% to 7341.3, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.37% to 7506.5. The trading volume of the two markets was 23711 billion yuan, an increase of 443 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors declined, with game, power equipment, energy metals, and wind power equipment sectors rising, while precious metals, shipping ports, jewelry, gas, engineering machinery, and auto - service sectors falling [4] - **Futures Contracts**: For IF, the current - month contract rose 0.6%, with a trading volume of 133482 (down 9.0%) and an open interest of 266373 (up 1.0%); for IH, the current - month contract rose 0.4%, with a trading volume of 51813 (down 16.6%) and an open interest of 94947 (down 3.4%); for IC, the current - month contract rose 0.2%, with a trading volume of 129665 (down 26.8%) and an open interest of 248859 (down 2.8%); for IM, the current - month contract fell 0.4%, with a trading volume of 212836 (down 27.5%) and an open interest of 353327 (down 3.3%) [4] - **Premium and Discount**: IF's current - month contract has a 0.00% premium, IH's current - month contract has a - 0.60% discount, IC's current - month contract has a 10.88% premium, and IM's current - month contract has a 13.68% premium [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.45% to 854.72 yuan/gram, while the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.08% to 10,411 yuan/kilogram [4]. - The US economic data is performing well, the US dollar index has rebounded, the trade situation between the US and Europe has further eased, and the market has closed positions in advance before the National Day holiday to avoid risks. As a result, the upward trend of gold has slowed down and entered a high - level shock. However, silver, boosted by its industrial attributes and the sharp rise of copper, has continued its upward trend. On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Bessent urged a rate cut by the end of the year, and the probability of two more rate cuts this year remains high. In the long run, precious metal prices still have room to rise [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will long - term increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The continuation of gold purchases by global central banks means that the medium - to - long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Internal and External Gold and Silver - **Price Data**: On September 25, 2025, the price of London gold was 3,740.94 US dollars/ounce, London silver was 43.96 US dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3,771.60 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 44.26 US dollars/ounce, AU2510 was 851.74 yuan/gram, AG2510 was 10,370 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 850.58 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 10,346 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the price of gold generally decreased, with a decline of 0.8% for London gold, 0.9% for COMEX gold, 0.5% for AU2510, and 0.5% for AU (T + D). The price of silver also mostly decreased, with a decline of 0.3% for London silver and 0.2% for COMEX silver, but AG2510 and AG (T + D) increased by 0.2% [3]. - **Spread/Ratio Data**: On September 25, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 1.16 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 24 yuan/kilogram, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) was - 4.78 yuan/gram, the spread of silver internal - external market (TD - London) was - 896 yuan/kilogram, the ratio of SHFE gold - silver main contracts was 82.14, the ratio of COMEX gold - silver main contracts was 85.22, the spread of AU2512 - 2510 was 2.98 yuan/gram, and the spread of AG2512 - 2510 was 41 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 28.9%, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) decreased by 31.0%, etc. [3] 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX Gold and Silver Non - commercial Positions**: As of September 16, 2025 (weekly data), on September 24, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 326,778 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 60,368 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 266,410 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position increased by 0.59%, the non - commercial short position decreased by 4.38%, and the non - commercial net long position increased by 1.78%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 71,623 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 20,085 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 51,538 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position decreased by 1.14%, the non - commercial short position increased by 8.49%, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 4.45% [3]. - **ETF Positions**: On September 24, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR was 996.85 tons, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV was 15,469.12379 tons. Compared with September 23, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.37%, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: On September 25, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 65,634 kilograms, an increase of 8.41% compared with September 24. The SHFE silver inventory was 1,156,855 kilograms, a decrease of 0.43% compared with September 24 [3]. - **COMEX Inventory**: On September 24, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was 39,807,223 troy ounces, an increase of 0.16% compared with September 23. The COMEX silver inventory was 527,155,089 troy ounces, an increase of 0.08% compared with September 23 [3]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Index Data - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: On September 25, 2025, the US dollar index was 97.87, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.57%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.16%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.11. Compared with September 24, the US dollar index increased by 0.06%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.13%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged [3][4]. - **Index**: On September 25, 2025, the S&P 500 index was 6,637.97, and the NYMEX crude oil price was 64.81. Compared with September 24, the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.76%, and the NYMEX crude oil price increased by 1.82% [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: Steel market is oscillating without a clear single - side direction. Although the Steel Union data improved on Thursday with a short - term continuation of the structure of both supply and demand rising, there are still pressures such as high inventory and insufficient de - stocking slope. Suggest to wait and see or conduct range trading, and consider taking profit on basis long positions before National Day according to spot exposure [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has improved, but there are still concerns in the fundamentals. The industry has turned from losses to profits, supply is increasing, and terminal demand verification is pending. There is a risk of a decline in iron - water and electric - furnace start - up, and high inventory needs to be de - stocked [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The first round of coke price increase has started comprehensively, and coking coal spot prices continue to strengthen. The market is concerned about pre - holiday furnace material replenishment, but due to limited terminal demand improvement, the upward drive is limited. It is recommended to gradually close long positions before the holiday and use selling hedging if prices rise again [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: There are continuous disturbances from bullish rumors. Support exists before the holiday, but the upside depends on steel demand. It is advisable to wait and see for now, and maintain the long - term view of buying on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes on September 25**: - **Rebar (RB)**: RB2605 closed at 3225 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.25%; RB2601 (near - month contract) closed at 3167 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.32% [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil (HC)**: HC2605 closed at 3366 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24%; HC2601 closed at 3358 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24% [1]. - **Other Contracts**: I2605 closed at 785.5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.51%; J2605 closed at 1900 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan or 1.63%; JM2605 closed at 1328 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.91%. For near - month contracts, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 also had corresponding price changes [1]. - **Spread and Ratio**: - **Cross - month Spread**: RB2601 - 2605 was - 58 yuan/ton on September 25, with a change of 5 yuan; HC2601 - 2605 was - 8 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - **Other Spreads and Ratios**: The coil - rebar spread was 191 yuan/ton, the rebar - ore ratio was 3.93, the coal - coke ratio was 1.43, the rebar disk profit was - 99.83 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 118.12 yuan/ton on September 25, with corresponding changes [1]. Spot Market - **Prices on September 25**: - **Rebar**: Shanghai rebar was 3300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3210 yuan/ton with no change; Guangzhou rebar was 3330 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3420 yuan/ton, Hangzhou was 3430 yuan/ton, and Guangzhou was 3390 yuan/ton, all with no change [1]. - **Other Spot Goods**: Tangshan billet was 3030 yuan/ton with no change; the Platts Index was 106.1, up 0.4; various iron ore and coking coal spot prices also had specific values and changes [1]. - **Basis**: - On September 25, the basis of HC was 62 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the basis of RB was 133 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the basis of I was 26 yuan/ton with no change; the basis of J was - 187.37 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the basis of JM was 80.5 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp fundamentals still show no signs of recovery, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts. The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate, and an 11 - 1 reverse spread is recommended [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 25, 2025, SP2601 was 5314 with a daily increase of 0.34% and a weekly decrease of 0.15%; SP2511 was 5060 with a daily increase of 0.32% and a weekly increase of 0.92%; SP2505 was 5328 with a daily increase of 0.30% and a weekly decrease of 0.34% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650, Russian Needle was 5200; Broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4220, all with no daily or weekly changes [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.78% to 700 dollars; Japanese quotes increased by 3.92% to 530 dollars; Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 590 dollars [5]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.75% to 5721; Brazilian Goldfish increased by 3.87% to 4344; Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 4830 [5]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 61.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95%; broad - leaf pulp imports were 125.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.88%. The pulp shipment volume to China in August was 162 tons, a 4.50% increase [5]. - **Production**: Domestic broad - leaf pulp production on September 25, 2025, was 23.8 tons; chemimechanical pulp production was 22.3 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, a decrease of 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decrease. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 23.5 tons [5]. - **Demand**: On September 25, 2025, double - offset paper production was 21.00 tons; coated paper production was 8.50 tons; tissue paper production was 28.07 tons; white cardboard production was 35.90 tons [5]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 25, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 140 with a quantile level of 0.867; the Silver Star basis was 590 with a quantile level of 0.86 [5]. - **Import Profit**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star had an import profit of - 71 with a quantile level of 0.497; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish had an import profit of - 124 with a quantile level of 0.523 [5]. Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Arauco's September quotes showed a decrease in coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes and an increase in broad - leaf pulp quotes [5]. - **Demand Side**: Current paper product demand is stable, prices have not rebounded significantly, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on pulp demand has not been reflected [5]. - **Inventory Side**: As of September 25, 2025, the pulp inventory showed a de - stocking trend [5].