Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - In the short term, factors such as the approaching traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, downstream stocking demand, and the appearance of independent energy storage economy support the futures price. However, in the long - term, the pattern of supply surplus remains unchanged [3] Summary by Related Content Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 73,750 yuan, a decrease of 100 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,500 yuan, a decrease of 100 yuan [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 856 yuan, with no change; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1,140 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 1,875 yuan; petalite (Li20: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 6,150 yuan; petalite (Li20: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 7,285 yuan [1][2] Positive Electrode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,690 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 148,050 yuan, an increase of 500 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,750 yuan, an increase of 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 125,600 yuan, an increase of 500 yuan [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan, with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 290 yuan, a decrease of 1,260 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 300 yuan, a decrease of 100 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 320 yuan, a decrease of 100 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly) is 136,825 tons, a decrease of 706 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly) is 33,492 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly) is 60,893 tons, an increase of 1,398 tons; the inventory of others (weekly) is 42,440 tons, a decrease of 1,140 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily) is 40,309 tons, an increase of 560 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate externally is 75,328 yuan, with a profit of - 2,650 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 78,729 yuan, with a profit of - 8,042 yuan [3] Industry News - On September 24, China announced new contributions at the United Nations Climate Change Summit, including increasing the proportion of non - fossil energy consumption to over 30% of the total energy consumption, and the total power generation capacity of electricity to reach more than 6 times that of 2020, aiming for 3.6 billion kilowatts [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Data Daily [4] - Research Institution: ITG Guomao Futures [3] - Research Center: Agricultural Products Research Center [5] - Analyst: Huang Xianglan [5] - Date: September 25, 2025 [5] Report Core View - The supply of soybeans in the US may decrease due to lower excellent and good rates and less rainfall in the producing areas, while the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to be loose, and the supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented. The demand for soybean meal is supported by high livestock and poultry inventories in the short term, but the policy may affect the long - term supply of pigs. The inventory of domestic soybeans and oil - mill soybean meal is increasing, and the inventory days of feed enterprises are rising. The short - term trend of M01 is expected to be volatile [7][8]. Summary by Directory Basis and Spread Data - On September 24, the basis of the 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Dalian was 90, down 2; in Tianjin it was 50, down 22; in Rizhao it was 0, down 2; in Zhangjiagang it was - 30, down 22; in Dongguan it was - 30, down 2; in Fangcheng it was - 10, up 18. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 152, down 47. The M1 - 5 spread was 181, down 14 [6]. - The RM1 - 5 spread was 76, down 43. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 350, and the price difference on the main contract was 535, up 54 [7]. Premium and Discount, Crushing Profit and Inventory Data - The premium and discount of Brazilian soybeans in 2025 shows different trends in different months. The dollar - to - RMB exchange rate and the crushing profit per ton are also presented. The inventory of soybeans in Chinese ports and major oil mills in China shows an upward trend in recent years, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is rising but lower than last year. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The excellent and good rate of US soybeans has dropped to 61%, and it may continue to decline. The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and the supply of soybean meal in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to be loose, but the purchase progress for November is slow. The supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented [7][8]. - **Demand**: The short - term high inventory of livestock and poultry breeding supports the feed demand. The policy may affect the long - term supply of pigs. The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the downstream spot trading volume has improved this week [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is rising but lower than last year, and it is expected to be in the inventory accumulation cycle in the short term. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing [8]. Market Outlook - The spread between the GNP premiums and discounts of Argentine and Brazilian soybeans is as high as 100 cents, and the price of Brazilian soybeans is relatively firm. The short - term trend of M01 is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the change of premiums and discounts [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83% to 3853.64 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.8%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.28%, the BeiZheng 50 rose 2.03%, the KeChuang 50 rose 3.49%, the Wind All A rose 1.4%, the Wind A500 rose 1.17%, and the CSI A500 rose 1.39%. A-share trading volume for the day was 2.35 trillion yuan, compared with 2.52 trillion yuan the previous day [5] Group 2: Index Quotes - The closing price of the Shanghai 50 was 1571.95, with a trading volume of 51.46 billion yuan, a turnover of 4566.0708 billion, and a daily increase of 0.68%. The closing price of the CSI 300 was 6291.61, with a trading volume of 220.48 billion yuan, a turnover of 7534.2223 billion, and a daily increase of 1.02%. The closing price of the CSI 1000 was 4943.98, with a daily increase of 1.70% [3] Group 3: CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading - For the Shanghai 50 index options, the trading volume of call options was 2.47 million contracts, and put options was 3.64 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 1.19. The open interest of call options was 4.10 million contracts, and put options was 4.47 million contracts. The open interest PCR was 0.60. For the CSI 300 index options, the trading volume of call options was 6.51 million contracts, and put options was 7.60 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 0.84. The open interest of call options was 9.06 million contracts, and put options was 10.98 million contracts. For the CSI 1000 index options, the trading volume of call options was 31.04 million contracts, and put options was 17.34 million contracts. The trading volume PCR was 0.79. The open interest of call options was 12.85 million contracts, and put options was 12.85 million contracts. The open interest PCR was 1.00 [3] Group 4: Volatility Analysis - Volatility analysis was conducted on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, including historical volatility, historical volatility cones, and volatility smile curves [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to rise in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward pattern in the market before the National Day holiday is low, and it is recommended to control positions [1] - Different varieties in various industries such as macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and others have different trends including oscillation, bullish, and bearish trends, with corresponding influencing factors and operation suggestions [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Long - term bullish, low probability of unilateral rise before National Day, control positions [1] - **Treasury bonds**: Oscillation, asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1] - **Gold**: Oscillation, short - term high - level strong oscillation, beware of increased volatility before National Day [1] - **Silver**: Oscillation, expected to oscillate before National Day [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Expected to rise further due to concerns about supply shortage caused by Freeport's news of production cut at the Indonesian Grasberg mine [1] - **Aluminum**: Pressured in the short - term as bulls take profits after the Fed's rate - cut decision, but limited downside due to the approaching consumption peak season [1] - **Alumina**: Fundamentals are weak with increasing production and inventory, but limited downside as the price approaches the cost line [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamental outlook improves as the production delay at Huoshaoyun reduces the expected increase this year, but high social inventory pressures the price [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term oscillation with a slightly bullish trend, pay attention to supply and macro changes, suggest short - term low - buying operations and light positions for the holiday, long - term surplus of primary nickel remains a constraint [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillation, pay attention to the progress of Indonesian nickel - ore quota approval, raw material support exists, suggest short - term operations, light positions for the holiday, and wait for high - selling hedging opportunities [1] - **Tin**: There is an expectation of improvement in the demand peak season, pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Oscillation, affected by supply resumption in the southwest and northwest, polysilicon production - cut expectation, and market sentiment [1] - **Polysilicon**: Bullish, with long - term capacity reduction expectation, increased silicon - wafer production, and unfulfilled anti - involution policy expectation [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Bullish, driven by the approaching traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and continuous inventory reduction [1] Black metals - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: Oscillation, valuation returns to neutral, unclear industrial drive, positive macro drive [1] - **Iron ore**: Oscillation, near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but there is an upward opportunity for far - month contracts due to positive commodity sentiment [1] - **Coking coal**: Oscillation, after a sharp correction, supported by pre - holiday restocking and macro - easing, but limited upward space, suggest reducing long positions [1] - **Coke**: Oscillation, similar logic to coking coal [1] - **Sintered ore fines, pellets, and lump ore**: Oscillation, short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, supply recovers while demand may weaken, high inventory [1] - **Slag wool**: Oscillation, supply surplus pressure exists, marginal improvement in peak - season demand, price is pressured [1] - **Soda ash**: Oscillation, weak reality, large supply - surplus pressure, price is pressured [1] Agricultural products - **Cotton**: Short - term wide - range oscillation, long - term pressure with the arrival of new cotton [1] - **Raw sugar**: Oscillation, high sugar - production ratio may be adjusted down, price rebounds but limited upside due to supply surplus, suggest short - selling at high levels [1] - **Corn**: Bearish, short - term C01 remains bearish under the expectation of new - grain selling pressure, pay attention to weather changes [1] - **Soybean meal**: Oscillation, short - term MO1 is expected to oscillate, pay attention to changes in the CNF spread [1] - **Pulp**: Oscillation, bottom range is emerging, but no significant bullish driver yet, focus on the cancellation volume of warehouse receipts after September delivery [1] - **Log**: Oscillation, no significant change in fundamentals, lower foreign - market quotes, firm spot price [1] - **Live pigs**: Bearish, increasing supply, limited downstream demand, futures price is higher than the spot price [1] Energy chemicals - **Crude oil**: Oscillation, affected by US inventory decline, OPEC+ second - round production increase plan, and the Fed's rate cut [1] - **Fuel oil**: Oscillation, similar factors as crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Oscillation, short - term following crude oil, the expectation of "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified, sufficient supply of Ma瑞 crude oil [1] - **Natural rubber**: Oscillation, affected by typhoon in South China, inventory decline, and reduced warehouse receipts [1] - **BR rubber**: Oscillation, continuous production increase by OPEC, loose supply of synthetic rubber, reduced downstream transactions, pay attention to capital flow [1] - **PTA**: Bearish, domestic production recovery, falling crude - oil price, extended PX maintenance, and improved polyester profit [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Oscillation, strengthening basis, upcoming commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's device, reduced overseas arrivals but increased hedging [1] - **Short - fiber**: Oscillation, factory device recovery, weakened willingness to deliver warehouse receipts [1] - **Styrene**: Bearish, continuous inventory accumulation, increased supply after maintenance, upcoming commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's device, and increased domestic pure - benzene import pressure [1] - **Urea**: Oscillation, limited upside due to weak export and domestic demand, supported by anti - involution and cost [1] - **PF**: Oscillation, with a slightly bullish trend, rising crude - oil price, more maintenance, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1] - **PP**: Oscillation, weakening support from maintenance, less - than - expected downstream improvement, returning to fundamentals [1] - **PVC**: Oscillation, weakening due to reduced maintenance, large supply pressure, and many near - month warehouse receipts [1] - **ABS**: Bearish, unfulfilled peak - season expectation, inventory accumulation, and falling spot price [1] - **LPG**: Bearish, restricted by OPEC production increase, high domestic crude - oil inventory, weak chemical demand, and the Fed's rate cut [1] Other - **Container shipping to Europe**: There is a possibility of a low - level rebound, entering the contract - changing period, and expected to stop falling as the freight rate approaches the full - cost line [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market is facing multiple challenges. Cargo transportation through the Kazakh border has been temporarily suspended due to disagreements between the governments of Kazakhstan and Russia. MSC has cancelled 5 more voyages during the Golden Week off - season, leading to a reduction in capacity on the Pacific and Asia - Europe routes. The booking volume between China and the US has declined significantly, and tariffs remain a key variable for market fluctuations. The EC market is showing a rebound, mainly due to MSK's stable 10 - second - week freight rates and a price increase in the second half of October. In the European shipping market, the freight rates are expected to fall in late October and recover in November [5][6][7]. 3. Key Points by Content Shipping Market News - Cargo passage through the Kazakh border is temporarily suspended due to government disagreements, and the negotiation completion date is unknown. The Polish - Belarusian border may open this Tuesday, Wednesday, or by the end of the month [5]. - MSC cancels 5 more voyages during the Golden Week off - season, with a 14% reduction in Pacific route capacity and a 17% reduction in Asia - Europe route capacity [5]. - In the first week of September, China - US booking volume decreased by nearly 26% year - on - year, and US - China booking volume decreased by 18%. Tariffs are a key variable [5]. Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 14.31%, and the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) decreased by 0.45%. Rates on various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe also declined [4]. - **EC Contracts**: Most EC contracts showed price increases, with EC2512 rising by 4.50%. Some contracts also had changes in positions, such as a 488 - increase in EC2412 positions [4]. - **Month - spread**: The 10 - 12 month - spread decreased by 58.7, the 12 - 2 month - spread increased by 20.6, and the 12 - 4 month - spread increased by 46.7 [4]. EC Market - The EC market is rebounding. MSK's 10 - second - week freight rates remained stable at 1400, and the rates in late October increased by 400 compared to early October [6]. Spot Price - This week, the GEMINI October price dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The FAK freight rate center in the market in late September was 1500 [7]. Strategy - A 10 - 12 positive spread strategy is recommended [8].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - PTA: Domestic PTA installations are gradually resuming, leading to an increase in domestic PTA production. The PTA basis has declined rapidly, and the market is under significant pressure due to Hengli's concentrated sales. OPEC+ has increased oil production again, causing a sharp drop in crude oil prices. The spread between PX and naphtha has narrowed. With recent weakening sales and rising inventories, especially as the off - season approaches, the polyester operating load has risen to 91%. However, due to the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening basis, PTA has shown weak performance [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The inventory of ethylene glycol at East China ports is 46.5 million tons. The weekly port arrivals are still limited, and the shipping volume from the main warehouse in Zhangjiagang continues to increase, resulting in a continuous decline in the overall ethylene glycol inventory. The ethylene glycol port is expected to continue destocking. Although the import of ethylene glycol in the overseas market is expected to decline, the commissioning of domestic installations has continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price. Coal - based ethylene glycol installations are also resuming. The overall polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load has increased [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price increased from 473.1 yuan/barrel on September 23, 2025, to 482.3 yuan/barrel on September 24, 2025, with a change of 9.20 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA主力期价 rose from 4556 yuan/ton to 4626 yuan/ton, the spot price increased from 4470 yuan/ton to 4525 yuan/ton, the spot processing fee rose from 172.3 yuan/ton to 202.8 yuan/ton, the basis improved from - 79 to - 73, and the number of PTA warehouse receipts increased by 600 to 32714 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 increased from 4212 yuan/ton to 4234 yuan/ton, the MEG - naphtha spread changed from - 126.98 yuan/ton to - 126.17 yuan/ton, the MEG domestic price rose from 4297 yuan/ton to 4301 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased from 76 to 68 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F decreased by 45 yuan/ton, DTY150D/48F decreased by 5 yuan/ton, 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6460 yuan/ton to 6539 yuan/ton, and the semi - bright polyester chip price increased from 5650 yuan/ton to 5690 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Operating Rates - PX operating rate remained at 85.57%, PTA operating rate was stable at 79.38%, MEG operating rate stayed at 62.62%, and polyester load remained at 89.00% [2]. Sales and Production Ratios - The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament increased from 38% to 80%, and the sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber increased from 48% to 67%, and the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips increased from 58% to 143% [2]. Device Maintenance - Two PTA installations in South China with a total capacity of 500 million tons have reduced their loads recently due to weather conditions, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel market is oscillating with unclear unilateral direction. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading, and the positions for phased basis buying hedging can be rolled for profit - taking [3]. - The sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has improved, but there are still concerns in the fundamentals. Industrial customers are advised to focus on spot - futures positive arbitrage [3]. - The coking coal spot is strong. It is suggested that the long - side open positions be gradually liquidated before the holiday, and sell - hedging should be carried out when the price rises again [3]. - There are still supports for iron ore before the holiday. A long - at - low strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts (September 24th)**: RB2605 closed at 3227.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan (0.22%); HC2605 at 3365.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan (0.21%); I2605 at 783.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan (0.26%); J2605 at 1871.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan (1.30%); JM2605 at 1312.00 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan (0.85%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts (September 24th)**: RB2601 closed at 3164.00 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan (0.03%); HC2601 at 3357.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan (0.24%); I2601 at 803.50 yuan/ton, unchanged; J2601 at 1730.00 yuan/ton, up 19.50 yuan (1.14%); JM2601 at 1224.50 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan (1.24%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios (September 24th)**: The spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 63.00 yuan/ton; the spread between HC2601 and HC2605 was - 8.00 yuan/ton; the spread between I2601 and I2605 was 20.50 yuan/ton; the spread between J2601 and J2605 was - 141.00 yuan/ton; the spread between JM2601 and JM2605 was - 87.50 yuan/ton. The coil - to - rebar spread was 193.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.94, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.41, the rebar futures profit was - 84.53 yuan/ton, and the coking futures profit was 101.42 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products (September 24th)**: Shanghai rebar was 3290.00 yuan/ton, up 12.40 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 3030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Platts Index was 106.50, up 0.30. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3420.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3430.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3390.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the billet - to - product spread was 260.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 792.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan [1]. - **Other Products (September 24th)**: The price of Super Special Powder was 710.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the price of mixed powder at Qingdao Port was 745.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the price of coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1285.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan [1]. - **Basis (September 24th)**: The basis of HC was 63.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan; the basis of RB was 126.00 yuan/ton, up 31.00 yuan; the basis of I was 26.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of J was - 157.37 yuan/ton, down 12.50 yuan; the basis of JM was 90.50 yuan/ton, up 48.00 yuan [1]. 3.3 Market Analysis - **Steel**: The futures price was stable on Wednesday, and the spot price slightly stabilized. The trading volume increased moderately compared with Tuesday. The data from Steel Valley Network showed that both supply and demand increased, but the inventory did not decline significantly, indicating that the peak - season demand was not strong. The macro - level US interest rate cut is beneficial to liquidity and risk appetite in the medium - term, but there is no obvious expected trading in the short - term. The peak - season demand for steel is not strong, and the improvement in the apparent demand for building materials is not significant, which cannot drive a strong rebound. The cost support exists due to high pig iron production and pre - National Day furnace charge replenishment, but the high production of building materials increases potential concerns in the long - term [3]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The short - term market sentiment fluctuates greatly. The anti - involution policy leads to tidal - style trading, and the trading style of the black - metal sector changes quickly. The two silicon alloys follow the market. The industry has turned from large losses to profits, and the supply continues to increase. With the arrival of the peak season, the terminal demand needs to be verified, and the risk of a decline in pig iron and electric - arc furnace operations is accumulating, which may impact the demand for the two alloys. The inventory is gradually accumulating, and the overall inventory level is still high [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot trading of coke at ports is weak, but the coking coal auction has good results due to pre - holiday replenishment, and most prices have risen. The futures market oscillates. From a macro perspective, there are signs of "all good news being priced in". From an industrial perspective, the supply - demand of steel has improved marginally before the holiday, and the cost support is effective. However, considering the lack of obvious improvement in terminal demand, the upward drive from the industry is limited. It is recommended to gradually liquidate long - side positions before the holiday and sell - hedge when the price rises [3]. - **Iron Ore**: After the iron ore meeting last week, there were many market rumors. The pig iron production has slightly increased to 240.02 million tons (+0.47). The profitability of steel mills has declined by 1.3% to 58.87%. The steel mills' replenishment for the National Day holiday is almost over. The transfer of iron ore inventory from ports to mills in the next week will support the price. The apparent demand for steel has slightly increased, mainly from rebar, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil has slightly declined. The steel mills have reduced rebar production, and the inventory has changed from accumulation to slight depletion. There is still support for iron ore before the National Day holiday, but the upside depends on the steel demand [3].

Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.44 with a 2.41bp increase, DR007 at 1.59 with an 11.09bp increase, GC001 at 1.64 with a 2.00bp increase, GC007 at 1.92 with a 12.50bp increase, SHBOR 3M at 1.57 with a 0.40bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.37 with a 1.50bp increase, 5 - year treasury at 1.64 with a 2.50bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.82 with a 2.20bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.12 with a 3.00bp decrease [3] - The central bank conducted 4015 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 4185 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan [3] - This week, 18268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 3000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on September 25 [4] Group 2: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.02% to 4566.1, the SSE 50 rose 0.68% to 2939.5, the CSI 500 rose 1.99% to 7323.7, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.7% to 7534.2 [5] - The trading volume of the two stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen reached 23268 billion yuan, a decrease of 1676 billion yuan compared to the previous day. Most industry sectors rose, with only the tourism and hotel sector falling [5] Group 3: Futures Market Performance - The trading volume and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures contracts all decreased to varying degrees [5] - The IF next - month contract had an annualized premium of 3.40%, the IH next - month contract had an annualized discount of - 0.06%, the IC next - month contract had an annualized premium of 9.44%, and the IM next - month contract had an annualized premium of 12.51% [7] Group 4: Market Outlook - The macro - environment is generally positive for stock indices. Overseas, Sino - US economic and trade talks have sent positive signals, and the Fed's first interest rate cut this year is beneficial to A - shares. Domestically, poor economic data has led to stronger policy expectations [6] - The stock index trend remains bullish, but the policy aims for a "slow - bull" pattern. It is recommended to adjust and go long, and control positions before the holiday [6]

Group 1: Report Core View - Domestic PTA device gradually returns, PTA production increases, PTA basis drops rapidly, and the market is under pressure. OPEC+ increases oil production again, causing a sharp decline in crude oil prices. The spread between PX and naphtha narrows. Recently, production and sales have weakened and inventory has increased. The polyester operating load has risen to 91%, but PTA shows weakness due to the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of the basis [2] Group 2: Data Summary Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4470 to 4525, a change of 55 [2] - MEG inner - market price increased from 4297 to 4301, a change of 4 [2] - PTA closing price increased from 4556 to 4626, a change of 70 [2] - MEG closing price increased from 4212 to 4234, a change of 22 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6440 to 6460, a change of 20 [2] - Polyester staple fiber basis remained unchanged at 149 [2] - 10 - 11 spread increased from 4 to 6, a change of 2 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5625 [2] - The spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 815 to 835, a change of 20 [2] - East China water bottle chip price increased from 5757 to 5804, a change of 47 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 5757 to 5804, a change of 47 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 5857 to 5904, a change of 47 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 755 to 760, a change of 5 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 496 to 494, a change of - 1.37 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10270 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3830 to 3810, a change of - 20 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16250 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 14755 to 14775, a change of 20 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1403 to 1382, a change of - 20.82 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price decreased from 7050 to 7020, a change of - 30 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 589 to 510, a change of - 78.37 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price decreased from 7430 to 7350, a change of - 80 [2] Operating Rate and Production and Sales - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40%, a change of 0.01 [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 30.00% to 64.00%, a change of 34.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 51.00%, a change of 0.01 [3] Market Conditions - Polyester staple fiber: Ethylene glycol rose by 20 to 4234, and polyester staple fiber rose by 62 to 6296. The price of polyester staple fiber production factories was stable, the price of traders rose slightly, and a few downstream enterprises restocked before the festival. The trading in the market was differentiated [2] - Bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5700 - 5820 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping by 35 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The polyester raw materials and bottle chip futures were weakly operating, the supply side adjusted the offer downward, the downstream terminal restocked on a rigid - demand basis, and the market negotiation atmosphere was okay, but the price center of bottle chips declined today [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp fundamentals still show no signs of repair, with no significant reduction in pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts. Pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 24, 2025, SP2601 was priced at 5296, up 0.46% day - on - day and down 0.97% week - on - week; SP2511 was 5044, up 0.72% day - on - day and up 0.04% week - on - week; SP2505 was 5312, up 0.45% day - on - day and down 1.04% week - on - week [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5650, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5200, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.95% week - on - week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4220, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week [5]. - **Outer - disk Quotes (USD)**: Chilean Silver Star was 700, down from 720 last period, a 2.78% decrease; Japanese pulp was 530, up from 510, a 3.92% increase; Chilean Venus was 590, unchanged [5]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down from 5884, a 2.75% decrease; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up from 4182, a 3.87% increase; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [5]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In August 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 61.4 tons, down 4.95% from July; hardwood pulp imports were 125.8 tons, down 6.88% from July. The pulp shipment volume to China in July 2025 was 158 tons, a 23% year - on - year increase [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211.2 tons, up 5.0 tons from the previous period, a 2.4% increase. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 24.4 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper remained relatively stable. For example, double - offset paper production was 20.90 tons on September 18, 2025 [5]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 24, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 156, with a quantile level of 0.876; the Silver Star basis was 606, with a quantile level of 0.868 [5]. - **Import Profit**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star had an import profit of - 71, with a quantile level of 0.497; hardwood pulp Goldfish had an import profit of - 124, with a quantile level of 0.523 [5]. Market Situation - **Supply Side**: Chile's Arauco Company's September quotes showed a decrease in coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes and an increase in hardwood pulp quotes [5]. - **Demand Side**: Current paper product demand remained stable, with no obvious rebound in paper prices, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on pulp demand was not yet reflected [5]. - **Inventory Side**: As of September 18, 2025, the pulp inventory in mainstream Chinese ports showed a narrow - range accumulation trend [5].