Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Report's Core View - The adjustment of the pricing cycle of the EC2602 contract is individually bullish for this contract, but the pricing is relatively full, and investors should not blindly chase the high [8]. - It is necessary to observe the loading situation in November to determine whether it can lay a good foundation for the price increase in December, and the price increase situation in December (whether it is one or two rounds) and the amplitude and time of the high point are uncertain [7]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Freight Index - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1451, 1094, 1823, 1238, 2600, and 1417 respectively, with changes of -2.92%, 3.39%, -17.59%, -6.85%, -8.71%, and 7.11% compared to the previous values [5]. - The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1357 and 2029 respectively, with changes of -9.77% and 0.00% compared to the previous values [5]. Contract Information - The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1385.0, 1509.6, 1112.0, 1769.5, 1678.1, and 1179.6 respectively, with changes of -1.35%, -0.76%, -0.54%, -1.27%, -2.78%, and -0.68% compared to the previous values [5]. - The current values of EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 positions are 1585, 1161, 2455, 10432, 38860, and 16145 respectively, with changes of (36), (12), 51, (1654), (20), and (37) compared to the previous values [5]. - The current values of the spreads 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04 are 91.4, 589.9, and 498.5 respectively, with changes of 25.1, (14.7), and (39.8) compared to the previous values [5]. Spot Price - In late November, NSK quoted 2020, HPL quoted 2850, 00CL quoted 2300, CMA quoted 3150, MSC quoted 2350, HML quoted 2500, YML quoted 2550, and ONE quoted 2650. In early December, MSK quoted 3200, HPL quoted 3250, and ONE quoted 2450 (MSK's final quote in December was 2500) [7]. Contract Trading Rule Adjustment - The last trading day of the container shipping index (European Line) futures EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026. The original pricing cycle was adjusted to two weeks earlier, which is bullish for the EC2602 contract [8]. Other Information - According to the holiday arrangement in 2026, the last trading Monday in February 2026 is February 9 [6][8] - Iran carried out a maritime attack near Oman Bay targeting Israel [6] - The ship CMA CGM JULES VERNE/ MEX1 was scheduled to go around the Cape of Good Hope but actually passed through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recently, the PX market has shown a rebound due to multiple factors. Despite the end of some planned maintenance and the gradual recovery of production capacity, PX output remains limited, driven by two key factors: the soaring gasoline profit margin, which prompts refineries to reduce raw material input into aromatics units and increase gasoline production, and the drop in benzene prices to a near - three - year low, leading refineries to lower the load of reforming and STDP units to limit benzene output and thus restrict PX supply [2] - PTA supply has slightly contracted, polyester operation has remained stable with a load above 90%, and domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" period has ended, downstream weaving has performed well, and export demand may improve. The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow these trends [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4615 to 4610, a drop of 5; MEG inner - market price fell from 3980 to 3952, a decrease of 28; PTA closing price declined from 4692 to 4670, a drop of 22; MEG closing price dropped from 3938 to 3907, a decrease of 31 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6375 to 6350, a drop of 25; short - fiber basis increased from 146 to 147, an increase of 1; 12 - 1 spread decreased from 46 to 42, a decrease of 4; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber price difference decreased from 975 to 950, a decrease of 25; East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5727 to 5716, a drop of 11; hot - filled polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5727 to 5716, a drop of 11; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5827 to 5816, a drop of 11 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3925 to 3950, an increase of 25; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300; cotton 328 price decreased from 14315 to 14280, a drop of 35; polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1662 to 1692, an increase of 30 [2] - The price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) remained unchanged at 7020; the cash flow of hollow short fiber 6 - 15D increased from 541 to 555, an increase of 14; the price of primary low - melting - point short fiber remained unchanged at 7480 [2] Market Conditions - In the short - fiber market, the main futures of polyester staple fiber dropped 40 to 6188. The prices of polyester staple fiber production factories were stable, while those of traders declined. Downstream demand was limited, and on - site transactions were sluggish [2] - In the bottle - chip market, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5700 - 5820 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated weakly, supply - side quotations were mixed, market trading was light, and downstream terminal demand was mainly rigid. The price center of bottle chips showed a slight downward trend [2] Operational Data - The weekly load of direct - spun short fibers increased from 85.63% to 89.32%, an increase of 3.69% [3] - The sales volume of polyester staple fibers decreased from 45.00% to 44.00%, a decrease of 1.00% [3] - The weekly startup rate of polyester yarn remained unchanged at 63.50% [3] - The load index of recycled cotton - type fibers increased from 51.00% to 51.50%, an increase of 0.50% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state where price suppression lacks safety - margins, but there is no clear upward driving force. Steel production is expected to gradually decline in the future, and it is necessary to wait for the implementation of the production - cut logic [3]. - The supply - demand situation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is poor, and prices are under pressure. Despite stronger cost support, the oversupply pattern persists [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the coking coal auction prices mostly declined. The positive factors on the supply side of coking coal are weakening, and demand is marginally weakening. Coal and coke prices are expected to be weak in November, with limited decline, and may rise again around mid - December [3]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and although there is strong macro - sentiment, the inventory pressure is high, and the price is difficult to break through the range. It is advisable to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Tuesday, the spot and futures prices remained stable, but the spot trading volume declined, and the market's initiative to chase up prices was weak. The next macro - observation period is after early December [2]. - There are contradictions in the industry: low static valuation of steel futures prices, lack of upward driving force, and unresolved concerns about long - term production cuts in steel mills. Steel production is expected to gradually decline, and it is necessary to wait for the implementation of the production - cut logic [3]. - Investment strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for single - side trading; consider participating in cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot sales [3]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - With the pressure on steel prices, steel mill profits have shrunk, iron - water production has decreased, and the direct demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has weakened significantly. The weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. - Although alloy factory profits are poor, production remains high, and the medium - term supply surplus pressure persists. The inventory of alloy factories and the number of warehouse receipts are accumulating. - Despite the strengthening of cost support due to the rise in coking coal and coke prices, the oversupply pattern continues, and prices will be under pressure. - Investment strategy: Investment clients should short on rallies, and industrial clients can use accumulated put options to protect their spot positions [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the domestic market sentiment has weakened. Most coking coal spot auctions have declined, and the port - traded quasi - first - grade coke price has decreased. - On the futures side, coking coal and coke prices dropped sharply at the opening, and after the end of speculation, they returned to the original downward trend. - The positive factors on the supply side of coking coal are weakening, and downstream demand is marginally weakening. High valuations are difficult to sustain. - In November, coal prices are under downward pressure and will be weak in a volatile manner. Considering the limited domestic coal production and low coal mine inventories, the decline is expected to be limited. Around mid - December, prices may rise again if there is a new round of restocking. - Investment strategy: Adopt a short - term approach for single - side trading, wait and see for the long - term, and consider partially closing the previously recommended hedging short positions [3]. Iron Ore - In the short term, the arrival of iron ore at ports has weakened slightly, but subsequent shipments are not significantly affected, and inventory will continue to accumulate. - The increase in iron - water production is due to the resumption of production of previously shut - down steel mills and the end of environmental protection restrictions in Hebei. However, steel mill profits are affecting production willingness, and port inventory will continue to rise. - Although the price has rebounded at the bottom of the range, it is difficult to break through the range due to inventory pressure. - Investment strategy: Hold short positions [3]. Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices**: On November 18, for far - month contracts, the closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3139.00 yuan/ton, 3295.00 yuan/ton, 757.50 yuan/ton, 1795.00 yuan/ton, and 1232.00 yuan/ton respectively; for near - month contracts, the closing prices of RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3090.00 yuan/ton, 3286.00 yuan/ton, 792.00 yuan/ton, 1649.50 yuan/ton, and 1159.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Price Changes**: The far - month contracts had price changes of 11.00 yuan/ton, 4.00 yuan/ton, 8.00 yuan/ton, - 47.00 yuan/ton, and - 38.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.35%, 0.12%, 1.07%, - 2.55%, and - 2.99%. The near - month contracts had price changes of 14.00 yuan/ton, 7.00 yuan/ton, 11.00 yuan/ton, - 48.50 yuan/ton, and - 46.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.46%, 0.21%, 1.41%, - 2.86%, and - 3.86% [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: On November 18, the inter - month spreads of RB2601 - 2605, HC2601 - 2605, I2601 - 2605, J2601 - 2605, and JM2601 - 2605 were - 49.00 yuan/ton, - 9.00 yuan/ton, 34.50 yuan/ton, - 145.50 yuan/ton, and - 73.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits**: On November 18, the coil - to - rebar spread was 196.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.90, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.42, the rebar's on - paper profit was - 99.30 yuan/ton, and the coking on - paper profit was 108.03 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 18, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billets, and the Platts Index were 3250.00 yuan/ton, 3260.00 yuan/ton, 3420.00 yuan/ton, 2970.00 yuan/ton, and 105.20 respectively [1]. - **Basis**: On November 18, the basis of HC, RB, I, J, and JM were - 16.00 yuan/ton, 160.00 yuan/ton, 30.00 yuan/ton, 84.42 yuan/ton, and 251.00 yuan/ton respectively [1].

| | 锂云母 | | | | | - 工业级碳酸锂-平均价 ■ 电池级恢酸锂一平均价 电俠-工俠价差 元/吨 T./ H+ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) | 1575 | | 85 | | | | | 锂云母 (Li20:2.0%-2.5%) | 2465 | | 125 | | 碳酸锂注册仓电(座) | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:6%-7%) | 8450 | | | | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:7%-8%) | 9900 | | 75 | | | | | 正极材料 | 平均价 | | 涨跌 | | | | | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 37800 | | 300 | | | | | 三元材料811(多晶/动力型) | 160850 | | 200 | | | | | 三元材料523(单晶/动力型) | 142550 | | 350 | | | | | 三元材料613(单晶/动力型) | 142950 | | 300 | | | | | 名称 | 现值 | | 变化值 | | | | | 电 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PX prices are rebounding due to limited production, driven by high gasoline profit rates and low pure - benzene prices. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester开工 remains stable with high load, and domestic polyester exports are optimistic. Downstream weaving shows good performance, and export demand may improve [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports has increased significantly. New device commissions put pressure on prices, and although coal prices are rising, they do not strongly support the cost of ethylene glycol. The tariff reduction after the Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price increased from 458.1 yuan/barrel on 2025/11/17 to 458.8 yuan/barrel on 2025/11/18, with a change of 0.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1362.9 yuan/ton to 1335.9 yuan/ton, a change of - 27.09 yuan/ton; PTA/SC decreased from 1.4094 to 1.4007, a change of - 0.0087 [2]. - CFR China PX decreased from 831 to 827, a change of - 4; PX - naphtha spread increased from 254 to 256, a change of 2 [2]. - PTA主力期价 decreased from 4692 yuan/ton to 4670 yuan/ton, a change of - 22.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 decreased from 4615 to 4610, a change of - 5.0 [2]. - PTA现货加工费 increased from 172.2 yuan/ton to 176.1 yuan/ton, a change of 3.9 yuan/ton; PTA盘面加工费 decreased from 249.2 yuan/ton to 246.1 yuan/ton, a change of - 3.1 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG主力期价 decreased from 3938 yuan/ton to 3907 yuan/ton, a change of - 31.0 yuan/ton; MEG内盘 decreased from 3980 to 3952, a change of - 28.0 [2]. - PX开工率 remained at 87.39%, PTA开工率 remained at 74.55%, MEG开工率 increased from 61.17% to 61.86%, a change of 0.69%, and聚酯负荷 remained at 88.69% [2]. - POY150D/48F decreased from 6590 to 6585, a change of - 5.0; POY现金流 increased from 61 to 70, a change of 9.0 [2]. - FDY150D/96F remained at 6840; FDY现金流 increased from - 189 to - 175, a change of 14.0 [2]. - DTY150D/48F remained at 7865; DTY现金流 increased from 136 to 150, a change of 14.0 [2]. - 长丝产销 decreased from 45% to 41%, a change of - 4% [2]. - 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6375 to 6350, a change of - 25; 涤短现金流 decreased from 196 to 185, a change of - 11.0 [2]. - 短纤产销 increased from 35% to 49%, a change of 14% [2]. - 半光切片 decreased from 5575 to 5565, a change of - 10.0; 切片现金流 increased from - 54 to - 50, a change of 4.0 [2]. - 切片产销 increased from 37% to 49%, a change of 12% [2]. Market Analysis - PTA market: PTA prices decreased slightly due to falling crude oil prices and cost reduction. PTA is in the process of de - stocking, and the spot basis has strengthened [2]. - MEG market: The ethylene glycol futures fluctuated weakly, the spot price in Zhangjiagang decreased, and the basis negotiation weakened. The inventory in East China ports increased by 120,000 tons [2]. Device Maintenance - A 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Singapore, which was originally planned to restart around the end of December 2025, has postponed its restart time, and the specific restart plan is unknown [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to keep social financing conditions relatively loose and promote a reasonable recovery of prices [4]. - The stock index is expected to continue its volatile pattern with support at the bottom and pressure on the upside. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and a new driving force is awaited for the index to rise further [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Macro - Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.53% with a 1.66bp increase, DR007 at 1.52% with a 0.03bp increase, GC001 at 1.69% with a 35.50bp increase, GC007 at 1.56% with a 5.50bp increase, SHBOR 3M at 1.58% unchanged, LPR 5 - year at 3.50% unchanged, 1 - year treasury at 1.40% with a - 0.10bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.54% unchanged, 10 - year treasury at 1.80% with a 0.05bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.13% with a - 1.00bp change [3]. - **Open - Market Operations**: Last week, the central bank conducted 1.122 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 626.2 billion yuan. This week, 1.122 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits will mature on Thursday [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 fell 0.65% to 4568, the SSE 50 fell 0.3% to 3003, the CSI 500 fell 1.17% to 7151, and the CSI 1000 fell 1% to 7448. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.9261 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 15.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed lower, with Internet services, cultural media, and education sectors leading the gains, and coal, battery, steel, fertilizer, energy metals, shipping ports, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF volume increased by 6.6% to 121,863, and its open interest increased by 2.2% to 278,688; IH volume decreased by 4.3% to 54,759, and its open interest decreased by 3.4% to 97,691; IC volume increased by 15% to 134,440, and its open interest increased by 3.3% to 254,019; IM volume increased by 10.4% to 217,767, and its open interest increased by 19% to 362,020 [5]. - **Premium and Discount**: IF's premium and discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were - 3.75%, 3.40%, 2.96%, and 3.43% respectively; IH's were - 2.36%, 2.12%, 0.88%, and 1.07% respectively; IC's were - 3.03%, 11.73%, 10.63%, and 11.05% respectively; IM's were 4.08%, 15.22%, 13.31%, and 12.89% respectively [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pulp fundamentals show no significant improvement, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for 2026 needle pulp. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high - quality needle pulp. The current futures price is close to the import cost of delivery products, with limited room for further increase. Consider closing the 12 - 1 reverse spread and initiating 1 - 3 or 1 - 5 reverse spreads [11]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 18, 2025, SP2601 was 5408, down 1.21% day - on - day and 1.39% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4872, down 0.53% day - on - day and up 0.04% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5410, down 1.13% day - on - day and 1.06% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 18, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian needle pulp was 5400, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4400, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.46% week - on - week [6]. - **Foreign Offers**: In November 2025, the offer of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 2.86% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6]. Supply - **Imports**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month [6]. - **Domestic Production**: On November 13, 2025, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 22.9 tons, and chemical mechanical pulp was 23.6 tons [6]. - **Shipments to China**: In September 2025, the shipment volume of pulp to China was 187 tons, up 13.50% [6]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 211.0 tons, up 6.1% from the previous period, changing from narrow - range de - stocking to high - level stocking [6][11]. - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On November 13, 2025, the inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 22.2 tons [6]. Demand - **Finished Paper Production**: In November 2025, the production of double - coated paper was 20.90 tons, copper - plate paper was 8.30 tons, tissue paper was 28.48 tons, and white cardboard was 36.20 tons [6]. Valuation - **Basis**: On November 18, 2025, the basis of Russian needle pulp was 528, with a quantile level of 0.957; Silver Star was 678, with a quantile level of 0.895 [6]. - **Import Profit**: On November 18, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 9, with a quantile level of 0.594; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.704 [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the mismatch between supply and demand, with the terminal (energy storage + new energy vehicles) peak season continuing and the supply fluctuating at a high level without a large - scale increase, the downward support for lithium carbonate prices is obvious. Considering hedging pressure and the resumption of production in Jiangxi mines, it is expected that lithium carbonate prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 86,150 yuan, up 1,000 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 83,800 yuan, up 1,000 yuan [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) average price is 1,024 yuan, up 18 yuan; lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) average price is 1,490 yuan, up 40 yuan; lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) average price is 2,340 yuan, up 60 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) average price is 8,400 yuan, up 315 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) average price is 9,825 yuan, up 315 yuan [1][2] Positive Electrode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 37,500 yuan, up 245 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 160,650 yuan, up 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 142,200 yuan, up 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 142,650 yuan, up 300 yuan [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,350 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 9,050 yuan, a change of - 6,840 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 60 yuan, up 80 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 260 yuan, up 100 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 120,472 tons, a decrease of 3,481 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 28,270 tons, a decrease of 2,445 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 48,772 tons, a decrease of 3,236 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,430 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 26,953 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 85,482 yuan, and the profit is - 543 yuan; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 89,096 yuan, and the profit is - 6,327 yuan [3] Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 95,140 yuan, with a daily increase of 8.98%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2601 is 95,200 yuan, with a daily increase of 9%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2602 is 94,880 yuan, with a daily increase of 8.98%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2603 is 94,780 yuan, with a daily increase of 8.99%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2604 is 95,640 yuan, with a daily increase of 8.98% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side: As the southwest region enters the dry season, many furnaces are shut down, leading to a decline in the national production schedule in November [4]. - The demand side: The dry - season in the southwest region causes a decline in the polysilicon production schedule in November, while the silicone production schedule increases month - on - month in November, fluctuating around 200,000 tons per month [4]. - The inventory side: The visible inventory fluctuates, and the balance sheet shows a slight inventory build - up in November. Overall, both supply and demand of industrial silicon decrease, and inventory fluctuates. In the short term, the silicon price may operate in the range of 8,200 - 9,400 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Fluctuations**: SI2512 closed at 9,095 with a 0.22% increase, SI2601 at 9,080 with a 0.11% increase, SI2602 at 9,055 with a 0.11% increase, SI2603 at 9,045 with a 0.06% increase, and SI2604 at 9,040 with a 0.22% decrease [4]. - **Contract Positions**: SI2512 had a position of 27,515, SI2601 had 251,549, SI2602 had 45,536, SI2603 had 18,433, and SI2604 had 10,071 [4]. Spot Market - **Prices in Different Regions and Grades**: In the East China region, 553 (non - oxygen - blowing) was priced at 9,350, 553 (oxygen - blowing) at 9,500, 421 at 9,750, 441 at 9,700, and 3303 at 10,500. In Huangpu Port, 421 was 10,000 and 553 (oxygen - blowing) was 9,400. In Tianjin Port, 421 was 9,800. In Kunming, 553 (oxygen - blowing) was 9,600 and 421 was 10,000. In Sichuan, 421 was 9,800 [4]. - **Related Product Prices**: DMC price was 12,750 (up 500), 107 - rubber was 12,250, polysilicon (dense material per kg) was 51, and the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21,550 (down 100) [4]. Price Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: SI2512 - SI2601 spread was 15, SI2601 - SI2602 spread was 25 (up 10) [4]. - **Spot Spreads**: 421 spot - 553 oxygen - blowing spot spread was 250, and the basis (East China 553 spot - main contract) was 420 (down 60) [4]. Warehouse and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Warehouse Information**: There are multiple warehouses and sub - warehouses with different storage capacities (in ten thousand tons) and premium/discount standards. The total warehouse capacity was 27.55 tons [4]. - **Warehouse Receipt Changes**: The total number of warehouse receipts decreased from 36,414 to 35,475, a decrease of 939 [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume remains low, and short - term market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index up further [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [1] - The recent cooling of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has led to a callback in copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metal prices, but the callback range of copper is expected to be limited. For different non - ferrous metals, there are different fundamental factors affecting their prices [1] - For various commodities such as steel, energy, and agricultural products, their prices are affected by factors such as seasonality, supply - demand relationship, cost, and macro - sentiment, and most of them are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with different risk and opportunity characteristics [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Stock and Bond Markets - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and short - term divergence will be digested during shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving factor [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks suppress the upward trend [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper price has a limited callback due to the cooling of the Fed rate - cut expectation in December [1] - Aluminum price has a callback due to the cooling of the Fed rate - cut expectation and limited industrial - side drive [1] - Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1] - Zinc has support below due to low LME inventory and signs of improvement in the domestic fundamentals [1] - Nickel price may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to macro - weakness and high inventory, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel continues [1] - Stainless steel futures are looking for a bottom in shock, and short - term operations are recommended, paying attention to selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Tin is still bullish in the long - term despite short - term pressure from the Fed rate - cut expectation [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals may be under pressure in the short term due to the hawkish statements of Fed officials, and attention should be paid to the upcoming US economic data [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production capacity is resuming, Southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and it is affected by polysilicon [1] - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation increases marginally in the fourth quarter [1] - Lithium carbonate: It may fluctuate due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and high hedging pressure [1] Steel and Iron Ore - For steel products, the off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose, and attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1] - Iron ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil is expected to run weakly due to the increase in production in the first half of November [1] - Soybean oil has support from domestic consumption demand and export window, but the CBOT soybean's retracement of policy premium has a short - term negative impact [1] - Rapeseed oil: The inability of Canada to cancel tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and plans to increase biodiesel production capacity make it difficult for Canadian rapeseed to be exported to China in the short term, and the basis is stable and slightly strong [1] - Cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to relevant policies and planting conditions [1] - Sugar: Global sugar supply turns from shortage to surplus, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be under pressure and follow the trend of raw sugar [1] - Corn: Short - term spot prices are firm, but the selling pressure is postponed, and the upward drive of the futures price is weak [1] - Soybean meal: The short - term upward expectation lacks impetus, and the market may start to trade the selling pressure of South American new crops from December to January [1] Energy and Chemicals - Fuel oil: Affected by OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical factors, and trade policies, it is expected to fluctuate [1] - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to decline due to factors such as the possible falsification of the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand [1] - Rubber: Different types of rubber have different price trends affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and market atmosphere [1] - PTA and related products: Their prices are affected by factors such as gasoline profit, device maintenance, and raw - material cost [1] - Ethylene glycol: Its price is affected by the decline of crude oil price, the increase of coal price, and the strong expectation of domestic device commissioning [1] - Other chemicals: Their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and device maintenance [1]