樊园园 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023682 fanyuanyuan@gtht.com 2026 年 2 月 13 日 动力煤：市场预期转强，节后谨慎乐观 1. 【基本面跟踪】 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 动力煤基本面数据 | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 本 期 | 环 比 | 同比去年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 山西大同5500 | 元/吨 | 572.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 | | 产地价格 | 内蒙古鄂尔多斯5500 | 元/吨 | 522.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | | | 陕西榆林5800 | 元/吨 | 598.0 | 0.0 | 37.0 | | | 秦港山西产Q5500 | 元/吨 | 711.0 | 6.0 | -19.0 | | 港口价格 | 秦港山西产Q5000 | 元/吨 | 631.0 | 6.0 | -9.0 | | | 秦港山西产Q4500 | 元/吨 | 549.0 | 6.0 | -16.0 | | 海外价格 | 印尼FOB Q3800 | 美元/吨 | 56 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the spot market for imported pulp has a weak trading atmosphere, showing characteristics of shrinking volume and stable prices. The average weekly prices of various types of pulp have slightly decreased, with the demand from downstream paper mills limited and the market in a state of digesting previous orders. Port inventories continue to accumulate slightly, suppressing pulp price fluctuations [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - In the futures market, for the pulp main contract (05 contract), the daily - closing price increased by 2 yuan/ton to 5,238 yuan/ton, the night - closing price increased by 2 yuan/ton to 5,254 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 4,600 hands to 152,334 hands, the open interest decreased by 20,879 hands to 280,912 hands, the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 4,988 tons to 151,415 tons, and the net position of the top 20 members increased by 1,679 hands to - 17,850 hands. In terms of spread data, the basis of Silver Star - futures main dropped by 2, the basis of Goldfish - futures main (non - standard) dropped by 2, and the monthly spread of SP03 - SP05 dropped by 2. In the spot market, the domestic prices of various pulp brands are as follows: Northwood and Cariboo are 5,450 yuan/ton, Moon is 5,150 yuan/ton, Silver Star is 5,250 yuan/ton, Russian needles are 5,050 yuan/ton, eucalyptus pulp such as Huimu and Star is around 4,580 yuan/ton, and Kunhe chemical mechanical pulp is 3,800 yuan/ton, Jinxing natural color pulp is 4,900 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Industry News - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the trading atmosphere in the imported pulp spot market weakens. The average spot prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, natural color pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp this week are 5,246 yuan/ton, 4,564 yuan/ton, 4,921 yuan/ton, and 3,800 yuan/ton respectively, with the first three showing decreases of 1.6%, 0.8%, and 0.6% compared to the previous period, while the chemical mechanical pulp remains the same. The reasons for pulp price fluctuations are the slowdown of downstream paper mill operations, the completion of raw material replenishment, the concentration of coniferous pulp trading in the futures - cash arbitrage link, and the accumulation of port inventories [4][5]

碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 149,420 | -840 | 16,640 | -15,400 | -17,560 | 61,860 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 304,798 | -47,079 | -226,926 | -216,536 | -303,379 | 133,390 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 353,975 | -2,556 | 24,198 | -48,372 | -106,306 | 168,674 | | | 盘 面 | 2607合约（收盘价） | 149,400 | -1,300 | 16,400 | -16,180 | -18,200 | 62,320 | | | | 2607合约（成交量） | 34,962 | 157 | -36,392 | -36,062 | -238,559 | 20,218 | | | | 260 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the latest data on the fundamentals of the oil and fat industry, including futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, basis, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. It also includes macro and industry news, such as investigations into the Fed Chair, palm oil price and export policies in Malaysia, and crop production forecasts in the US, Brazil, and Argentina [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil futures closed at 8,782 yuan/ton during the day session with a -1.39% decline and 8,798 yuan/ton at night with a 0.18% increase; soybean oil futures closed at 8,082 yuan/ton during the day with a -0.35% decline and 8,106 yuan/ton at night with a 0.30% increase; rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,047 yuan/ton during the day with a -0.92% decline and 9,093 yuan/ton at night with a 0.51% increase. The Malaysian palm oil futures closed at 4,037 ringgit/ton during the day with a -0.57% decline and 4,044 ringgit/ton at night with a 0.17% increase. The CBOT soybean oil futures closed at 57.90 cents/pound with a 0.70% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil futures was 328,615 lots with an increase of 37,882 lots, and the open interest was 400,972 lots with a decrease of 16,264 lots. The trading volume of soybean oil futures was 209,635 lots with an increase of 18,360 lots, and the open interest was 651,133 lots with a decrease of 12,182 lots. The trading volume of rapeseed oil futures was 131,858 lots with a decrease of 18,765 lots, and the open interest was 251,961 lots with a decrease of 8,435 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,900 yuan/ton with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,610 yuan/ton with an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,070 yuan/ton with no change. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,075 dollars/ton with a decrease of 5 dollars/ton [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 118 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 528 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 1,023 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 265 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 700 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 14 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 60 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 23 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary agreed to an investigation of Fed Chair Powell by the Senate Banking Committee [2] - Malaysia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in March but kept the export tax rate at 9%. From February 1 - 10, 2026, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 7.58% compared to the same period last month, and the export volume decreased by 16.1% [3][4] - The USDA's 102nd Agricultural Outlook Forum will be held on February 19th, focusing on agricultural trade policies under the "Trump Paradigm" [4] - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is estimated to be 1.7798 billion tons, and the export volume is expected to be 1.122 billion tons. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is estimated to be around 48 - 48.5 million tons [4][5] - From February to April 2026, the probability of La Nina turning into ENSO - neutral is 60%, and the neutral state is expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere summer [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is -1 [6]

2026 年 2 月 13 日 棉花：节前预计维持震荡走势 20260213 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 14,790 | 0.31% | 14750 | -0.27% | | | CY2605 | 元/吨 | 20,655 | 0.32% | 20655 | 0.00% | | | ICE美棉5 | 美分/磅 | 64.29 | 0.39% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 317,911 | -30,770 | 1,034,726 | -7,866 | | | CY2605 | 手 | 9,382 | -1,999 | 10,471 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | ...

2026 年 02 月 13 日 橡胶：震荡运行 20260213 | | 高琳琳 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 | gaolinlin@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | | | | | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 450 | 16. 575 | -125 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 485 | 16. 520 | -35 | | | | 成交量(手) | 180, 678 | 270. 154 | -89.476 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 152, 702 | 162, 081 | -9.379 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 112, 570 | 112. 570 | 0 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 22, 675 | 25. 648 | - ...

期货研究 烧碱：成本抬升，偏强震荡 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 05合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2168 640 2000 -168 2026 年 2 月 13 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 从基本面看，需求端氧化铝供应过剩格局短期仍未改变，减产预期压制对烧碱的囤货，不过后期也有大 规模产能投产带来的增量需求。非铝下游面临季节性刚需下滑，出口囤货偏弱，整体需求偏弱。供应端看， 山东现货价格已贴近现金流成本，3 月份之后减产和降负预期增强。 整体看，液氯持续降价导致烧碱面临成本抬升、供应预期大规模减产的格局。因此建议 05 合约多单持 有。 【趋势强度】 烧碱趋势强度：1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 全国 20 万吨及以上固定液碱样本企业厂库库存 44.29 万吨(湿吨)，环比下调 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 13 日 工业硅：关注下方空间 多晶硅：关注节后现货成交情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） Si2605成交量（手） | 8,375 188,888 | -75 -11,212 | -440 -67,353 | -340 -256,687 | | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 303,387 | 8,477 | 68,587 | 63,683 | | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 48,950 | -420 | -1,050 | - | | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 3,991 | -715 | -14,306 | - | | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 38,617 | 2 ...

2026年02月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：海外扰动增强，价格承压 | 4 | | 锌：跟随宏观波动 | 6 | | 铅：国内库存增加，价格承压 | 8 | | 锡：节前控制持仓 | 9 | | 铝：小幅下跌 | 10 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：受美股拖累下行 | 12 | | 钯：贵金属板块又见疲态，走势撤步 | 12 | | 镍：印尼与菲律宾消息博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 13 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 ...

2026年02月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：海外扰动增强，价格承压 | 5 | | 锌：跟随宏观波动 | 7 | | 铅：国内库存增加，价格承压 | 9 | | 锡：节前控制持仓 | 10 | | 铝：小幅下跌 | 11 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：受美股拖累下行 | 13 | | 钯：贵金属板块又见疲态，走势撤步 | 13 | | 镍：印尼与菲律宾消息博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 | 15 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：周度库存去库，关注节前资金行为 | 17 | | 工业硅：关注下方空间 | 19 | | 多晶硅：关注节后现货成交情况 | 19 | | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：偏弱震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 ...