2026 年 02 月 13 日 铝：小幅下跌 氧化铝：偏弱运行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 期 货 研 究 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 23610 | 225 | 2470 | -50 | -725 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 23395 | l | - | l | l | LME铝3M收盘价 | 3098 | -20 | -36 | 204 | 72 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 34812 | 181308 | -292363 | -370361 | -6173 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 159738 | -14665 | -47632 | -933 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests controlling positions in tin before the holiday [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 391,320 with a daily increase of 0.88%, and the night - session closing price was 376,330 with a decrease of 4.27%. The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 47,800 with a decrease of 4.52%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 177,854, a decrease of 80,098 from the previous day, and the position was 28,260, a decrease of 3,027. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 628, an increase of 130, and the position was 24,416, a decrease of 737 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 10,296, an increase of 3,780 from the previous day, and the inventory of LME Tin was 7,490, a decrease of 60. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 391,650, an increase of 2,950 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 393,900, an increase of 5,800. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 152, an increase of 7. The spot - to - futures main contract spread was - 800, a decrease of 6,900 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 377,650, an increase of 2,950; the price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 381,650, an increase of 2,950. The price of 63A solder bar was 259,250, an increase of 1,500, and the price of 60A solder bar was 248,250, an increase of 2,000 [2]. 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is - 1, indicating a weak bearish view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]. 3. Macro and Industry News - The People's Bank of China will conduct 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on February 13. Russia proposed in a memorandum to return to the US dollar system. Elon Musk praised Seedance 2.0, and ByteDance said it was "far from perfect". The Zhizhi GLM Coding Plan was sold out upon launch [4].

锌：跟随宏观波动 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2026 年 02 月 13 日 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 24670 | 0.12% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 3418 | 0.59% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 63473 | 20594 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 10803 | 2795 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 82084 | 3215 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 227792 | -7690 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -30 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -17.8 | 1.75 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） ...

Report Investment Rating - Silicon ferroalloy: Weak and oscillating [1] - Manganese ferroalloy: Wide - range oscillating [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides the latest price information and market news of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy, including spot prices, futures prices, and price differences, as well as new production capacity ignition and supply changes in the industry [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Macro and Industry News - An additional production capacity of a silicon - manganese plant in Sunite Right Banner, Inner Mongolia was ignited on February 10, 2026, and it is expected to produce iron by the end of February. The first unit (launched at the end of December 2025) currently has a daily output of over 200 tons, and the daily output will reach over 400 tons after reaching full production [1] - Jupiter will not provide manganese ore supply and quotes to China in March 2026 and is expected to release April manganese ore offers after the Spring Festival [1] - On February 12, 2026, the starting price of Hongliulin lump coal at the raw material end of semi - coke was 690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The auction volume was 105,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons compared with the previous period. The average transaction price was 692.81 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86.95 yuan/ton compared with the previous average price [3] Price Information Spot Prices - On February 12, 2026, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton; the price of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5950 - 6000 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton (+25). The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1070 - 1090 (+10) US dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1120 - 1150 (+10) US dollars/ton [2][3] - The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] - The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5650 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 42.8 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 745 yuan/ton [2] Futures Prices - The closing price of silicon ferroalloy 2603 was 5538 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 10,836 and an open interest of 23,069; the closing price of silicon ferroalloy 2605 was 5500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76 yuan compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 130,697 and an open interest of 187,389 [2] - The closing price of manganese ferroalloy 2603 was 5762 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 14,737 and an open interest of 26,665; the closing price of manganese ferroalloy 2605 was 5800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 101,203 and an open interest of 378,385 [2] Price Differences - The basis of silicon ferroalloy (spot - 05 futures) was - 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan compared with the previous day; the basis of manganese ferroalloy (spot - 05 futures) was - 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan compared with the previous day [2] - The price difference between silicon ferroalloy 2603 and 2605 was 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan compared with the previous day; the price difference between manganese ferroalloy 2603 and 2605 was - 38 yuan/ton, unchanged compared with the previous day [2] - The price difference between manganese ferroalloy 2603 and silicon ferroalloy 2603 was 224 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan compared with the previous day; the price difference between manganese ferroalloy 2605 and silicon ferroalloy 2605 was 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan compared with the previous day [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0; the trend intensity of manganese ferroalloy is 0 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical disturbances in the LPG market still exist, and the fundamental factors are driving the market downward. The supply - demand of propylene is in a tight balance, and the spot price remains stable [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For LPG (PG), on February 12, 2026, the 2603 contract had a closing price of 4,271 with a daily increase of 0.21%, and a night - session closing price of 4,310 with a night - session increase of 0.91%. The 2604 contract had a closing price of 4,529 with a daily decrease of 0.70%, and a night - session closing price of 4,516 with a night - session decrease of 0.29%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 4,447 with a daily decrease of 0.56%, and a night - session closing price of 4,428 with a night - session decrease of 0.43%. For propylene (PL), the 2603 contract had a closing price of 6,278 with a daily increase of 0.61%, and a night - session closing price of 6,246 with a night - session decrease of 0.51%. The 2604 contract had a closing price of 6,215 with a daily decrease of 0.42%, and a night - session closing price of 6,220 with a night - session increase of 0.08%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 6,225 with a daily decrease of 0.75%, and a night - session closing price of 6,228 with a night - session increase of 0.05% [3] - **Spot Market**: For LPG, the Shandong civil LPG price was 4,440, the East China imported LPG price was 5,026, the East China civil LPG price was 4,467 (down 8 from the previous day), the South China imported LPG price was 4,860 (down 5 from the previous day), the South China civil LPG price was 4,750, the Shandong ether - after LPG price was 4,460 (up 10 from the previous day), and the FEI arrival price was 5,002 (down 16 from the previous day). For propylene, the Shandong price was 6,445, the East China price was 6,430, and the South China price was 6,325 [3] - **Industrial Chain开工率**: As of February 13, 2026, the PDH operating rate was 65.57% (up 2.91% from the previous week), the alkylation operating rate was 36.85% (unchanged from the previous week), and the MTBE operating rate was 67.87% (down 0.14% from the previous week) [3] - **LPG Shipping Volume**: On February 12, 2026, from the US to the world, the shipping volume was 32.4 (up 11.9 from the previous day), to Asia was 9.1 (down 4.7 from the previous day), to China was 0.0 (down 4.5 from the previous day), to Japan was 4.5 (unchanged from the previous day), to South Korea was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to India was 4.6 (up 4.6 from the previous day), and to Southeast Asia was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day). From the Middle East to the world, the shipping volume was 6.4 (up 0.3 from the previous day), to Asia was 6.4 (up 0.3 from the previous day), to China was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to Japan was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to South Korea was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to India was 6.4 (up 4.7 from the previous day), and to Southeast Asia was 0.0 (down 2.2 from the previous day) [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [7] 3.3 Market Information - On February 12, 2026, the March CP paper - cargo price of propane was 537 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day), and the butane price was 527 US dollars/ton (down 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day). The April CP paper - cargo price of propane was 522 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day) [8] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. [9] - There are also domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans, such as those of Rizhao (China Overseas), Shenchi Chemical, etc. [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to the information game between Indonesia and the Philippines [1]. - For stainless steel, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 139,610, with a change compared to T - 1 of 250, T - 5 of 5,180, T - 10 of - 7,860, T - 22 of 1,160, and T - 66 of 20,900 [1]. - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,970, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 70, T - 5 of 160, T - 10 of - 615, T - 22 of 180, and T - 66 of 1,545 [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 433,838, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 84,787, T - 5 of - 148,686, T - 10 of - 349,437, T - 22 of - 843,852, and T - 66 of 335,590 [1]. - The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 220,012, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 43,037, T - 5 of - 110,145, T - 10 of - 228,480, T - 22 of - 127,542, and T - 66 of 80,309 [1]. - **Industry Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel is 140,750, with a change compared to T - 1 of 3,000, T - 5 of 5,550, T - 10 of - 3,900, T - 22 of - 250, and T - 66 of 21,750 [1]. - The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 1,052, with a change compared to T - 1 of 9, T - 5 of 14, T - 10 of - 3, T - 22 of 71, and T - 66 of 143 [1]. - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,100, with a change compared to T - 1 of 0, T - 5 of 0, T - 10 of - 300, T - 22 of 200, and T - 66 of 1,275 [1]. - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,950, with a change compared to T - 1 of 0, T - 5 of - 300, T - 10 of - 1,450, T - 22 of - 900, and T - 66 of 3,505 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [2]. - Some Indonesian mining companies face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final amount may be lower [2]. - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port warehousing and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in negotiation [3]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) for some companies [3]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound of nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [3]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons, and PT WBN received a preliminary notice to submit an RKAB [4]. - Philippine miners claim that the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [6].

2026 年 02 月 13 日 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 短纤：短期震荡市，多单逢高减仓 20260213 瓶片：短期震荡市，多单逢高减仓 20260213 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2603 | 6554 | ୧୧୫୫ | -34 | PF03-04 | -68 | -66 | -2 | | PF | 短纤2604 | 6622 | 6654 | -32 | PF04-05 | 6 | 28 | -22 | | | 短纤2605 | 6616 | 6626 | -10 | PF主力基差 | -32 | -64 | 32 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 153547 | 137024 | 16523 | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 13 日 铜：海外扰动增强，价格承压 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 102,330 | 0.15% | 100030 | -2.25% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,856 | -2.90% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 243,029 | 49,638 | 560,666 | -7,381 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 22,114 | -4,377 | 322,000 | -3,871 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 187,179 | 8,282 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 196,650 | 4,550 | 11.01% | -0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The demand expectation of iron ore is weakening, and the price is expected to decline in a volatile manner [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 is 762.0 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.07%. The持仓 is 497,918 hands, with a decrease of 9,039 hands [1] - **Spot Price**: The prices of various types of iron ore (including imported and domestic) remained unchanged compared to the previous day [1] - **Basis**: The basis of I2605 against Jinbuba increased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 71.1 yuan/ton, and against Chaote increased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 94.5 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spread**: The spread of I2605 - I2609 decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 17.0 yuan/ton, while the spread of I2609 - I2701 remained unchanged at 11.5 yuan/ton. Other price spreads also remained unchanged [1] Macro and Industry News - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The PPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month and decreased by 1.4% year - on - year [1] - China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI in January was 50.3, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 50.1 [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is -1, indicating a bearish view [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the doc 2. Core Viewpoints - Platinum was dragged down by the US stock market, and the precious metals sector including palladium showed signs of weakness [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 544.90 with a -1.13% decline; gold exchange platinum at 541.04 with a -0.80% decline; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) at 2025.00 with a -5.28% decline; London spot platinum (previous day) at 1999.40 with a -6.99% decline. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 430.05 with a -2.06% decline; RMB spot palladium at 408.00 with a -0.97% decline; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) at 1639.00 with a -5.27% decline; London spot palladium (previous day) at 1626.50 with a -4.88% decline [2] - **Trading Volume and Position**: For platinum, Guangdong platinum trading volume was 5,442 kg, a decrease of 1,389 kg from the previous day, and the position was 26,111 kg, a decrease of 201 kg. NYMEX platinum trading volume was 27,278 kg, an increase of 1,760 kg, and the position was 83,039 kg, a decrease of 365 kg. For palladium, Guangdong palladium trading volume was 3,134 kg, an increase of 162 kg, and the position was 9,103 kg, a decrease of 311 kg. NYMEX palladium trading volume was 17,278 kg, an increase of 6,177 kg, and the position was 34,677 kg, a decrease of 1,431 kg [2] - **ETF Position**: Platinum ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 3,268,123, a decrease of 424; palladium ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 1,191,075, a decrease of 3,894 [2] - **Inventory**: Guangdong platinum inventory was 1 kg; NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 583,369 with no change. Guangdong palladium inventory was 1 kg; NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 186,863 with no change [2] - **Spread**: Various spreads for platinum and palladium showed different changes compared to the previous day, such as the PT9995 - PT2606 spread increased by 1.91, and the Guangdong platinum 2606 - 2610 spread decreased by 1.05 [2] - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 96.91 with a 0.05% increase; the US dollar - RMB (CNY spot) was 6.91 with a 0.03% increase; the US dollar - offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.91 with no change; the US dollar - RMB (6M forward) was 6.82 with a -0.48% decrease [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - US two warships collided near South America, and the cause is under investigation. The US Treasury Secretary agreed to let the Senate instead of the Justice Department investigate Powell to get the nomination of the new Fed Chairman approved. The White House submitted an emergency plan to avoid the shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security [4] - Trump said the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, and Netanyahu said Trump might reach a good agreement with Iran. The US Department of Defense instructed a second aircraft - carrier strike group to prepare for deployment to the Middle East. The US Treasury will further relax sanctions on Venezuela this week. The US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 7 were 227,000, higher than the expected 222,000. Russia proposed 7 - point economic cooperation suggestions to the US to seek Trump's support. Anthropic completed a $30 billion financing, and its valuation reached $380 billion [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity was 0, and palladium trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral view [5]