Report Title - LPG: Short-term Firmness, Long-term Pressure; Propylene: Spot Weakness [1][2] Market Data Futures Prices - PG2601 closed at 4,221 with a daily gain of 0.86% and a night session close of 4,235 with a 0.33% gain [2] - PG2602 closed at 4,082 with a 1.27% daily gain and a night session close of 4,088 with a 0.15% gain [2] - PL2601 closed at 5,890 with a -0.57% daily change and a night session close of 5,951 with a 1.04% gain [2] - PL2602 closed at 5,740 with a 1.76% daily gain and a night session close of 5,776 with a 0.63% gain [2] - PL2603 closed at 5,758 with a 2.24% daily gain and a night session close of 5,775 with a 0.30% gain [2] Trading Volume and Open Interest - PG2601 had a trading volume of 2,615, a decrease of 5,292 from the previous day, and an open interest of 3,696, a decrease of 1,319 [2] - PG2602 had a trading volume of 59,892, a decrease of 59,076, and an open interest of 71,590, a decrease of 3,268 [2] - PL2601 had a trading volume of 317, an increase of 97, and an open interest of 890, a decrease of 211 [2] - PL2602 had a trading volume of 6,682, a decrease of 4,091, and an open interest of 7,431, a decrease of 471 [2] - PL2603 had a trading volume of 24,928, a decrease of 244, and an open interest of 17,231, a decrease of 1,053 [2] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG01 contract was 279, compared to 295 the previous day [2] - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG01 contract was 379, compared to 375 the previous day [2] - The spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was -185, compared to -114 the previous day [2] - The spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was -40, compared to -74 the previous day [2] - The spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was -65, compared to -99 the previous day [2] Industry Chain Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 75.0%, up from 72.9% last week [2] - The MTBE operating rate was 68.9%, down from 69.8% [2] - The alkylation operating rate was 36.8%, down from 39.5% [2] Market Trends - LPG trend intensity is 0; propylene trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [6] Market News - On December 24, 2025, the January CP paper cargo for propane was $510/ton, up $1/ton from the previous day; butane was $501/ton, unchanged. The February CP paper cargo for propane was $505/ton, up $3/ton [7] - There are multiple domestic PDH plant maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting on May 12, 2023, and others with various start times and undetermined end times [8] - There are also domestic LPG plant maintenance plans, such as Rizhao (China National Offshore Oil Corporation) starting on January 3, 2025, and others with specific start and end times and loss volumes [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Report's Core View - The cost of crude oil is expected to fluctuate narrowly, providing limited support to the PP cost side. The chemical configuration in the market is differentiated, and the hedging logic of aromatics - olefins is continuously strengthened. With no new production before the 2605 contract on the supply side, the game of existing supply and demand intensifies. On the demand side, new orders from downstream industries weaken, and downstream factories' procurement remains cautious, leading to weak demand. Overall, the fundamentals at the end of the year provide limited support. Although the PDH profit is at a new low, upstream companies have locked in raw materials and made some pre - sales earlier, so the willingness to reduce production is not strong. It is expected that PP will continue to be weak. With the deep loss of PDH profit, attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 yesterday was 6278, with a daily increase of 1.95%. The trading volume was 566,939, and the position decreased by 18,588. The 05 - contract basis was - 158 (compared to - 138 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 22 (compared to - 38 the previous day) [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6020 yuan/ton, 6120 yuan/ton, and 6220 yuan/ton respectively yesterday, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1] Spot News - The futures market rebounded with fluctuations, but it had limited impact on the spot market. At the end of the month, traders focused on fulfilling their planned volumes and actively sold goods, with limited increase in quotes. Downstream industries were still worried about the future market and purchased cautiously. The daily trading volume in the market was lower than that of PE. Warehouse receipts remained at a high level, and new orders from downstream industries were insufficient. Some PDH devices are planned to stop production in January, but the scale is not large. The end - of - year demand lacks flexibility, and the industry's willingness to hold goods is limited in the continuous decline, putting pressure on the basis. The prices in the PP US - dollar market partially declined. Overseas suppliers were not enthusiastic about offering prices to China, and downstream industries continued to make rigid - demand purchases, with no improvement in trading [1] Market Condition Analysis - The cost of crude oil is expected to fluctuate narrowly, providing limited support to the PP cost side. The chemical configuration in the market is differentiated, and the hedging logic of aromatics - olefins is continuously strengthened. With no new production before the 2605 contract on the supply side, the game of existing supply and demand intensifies. On the demand side, new orders from downstream industries weaken, and downstream factories' procurement remains cautious, leading to weak demand. Overall, the fundamentals at the end of the year provide limited support. Although the PDH profit is at a new low, upstream companies have locked in raw materials and made some pre - sales earlier, so the willingness to reduce production is not strong. It is expected that PP will continue to be weak. With the deep loss of PDH profit, attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0 [3]

2025年12月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：盘面资金博弈，追高仍需谨慎 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：高位震荡，关注复产进展与情绪降温 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注工厂减产情况 | 6 | | 多晶硅：增加交割厂库，关注情绪面 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 25 日 镍：盘面资金博弈，追高仍需谨慎 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 128,000 | 4,560 | 14,200 | 10,91 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The trends are described as high - level fluctuations for iron ore, wide - range oscillations for rebar and hot - rolled coil, wide - range oscillations due to market information disturbances for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, repeated oscillations for coke and coking coal, and low - level oscillations for logs [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 779.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase. The previous day's position was 553,717 lots, a decrease of 317 lots. Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) dropped 3.0 yuan/ton to 869.0 yuan/ton, PB fines (61.5%) dropped 3.0 yuan/ton to 787.0 yuan/ton, etc. The basis for different varieties decreased [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 12 - month loan prime rate (LPR) was announced, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. There was no change from the previous month [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: For rebar RB2605, the previous day's closing price was 3,136 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase. For hot - rolled coil HC2605, the closing price was 3,285 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase. Spot prices in most regions remained unchanged [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data from SteelUnion on December 18, rebar production increased by 2.90 thousand tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 16.80 thousand tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 8.25 thousand tons. Total inventory decreased, and apparent demand for rebar increased while that for hot - rolled coil decreased [9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: In futures, the prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had varying degrees of increase. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese and related raw materials are provided, and the price differences between futures and spot, near - and far - month contracts, and cross - varieties also changed [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 24, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported. Some silicon - iron furnaces were shut down and restarted, and some silicon - manganese furnaces were newly ignited. The production of silicon - manganese in some northern regions decreased, and the production of silicon - iron in Qinghai decreased [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The previous day's futures closing price of coking coal JM2605 was 1,132 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton with a 0.6% increase, and that of coke J2605 was 1,746 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton with a 0.3% increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions remained unchanged, while some prices changed [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 12 - month loan prime rate (LPR) was announced, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. There was no change from the previous month [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices of different contracts of logs had small increases, while trading volumes decreased significantly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with only a few showing small changes [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 22, the 12 - month loan prime rate (LPR) was announced, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. There was no change from the previous month [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22].

2025年12月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期节奏反弹，高度有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不大，区间操作为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：国储收储价上调，影响偏多 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：弱基差预期 | 7 | | 棉花：期价震荡偏强，注意整体市场情绪20251225 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：投机需求兑现 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 25 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：短期节奏反弹，高度有限 豆油：美豆驱动不大，区间操作为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日 盘） | 涨跌幅 0.02% | 收盘价 （夜 盘） | 涨跌幅 0.78% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

2025 年 12 月 24 日 黄金、白银、铂、钯、铜期货将创下上市以来新高 铂、 钯、白银、镍、碳酸锂期货将震荡偏强 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期 2025 年 12 月 23 日期货主力合约行 情走势大概率如下： | 期 | 货 | 主力合 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | 支撑位 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | | 约 | | | | | | 股指 | | IF2603 | 偏弱震荡 | 4583 和 4605 点 | 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the daily statistics of futures and options markets for various commodities, including agricultural products, energy chemicals, black commodities, and metals, on December 23, 2025, covering data such as closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [1][5][9][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Data 3.1.1 Futures Market Statistics - The closing prices of various agricultural products showed different trends, with cotton, apple, and palm oil rising by 70, 81, and 72 respectively, while peanut, egg, and红枣 fell by 12, 12, and 70 respectively [1] - The trading volumes and open interests of most varieties also changed, with corn starch and soybean meal showing significant changes in trading volume and open interest [1] 3.1.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of options for different agricultural products had different degrees of change, and the Put - Call Ratios (PCR) also showed different trends [3] 3.1.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of different agricultural products' options were presented, with the implied volatilities of some varieties such as palm oil and soybean meal having certain changes [4] 3.2 Energy Chemical Data 3.2.1 Futures Market Statistics - Among energy chemical products, PVC, short - fiber, and urea rose by 147, 20, and 23 respectively, while LPG, BR rubber, and asphalt fell by 94, 55, and 18 respectively [5] - The trading volumes and open interests of different varieties also changed, with PVC and methanol showing relatively large changes in trading volume [5] 3.2.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of energy chemical options changed, and the PCR values also showed different trends, such as the PCR of PTA options having a certain increase [6][7] 3.2.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of energy chemical options were provided, with the implied volatilities of some varieties like PTA and PVC being relatively high [8] 3.3 Black Data 3.3.1 Futures Market Statistics - In the black commodity market, silicon iron and rebar rose by 4 and 2 respectively, while manganese silicon and iron ore fell by 18 and 3 respectively [9] - The trading volumes and open interests of different varieties changed, with the trading volume of iron ore decreasing significantly [9] 3.3.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of black commodity options changed, and the PCR values also showed different trends, such as the PCR of iron ore options increasing [9] 3.3.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of black commodity options were presented, with the implied volatility of rebar options having a relatively large change [10] 3.4 Metal Data 3.4.1 Futures Market Statistics - Among metals, silver, nickel, and tin rose by 231, 1740, and 3490 respectively, while copper, zinc, and aluminum fell by 390, 25, and 25 respectively [11] - The trading volumes and open interests of different varieties changed, with the trading volume of silver decreasing significantly [11] 3.4.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of metal options changed, and the PCR values also showed different trends, such as the PCR of silver options increasing [12] 3.4.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatilities, historical volatilities, and skewness of metal options were provided, with the implied volatility of silver being relatively high [13]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is expected to experience narrow - range fluctuations, the alumina market is expected to rebound from the bottom, and the cast aluminum alloy market will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - In the US, the October durable - goods orders decreased by 2.2% month - on - month, far below expectations, but core durable - goods orders increased for seven consecutive months. The manufacturing orders are still growing in absolute terms. The non - defense capital goods orders including aircraft in October grew stronger than expected, and non - defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft increased by 0.5% month - on - month, up for four consecutive months, indicating strong corporate equipment spending at the beginning of the fourth quarter [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Baysent believes that the Fed has room to adjust the inflation target of 2%. An inflation target range of 1.5% - 2.5% or 1% - 3% is worth discussing after the inflation rate steadily falls to 2% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 22,195 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,941 US dollars, unchanged. Trading volumes and positions of related contracts showed different degrees of changes. The LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio was 14.32%, and the LME aluminum cash - 3M spread was - 44.27 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,520 yuan, up 22 yuan from the previous day. Trading volumes and positions of related contracts decreased. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract was - 10 yuan [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21,265 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day. Trading volumes increased, while positions decreased. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract was - 95 yuan, and the spot premium was - 170 yuan [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 588,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The aluminum spot import loss was 2,063.71 yuan, and the 3M import loss was 2,010.98 yuan. The export profit of aluminum sheets and coils was 3,580.61 yuan. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5,641.59 yuan [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,737 yuan, down 14 yuan from the previous day. The alumina price at the Lianyungang port of entry was 2,795 yuan, up 50 yuan. The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was - 147 yuan [1]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The prices of imported bauxite from Australia, Indonesia, and Guinea showed different degrees of changes, with the Australian imported bauxite price at 67 US dollars per ton (Al:48 - 50%, Si:8 - 10%) [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was - 1 yuan, and the price of Baotai ADC12 was 21,300 yuan [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,430 yuan, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of aluminum is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend; the trend intensities of alumina and aluminum alloy are 0, indicating a neutral trend [2][3].

【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 2025 年 12 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4104 | -13（-0.32%） | 4118 +14（+0.34%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2745 | +5（+0.18%） | 2756 +14（+0.51%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1063 | -1.0（-0.09%） | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 304 | +2.3（+0.76%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 较昨持平至+40； 3040～3120， | 现货基差M2605+360， | 持平； 2026年1-2月或2-3月 | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 持平； ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of copper is rising due to the continuous decline of the US dollar [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Change**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 93,930, with a daily decline of 0.41%, and the night - session closing price was 94,890, with a night - session increase of 1.02%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,055, with an increase of 1.21% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 260,740, a decrease of 144,031 from the previous day, and the open interest was 635,670, a decrease of 9,850. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 26,306, an increase of 10,441, and the open interest was 342,000, a decrease of 2,837 [1] - **Inventory and Cancellation Rate**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 49,543, an increase of 1,001. The LME Copper inventory was 158,575, an increase of 825, and the cancellation rate was 30.82%, a decrease of 1.98% [1] - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads such as LME copper premium/discount, bonded warehouse warrant premium, etc., showed different changes compared with the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: In 2026, efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, control increments, reduce inventories, and optimize supplies according to local conditions. The US Q3 GDP increased by 4.3% year - on - year, the core PCE increased by 2.9%, the October durable goods orders decreased by 2.2% month - on - month, and the consumer confidence in December declined for five consecutive months. The labor market is recovering [1] - **Industry**: Glencore expanded its business in Peru by acquiring the Quechua copper project. The Peruvian Congress extended the temporary licenses of small - scale miners to the end of 2026. Kazakhstan's refined copper output from January to November 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year, reaching 431,998 tons [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 1, indicating a relatively neutral view on the copper market trend [3]