Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The auction price of lithium carbonate is slightly at a discount to the market, and the range - bound trend may continue [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price is 85,040 yuan, the trading volume is 75,743, and the open interest is 108,394. For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 85,100 yuan, the trading volume is 1,245,424, and the open interest is 392,675. The warehouse receipt volume is 21,679 lots [1]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2509 is - 4,040 yuan, spot - 2511 is - 4,100 yuan, 2509 - 2511 is - 60 yuan, electric carbon - industrial carbon is 2,200 yuan, and spot - CIF is 12,474 yuan [1]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 926 US dollars, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,030 yuan [1]. - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,000 yuan, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,800 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 77,110 yuan, etc [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 80,946 yuan/ton, up 2,822 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,000 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,800 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton [2]. - On August 13, Albemarle's battery - grade lithium carbonate auction ended. 100 tons of Ronghui Lithium Industry and 100 tons of Yongshan Lithium Industry's lithium carbonate were auctioned, with成交 prices of 85,000 yuan/ton and 84,388 yuan/ton [3]. - Ganfeng Lithium announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary Ganfeng International will jointly develop the Pozuelos - Pastos Grandes salt lake basin in Argentina with LAR [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view of the peanut market is "near - strong, far - weak". The peanut trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The prices of important peanut varieties such as Liaoning 308, Henan Baisha, Xingcheng Xiaoriben, and Sudan refined rice remained unchanged at 8,200 yuan/ton, 8,160 yuan/ton, 8,060 yuan/ton, and 8,775 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices**: PK510 closed at 8,116 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.47%, and PK511 closed at 7,988 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.73% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: PK510 had a trading volume of 64,410 lots (an increase of 35,782 lots) and an open interest of 89,499 lots (a decrease of 6,193 lots); PK511 had a trading volume of 72,641 lots (an increase of 39,589 lots) and an open interest of 93,792 lots (an increase of 427 lots). The total trading volume of the peanut market was 167,497 lots (an increase of 94,598 lots), and the total open interest was 229,647 lots (a decrease of 3,660 lots) [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of peanut warehouse receipts in the market was 0, with no change [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Liaoning 308 was 84 yuan/ton, Henan Baisha was 44 yuan/ton, Xingcheng Xiaoriben was - 56 yuan/ton, Sudan refined rice was 659 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 11 inter - period spread was 128 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Focus - In Henan, new peanuts in some areas are gradually coming onto the market. The prices are stable with limited trading. In Jilin, it is mainly inventory trading, and the prices are generally stable. New peanuts such as Silihong are expected to be listed in mid - to - late September, and 308 is expected to be listed around mid - October. In Liaoning, the raw material acquisition at the grass - roots level has ended, and it is mainly inventory trading with stable prices. In Shandong, it is mainly cold - storage peanut trading, and most areas are in the final stage of trading with limited inventory [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The peanut trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market outlook, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the caustic soda industry is "Stronger Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost support for caustic soda is strong due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine, and there are still expectations for demand during the peak season. The expected commissioning of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year will lead to a tight supply of caustic soda in the region, and the alumina inventory preparation will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. The export support remains strong, but the domestic caustic soda price will be affected by the inventory stocking rhythm [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On August 14, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2,481, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 810, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2,531, and the basis was 50 [1] Spot News - Starting from August 14, the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price at 770 yuan/ton [2] Market Condition Analysis - The cost support for caustic soda is strong due to the weak liquid chlorine. There are expectations for demand during the peak season, especially with the expected commissioning of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year, leading to a tight supply of caustic soda in the region. The alumina inventory preparation will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. The export support remains strong, but the domestic caustic soda price will be affected by the inventory stocking rhythm [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a "Stronger" trend [3]

商 品 研 2025 年 08 月 14 日 工业硅：市场情绪有所降温 多晶硅：关注消息面扰动 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） Si2511成交量（手） | 8,600 510,280 | -240 -10,224 | -100 45,197 | -95 -963,713 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 284,500 | 5,640 | 75,764 | -118,390 | | | | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 51,290 | -510 | -55 | - | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2511成交量（手） | 395,645 | -86,164 | -24,556 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 132,463 | -3,592 | -5,933 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and investment suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc. For example, PX has increasing supply - demand pressure and a weakening trend; PTA has low processing fees and attention should be paid to unplanned production cuts [2][9]. - Different futures have different trend intensities, with values ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). For instance, PX, PTA, and MEG have a trend intensity of -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: PX prices fell on the 13th, affected by falling naphtha prices and weakening downstream demand. PTA spot prices declined, and MEG had device operation changes such as a 40 - ton/year device reducing load and an 80 - ton/year device restarting [6][7]. - **Trend and Suggestions**: PX has a weakening trend, with the main contract shifting positions and monthly spread reverse arbitrage. PTA has a weakening trend, and in the medium - term, hold long MEG and short PTA positions. MEG has a weak - oscillating trend, and maintain the 9 - 1 positive spread within the -50 to 0 range and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [9][10]. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price and trading volume of rubber changed slightly. In the spot market, the prices of some rubber varieties declined slightly. The inventory in Qingdao decreased [12][14]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend, and it is expected to oscillate [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of butadiene rubber decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased. In the spot market, the prices of some butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber increased slightly. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased [16][18]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. In the short - term, it may be slightly stronger, and in the medium - term, it will operate within the fundamental valuation range [18]. Asphalt - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the prices of asphalt contracts decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. In the spot market, the prices of some regions decreased slightly, and the refinery inventory rate decreased slightly [19]. - **Market News**: This week, the domestic asphalt shipment volume decreased, the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt increased [35]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [28]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of LLDPE decreased, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions decreased slightly [36]. - **Market Situation**: Macro data is bearish, the cost of polyethylene decreases, the supply pressure increases, and the downstream demand is weak. The overall trend still faces pressure [36][37]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [39]. PP - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of PP decreased, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions decreased slightly [40]. - **Market Situation**: The cost of PP is weak, the demand has no obvious bright spots, the supply pressure increases, but short - term short - chasing needs to be cautious [41]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [42]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: The 09 - contract futures price and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong are provided [44]. - **Market Situation**: The cost support of caustic soda is strong, the peak - season demand is expected, and the export support is still strong [46]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [47]. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of pulp increased, and the trading volume and open interest increased. In the spot market, the prices of some pulp varieties changed slightly [51]. - **Market News**: The spot price of hardwood pulp increased, and the price of softwood pulp was stable. The price of household paper was in a range - bound state [52][54]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [51]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of glass increased slightly, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions were stable [57]. - **Market Situation**: The domestic float - glass price was stable with minor fluctuations, and the futures had limited impact on the spot [57]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [57]. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of methanol decreased, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions changed slightly [60]. - **Market Situation**: The methanol spot price index increased slightly, and the short - term market is in a narrow - range oscillation pattern [62]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [63]. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of urea decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions were stable [65]. - **Market News**: The inventory of urea enterprises increased this week, and the short - term market will oscillate within a range [66]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [67]. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of styrene contracts decreased, and the profit of non - integrated and integrated production decreased [68]. - **Market Situation**: Pure benzene is short - term strong, while the fundamentals of styrene are weak. Focus on compressing the profit of styrene [69]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [68]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of soda ash decreased, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions decreased slightly [73]. - **Market Situation**: The domestic soda - ash market continued to oscillate at a low level, with supply increasing and demand tepid [73]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [73]. LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the prices of LPG and propylene contracts changed slightly, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The PDH and MTBE operating rates changed [77]. - **Market News**: The expected prices of Saudi CP for propane and butane changed. There are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [82][83][84]. - **Trend**: The trend intensities of LPG and propylene are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [81]. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of PVC decreased, and the basis and 9 - 1 monthly spread are provided. In the spot market, the price was stable with a weakening tendency [85]. - **Market Situation**: The fundamentals of PVC have not improved significantly. The high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change, and the market may short the chlor - alkali profit [85][86]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [88]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil contracts decreased. In the spot market, the prices of fuel oil in various regions decreased [89]. - **Trend**: The trend intensities of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are both 0, indicating a neutral trend. Fuel oil continues to decline, and the short - term weakness will continue [89]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the prices of container freight index (European line) contracts changed. The SCFIS and SCFI for European and US - West routes decreased [91]. - **Trend**: Hold 10 short positions as appropriate [29]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Trend**: In the short - term, it is an oscillating market. Long PF and short PR [32]. Offset - Printing Paper - **Trend**: It oscillates at a low level and has limited upward momentum [33]. Pure Benzene - **Trend**: It is expected to be slightly stronger and oscillate in the short - term [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The supporting logic at the mine end is weakening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts the price elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The game between long and short positions intensifies, and the steel price fluctuates [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The auction price is slightly at a discount to the market price, and the range - bound shock trend may continue [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment has cooled down [2][12]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the disturbances from the news [2][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,340 yuan, down 100 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,130 yuan, down 70 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 89,510 lots, down 6,845 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 160,324 lots, up 29,895 lots from T - 1 [4]. - **Industry Chain**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 123,150 yuan, up 350 yuan from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 923 yuan, up 2 yuan from T - 1 [4]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [4]. - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial - production stage [5]. - Environmental violations were found in Indonesia's IMIP, and possible fines may be imposed on illegal companies [5][6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [6]. - The approved RKAB production of Indonesian nickel - mining companies in 2025 is 3.64 billion tons, higher than the 2024 target [6]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended the production of all EF production lines, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [6][7]. - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit the RKAB for 2026 starting from October 2025 [7]. - A steel mill in Shandong started maintenance and suspended long - term supply agreements due to capacity limitations and a 5% annual production reduction target [7]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [8]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 85,040 yuan, up 2,480 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 75,743 lots, down 86,924 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 108,394 lots, down 9,256 lots from T - 1 [9]. - **Industry Chain**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,000 yuan, up 3,000 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 78,800 yuan, up 3,000 yuan from T - 1 [9]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 80,946 yuan/ton, up 2,822 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [10]. - The auction prices of 100 tons of Ronghui Lithium Industry and 100 tons of Yongshan Lithium Industry's lithium carbonate were 85,000 yuan/ton and 84,388 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - Ganfeng Lithium's subsidiary will jointly develop the PPGS lithium - salt lake project in Argentina [11]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 510,280 lots, down 10,224 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 284,500 lots, up 5,640 lots from T - 1. The closing price of the PS2511 contract was down 510 yuan from T - 1 [13]. - **Price and Inventory**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, with no change from T - 1. The industrial - silicon enterprise inventory was 170,000 tons, down 30,000 tons from T - 1. The polysilicon - manufacturer inventory was 233,000 tons, up 4,000 tons from T - 1 [13]. Macro and Industry News - On August 12, 2025, the environmental impact report (draft for public comments) of Haidong Hongshi Semiconductor's 500 - ton silicon - based electronic special gas project was publicized [15]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [15].

2025年08月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪偏弱，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪偏弱，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：偏强震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：偏强震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 14 日 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 795. 0 | -6. 0 | -0.75% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 452. 419 | 8, 620 | ...

Report Overview - The report is about the international crude oil market on August 14, 2025, providing price information, industry news, and data updates [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Hold long positions in the positive spread of crude oil as appropriate and pay attention to the meeting between Russian and US leaders [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures Prices - WTI September crude oil futures closed down $0.52/barrel, a 0.82% decline, at $62.65/barrel [1]. - Brent October crude oil futures closed down $0.49/barrel, a 0.74% decline, at $65.63/barrel [1]. - SC2510 crude oil futures closed down 4.50 yuan/barrel, a 0.92% decline, at 485.70 yuan/barrel [1]. Industry News - US President Trump told Zelensky and allies that he would not discuss territorial division with Putin this week [1]. - Trump appointed David Rosner as the chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [1]. - Trump will propose to jointly develop rare - earth mineral resources in Alaska with Putin during the Russia - US summit and lift the export ban on Russian aircraft parts [1]. - Trump said Russia would face consequences if it did not stop the war [1]. - The 4 - week average supply of petroleum products reached the highest level since August 2023 [1]. - France, the UK, and Germany's foreign ministers said they would activate the sanctions "restoration mechanism" against Iran if a satisfactory solution was not found by the end of August [1]. US Oil Data (Week Ending August 8) - Crude oil exports increased by 259,000 barrels/day to 3.577 million barrels/day [1]. - Domestic crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels to 13.327 million barrels/day [1]. - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.036 million barrels to 427 million barrels, a 0.72% increase [1]. - The four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 21.159 million barrels/day, a 2.89% increase year - on - year [1]. - Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 226,000 barrels to 403.2 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [1]. - Commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.92 million barrels/day, an increase of 958,000 barrels/day from the previous week [1]. - EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 45,000 barrels, compared with 453,000 barrels in the previous value [1]. Russia's Production Cut Plan - Russia announced a production cut of 85,000 barrels/day per month from July to November and an additional 9,000 barrels/day in December [1]. IEA Monthly Report Forecasts - Global oil supply is expected to have a record surplus next year [1]. - Global crude oil refinery runs will approach the highest level in history in August, reaching 85.6 million barrels/day [1]. - The average total demand in 2025 is predicted to be 103.7 million barrels/day [1]. - The 2025 global oil supply growth forecast was raised from 2.1 million barrels/day to 2.5 million barrels/day, and the 2026 forecast was raised from 1.3 million barrels/day to 1.9 million barrels/day [1]. - The 2025 global oil demand growth forecast was lowered from 704,000 barrels/day to 685,000 barrels/day, and the 2026 forecast was lowered from 722,000 barrels/day to 699,000 barrels/day [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX has a weak unilateral trend, with the main contract shifting positions and a reverse spread in the monthly spread. The short - term PXN has support, and it is necessary to pay attention to the repair of terminal orders starting from late August [8]. - PTA has a weak unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA. Under low processing fees, pay attention to unplanned production cuts and conduct a positive spread in the 9 - 1 monthly spread. PTA has reduced supply and increased demand, but the high inventory of grey fabrics makes it difficult to form an effective positive feedback [8]. - MEG has a weakly oscillating unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA. Maintain the 9 - 1 positive spread operation in the range of - 50 to 0 and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On the 13th, the PX price fell. An Asian spot in September was traded at $831. The PX price lost support due to the decline in crude oil futures. The supply recovery and weak downstream demand depressed the market sentiment, but some participants thought the market was relatively tight [5]. - **PTA**: The spot price dropped to 4,695 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 09 - 13 [6]. - **MEG**: A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - based ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi reduced its load to replace the catalyst, and a 800,000 - ton/year plant in Zhejiang restarted [6]. - **Polyester**: On the 13th, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 48%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of just over 40% [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is - 1, indicating a weak trend [8]. Viewpoints and Suggestions - **PX**: Weak unilateral trend, main contract position shift, monthly spread reverse spread. PXN has short - term support, and pay attention to terminal orders from late August [8]. - **PTA**: Weak unilateral trend, hold the mid - term strategy of long MEG and short PTA. Pay attention to unplanned production cuts and 9 - 1 monthly spread positive spread. PTA has reduced supply and increased demand, but the high grey fabric inventory affects the positive feedback [8]. - **MEG**: Weakly oscillating unilateral trend, hold the mid - term strategy of long MEG and short PTA. Maintain the 9 - 1 positive spread operation in the - 50 to 0 range and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread. This week, the supply and demand of ethylene glycol both increased, but the terminal demand is weak [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The stock index options showed an upward volatility increase, with a significant rise in skewness. It is advisable to consider the bullish call spread strategy [1]. 3. Summary of Different Parts Market Data Statistics - **Underlying Market**: Included the closing price, change, trading volume, and change in trading volume of various indexes and ETFs such as the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and Shenzhen Component 100 ETF. Also presented the synthetic futures and basis of the current and next months [1]. - **Option Market**: Provided the trading volume, change, open interest, change, VL - PCR, OI - PCR, and the maximum positions of call and put options (near - month) for different stock index options and ETF options, like the Shanghai Composite 50 Index option and Huatai - Ba瑞 300ETF option [1]. Option Volatility Statistics - **Near - month**: Showed the ATM - IV, IV change, same - term HV, HV change, Skew, Skew change, VIX, and VIX change for various options, including the Shanghai Composite 50 Index option and CSI 1000 Index option [4]. - **Next - month**: Displayed the ATM - IV, IV change, same - term HV, HV change, Skew, and Skew change for different options [4]. Option Charts - **Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option**: Included the full - contract PCR chart, main - contract skewness chart, volatility cone chart, and volatility term - structure chart [8]. - **CSI 300 Index Option**: Had the main - contract volatility chart, full - contract PCR chart, main - contract skewness chart, volatility cone chart, and volatility term - structure chart [12][13]. - **CSI 1000 Index Option**: Contained the main - contract volatility chart, full - contract PCR chart, main - contract skewness chart, volatility cone chart, and volatility term - structure chart [15][17]. - **ETF Options**: Each type of ETF option (such as Shanghai Composite 50ETF option, Huatai - Ba瑞 300ETF option) had corresponding main - contract volatility charts, full - contract PCR charts, main - contract skewness charts, volatility cone charts, and volatility term - structure charts [19][23][34].