Report Overview - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 136, 2025) [1] - Release Date: August 12, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - CEA shows a decline in volume and price, with CEA22 dropping significantly and the main targets remaining weak; CCER has light trading volume [2] - It is recommended that enterprises with carbon quota gaps make phased low - price purchases before the end of August [3] - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal. Expected depletion is in mid - early October, but signs of reversal may appear in Q3. Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate, and from September, prices may rise due to increasing compliance pressure [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs CEA Market - CEA22 dropped by 3.01%, with a closing price of 70.80 yuan/ton. CEA23 and CEA24 also declined slightly, by 0.23% and 0.05% respectively. CEA19 - 20 and CEA21 remained unchanged [7] - The total CEA volume includes 29.3 tons in the listing market and 19.0 tons in the bulk market [2] CCER Market - The CCER listing agreement trading volume was 0.21 tons, with an average transaction price of 82.33 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 4.26%, and a transaction amount of 17,500 yuan [2][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The August USDA report is bullish, as it lowers the ending stocks and inventory - to - use ratios of global and US soybeans for the 2025/26 season. The tightening of the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is the core bullish factor. This not only provides current bullish support but also has potential bullish implications, boosting US soybean prices and, through cost transmission, helping domestic soybean meal futures prices rise. Attention should be paid to the export demand of US soybeans [1][44]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 8 - month USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Report - **Global and US Soybean Supply - Demand Adjustments**: In 2025/26, global soybean production is estimated at 426.39 million tons, a 1.29 - million - ton decrease from July, mainly due to a 1.16 - million - ton reduction in US production. Consumption is estimated at 425.1 million tons, a 70,000 - ton decrease. Exports are estimated at 187.44 million tons, a 190,000 - ton decrease. Ending stocks are estimated at 124.9 million tons, a 1.17 - million - ton decrease. In 2024/25, global soybean production is estimated at 423.97 million tons, a 1.97 - million - ton increase from July. Consumption is estimated at 410.69 million tons, a 1.65 - million - ton increase. Exports are estimated at 181.75 million tons, a 1.02 - million - ton increase [4][5][7]. - **Global Soybean Meal Supply - Demand Adjustments**: In 2025/26, global soybean meal production is estimated at 288.58 million tons, unchanged from July. Consumption is estimated at 284.35 million tons, a 10,000 - ton decrease. Exports are estimated at 82.04 million tons, an 80,000 - ton increase. Ending stocks are estimated at 18.07 million tons, a 500,000 - ton decrease, and the inventory - to - use ratio decreases slightly [26]. 3.2 US Soybean Exports - **Export Outlook Improvement**: In mid - to - late July 2025, the US reached trade agreements with the EU, Japan, Indonesia, and South Korea. Sino - US economic and trade talks are ongoing, improving the outlook for US soybean exports [30]. - **Export Progress in Different Seasons**: For the 2024/25 season, as of the week ending July 31, 2025, cumulative US soybean export sales were about 51.49 million tons, with a sales progress of about 100.9%. The USDA has raised the export estimate three times. For the 2025/26 season, as of the same week, cumulative export sales were about 3.58 million tons, with a sales progress of about 7.7%, lagging behind the same period last year. Chinese buyers have not purchased new - crop US soybeans for the 2025/26 season [32][34]. 3.3 US Soybean Weather The August USDA report significantly raises the US soybean yield estimate, but there is still uncertainty in the weather. The current yield estimate is close to the "perfect weather" scenario, with limited upside but significant downside potential. Recent weather forecasts show that there are some flaws in the weather in the US soybean - growing areas, which may lead to a decrease in yield [38][39]. 3.4 Summary The August USDA report is bullish, tightening the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet. The "low - area, high - yield" pattern of new - crop US soybeans has both current and potential bullish implications. Attention should be paid to the export demand of US soybeans [44].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View Japan's steel industry entered a stagnant period in the 1970s due to multiple pressures such as the oil crisis, yen appreciation, and trade frictions. The Japanese government implemented supply - side reform policies in stages, and through equipment elimination, mergers and acquisitions, and industrial upgrading, the steel industry successfully transformed from scale expansion to high - value - added operations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Japan's "Supply - Side Reform" Background - **Macroeconomic Pressure**: From 1973 to 1980, Japan's GDP average growth rate dropped from 8.8% to 3.9% due to "two oil crises, yen appreciation, and trade frictions" [7]. - **Steel Industry Situation**: Japan's crude steel production reached a peak of 119 million tons in 1973. After that, demand declined, costs soared, equipment utilization was low, and enterprises suffered losses as urbanization demand decreased and energy costs rose [7]. 3.2 Supply - Side Regulation Policy Implementation - **Administrative Capacity - Reduction Policy Stage (1978 - 1983)**: In 1978, the Japanese government issued the "Temporary Measures Law for the Stabilization of Specific Depressed Industries" (the "Temporary Safety Law"), which allowed the government to designate "structurally depressed industries" and implement "government - funded equipment acquisition and scrapping." From 1978 - 1981, about 5.5 million tons of steel - making capacity was dismantled, and the government paid about 22 billion yen. In 1983, the "Temporary Measures Law for the Improvement of Specific Industrial Structures" (the "Industrial Structure Law") included blast furnace enterprises in capacity - reduction and provided tax incentives and low - interest financing. The "Temporary Measures Law for the Unemployed in Specific Depressed Industries" was also introduced to support employment [10][12]. - **Policy Shift to Market - Oriented Capacity Reduction (1987 - 1999)**: The "Temporary Measures Law for the Smooth Transformation of Industrial Structure" (the "Smoothing Law") in 1987 marked a shift towards a market - oriented approach. The "Special Measures Law for Industrial Revitalization" in 1999 upgraded the previous administrative - order - based capacity reduction to a new framework of "enterprise - led, government - incentivized, and market - cleared" [13]. - **Enterprise - Driven Capacity Reduction, Mergers, and Overseas Expansion (After 2000)**: Steel enterprises continued to adjust production capacity according to market conditions. For example, Nippon Steel shut down plants and reduced production. There were three major mergers in the Japanese steel industry in 1970, 2001, and 2012. After 2000, the CR4 of the Japanese steel industry increased from 68.9% (1980) to 88.8% (2023). Enterprises also transferred some production capacity overseas and focused on high - value - added products at home [14][15]. 3.3 Policy Effects - **Capacity Disposal**: After the implementation of the "Temporary Safety Law" and the "Industrial Structure Law", the average completion rate of excess equipment disposal in specific depressed industries reached 95%. The number of blast furnaces decreased from over 60 to about 25, and the capacity index dropped from 124.8 in 1980 to 88.5 in 2025 [17]. - **Market Competition Pattern**: The CR4 of the Japanese steel industry increased significantly after 2000. - **Product Structure**: Low - end production capacity was transferred overseas, and high - value - added products such as automotive sheets and special steel were focused on at home. Japan accounted for 71% of global special steel patent applications, and plates became the leading export product, supporting the increase in export unit prices. - **Efficiency and Profitability**: Giants such as Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal and JFE achieved capacity intensification through mergers, reducing unit production costs. The profit margin of the steel industry after 2000 exceeded the level during the bubble economy period, and the R & D investment ratio was higher than equipment investment [17].

Report Overview - The report analyzes the reasons behind the significant fluctuations in European diesel prices since June 2025, predicts future price trends and driving factors, and discusses potential impacts of policy changes and unexpected events on the market [1]. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The significant fluctuations in European diesel prices are mainly driven by changes in supply and demand. In the short - term, prices may face downward pressure due to increased production in Europe and restored external supply. However, in the long - term, the market remains uncertain due to factors such as limited production growth potential, a fragile supply chain, sanctions, and unexpected events [20][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fluctuation Starting Point: Reasons for the Sharp Rise in European Diesel - **Supply - side**: After the Russia - Ukraine war, European refineries shifted to lighter crude oil, squeezing the middle distillate yield. In 2023 - 2024, refineries further tilted the yield towards gasoline, reducing diesel production. Western Europe's diesel import dependence is about 35%, with some countries exceeding 50%, and over 90% of imports come from the US, the Middle East, and India [3][4]. - **Demand - side**: In the short - term, the change in ship - fuel demand in the Mediterranean region and increased diesel demand in other regions are driving factors. After the sulfur emission control in the Mediterranean on May 1, 2025, the demand for low - sulfur diesel increased. In addition, Egypt's increased diesel imports and India's stable domestic demand also contributed to the tight supply in Europe [12][13]. 3.2 Future Market Trends - **European production recovery and external supply restoration**: Rising diesel prices have led to a recovery in European refining profits and an increase in refinery operating rates. However, the growth of gasoline production may limit the increase in diesel production. Externally, the US may increase diesel production, and the supply from the Middle East and the US to Europe is rising. Overall, European diesel prices may face downward pressure, but unexpected events could interrupt the supply recovery process [14][20]. - **Impact on the Asian market**: The rise in European diesel prices has attracted Middle Eastern and Indian diesel, pushing up Asian diesel prices. China and South Korea's export volumes will affect Asian supply. Overall, there is no significant supply growth pressure in Asia [27][28]. - **Future market outlook**: The European diesel crack spread may continue to decline as supply eases, and the Asian crack spread may follow. However, the downward space is narrowing due to limited production growth and a fragile supply chain. The market remains uncertain in the medium - to - long - term [34]. 3.3 Future Contradictions in the European Diesel Market - **EU's new sanctions and their impact on diesel logistics**: The 18th round of EU sanctions on Russia may reshape the diesel trade flow. India and Turkey are the most affected. India may face difficulties in adjusting its export sources, and Turkey may struggle to find alternative sources. This could lead to changes in the European diesel supply structure [35][37]. - **Russian diesel production and export prospects**: Russia's refinery operating rate is currently low, but supply is expected to increase. However, potential US sanctions could reduce Russia's diesel exports [41][42]. - **Impact of uncontrollable factors on diesel**: Weather conditions such as hurricanes, cold snaps, and low river levels can affect refinery production and oil transportation. Geopolitical conflicts may disrupt refinery operations and oil exports. Changes in the natural gas market can also impact diesel supply and demand [46][47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of various futures markets, including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural futures. Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, it predicts the price trends of different futures contracts on August 13, 2025, and also presents the market conditions on August 12, 2025. Additionally, it includes relevant macro - economic news and policies that may impact the futures markets [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation on August 13, 2025. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4173 and 4200 points, and support levels at 4131 and 4113 points [2][19]. - **Bond Futures**: Ten - year and thirty - year bond futures are likely to be in a weak - biased oscillation on August 13, 2025. T2509 will test support levels at 108.30 and 108.21 yuan, and resistance levels at 108.47 and 108.52 yuan; TL2509 will test support levels at 117.8 and 117.6 yuan, and resistance levels at 118.3 and 118.5 yuan [2][33][35]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures (AU2510) are likely to be in a consolidation phase on August 13, 2025, with support levels at 773.8 and 768.6 yuan/g, and resistance levels at 779.5 and 781.8 yuan/g. Silver futures (AG2510) are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance levels at 9239 and 9281 yuan/kg, and support levels at 9130 and 9100 yuan/kg [2][38][43]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are likely to be in a strong - biased oscillation on August 13, 2025. For example, CU2509 will attack resistance levels at 79700 and 80100 yuan/ton, with support levels at 79100 and 78800 yuan/ton [2][3][46]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures (SC2509) are likely to be in a weak - biased oscillation on August 13, 2025, testing support levels at 488 and 485 yuan/barrel, and resistance levels at 495 and 498 yuan/barrel [2][93]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and palm oil futures are likely to be in a strong - biased oscillation on August 13, 2025. For example, OI601 will attack resistance levels at 10253 and 10350 yuan/ton, with support levels at 10000 and 9916 yuan/ton [2][6][106]. 2. Macro - economic News and Policies - **Tariff Policy**: China and the US have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days, while retaining the remaining 10% tariffs [8]. - **Loan Subsidy Policies**: The Ministry of Finance and other departments have issued subsidy policies for personal consumption loans and service - industry business loans [8][9]. - **US - Russia Summit**: US President Trump and Russian President Putin will hold a one - on - one meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15, 2025 [9]. - **US CPI Data**: In July 2025, the US CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year [9]. 3. Market Conditions on August 12, 2025 - **Domestic Futures**: Most domestic commodity futures closed higher. Coking coal rose nearly 7%, and soda ash rose over 5%. However, rapeseed meal fell 3% [12]. - **International Markets**: COMEX gold futures fell 0.17%, and international crude oil futures declined. Some international agricultural products, such as ICE raw sugar futures, rose, while some, like CBOT corn futures, fell [12][13]. - **Stock Markets**: A - shares and US stocks closed higher, while European stocks showed mixed performance [16][17][18].

2025年08月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：关税乌龙影响价差 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：小幅反弹 | 3 | | 铜：美元回落，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：震荡上行 | 7 | | 铅：LME库存持续减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：重心上移 | 12 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：矿端支撑逻辑削弱，冶炼端逻辑限制弹性 | 14 | | 不锈钢：多空博弈加剧，钢价震荡运行 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：区间震荡 | 16 | | 工业硅：上游逐步复产，关注市场情绪 | 18 | | 多晶硅：关注市场信息扰动 | 18 | | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：板块情绪不减，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：板块情绪不减，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：偏强震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：偏强震荡 | 25 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 27 | | 对二甲苯：供需压力增加，趋势偏弱 | 2 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides daily data briefings on non - ferrous metals and precious metals on August 12, 2025, including gold, silver, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and tin [1] Group 2: Gold (AU) - The closing price of SHFE gold主力 contract was 776.04 yuan/gram on July 15, 2025, with a change of - 3.44 yuan compared to the previous day, - 3.44 yuan compared to the day before, and - 4.36 yuan compared to last week [1] - The closing price of COMEX gold主力 contract was 3393.70 dollars/ounce, down 34.90 dollars from the previous day, 64.50 dollars from the day before, and up 63.20 dollars from last week [1] - The London gold spot price was 3395.63 dollars/ounce, unchanged from the previous day and up 26.08 dollars from last week [1] Group 3: Silver (AG) - The closing price of SHFE silver主力 contract was 9187 yuan/kilogram on August 12, 2025, down 23 yuan from the previous day, up 112 yuan from last month, and down 38 yuan from the day before [1] - The closing price of COMEX silver主力 contract was 37.65 dollars/ounce, down 0.19 dollars from last week, down 0.86 dollars from last month, and down 0.34 dollars from the previous day [1] - The London silver spot price was 38.29 dollars/ounce, unchanged from the previous day, down 0.71 dollars from last week, and up 1.14 dollars from last month [1] Group 4: Copper (CU, BC) - The closing price of SHFE copper (CU)主力 contract was 79020 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 930 yuan from last week, up 440 yuan from last month, and unchanged from the previous day [1] - LME copper 3M closing price (15:00) was 9770.50 dollars/ton, up 4.50 dollars from the previous day, up 46.00 dollars from last week, and up 124.50 dollars from last month [1] - LME copper仓单 inventory was 155700 tons, down 150 tons from the previous day, up 16125 tons from last week, and up 46075 tons from last month [1] Group 5: Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - The closing price of SHFE aluminum (AL)主力 contract was 20735 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 35 yuan from the previous day, up 175 yuan from last week, and up 305 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of alumina (AO)主力 contract was 81 yuan/ton, down 143 yuan from last week and down 3308 yuan from last month [1] - LME aluminum 3M closing price (15:00) was 2605.00 dollars/ton, down 12.00 dollars from the previous day, up 12.50 dollars from last week, and up 31.00 dollars from last month [1] Group 6: Zinc (ZN) - The closing price of SHFE zinc (ZN)主力 contract was 22630 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 250 yuan from last week, up 545 yuan from last month, and up 40 yuan from the previous day [1] - LME zinc 3M closing price (15:00) was 2829 dollars/ton, up 57 dollars from last week, up 118 dollars from last month, and down 11 dollars from the previous day [1] - LME zinc仓单 inventory was 79550 tons, down 875 tons from the previous day, down 9675 tons from last week, and down 41800 tons from last month [1] Group 7: Lead (PB) - The closing price of SHFE lead (PB)主力 contract was 16915 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 30 yuan from last week, up 140 yuan from last month, and down 15 yuan from the previous day [1] - LME lead 3M closing price (15:00) was 2005.00 dollars/ton, down 5.00 dollars from the previous day, up 37.00 dollars from last week, and up 16.50 dollars from last month [1] - LME lead仓单 inventory was 262250 tons, down 3550 tons from the previous day, down 6350 tons from last week, and down 6975 tons from last month [1] Group 8: Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - The closing price of SHFE nickel (NI)主力 contract was 122440 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 1530 yuan from the previous day, up 3060 yuan from last week, and up 310 yuan from last month [1] - The closing price of stainless steel (SS)主力 contract was 13200 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan from the previous day, up 240 yuan from last week, and up 505 yuan from last month [1] - LME nickel 3M closing price (15:00) was 15295 dollars/ton, up 40 dollars from the previous day, up 285 dollars from last week, and up 180 dollars from last month [1] Group 9: Tin (SN) - The closing price of SHFE tin (SN)主力 contract was 270200 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 2710 yuan from the previous day, up 6960 yuan from last week, and up 1820 yuan from last month [1] - LME tin 3M closing price (15:00) was 33790 dollars/ton, up 50 dollars from the previous day, up 440 dollars from last week, and up 480 dollars from last month [1] - LME tin仓单 inventory was - 125 tons, down 230 tons from the previous day, up 1750 tons from last week, and up 40 tons from last month [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The trading volume of soybean oil call options has increased, the open interest has decreased, and the skew center of gravity has declined. One can consider buying out - of - the - money call options while selling out - of - the - money put options for appropriate hedging and constructing a long strategy [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Data Futures Market Statistics - Corn (c2509) closed at 2260 with a - 2% change, trading volume of 232359 (down 35998), and open interest of 605565 (down 32610) [2]. - Bean粕 (m2601) closed at 3091 with a 19% change, trading volume of 1107230 (down 436933), and open interest of 1757131 (up 62078) [2]. - Other agricultural products such as rapeseed meal, palm oil, etc. also have corresponding price, trading volume, and open interest changes [2]. Options Market Statistics - For corn, the main contract's option trading volume was 58727 (down 31416), PCR was 0.6895 (up 0.1468), open interest was 318653 (down 1206), and PCR of open interest was 0.5554 (down 0.0027) [3]. - Similar data are provided for other agricultural products' options [3]. Options Quantitative Indicators - Corn's main contract (c2509) had a remaining trading days of 8, at - the - money volatility of 8.65% (down 0.28%), ROE quantile of 23.33%, etc. [4]. - Other agricultural products also have their own option quantitative indicators [4]. 2. Energy and Chemical Data Futures Market Statistics - PTA (ta2509) closed at 4726 with a 20 change, trading volume of 365385 (down 77122), and open interest of 629155 (down 52737) [5]. - Other energy and chemical products like ethylene glycol, rubber, etc. have their respective data [5]. Options Market Statistics - For PTA, the main contract's option trading volume was 264136 (down 52604), PCR was 0.6238 (down 0.1576), open interest was 366366 (down 24430), and PCR of open interest was 0.5818 (down 0.016) [6]. - Other energy and chemical products' options also have corresponding data [6]. Options Quantitative Indicators - PTA's main contract (ta2509) had a remaining trading days of 17, at - the - money volatility of 14.64% (down 0.43%), 60 - day quantile of 1.67%, etc. [7]. - Other energy and chemical products have their own option quantitative indicators [7]. 3. Ferrous Metal Data Futures Market Statistics - Iron ore (i2601) closed at 801.0 with a 12.0 change, trading volume of 281002 (up 20878), and open interest of 443799 (up 51084) [8]. - Other ferrous metals such as power coal, rebar, etc. have their data [8]. Options Market Statistics - For iron ore, the main contract's option trading volume was 247048 (up 15274), PCR was 0.8162 (up 0.1061), open interest was 393480 (down 19535), and PCR of open interest was 1.2667 (up 0.0579) [9]. - Other ferrous metals' options have corresponding data [9]. Options Quantitative Indicators - Iron ore's main contract (i2509) had a remaining trading days of 4, at - the - money volatility of 20.03% (down 0.51%), 60 - day quantile of 76.67%, etc. [10]. - Other ferrous metals have their own option quantitative indicators [10]. 4. Non - Ferrous Metal Data Futures Market Statistics - Gold (au2510) closed at 776.04 with a - 3.44 change, trading volume of 194063 (down 84011), and open interest of 204736 (down 6908) [11]. - Other non - ferrous metals such as silver, copper, etc. have their data [11]. Options Market Statistics - For gold, the main contract's option trading volume was 36279 (down 8890), PCR was 0.6692 (up 0.139), open interest was 87000 (up 2590), and PCR of open interest was 0.6005 (down 0.0121) [12]. - Other non - ferrous metals' options have corresponding data [12]. Options Quantitative Indicators - Gold's main contract (au2510) had a remaining trading days of 313, at - the - money volatility of 12.39% (down 0.17%), 60 - day quantile of 1.67%, etc. [13]. - Other non - ferrous metals have their own option quantitative indicators [13].

2025年08月13日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 13 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：关税乌龙影响价差 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：小幅反弹 | 2 | | 铜：美元回落，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：震荡上行 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存持续减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：重心上移 | 11 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：矿端支撑逻辑削弱，冶炼端逻辑限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：多空博弈加剧，钢价震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 黄金：关税乌龙影响价差 白银：小幅反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 13, 2025 [1][4] - Report source: Guotai Junan Futures [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Group 3: Core Views - The report analyzes various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc., and provides trend judgments and investment suggestions for each variety [2]. Group 4: Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Supply - demand pressure increases, with a weakening trend. The main contract is shifting positions, and a 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended. PXN has short - term support [2][10]. - PTA: The trend is weak. Hold a mid - term position of long MEG and short PTA. Low processing fees may lead to unscheduled production cuts. A 1 - 5 reverse spread is also recommended [2][11]. - MEG: The trend is weakly oscillating. Hold a mid - term position of long MEG and short PTA. The 9 - 1 spread should be maintained in the range of - 50 to 0, and a 1 - 5 reverse spread can be considered [2][12]. Rubber - Rubber: It is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is neutral [2][13]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber: The fundamentals provide support, and it operates within the valuation range. Short - term is slightly strong, and mid - term is within the fundamental valuation range [2][20]. Asphalt - Asphalt: It mainly oscillates following crude oil. The trend strength is neutral [2][21]. LLDPE - LLDPE: The trend still faces pressure. Macro and cost factors, along with increasing supply and weak demand, contribute to this situation [2][37]. PP - PP: The short - term requires caution when short - selling. The trend still has pressure, but due to cost uncertainties and policy factors, low - level short - selling should be cautious [2][41]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: It will oscillate in the short term. Cost support is strong, and there are expectations for peak - season demand [2][46]. Pulp - Pulp: It is expected to oscillate. International pulp mills' price support and inventory reduction contribute to this trend [2][51]. Glass - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The futures price shows a slight increase, and the spot price in some regions has declined [2][56]. Methanol - Methanol: It will have a narrow - range oscillation. The market is supported by cost and macro factors, but the acceptance of high - price goods by downstream needs attention [2][61]. Urea - Urea: It will oscillate within a range. The short - term market is reluctant to short at the fundamental valuation support level [2][66]. Styrene - Styrene: Compress the profit. The downstream demand is weak, while pure benzene is short - term strong [2][68]. Soda Ash - Soda ash: The spot market has little change. The market is weakly oscillating, and the demand is soft [2][71]. LPG - LPG: The valuation of the futures is low, and attention should be paid to the risk of position reduction [2][75]. Propylene - Propylene: Supply - demand tightens, and the price has certain support [2][76]. PVC - PVC: It will oscillate weakly. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, with high production and inventory problems [2][84]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil: It will oscillate weakly with a narrow - range adjustment. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The night session opened slightly lower, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market slightly narrowed [2][88]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Hold 10 short positions as appropriate [2][90]. Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip - Short - fiber, Bottle chip: They will have a short - term oscillation. A position of long PF and short PR is recommended [2][32]. Offset Printing Paper - Offset printing paper: It oscillates at a low level with limited upward momentum [2][33]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene: It is de - stocking continuously and is strong in the short term [2][34].