Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: With both supply and demand booming in the producing areas, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [2]. - Soybean oil: As US soybeans are strong, soybean oil is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. - Soybean meal: Following the rise of US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate stronger [2]. - Soybean: Expected to fluctuate in a corrective manner [2]. - Corn: Expected to move in a range [2]. - Sugar: Expected to rise in a fluctuating manner [2]. - Cotton: The expected bumper harvest of new crops restricts the upward potential of futures prices [2]. - Eggs: Expected to adjust in a fluctuating manner [2]. - Hogs: Spot prices are mainly weak [2]. - Peanuts: Near - term contracts are stronger than long - term contracts [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,424 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase, and the night - session was 9,486 yuan/ton with the same increase. For soybean oil, the daily - session was 8,592 yuan/ton (+1.23%), and the night - session was 8,554 yuan/ton (- 0.44%). Rapeseed oil's daily - session was 10,069 yuan/ton (+2.72%), and the night - session was 9,976 yuan/ton (- 0.92%). Trading volume and open interest also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia raised the reference price of crude palm oil for September, increasing the export tax to 10%. Indonesia saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange through the use of palm - based biodiesel. Argentina's soybean sales and Ukraine's rapeseed and sunflower seed production forecasts changed [5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3,163 yuan/ton (+2.90%), and the night - session was 3,166 yuan/ton (+0.67%). DCE soybean 2511's daily - session was 4,107 yuan/ton (+1.83%), and the night - session was 4,080 yuan/ton (- 0.17%). Spot prices and industry data such as trading volume and inventory also had changes [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 13, CBOT soybean futures rose for the third consecutive day due to the USDA's lower - than - expected soybean production forecast [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is +1, and soybean is 0 [11]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: Corn futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and basis had corresponding changes. For example, C2509's daily - session closing price was 2,279 yuan/ton (+0.89%), and the night - session was 2,286 yuan/ton (+0.31%) [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Corn prices in different regions showed different trends, and the prices of imported sorghum and barley were also reported [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [15]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.85 cents/pound (- 0.09%), the mainstream spot price was 5,980 yuan/ton (+30), and the futures main - contract price was 5,657 yuan/ton (+49). Price spreads also had changes [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In Brazil, the sugar - cane crushing progress accelerated in the first half of July, and India's monsoon precipitation decreased. China's sugar imports in June were 420,000 tons. There are supply - demand forecasts for the domestic and international sugar markets [16][17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [19]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 14,130 yuan/ton (+1.07%), and the night - session was 14,120 yuan/ton (- 0.07%). ICE cotton futures fell slightly. Spot prices of cotton in different regions increased slightly [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading improved slightly, the cotton yarn market improved, and the US Department of Agriculture significantly lowered the production forecast of US cotton in the 2025/26 season [21][22][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [25]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads had corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [26]. Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Hog spot and futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads had corresponding changes. For example, the Henan spot price was 13,930 yuan/ton (+50) [30]. - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, and demand growth was limited. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, and the market is under pressure. There is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hog trend intensity is - 1 [31]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: Peanut spot and futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and price spreads had corresponding changes. For example, the price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton with no change [34]. - **Spot Market Focus**: New peanuts in some regions are starting to be listed, and the prices of old peanuts are mostly stable. The growth of new peanuts is good [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic spot market for lead is weakening, putting pressure on prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,930 yuan/ton, up 0.09%, and the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,016 dollars/ton, up 0.93% [1]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 28,937 lots, a decrease of 1,049 lots, and the LME lead trading volume was 5,567 lots, an increase of 1,521 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 49,424 lots, a decrease of 1,799 lots, and the LME lead open interest was 153,848 lots, an increase of 1,928 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium/discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -38.73 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.23 dollars/ton [1]. - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: The profit and loss of lead ingot spot imports was -668.04 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.37 yuan/ton; the profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous - three imports was -664.04 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.57 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventories**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 62,535 tons, an increase of 2,744 tons; the LME lead inventory was 262,225 tons, a decrease of 25 tons [1]. - **Recycled Lead**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 News - In July in China, the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [1]. - Trump said he might appoint the next Fed chair a little earlier, and the candidates were narrowed down to three or four. Bessent believes that the US interest rate should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level, and there is a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [1]. 3.3 Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View - Zinc prices are under pressure [1] - The zinc trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,600 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,848 dollars/ton, up 1.42% [1] - **Volumes**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 78,345 lots, down 1,626; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 8,564 lots, up 58 [1] - **Open Interests**: The open interest of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 85,986 lots, down 1,502; the open interest of LME Zinc was 194,301 lots, up 1,359 [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium/discount was -55 yuan/ton, down 5; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -4.76 dollars/ton, down 1.18 [1] - **Inventories**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 16,192 tons, up 424; LME zinc inventory was 78,475 tons, down 1,075 [1] News - In July in China, the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. From January to July, the cumulative increment of social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the hog market on August 14, 2025, indicating that the spot market is mainly weak [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 13,930 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50; Sichuan's is 13,550 yuan/ton with a 200 increase; Guangdong's is 15,290 yuan/ton with no change [3] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are 13,950 yuan/ton, 14,045 yuan/ton, and 14,295 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 15, - 185, and - 130 [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For hog2509, the trading volume is 9,835 lots (up 3,466 from the previous day) and the open interest is 18,627 lots (down 3,281 from the previous day); for hog2511, the trading volume is 47,508 lots (up 20,637) and the open interest is 66,230 lots (up 5,348); for hog2601, the trading volume is 18,115 lots (up 8,296) and the open interest is 45,776 lots (up 941) [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are - 20 yuan/ton, - 115 yuan/ton, and - 365 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 65, 235, and 180; the hog 9 - 11 spread is - 95 yuan/ton (up 170 year - on - year), and the hog 11 - 1 spread is - 250 yuan/ton (down 55 year - on - year) [3] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view, with the range of [-2, 2] for trend intensity and different levels of strength classification [4] Group 4: Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increases, while individual farmers are forced to hold back hogs. Demand growth is limited, leading to large market pressure. Recent daily transactions are poor, and it's difficult to absorb market supply [5] - The September contract is entering the pre - delivery month, and on the tenth trading day, it enters the second phase of position limits. The futures price is still at a significant premium to the warehouse receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. Attention should be paid to the market of premium convergence [5] - Recently, the macro sentiment has strong support for the far - end contracts, resulting in a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations. The spread structure maintains a reverse arbitrage, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5]

2025年08月14日 2025 年 8 月 14 日 黄金：关税乌龙影响价差 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：关税乌龙影响价差 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：小幅反弹 | 2 | | 铜：缺乏明显驱动，价格震荡 | 4 | | 锌：价格承压 | 6 | | 铅：国内现货走弱，价格承压 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：矿端支撑逻辑削弱，冶炼端逻辑限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：多空博弈加剧，钢价震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 白银：小幅反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金 ...

Report Title - New Crop's High-Yield Expectation Limits the Increase of Cotton Futures Price [1] Core View - The new crop's high-yield expectation restricts the increase of cotton futures prices. The cotton market shows a complex situation with different trends in various aspects such as futures prices, spot trading, and market demand [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Cotton Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: CF2601 closed at 14,130 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.07% and a night - session closing price of 14,120 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% change; CY2511 closed at 20,195 yuan/ton with a 0.90% daily increase and a night - session closing price of 20,185 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% change; ICE Cotton 12 closed at 67.7 cents/pound with a - 1.08% daily change [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 645,549 lots, an increase of 329,664 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 784,336 lots, an increase of 34,927 lots; the trading volume of CY2511 was 10,265 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 19,810 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,006, a decrease of 81, and the effective forecast was 281, a decrease of 1; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 74, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, with an increase of 74 [2] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,142 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a 0.66% increase; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase; the 3128B index was 15,188 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase; the international cotton index M was 75.93 cents/pound, an increase of 2 cents/pound with a 2.21% increase [2] - **Price Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News Domestic Cotton Spot Situation - The spot trading of cotton slightly improved, but the improvement was limited. Spinning mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases, and the spot basis was generally stable. Different regions had different basis ranges for cotton sales [2][3] Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises' Situation - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market slightly improved, with increased sales. Spinning mills raised their quotes, and the price center of cotton yarn slightly increased. The all - cotton grey fabric market was partially better, but the overall improvement was limited, with only small orders being traded. Downstream inquiries and orders recovered moderately. Dyeing mills' orders were average, and some expected an improvement in September orders. The loom factory's operating rate recovered to a limited extent, and the inventory level remained high but showed a downward trend [2][3] US Cotton Situation - The ICE cotton futures slightly declined yesterday. After two consecutive days of increases, ICE cotton had a technical adjustment. However, the significant downward adjustment of the 2025/26 US cotton production forecast in the USDA's August supply - demand report is expected to support the ICE cotton futures [2][4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral situation. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On August 13, all the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. IF increased by 0.97%, IH by 0.33%, IC by 1.57%, and IM by 1.63% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 23,189 lots, IH by 9,330 lots, IC by 27,828 lots, and IM by 55,257 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 10,150 lots, IH by 6,610 lots, IC by 11,324 lots, and IM by 32,273 lots [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On August 13, the closing prices of various stock index futures and their underlying indexes showed different increases. For example, the CSI 300 index closed at 4,176.58, up 0.79%; IF2508 closed at 4,181.2, up 0.97% [1] - **Basis**: Different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM had different basis values. For example, the basis of IF2508 was 4.62, and that of IF2509 was -5.78 [1] - **Trading Volume and Turnover**: The trading volume and turnover of each contract also varied. For example, the turnover of IF2509 was 929.2 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 74,450 lots [1] - **Position Changes**: The positions of each contract changed. For example, the position of IF2508 decreased by 5,986 lots, while that of IF2509 increased by 11,069 lots [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] 3. Important Drivers - The central bank announced that at the end of July, China's broad - money (M2) balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; narrow - money (M1) balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6%; currency in circulation (M0) balance was 13.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.8%. In the first seven months, the net cash injection was 465.1 billion yuan. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.62%. The A - share trading volume throughout the day was 2.18 trillion yuan, reaching the second - highest level this year. The market volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index had an eight - day consecutive increase [6] 4. Positions of the Top 20 Members in Futures - The positions of the top 20 members in different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed. For example, in IF2508, the long positions decreased by 4,663 lots, and the short positions decreased by 4,513 lots [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The manganese - silicon sector shows weak sentiment and wide - range fluctuations [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of silicon iron 2509, 2510, manganese silicon 2509, and 2510 are 5794, 5778, 6074, and 6086 respectively, with changes of - 26, - 34, - 36, and - 38 compared to the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 232,143, 72,155, 314,200, and 52,038, and the open interests are 88,820, 59,932, 193,064, and 49,237 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia, manganese ore Mn44 block, and semi - coke small materials in Shenmu are 5450 yuan/ton, 5800 yuan/ton, 40.3 yuan/ton - degree, and 620 yuan/ton respectively. The manganese ore price dropped by 0.2 yuan/ton - degree compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The silicon iron spot - futures price difference (spot - 09 futures) is - 344 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton; the manganese silicon spot - futures price difference (spot - 09 futures) is - 274 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton [1]. Trend Intensity - **Price Difference Data**: The price differences of silicon iron 2509 - 2601, manganese silicon 2509 - 2601, manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509, and manganese silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 are - 17022 yuan/ton, - 888 yuan/ton, 280 - 10 yuan/ton, and 1984 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Trend Strength Index**: The trend strength of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]. Macro and Industry News - **Product Price News**: On August 13, the prices of silicon iron 72 in different regions range from 5400 - 5600 yuan/ton, and 75 from 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 silicon iron are 1030 - 1050 and 1100 - 1120 US dollars/ton respectively. The northern and southern quotes of silicon manganese 6517 are 5850 - 5950 and 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Procurement News**: Hebei Steel finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon iron in August at 6030 yuan/ton, a 430 - yuan/ton increase from July, with a quantity of 2835 tons, a 135 - ton increase from July [2].

黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z008016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BZ2603 | 6237 | 6250 | -13 | BZ2603-EB2508 | -1085 | -1072 | -13 | | BZ2604 | 6204 | 6200 | 4 | BZ2603-EB2509 | -1060 | -1072 | 12 | | BZ2605 | 6222 | 6242 | -20 | BZ2603-EB2603 | -1169 | -1183 | 14 | | BZ2603-BZ2604 | 33 | 50 | -17 | BZ2604-EB2604 | -1212 | -1241 | 29 | | BZ2604-BZ2605 | -18 | -42 | 24 | 山东纯苯价格 | 6245 | 6200 | 45 | | 纸货价格：N+1 | 6165 | 6170 | -5 | 山东纯苯价格-加氢苯价格 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core View The asphalt market shows signs of weakness, with a downward trend in prices and a recent decrease in shipments. However, there has been a slight increase in the capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt and modified asphalt enterprises. The market is influenced by factors such as crude oil prices, regional demand, and refinery production schedules [1][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures prices**: On August 13, 2025, BU2509 closed at 3,534 yuan/ton, down 0.14%, and the night - session closed at 3,512 yuan/ton, down 0.62%; BU2510 closed at 3,503 yuan/ton, down 0.09%, and the night - session closed at 3,471 yuan/ton, down 0.91% [1]. - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume of BU2509 was 12,434 lots, a decrease of 4,801 lots, and the open interest was 41,183 lots, a decrease of 3,171 lots. The trading volume of BU2510 was 123,189 lots, an increase of 2,907 lots, and the open interest was 224,999 lots, an increase of 1,869 lots [1]. - **Warehouse receipts**: The total market warehouse receipts of asphalt were 73,750 lots, with no change [1]. - **Spreads**: The basis (Shandong - 09) was 106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the 09 - 10 inter - period spread was 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the Shandong - South China spread was 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the East China - South China spread remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot prices**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,730 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - **Refinery indicators**: As of August 7, the refinery operating rate was 34.33%, a decrease of 0.07%, and the refinery inventory rate was 25.54%, a decrease of 0.20% [1]. 3.2 Trend Strength The asphalt trend strength is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [10]. 3.3 Market Information - **Shipment volume**: From August 6 - 12, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 40.2 tons, a decrease of 3.8% compared to the previous period. The shipment volume decreased significantly in the Northeast and East China regions [16]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: From August 7 - 13, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 32.9%, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous period. From August 6 - 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 17.1%, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous period and an increase of 3.8% year - on - year [16].