2025年10月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：短期震荡市，反套持有 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：短期震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：1-5反套持有 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 6 | | 沥青：跟随原油弱势震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：趋势偏弱 | 10 | | PP：趋势仍偏弱 | 11 | | 烧碱：远月估值受压制 | 12 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 17 | | 尿素：弱势运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期继续负反馈 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：盘面估值修复，宏观风险仍存 | 23 | | 丙烯：供需偏宽松，短期弱势震荡 | 23 | | PVC：趋势偏弱 | 26 | | 燃料油：夜盘小幅下跌，短期弱势仍在 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：继续弱于高硫，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时平稳 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：短线偏强 | 28 | | 短纤：低位震荡，下方空间不大 | ...

2025年10月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：现货偏紧，偏强震荡预计延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：仓单短期去化 | 6 | | 多晶硅：情绪回落 | 6 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 21 日 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 1）9 月 12 日钢联资讯：因违反林业许可证规定，印尼林业工作组接管 PT WedaBav Nickel 超过 148 公顷矿区。印尼政府将负责管理该区域，并对该公司处以罚款。该矿区位于北马鲁古省哈马黑拉岛，今年 已通过的 RKAB 镍矿批复量级达 4200 万湿吨，其中包括 1000 万吨湿法矿，总矿区占地 4.7 万公顷，包含 15 个矿点，印尼林业工作组接管区域占总矿区面积 0.3%，预计影响镍矿产量约 600 金属吨/月。 2）据外媒报道，中国暂停了一项针对从俄罗斯进口的铜和镍的非官方补贴。 3）根据钢 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 20, a series of important economic data were released. China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the first three quarters. Although there are favorable conditions to achieve the annual target, there are also short - board issues such as slowdown in consumer spending growth, continued decline in real estate prices and volume, and further expansion of the decline in fixed - asset investment. It is expected that the possibility of introducing specific stimulus policies in 2025 is relatively small [6]. - For pure benzene, the fundamental drive is still downward, but the valuation is low. Short - term sanctions affect supply in central China, but overall supply is rising. Port inventories are decreasing smoothly in October, but the actual inventory is moderately high. The downstream demand for styrene is in a negative feedback channel, and short - term short positions should pay attention to taking profits [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Data Analysis - GDP: China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the first three quarters [6]. - Consumption: In September, China's social consumer goods retail sales grew 3% year - on - year, and the catering revenue of above - quota units declined 1.6%. The quarterly growth rate of residents' consumption expenditure slowed down significantly [6]. - Industry: In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew 6.5% year - on - year, with better growth in equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing [6]. - Investment: From January to September, China's national fixed - asset investment decreased 0.5% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased 13.9% year - on - year [6]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold: Continues to hit new highs, with a trend strength of 1 [11][17]. - Silver: The spot contradiction is alleviated, and the price rises and then falls, with a trend strength of - 1 [11][17]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - Copper: The reduction in warehouse receipts and inventory supports the price, with a trend strength of 1 [11][21]. - Zinc: Shows a slight rebound, with a trend strength of 0 [11][24]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory supports the price, with a trend strength of 0 [11][26]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts, with a trend strength of 0 [11][31]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina continues to be in surplus, with a trend strength of - 1. Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [11][33]. 3.2.3 Energy Metals - Nickel: Narrowly fluctuates in the short - term, and contradictions are still accumulating, with a trend strength of 0 [11][36]. - Stainless steel: There is no upward driving force in supply and demand, and cost limits the downward space, with a trend strength of 0 [11][36]. - Carbonate lithium: The spot is in short supply, and the strong - side oscillation is expected to continue, with a trend strength of 1 [11][40]. 3.2.4 Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts are removed in the short - term, with a trend strength of 1 [11][44]. - Polysilicon: Market sentiment declines, with a trend strength of 0 [11][44]. 3.2.5 Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][48]. - Rebar: Fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][54]. - Hot - rolled coil: Fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][54]. - Ferrosilicon: Cost provides bottom support, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][59]. - Silicomanganese: Cost provides bottom support, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][59]. 3.2.6 Energy Chemicals - Coke: Expectations are volatile, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][63]. - Coking coal: Expectations are volatile, and it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0 [11][63]. 3.2.7 Others - Logs: Fluctuate repeatedly [14][64]. - Pure benzene: Fluctuates mainly in the short - term [14][63].

贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6268 | 4384 | 4003 | 6028 | 435.8 | | 涨跌 | -24 | -18 | 0 | -8 | 0.8 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.38% | -0.41% | 0.00% | -0.13% | 0.18% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -44 | -68 | -87 | -16 | -2.7 | | 前日收盘价 | -28 | -58 | -82 | -12 | -2.4 | | 涨跌 | -16 | -10 | -5 | -4 | -0.3 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华东（元/吨） | MEG 现货 | 石脑油 MOPJ | Dated 布伦特 (美 | | | 金/吨） | | ...

2025年10月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库偏慢，关注棕油下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆偏强，或跟随反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：偏强震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花：延续反弹势头 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：弱势震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：二育入场积极 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 21 日 棕榈油：产地去库偏慢，关注棕油下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日盘） 9,318 | 涨跌幅 0.11% | 收盘价（夜盘） 9,294 | 涨跌幅 -0.26% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 ...

| 2025/10/20 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 李先飞 | 刘雨萱 | 王蓉 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | 色及责金属组 | 王宗源(联系人) | 张再宇 | F03142619 | Z0021479 | | | | | | | | | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 今天 | 前一交易日 | 上月 | 上周 | | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/9/12 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/13 | 沪金主力收盘价(元/克) | 970 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 21 日 原油：驱动偏弱，继续观望 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI11 月原油期货收跌 0.02 美元/桶，跌幅 0.03%，报 57.52 美元/桶；布伦特 12 月原油期货 收跌 0.28 美元/桶，跌幅 0.46%，报 61.01 美元/桶；SC2512 原油期货收跌 0.70 元/桶，跌幅 0.16%， 报 438.40 元/桶。 1、墨西哥湾原油套利 | 原油品种 | 套利价值 (美元/桶) | 状态 | 市场情况描述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Arab Extra Light | -5.65 | 关闭 | 经济性不佳：沙特轻质原油运往 USGC 的成本过高，或 WTI MEH 在当地价格 | | | | | 相对强势，导致进口无利可图。 | | | | | 缺乏竞争力：与 Extra Light 情况类 | | Arab Light | -6.04 | 关闭 | 似，其官方售价（OSP）和运费成本使 | | | | | 其难以与本地基准竞争。 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to be gradually implemented in three steps: the core content will be announced on October 23, 2025; the full text of the Party's "15th Five - Year Plan Outline Suggestions" will be released in the following days; the full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan Outline" will be officially released after being approved by the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress in March 2026. The plan will inherit and innovate on previous goals, especially in key areas such as economic growth, technological innovation, and institutional reform [1]. - Five - year plans have a profound impact on the macro - underlying logic, economic context, and capital markets. They often lead to significant stock market rallies and clearly define core investment tracks. They also affect the supply and demand of commodities, thereby influencing prices [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 "15th Five - Year Plan" Later Implementation Process and Main Nodes - The implementation process will follow three steps: on October 23, 2025, the "Fourth Plenary Session" will release a communiqué with the core content of the "15th Five - Year Plan"; in the following days, the Party's "15th Five - Year Plan Suggestions" will be released, along with an explanation by the General Secretary; the State Council will compile the final version of the plan based on the Party's suggestions and submit it to the National People's Congress for approval in March 2026 [1][6]. 3.2 Five - Year Plan Document Framework Content Overview - The "Five - Year Plan Outline" includes a general introduction (covering economic situation judgment, guiding ideology, principles, and goals), specific area discussions (detailing key tasks in various fields), and a conclusion (emphasizing Party leadership, implementation, and guarantee mechanisms). Quantitative indicators in previous plans mainly cover five areas: economic development, people's well - being, ecological environment, innovation drive, and security [10]. 3.3 "15th Five - Year Plan" Key Content Outlook 3.3.1 Economic Growth Target Setting - Long - term growth targets require China to reach the level of a high - income country by the end of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and double its economic aggregate or per - capita income by 2035. As of 2024, China's per - capita GDP was $13,300. To reach the minimum threshold of a moderately developed country ($24,000) by 2035, the average nominal growth rate from 2026 - 2035 should be no less than 5.6% (assuming a 4.5% nominal growth rate in 2025). The actual GDP growth rate from 2026 - 2035 should be around 4%. Market expectations suggest setting a target of around 5% in 2026 and gradually reducing it to 4.8% [17][18][23]. 3.3.2 Key Work Task Deployment - The "15th Five - Year Plan" will continue to focus on economic, institutional, industrial, innovation, people's well - being, and ecological fields. Key areas include institutional reform, technological innovation, domestic demand expansion, green development, and industrial chain security. New quality productivity development is expected to accelerate, and the plan will also address issues such as effective demand shortage and international competition [24][29][30]. 3.4 Five - Year Plan's Market Impact 3.4.1 Five - Year Plans as Investment Mainlines - Five - year plans reshape the economic underlying logic, clarify development priorities, and provide clear investment tracks for the capital market. Different periods have seen different industries thrive, such as traditional cyclical industries during the "11th Five - Year Plan" and technology industries during the "12th" and "13th Five - Year Plans" [33]. 3.4.2 Stock Market Impact - Historically, stock markets have often rallied around the release of five - year plans. Currently, the technology - growth sector has outperformed the market, with some sub - themes like optical modules and AI computing power showing significant excess returns. If the "15th Five - Year Plan" has unexpected content, it will create short - term trading opportunities and support medium - term technology and reform - related investments [35][37]. 3.4.3 Commodity Market Impact - Five - year plans affect commodity supply and demand through national economic logic, industrial policies, and resource security strategies. They have led to a shift in demand from traditional commodities like steel and cement to manufacturing and new - energy - related metals. Supply - side reforms and national policies also influence commodity prices [40].

◼ 海运业首个履约年度碳账单约 24 亿欧元 2024 年，海运业在 EU ETS 覆盖范围内的经核查排放量为 0.9 亿吨，海运业首个履约年度的碳账单约 为 24 亿欧元。预计 2025 年海运业碳账单或达到 42 亿欧元；2026 年，EU ETS 对海运业温室气体覆盖范围 进一步扩展至甲烷和一氧化二氮，估算其对应的碳成本可能升至 62 亿欧元。 ◼ 集运碳成本对运费的影响权重日渐增加 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 20 日 集运碳成本更新：基于 2024 年排放数据的影 响重估——绿色金融联合研究（五） 唐惠珽 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021216 tanghuiting@gtht.com 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 报告导读： ◼ EU ETS 影响全球 13%的船舶、49%的集装箱运力 2024 年，实际受 EU ETS 管制的船舶数量约占全球船舶总量的 13%，其碳排放约占全球船舶碳排放总 量的 17%。近五成的全球集装箱运力在 EU ETS 的管辖范围内。 基于 THETIS-MRV 公布的 2024 年最新排放数据，本 ...

2025年10月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 | 2 | | 铜：市场谨慎，价格震荡 | 4 | | 锌：偏弱运行 | 6 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 9 | | 铝：考验21000关口 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 13 | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 20 日 黄金：继续创新高 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...