| 硅铁：商品情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | | --- | 锰硅：商品情绪共振，宽幅震荡 2026 年 2 月 2 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1、财联社：【两部门】将通过容量电价回收煤电机组固定成本的比例提升至不低于 50%，完善电力市 场交易和价格机制 鼓励供需双方在中长期合同中签订随市场供需、发电成本变化的灵活价格机制。 2、铁合金在线：1 月 30 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5200-5300，宁夏 5300-5400（+25），青海 5250-5300 （+25），甘肃 5250-5300（+25），内蒙 5300-5350（+50）；75#硅铁：陕西 5850-5900，宁夏 5700- 5800，青海 5700-5800，甘肃 5650-5700，内蒙 5800-585 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is neutral, with a price range of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, affected by macro - sentiment, tin prices may still have a certain downward risk due to the overall influence of the non - ferrous sector, and tin prices are generally highly elastic. However, the tight fundamental situation has not significantly reversed. If the sharp decline further expands the safety margin, tin prices may have a repair and rebound market. There are significant differences in short - term unilateral views, and it is recommended to use option tools for protection [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount is - 227 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium is 0 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums remain flat [10][15] 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin inter - month structure maintains a C structure [19] 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, domestic social inventory increased by 165 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 58 tons. LME inventory increased, and the cancelled warrant ratio dropped to 3.74% [27][32] 3.1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the funds precipitated in Shanghai tin are 391,560 million yuan, and the funds have flowed out in the past 10 days [36] 3.1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume of Shanghai tin increased, and the position decreased. The trading volume and position of LME tin increased [39][45] 3.1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin declined [51] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In October 2025, the output of tin concentrates was 5,972 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.48%. In December 2025, imports were 17,637 tons, a year - on - year increase of 119.37%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 14.55%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 14,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan remained at 10,000 yuan/ton. The import profit - and - loss level rebounded [55][57] 3.2.2 Smelting - In January 2026, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 69.34%, a slight decline from last week [62][64] 3.2.3 Import - In December 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 1,558 tons, exports were 2,763 tons, and the net export was 1,215 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 636 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 10,538 yuan/ton [74] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption - In December 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 14,735 tons, and the actual consumption was 14,040 tons [82] 3.3.2 Tin Materials - This week, the downstream processing fee declined slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in December dropped to 72.7%. The output and sales of major tinplate enterprises in October increased slightly [84] 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In December 2025, the output of end - user products performed well. The monthly output of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners all increased. The household appliance consumption rebounded month - on - month, while the automobile consumption declined month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased [91][93][99]

国泰君安期货·君研海外 境外权益（港美股）周度策略报告 国泰君安期货研究所· 海外研究 戴璐 Z0021475 联系人 杨藤 F03151619 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 美股：本周微软大跌，市场在寻求盈利与Capex间更直接的联系 微软/甲骨文代表的软件公司与费城半导体（硬件）的差距进一步拉大 标普500成分股近1/3披露财报，美股各板块25Q4财报业绩仍然强劲 | 屯围 本期 | CQ4 结束: 11/16/2025 - 2/15/2026 V 周期 季度 | P | | --- | --- | --- | | &P 500 INDEX | | | | 意外 農民 | | | | 分类(BICS) | 营业收入意外 盈利意外 | 申报 | | #13 全部证券 | 165 / 500 1.43% 9.35% | | | 12) > 材料 | 0.63% 0.31% | 10 / 27 | | 13) > 工业 | 2.37% 31.01% | 37 / 74 | | 14 > 必 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年1月29日，中国纸浆高栏港库存4.5万吨，较上周上涨0.3万吨，环比上涨7.1%。本周期高栏港库存呈现累库的趋势。 4.【中国纸浆主流港口样本库存周数据统计】截至2026年1月29日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量：216.9万吨，较上期累库10.1万吨，环比上涨4.9%，库存量在本 周期继续呈累库的走势，港口样本库存连续四周呈现累库的走势。本周期纸浆国内主流港口青岛港库存维持累库的走势，港内日均出货速度较上周期变动不大。本 周期常熟港库存呈现累库的走势，港 ...

CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【2025年欧盟乘用车销量增长1.8%至1082万辆】根据欧洲汽车制造商协会（ACEA）最新公布的数据显示，2025年12月欧盟乘用车销量同比增长5.8%至 963,319辆。2025年，欧盟乘用车销量小幅增长0.8%至约1060万辆。然而，总体销量仍远低于疫情前水平。2025年，欧盟纯电动汽车市场份额达到17.4%， 较前一年的13.6%有所增长，与年度预期相符，但仍有增长空间，以跟上转型步伐。混合动力汽车是消费者最青睐的动力类型，占比达到34.5%，仍然是欧 盟消费者的首选。其中插电式混合动力汽车的市场地位日益巩固。与此同时，汽油和柴油车的合计市场份额下降至35.5%，低于2024年的45.2%。 国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：202 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 综述：高位回落 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年02月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 供应 • 周期内茂名石化高顺顺丁装置重启，华北地区个别顺丁橡胶装置略有降负，总体产能利用率仅窄幅波动。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在3.07万吨，较上周期 增加0.0104万吨，环比+0.34%，产能利用率76.38%，环比0.27个百分点。周期内茂名石化顺丁橡胶装置投料重启，浩普新材料、振华新材料及山东益华顺 丁橡胶装置负荷略有下降。下周期暂无新装置重启或停车检修消息，但仍需谨慎观望民营顺丁橡胶装置负荷情况。（隆众资讯） 需求 • 刚需方面，周期内部分半钢胎样本企业受外贸订单支撑，装置排产稍有提升，对半钢胎样本企业产能利用率形成支撑；全钢胎出货表现平淡，部分企业 仍存控产现象，拖拽产能利用率微跌。预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率将有所下滑。近期多种原料价格高位运行，成本压力下，部分样本企业在1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, methanol is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with limited upside and downside potential [2][4]. - Macro - level factors include Trump's agreement information reducing the probability of geopolitical conflicts, and the nomination of Wash as Fed Chair causing a decline in precious metals and a weak overall macro - sentiment. However, strong international energy prices support the downside of methanol [4]. - Fundamentally, the short - term supply - demand pattern of methanol is weak, and high port inventories suppress the upside of prices [4]. - In terms of valuation, the MTO fundamentals are weak, and the production profit is continuously compressed. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is a strong fundamental resistance level. The cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan provides support for the lower valuation of methanol [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary (Supply, Demand, Inventory) Supply - From January 23 - 29, 2026, China's methanol production was 2,037,735 tons, an increase of 28,820 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 91.21%, a 1.43% week - on - week increase. Next week, production is expected to be about 2.0771 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be about 92.98%, higher than the current level [4]. Demand - Olefins: The operating rate of the MTO industry increased slightly as the load of Ningbo Fude's MTO plant increased [4]. - Traditional downstream: For dimethyl ether, the Xinxiang Xinlianxin plant is expected to shut down next week, reducing supply and potentially lowering the overall capacity utilization rate. For glacial acetic acid, there are no planned maintenance activities next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, plants such as Xinxing Chemical and Gushi Huanyu are expected to shut down for maintenance, and plants like Shandong Lianyi may continue to reduce their loads, so supply is expected to decrease and the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there is no clear shutdown plan for the next period, and some plants may restart, so the domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue rising, but attention should be paid to the recovery of load - reducing plants and the impact of high liquid chlorine prices on production facilities [4]. Inventory - As of 11:30 on January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 424,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons from the previous period, a 3.24% week - on - week decrease; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 265,700 tons, an increase of 27,400 tons from the previous period, an 11.50% week - on - week increase [4]. - As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1.4721 million tons, an increase of 14,600 tons from the previous period, a 1.00% week - on - week increase. Port inventories continued to accumulate, mainly in East China. 191,400 tons of foreign vessels were unloaded in East China during the period. In Jiangsu's main storage areas along the Yangtze River,提货 decreased, and although an olefin plant in Zhejiang restarted, inventories still accumulated due to the supply of foreign vessels. In South China, only a small amount of domestic trade replenishment was available in Guangdong, and the main storage areas'提货 decreased. Since there was no supply from foreign vessels, inventories decreased. In Fujian, there was no unloading during the week, and inventories also decreased [4]. 3.2 Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts showing the trends of basis, monthly spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences of methanol from 2020 - 2026 [7][8][9][12][16][20] 3.3 Supply - The report shows the trends of methanol production, capacity utilization rates by region and process, import - related data (import volume, cost, arrival volume, and profit), production costs, and production profits from 2018 - 2026 [25][27][35][39][42] 3.4 Demand - The report shows the trends of capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (such as MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, etc.), production profits of downstream industries, and procurement volumes and inventories of downstream industries from 2018 - 2026 [47][55][63][73] 3.5 Inventory - The report shows the trends of methanol factory inventories (by region) and port inventories (by region) from 2018 - 2026 [78][83] 3.6 Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term high - level fluctuations, with resistance at 2350 - 2400 yuan/ton for the 05 contract and support at 2150 - 2180 yuan/ton [4]. - Inter - period: The 5 - 9 monthly spread may show a positive spread pattern [4]. - Inter - variety: The spread between MA and PP is in a fluctuating pattern [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: February 1, 2026 - Analyst: Liang Kefang - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019111 [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - High-sulfur fuel oil's strong performance continues, and in the short term, prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. The number of global CDU maintenance has increased slightly. Although Middle Eastern exports continue to rise, they have not flowed into Singapore and Malaysia in the short term, and Singapore's imports have not significantly increased. Geopolitical conflicts in Iran remain uncertain, causing market concerns about unexpected supply disruptions. High-sulfur prices will remain high unless there is a significant increase in Singapore's imports [4]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, despite the复产 of the Al Zour refinery and the gradual increase in Japanese exports, there are still some positive factors. Brazilian exports have declined due to refinery maintenance, and European refineries are expected to process more heavy components, limiting low-sulfur exports. In the short term, low-sulfur fuel oil prices have support and are unlikely to weaken significantly [4]. - Valuation: FU is expected to range from 2,850 to 2,950, and LU from 3,200 to 3,400 [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices are in a high-volatility environment, and there is potential for further price increases. 2) Inter-period: The contango structure of FU and LU has reversed to backwardation and may return to contango after geopolitical issues subside. 3) Inter-variety: The crack spreads of FU and LU have rebounded slightly, and the LU-FU spread will continue to narrow in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operations**: The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, including overall, independent, and major refineries, from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global hydrocracking, FCC, coking, and CDU units from 2018 - 2026 are provided, showing the trends and fluctuations in refinery maintenance [8][9][12]. - **Domestic Refinery Production and Commodity Volume**: Data on China's fuel oil production, low-sulfur fuel oil production, and domestic fuel oil commodity volume from 2018 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the production capacity and market supply of domestic refineries [14]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data**: The report shows data on China's marine fuel oil consumption, Singapore's fuel oil sales, and China's fuel oil apparent consumption from 2018 - 2025, reflecting the demand situation in the fuel oil market [18]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the spot inventory of fuel oil in Singapore, European ARA, Fujairah, and the United States from 2018 - 2026 are presented, showing the inventory levels and trends in different regions [21][22]. 3.4 Price and Spreads - **Spot FOB Prices in Asia-Pacific**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore and Fujairah from 2018 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the price trends in the Asia-Pacific fuel oil market [27][29]. - **Spot FOB Prices in Europe**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2026 are presented, showing the price trends in the European fuel oil market [31]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Prices in the United States**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high-sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, and the price of low-sulfur straight-run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the price trends in the US fuel oil market [32]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the prices of high-sulfur and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore from 2024 - 2026, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2026, are presented, showing the price trends in the paper and derivative markets [33][36][39]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: Data on the high-low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the spread relationships in the fuel oil spot market [41][43]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: Data on the crack spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2026 are presented, showing the crack spread relationships in the global fuel oil market [44]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads**: Data on the month spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the month spread relationships in the global fuel oil paper market [47]. 3.5 Imports and Exports - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on China's fuel oil import and export volumes from 2018 - 2025 are presented, showing the domestic fuel oil import and export situation [51][52]. - **Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global high-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions from 2018 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the global high-sulfur fuel oil import and export situation [54][56]. - **Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global low-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions from 2018 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the global low-sulfur fuel oil import and export situation [59][60]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Spreads - **Review and Logic**: The report reviews the significant increase in Asia-Pacific fuel oil prices during the week, with the Zhoushan market moving in tandem. In terms of spreads, the narrowing of the high-sulfur domestic and foreign spot price spreads and the widening of the LU domestic and foreign price spreads are analyzed [64]. - **Spot Market Spreads**: Data on the domestic and foreign spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil spot prices from 2021 - 2026 are presented, showing the spread trends in the spot market [68][69]. - **Futures Market Spreads**: Data on the domestic and foreign spreads of FU and LU futures prices from 2021 - 2026 are presented, showing the spread trends in the futures market [71][73]. 3.7 FU and LU Positions, Volumes, and Warehouse Receipts - **Positions and Volumes**: Data on the trading volumes and positions of FU and LU futures contracts from 2020 - 2026 are presented, showing the trading activity and market participation in the fuel oil futures market [76][78][80]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the warehouse receipt quantities of FU and LU from 2020 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the inventory and delivery pressure in the fuel oil futures market [87][88].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 上游观点汇总 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：高位震荡，控制仓位 供应 短纤工厂开始集中检修，平均负荷降低至85.3%，低熔点及中空短纤方面减停力度较大，棉型相对较小。 需求 终端开工率加速下行，以农历时间对比略早于往年。在原料快速上涨过程中，纱线、坯布价格跟涨不及，下游一方面担心年后价格上涨，另一 方面受制于利润，小幅补年前的库存为主。纱线、坯布环节的成品库存下降。出口订单环比好转，主要由于当前至美国的关税较东南亚无显著 劣势。短纤库存低位， ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年1月29日，中国纸浆常熟港库存62.5万吨，较上周期上涨6.6万吨，环比上涨11.8%。本周常熟港库存呈现累库走势。 2.【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年1月29日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存139万吨，较上周上涨2.2万吨，环比上涨1.6%。本周期青岛港库存周期内呈 现累库的走势。 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2026年1月29日，中国纸浆高栏港库存4.5万吨，较上周上涨0.3万吨，环比上涨7.1%。本周期高栏港库存呈现累库的趋势。 4.【 ...