1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upstream production cut of industrial silicon has disrupted the market, causing the futures price to rebound, while the polysilicon market is affected by news [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of Si2605 is 8,845 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 391,114 lots and an open interest of 235,167 lots. The closing price of PS2605 is 50,505 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 12,235 lots and an open interest of 44,571 lots [1] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon has different spot premiums or discounts against different benchmarks, while polysilicon's spot premium against N - type re - feed is +5150 yuan/ton [1] - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon N - type re - feed is 55000 yuan/ton [1] - **Profit**: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 silicon plants is - 2526.5 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new - standard 553 silicon plants is - 5749 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit is 10.4 yuan/kg, DMC enterprise profit is 1830 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is - 130 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory is 55.5 million tons, enterprise inventory is 20.8 million tons, and industry inventory is 76.3 million tons. Polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 32.1 million tons [1] - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions are provided. For example, Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1475 yuan/ton [1] - **Polysilicon (Photovoltaic)**: The prices of products such as silicon powder, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are given. For example, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers is 1.69 yuan/piece, and the price of TOPCon - 210mm battery cells is 0.41 yuan/watt [1] - **Organosilicon**: The price of DMC is 13900 yuan/ton [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 is 23900 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On the evening of January 16th, TCL Zhonghuan announced plans to acquire all or part of the shares of Yida New Energy, but the investment is still in the planning stage and there are uncertainties [1][3] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1, indicating a neutral view on industrial silicon and a slightly positive view on polysilicon [3]

2026 年 01 月 20 日 棕榈油：短期利空有限，关注减产兑现节奏 豆油：美豆题材不足，反弹高度受限 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价(日 盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜 盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,648 | -0.30% | 8,710 | 0.72% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,996 | -0.25% | 8,006 | 0.13% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,902 | -1.78% | 8,922 | 0.22% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,054 | 1.86% | 4,093 | 0.64% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美 分/磅 | 52.51 | -0.19% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 358,548 | -212017 | 413,122 | -1,957 | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 20 日 LLDPE：标品排产回升，现货交投转弱 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6667 | -0.42% | 468196 | 13977 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 基差月差变化 | 05合约基差 | -67 | | -95 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -24 | | -28 | | | | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | 重要现货价格 | 华 北 | 6600 | | 6600 | | | | 华 东 | 6720 | | 6720 | | | | 华 南 | 6800 | | 6800 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【现货消息】 期货持续回调，上游低价预售及近期 ...

2026 年 01 月 20 日 合成橡胶: 短期弱势运行 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,605 114,797 | 11,815 163,121 | -210 -48324 | | | （03合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 94,184 | 95,647 | -1463 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 675,888 | 979,143 | -303256 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | 145 | -65 | 210 | | | 月差 | | BR02-BR05 （民营） | -90 | -105 | 15 | | | 顺丁价格 | | | | | | | | | 华北顺丁 华东顺丁 | （民营） | 11,450 11 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market sentiment for thermal coal is weak, and the short - term price will be in a weak adjustment [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - In terms of origin prices, the price of Datong Southern Suburban Thermal Coal Q5500 is 599 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous period and 59 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Ejin Horo Banner Electric Coal Q5500 in Ordos is 542 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period and 36 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Yulin Bituminous Coal Powder Q6000 is 591 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous period and 52 yuan/ton from the same period last year [1] - For port prices, the price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 693 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous period and 65 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Q5000 is 605 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous period and 60 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Q4500 is 519 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous period and 66 yuan/ton from the same period last year [1] - Regarding overseas prices, the price of Indonesian FOB Q3800 is 49 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period and down 1 US dollar/ton from the same period last year; the price of Australian FOB Q5500 is 74 US dollars/ton, down 0.2 US dollars/ton from the previous period and 7 US dollars/ton from the same period last year [1] - In January's long - term agreement prices, the price of port Q5500 is 684 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous period and 9 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Shanxi Q5500 is 540 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous period; the price of Shaanxi Q5500 is 483 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous period; the price of Western Inner Mongolia Q5500 is 453 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous period [1] Macro and Industry News - In December 2025, the national raw coal output continued to increase month - on - month, reaching 43,703 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% and a month - on - month increase of 2.40%. The daily average output in December was 1,410 tons, 13 tons less than that in November and 5.6 tons less than the same period last year. The cumulative national raw coal output in 2025 was 483,178 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% [2] - In December 2025, the national coal and lignite imports were 5,859.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.94% and a month - on - month increase of 33.01%. The over - expected performance of imported coal was mainly due to the "rush to export" phenomenon of overseas suppliers affected by Indonesia's export tariff policy adjustment and the end - of - year domestic supply tightening and the decline of domestic coal prices giving imported coal an advantage [2] - On January 8, 2026, the Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the government plans to approve about 600 million tons of coal production quota in 2026 (lower than the 2025 production target of 739.7 million tons). The expected coal production in Indonesia in 2025 was 790 million tons (lower than the 2024 coal output of 836 million tons) [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal in the northern ports) is - 1 [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market is characterized by a structural trend. On January 19, the four major index futures contracts for the current month showed mixed performance. On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. The positions of the four major index futures also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: The closing prices of various index futures showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the CSI 300 index closed at 4734.5, up 0.05%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3075.9, down 0.12%; the CSI 500 index closed at 8288, up 0.67%; and the CSI 1000 index closed at 8265.7, up 0.40% [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of different index futures and their contracts also varied. For instance, the basis of IF2602 was -1.66, and that of IH2602 was 0.46 [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each index futures contract changed. For example, the trading volume of IF2602 decreased by 5290 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1168 lots [1]. 3.2 Market Activity - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of index futures decreased. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 34310 lots, IH by 18564 lots, IC by 21181 lots, and IM by 35971 lots [2]. - **Open Interest**: The total open interest of index futures also changed. The total open interest of IF decreased by 4289 lots, IH by 1610 lots, IC increased by 6196 lots, and IM increased by 1234 lots [3]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Positions The positions of the top 20 members in different index futures contracts changed. For example, in the IF2601 contract, the long - position decreased by 1007 lots, and the short - position decreased by 724 lots [5]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.5 Important Drivers - **A - share Market**: A - shares were in a shrinking and volatile state. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.29% to 4114 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.7%, and the total trading volume of A - shares was 2.73 trillion yuan, down from 3.06 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: Hong Kong stocks opened lower and closed lower. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.05% to 26563.9 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.24%, and the total trading volume was 2256.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, down from 2550.79 billion Hong Kong dollars the previous day [7]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: In 2025, China's GDP was 1401879 billion yuan, a 5% increase compared to the previous year. The national population at the end of 2025 was 1404890000, a decrease of 3390000 from the previous year, with a natural population growth rate of - 2.41‰ [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: Aluminum, cotton [39][189] - **Negative Outlook**: PX, PTA, rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, soda ash, PVC, sugar, live pigs [84][86][94][102][159][165] - **Neutral Outlook**: Zinc, lead, tin, platinum, palladium, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, coke, coking coal, steam coal, logs, MEG, synthetic rubber, methanol, urea, styrene, LPG, propylene, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, pure benzene, palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, eggs, peanuts [29][31][36][44][50][53][56][57][62][67][71][77][84][92][115][119][120][130][137][155][157][165][172][175][178][193][201] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Global Market**: Geopolitical conflicts led by Trump have increased short - term volatility in overseas markets, with the EU considering counter - measures. Meanwhile, China's GDP data has stabilized global confidence in China, and the RMB has strengthened. Pre - holiday domestic stability and overseas volatility intensification are normal, and investors should pay attention to the uncertainty risks caused by irrational fluctuations under the linkage of various markets [8]. - **Commodity Markets** - **Caustic Soda**: High inventory and weak demand lead to downward price pressure in the near term, but long - term contracts may face cost increases and supply cuts [11][100]. - **Natural Rubber**: Overseas raw material prices are falling, and domestic inventory accumulation continues, with short - term market trends remaining weak [12]. - **Propylene**: Spot driving force is weakening, and the market is mainly affected by cost and downstream factors [13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased risk - aversion sentiment, driving up the prices of gold and silver [8]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: They are in a range - bound pattern [43][44]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: LME spot prices are strengthening, and the price is firm. Supply - side projects and geopolitical factors have an impact [24]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound pattern [27]. - **Lead**: Reduced overseas inventory supports the price [30]. - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound pattern [33]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, while alumina continues to decline [38]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Indonesian policies cause fluctuations, and nickel prices have a wide - range oscillatory pattern [46]. 3.1.3 Other Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: Downstream purchases have cooled, and the price is in a high - level oscillatory pattern [51]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Upstream production cuts have led to a rebound in the market [54]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy - **Coal**: The market sentiment for steam coal is weak, and the price is in a short - term weak adjustment [72]. - **LPG**: The downward driving force is gradually being realized [127]. - **Fuel Oil**: It has a narrow - range oscillatory pattern, and short - term fluctuations are narrowing [137]. 3.2.2 Chemicals - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: PX has a weak cost and a short - term oscillatory pattern; PTA focuses on narrowing processing fees; MEG has limited downward space [78]. - **Rubber**: It is in a weak oscillatory pattern [86]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has a short - term weak operation [90]. - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE has increased standard product production and weakening spot trading; PP has a strong cost support but weak demand [93][95]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is under pressure in the short term [98]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a weak oscillatory pattern [103]. - **Glass**: The raw sheet price is stable [108]. - **Methanol**: It is in an oscillatory operation [111]. - **Urea**: It is in an oscillatory consolidation [116]. - **Styrene**: It has a short - term oscillatory pattern [120]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change [122]. - **PVC**: It has a weak oscillatory pattern [134]. 3.3 Agricultural Products 3.3.1 Grains - **Corn**: The price has corrected [176]. 3.3.2 Oils and Fats - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil has limited short - term negatives, and soybean oil has limited rebound height [167]. 3.3.3 Others - **Sugar**: It is in a low - level consolidation [179]. - **Cotton**: It is waiting for the end of the adjustment [185]. - **Eggs**: The sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened [192]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has weakened, and the peak - season expectation has decreased [195]. - **Peanuts**: It is in an oscillatory operation [199]. 3.4 Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is in a temporary oscillatory pattern. Factors such as capacity, geopolitics, and demand affect the market [139].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment rebounds [2]. - Silver: Fluctuations in tariff expectations [2]. - Copper: LME spot prices strengthen, and the price remains firm [2]. - Zinc: Range - bound trading [2]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [2]. - Tin: Range - bound trading [2]. - Aluminum: Oscillating with a bullish bias; Alumina: Continuing to bottom - out; Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Box - shaped oscillation; Palladium: Following the range - bound trading [2]. - Nickel: Repeated statements from Indonesia disrupt sentiment, and nickel prices fluctuate widely; Stainless steel: The futures price is anchored to the contradictions at the ore end, and the rise of ferronickel supports the price center [2]. Summary by Related Categories Gold and Silver 1. Price and Trading Volume - Gold prices showed a slight decline during the day and a small increase at night. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,035.20 with a daily decline of 0.52% and a night - session closing price of 1035.98 with a 0.04% increase. Trading volume and open interest decreased compared to the previous day [4]. - Silver prices also declined during the day and rose at night. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 22713 with a daily decline of 0.41% and a night - session closing price of 23089.00 with a 1.40% increase. Trading volume and open interest decreased compared to the previous day [4]. 2. ETF and Inventory - The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1, while the holdings of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 180. Gold and silver inventories showed different trends, with Comex gold inventories decreasing by 80,956 ounces and Shanghai silver inventories increasing by 9703 kilograms [4]. 3. Spread and Exchange Rate - Gold and silver spreads and exchange rates changed. For example, the spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 remained unchanged, and the US dollar index rose by 0.28% [4]. Copper 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 101,180 with a daily increase of 0.41% and a night - session closing price of 101680 with a 0.49% increase. The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index decreased, while the open interest of the London copper 3M electronic trading decreased slightly [8]. 2. Inventory and Spread - Shanghai copper inventories decreased by 7,762 tons, and London copper inventories increased by 3,850 tons. The LME copper premium widened, and the spot - to - futures spread and other spreads also changed [8]. 3. News - China's 2025 economic report shows that high - tech manufacturing leads, and GDP growth reaches the target. Trump's remarks on Greenland and related tariff threats, as well as Chile's Codelco's plan to extend the life of the Radomiro Tomic copper mine [8][10]. Zinc 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 24450 with a daily decline of 1.21%, and the closing price of the London zinc 3M electronic trading was 3207.5 with a 3.20% decline. Trading volume decreased significantly, and open interest showed different trends [11]. 2. Premium and Inventory - The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc increased, the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased, and zinc inventories showed different trends, with Shanghai zinc inventories increasing by 224 tons and London zinc inventories decreasing by 1475 tons [11]. 3. News - China's 2025 economic achievements and the EU's plan to impose tariffs on US goods in response to Trump's tariff threats on European countries [12]. Lead 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17185 with a daily decline of 1.66%, and the closing price of the London lead 3M electronic trading was 2037.5 with a 2.81% decline. Trading volume and open interest decreased [15]. 2. Premium and Inventory - The premium of Shanghai 1 lead remained unchanged, and overseas lead inventories decreased by 2850 tons, which supported prices [15]. 3. News - China's 2025 economic data and Trump's remarks on Greenland and tariff threats [16]. Tin 1. Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 389,500 with a daily decline of 3.88% and a night - session closing price of 397,040 with a 2.58% increase. The trading volume and open interest decreased [19]. 2. Inventory and Spread - Shanghai tin inventories decreased by 141 tons, and London tin inventories increased by 505 tons. The LME tin premium increased, and the spot - to - futures spread also changed [19]. 3. News - Germany restarts electric vehicle purchase subsidies, the EU holds an emergency summit to address Trump's "island - seizure" tariffs, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate takes measures to maintain economic and financial security [19][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy 1. Price and Trading Volume - Aluminum prices oscillated with a bullish bias. The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 24090, and the trading volume and open interest showed different trends. Alumina prices continued to bottom - out, and the trading volume of the Shanghai alumina main contract decreased significantly. The price of cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum [23]. 2. Inventory and Premium - Aluminum inventories showed different trends, with domestic aluminum ingot social inventories increasing by 1.50 tons. The premium and spread of aluminum and alumina also changed [23]. 3. News - High - level political events such as the Japanese House of Representatives election and the release of the Fed's meeting minutes [25]. Platinum and Palladium 1. Price and Trading Volume - Platinum and palladium prices showed an upward trend. For example, the closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 615.10 with a 0.83% increase. Trading volume and open interest decreased [28]. 2. ETF and Inventory - The holdings of platinum and palladium ETFs decreased. NYMEX platinum inventories increased by 100 ounces, and NYMEX palladium inventories decreased by 3,888 ounces [28]. 3. Spread and Exchange Rate - Platinum and palladium spreads and exchange rates changed. The US dollar index decreased by 0.32% [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel 1. Price and Trading Volume - Nickel prices fluctuated widely. The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 142,320. Stainless steel prices also changed, with the closing price of the stainless steel main contract being 14,305. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends [32]. 2. Industry Chain Data - The prices of electrolytic nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and other products in the nickel industry chain changed, and the prices of stainless steel products also showed different trends [32]. 3. News - Indonesia's policies on nickel, such as suspending the issuance of new smelting licenses, revising the benchmark price formula, and adjusting production targets [32][33][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The集运指数（欧线）is in a temporary volatile market. Although the first quarter has marginal positive factors from the rush - shipping of photovoltaic and battery products, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season of the European line from March to April. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts, such as rolling short - selling for the 2604 contract, and treating the 2606 contract as a wide - range volatile market [10][11][13][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The 2604 contract of the集运指数（欧线）closed at 1132.2 points yesterday, down 1.77% with a reduction of 744 lots in positions; the 2606 contract closed at 1318.0 points, down 2.33% with an increase of 420 lots in positions [10]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: The average FAK in the 4th week may be around $2600/FEU. Different shipping companies and alliances have different price trends, with most showing a downward or stable - to - downward trend [14]. 3.2 Capacity Side - **Capacity Adjustment**: The shipping schedules of the AEU7 and FE4 routes at the end of January are generally delayed. The capacity statistics in the 5th week (1/26 - 2/1) increased by 2 blank sailings, and the capacity statistics in February (2/2 - 3/1) decreased by 2 blank sailings. The weekly average capacity in March was revised up from 28.4 to 29.5 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% and a month - on - month increase of 5.2% [11]. - **Capacity Distribution around Spring Festival**: The Spring Festival suspension of shipping is mainly concentrated from the end of February to the first week of March. The average capacity before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 is 30.6, 23.4, and 32.2 million TEU/week respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of - 0.1%, 9.1%, and 26.3% respectively, indicating greater capacity pressure after the festival [11]. 3.3 Geopolitical Side - The unstable situation in Iran has risen, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East may fluctuate. Maersk announced that its independently operated MECL route connecting the US East and India/Middle East will resume structural operations at the end of January and has prepared contingency plans [12]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Policy Impact**: The adjustment of export VAT rebate policies for photovoltaic and battery products may lead to 2 - 5 million TEU of transportation demand for the European line and 4 - 7 million TEU for the Europe - Mediterranean route being advanced from Q2 to Q1. The concentrated rush - shipping may occur from the end of February to March [13]. - **Loading Rate Concern**: The capacity level from February 23 to March 8 is relatively low, with an average of 20.1 million TEU/week. Attention should be paid to the loading rate during these two weeks. The probability of full - load and shipping companies announcing a GRI increase on March 1 is low, and it is difficult to change the over - capacity pattern in March [13]. 3.5 Contract Strategies - **2602 Contract**: The valuation may be around 1700 points. It is expected to have narrow - range, position - reducing fluctuations in the future [15]. - **2604 Contract**: Although there are marginal positive factors in the first quarter, the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season cannot be reversed. It can be considered for rolling short - selling in the next 1 - 2 months, with the upper pressure level in the range of 1200 - 1250 points [15]. - **2606 Contract**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend, and the trading strategy should be based on this wide - range volatility [15]. - **2610 Contract**: Short positions can be held as appropriate, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Gaza peace negotiation and the geopolitical situation in Iran [16]. 3.6 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the集运指数（欧线）is 0, indicating a neutral trend [17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Expected to experience weak oscillations [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by emergencies, raw materials drag down finished products [2][7]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: With tightened demand - side expectations, they will have wide - range oscillations [2][11]. - **Coke**: Disturbed by downstream accidents, it will oscillate at a high level [2][15]. - **Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate at a high level [2][15]. - **Steam Coal**: Market sentiment is weak, and prices will have a short - term weak adjustment [2][19]. - **Logs**: Expected to experience weak oscillations [2][21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price Movements**: The futures price closed at 794.0 yuan/ton, down 18.0 yuan/ton (-2.22%). Imported and domestic ore spot prices also declined. The basis and some spreads changed [4]. - **News**: On January 19, 2026, the central bank lowered the re - loan and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Movements**: RB2605 closed at 3,140 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.04%); HC2605 closed at 3,299 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.75%). Spot prices in various regions decreased. Some spreads changed [7]. - **News**: On January 19, an explosion occurred at Baotou Baogang Plate Mill. Steel production and inventory data for December 2025 were released, and export license management was implemented for some steel products [8][9]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide - **Price Movements**: Futures and spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide declined. There were changes in various spreads [12]. - **News**: In December 2025, China's crude steel output decreased year - on - year. Some steel companies' procurement prices for silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide were announced [13][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Movements**: JM2605 closed at 1,174.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton (0.3%); J2605 closed at 1,721 yuan/ton, up 0.2%. Spot prices were mostly stable, and some spreads changed [15]. - **News**: On January 19, the CCI metallurgical coal index was released, and the coking coal online auction had a low failure rate and rising prices [15]. Steam Coal - **Price Movements**: Domestic and overseas prices, as well as long - term agreement prices, showed a downward trend [19]. - **News**: In December 2025, China's coal production increased month - on - month, coal imports increased significantly, and Indonesia's coal production quota is expected to tighten in 2026 [20]. Logs - **Price Movements**: Futures contract prices declined, and trading volume and open interest changed. Spot prices were mostly stable [22]. - **News**: China's December 2025 RatingDog composite PMI exceeded the boom - bust line [24].