Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The supply side of lithium carbonate still faces disturbances, and wide - range fluctuations may continue [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 68,920, up 640 from T - 1, down 11,600 from T - 5, etc.; the volume was 340,670, down 181,179 from T - 1, etc.; the open interest was 216,103, down 13,265 from T - 1, etc. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 69,240, up 640 from T - 1, etc.; the volume was 337,143, down 41,645 from T - 1, etc.; the open interest was 205,868, up 10,136 from T - 1, etc. The warehouse receipt volume was 6,605, up 1,060 from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 2,430, down 1,290 from T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was - 320, unchanged from T - 1; the basis of electric carbon - industrial carbon was 2,100, unchanged from T - 1, etc. [1]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 755, down 11 from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,710, down 40 from T - 1 [1]. - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350, down 650 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,250, down 650 from T - 1; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 70,820, unchanged from T - 1, etc. [1]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 71,025 yuan/ton, down 449 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,250 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2]. - From January to June 2025, the cumulative domestic battery loading volume was 299.6GWh, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.3%. The top 10 domestic power battery manufacturers in the first half of 2025 were CATL, BYD, CALB, Gotion High - tech, EVE Energy, Sunwoda, Honeycomb Energy, Ruipu Lanjun, Zenith New Energy, and LG New Energy [2][3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, with the value range of [-2, 2] for integer values, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The industrial silicon market is in a weak pattern, and the short - term sentiment of polysilicon continues to cool down. The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a bearish view [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, the Si2509 contract's closing price was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan from T - 1. Its trading volume was 225,177 lots, a significant decrease of 185,194 lots compared to T - 1. The open interest was 194,340 lots, down 18,592 lots from T - 1. For polysilicon, the PS2509 contract's closing price was 49,200 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan from T - 1, with a trading volume of 383,215 lots (down 182,623 lots from T - 1) and an open interest of 110,762 lots (down 16,227 lots from T - 1) [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The industrial silicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 0 yuan/ton, and the cost of buying near - month and selling continuous - first was 46.7 yuan/ton. The polysilicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 195.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against different grades) and polysilicon's spot discount (against N - type re - investment material) showed various changes compared to previous periods [2]. - **Prices**: In industrial silicon, the price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 9,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1. In polysilicon, the price of N - type re - investment material was 47,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan from T - 1. Other related products in the photovoltaic industry also had price changes [2]. - **Profits**: Silicon factory profits for different regions (Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553) were negative, and polysilicon enterprise profits were - 17.2 yuan/kg, up 0.7 yuan from T - 1 [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 540,000 tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory was 229,000 tons. Both showed changes compared to previous periods [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in the industrial silicon production process had different changes [2]. Macro and Industry News - On July 31, JinkoSolar released its July 2025 investor relations activity record. By the end of this year, the production capacity of products with a power of over 640W will account for 40 - 50% of the company's total production capacity. Next year, most of the production capacity will reach the mainstream power level of 650 - 670W. The company expects to achieve a power level of about 670W for its advanced production capacity next year and 680 - 700W in the next two or three years, maintaining a 1 - 2 grade leading advantage over its main competitors [3][4].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Report author: Mao Lei [8] - Report institution: Guotai Junan Futures [9] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - Market performance last week: The overall market declined, reaching a phased high during the week and then oscillating downward. The top three sectors in terms of gains were medicine and biology, communication, and media, while the bottom three were coal, non - ferrous metals, and real estate [3] - Policy impact: The Politburo meeting announced the main economic work direction for the second half of the year. The policy on stabilizing growth weakened marginally due to the improved external environment and good economic data in the first half. In the anti - involution area, the policy on prices was diluted, causing a significant decline in related commodity futures prices and dragging down relevant stock market sectors [3] - Overseas factors: Tariff fluctuations increased. The deadline for the equal - tariff negotiation for non - Chinese countries was approaching on August 1st, and the market's interpretation of the China - related trade negotiation in Sweden was not optimistic, suppressing investors' risk appetite [3] - Market turning points: In a bull market driven by risk preference, market turning points are mainly driven by policy shifts and the fermentation of external risks. Last week's market performance basically conformed to this adjustment logic [4] - Future market outlook: After the policy meeting, the actual future direction is uncertain. There is also uncertainty regarding the Sino - US equal - tariff deadline in the middle of this month. The upward market space may be limited, and the downward space is also restricted as market sentiment remains positive [4] - Factors to watch: The release of China's economic data in July, the Fed's policy direction, and the progress of tariff negotiations [5] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Short - term strategy - Intraday trading frequency can refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [6] Trend strategy - Adopt a long - after - correction approach. The core operating ranges for the IF2508, IH2508, IC2508, and IM2508 contracts are 3909 - 4110 points, 2727 - 2853 points, 6030 - 6434 points, and 6375 - 6804 points respectively [6] Cross - variety strategy - Cautiously participate in the strategy of going long on IF (or IH) and shorting IC (or IM) [7] Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot market review - Global stock indices: Most global stock indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index rose by 0.30%, while others such as the Russian RTS, NASDAQ, and Brazil BOVESPA Index fell [11] - Major domestic indices: All major domestic indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index was an exception with a 0.30% increase. Since 2025, major domestic indices have shown varying degrees of increase [11][12][13] - Industry performance: In the CSI 300 index, the medicine sector rose by 2.17%, while sectors such as industry, materials, and optional consumption declined. In the CSI 500 index, the medicine and telecommunications sectors rose, while others such as finance and real estate declined [15] Futures market review - Futures contract performance: The IF futures contract had the largest decline and the largest amplitude last week. The trading volume and open interest of股指期货 declined [15] Index valuation - PE ratios: The PE (TTM) ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are 15.57 times, 13.5 times, 11.39 times, 30.79 times, and 41.44 times respectively [18][19] Market funds - Newly - established funds and investors: The data on newly - established equity - biased fund shares and the number of new investors in the two markets are presented [22] - Fund rates and central bank operations: The fund rate declined last week, and the central bank's net investment situation is shown [22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot market performance of live pigs is below expectations, with near - term weakness. The market pressure is high due to factors such as the limited increase in demand and the planned increase in group slaughter volume in August. The September contract is expected to be mainly weak, and the price difference structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot prices**: The spot price in Henan is 14,430 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Sichuan, it is 13,700 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Guangdong, it is 15,940 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 300 [2] - **Futures prices**: The price of the live pig 2509 contract is 14,055 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 20; the live pig 2511 contract is 13,850 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 35; the live pig 2601 contract is 14,180 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35 [2] - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 31,356 lots, an increase of 2311 from the previous day, and the open interest is 40,971 lots, a decrease of 4228 from the previous day; the live pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 24,661 lots, an increase of 7289 from the previous day, and an open interest of 51,204 lots, an increase of 583 from the previous day; the live pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 13,759 lots, a decrease of 3042 from the previous day, and an open interest of 40,395 lots, an increase of 180 from the previous day [2] - **Price differences**: The basis of the live pig 2509 contract is 375 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 120; the live pig 2511 contract basis is 580 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 135; the live pig 2601 contract basis is 250 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 65; the 9 - 11 spread is 205 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the 11 - 1 spread is - 330 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 70 [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3] 3. Market Logic - The market had a consistent expectation of price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume - reduction and price - pulling were below expectations. There is panic among retail farmers and secondary fattening groups. The market pressure is high in August, and the September contract is expected to be weak. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, presenting a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the price difference structure has switched to backwardation [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the weekly research report of Guotai Junan Futures on agricultural products dated August 3, 2025, covering palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, live pigs, and peanuts [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Palm oil may experience a short - term pullback as the macro - sentiment fades, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels. Soybean oil lacks effective drivers and should focus on the results of Sino - US negotiations. Soybean meal and soybean prices are expected to oscillate, with soybean meal affected by US soybean weather and trade, and soybean driven by technical factors. Corn should focus on the spot market. Sugar is in range - bound trading. Cotton needs to pay attention to external market sentiment. Live pigs have a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the reverse spread is confirmed. Peanuts should focus on the weather in the producing areas [2][4][8][18][22][44][76][108][126] Group 4: Palm Oil Last Week's View and Logic - The positive domestic macro - sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the lack of continuous fundamental drivers and weak demand from India made it difficult for the price to rise further. The palm oil 09 contract fell 0.29% last week [4] This Week's View and Logic - After the bearish impact of the slightly increased inventory in the MPOB June report, palm oil started to rebound. It is estimated that Malaysia will continue to accumulate inventory in July, but it is unlikely to exceed 2.2 million tons. Indonesia may face the problem of lower - than - expected production. The international oil market may see a systematic upward trend due to the reduction in US soybean oil supply. If the inventory accumulation in August - September exceeds expectations, palm oil may still have room to correct, but there is also a risk of early de - stocking due to lower - than - expected production in July - August. The soybean - palm oil spread is not likely to return to par this year, and opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels should be continuously monitored [5][7] Group 5: Soybean Oil Last Week's View and Logic - A large number of domestic soybean oil export orders reversed the weak domestic situation. The oil mills maintained a high - level of crushing and actively exported. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.6% last week [4] This Week's View and Logic - The good rainfall in the US Midwest in mid - to - late July is beneficial to the improvement of yield expectations. Before the release of the USDA August report, if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, CBOT soybeans will remain weakly volatile. If the trend of soybean oil exports continues, it is expected to drive the Chinese soybean - palm oil spread closer to the international spread. There may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and shrink the rapeseed - soybean oil spread in the future [8] Group 6: Soybean Meal and Soybean Last Week's Situation - Last week, US soybean prices fell due to good weather in the producing areas and trade concerns. Domestic soybean meal prices oscillated, and soybean prices were weak. The strength of domestic soybean meal was affected by the strength of rapeseed meal and trade - war concerns. The fundamentals of domestic soybeans changed little, and the price was affected by market sentiment and soybean price fluctuations [18] Next Week's Forecast - It is expected that the prices of domestic soybean meal and soybean will oscillate. Soybean meal may be slightly stronger due to trade - war concerns, while domestic soybeans should focus on technical fluctuations [22] Group 7: Corn Market Review - In the spot market last week, corn prices fell slightly. In the futures market, the price also declined, and the basis strengthened [44][45] Market Outlook - CBOT corn fell last week due to favorable weather in the US agricultural area. Wheat prices were stable, and corn auctions continued. The corn starch inventory decreased. The corn supply - demand balance remains tight, and the focus should be on the spot market, especially the upward momentum in North China and the de - stocking speed of warehouse receipts in the northern ports [46][49] Group 8: Sugar This Week's Market Review - Internationally, the New York raw sugar active contract price decreased by 0.49%. Domestically, the Guangxi group's spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract price both declined, and the basis of the main contract increased significantly [76][77] Next Week's Market Outlook - Internationally, it will mainly be in low - level range - bound trading. Domestically, it will also be in range - bound trading, with the internal - strong and external - weak pattern continuing [78][106] Group 9: Cotton Market Situation - ICE cotton fell last week due to good growth of US cotton, average export sales data, and a strong US dollar. Domestic cotton futures fell by more than 4% due to concerns about low - quality warehouse receipts and a cooling financial market sentiment [108] Outlook - From a fundamental perspective, the adjustment of domestic cotton futures is temporarily in place, but it needs to wait for the financial market sentiment to stabilize. It is expected to oscillate around 13,600 yuan, and attention should be paid to policy trends and downstream demand [108][124] Group 10: Live Pigs This Week's Market Review - In the spot market, pig prices were weakly operating, with a decline in the price of piglets and a slight increase in the price of live pigs. In the futures market, prices were weakly oscillating, and the basis of the LH2509 contract changed from negative to positive [126] Next Week's Market Outlook - Spot prices are expected to be weakly oscillating. In August, the supply pressure is expected to be large, and demand will be suppressed by high temperatures. The futures price of the LH2509 contract is expected to have a support level of 13,000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 14,500 yuan/ton [127][128]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the multi - empty game intensifies, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the disk margin follows macro - sentiment changes [4]. - For stainless steel, as the macro influence fades and it returns to the fundamentals, steel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Although there are some positive factors, high inventory and high supply elasticity may drag down steel prices [5]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the resumption progress of upstream factories. The market is affected by upstream resumption expectations, and the price shows a weak trend [27]. - For polysilicon, there may be a short - term correction, and it is recommended to hold positions cautiously. The market is policy - driven, and prices may return to the fundamentals in the short term [27]. - For lithium carbonate, the "sports - style anti - involution" cools down, and it is necessary to focus on the progress of mineral license approvals in Jiangxi. The price has dropped significantly, and the unilateral price will fluctuate widely before the event is clearly defined [61]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel 3.1.1 Fundamentals - **Nickel**: The influence of macro - sentiment on the fundamentals is marginal, and the fundamentals determine the elasticity. After the contradiction in the ore end fades, the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range shock judgment. The global refined nickel inventory is increasing, and the low - cost supply increment in the long - term drags down the disk. Although the inventory of the ferronickel link has decreased, the boost to nickel prices is limited [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro influence fades, and it returns to the fundamentals. In August, the production schedule has increased slightly, but the inventory is still high, and the high inventory and high supply elasticity may drag down steel prices. However, the weak upstream profit provides some cost support [5]. 3.1.2 Inventory Changes - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons. The nickel - iron inventory decreased by 10% month - on - month but increased by 56% year - on - year [6][7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The national stainless steel social total inventory decreased by 0.66% week - on - week. The raw material nickel - iron inventory decreased by 10% month - on - month but was still 56% higher year - on - year [5][8]. 3.1.3 Market News - There are multiple events such as Canada's potential suspension of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and Indonesia's plan to shorten the mining quota period [9]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.2.1 Price Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures market showed a weak shock, and the spot price declined. The SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 9,050 yuan/ton (down 450 yuan week - on - week), and the Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon price was 9,350 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan week - on - week) [27]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures market rose first and then fell. The spot market had weak transactions, and the Friday closing price was 49,200 yuan/ton [27]. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply side saw a marginal increase in weekly production. Sichuan's production increased, while Xinjiang's decreased. The overall industry inventory decreased again. The demand side had stable short - term demand from downstream polysilicon and silicone [28][29]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term weekly production continued to increase. The upstream inventory decreased, and there was speculative replenishment demand from the downstream. The demand side saw a slight increase in silicon wafer production, but the price transmission was not smooth [29][31]. 3.2.3后市 Views - **Industrial Silicon**: It is recommended to go short on rallies. The expected price range next week is 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the resumption progress of upstream factories [32][33]. - **Polysilicon**: There may be a short - term correction. The expected price range next week is 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. It is a policy - driven market, and it is recommended to be cautious when holding positions [32][33]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate 3.3.1 Price Trends - The futures contract prices of lithium carbonate decreased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 68,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11,600 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract closed at 69,240 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9,920 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased by 1,550 yuan/ton to 71,350 yuan/ton [61]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: The price of lithium concentrate decreased from 810 US dollars/ton to 755 US dollars/ton, and the hedging profit of purchased - ore decreased significantly. The weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons, a decrease of 7.31% [62]. - **Demand**: Due to the significant strengthening of the basis and end - of - month purchases, the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises increased significantly. The sales volume of new - energy passenger cars increased by 10.28% week - on - week and year - on - year [62]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased. The upstream inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,757 tons to 11,996 tons [63]. 3.3.3后市 Views - It is recommended to hold positions cautiously. The expected operating range of the futures main - contract price is 55,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to conduct arbitrage or hedging. The unilateral price will fluctuate widely before the event is clearly defined [64][65][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold**: The price was supported by strong buying after a decline, with a rebound due to disappointing US non - farm payroll data. The short - term gold - silver ratio may be in a rebound channel, and the overall gold and silver market lacks a clear trend, mainly in a range - bound pattern [7]. - **Silver**: The upward space is basically saturated, showing a relatively weak trend this week [7]. - **Copper**: Global total inventory increased, with a significant increase in LME inventory. The copper price's driving logic will shift from inventory - structure logic to fundamental logic. Although there are uncertainties in the macro - environment, there is support at the bottom. Downstream buyers are more active at low prices, and LME copper price may be weak, which is favorable for the internal - external reverse arbitrage [90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver 3.1.1 Price and Market Performance - This week, London gold rose 0.1%, and London silver fell 5.8%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 86.3 to 92.5. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.9%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.23% [7]. - Gold prices initially declined but were supported by buying. After the disappointing non - farm payroll data on Friday, gold prices rebounded significantly [7]. 3.1.2 Transaction - related Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: Most gold and silver futures contracts showed price changes, with some gold contracts rising and silver contracts falling. For example, Comex gold 2510 rose 2.32%, while Comex silver 2510 fell 3.18% [9]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of gold and silver futures contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of沪银2510 decreased by 100,557 hands, and the open interest decreased by 85,634 hands [9]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.95 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio fell to 54.7%. COMEX silver inventory increased by 6.34 million ounces to 506.66 million ounces, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 37.8% [42][44]. - **ETF Holdings**: The gold SPDR ETF inventory decreased by 4.01 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 145.51 tons [54][56]. 3.1.3 Price Spreads - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spreads**: The London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 53.36 dollars per ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 spread was - 55.9 dollars per ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 spread converged to - 0.088 dollars per ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 spread was - 0.345 dollars per ounce [14][17]. - **Domestic Spot - Futures Spreads**: The gold spot - futures spread was - 3.54 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range. The silver spot - futures spread was - 30 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [21][24]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The gold monthly spread was 6.9 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The silver monthly spread was 72 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [28][33]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Market and Fundamental Situation - **Inventory**: Global total inventory increased, with a significant increase in LME inventory. Domestic social inventory increased by 0.51 tons to 11.93 tons as of August 1, but the absolute inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period of history [90]. - **Supply**: The tight supply of copper concentrates has weakened, and the spot TC has rebounded marginally, but smelting is still in a large loss state. The refined - scrap copper price difference has narrowed, and the import of recycled copper is in a loss state, indicating a tight supply of recycled copper [90]. - **Demand**: Downstream and terminal enterprises increased raw material procurement at low prices. The copper spot premium expanded from 125 yuan per ton on July 25 to 175 yuan per ton on August 1 [90]. 3.2.2 Transaction - related Data - **Volatility**: The volatility of COMEX copper rebounded, while the volatility of copper in other markets declined [96]. - **Term Spreads**: The C - structure of Shanghai copper strengthened, and the LME copper spot discount was weak. The COMEX copper C - structure expanded [101]. - **Open Interest**: Shanghai copper open interest decreased by 27,900 hands to 482,600 hands, while the open interest of LME copper, international copper, and COMEX copper increased [102]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Long Net Positions**: The CFTC non - commercial long net positions decreased from 39,800 hands on July 22 to 37,300 hands on July 29 [108].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年08月03日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：震荡承压 | | • | 本周(20250724-0730)，中国尿素生产企业产量：135.48万吨，较上期涨0.01万吨，环比涨0.01%。周期内新增3家企业装置停车，停车企业恢复4 家（装置）企业，同时延续上周期的装置变化，本周产量小幅增加。下周，中国尿素周产量预计134-135万吨附近，较本期小幅减少。下个周 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 期可能3家企业装置计划停车，2-3家停车企业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量小幅减少的概 | | | | 率较大。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 内需方面，内需短期持续偏弱。北方地区农业追肥需求基本结束，在今年农业需求总量有需求前置的背景下，追肥需求的同比增速出现明显 | | | | ...

国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 刘豫武 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 | liuyuwu@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 2025年08月03日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 1、钢材观点：政策预期缓和，钢价小幅回落 2、铁矿石观点：情绪回落，震荡下修 3、焦煤焦炭周度观点：焦炭一轮提涨开启，震荡偏强 4、铁合金观点：市场情绪降温，交易回归基本面 Special report on Guotai Jun ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the multi - empty game intensifies, and the nickel price fluctuates narrowly. The fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the disk margin follows the macro - sentiment change [4]. - For stainless steel, the macro factor fades, and it returns to the fundamentals. The steel price fluctuates at a low level [5]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption progress of upstream factories. The market is trading the upstream resumption expectation, and the disk has short - term fluctuations [27][32]. - For polysilicon, it may have a short - term correction, and it is recommended to hold positions cautiously. The policy market dominates, but there is still a short - term correction drive [27][33]. - For lithium carbonate, the'movement - style anti - involution' cools down. Pay attention to the progress of the approval of mining certificates in Jiangxi. The price is under pressure, and the unilateral price will fluctuate widely [61][64]. - For palm oil, the macro - sentiment fades, and it may have a short - term pullback. The market is trading the de - stocking market in the second half of the year, but the current price may not match the fundamentals [86][87]. - For soybean oil, it lacks effective driving forces. Pay attention to the results of the China - US negotiations [86]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - Nickel: The influence of the macro - sentiment on the nickel market is marginal, and the fundamentals determine the elasticity. The contradiction at the ore end fades, and the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range oscillation judgment. The global refined nickel inventory increases moderately, and the short - term nickel price has a limited decline but is suppressed above [4]. - Stainless steel: The macro factor fades, and it returns to the fundamentals. The 8 - month production schedule shows a marginal increase, and the nickel - iron price is revised upwards. The inventory has decreased moderately, but it is still higher than last year [5]. - **Inventory Changes** - Nickel: The Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreases, the LME nickel inventory increases, the nickel - iron inventory has high - level destocking, and the Chinese port nickel - ore inventory increases [6][7][8]. - Stainless steel: The national stainless - steel social total inventory decreases weekly, with different trends in cold - rolled and hot - rolled inventories [8]. - **Market News** - There are news about the potential export suspension of nickel from Canada to the US, the trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and the adjustment of the mining quota period in Indonesia [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends** - Industrial silicon: The futures price shows a weak oscillation, and the spot price drops. The Xinjiang 99 - silicon and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon prices decline [27]. - Polysilicon: The futures price rises and then falls, and the spot trading is weak [27]. - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals** - Industrial silicon: The supply side has a marginal increase in production, and the overall industry inventory continues to be destocked. The demand side has stable short - term demand [28][29]. - Polysilicon: The supply side has an increase in short - term production, and the upstream inventory is destocked. The demand side has a slight increase in silicon wafer production, but the price transmission is not smooth [29][31]. - **后市观点** - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The increase in futures warehouse receipts may affect the market sentiment [32]. - Polysilicon: The policy market dominates, but there is a short - term correction drive. Pay attention to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [33]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends** - The futures contract price drops significantly, and the spot price also decreases. The basis and the spread between contracts change [61]. - **Supply and Demand Fundamentals** - Supply: The lithium concentrate price drops, and the production of lithium carbonate decreases, mainly due to the reduction of mica and salt - lake enterprises [62]. - Demand: The downstream procurement willingness increases, but the absolute demand is still lower than expected [62]. - Inventory: The total social inventory of lithium carbonate decreases, with upstream destocking and downstream inventory accumulation [63]. - **后市观点** - The'movement - style anti - involution' expectation is broken, and the price is under pressure. Pay attention to the progress of the approval of mining certificates in Jiangxi [64]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: The domestic macro - sentiment pushes the price to a three - year high, but the lack of downstream demand makes it difficult to continue rising [86]. - Soybean oil: The large number of export orders stimulates trading enthusiasm, and the soybean - palm oil price spread narrows [86]. - **This Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: The MPOB report's negative impact is digested, and the market trades the de - stocking market. Malaysia may continue to accumulate inventory in July, and Indonesia's production recovery may be lower than expected. The international oil market may have a systemic upward trend, and the palm oil price is relatively resistant to decline [87]. - Soybean oil: It lacks effective driving forces, and it is necessary to pay attention to the results of the China - US negotiations [86].