期 货 研 究 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6292 | 4402 | 4003 | 6036 | 435 | | 涨跌 | -84 | -54 | -86 | -56 | -10.9 | | 涨跌幅 | -1.32% | -1.21% | -2.10% | -0.92% | -2.44% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -28 | -58 | -82 | -12 | -2.4 | | 前日收盘价 | -38 | -56 | -79 | -14 | -2.1 | | 涨跌 | 10 | -2 | -3 | 2 | -0.3 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华东（元/吨） | MEG 现货 | 石脑油 MOPJ | Dated 布伦特 (美 | | ...

2025 年 10 月 20 日 集运指数（欧线）：现货变化不大，地缘问题反复 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 日涨跌 | | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2510 | 1,096.9 | -1.36% | 1,580 | 9,024 | -1,036 | 0.18 | 0.24 | | | EC2512 | 1,654.7 | -0.50% | 29,837 | 25,659 | -139 | 1.16 | 1.05 | | | EC2602 | 1,472.0 | 3.09% | 5,161 | 9,438 | 7 9 | 0.55 | 0.59 | | | EC2512 - EC2604 | 530.7 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the A-share market declined overall, with defensive sectors outperforming. The growth sectors led the decline, mainly due to Sino-US trade frictions and the emerging credit risks of US regional banks, which suppressed risk appetite. Although economic data in September exceeded expectations, the market continued to price marginal changes. Since October, external black swan events have made the market sentiment extremely sensitive, amplifying market fluctuations [1]. - The current core drivers are the development of external geopolitical situations and the extent of domestic policy support. The Fourth Plenary Session started at the beginning of this week, and the core content of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to be announced on the closing day of the meeting on October 23. If the content exceeds expectations, it may trigger speculative trading in related themes. Regarding external geopolitics, there are signs of easing in Sino-US relations. If the news of a meeting between the Chinese and US presidents is confirmed as the APEC meeting in South Korea approaches in late October, risk appetite may recover. After last week's adjustment, the market is expected to stabilize this week, but the upward space depends on whether positive Sino-US news can materialize [2]. - Key factors to watch include China's September production and consumption data, Q3 GDP data, the progress of Sino-US relations, and the performance of the US stock market [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [3]. - **Trend Strategy**: Buy on dips. The core trading ranges for the IF2511, IH2511, IC2511, and IM2511 contracts are expected to be between 4361 - 4586 points, 2890 - 3023 points, 6715 - 7165 points, and 6852 - 7313 points respectively [3]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Re - enter the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [4]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.4%, and most major domestic indices declined. Among them, the ChiNext Index and the Small and Medium - sized Board Index led the decline, falling by 5.71% and 5.77% respectively. In terms of sectors, the banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors had the highest gains, while the electronics, media, and automotive sectors led the decline [1][8][12][14]. - Since 2025, most domestic indices have risen, with the ChiNext Index leading the way with a 37.1% increase [10]. 4.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, among the stock index futures main contracts, the IC contract had the largest decline and the largest amplitude [17][20]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures have rebounded [19][21]. 4.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of October 17, the price - to - earnings ratios (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 14.15 times, 11.95 times, 33.44 times, and 45.68 times respectively [24][25]. 4.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The share of newly established equity - biased funds and the margin trading balance in the A - share market are provided in the report, and last week, the capital interest rate dropped, and the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The view on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) for this week is wide - range fluctuations. It's necessary to pay more attention to supply - side changes, especially the shipping schedule delays from late November to December caused by port congestion in Europe, which potentially benefit the 2512 contract. The 2512 contract is recommended to be traded with a wide - range fluctuation strategy, and the 2602 contract can also be considered for low - buying opportunities, mainly through 02 - 04 positive spreads for rolling long positions [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Spot Freight and Spot Index Tracking - The average market freight for 43 weeks was 1108 dollars for 20GP and 1812 dollars for 40GP. The SCFIS European Line index on October 13th was 1031.80 points, and it's expected to be around 1100 points on October 20th. The freight of the PA alliance loosened in late October, falling to 1300 - 1500 dollars/FEU [12][14][15] Seasonal Freight Trends of Major Global Routes - The SCFI and NCFI show the seasonal freight trends of major global routes, including Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - Mediterranean, Shanghai - North America, etc [17][18][20] Demand Side China's Export Perspective - In September 2025, China's US - dollar - denominated export year - on - year growth rate rebounded to 8.2%. Exports to the EU, Africa, and ASEAN remained strong, with the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the EU rising to 14.2% [26] Asia's Export to Europe Perspective - From January to August 2025, the cumulative container trade volume from Asia to Europe (Northwest Europe + Mediterranean) was 13.18 million TEU, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.7% [4] Asia's Export to North America Perspective - In January 2025, the container trade volume from Asia to North America was 2.1188 million TEU, with a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [33] US Import Volume Weekly Tracking - The data shows the weekly container import volume of the US from the world, India, China, etc., updated to October 9th [36][37][38] Supply Side Supply Chain Risk Events - Events include the Middle East geopolitical situation, European port operation efficiency, and Southeast Asian extreme weather. For example, Tropical Storm "Ramil" may affect port operations in South China Sea areas [45][46][47] Shipping Schedule Table - The weekly average capacity in November remained around 300,000 TEU/week (excluding 2 pending voyages), with a month - on - month increase of 16.5% and a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. There are many pending voyages in December, and the capacity may be significantly revised later [4][50] Dynamic Capacity - In the past week, the speed of 8,000 - 11,999TEU container fleets was around 15 knots, and the idle capacity of 8 - 11,999TEU container fleets was 14 ships as of October 10th [59] Turnover Efficiency - Data shows the congestion situations of ports in China, the UK/Europe, the Mediterranean/Black Sea, Southeast Asia, North America, and Asia [61][63][65] Static Capacity - In the past three months, the top ten liner companies received new 12,000+TEU container ships, with some deployed on European, American, and Latin American routes. In the next three months, they are expected to receive 18 new 12,000+TEU container ships [74][75][76]

Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Views LPG - This week, LPG's civil price declined due to international oil prices and a loose domestic supply - demand pattern; import costs dropped as FEI and CP decreased. The contract rebounded from previous lows. In the short - term, chemical demand is weak, and supply is affected by macro and policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to macro factors, import costs, and international geopolitical situations [3]. Propylene - This week, domestic propylene prices declined due to changes in supply and demand. Supply decreased slightly, and demand weakened significantly. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will improve, but the loose pattern will continue. Propylene prices are expected to remain weak with limited downside [4]. Summary by Directory LPG - Price & Spread - LPG domestic spot prices, including those of civil gas and other types, generally declined this week. Import gas prices also showed a downward trend, and the basis of various types of LPG changed significantly [7]. - The US - Far East freight dropped sharply, and the spreads between FEI and CP showed opposite trends. Propane prices weakened significantly [14][23]. LPG - Supply - US propane shipments to Japan and South Korea increased significantly due to the substitution of cracking raw materials. Canadian propane shipments decreased slightly. Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, and other Middle Eastern countries' LPG shipments showed different trends. China's LPG imports decreased, and the total LPG commodity volume increased slightly [32][40][59]. - The total domestic LPG commodity volume was 55.0 tons (+1.3%), with civil gas at 22.2 tons (+1.8%). Propane imports decreased by 12.9 tons [62][71]. LPG - Demand & Inventory - The开工 rates of PDH and MTBE decreased slightly. In terms of inventory, LPG refinery and port inventories were at a high level year - on - year and mainly decreased month - on - month (except in Shandong) [77][86][96]. Propylene - Price & Spread - Upstream prices of the propylene industry chain generally declined, and propylene prices also decreased. The prices of downstream products in the propylene industry chain showed different trends, and the profits of some products changed significantly [107][109]. - International and domestic propylene prices both showed a downward trend, with international prices having a slight correction from high levels and domestic prices running weakly [110][118]. Propylene - Balance Sheet - The开工 rates of the propylene industry chain changed this week, with some devices having decreased开工 rates. The supply and demand of propylene in the national balance sheet showed different trends in different months, and the inventory decreased slightly [128][130][131].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a state of caution due to the game between supply constraints and trade uncertainties. Macro risks have eased, and the supply shortage logic persists, providing long - term opportunities for bulls. Attention should be paid to the development of trade frictions. [6][10] - For aluminum, it is still testing the 21,000 - yuan level. The market is worried about the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions. In the short - term, the price shows a convergent oscillation. In the long - term, there is a bullish view on the unilateral price, volatility, and smelting profit. [78] - Regarding alumina, it is necessary to focus on whether the bottom has been found below 2,800 yuan. The spot market is weak in the short - term, but it has entered the cost - valuation support test phase. [79] Summary by Directory Copper Industry Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of LME and COMEX copper has increased. COMEX copper price volatility is around 27%, and SHFE copper volatility is around 25%. [16] - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has flattened, the spot discount of LME copper has narrowed, and the near - end structure of COMEX copper has changed from B to C. [18][22] - Position: The positions of SHFE and international copper have decreased, while the position of COMEX copper has increased. SHFE copper position decreased by 47,700 lots to 530,600 lots. [23] - Capital and Industry Position: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased, and the net long position of CFTC non - commercial has also decreased slightly. [29] - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has strengthened, and the bonded - area copper premium has declined. [32][34] - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, with a significant increase in domestic social inventory. [35][37] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has recovered, while that of SHFE copper is at a historically low level. [38] Supply End - Copper Concentrate: The import of copper concentrate has increased year - on - year, the port inventory has decreased, and the processing fee has remained weak. [41] - Recycled Copper: The import and domestic production of recycled copper have increased year - on - year. The scrap - refined copper price difference has narrowed, and the import loss has also decreased. [42][47] - Blister Copper: The import of blister copper has decreased, and the processing fee is at a low level. [51] - Refined Copper: The production and import of refined copper have increased year - on - year, and the spot import loss has narrowed. [54][55] Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises has rebounded in September, and the operating rate of wire and cable has increased marginally. [58] - Profit: The processing fee of copper rods is at a historically low level, while that of copper tubes has recovered. [60][62] - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. [63] - Finished - Product Inventory: The finished - product inventory of copper rods has increased, while that of wire and cable has decreased. [66] Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: The apparent consumption of copper is good, and grid investment is an important support. The grid investment has accelerated, and the cumulative investment from January to August reached 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14%. [71][73] - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle: The production of air - conditioners has resumed growth, and the production of new - energy vehicles is at a historically high level. [74] Aluminum and Alumina Industry Trading End - Term Spread: The spot premium of A00 aluminum and alumina has strengthened, and the near - month spread of SHFE aluminum has narrowed. [82][85] - Volume and Position: The position of SHFE aluminum and alumina main contracts has increased slightly, while the trading volume has decreased slightly. [88] - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum and alumina has declined. [93] Inventory End - Bauxite: The port inventory and inventory days of bauxite have increased. The inventory of alumina enterprises has continued to accumulate, the port shipping volume and floating inventory have decreased, and the out - port and in - port volumes have also declined. [98][103][104] - Alumina: The social inventory of alumina has increased, and the price has continued to decline. [79] - Aluminum: The social inventory of aluminum has decreased, and the spot premium has changed from discount to flat or premium. [78]

2025年10月19日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 19 日 棕榈油：产地去库进程偏慢，关注下方支撑 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库进程偏慢，关注下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：南美产情暂好，豆系缺乏有效驱动 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易事件不确定，低位震荡 | 8 | | 豆一：震荡 | 8 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 13 | | 白糖：低位震荡 | 19 | | 棉花：预计期价短期偏震荡 | 26 | | 生猪：二育刺激效果不及预期 | 33 | | 花生：面临供应压力 | 39 | 棕榈油：产地季节性减产尚未到来，印度买盘暂因排灯节放缓，缺乏有效驱动和故事的情况下，棕榈 油 01 合约维持小幅震荡，周跌 1.90%，关注减产季下方支撑。 豆油：巴西产情良好，大供给环境下豆油难以出现独立驱动，跟随油脂板块震荡为主，同时跟随中美 经贸关系波动，豆油 01 合约周跌 0.82%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：MPOB 报告证实马来 9 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Nickel: In the short term, nickel prices show a narrow - range oscillation, with contradictions still accumulating. The core lies in the game between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore policy. The key to breaking the deadlock depends on the progress of Indonesian nickel ore supply governance and approval [5]. - Stainless Steel: The current fundamentals struggle to find upward drivers, but the downward space is limited. In the long - term, it may shift from a supply - strong and demand - weak logic to a supply - demand dual - weak exploration mode. In the short - term, it is expected to move within a low - level range [6]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand are expected to weaken, and the trading strategy is to sell short at high prices. The expected price range next week is 8200 - 8700 yuan/ton [34]. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations still exist. It is recommended to buy on dips, with an expected price range of 51000 - 54000 yuan/ton next week [35]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures contract price is strong. Although there are potential downward risks, it is expected to remain strong. The recommended trading strategies include being bullish but not chasing the price in the single - side trading, positive spreads in the inter - period trading, and option hedging [67][69]. - Palm Oil: The de - stocking process in the producing areas is slow. Attention should be paid to the lower support [90]. - Soybean Oil: The production situation in South America is currently good, and the soybean complex lacks effective drivers [91]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Nickel - Fundamentals: The contradiction between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore policy is intensifying. The supply of refined nickel shows a marginal increase and weak demand, while the non - standard nickel fundamentals improve marginally. The core support lies in the cost of the pyrometallurgical path and the uncertainty of the Indonesian nickel ore supply policy [5]. - Inventory: On October 17, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1875 tons to 47505 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 13152 tons to 250530 tons [9]. - Market News: There are various events in Indonesia, such as the takeover of part of the PT WedaBav Nickel mining area, sanctions on mining companies for non - payment of reclamation deposits, and new regulations on the RKAB approval process. Also, there is a claim of potential additional tariffs on China by the US [10][11][12]. Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: The real - world fundamentals lack upward drivers, but the cost limits the downward space. The demand is suppressed by tariff barriers and weak real - estate post - cycle consumption, while the supply growth rate has declined compared to previous years [6]. - Inventory: In September, SMM stainless - steel mill inventory was 153.2 million tons, with a month - on - month change of - 1% and a year - on - year change of +4%. On October 16, the Steel Union's stainless - steel social inventory was 104.12 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.18% [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Price Movement: The futures price was weakly oscillating, and the spot price declined. On Friday, the futures closed at 8430 yuan/ton, and the SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 8750 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton) [29]. - Supply and Demand: The supply side shows that the weekly industry inventory increased. In October, production is expected to increase month - on - month. The demand side is supported by polysilicon and silicone in the short term, but overall, it is expected to be in a supply - demand dual - weak state [30][31][34]. Polysilicon - Price Movement: The futures price was oscillating strongly, and the spot price was stable. On Friday, the futures closed at 52340 yuan/ton [29]. - Supply and Demand: In October, supply increased, but leading enterprises plan to cut production at the end of the month. The demand side shows that the silicon wafer production schedule increased unexpectedly in October. The overall situation is expected to be in a relatively tight - balance state from November to December [31][33][35]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: The futures contract price strengthened. The 2511 contract closed at 75700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2960 yuan/ton, while the spot price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 73350 yuan/ton [67]. - Supply and Demand: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate. The weekly production reached a new high, and the demand is generally optimistic until November, but it is necessary to pay attention to the US tariff policy on Chinese energy storage [68]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Palm Oil - Market Situation: The de - stocking process in the producing areas is slow. Currently, the 01 contract shows a slight oscillation, and attention should be paid to the support level during the production - reduction season [90][91]. Soybean Oil - Market Situation: The production situation in Brazil is good. In a large - supply environment, it lacks independent drivers and mainly oscillates with the oil and fat sector, also fluctuating with Sino - US economic and trade relations [91].

Report Overview - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Author: Wang Hanxi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - Asphalt follows the decline of crude oil. After the holiday, the shipment volume increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in South China [4]. - The supply of asphalt increased slightly, with the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises reaching 35.8% this week, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% [4]. - The demand showed a month - on - month increase. The sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% [4]. - The spot price of asphalt continued to decline under pressure. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt this period was 3,544 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous period [4]. Summary by Directory Overview - Supply: The capacity utilization rate slightly increased due to the rotation to produce residue oil and shutdown for maintenance at some refineries, and the intermittent production at some main refineries in East China and Jiangsu Xinhai [4]. - Demand: The shipment volume increased month - on - month. Both factory and social inventories showed a destocking trend. The actual trading atmosphere was average in East China, and low - priced resources in social inventories were given priority [4]. - Valuation: The spot price of asphalt continued to decline, with the price range widening. All 7 regional prices decreased, with the largest decline of 4.2% in North China [4]. - Strategy: No specific strategies for unilateral, inter - period, or inter - variety trading were provided [4]. Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different raw materials have different asphalt yields [7]. - Futures: The disk price and trading volume of asphalt futures are presented, along with the comparison of Brent, WTI, and SC prices [11]. - Spot: The prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions are shown, as well as the price differences between regions and the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [12]. - Spread: The basis and inter - month spread of asphalt are presented, including the basis in Shandong, North China, the Yangtze River Delta, etc. [14][15][16] Fundamental Data - Demand: The consumption of asphalt is mainly in the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, etc. The shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 2.9% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 12.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.5% [20][24]. - Supply: The weekly output of domestic asphalt was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons (2.7%) week - on - week and an increase of 139,000 tons (29.0%) year - on - year. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories decreased by 2.4%, and the inventory of 104 social asphalt warehouses decreased by 2.1% [28].

烧碱：远月估值受压制 PVC：趋势偏弱 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：远月估值受压制 | 供应 | 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为81.4%，较上周环比-2.6%。分区域来看，西北、华北、华东、华南、东北负荷均有下 | | --- | --- | | | 滑，其中西北-2.6%至89.2%；华北-1.5%至75.2%，华东-2.9%至80.7%，东北-22.7%至73.0%，其中山东-2.0%至83.1%。 | | 需求 | 氧化铝方面，由于高产量、高库存的格局，未来利润将被持续压缩。目前企业生产意愿较高，氧化铝开工产能保持较高水平，但区域性供 | | | 需错配的问题未 ...