Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the precious metals market, with gold's non - farm data weakening and silver falling from a high. The trend strength for both gold and silver is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][6]. 3. Content Summaries by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Prices**: -沪金2510 closed at 770.72 with a daily increase of 0.06% and a night - session close of 781.12 with a 1.33% increase; Comex黄金2510 closed at 3416.00 with a 2.21% increase; London gold spot closed at 3362.09 with a 2.25% increase [2]. -沪银2510 closed at 8918 with a - 0.98% decrease and a night - session close of 8994.00 with a 0.80% increase; Comex白银2510 closed at 37.105 with a 0.86% increase; London silver spot closed at 37.025 with a 0.97% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Positions**: -沪金2510 contract's trading volume was 189,185, a decrease of 71,516 from the previous day, and its position was 218,768, an increase of 1,688 [2]. -沪银2510's trading volume was 587,441, a decrease of 513,199 from the previous day, and its position was 365,193, a decrease of 5,917 [2]. - **ETF Holdings**: - SPDR黄金ETF持仓 was 953.08, a decrease of 1; SLV白银ETF持仓 (the day before yesterday) was 15,056.67, a decrease of 6 [2]. - **Inventory**: -沪金 inventory was 35,745 kg, an increase of 102 kg; Comex黄金 inventory (the day before yesterday) was 38,675,474 troy ounces, an increase of 161,012 troy ounces [2]. -沪银 inventory was 1,183,957 kg, a decrease of 24,076 kg; Comex白银 inventory (the day before yesterday) was 505,219,644 troy ounces, an increase of 881,335 troy ounces [2]. - **Spreads**: - The spread between沪金2510 contract and 2512 contract was 189,185, a decrease of 71,516; the spread between沪银2510 contract and 2512 contract was - 8,261, an increase of 176 [2]. - The cost of the spread arbitrage of buying沪金 December and selling June was 4.77, a decrease of 0.87; the cost of the spread arbitrage of buying沪银 December and selling June was 73.41, a decrease of 11.3 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: - The US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.22, an increase of 0.23%; the euro to US dollar was 1.16 with no change; the US dollar to Japanese yen was 147.42, an increase of 0.05; the British pound to US dollar was 1.21 with no change [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000 [3]. - Trump blamed the weak non - farm data on officials appointed by Biden and called for the dismissal of the Bureau of Statistics director [5]. - There is an "open" internal struggle within the Fed. Two senior officials said "employment remains robust", while two opponents issued a statement saying "waiting is a mistake" [5]. - Fed Governor Kugler announced her resignation on August 8 [7]. - Trump threatened sanctions and demanded that Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement before August 8. Putin said that if someone was disappointed with the results of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks so far, it was because of "over - expectations" [7]. - OPEC+ agreed in principle to significantly increase production again in September [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals of LPG and propylene, including futures prices,持仓&成交, spreads, and key industrial chain data. It also provides market information such as Saudi CP expectations and domestic device maintenance plans [2][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: PG2509 closed at 3,965 with a daily decline of 0.95% and a night - session close of 3,923 with a decline of 1.06%; PG2510 closed at 4,404 with a daily decline of 0.83% and a night - session close of 4,367 with a decline of 0.84%; PL2601 closed at 6,474 with a daily decline of 1.08% and a night - session close of 6,460 with a decline of 0.22%; PL2602 closed at 6,561 with a daily decline of 0.73% and a night - session close of 6,521 with a decline of 0.61% [2] - **持仓&成交**: For PG2509, the trading volume was 67,049 (a decrease of 64,479) and the open interest was 89,961 (an increase of 4,242); for PG2510, the trading volume was 19,509 (a decrease of 11,819) and the open interest was 65,630 (a decrease of 737); for PL2601, the trading volume was 3,454 (an increase of 1,111) and the open interest was 4,575 (a decrease of 125); for PL2602, the trading volume was 77 (a decrease of 125) and the open interest was 1,127 (a decrease of 29) [2] - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 405 (previous day: 397); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 435 (previous day: 427); the spreads between Shandong, East China, and South China propylene and PL01 contract were - 269, - 124, and - 149 respectively (previous day: - 300, - 195, - 220) [2] - **Key Industrial Chain Data**: This week, the PDH operating rate was 72.6% (last week: 73.1%), the MTBE operating rate was 67.8% (last week: 69.0%), and the alkylation operating rate was 48.8% (last week: 46.9%) [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [10] 3.3 Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On July 31, 2025, the expected price of propane in September was 528 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 498 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The expected price of propane in October was 543 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 513 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [11] - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined; Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. starting maintenance in late November 2023, with the end time to be determined, etc. [12] - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many domestic liquefied gas factories have device maintenance plans, including Shandong's Shengli Heavy Oil, Haike Ruilin, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and loss volumes [12]

螺纹钢：市场情绪降温，宽幅震荡 2025 年 8 月 4 日 热轧卷板：市场情绪降温，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 来源：Mysteel，同花顺，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 7 月 31 日钢联周度数据：产量方面，螺纹-0.9 万吨，热卷+5.3 万吨，五大品种合计+0.65 万吨；总 库存方面，螺纹+7.65 万吨，热卷+2.79 万吨，五大品种合计+15.39 万吨；表需方面，螺-13.17 万吨，热 卷-8.31 万吨，五大品种合计-15.9 万吨。（数据来源：上海钢联） 【中共中央政治局:依法依规治理企业无房竞争。推进重点行业产能治理】会议指出要坚定不移深化改 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB ...

Report Basics - Report Date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ji Xianfei [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0012691 [1] - Email: jixianfei@gtht.com [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The firm spot premium of copper restricts the decline of its price [1] Summary by Directory Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,400 with a daily increase of 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 78,170 with a decline of 0.29%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,633 with a daily increase of 0.27% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,943, a decrease of 28,068 from the previous day, and the open interest was 167,671, a decrease of 8,522. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 26,400, a decrease of 20,146, and the open interest was 272,000, an increase of 986 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 20,349, an increase of 727, and the LME Copper inventory was 141,750, an increase of 3,550. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 10.07%, a decrease of 2.21% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME Copper spread was - 49.25, an increase of 1.51 from the previous day. The bonded - area warehouse receipt premium was 51, an increase of 2, and the bonded - area bill of lading premium was 64, an increase of 4. The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper was 73,100, a decrease of 100 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: Weak US non - farm payroll data has led to a sharp increase in interest - rate cut expectations. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in July was 48, showing the fastest contraction in nine months, and the employment index reached the lowest in more than five years [1] - **Micro**: Peru is evaluating 134 mining exploration and exploitation projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products starting from August 1. The tariff may trigger competition among US domestic traders. Codelco has cut copper mining operations at its flagship project El Teniente due to an accident [1][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

2025 年 08 月 04 日 铅：库存减少，限制价格下跌 【趋势强度】 铅趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16735 | 0.00% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1974 | 0.23% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 47634 | -5725 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 8929 | -1872 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 76338 | 3707 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 145724 | -585 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -20 | 5 | LM ...

2025 年 08 月 04 日 （资料来源：华瑞信息） 【趋势强度】 短纤趋势强度：0；瓶片趋势强度：0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 短纤：需求淡季，震荡偏弱 瓶片：震荡偏弱 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 短纤2508 | 昨日 6348 | 前日 6446 | 变化 -98 | PF08-09 | 昨日 -34 | 前日 -18 | 变化 -16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2509 | 6382 | | -82 | PF09-10 | -62 | -96 | 34 | | PF | | | 6464 | | | | | | | | 短纤2510 | 6444 | 6560 | -116 | PF基差 | 148 | 131 | 17 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 264681 | 254619 | 10 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market sentiment for both silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy has cooled, and they are in a wide - range oscillation state [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Silicon ferroalloy futures: For the SiFe2509 contract, the closing price was 5682, down 14 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 279,553 and an open interest of 155,097; for the SiFe2510 contract, the closing price was 5668, down 16, with a trading volume of 36,795 and an open interest of 45,177 [1]. - Manganese ferroalloy futures: The MnSi2509 contract closed at 5962, up 16, with a trading volume of 358,667 and an open interest of 271,263; the MnSi2510 contract closed at 5964, up 8, with a trading volume of 38,203 and an open interest of 30,765 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The spot price of silicon ferroalloy (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price of silicon - manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5720 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 40.5 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 620 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The spot - futures spread of silicon ferroalloy (spot - 09 futures) was - 182 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton; that of manganese ferroalloy was - 242 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton [1]. - The near - far month spread of silicon ferroalloy (SiFe2509 - 2601) was - 130 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton; that of manganese ferroalloy (MnSi2509 - 2601) was - 74 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton [1]. - The cross - variety spread of MnSi2509 - SiFe2509 was 280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; that of MnSi2601 - SiFe2601 was 224 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On August 1st, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton (down 100), in Ningxia 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton (down 150), in Qinghai 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton (down 150), in Gansu 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton (down 100), and in Inner Mongolia 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton (down 100). The price of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1030 - 1050 US dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1120 US dollars/ton. The price of 6517 silicon - manganese in the north was 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton (down 100), and in the south was 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton (down 100) [2]. - **Manganese Ore Export**: In June 2025, South Africa's manganese ore export volume was 2.2976 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%. From January to June, the total export volume was 13.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. In June, South Africa mainly exported manganese ore to the Asian market, with 1.4624 million tons exported to China (a month - on - month decrease of 17.98%) and 0.3303 million tons exported to India (a month - on - month increase of 3.9%) [2][3]. - **Procurement Information**: A steel mill in Zhejiang finalized the procurement price of 75B silicon ferroalloy at 6080 yuan/ton, an increase of 460 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 200 tons [4]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 3.5034 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40,900 tons; at Qinzhou Port, it was 0.8573 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 41,500 tons; at Caofeidian Port, it was 0 tons; at Fangchenggang Port, it was 50,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons. As of August 1st, the total manganese ore inventory was 4.4107 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,400 tons [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and that of manganese ferroalloy is also 0, indicating a neutral state [3].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 4 日 苯乙烯：压缩利润注意止盈，短期逢高空 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,296 | 7,332 | -36 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2510 | 7,329 | 7,371 | -42 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,387 | 7,374 | 13 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB08-EB09 | -33 | -39 | 6 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB09-EB10 | -58 | -3 | -55 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 7370 | 20 | 资料来源：同花顺，卓创，国泰君安期货 【趋势 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is "Oscillating Downward" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report presents the latest data on zinc's fundamentals, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, premiums, and inventories, and indicates a downward trend for zinc [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content 1. Zinc Market Data - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,320 yuan/ton, down 0.11%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic trading was 2,729.5 dollars/ton, down 1.18% [1] - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 105,121 lots, a decrease of 77,539 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 14,107 lots, an increase of 2,308 lots [1] - **Open Interests**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 108,084 lots, a decrease of 2,397 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 189,343 lots, a decrease of 568 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME CASH - 3M premium was -6 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.2 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventories**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 14,982 tons, a decrease of 76 tons; LME zinc inventory was 100,825 tons, a decrease of 3,975 tons [1] 2. News - People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Zou Lan stated that from the first - half financial data, the effect of monetary policy in supporting the real economy was relatively obvious. At the end of June, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale was 8.9%, M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and RMB loans increased by 7.1% year - on - year [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term outlook: Hold off on new positions and maintain existing long positions in crude oil [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil futures prices declined on August 4, 2025. WTI9 crude oil futures fell by $1.93 per barrel (2.79%) to $67.33 per barrel, Brent October crude oil futures dropped by $2.03 per barrel (2.83%) to $69.67 per barrel, and SC2509 crude oil futures decreased by 15.10 yuan per barrel (2.86%) to 513.00 yuan per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 1, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply and Production - Considering compensation measures, OPEC+ actual oil production may increase by 528,000 barrels per day in September. Eight OPEC+ member countries will raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and will hold their next meeting on September 7 [2] - The total number of US oil rigs as of the week ending August 1 was 410, down from 415 in the previous week [2] Geopolitical and Trade - Russia accounts for about 10% of the global oil supply. Despite US sanctions and warnings from Trump, Indian refineries continue to buy Russian oil. If the global market stops receiving Russia's daily supply of 9.5 million barrels of oil, oil prices could rise to $135 - $140 per barrel [2] - After the US imposed new sanctions, at least two ships carrying Russian oil originally destined for Indian refineries have diverted to other destinations. Trump has urged countries to stop buying Russian oil and threatened to impose a 100% tariff on countries that purchase Russian oil unless Russia reaches a major peace agreement with Ukraine [2] Economic Data - The US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in July were 73,000, lower than the previous value of 147,000 and the expected 110,000 [2] - The preliminary annual CPI rate in the Eurozone in July was 2%, in line with the previous value and higher than the expected 1.90% [2] Market Dynamics - As Middle East oil prices rise, Asia is increasing imports of US WTI crude oil [2]