Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the U.S. soybean market was closed for the Martin Luther King Day. The Dalian soybean meal futures followed the rapeseed meal in a correction, while the soybean futures showed a stable spot price and a fluctuating adjustment in the futures market [1]. - As of January 15th, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress reached 2%, up from 0.6% the previous week and higher than 1.7% in the same period last year. The overall harvest outlook is positive, but rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul and Matopiba regions needs close monitoring [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4321 yuan/ton during the day session, down 14 yuan (-0.32%), and 4316 yuan/ton at night, down 6 yuan (-0.14%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2727 yuan/ton during the day, down 7 yuan (-0.26%), and 2715 yuan/ton at night, down 13 yuan (-0.48%). Due to the holiday, CBOT soybean 03 and CBOT soybean meal 03 prices were not available [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In different regions, soybean meal spot prices were mostly stable or slightly decreased compared to the previous day. For example, in Shandong, the price range was 3120 - 3150 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan to unchanged. Different delivery - period basis prices in various regions were also mostly stable [1]. - **Industry Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 24.7 tons per day on the previous trading day, slightly lower than 25.15 tons per day two days ago. The inventory data from two days ago was 101.88 tons per week [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The U.S. market was closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Day, and there was no CBOT agricultural product daily review [1]. - According to AgRural, as of January 15th, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 2%. Mato Grosso led the harvest, while Paraná's progress was behind the historical average. The overall harvest outlook is good, but rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul and Matopiba needs attention [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 was 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including price trends, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each product [2]. 3. Summary by Product PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In the short - term, it is in a shock market due to weak costs. Future supply is expected to be loose, and attention should be paid to hedging strategies such as long PX short PTA and long MX short PX [2][10]. - **PTA**: Focus on reducing processing fees. Future supply and demand are both weak, and it will enter a stockpiling pattern. The downside of the unilateral price is limited, and its valuation depends on oil prices [2][11]. - **MEG**: The downside space of the valuation is limited. It is in a range - shock market. Although the supply pressure is large, the basis and spread may fluctuate due to factors such as coal - based load maintenance and overseas geopolitical impacts [2][11]. Rubber - It is in a weak - shock state. As of January 18, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased, and the market sentiment was affected [12][13]. Synthetic Rubber - It will operate weakly in the short - term. Although the static downside space is limited due to cost support, the dynamic situation depends on whether the decline of butadiene can open up the downside space [17][19]. LLDPE - The production of standard products has increased, and spot trading has weakened. The cost of raw materials has increased, but the downstream demand is weak, and there is medium - term supply - demand pressure [20][21]. PP - The monomer prices continue to diverge, and the cost support is relatively strong. However, the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [22][23]. Caustic Soda - There is still pressure in the trend. Before the Spring Festival, there is pressure to destock, and the price continues to decline. The far - month contract may face cost increases and supply reduction expectations [25][27]. Pulp - It is in a weak - shock state. The downstream demand is weak, and the high domestic inventory leads to a bearish fundamental pattern [30][33]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The supply - side pressure is not large, but the downstream demand is weak, and export orders support the rigid demand to some extent [35][36]. Methanol - It will operate in a shock manner. The short - term decline is due to the weakening of the commodity index, and the medium - term fundamentals may support the price. The upper and lower price limits are restricted [38][42]. Urea - It is in a shock - consolidation state. The short - term price may correct, but the decline is limited due to strong agricultural demand expectations. The medium - term trend is still strong [43][46]. Styrene - It will fluctuate in the short - term. The short - term export is strong, and the downstream restocking cycle has started, but the physical pressure of pure benzene is still large [47][48]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The production of enterprises is stable, and the downstream purchases as needed. The short - term price is adjusted steadily [49][50]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The downward driving force is gradually being realized. - **Propylene**: After the rapid increase in spot prices, the upward driving force has weakened [53]. PVC - It is in a weak - shock state. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term, and the core logic is to short the chlor - alkali profit [60][61]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is in a narrow - range shock, and short - term fluctuations are narrowing. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a night - session adjustment trend, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [63]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is in a temporary shock market. The supply - demand relationship is affected by factors such as shipping capacity, geopolitics, and demand. Different contracts have different trading strategies [65][81]. Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short Fiber**: It is in a short - term shock market, and the processing fee is running at a low level. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term shock market [84][85]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to close short positions opportunistically. The market price is stable, the new orders are limited, and the dealer's inventory reduction is slow [87][88]. Pure Benzene - It will fluctuate mainly in the short - term. The port inventory has decreased, and the spot price has increased [92][93].

2026 年 1 月 20 日 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | 期 货 | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅 铁2603 | 5548 | -22 | 114,689 | 229,601 | | | 硅 铁2605 | 5536 | -30 | 36,726 | 78,111 | | | 锰 硅2603 | 5808 | -20 | 123,290 | 228,834 | | | 锰 硅2605 | 5848 | -18 | 106,298 | 273,541 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅 铁:FeSi7 5-B:汇总价格:内 | 蒙 | 5270 | -50.0 | 元/吨 | | | 硅 锰:FeMn6 5S i1 7:内 | 蒙 | 57 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Platinum shows a box - shaped oscillation, and palladium follows a range - bound oscillation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The closing prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot markets showed different changes yesterday. For example, platinum futures 2606 closed at 615.10, up 0.83%; gold exchange platinum closed at 605.17, up 0.45%; NYMEX platinum (the day before) closed at 2381.60, up 1.65%. Among palladium prices, palladium futures 2606 closed at 477.95, up 1.83%; RMB spot palladium closed at 436.00, down 1.13%; NYMEX palladium (the day before) closed at 1882.00, up 1.92% [2] - **Trading and Position Data**: Trading volumes of platinum and palladium in different markets decreased compared to the day before. For example, Guangzhou platinum trading volume was 15,282 kg, a decrease of 10,420 kg; NYMEX platinum trading volume was 16,881 kg, a decrease of 27,525 kg. Positions also had different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. For example, Guangzhou platinum positions increased by 313 to 38,171, while NYMEX platinum positions decreased by 281 to 102,281 [2] - **ETF and Inventory Data**: Platinum and palladium ETF positions (in ounces, the day before) decreased. Platinum ETF positions were 3,270,326 ounces, a decrease of 237 ounces; palladium ETF positions were 1,192,961 ounces, a decrease of 223 ounces. Inventory data also had different changes, such as NYMEX platinum inventory (in ounces, the day before) increasing by 100 to 664,393 ounces, and NYMEX palladium inventory (in ounces, the day before) decreasing by 3,888 to 207,020 ounces [2] - **Spread and Exchange Rate Data**: Spreads between different platinum and palladium contracts and against spot prices changed. For example, the spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was -9.93, a decrease of 2.34 compared to the day before. Exchange rates such as the US dollar index decreased by 0.32% to 99.05; the US dollar against the RMB (CNY spot) decreased by 0.01% to 6.97 [2] 3.2. Macro and Industry News - The French Prime Minister will use Article 49.3 of the Constitution on Tuesday to take action on the revenue part of the 2026 budget draft [4] - Fed Chairman Powell will attend the Supreme Court hearing on Fed Governor Cook [5] - Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae will dissolve the House of Representatives on January 23 and hold a general election vote on February 8 [5] - The International Monetary Fund expects the world economy to grow 3.3% in 2026, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to the forecast in October last year; it will grow 3.2% in 2027, the same as the forecast in October last year [5] - Regarding the Greenland issue, Germany and France will take strong actions in response to US tariff threats, and EU leaders will hold an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday. Danish officials will miss the Davos Forum due to the escalating Greenland dispute [5] - Sources said that Russia's gasoline export ban on producers may be lifted in February [5] 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of platinum is 0, and the trend intensity of palladium is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

Group 1: Report Core View - The prices of both rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot have declined, affected by sudden events and raw materials [2][3] - The trend strength of both rebar and hot-rolled coil is neutral [4][5] Group 2: Futures and Spot Data Futures - RB2605 closed at 3,140 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan (-1.04%), with a trading volume of 1,056,242 lots and a position of 1,727,955 lots, a decrease of 27,384 lots [2] - HC2605 closed at 3,299 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-0.75%), with a trading volume of 486,769 lots and a position of 1,502,009 lots, a decrease of 12,645 lots [2] Spot - Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [2] - Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [2] - Tangshan billet price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,960 yuan/ton [2] Basis and Spread - The basis of RB2605 increased by 7 yuan to 137 yuan [2] - The basis of HC2605 increased by 12 yuan to -15 yuan [2] - RB2601 - RB2605 spread decreased by 4 yuan to 75 yuan [2] - HC2601 - HC2605 spread decreased by 9 yuan to -45 yuan [2] - HC2601 - RB2601 spread increased by 20 yuan to 129 yuan [2] - HC2605 - RB2605 spread increased by 7 yuan to 159 yuan [2] - Spot coil - rebar spread decreased by 10 yuan to -109 yuan [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - On January 19th, an explosion occurred in a 650m³ saturated water and steam spherical tank in the steel - making department of Baotou Plate Factory, which will affect the production of the plate factory and surrounding production lines [2] - January 15th steel union weekly data: rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.85 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 0.62 tons [3] - Total inventory: rebar decreased by 0.04 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.8 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 6.91 tons [4] - Apparent demand: rebar increased by 14.44 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 5.55 tons, and the total increased by 27.5 tons [4] - In December 2025, China imported 51.7 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 2.1 million tons (4.2%); the average price was 1,810.3 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 179.0 US dollars/ton (11.0%). From January to December, the cumulative imported steel was 605.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 75.6 million tons (11.1%) [4] - In late December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1,807 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 164.3 million tons, a daily output decrease of 11.0% month - on - month; 1,837 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 167.0 million tons, a daily output decrease of 0.6% month - on - month; 2,081 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 189.2 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.9% month - on - month [4] - In late December 2025, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 721 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27 million tons (3.6%); a decrease of 112 million tons (13.4%) compared with late November; an increase of 62 million tons (9.4%) compared with the same period last year [4] - In late December 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1,414 million tons, a decrease of 187 million tons (11.7%) compared with the previous ten - day period; an increase of 177 million tons (14.3%) compared with the beginning of the year; a decrease of 14 million tons (1.0%) compared with the same ten - day period of the previous month; an increase of 177 million tons (14.3%) compared with the same period last year; an increase of 178 million tons (14.4%) compared with the same period the year before last [4] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4] - In October 2025, China imported 50.3 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5 million tons (8.2%); the average price was 1,593.0 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 31.1 US dollars/ton (1.9%). From January to October, the cumulative imported steel was 504.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68.0 million tons (11.9%) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pulp industry is "shockingly weak", and the trend strength is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][3] Core View of the Report - The current market has a bearish fundamental pattern due to high domestic inventory and weak demand. The downstream paper industry has limited order releases and only maintains rigid procurement, which drags down the raw material pulp market. Attention should be paid to the demand sentiment changes in the broadleaf pulp market, the impact of the futures market on spot prices, and whether there will be a small - scale restocking demand before the Spring Festival. In the tissue paper market, prices are stable, and the overall trading enthusiasm is average. The key is to focus on changes in raw material pulp prices and the operation of paper mill equipment [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily - closing price of the pulp main contract remained unchanged at 5,362 yuan/ton, while the night - closing price dropped 36 yuan to 5,340 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 197,806 lots to 186,669 lots, the open interest of the 05 contract increased by 5,808 lots to 249,298 lots, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 9,550 tons to 139,584 tons, and the net position of the top 20 members decreased by 1,248 lots to - 17,075 lots [3] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "Silver Star - Futures Main" remained unchanged at 88, the "Goldfish - Futures Main (non - standard)" decreased by 50 to - 712, and the month - spread of SP03 - SP05 decreased by 2 to - 34 [3] - **Spot Market**: Among softwood pulps, the domestic prices of Northwood, Cariboo, Lion Brand, Moon, Silver Star, and Russian Needle are 5,700 yuan/ton, 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,600 yuan/ton, 5,400 yuan/ton, 5,450 yuan/ton, and 5,250 yuan/ton respectively. Among hardwood pulps, the domestic prices of Jinyou, Star, Xiaobian, and Bu are 4,650 yuan/ton, 4,650 yuan/ton, 4,650 yuan/ton, and 4,550 yuan/ton respectively. The domestic price of Kunhe chemical mechanical pulp is 3,800 yuan/ton, and the domestic price of Venus natural color pulp is 5,000 yuan/ton. Some international prices are also provided, such as 710 US dollars/ton for Silver Star, 590 US dollars/ton for Star, and 620 US dollars/ton for Venus [3] 2. Industry News - The trend of softwood pulp continued to be linked with the futures market, while the hardwood pulp market showed signs of loosening, with the tight supply situation alleviating and market sentiment weakening. The tissue paper market price remained stable, with average trading enthusiasm and cautious market sentiment. The raw material pulp price fluctuated, and the hardwood pulp price dropped slightly, providing insufficient support for tissue paper prices [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish view [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market for live pigs has weakened, and the expectations for the peak season have decreased [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,430 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 250 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 12,950 yuan/ton with a 150 yuan/ton increase; the Guangdong spot price is 14,060 yuan/ton with a 1,000 yuan/ton increase [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig 2603, 2605, and 2607 are 11,705 yuan/ton, 11,945 yuan/ton, and 12,605 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 275 yuan/ton, 210 yuan/ton, and 155 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live pig 2603, 2605, and 2607 are 149,841 lots, 49,664 lots, and 10,219 lots respectively, with increases of 88,100 lots, 26,503 lots, and 6,862 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest are 154,389 lots, 106,779 lots, and 44,679 lots respectively, with changes of - 7,106 lots, + 6,963 lots, and + 632 lots compared to the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live pig 2603, 2605, and 2607 are 1,725 yuan/ton, 1,485 yuan/ton, and 825 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 525 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton, and 405 yuan/ton. The spreads between live pig 3 - 5 and 5 - 7 are - 240 yuan/ton and - 660 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 65 yuan/ton and 55 yuan/ton [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - fiber is in a short - term volatile market with processing fees operating at a low level, and bottle - chip is also in a short - term volatile market [1]. - The trend strength of short - fiber and bottle - chip is 0, indicating a neutral view on the day - session main contract futures price fluctuations of the report date [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Short - fiber: - Futures prices of short - fiber contracts 2602, 2603, and 2604 decreased by 6, 2, and 14 respectively compared to the previous day. - The spreads PF02 - 03 and PF03 - 04 changed by - 4 and 12 respectively. - The short - fiber main contract basis decreased by 18, the main contract open interest increased by 355, the main contract trading volume decreased by 6400, the East China spot price decreased by 20, and the production - sales ratio increased by 4% to 76% [1]. - Bottle - chip: - Futures prices of bottle - chip contracts 2602, 2603, and 2604 changed by 2, 4, and 6 respectively compared to the previous day. - The spreads PR01 - 02 and PR02 - 03 changed by - 2 and - 2 respectively. - The bottle - chip main contract basis decreased by 21, the main contract open interest decreased by 1121, the main contract trading volume decreased by 41151, the East China spot price decreased by 15, and the South China spot price increased by 10 [1]. Spot News - Short - fiber: The short - fiber futures fluctuated and consolidated. Factory quotes were mostly stable, with some down 50. The mainstream negotiation range of semi - dull 1.4D was 6350 - 6550. The average production - sales ratio was 60% as of 3:00 pm [1]. - Bottle - chip: Upstream raw materials fluctuated. Polyester bottle - chip factories lowered quotes by 20 - 50 yuan. The market trading atmosphere was okay, with different prices for different months' orders [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The downstream procurement of lithium carbonate has cooled down, and the price is in a high - level oscillation [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 147,260 yuan, with a change of 1,060 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 329,126 lots, a decrease of 262,397 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 411,331 lots, a decrease of 4,802 lots from T - 1. For the 2607 contract, the closing price was 147,800 yuan, up 860 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 60,102 lots, a decrease of 74,923 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 119,847 lots, an increase of 1,403 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Basis**: The warehouse receipt volume was 27,698 lots, an increase of 240 lots from T - 1. The basis of spot - 2605 was 3,740 yuan, a decrease of 8,060 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2607 was 3,200 yuan, a decrease of 7,860 yuan from T - 1; the basis of 2605 - 2607 was - 540 yuan, an increase of 200 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,950 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,710 yuan, a decrease of 125 yuan from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 151,000 yuan, a decrease of 7,000 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 147,500 yuan, a decrease of 7,000 yuan from T - 1 [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 151,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7,812 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 151,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7,000 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 147,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7,000 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2]. - **Company Fund - Raising**: On January 19, Hunan Yueneng New Energy Battery Materials Co., Ltd. announced a plan to raise no more than 4.788 billion yuan through a private placement. The funds will be mainly used for the production capacity construction of energy - storage battery cathode materials and to supplement working capital. The projects include a 320,000 - ton/year lithium manganese iron phosphate project with an investment of 2.8 billion yuan, a 75,000 - ton/year ultra - long - cycle lithium iron phosphate project with an investment of 500 million yuan, and a 100,000 - ton/year iron phosphate project with an investment of 600 million yuan [3]. c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

2026 年 1 月 20 日 LPG：下行驱动逐渐兑现 丙烯：现货快速拉涨后，上行驱动转弱 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2602 | 4,167 | -0.83% | 4,162 | -0.12% | | 2602 | 9,207 | -8,251 | 12,280 | -2,014 | | | PG | 2603 | 4,092 | -1.09% | 4,077 | -0.37% | PG | 2603 | 50,581 | -29,177 | 94,859 | 787 | | 期货市场 | | 2604 ...