1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, PVC's trend is strong due to factors like export rush, the Minamata Convention, stock funds, and future production cut expectations. However, the PVC market has a high - output and high - inventory structure that is difficult to change. Before the 03 contract, the futures contracts face a pattern of high operation and weak demand. The expected significant inventory build - up during the Spring Festival and the contango structure limit the market's trading space for low - valuation factors, and the rapid recovery of the disk profit is not conducive to future production cuts and maintenance in the chlor - alkali industry. Also, PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and there is still significant pressure on long - position holders to take delivery. Overall, in 2026, the production cut in the maintenance peak season on the supply side may exceed expectations, which is beneficial for the profit repair of the chlor - alkali industry. Before the Spring Festival, the optimistic expectations are difficult to disprove, and the disk continuously raises the valuation. But if manufacturers do not cut production later, the market will still trade on delivery pressure and excessive forward premium [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 05 - contract futures price is 5063, the East China spot price is 4780, the basis is - 283, and the 5 - 9 spread is - 122. The domestic PVC spot market fundamentals remain dull. Industry supply is slowly increasing, but demand is gradually slowing due to the festival, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The disk was significantly pushed up in the afternoon due to carbon - emission - related remarks, but the spot market transactions were light, and the increase in spot prices was lower than that of the disk [2] 3.2 Market Condition Analysis - Short - term factors support the strong PVC trend, but the high - output and high - inventory structure persists. Before the 03 contract, there is a high - operation and weak - demand pattern. The expected inventory build - up during the Spring Festival and the contango structure limit trading space, and the rapid profit recovery is not conducive to production cuts. PVC warehouse receipts are high, and there is delivery pressure. In 2026, supply - side production cuts in the maintenance peak season may exceed expectations, and before the Spring Festival, optimistic expectations are hard to disprove, but if there are no production cuts later, the market will focus on delivery pressure and forward premium [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The PVC trend intensity is 0, with the value range of [- 2, 2], where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [4]

LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强，基本面驱动向下 丙烯：上行驱动转弱，关注成本端扰动 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 2026 年 2 月 2 日 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2603 | 4,290 | -1.33% | 4,354 | 1.49% | | 2603 | 129,632 | 46,252 | 86,346 | -7,800 | | | PG | 2604 | 4,584 | -1.10% | 4,646 | 1.35% | PG | 2604 | 39,541 | 18,402 | 64,086 | -2,165 | | 期货市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The log market is showing a slight upward trend, with the trend strength of logs being rated as "1" (indicating a relatively weak bullish sentiment) [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts (2603, 2605, 2607) have shown different degrees of change. For example, the 2603 contract's closing price increased by 1.7% daily and 2.8% weekly, and its trading volume soared by 56.5% daily and 205% weekly [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different futures contracts (such as 2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, 2605 - 2607) have also changed, and the spreads between spot and futures have increased significantly, with the spot - 2603 spread rising by 28.9% daily and 61% weekly [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The prices of various types of logs and wood squares in the Shandong and Jiangsu markets are mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases or decreases. For example, the price of 11.8 - meter spruce 20 + in the Jiangsu market decreased by 0.9% daily and weekly, while the price of 3 - meter radiation pine wood squares in the Zhenjiang market increased by 2.4% weekly [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's industrial enterprise profits in December increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual growth was 0.6% [3]. - Many real estate developers are no longer required to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled developers need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratios regularly [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of logs is 1, with the range of values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate repeatedly; silicon iron and manganese silicon will have wide - range oscillations due to commodity sentiment resonance; coke has completed the first round of price increase and will oscillate at a high level; coking coal will experience high - level oscillations due to event - related fermentation; thermal coal is in a weak supply - demand balance, and coal prices will have narrow - range fluctuations before the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar futures RB2605, the closing price was 3,128 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 15 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.48%. The trading volume was 1,218,321 lots, and the position decreased by 51,270 lots. For hot - rolled coil futures HC2605, the closing price was 3,288 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.30%. The trading volume was 523,900 lots, and the position decreased by 17,466 lots. In terms of spot prices, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase and decrease. The basis of RB2605 increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 increased by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 29, steel production increased, inventory of rebar increased while that of hot - rolled coil decreased, and apparent demand of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil increased. In December, the production of medium - thick plate mills of key enterprises increased year - on - year, while that of hot - and cold - rolling mills decreased. In mid - January 2026, the daily output of key iron and steel enterprises' crude steel decreased, while that of pig iron and steel products increased. The steel inventory of key enterprises and the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities showed different changes. BHP Billiton's iron ore production reached a record high, and it accepted partial price cuts. An explosion occurred at Baotou Steel's plate plant. In December 2025, China's steel imports increased in quantity and price. The government implemented export license management for some steel products [4][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both rebar and hot - rolled coil have a trend intensity of 0 [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: For silicon iron 2603, the closing price was 5660 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 76 yuan/ton; for silicon iron 2605, the closing price was 5646 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 58 yuan/ton. For manganese silicon 2603, the closing price was 5842 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 54 yuan/ton; for manganese silicon 2605, the closing price was 5872 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 54 yuan/ton. The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5330 yuan/ton, and the price of manganese silicon FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia increased by 30 yuan/ton to 5700 yuan/ton [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Two departments planned to increase the proportion of fixed - cost recovery of coal - fired power units through capacity - based electricity prices. The prices and production of silicon iron, manganese silicon, and manganese ore in different regions and enterprises changed. The average monthly operating rate and output of silicon iron in January decreased. Some steel mills issued招标 announcements and determined procurement prices for silicon iron and manganese silicon. As of January 30, the manganese ore inventory increased [9][10][11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both silicon iron and manganese silicon have a trend intensity of 0 [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal futures JM2605, the closing price was 1155.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 9.5 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.8%. For coke futures J2605, the closing price was 1721.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.1%. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed different changes, and the basis and spread also changed [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 30, the CCI metallurgical coal index of China Coal Resource Network was released. The online auction of coking coal had a lower non - successful bid rate and an average premium of 31.25 yuan/ton. The first - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the downstream purchasing sentiment was not high [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both coke and coking coal have a trend intensity of 0 [19]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of thermal coal in different producing areas, ports, and overseas regions, as well as the February long - term agreement prices, showed different changes compared with the previous period and the same period last year [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In January, the demand for thermal coal was in the peak season, and the price fluctuated. The provincial energy work conferences in various places set the direction for 2026 energy work. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association said that the government's production quota cuts might lead to mine closures [21].

Report Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it offers trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment ratings: - **Strongly bullish (2):** None - **Bullish (1):** Aluminum, industrial silicon, cotton - **Neutral (0):** Copper, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, polycrystalline silicon, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, power coal, paraxylene, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, PP, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European Line), staple fiber, bottle chip, pure benzene, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, peanut - **Bearish (-1):** Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, rubber, LLDPE, caustic soda, offset printing paper, palm oil, soybean oil, eggs - **Strongly bearish (-2):** Pig Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including their market trends, fundamental data, and macro and industry news. It suggests that investors should pay attention to the following factors when making investment decisions: - **Macroeconomic environment:** The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, the passage of the $1.2 trillion government spending bill by the US Senate, and the release of China's January official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data have all had an impact on the commodity market [5][8][13]. - **Industry supply and demand:** The report analyzes the supply and demand situation of each commodity, including production, inventory, and consumption. For example, the supply of copper is expected to be tight due to the suspension of production at the Mantoverde copper-gold mine in northern Chile and the reduction of production guidance by Lundin Mining [9]. - **Geopolitical risks:** The report also mentions the impact of geopolitical risks on the commodity market, such as the negotiation between the US and Iran and the potential shutdown of coal mines in Indonesia [7][23][53]. Summary by Section Metals - **Precious metals:** Gold and silver are releasing risks and falling from high levels, respectively. Platinum and palladium are also facing downward pressure due to the potential for panic selling and weak adjustment [2][5][20]. - **Base metals:** Copper is waiting for guidance and trading in a range, while zinc, lead, aluminum, and nickel are all showing signs of consolidation. Stainless steel is expected to be supported by the expected reduction of nickel pig iron production in February [2][9][12][15][17][25][26]. Energy - **Coal:** Coking coal and coke are trading at high levels after a round of price increases, while power coal is in a weak supply-demand balance and is expected to trade in a narrow range before the Spring Festival [2][47][48][52]. - **Petroleum and its products:** Paraxylene, PTA, and MEG are all trading in a high-level range, while fuel oil is trading strongly and low-sulfur fuel oil is adjusting narrowly [2][54][109]. Chemicals - **Synthetic rubber:** Synthetic rubber is falling from high levels due to the weakening of macro sentiment and the approaching of valuation indicators to the boundary [2][66][68]. - **Plastics:** LLDPE is facing limited demand due to the narrowing of import profits, while PP is supported by the rising oil price [2][69][72]. - **Others:** Caustic soda is expected to be supported by cost factors and has strong future expectations, while pulp is trading in a wide range [2][75][79]. Agriculture - **Grains and oilseeds:** Palm oil and soybean oil are adjusting at high levels, while soybean meal and soybeans are trading in a range. Corn is expected to have a limited downward adjustment [2][134][139][142]. - **Sugar and cotton:** Sugar is trading weakly, while cotton is expected to maintain a sideways trend [2][145][150]. - **Livestock and poultry:** Eggs are showing signs of weakness in the spot market, while pigs are facing increasing supply pressure before the Spring Festival [2][155][158]. Others - **Container shipping index (European Line):** The container shipping index (European Line) is trading in a range [2][111]. - **Offset printing paper:** Offset printing paper is recommended to hold short positions and conduct a 3-4 reverse spread [2][126].

2026年02月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：容量电价出台，盘面或底部企稳 | 4 | | 工业硅：上游减产落地，对价格构成支撑 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货实际成交情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 2 日 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 140,000 | -7,470 | - ...

2026年02月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪退潮，地缘影响衰减 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：高位震荡调整 | 2 | | 豆粕：盘面震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：回调幅度有限 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：预计保持震荡走势20260202 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货转弱 | 9 | | 生猪：供应将加速兑现，节前压力扩大 | 10 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 豆油：高位震荡调整 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 02 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：宏观情绪退潮，地缘影响衰减 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,240 | 涨跌幅 -1.30% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,296 | 涨跌幅 0.61% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that short - term resonance callbacks in the crude oil market are caused by liquidity risks, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1]. 3. Summary by Section International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures closed down $0.21 per barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%, at $65.21 per barrel; ICE Brent crude futures contract 03 closed down $0.02 per barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03%, at $70.69 per barrel; SC2603 crude oil futures closed down $12.90, a decline of 2.67%, at $470.00 per barrel [1] European Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - For Arab Extra Light, the slight refining value advantage is outweighed by the obvious price disadvantage and fixed freight costs, with an arbitrage incentive of - $4.15 per barrel [2]. - Arab Light has a significant disadvantage in refining value (heavy oil), which is the main reason for the closed arbitrage, with an arbitrage incentive of - $5.63 per barrel [2]. - Nemb a has refining value and price advantages, but extremely high freight (from West Africa to USGC) leads to closed arbitrage, with an arbitrage incentive of - $4.76 per barrel [2]. - Agbami has a serious negative arbitrage due to freight and price differences, with an arbitrage incentive of - $6.51 per barrel [2]. - Forties has a huge price disadvantage, indicating it is over - priced relative to WTI MEH, with an arbitrage incentive of - $10.47 per barrel [2]. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - In the North Sea, Forties to USAC has a slight negative arbitrage. Although there is a price advantage (+$2.08), the refining value disadvantage (-$2.24) is greater, with an arbitrage incentive of - $2.57 per barrel [4]. - From the Middle East, Arab Ex Light to USAC has an open arbitrage, mainly due to the price advantage (-$1.49) barely offsetting the refining value disadvantage (-$3.57) and freight, with an arbitrage incentive of $0.3 per barrel [4]. - From Algeria, Saharan Blend to USAC has a strong arbitrage driven by significant price advantage (+$0.04) and refining value advantage (+$0.28), with an arbitrage incentive of $4.81 per barrel [4]. - From Angola, Cabinda to USAC has a closed arbitrage, with the huge refining value disadvantage (-$5.21) being the core factor, with an arbitrage incentive of - $4.23 per barrel [4]. - From the US, WTI MEH to NWE is almost at the break - even point, but the slight refining value advantage (+$1.06) is not enough to fully offset other costs, with an arbitrage incentive of - $0.07 per barrel [4]. - From the US, Eagle Ford to NWE has an open arbitrage, similar to WTI MEH, relying on the refining value advantage, with an arbitrage incentive of $0.38 per barrel [4]. Southeast Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban against Tapis has an open arbitrage window. Murban has a price discount to Tapis and reasonable freight, with an arbitrage incentive of $2.48 per barrel [5]. - Dubai against Tapis has an open arbitrage. Although the refining value is lower, the overall arbitrage is positive due to the more attractive price, with an arbitrage incentive of $1.73 per barrel [5]. - Bonny Light against Tapis has a slightly positive arbitrage incentive, indicating a weak economic feasibility for West African light crude to flow into Asia, with an arbitrage incentive of $0.81 per barrel [5]. - WTI MEH against Tapis has a slightly open arbitrage window. Long - distance freight is the main constraint, and the economic feasibility is very limited, with an arbitrage incentive of $0.34 per barrel [5]. - Eagle Ford against Tapis has a better arbitrage opportunity than WTI MEH because of its higher refining value, with an arbitrage incentive of $1.19 per barrel [5]. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - From Algeria, Saharan Blend has a closed arbitrage. The huge price disadvantage (+$22.44) is the absolute dominant factor, indicating that Urals has a huge discount relative to Saharan Blend, with an arbitrage incentive of - $22.57 per barrel [6]. - From Azerbaijan, Azeri Light has a closed arbitrage. Similar to Saharan Blend, affected by the deep discount of Urals, the price difference (+$24.54) leads to a severely closed arbitrage, with an arbitrage incentive of - $20.61 per barrel [7]. - From Nigeria, Bonny Light has a closed arbitrage. The price difference (+$22.40) is the main reason, indicating that Bonny Light cannot compete with the discounted Urals here, with an arbitrage incentive of - $23 per barrel [7]. - North Sea's Ekofisk has a closed arbitrage. The discount of Urals makes it uncompetitive, with an arbitrage incentive of - $27.37 per barrel [7]. - From the US, Eagle Ford has a closed arbitrage. US crude cannot overcome the price advantage of Urals, with an arbitrage incentive of - $26.47 per barrel [7]. Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - From the UAE, Murban has a closed arbitrage. The huge price disadvantage (-$13.16) is the main obstacle, indicating that ESPO has strong price competitiveness, with an arbitrage incentive of - $11.93 per barrel [8]. - From Nigeria, Bonny Light has a closed arbitrage. Although there is a refining value advantage (+$3.38), the huge price disadvantage (-$14.19) and freight lead to the closure, with an arbitrage incentive of - $13.13 per barrel [8]. - North Sea's Forties has the worst economic feasibility, facing both a refining value disadvantage and extremely high freight, with an arbitrage incentive of - $20.54 per barrel [8]. - From the US, Eagle Ford has a closed arbitrage. The price disadvantage (-$9.89) and high freight are the main reasons, with an arbitrage incentive of - $10.73 per barrel [8]. Key Market News - Iranian officials deny plans to hold military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz [9]. - The US signals willingness to negotiate with Iran, and there may be a meeting in Turkey this week [9]. - Eight OPEC+ member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March [9]. - The US House Speaker is confident that the partial government shutdown will end before Tuesday [9]. - A new round of tri - party talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia will be held on February 4th and 5th [10]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, with the value ranging from - 2 to 2, indicating a neutral trend [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly hot - spot preview, listing important economic data releases and central bank decisions in the week of February 2 - 7, 2026, and analyzing their potential impacts on different futures markets [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This week's key concerns - On February 2 at 09:45, Markit will release China's January SPGI manufacturing PMI; at 23:00, the US ISM will release the US January ISM manufacturing PMI [2]. - On February 4 at 21:15, the US ADP will release January ADP employment change [2]. - On February 5 at 20:00, the Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision, meeting minutes and monetary policy report; at 21:15, the European Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision [2]. - On February 6 at 21:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January non - farm payroll report [2]. - On February 7, the People's Bank of China will announce China's January foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves [2]. This week's hot - spot preview February 2 - China's January SPGI manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.3 (previous value 50.1). A slight increase may help industrial and stock index futures rise and suppress treasury bond futures [3]. - The US January ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to be 48.3 (previous value 47.9). A slight increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures rise and suppress precious metal futures [4]. February 3 - The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 11:30, and its governor will hold a press conference at 12:30. The Australian cash rate is expected to be raised by 25 basis points to 3.85% [5]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the euro - area January CPI preliminary value at 18:00. The expected euro - area January harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted preliminary value is 1.7% (previous value 1.9%), and the core harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted preliminary value is expected to be 2.3% (same as previous value) [6]. - The Federal Reserve will release the US December 2025 industrial output monthly rate at 22:00, with a previous monthly rate of 2.7% [8]. February 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the prices of important production materials in the circulation field in late January at 9:30, covering 9 categories and 50 products [9]. - Markit will release China's January SPGI services PMI (expected 51.5, previous value 52.0) and SPGI composite PMI (expected 51.2, previous value 51.3) at 09:45. A slight decrease may suppress stock index and commodity futures and help treasury bond futures [10]. - The US ADP will release January ADP employment change at 21:15. The expected new employment is 45,000 (previous value 41,000). A slight increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures rise and suppress precious metal futures [11]. - The US ISM will release the US January ISM non - manufacturing PMI at 23:00. The expected value is 53.3 (previous value 54.4). A decrease may help precious metal futures rise [12]. - The US EIA will release the EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending January 30 at 23:30. A continued decline may help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [13]. February 5 - The Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision, meeting minutes and monetary policy report at 20:00, and its governor will hold a press conference at 20:30. The UK central bank base rate is expected to remain at 3.75% [14]. - The European Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision at 21:15, and its governor will hold a press conference at 21:45. The euro - area main refinancing rate, deposit facility rate and marginal lending rate are expected to remain at 2.15%, 2% and 2.4% respectively [15]. - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending January 31 at 21:30. The expected value is 212,000 (previous value 209,000). A slight increase may help precious metal futures rise and suppress other industrial futures [16]. February 6 - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January non - farm payroll report at 21:30. The expected seasonally adjusted new non - farm employment is 70,000 (previous value 50,000), the unemployment rate is 4.4% (same as previous value), and the average hourly wage monthly rate is 0.3% (same as previous value). An increase in new non - farm employment may suppress precious metal futures and help other industrial futures [17][18]. - The University of Michigan will release the preliminary value of the US February consumer confidence index at 23:00. The expected value is 55 (previous value 56.4). A decrease may suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures and help precious metal futures [19]. February 7 - The People's Bank of China will announce China's January foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves. The December 2025 foreign exchange reserves were $3,357.87 billion, and the gold reserves were 74.15 million ounces [20].

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 2 月 2 日 股指期货：波动加大，内强于外 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读： 1、 市场回顾与展望：上周股市整体呈现震荡格局，小盘风格指数表现更弱。板块方面，石油石化、 通信、煤炭涨幅居前；国防军工、电力设备，汽车跌幅居前。上周市场在对大资金政策调控的担忧下开 盘，随后整体驱动不明显，以板块性和结构性题材行情为主。在周初受到大宗商品延续大涨的支撑之下， 贵金属、有色以及能化板块明显强势。随后到周四，贵州茅台大涨，带动上证 50 等权重指数出现明显回 升。周五伴随贵金属大幅震荡，相关品种调整明显，同时带动风险偏好明显抑制，以小市值成长风格为首 的指数出现更明显波动，大盘价值指数则相对稳健。 后期来看，近期行情将继续受海外因素驱动影响。此前基于"米兰报告"(通过关税、军事安全扭转 美元高估，降低美元储备货币责任，缓解美国逆差与财政困难)与货币财政双宽松路径演绎下，市场对信 用货币信心下降，去美元化信仰持续深化，商品定价锚重估。贵金属成为核心替代，且依靠相关品种比价 重估带来牛市扩散。但由于新任美联储主席被冠以鹰派标签，央 ...