1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is weak with oscillations, and it will enter an oscillatory pattern in the medium term. In the short term, a large number of speculative funds have left the market, causing the commodity index to decline from its high, and methanol futures have followed suit. Also, with the strengthening of the basis, the supply of spot goods in the spot market is expected to increase, putting pressure on the supply side. In the medium term, methanol is expected to oscillate. The "anti - involution" policy provides some support for the overall valuation of commodities, and the current fundamentals of methanol are neutral, with the port unloading situation being the key point to watch [4]. - For single - sided trading, it is weak in the short term and oscillatory in the medium term, with an upper pressure range of 2420 - 2430 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - Charts show the trends of basis, month - spreads (9 - 1, 5 - 9), and the number of warehouse receipts of methanol from 2020 - 2025 [7][8][9][10]. - Domestic and international spot price trends of methanol from 2020 - 2025 are presented, including prices in regions like Inner Mongolia, Henan, and international prices in CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia, and FOB Rotterdam [12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. - Port - inland price spread trends from 2020 - 2025 are shown, such as the spread between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, Henan, and Lunan [19][20][21][22]. 3.2 Supply - From 2024 - 2025, China's new methanol production capacity has expanded significantly. In 2024, the total expansion was 400 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 840 million tons. Overseas, the total new capacity in 2024 was 355 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 330 million tons [24]. - A list of domestic methanol plant maintenance from 2019 - 2025 is provided, including information on affected regions, manufacturers, production capacity, raw materials, start and end times [26]. - Charts display the production volume, capacity utilization rate of methanol in China and different regions, and production volume by different production processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, natural gas, coal co - alcohol) from 2018 - 2025 [27][29][30][32][33]. - Data on methanol imports in China from 2020 - 2025 are presented, including import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit [36][37][38][39]. - Charts show the production cost and profit of methanol by different production processes (coal - based in Inner Mongolia, coke oven gas - based in Hebei, etc.) from 2020 - 2025 [41][42][43][44][45][46][47]. 3.3 Demand - Charts show the capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, etc.) in China from 2020 - 2025 [49][50][51][53][54]. - Data on the production profit of methanol downstream industries (MTO in East China and Shandong, formaldehyde in Shandong, etc.) from 2020 - 2025 are presented [57][58][60][61][62][63]. - Charts show the procurement volume of methanol by downstream industries (MTO and traditional downstream) in different regions of China from 2020 - 2025 [65][66][67][68][70][71][72][73]. - Data on the raw material inventory of traditional downstream industries in different regions of China from 2020 - 2025 are presented [75][76][77][78]. 3.4 Inventory - Charts show the factory inventory of methanol in China and different regions (East China, Northwest China, Inner Mongolia) from 2018 - 2025 [80][81][82][83]. - Charts show the port inventory of methanol in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong) from 2018 - 2025 [86][87][88].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年8月3日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【ANRPC：上半年全球天然橡胶产量料降1.1% 消费量则增1%】ANRPC最新发布的2025年6月报告预测，6月全球天胶产量料降1.5%至119.1万吨，较上月增 加14.5%；天胶消费量料增0.7%至127.1万吨，较上月增加0.1%。上半年，全球天胶累计产量料降1.1%至607.6万吨，累计消费量则增1%至771.5万吨。2025年全 球天胶产量料同比增加0.5%至1489.2万吨。其中，泰国增1.2%、印尼降9.8%、中国增6%、印度增5.6%、越南降1. ...

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 本周烧碱观点：短期震荡 烧碱：短期震荡 PVC：偏弱震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年8月3日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 观点 宏观端，关注8月外部关税问题超预期风险，同时近期反内卷情绪有所走弱。烧碱在此轮反内卷过程中基本面并没有明显改善，驱动不足， 目前反内卷政策也未涉及烧碱行业。当前烧碱由于处于需求淡季，涨价动力不足，但又受液氯偏弱影响，成本支撑强。此外，需要关注 08合约仓单对市场的冲击，低价仓单回流现货市场，容易加剧市场负反馈，因此烧碱短期承压。但长期看，烧碱旺季需求仍有期待，尤 其8月中旬大厂检修叠加下游旺季补库，容易导致现货驱动向上。 估值 山东边际装置成本计算=1.5*210(原盐)+2300*0.564(网电电价)+4 ...

Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 3, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **LPG**: Import costs are decreasing, and prices are weakly oscillating. Domestic civil gas supply and demand are both weak, and the overall price is fluctuating weakly. Ether C4 prices are oscillating, and the overall chemical industry's start - up is expected to have limited short - term boost. [3] - **Propylene**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and prices are under pressure and weak. Although the supply - demand gap may narrow further, it is difficult to drive price increases. The supply - demand pressure may ease from late August to September, and prices may turn around. [4] Summary by Section LPG Part Price & Spread - LPG domestic spot prices in various regions have decreased. For example, from July 25 to August 1, Shandong civil gas decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and South China imported gas decreased by 120 yuan/ton. [8][15] - CP prices were released lower, and FEI discounts narrowed and then decreased again. [16] Supply - US propane shipments to Japan and South Korea increased significantly, while shipments to China decreased significantly. [26] - Middle East LPG shipments decreased significantly, and shipments to China, India, and Southeast Asia all decreased. [34][40] - China's LPG total commodity volume was 52.7 million tons (+0.3%), with civil gas at 21.0 million tons (-0.0%). Propane imports increased by 22.5 million tons. [50][59] Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: PDH decreased slightly, and MTBE's operating rate decreased for the first time after 8 consecutive weeks of increase. [65] - LPG refinery inventories: Some regions decreased, such as East China's civil gas refinery inventory decreased from 18.43 million tons to 18.08 million tons. [68] - LPG terminal import inventories: East China and Fujian reduced inventories, while other regions' terminals increased inventories. [78] Propylene Part Price & Spread - Upstream prices: Brent rose by 1.13 dollars/bbl, and WTI rose by 2.19 dollars/bbl week - on - week. [89] - Propylene prices: Shandong, East China, and South China decreased by 35, 125, and 100 yuan/ton respectively week - on - week. [89] - Downstream prices/profits: Some products' prices and profits changed, such as PP powder profit in East China increased by 105 yuan/ton. [91] Balance Sheet - **National Balance Sheet - Supply**: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene production was 529 million tons, with a weighted operating rate of 79.5%. [105] - **National Balance Sheet - Demand**: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene demand was 526 million tons, with a weighted operating rate of 79.0%. [108] - **Shandong Balance Sheet - Supply**: In August 2025, Shandong's total propylene production was 90 million tons, with a weighted operating rate of 64.0%. [112]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - PX: Supply and demand are weakening, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure. The unilateral trend is weak, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure and the roll - over of the main contract. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the PX - MX spread has also declined but remains at a high level. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase [3][4]. - PTA: Cost support is weak, and there is negative demand feedback. Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure. The unilateral trend is weak, and short positions should be held. The spot processing fee remains low, and the basis and monthly spread are both weak [5]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is weak, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive monthly spread arbitrage. The profit of coal - based MEG plants has recovered, and the production of some ethylene oxide plants will be converted to MEG in the future [6]. Summary by Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX unilateral price has dropped significantly, and the structure has gradually become flat. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the PX - MX spread has also declined but remains high. Asian gasoline cracking spreads are weak, and the toluene disproportionation spread has weakened, while the toluene blending profit has recovered. The aromatics blending economy has improved [20][23][24]. Supply and Demand - China's PX operating rate is 81.1% (+1.2%), and Asia's overall operating rate is 73.4% (+0.5%). There is no new PX maintenance in China in August, and some plants are restarting. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase. PTA device operating rate is expected to decline in August, which means reduced demand for PX [3][42]. Inventory - In July, the monthly PX inventory in Longzhong dropped to 414 tons (-24) [65]. PTA Valuation and Profit - The spot supply is increasing, the basis is in a reverse arbitrage situation, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive monthly spread arbitrage at low levels. The spot processing fee remains at a low level, and some plants have unplanned maintenance [71][82]. Supply and Demand - The PTA device operating rate remains at 75.3% (-4.4%) and is expected to continue to decline in August. Some plants have stopped production or reduced loads. PTA exports are expected to increase in July - August, and port inventories are rising, but the total inventory accumulation is lower than expected [86][92][105]. Inventory - PTA port inventories are rising, but the cumulative increase in total inventory is lower than expected [105]. MEG Valuation and Profit - The unilateral valuation is in a volatile market, the monthly spread has declined, and the downward space is limited. The relative valuation of MEG compared to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics has risen to a high level this year, and the profits of each link have significantly recovered [125][129][132]. Supply and Demand - The operating rate of MEG continues to rise. Overseas, some plants are operating at low loads or under maintenance, and imports will remain high. Domestic coal - based MEG device operating rate is 75% (+0.6%), and future loads will continue to rise [135][136]. Inventory - No relevant content provided. 2025 PX - PTA - Polyester Production Plan - PX will have a new production capacity of 300 tons from Yulong Petrochemical in the second half of the year. - PTA will have new production capacities of 600 tons from Sanfangxiang and Xin Fengming in the second half of the year. - MEG will have new production capacities of 100 tons from Yulong Petrochemical and others in the second half of the year. - Polyester will have new production capacities of 305 tons from Anhui Youshun and others throughout the year [8].

集运指数（欧线）观点： 现货市场延续弱势，10空单酌情持有 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年8月3日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 需求 8月中旬起，市场整体货量呈温和下降趋势，观察后续回落速率。 33周市场运费中枢降至 3150 美元/FEU 附近，对应SCFIS指数在2200点左右。当前FAK运价下调速度偏中性，关注8月下旬至9月中旬跌价周期内运费下调速率 的变化。 观点 月度级别来看，9月大概率是供需双减格局，但当前统计到的运力下滑幅度或不及需求下滑幅度，预计基本面进一步承压，市场基本面交易逻辑维持逢高空。 海外宏观面，美国7月份非农就业人数增长低于预期，失业率小幅上升，市场风险偏好恶化，全球股市下跌，关注短期市场对"衰退"定价以及是否会与EC基 本面形成共振。 策略 单边：10空单酌情持有，上方压力位参考1450-1500点； 风险 关税变化；中东地缘局势迅速降温等。 估值 套利 ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年8月3日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：非农数据爆冷；白银：上行空间基本饱和 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银偏弱 价格区间：765-785元/克、8800-9280元/千克 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升0.1%，伦敦银回落5.8%。金银比从前周的86.3回升至92.5，10年期TIPS回落至1.9%，10年期名义利率回升至4.23%（2年期 3.69%），美元指数录得98.69。 ◆ 本周黄金出现明显回落，外盘最低触及到3300美元/盎司。本周美欧关税进一步敲定，中美之间贸易关税再向后递延90天，但对市场的扰动已然钝 化。本周公布的ADP以及二季度GDP数据均超预期走强，致使美元指数强势反弹。然而黄金在关税落地、经济韧性的压制下本应继续下行，但是价 格下方支撑仍然较为坚挺。我们上周提及，当黄金价格跌落后，多头资金也重新出现回归的现象：黄金ETF ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the straddle statistical arbitrage strategy led the option strategies in the CSI 300 stock index options and SSE 50 ETF options, with weekly returns of 0.28% and 0.18% respectively. The strategy of selling the wide - straddle at the maximum position led the option strategies in the CSI 1000 stock index options, with a weekly return of 0.76% [1][6][11][16]. - From January 2024 to the present, the benchmark strategies in the CSI 300, SSE 50 ETF, and CSI 1000 stock index options markets performed best, with cumulative returns of 24.37%, 26.13%, and 30.9% respectively. Among the option strategies, the short - put strategy in the CSI 300 and SSE 50 ETF options, and the protective put strategy in the CSI 1000 stock index options had relatively good performance [6][11][16]. - The three option hedging strategies (covered call, protective put, and collar) can effectively reduce the maximum drawdown of the benchmark in all three markets [7][11][16]. - The three option volatility trading strategies (straddle statistical arbitrage, short - straddle, and selling the wide - straddle at the maximum position) can effectively reduce the strategy's drawdown due to the additional threshold limit in the clustering dimension of implied volatility [7][11][16]. - In the CSI 300 and SSE 50 ETF options, the short - straddle strategy is better than the strategy of selling the wide - straddle at the maximum position in terms of short - selling volatility; in the CSI 1000 stock index options, the short - straddle strategy has better returns [7][11][17]. - The bull call spread strategy has stronger returns than the benchmark in all three markets and can reduce the maximum drawdown because it can avoid tail risks [7][12][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review 3.1.1 CSI 300 Stock Index Option Strategy Review - Based on the CSI 300 index, futures, and options, eight common strategies were back - tested. This week, the straddle statistical arbitrage strategy led with a 0.28% return. From January 2024 to the present, the benchmark performed best with a 24.37% cumulative return, and the short - put strategy led among the option strategies with a 9.79% cumulative return [5][6][7]. 3.1.2 SSE 50 ETF Option Strategy Review - Based on the 50 ETF and its options, eight common strategies were back - tested. This week, the straddle statistical arbitrage strategy led with a 0.18% return. From January 2024 to the present, the benchmark performed best with a 26.13% cumulative return, and the short - put strategy led among the option strategies with a 19.44% cumulative return [8][11]. 3.1.3 CSI 1000 Stock Index Option Strategy Review - Based on the CSI 1000 index, futures, and options, eight common strategies were back - tested. This week, the strategy of selling the wide - straddle at the maximum position led with a 0.76% return. From January 2024 to the present, the benchmark performed best with a 30.9% cumulative return, and the protective put strategy had relatively good performance among the option strategies [13][16]. 3.2 Strategy Specific Descriptions 3.2.1 Covered Call Strategy - Purpose: To enhance returns, commonly used by overseas mutual funds. It can reduce holding costs and enhance stock - holding returns when the underlying asset is expected to rise slightly or not rise [18]. - Construction: For the SSE 50 ETF, buy 1 share of 50 ETF and sell 1 share of a 10% out - of - the - money standard call option. For the CSI 300 stock index futures, buy 1 contract and sell 3 contracts of a 4% out - of - the - money call option [18][21]. 3.2.2 Short - Put Strategy - Purpose: To obtain premium income when the market is stable or not expected to fall sharply [24]. - Construction: Sell at - the - money standard put options, with different settings for the SSE 50 ETF and CSI 300 stock index futures in terms of contract multiplier and fees [24][26]. 3.2.3 Protective Put Strategy - Purpose: To hedge risks when the market goes down while allowing investors to enjoy some upside returns [28]. - Construction: For the SSE 50 ETF, buy 1 share of 50 ETF and 1 share of a 10% out - of - the - money standard put option. For the CSI 300 stock index futures, buy 1 contract and 3 contracts of a 4% out - of - the - money put option [29][31]. 3.2.4 Collar Strategy - Purpose: A neutral strategy that combines the covered call and protective put strategies to provide tail - risk management while reducing hedging costs [34]. - Construction: For the SSE 50 ETF, hold 1 share of 50 ETF, buy 1 share of a 10% out - of - the - money put option, and sell 1 share of a 10% out - of - the - money call option. For the CSI 300 stock index futures, hold 1 contract, buy 3 contracts of a 4% out - of - the - money put option, and sell 3 contracts of a 4% out - of - the - money call option [34][37]. 3.2.5 Straddle Statistical Arbitrage Strategy - Purpose: To trade volatility by taking advantage of the mean - reversion relationship between implied volatility and historical volatility [40]. - Construction: Use a straddle strategy to go long or short on implied volatility. Make decisions based on the difference between implied volatility and historical volatility, and consider the clustering of implied volatility [41]. 3.2.6 Short - Straddle Strategy - Purpose: A strategy to short - sell volatility, aiming to profit from the decline in volatility [46]. - Construction: Sell at - the - money call and put options of the same month, adjust positions according to changes in the at - the - money level and the main contract, and consider the clustering of implied volatility [48][51]. 3.2.7 Strategy of Selling the Wide - Straddle at the Maximum Position - Purpose: To obtain time - value income by constructing a short - wide - straddle option portfolio based on the maximum position levels of call and put options [53]. - Construction: Sell standard call and put options at the maximum position levels, adjust positions according to changes in the maximum position levels and the main contract, and consider the clustering of implied volatility [55][57]. 3.2.8 Bull Call Spread Strategy - Purpose: A low - cost long - call strategy, suitable for when the underlying price is expected to rise moderately in the short term and implied volatility is low [60]. - Construction: Buy at - the - money call options and sell 10% (SSE 50 ETF) or 4% (CSI 300 stock index futures) out - of - the - money call options [61][63].

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年8月3日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：再度下探支撑位 强弱分析：偏弱 价格区间：260000-265000元/吨 6月实际消费量环比下行 本周社会库存基本持平 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31 吨 实际消费量 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 01-26 02-10 02-24 03-07 03-18 03-29 04-11 04-22 05-06 05-17 05-28 06-10 06-21 07-04 07-15 07-26 0 ...

价格&价差 02 国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年8月3日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周沥青观点：社库高企，裂解续弱 | 供应 | 国内重交沥青77家企业产能利用率为33.1%，环比增加4.3%。分析原因主要是虽然克石化以及盘锦北沥降产，但山东个别主力炼厂以及金陵石 化稳定生产，导致产能利用率增加。根据隆众对92家企业跟踪，国内沥青周度总产量为58.1万吨，环比增加1.2万吨，增幅2.1%；同比增加 | | --- | --- | | | 14.6万吨，增幅33.6%。1-7月累计产量为1870.4万吨，同比增加150.8万吨，增幅8.8%。 | | 需求 | 下游按需采购低价沥青，南北市场 ...