Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view on urea is a correction. The production volume of Chinese urea production enterprises increased this week, and it is expected to increase slightly next week. The increase in the next cycle is expected to be limited. [2] - Domestic demand: Mid - stream traders' enthusiasm for chasing high prices has weakened. Before the Spring Festival, mid - stream and compound fertilizer factories are expected to make rigid purchases, not chasing high prices but buying on dips. Exports currently have a small impact on the urea market. [2] - Overall, spot transactions are neutral. Urea inventory is expected to enter a stage of oscillatory pattern, and the de - stocking speed will slow down. [2] - In the short term, due to weakening macro sentiment and small - scale urea reserve releases suppressing speculative signals, futures and spot prices are expected to correct. For the 05 contract, the fundamental pressure level is around 1,830 yuan/ton, and the support level is expected to be around 1,730 - 1,740 yuan/ton. [2] - Unilateral strategy: Weak in the short term and strong in the medium term. It is recommended to observe the spot trading volume and go long on dips. The upper pressure for the 05 contract is 1,830 - 1,850 yuan/ton, and the static support below is 1,730 - 1,740 yuan/ton. [2] - Inter - period strategy: The 5 - 9 spread is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to take a long position in the spread on dips in the medium term. [2] - Inter - variety strategy: None for now. [2] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the trends of urea basis (including Zheng Yuan, Bo Da, Jin Kai, Dong Ping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices from 2018 - 2026. [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][13][15][16][17][18][19] Domestic Supply Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3.92 million tons, and in 2025, it was 6.64 million tons. In 2026, the expected new production capacity is 6.51 million tons. [22] Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many urea production enterprises had maintenance plans from 2025 to 2026, including routine maintenance and loss - based maintenance. [24] Output - The production profit is around the break - even point, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level. Charts show the trends of daily output, capacity utilization rate, coal - based and gas - based urea output from 2018 - 2026. [25][26] Cost - Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has risen. Calculations of the full cost and cash - flow cost of fixed - bed factories in Shanxi are provided, along with charts showing the full cost trends of urea in different production processes from 2018 - 2026. [27][28][29][31] Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. Charts show the cash - flow profit and production profit of different production processes from 2018 - 2026. [32][33][35][36][37] Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, export policies have tightened. Data on monthly net imports (exports) from 2018 - 2025 are provided, along with charts showing export profits and export volumes. [38][39][40] Domestic Demand Agricultural Rigid Demand - Agricultural demand is seasonally strengthening. Different regions have different demand patterns for different crops at different times of the year. High - standard farmland construction has led to an incremental demand for urea from corn. [44][45][47] Industrial Rigid Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: Charts show the trends of capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and factory inventory of compound fertilizers from 2019 - 2026. [51][52][53][54] - **Melamine**: Charts show the trends of production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine from 2018 - 2026. [55][56][57] - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. Charts show the trends of export volumes of plywood, OSB, and real - estate construction and completion areas. [58][59][60][61] Inventory - As of January 28, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 944,900 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from last week, a 0.12% decrease. As of January 29, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 144,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a 7.46% increase. [2][65] International Urea - Charts show the trends of FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price in Brazil from 2018 - 2026. [69][70][71][72]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 01 CONTENTS 2 02 短纤（PF） 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 瓶片：震荡偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 观点小结 上游观点汇总 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 策略 2）跨期：反套持有 3）跨品种：无 03 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：高位震荡，控制仓位 供应 短纤工厂开始集中检修，平均负荷降低至85.3%，低熔点及中空短纤方面减停力度较大，棉型相对较小。 需求 终端开工率加速下行，以农历时间对比略早于往年。在原料快速上涨过程中，纱线、坯布价格跟涨不及，下游一方面担心年后价格上涨，另一 方面受制于利润，小幅补年前的库存为主。纱线、坯布环节的成品库存下降。出口订单环比好转，主要由于当前至美国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is high - level oscillation, with limited upside and downside potential. Macroscopically, Trump's agreement information reduces the probability of geopolitical conflicts, and the nomination of the Fed chair causes a decline in precious metals, leading to a weak macro sentiment. However, the strong international energy prices support the downside of methanol. Fundamentally, the short - term supply - demand pattern of methanol is weak, and high port inventories suppress the upside of prices. [2][4] - In terms of valuation, the current MTO fundamentals are weak, and production profits are continuously compressed. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO (coastal MTO factories) will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based plants in Henan. The coal price increase in the fourth quarter stabilizes the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol at around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, providing support to the lower valuation. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary - **Supply**: From January 23 - 29, 2026, China's methanol production was 2037735 tons, an increase of 28820 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 91.21%, a week - on - week increase of 1.43%. Next week, production is expected to be about 2.0771 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be about 92.98%, higher than the current period, as the planned restored capacity exceeds the capacity for maintenance and production cuts. [4] - **Demand**: - **Olefins**: The operating rate of the MTO industry increased slightly with the load increase of Ningbo Fude's MTO plant. - **Traditional downstream**: For dimethyl ether, the Xinxiang Xinlianxin plant may stop production next week, reducing supply and potentially lowering the overall capacity utilization rate. For glacial acetic acid, there are no planned maintenance activities next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, plants such as Xinxing Chemical and Gushi Huanyu may stop for maintenance, and Shandong Lianyi may further reduce the load, so supply is expected to decrease and the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there are no clear plans for plant shutdowns, but some plants may restart, so the domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise. [4] - **Inventory**: - As of 11:30 on January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's sampled methanol producers was 424100 tons, a decrease of 14200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.24%; the pending order volume of sampled enterprises was 265700 tons, an increase of 27400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 11.50%. - As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1.4721 million tons, an increase of 14600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.00%. Port inventories continued to accumulate, mainly in East China. There were 191400 tons of foreign vessel discharges, all in East China.提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu weakened, and although there was an olefin plant restart in Zhejiang, inventories still accumulated due to the supply from foreign vessels. In South China, there was only a small amount of domestic trade replenishment in Guangdong, and the mainstream storage areas'提货 weakened, resulting in inventory reduction due to the lack of foreign vessel supply. In Fujian, there were no discharges, and inventories also decreased. [4] - **Strategy**: - **Unilateral**: Short - term high - level oscillation, with the upper resistance for 05 contract at 2350 - 2400 yuan/ton and the lower support at 2150 - 2180 yuan/ton. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 9 spread may show a positive spread pattern. - **Inter - commodity**: The spread between MA and PP is in an oscillatory pattern. [4] 3.2 Price and Spread - Multiple graphs show the trends of methanol's basis, month - to - month spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences from 2020 to 2026, including the basis of methanol on CZCE, 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 month - to - month spreads, warehouse receipt quantity, domestic low - end prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and other regions, international CFR prices in China and Southeast Asia, FOB price in Rotterdam, and price differences between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, etc. [7][12][16][20] 3.3 Supply - **Methanol Production and Operating Rate**: Graphs display the daily production and capacity utilization rates of methanol in China and abroad, as well as the weekly production in the Northwest region from 2018 to 2026. [25] - **Methanol Production by Process**: Graphs present the weekly production of methanol from different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, natural gas, and coal co - alcohol) in China from 2018 to 2026. [27][28][29] - **Methanol Operating Rate by Region**: Graphs show the daily capacity utilization rates of methanol in different regions (Northwest, Southwest, East, and Central China) from 2018 to 2026. [30][31][32] - **Methanol Import - related**: Graphs show the monthly import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit of methanol in China from 2020 to 2026. [34][35][36][37] - **Methanol Cost and Profit**: Graphs display the daily production costs and profits of methanol from different processes (coal - based in Inner Mongolia, Shandong, coke oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural gas - based in Chongqing) from 2020 to 2026. [38][41] 3.4 Demand - **Methanol Downstream Operating Rate**: Graphs show the daily capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc.) in China from 2020 to 2026. [46][47][48][50] - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: Graphs present the daily production profits of methanol downstream industries (MTO in East China and Shandong, formaldehyde in Shandong, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu, etc.) from 2020 to 2026. [53][54][55][58] - **MTO Procurement Volume by Region**: Graphs display the procurement volumes of MTO production enterprises in China and different regions (East, Northwest, and Central China) from 2020 to 2026. [62][63][64][65] - **Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Procurement Volume by Region**: Graphs show the raw material procurement volumes of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China and different regions (North, East, and Southwest) from 2020 to 2026. [67][68][69][70] - **Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Inventory by Region**: Graphs display the raw material inventories of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China and different regions (Northwest, Shandong, and South) from 2020 to 2026. [72][73][74][75] 3.5 Inventory - **Methanol Factory Inventory**: Graphs show the weekly factory inventories of methanol in China and different regions (East, Northwest, and Inner Mongolia) from 2018 to 2026. [77][78][79][80] - **Methanol Port Inventory**: Graphs present the weekly port inventories of methanol in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong) from 2018 to 2026. [82][83][84]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum experienced a stage of unexpectedly large pullbacks, while palladium declined in tandem and was in a weak consolidation phase. Both platinum and palladium are considered weak. The price ranges are 500 - 600 yuan/gram for the main platinum contract in Guangzhou and 400 - 480 yuan/gram for the main palladium contract in Guangzhou [3][4]. - Platinum reached below the annual target value of $3000 per ounce and then lost its upward momentum. The forward discount in the London platinum market rapidly converged, and the characteristic of a more convex 3M curve disappeared. The change in the forward structure was likely due to the profit - taking of overseas forward long positions in the arbitrage portfolio after the narrowing of the internal - external price difference. There is a risk of further decline in the daily and weekly dimensions, but in the monthly and quarterly levels, platinum is expected to regain lost ground and revise its valuation upwards [4]. - Palladium showed more resilience than platinum in this pullback. Its London liquidity is tightening, ETFs are flowing in at an accelerated pace, and there is a small inventory build - up in the US. It is still too early to say that palladium has returned to fundamental pricing, and it is expected to generally follow the fluctuations of other precious metals [4]. - Due to the significant fluctuations in the precious metals sector, all unilateral positions are recommended to enter on the right - hand side, and protection can be set through short - option positions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Funds, and Positions) Trading Volume and Open Interest - As of the end of this week, the total open interest of platinum in Guangzhou was 33,860 lots, and the trading volume this week was 159,187 lots. The total open interest of palladium in Guangzhou was 12,615 lots, and the trading volume this week was 83,402 lots. Both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, the trading volume and open interest of the main contracts are significantly larger than those of non - main contracts. The price of platinum contract 08 is the lowest, and the structures of both platinum and palladium have switched to the B structure. Since platinum and palladium are in the initial listing stage, the inventory data of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has not been disclosed [8]. Platinum - Palladium Ratio - In the short term, platinum has a large pullback and is expected to oscillate at a low level. One can consider the long - platinum and short - palladium strategy when the ratio is below 1.2. In the first half of this week, palladium made up for its gains, and platinum had a significant pullback on Thursday and Friday, causing the platinum - palladium ratio to rapidly converge. As of the close on Friday, the overseas platinum - palladium ratio was 1.27, and the ratio in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 1.36 [10][12]. Overseas Futures - Spot Spread - **Platinum**: The spread between London platinum spot and New York platinum main contract showed a large - scale inversion on Thursday but basically returned to the flat - water level on Friday. The spread between New York platinum continuous and New York platinum main contract fluctuated sharply, changing from - $155 per ounce to $283 per ounce within the week [15]. - **Palladium**: The spread between London palladium spot and New York palladium main contract fluctuated within a narrow range, reaching $10 per ounce on Friday. The spread between New York palladium continuous and New York palladium main contract had an enlarged fluctuation, with an average value of $40.2 per ounce this week [19]. Arbitrage Costs | Arbitrage Type | Cost | Spread | Profit Window | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Platinum Spot - Futures Positive Arbitrage (Buy Spot, Sell 2606) | 8.2 yuan/gram | - 7.8 yuan/gram | Not opened [21] | | Palladium Spot - Futures Positive Arbitrage (Buy Spot, Sell 2606) | 6.3 yuan/gram | - 20 yuan/gram | Not opened [23] | | Platinum Near - Far Month Calendar Spread Positive Arbitrage (Buy 2606, Sell 2610) | 8.4 yuan/gram | - 5.1 yuan/gram | Not opened [25] | | Palladium Near - Far Month Calendar Spread Positive Arbitrage (Buy 2606, Sell 2610) | 6.2 yuan/gram | - 5.1 yuan/gram | Not opened [27] | | Platinum Internal - External Arbitrage (Buy NYMEX Main, Sell 2606) | 74.1 yuan/gram | 88.5 yuan/gram | 14.4 yuan/gram profit window [29] | | Palladium Internal - External Arbitrage (Buy NYMEX Main, Sell 2606) | 57.5 yuan/gram | 51 yuan/gram | Not opened [31] | | Platinum Import Parity Calculation (Buy London Platinum Forward, Sell 2606) | 71.6 yuan/gram | 100.5 yuan/gram | 28.9 yuan/gram profit window [33] | | Palladium Import Parity Calculation (Buy London Palladium Forward, Sell 2606) | 54.7 yuan/gram | 59.5 yuan/gram | Almost no profit window [35] | Recycling Spread - This week, the platinum recycling discount widened and then rebounded to the level of - 86 yuan/gram, while the palladium recycling discount rapidly widened to the magnitude of - 100 yuan/gram [37]. ETF Holdings - This week, the platinum ETF holdings increased by 2.93 tons (about 94,200 ounces), and the palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.92 tons (about 29,600 ounces). Both platinum and palladium ETFs are flowing in at an accelerated pace, but the prices dropped significantly on Friday, so the subsequent flow of ETFs needs to be closely monitored [39]. Fundamentals (Inventory and Import - Export Data) Forward Discount Rates - In the past three months, the overseas forward markets for both platinum and palladium have been in a discount structure. Recently, the depth of the forward discounts has diverged. The platinum forward discount continued to converge significantly, and on Friday, it broke the characteristic of a more convex 3M curve from Monday to Thursday, with the full - term discount now within 6%. The palladium forward discount quickly increased, reaching the level of 4% on Friday [44]. Inventory and Registered Warrant Ratio - **Platinum**: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory decreased to 655,200 ounces, approximately 20.37 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants increased accordingly, reaching 51.6% on Friday [45]. - **Palladium**: This week, the NYMEX palladium inventory increased to 224,000 ounces, approximately 6.97 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants continued to decline to 63.7% [48]. China's Import - Export Data - **Platinum**: Since September 2025, platinum exports have surged, and there has been a divergence between imports and net inflows. Since January 2020, the cumulative net inflow has been 553.88 tons. In December, both imports and exports increased, with imports of 5.57 tons, exports of 2.86 tons, and a net inflow of only 2.71 tons. The data for January 2026 has not been released [56]. - **Palladium**: Since 2020, there has been almost no palladium export, and it has been in a state of pure import, with a cumulative net inflow of 170.74 tons. In December, imports further increased to 5.68 tons, with a net inflow of 5.63 tons. The data for January 2026 has not been released [56]. London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance - A negative supply - demand balance means that the total buy orders are greater than the sell orders, indicating that the market - makers of the London platinum and palladium fixing prices are more willing to buy. This week, the London platinum fixing supply - demand balance reached - 170 kg on Wednesday and returned to a positive value around Thursday. The London palladium fixing supply - demand balance also reached - 170 kg on Wednesday [57][58][59].

美豆多空因素与观点 美豆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 01 | 总体观点 | | --- | | 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；需求有望好转，下方空间有限，总体震荡偏强，区间1000-1200美分/蒲式耳 | | 利空因素 | | 1、中国购买美豆后，特朗普政府对生柴添加政策的支持力度可能减弱 | | 2、巴西进入收割阶段，丰收概率增加 | | 3、阿根廷短暂干旱后有望迎来降水 | | 利多因素 | | 1、中国完成购买美豆1200万吨，未来三年每年2500万吨以上 | | 2、阿根廷前期干旱，单产可能下调 | | 3、美元走弱对美豆构成支撑 | Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 市场价格 ...

石脑油产业链周度报告 CONTENTS 总结 01 石脑油部分 02 乙烯部分 03 烯烃-芳烃影响 04 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 裂解-甲苯 脑油-芳烃 汽油-调油估值 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 总结 1 本周石脑油观点：乙烯或震荡筑底 石脑油维持窄幅震荡 | | 石脑油 | 乙烯 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 中东一季度出口季节性下滑预计2月后逐步抬升，俄罗斯出口超预 | 主营炼厂开工继续抬升，民营开工预计下周提升，MTO开工环比下滑，但往 | | | 期，小幅调增后期出口预期，E/W价差持稳，美国套利物流因稀释 | 下空间有限，整体上游供应本周环比小幅增加，供应端预期继续抬升空间相 | | | 剂需求减少，整体亚洲供应小幅缩减 | 对有限 | | 需求 | 亚洲乙烯裂解本周利润小幅亏损维持，丙烷估值抬升后替代经济性下滑，裂解 | 本周下游衍生品开工开始提升，同时利润整体继续修复，若该利润继续维持 | | | 装置失去LPG原料补充经济性，26年一季度这部分需求将转回石脑油， ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：加速下跌；白银：快速宣泄情绪 强弱分析：黄金偏弱、白银偏弱 价格区间：1000-1100元/克、21000-25000元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升0.72%，伦敦银回升4.23%。金银比从前周的50.3回落至47，10年期TIPS回升至1.9%，10年期名义利率回落至4.26%（2年期 3.52%），美元指数录得97.1。 ◆ 1月30日周四夜盘起，贵金属开启了历史性的暴跌，伦敦金从最高点接近5600美元在48小时内完成了约16%的跌幅，最低回到4700美元下方； 伦敦银则进一步彰显了其弹性，最高从121美元回到78美元附近，跌幅超过35%。当金银以超乎历史的斜率上行时 ...

二 五 2026 年 2 月 1 日 二 〇 国债期货周报 年 度 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 yukan@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 报告导读： 摘要： 上周周报我们提到"TL 合约上方压力位在 MA60 附近"，本周国债期货短端无明显波动，超长端有 所回落。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪 等原因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期、固收产品赎回超预期 （正文） 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 上周周报我们提到"TL 合约上方压力位在 MA60 附近"，本周国债期货短端无明显波动，超长端有所回 落。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪等原 因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 图 1：活跃合约走势 图 2：活跃合约周度涨跌幅 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 2. 流动性监控与曲线跟踪 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: February 01, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to experience a high-level decline in the short term. This is due to the reduction of geopolitical conflict probability and weakening macro sentiment, as well as the approaching boundary of some valuation indicators and the increasing negative feedback expectation [3][4]. - The butadiene market has limited short-term drivers and is expected to decline in the short term but has support in the medium term. The overall domestic butadiene fundamentals are balanced [5]. Summary by Directory Synthetic Rubber Supply - During the cycle, the high-cis butadiene rubber unit of Maoming Petrochemical restarted, and the load of individual butadiene rubber units in North China decreased slightly. The total capacity utilization rate only fluctuated slightly. The output of high-cis butadiene rubber in this cycle was 30,700 tons, an increase of 104 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month-on-month increase of 0.34%. The capacity utilization rate was 76.38%, a month-on-month increase of 0.27 percentage points [4]. - There is no news of new unit restart or shutdown for maintenance in the next cycle, but the load of private butadiene rubber units still needs to be carefully observed [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, some semi-steel tire sample enterprises were supported by foreign trade orders during the cycle, and the unit production schedule increased slightly, which supported the capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises. The shipment of all-steel tires was dull, and some enterprises still had production control, dragging the capacity utilization rate down slightly. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will decline in the next cycle [4]. - In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR-BR main contracts has turned from positive to negative, and it is expected that the substitution demand for synthetic rubber will gradually weaken [4]. Inventory - As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 34,400 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.74%. The price of butadiene, the raw material, increased unexpectedly this cycle, significantly driving up the butadiene rubber market. The low-price negotiation center shifted significantly upward, but the buying follow-up was slow. At the same time, butadiene rubber production was still significantly in the red, and some private enterprises in North China reduced their loads to varying degrees. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased slightly overall [4]. Valuation - The current static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 12,500 - 13,200 yuan/ton. The speculation is relatively strong, and the upward valuation pressure is invalid. In terms of the downward valuation, the NR-BR spread has completely shrunk, and the spread's support for valuation has failed. The effective support level is the butadiene rubber cost line, and butadiene is expected to support the butadiene price from the cost side. The theoretical full cost of butadiene is estimated to be mainly based on the butadiene price * 1.02 + (auxiliary agents + labor) = 10,500 * 1.02 + 2,500 ≈ 13,200. In terms of the actual full cost, depending on the factory, the fixed cost ranges from 1,500 to 2,500 yuan/ton, so the minimum cost is about 12,500 yuan/ton (10,500 * 1.02 + 1,800) [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: After overbought, short at high levels according to the valuation; the upper pressure is 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton (supported by the NR-BR spread and butadiene cost) [4]. - Cross-variety: The NR-BR spread gradually enters a low-level shock, and it is recommended to pay attention to the position of expanding the spread in the future [4]. Butadiene Supply - In this cycle (20260123 - 0129), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 113,500 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a month-on-month increase of 2.61%. During the week, the units of Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Hainan Refining and Chemical remained shut down, and the units of Shanghai Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical restarted one after another. The output of Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical was relatively limited, and the weekly output increased month-on-month. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 116,500 tons, a slight increase compared to this cycle. The units of Hainan Refining and Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical may gradually resume production [5]. Demand - In terms of synthetic rubber, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber will remain high in the medium term, and the demand for butadiene will remain at a high level year-on-year. In the short term, as the maintenance of butadiene units decreases, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will remain at a high level [6]. - In terms of ABS, the inventory pressure is relatively large, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant level, with relatively limited incremental demand [6]. - In terms of SBS, the operating rate increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remained unchanged, with limited changes [6]. Inventory - In this cycle (20260122 - 0128), the domestic butadiene inventory increased, and the total inventory of samples increased by 11.25% compared to last week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased by 3.85% compared to last week. Some enterprises' inventory increased slightly due to the restart of sporadic units and market fluctuations. The inventory of sample ports increased by 17.39% compared to last week. Although the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises was normally digested and merchants expected a decrease in imports in February, there were imported ships arriving at the port during this cycle, which affected the phased increase in sample port inventory [6]. - According to the report on January 28, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 40,500 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the previous cycle. Although the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises was normally digested and merchants expected a certain decrease in imports in February, there were imported ships arriving at the port during this cycle, which affected the phased increase in port inventory [6]. Viewpoint - The prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe are relatively strong. Overall, the domestic butadiene fundamentals are balanced. Butadiene will decline in the short term and has support in the medium term [5].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2026年2月1日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 本周LPG观点：短期地缘扰动偏强，基本面驱动向下 供应 国产方面，液化气总商品量54.3万吨，较上周环比增加1.9%；其中，民用气商品量23.2万吨（+1.6%），醚后商品量16.9万吨（+2.9%）；伴随 炼厂负荷抬升，当前国内民用气商品量逐渐修复至历史同期中性偏低位，而醚后碳四商品量维持在24、25年水平。成本方面，美伊局势紧张， 原油周内宽幅震荡，对LPG价格扰动偏强；而寒潮扰动有限，美湾丙烷价格回落；中东2月CP出台，略高于市场预期，成本支撑持稳，现货贴水 则受3月供应回归预期 ...