Report Overview - Report Date: January 20, 2026 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Report Focus: Nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Nickel**: Indonesian statements have repeatedly disrupted market sentiment, leading to wide - range fluctuations in nickel prices [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The futures price is anchored to the contradictions in the ore end, and the rising price of ferronickel supports the price center [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Downstream purchasing has cooled down, and the price is oscillating at a high level [2][9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production cuts by upstream producers have disrupted the market, causing the futures price to rebound [2][13]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the impact of market news [2][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 142,320 yuan, with a change of 970 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 949,372 lots, a decrease of 375,848 lots compared to T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 14,305 yuan, up 30 yuan from T - 1, and the trading volume was 375,328 lots, a decrease of 124,971 lots from T - 1 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for certain nickel - related products. China's Ministry of Commerce and Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products. Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore and adjust the nickel production quota [4][5][7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 147,260 yuan, up 17,280 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 329,126 lots, a decrease of 262,397 lots from T - 1. The spot - 2605 basis was 3,740 yuan, a decrease of 8,060 yuan from T - 1 [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 151,665 yuan/ton, down 7,812 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Hunan Yueneng plans to raise up to 47.88 billion yuan for energy - storage battery cathode material production capacity construction [10][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,845 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 391,114 lots, an increase of 109,861 lots from T - 1. For the PS2605 contract, the closing price was 50,505 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan from T - 1, and the trading volume was 12,235 lots, a decrease of 9,482 lots from T - 1 [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: TCL Zhonghuan plans to acquire all or part of the shares of Yidao New Energy, but the investment is still in the planning stage [13][15]. 4. Trend Intensity - **Nickel**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. - **Polysilicon**: 1, indicating a slightly bullish trend [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Neutral [2] - Silver: Neutral [2] - Copper: Neutral [2] - Zinc: Neutral [2] - Lead: Neutral [2] - Tin: Neutral [2] - Aluminum: Bullish [2] - Alumina: Bearish [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Bullish [2] - Platinum: Neutral [2] - Palladium: Neutral [2] - Nickel: Neutral [2] - Stainless Steel: Neutral [2] - Lithium Carbonate: Neutral [2] - Industrial Silicon: Neutral [2] - Polysilicon: Bullish [2] - Iron Ore: Bearish [2] - Rebar: Bearish [2] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Bearish [2] - Ferrosilicon: Neutral [2] - Silicomanganese: Neutral [2] - Coke: Neutral [2] - Coking Coal: Neutral [2] - Steam Coal: Bearish [2] - Logs: Bearish [2] - Paraxylene: Bearish [2] - PTA: Bearish [2] - MEG: Neutral [2] - Rubber: Bearish [2] - Synthetic Rubber: Neutral [2] - LLDPE: Bearish [2] - PP: Bearish [2] - Caustic Soda: Bearish [2] - Pulp: Bearish [2] - Glass: Bearish [2] - Methanol: Neutral [2] - Urea: Neutral [2] - Styrene: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Bearish [2] - LPG: Neutral [2] - Propylene: Neutral [2] - PVC: Bearish [2] - Fuel Oil: Neutral [2] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Neutral [2] - Container Freight Index (European Line): Neutral [2] - Staple Fiber: Neutral [2] - Bottle Chip: Neutral [2] - Offset Printing Paper: Bearish [2] - Pure Benzene: Neutral [2] - Palm Oil: Neutral [2] - Soybean Oil: Neutral [2] - Soybean Meal: Neutral [2] - Soybean: Neutral [2] - Corn: Neutral [2] - Sugar: Bearish [2] - Cotton: Bullish [2] - Eggs: Neutral [2] - Hogs: Bearish [2] - Peanuts: Neutral [2] Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market. It assesses the current situation of each commodity based on factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and macro - economic news, and gives corresponding investment ratings and trend intensities. For example, for gold, the rising risk - aversion sentiment is noted; for copper, the strengthening of LME spot and firm price are emphasized; for zinc, it is expected to trade in a range. Each commodity's analysis takes into account its unique fundamentals and market news [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: The risk - aversion sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have fluctuated. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts have decreased. ETF holdings have slightly changed, and inventories have different trends. Macro - economic news such as China's economic data and geopolitical issues may affect the price [6]. - **Silver**: The price is affected by tariff expectation fluctuations. Similar to gold, there are changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventories. The price of silver futures and spot shows certain volatility [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: LME spot has strengthened, and the price remains firm. The trading volume of domestic and international copper futures has decreased, and the open interest has changed slightly. The inventory of LME copper has increased, while that of SHFE copper has decreased. The premium of LME copper has increased. Macro - economic news and industry - related events such as Chile's copper mine plan and power grid investment may impact the price [10]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to trade in a range. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures have declined, and the trading volume has decreased significantly. The inventory of LME zinc has decreased, and the premium has changed. China's economic data and EU - US trade issues are the influencing factors [13]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The prices of domestic and international lead futures have declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of LME lead has decreased significantly [16]. - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. The price of domestic tin futures has decreased, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of SHFE tin has decreased, and the price of spot tin has declined [20]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to be oscillating strongly. The price of domestic aluminum futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of LME aluminum has decreased. The cost of electrolytic aluminum production and the price of alumina are important factors [24]. - **Alumina**: It is expected to continue to decline. The price of domestic alumina futures has decreased, and the trading volume has decreased. The average price of domestic alumina has declined [24]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [24]. - **Platinum**: It is expected to trade in a box - shaped range. The price of platinum futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly [28]. - **Palladium**: It follows the range - bound trend. The price of palladium futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly [28]. - **Nickel**: The repeated statements from Indonesia have disturbed market sentiment, and the nickel price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The price of domestic nickel futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. Indonesia's policies on nickel mining and production are the key influencing factors [32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is supported by the contradiction in the ore end and the increase in nickel - iron prices. The price of domestic stainless - steel futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased [32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The downstream procurement has cooled down, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of lithium carbonate futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has declined [37]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The upstream production cuts have disturbed the market, and the price of the futures has rebounded. The price of industrial silicon futures has increased, and the trading volume has increased. The inventory of industrial silicon has changed slightly [40]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the impact of market news. The price of polysilicon futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of polysilicon has increased [40]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to have a weak oscillation. The price of iron ore futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of imported iron ore has declined [43]. - **Rebar**: Affected by emergencies, the raw materials have dragged down the finished products. The price of rebar futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot rebar has declined [46]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, affected by emergencies and raw - material drag. The price of hot - rolled coil futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot hot - rolled coil has declined [46]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The demand - side expectation is tightening, and it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The price of ferrosilicon futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot ferrosilicon has declined [50]. - **Silicomanganese**: Similar to ferrosilicon, with tightening demand - side expectation and wide - range fluctuations. The price of silicomanganese futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot silicomanganese has declined [50]. - **Coke**: Affected by downstream accidents, it is expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of coke futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot coke has remained stable [54]. - **Coking Coal**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level. The price of coking coal futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot coking coal has remained stable [54]. - **Steam Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, and the price is expected to have a weak adjustment. The price of steam coal in various regions has declined [58]. - **Logs**: It is expected to have a weak oscillation. The price of log futures has declined, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot logs has remained stable [60]. - **Paraxylene**: The cost is weak, and it is expected to be in a short - term oscillation market. The price of paraxylene futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot paraxylene has remained stable [64]. - **PTA**: Attention should be paid to reducing the processing fee. The price of PTA futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot PTA has increased [64]. - **MEG**: The downward space of valuation is limited. The price of MEG futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The inventory of MEG in ports has decreased slightly [64]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating. The price of rubber futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot rubber has declined [72]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to be in a short - term weak operation. The price of synthetic rubber futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot synthetic rubber has declined [76]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products has increased, and the spot trading has weakened. The price of LLDPE futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot LLDPE has remained stable [79]. - **PP**: The monomer prices continue to diverge, and the cost support is relatively strong. The price of PP futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot PP has declined [81]. - **Caustic Soda**: The downward trend still has pressure. The price of caustic soda futures has declined, and the price of spot caustic soda has declined [84]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating. The price of pulp futures has remained stable, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot pulp has remained stable [89]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The price of glass futures has declined, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot glass has remained stable [94]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to oscillate. The price of methanol futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot methanol has declined [97]. - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate and consolidate. The price of urea futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot urea has remained stable [102]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation. The price of styrene futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot styrene has increased [106]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The price of soda ash futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soda ash has remained stable [108]. - **LPG**: The downward driving force is gradually being realized. The price of LPG futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot LPG has changed [113]. - **Propylene**: After the rapid increase in the spot price, the upward driving force has weakened. The price of propylene futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot propylene has remained stable [113]. - **PVC**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating. The price of PVC futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot PVC has remained stable [120]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, and the short - term fluctuation will decrease. The price of fuel oil futures has remained stable, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot fuel oil has increased slightly [123]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has adjusted, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur spot in the overseas market is temporarily stable. The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot low - sulfur fuel oil has increased slightly [123]. Agricultural Products - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is expected to be in a temporary oscillation market. The price of the index futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The shipping capacity, geopolitical situation, and demand factors are the key influencing factors [125]. - **Staple Fiber**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation market, and the processing fee is at a low level. The price of staple - fiber futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot staple fiber has declined [142]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillation market. The price of bottle - chip futures has increased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot bottle chip has declined [142]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to close short positions opportunistically. The price of offset - printing - paper futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot offset printing paper has remained stable [145]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is expected to be mainly in a short - term oscillation. The price of pure - benzene futures has increased, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot pure benzene has increased [150]. - **Palm Oil**: The short - term negative factors are limited, and attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of production cuts. The price of palm - oil futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot palm oil has remained stable [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: The themes of US soybeans are insufficient, and the rebound height is limited. The price of soybean - oil futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soybean oil has increased slightly [153]. - **Soybean Meal**: Due to the closure of the US soybean market overnight, the domestic soybean - meal futures followed the rapeseed - meal futures to correct. The price of soybean - meal futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soybean meal has declined [159]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating and adjusting. The price of soybean futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot soybean has remained stable [159]. - **Corn**: The price has corrected. The price of corn futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot corn has declined [162]. - **Sugar**: It is expected to be sorted at a low level. The price of sugar futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot sugar has declined [165]. - **Cotton**: It is waiting for the end of the adjustment. The price of cotton futures has declined, and the trading volume has decreased. The price of spot cotton has declined [171]. - **Eggs**: The sentiment of the far - month contracts has weakened. The price of egg futures has declined, and the trading volume has changed. The price of spot eggs has increased [178]. - **Hogs**: The spot price has weakened, and the expectation of the peak season has decreased. The price of hog futures has declined, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot hogs has declined [181]. - **Peanuts**: It is expected to oscillate. The price of peanut futures has increased, and the trading volume has increased. The price of spot peanuts has remained stable [185].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report suggests patience and caution in the crude oil market, warning of potential geopolitical risks. It also presents the latest prices of international crude oil futures and analyzes the arbitrage situations and market supply - demand in different regions [1]. 3. Summary by Directory International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI futures were closed for the US Martin Luther King Memorial Day. ICE Brent crude futures 03 contract dropped $0.19/barrel, a - 0.30% decline, to $63.94/barrel. SC2603 crude oil futures fell $2.30, a 0.52% decrease, to $440.30/barrel [1]. Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexico Gulf**: The arbitrage windows for various crude oils against WTI MEH or Mars are mostly closed due to factors like sufficient domestic supply, weak demand, and high freight costs [2]. - **Atlantic**: Some crude oils have limited arbitrage space, while others like Saudi and Russian crude oils have open arbitrage opportunities, reflecting different supply - demand situations [4]. - **North - Western Europe**: The arbitrage windows for some US and African crude oils against Forties are open, indicating strong demand for light crude in the region [6]. - **Mediterranean**: Most crude oils cannot compete with Russian Urals crude, with closed arbitrage windows due to supply surpluses and high freight costs [7]. - **Asia**: Most crude oils face challenges in the Asian market against ESPO or Dubai, except for Ecuadorian heavy crude which has an open arbitrage window [8]. Key Market News - An Indian company is considering buying Venezuelan oil and stopping Russian oil imports to comply with Western sanctions. - Israel's prime minister warns of a strong response if Iran attacks. - Iran says the Internet will return to normal this week. - December oil exports via the CPC decreased from 509 million tons in November to 398 million tons. - China's December 2025 crude oil production was 17.8 million tons, a 0.6% year - on - year decrease and a 1% month - on - month increase; the annual output was 216.05 million tons, a 1.5% year - on - year increase [11]. Trend Intensity The crude oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Palm oil: Short - term negatives are limited, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production cuts [2]. - Soybean oil: There is a lack of US soybean themes, and the rebound height is limited [2]. - Soybean meal: The US soybeans were closed overnight, and the Dalian soybean meal followed the rapeseed meal to correct [2]. - Soybean: The spot is stable, and the market is adjusted and fluctuating [2]. - Corn: It has corrected [2]. - Sugar: It is in low - level consolidation [2]. - Cotton: Wait for the adjustment to end [2]. - Eggs: The sentiment in the far - month contracts has weakened [2]. - Hogs: The spot has weakened, and the peak - season expectations have decreased [2]. - Peanuts: They are moving in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 8,648 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change, and night - time closing price was 8,710 yuan/ton with a 0.72% change. Soybean oil's daytime closing price was 7,996 yuan/ton with a - 0.25% change, and night - time closing price was 8,006 yuan/ton with a 0.13% change [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Reuters survey shows that the average price of palm oil in 2026 is expected to be 4,125 ringgit per ton, a 2.55% year - on - year decrease. Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be 19.75 million tons, a 2.61% year - on - year decrease. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to reach a record 51.2 million tons, a 0.39% year - on - year increase [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensity are both 0 [9]. Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2605's daytime closing price was 4321 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% change, night - time closing price was 4316 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change. DCE soybean meal 2605's daytime closing price was 2727 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change, night - time closing price was 2715 yuan/ton with a - 0.48% change [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Due to the Martin Luther King Day, the US market was closed on Monday, and there was no CBOT agricultural product daily review. As of January 15, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 2% [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal and soybean trend intensity are both 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2603's daytime closing price was 2,281 yuan/ton with a - 0.48% change, night - time closing price was 2,271 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change. C2605's daytime closing price was 2,272 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change, night - time closing price was 2,266 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port - collection price was 2280 - 2290 yuan/ton; the container first - grade grain port - collection price was 2330 - 2350 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday. The Guangdong Shekou bulk shipping quotation was 2420 - 2440 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton decrease from yesterday [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [15]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.96 cents/pound with a 0.39 change. The mainstream spot price was 5340 yuan/ton with a - 10 change. The futures main - contract price was 5244 yuan/ton with a - 14 change [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of January 15, the 25/26 Indian sugar production increased by 22% year - on - year. Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a 2.9% year - on - year increase. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December (+190,000 tons) [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is - 1 [19]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2605's daytime closing price was 14,545 yuan/ton with a - 0.31% change, night - time closing price was 14465 yuan/ton with a - 0.55% change. CY2603's daytime closing price was 20,510 yuan/ton with a - 0.12% change, night - time closing price was 20420 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot trading was generally average, and the cotton yarn price was generally stable, but the market sentiment was weak [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 1 [26]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2602's closing price was 2,998 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.93% change. Egg 2603's closing price was 3,023 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.34% change [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [30]. Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13430 yuan/ton. The Sichuan spot price was 12950 yuan/ton. The Guangdong spot price was 14060 yuan/ton. Hog 2603's price was 11705 yuan/ton, Hog 2605's price was 11945 yuan/ton, Hog 2607's price was 12605 yuan/ton [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hog trend intensity is - 2 [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton, Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton. PK603's closing price was 7,890 yuan/ton with a 0.69% change. PK605's closing price was 7,842 yuan/ton with a 0.28% change [36]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, the price of Baisha general peanuts was basically stable, and some large - peanut producing areas were slightly weaker. In Jilin and Liaoning, the price of 308 general peanuts was basically stable, and the purchase volume increased slightly [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [38].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The document does not mention the investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 19, 2026, and the overall trend in January 2026. Some futures are expected to reach new highs [1][2][4]. - It also presents a series of macro - news and their potential impacts on the futures market, such as policy changes and trade agreements [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Trend Forecast - **January 19, 2026 Forecast**: - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 are expected to oscillate and consolidate. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: T2603 is likely to oscillate strongly, and TL2603 is expected to oscillate and consolidate [2][41][46]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: AU2604 and AG2604 are expected to oscillate strongly and may reach new highs. PT2606 and PD2606 are likely to oscillate strongly [2][48][52]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Some, like CU2603 and AL2603, are expected to oscillate strongly, while others, such as ZN2603 and NI2602, may oscillate weakly [2][67][73]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Some futures, including JM2605 and FG605, are expected to oscillate strongly, and others, like RB2605 and I2605, may oscillate weakly [2][101][108]. - **January 2026 Forecast**: - Stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM continuous contracts) are expected to oscillate strongly. Some may reach new highs [4]. - Gold, silver, copper, and other futures continuous contracts are expected to oscillate strongly, with some reaching new highs [4][5]. 3.2 Macro - news and Their Impacts - **Domestic News**: - The State Council promotes consumption - boosting measures, and the SFC strengthens market regulation and promotes reform [6][7]. - The central bank adjusts the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial real estate loans and cuts re - loan and re - discount rates [7][8]. - The total social electricity consumption in China in 2025 exceeded 10 trillion kWh [9]. - **International News**: - Canada and China reach an economic and trade cooperation agreement, and the EU may impose tariffs on US goods [6][11]. - The US Federal Reserve officials express their views on interest rates and economic growth [10]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusts trading limits for silver and nickel futures contracts [13]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center revises the container shipping index (European line) futures standard contract [13]. - On January 16, international precious metal futures generally declined, while crude oil futures rose, and London base metals fell [13][14].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on key events and data releases in the coming week and their potential impact on the futures market, including domestic and international economic data, policy announcements, and speeches by important figures [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog This week's key concerns - On January 19th at 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the 2025 national economic operation [2][4]. - On January 20th at 09:00, the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for January 20th will be announced, expected to remain unchanged [2][8]. - On January 22nd at 21:30, the US Department of Commerce will announce the final value of the US GDP in Q3 2025 [2][12]. - On January 22nd at 23:00, the US Department of Commerce will announce the PCE price index for November 2025 [2][14]. This week's hot - spot preview - **January 19th** - The monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities will be released at 09:30, and its impact on related futures prices should be noted [3]. - The press conference on the 2025 national economic operation will be held at 10:00. Expected Q4 GDP growth in 2025 is 4.5% year - on - year, and the full - year GDP growth is expected to be 5.1% [4]. - The World Economic Forum's 2026 annual meeting will be held from January 19th to 23rd, with leaders from over 130 countries participating. Vice - Premier He Lifeng and President Trump will attend [5]. - **January 20th** - The 1 - year LPR is expected to be 3.00% and the 5 - year or more LPR is expected to be 3.50%, remaining unchanged from the previous value. If so, it will have a neutral impact on commodity, stock index, and treasury bond futures [8]. - **January 21st** - The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council will hold a press conference at 10:00, and its impact on related futures prices should be noted [9]. - The IEA will release the monthly crude oil market report at 17:00, and its impact on crude oil and related commodity futures prices should be noted [10]. - President Trump will give a speech at the World Economic Forum annual meeting at 21:00, and its impact on related futures prices should be noted [11]. - **January 22nd** - The final value of the US Q3 2025 real GDP annualized quarterly rate is expected to be 4.3% [12]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending January 12th is expected to be 200,000. A slight increase may mildly suppress the price increase of industrial product futures (except gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) but help the price increase of precious metal futures [13]. - The annual rate of the US PCE price index in November 2025 is expected to be 2.8%, and the core PCE price index annual rate is also expected to be 2.8% [14]. - The monthly rate of US personal income in November 2025 is expected to be 0.2% [15]. - **January 23rd** - If the EIA crude oil inventory continues to increase in the week ending January 16th, it will suppress the price increase of crude oil and related closing futures [16]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to keep the policy benchmark interest rate at 0.75% [17]. - The preliminary value of the euro - area SPGI manufacturing PMI in January is expected to be 49 [18]. - The preliminary value of the euro - area consumer confidence index in January is expected to be - 12.5 [19]. - If the preliminary value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in January is slightly higher than the previous value, it will mildly help the price increase of industrial product futures (except gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) but suppress the price of precious metal futures [20]. - **January 24th** - The market prices of important means of production in the circulation field in mid - January will be announced, covering 9 categories and 50 kinds of products [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Gold is affected by the resurgence of risk aversion, while silver is influenced by tariff expectation fluctuations. Copper prices are under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar. Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. The decrease in overseas lead inventories restricts price declines. Attention should be paid to tin resource stockpiling. Aluminum is grinding at a high level, and alumina is in a resonant decline. Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Platinum faces upward pressure due to a significant outflow from ETFs, and palladium follows a range - bound oscillation. Nickel prices fluctuate widely due to repeated statements from Indonesia, and stainless - steel prices are supported by the rise in nickel - iron prices [2]. Key Points by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Core view**: Gold is affected by risk aversion, and silver by tariff expectations [2]. - **Market data**: For gold, the Shanghai gold 2602 contract closed at 1,035.20 yuan with a daily decline of 0.52%, and the night - session price rose 0.04%. The Comex gold 2602 closed at 4,620.50 dollars with a 0.29% decline. The SPDR gold ETF increased its position by 1 ton. For silver, the Shanghai silver 2602 contract closed at 22,713 yuan with a 0.41% decline, and the night - session price rose 1.40%. The Comex silver 2602 closed at 92.210 dollars with a 1.05% decline. The SLV silver ETF reduced its position by 180 tons [4]. - **News**: Trump plans to impose tariffs on eight European countries from February 1st, and the EU may counter - impose tariffs on 93 billion euros of US goods. The hottest candidate for the Fed chairmanship has changed [4]. Copper - **Core view**: Copper prices are under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. - **Market data**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,770 yuan with a 1.75% decline, and the night - session price rose 2.87%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,809 dollars with a 2.59% decline. The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 2,300 tons, and that of LME copper increased by 2,450 tons [7]. - **News**: The production of Codelco in November decreased by 3% year - on - year. The US government may lift the mining ban in Minnesota. Codelco plans to extend the life of the Radomiro Tomic copper mine. The State Grid's "15th Five - Year Plan" investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase [7][9]. Zinc - **Core view**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [2]. - **Market data**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,750 yuan with a 1.36% decline, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3,207.5 dollars with a 3.20% decline. The inventory of Shanghai zinc decreased by 252 tons, and that of LME zinc decreased by 175 tons [10]. - **News**: Canada will import 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles at a preferential tariff rate. The hottest candidate for the Fed chairmanship has changed [11]. Lead - **Core view**: The decrease in overseas lead inventories restricts price declines [2]. - **Market data**: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,475 yuan with a 0.43% decline, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2,037.5 dollars with a 2.81% decline. The inventory of Shanghai lead increased by 1,191 tons, and that of LME lead decreased by 5,050 tons [13]. - **News**: The hottest candidate for the Fed chairmanship has changed. Trump postponed the decision to use force against Iran [14]. Tin - **Core view**: Attention should be paid to tin resource stockpiling [2]. - **Market data**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 405,240 yuan with a 6.41% decline, and the night - session price fell 8.42%. The LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 47,708 dollars with a 9.60% decline. The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 64 tons, and that of LME tin increased by 10 tons [17]. - **News**: Trump plans to impose tariffs on eight European countries, and France may use EU anti - coercion tools [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core view**: Aluminum is grinding at a high level, alumina is in a resonant decline, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - **Market data**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,925 yuan with a 450 - yuan decline. The LME aluminum 3M closed at 3,129 dollars with a 43 - dollar decline. The Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 2,751 yuan with a 38 - yuan decline. The aluminum alloy main contract closed at 22,735 yuan with a 420 - yuan decline [20]. - **News**: The hottest candidate for the Fed chairmanship has changed. Trump plans to impose tariffs on eight European countries [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Core view**: Platinum faces upward pressure due to a significant outflow from ETFs, and palladium follows a range - bound oscillation [2]. - **Market data**: No specific price data provided. - **News**: China will expand both exports and imports during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. US - led coalition fighter jets flew over the conflict area in northern Syria [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Core view**: Nickel prices fluctuate widely due to repeated statements from Indonesia, and stainless - steel prices are supported by the rise in nickel - iron prices [2]. - **Market data**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 141,350 yuan with a 5,400 - yuan decline. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,275 yuan with a 140 - yuan decline. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 5 yuan [26]. - **News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses. The Chinese government has implemented export license management for some steel products. Indonesia may revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore [26][27].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a short - term volatile market with marginal supply relaxation and cost - side support. Attention should be paid to positions for compressing processing fees in the PX - PTA segment [5]. - PTA is in a short - term high - level volatile market. The pressure of inventory accumulation in January - February is rising, and attention should be paid to positions for compressing PTA processing fees [6]. - MEG is in a range - bound market with limited downside space. Attention should be paid to basis and 5 - 9 positive spreads [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents 3.1 Futures Market - PX主力昨日收盘价7086，涨跌 - 44，涨跌幅 - 0.62%，月差PX5 - 9昨日收盘价60，较前日涨6 [2]. - PTA主力昨日收盘价5018，涨跌 - 30，涨跌幅 - 0.59%，月差PTA5 - 9昨日收盘价44，较前日涨6 [2]. - MEG主力昨日收盘价3796，涨跌 - 21，涨跌幅 - 0.55%，月差MEG5 - 9昨日收盘价 - 104，较前日涨7 [2]. - PF主力昨日收盘价6400，涨跌6，涨跌幅0.09%，月差PF3 - 4昨日收盘价 - 44，较前日涨18 [2]. - SC主力昨日收盘价438.8，涨跌 - 7.8，涨跌幅 - 1.75%，月差SC2 - 3昨日收盘价 - 3.5，较前日跌1.8 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - PX CFR中国昨日价格879美元/吨，较前日跌2.33美元/吨，PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格326.08，较前日跌11 [2]. - PTA华东昨日价格4960元/吨，较前日跌87元/吨，PTA加工费昨日价格379.62，较前日涨58.14 [2]. - MEG现货昨日价格3695元/吨，较前日涨18元/吨 [2]. - 石脑油MOPJ昨日价格548.5美元/吨，较前日跌7.75美元/吨，MOPJ石脑油 - 迪拜原油价差昨日价格 - 4.34，与前日持平 [2]. - Dated布伦特昨日价格67.76美元/桶，较前日涨1.45美元/桶 [2]. - 短纤加工费昨日价格120.64，较前日跌21.37；瓶片加工费昨日价格149.42，较前日涨47.24 [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - PX: 尾盘石脑油价格下跌，2月MOPJ目前估价在554美元/吨CFR，今日PX估价在881美元/吨，较昨日下跌16美元，中国PX负荷89.4% [3]. - PTA: 中国大陆独山300万吨重启提负中，新材料360万吨装置停车，目前PTA负荷在76.9%，另根据计算目前PTA开工率在82.9%附近 [3]. - MEG: 截至1月15日，中国大陆地区乙二醇整体开工负荷在74.43%（环比上期上升0.5%），其中草酸催化加氢法（合成气）制乙二醇开工负荷在80.21%（环比上期上升1.58%） [3]. 3.4 Polyester Market - 截至本周四，国内大陆地区聚酯负荷在89.9%附近 [5]. - 今日直纺涤短销售高低分化，截止下午3:00附近，平均产销76% [5]. - 江浙涤丝今日产销整体偏弱，至下午3点半附近平均产销估算在4成左右 [5]. 3.5 Trend Intensity - 对二甲苯趋势强度：0；PTA趋势强度：0；MEG趋势强度：0，趋势强度取值范围为【 - 2,2】区间整数 [5]. 3.6 Supply - related Information - PX: 一季度PX进口量整体回升，12月份初步估计95万吨，1月份预计90 + 万吨。国产供应目前开工整体负荷拉满，浙石化1月中旬开始降负荷，目前PX开工率维持89.4%（ - 1.5%）。海外装置方面，GS55万吨装置重启，科威特82万吨装置检修，亚洲整体负荷80.6%（ - 0.6%） [5]. - PTA: 本周逸盛新材料360万吨和英力士125万吨装置兑现检修计划，独山能源300万吨装置1.14附近重启，其250万吨装置计划本月底前停车，能投100万吨装置计划1月20日附近重启 [6]. - MEG: 供应端开工率仍偏高，国产乙二醇开工率74.4%，煤制开工率80.2%（ + 1.6%）。浙石化、武汉石化降负荷，内蒙古兖矿40、华谊20万吨负荷提升；1月下富德能源50、成都石油36万吨检修、三江100负荷2月下降、中化泉州50万吨1月底重启。聚酯方面长丝大厂增加检修力度，2月聚酯负荷下调至82 - 83%左右 [6].

2026年01月19日 | | | (基本面跟踪) 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单位 | 收盘价(日盘) | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价(夜盘) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 豆油主力 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 8.674 8.016 | 1.12% 0. 98% | 208.630 7.996 | -0.51% -0. 25% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9.063 | 2. 66% | 8. 955 | -1.19% | | | 马棕主力 12/ | 林吉特/吨 | 4. 056 | 1.91% | | | | 期货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 52. 51 | -0.87% | | | | | | 单位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 570. 565 | 36499 | 415.079 | -14.737 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 364, 708 | 122, 878 | 716, 141 | 3.875 | | | 菜油主力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trend strength of aluminum is 1, indicating a relatively positive trend; the trend strength of alumina is -1, showing a relatively negative trend; the trend strength of aluminum alloy is 1, suggesting a relatively positive trend [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 23,925, down 450 from the previous day, and the night - session closing price is 23,945. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price is 3,129, down 43. The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 660,823, down 106,057. The open interest is 333,899, down 12,932. The LME Aluminum 3M trading volume is 29,031, down 28,896. The LME cancelled warrant ratio is 8.49%, down 0.37%. The LME Aluminum cash - 3M spread is 1.42, unchanged. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract is -75, up 90. The cost of the near - month long and first - continuous short inter - period arbitrage is 79.72, down 11.05 [1] 3.1.2 Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 2,751, down 38. The night - session closing price is 2,768. The trading volume is 793,272, up 174,310. The open interest is 490,116, down 18,669. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract is -97, up 67. The cost of the near - month long and first - continuous short inter - period arbitrage is 33.74, down 7.39 [1] 3.1.3 Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 22,735, down 420. The night - session closing price is 22,710. The trading volume is 18,527, down 266. The open interest is 20,886, down 742. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract is -80.00, down 170. The spot premium is -180, down 50 [1] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The pre - baked anode market price is 6,087, unchanged. The Foshan aluminum rod processing fee is -20, unchanged. The Shandong 1A60 aluminum rod processing fee is 200, unchanged. The aluminum ingot scrap price difference is 1,586, down 41. The profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is 7,868.01, down 157.59. The profit and loss of aluminum spot imports is -2,149.97, down 114.15. The profit and loss of aluminum 3M imports is -1,873.41, down 197.59. The profit and loss of aluminum plate and coil exports is 3,394.86, up 172.56. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 74.90 million tons, unchanged. The SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipt is 14.08 million tons, up 0.27. The LME aluminum ingot inventory is 48.80 million tons, down 0.20 [1] 3.2.2 Alumina - The domestic average alumina price is 2,666, down 5. The alumina CIF price at Lianyungang is $331 per ton, unchanged, and 2,720 yuan per ton, unchanged. The Australian alumina FOB price is $310 per ton, unchanged. The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises is -202, unchanged [1] 3.2.3 Aluminum Ore - The price of Australian imported bauxite is $40 per ton, down 2. The price of Indonesian imported bauxite is $42 per ton, unchanged. The price of Guinean imported bauxite is $43 per ton, down 1. The Yangquan bauxite price is 430, unchanged [1] 3.2.4 Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 is 304, down 8. The price of Baotai ADC12 is 23,500, down 100. The difference between Baotai ADC12 and A00 is -530, up 10. The total inventory of three places is 43,492, down 19 [1] 3.2.5 Caustic Soda - The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) is 2,325, unchanged [1]