2025年10月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：宏观情绪转承压，镍价低位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：宏观与现实共振施压，下方成本限制弹性 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：需求向好叠加仓单去化，短期走势偏坚挺 | 4 | | 工业硅：弱势供需格局 | 6 | | 多晶硅：本周会议陆续召开，盘面看涨对待 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 15 日 镍：宏观情绪转承压，镍价低位震荡 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）9 月 12 日钢联资讯：因违反林业许可证规定，印尼林业工作组接管 PT WedaBav Nickel 超过 148 公顷矿区。印尼政府将负责管理该区域，并对该公司处以罚款。该矿区位于北马鲁古省哈马黑拉岛，今年 已通过的 RKAB 镍矿批复量级达 4200 万湿吨，其中包括 1000 万吨湿法矿，总矿区占地 4.7 万公顷，包含 15 个矿点，印尼林业工作组接管区域占总矿区面积 0.3%，预计影响镍矿产量约 600 金属吨/月。 2）据外媒报道，中国暂 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 15 日 研 究 所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI11 月原油期货收跌 0.79 美元/桶，跌幅 1.33%，报 58.70 美元/桶；布伦特 12 月原油期货 收跌 0.93 美元/桶，跌幅 1.47%，报 62.39 美元/桶；SC2512 原油期货收跌 6.20 元/桶，跌幅 1.37%， 报 446.30 元/桶。 1、原油套利 | 套利路线 | 代表性油种 | 套利窗口状态 (2025-10-13) | 市场情况说明 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 进入 USGC | Arab Light, | 关闭（- | 相对于美国本土基准 WTI MEH，大西洋盆地的轻质原油 | | (Cracking) | Forties | 5.91/bbl,−7.17/bbl） | 进口经济性不佳，抑制跨大西 | | | | | 洋进口。 | | 进入 USGC | Maya, | 接近平衡/略亏（- | 重质原油（如 Maya）与基准 | | (Coking) | Vas ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - The stock index options are experiencing a downward wave increase, indicating a rise in bearish sentiment [1] 2. Market Data Summary 2.1 Underlying Market Statistics - The closing prices of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 2961.10, 4539.06, and 7373.15 respectively, all showing declines. The trading volumes were 86.18 billion, 372.95 billion, and 304.41 billion hands respectively, with changes of 16.02 billion, 57.94 billion, and 16.01 billion hands [2] - For ETFs, the closing prices of Shanghai Composite 50 ETF, Huatai-PineBridge 300 ETF, and others also mostly declined, with varying trading volumes and changes [2] 2.2 Option Market Statistics - The trading volumes and open interests of various index options and ETF options showed different degrees of change. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option was 68,793, an increase of 4,243, and the open interest was 77,492, an increase of 248 [2] - The VL-PCR and OI-PCR of different options also varied, reflecting different market sentiment. For instance, the VL-PCR of Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option was 68.12%, and the OI-PCR was 72.11% [2] 2.3 Option Volatility Statistics - The ATM-IV, IV changes, same - term HV, and HV changes of different options were presented. For example, the near - month ATM - IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index Option was 17.32%, with an IV change of 1.69%, and the same - term HV was 11.68%, with an HV change of - 8.47% [5] 3. Figures and Charts - There are multiple figures and charts for different index options and ETF options, including the full - contract PCR chart, the main - contract skewness chart, the volatility cone chart, and the volatility term structure chart, which visually display the market conditions of each option [9][14][18]

标:安安期货客户中的专业投资者，请勿同读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的排价，亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因装放人以到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 2025/10/14 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 李先飞 | 刘雨萱 | 王蓉 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jix ...

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 核心观点汇总 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆得益于经济性的持续改善，国内独立储能进入快速发展阶段，逐步接棒新能源配储，成为储能市场增长的新动能。其收入来源主要包含三 个方面：一是通过参与电力现货市场实现价差套利；二是提供调频、调峰等辅助服务获取收益；三是以容量电价形式获得稳定补偿。 ◆容量电价补偿为新增变量，主要以三种方式呈现：1）放电度电补偿：以内蒙古为代表，在不考虑辅助服务市场收益下，独立储能IRR可达 10%，前十年容量补偿占收入比重近50%；2）根据功率与时长进行补偿：以甘肃为代表，独立储能IRR可达14%，容量补偿占收入比重 31%；3）容量租赁模式：以云南省为代表，独立储能IRR可达8%，容量租赁占收入比重72%。在以上三种模式下，代表省份独立储能IRR 均可达到央国企项目要求。 ◆国内储能将持续维持高增速。主要原因如下：1）中标规模超预期增长：2025年1–9月期间，储能项目合计中标量达318.4GWh，同比 +19 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 14 日 白银新纪元：风浪与机遇并存 ——解析白银价差矛盾与行情展望 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 报告导读： 本报告深入剖析了白银市场所处的历史性时刻，核心围绕一场史无前例的现货挤仓展开。当前市场的 最大特征在于海外现货的极端紧俏，这具体表现为伦敦银相较纽约银出现历史首次价差倒挂，白银租赁利 率飙升至接近 40%的惊人水平，同时伦敦可流动库存已降至极其危险的低位。这一局面的形成，是过去数年 光伏需求推动下库存持续去化的长期铺垫、美国潜在关税威胁引发囤货套利的事件催化、以及全球投资情 绪与印度季节性买盘共振共同作用的结果。 面对如此极端的市场结构，我们演绎未来两种可能的演变路径。其一，是通过跨市场的物流套利实现再 平衡，即利用打开的出口窗口将白银从纽约或亚洲运往伦敦。然而，此路径受限于美国在关税落地前的出口 意愿不足以及中国自身的库存低位，其进程在很大程度上取决于关键的政策时点。其二，则是通过单边价格 的大幅回调，迫使获利盘了结并释放流动性，从而被动缓解现货矛盾。我们认为，当前可能正处于现货矛盾 的高峰，价差 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are facing a combination of weak current situations and weakening expectations, and steel prices may experience a slight correction [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3,083 yuan/ton and 3,261 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -24 yuan/ton (-0.77%) and -29 yuan/ton (-0.88%). The trading volumes were 1,231,858 hands and 557,390 hands, and the open interests were 1,952,748 hands and 1,422,524 hands, with increases of 26,595 hands and 24,873 hands respectively [1] - **Spot Price Data**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton; hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan steel billet decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of RB2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2601 decreased by 6 yuan/ton. The spread of RB2601 - RB2605 remained unchanged, the spread of HC2601 - HC2605 increased by 50, the spread of HC2601 - RB2601 decreased by 4, the spread of HC2605 - RB2605 increased by 2, and the spot coil - rebar spread decreased by 10 [1] Macro and Industry News - In October 2025, the US announced export controls on relevant items such as rare earths from China, imposing a 100% tariff and implementing export controls on all key software [1][3] - In August 2025, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a 3.3% month - on - month decrease, with an average export price of $698.0/ton, basically unchanged from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a 9.8% year - on - year increase, with an average export price of $699.1/ton, a 10.1% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's steel imports were 50,000 tons, a 10.4% month - on - month increase, and the average import price was $1,653.0/ton, an 8.4% month - on - month decrease. From January to August, the cumulative steel imports were 3.977 million tons, a 14.1% year - on - year decrease, with an average import price of $1,697.7/ton, a 1.5% year - on - year increase [3] - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on October 8, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 36,200 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 14,000 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 37,600 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar increased by 239,600 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 299,200 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 692,300 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 950,600 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 336,400 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 1.6937 million tons [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and that of hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 14 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 豆粕：贸易情绪暂时稳定，震荡 豆一：震荡 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3961 | +3（+0.08%） 3954 | -14（-0.35%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2932 | +8（+0.27%） 2938 +2 | （+0.07%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1008.25 | +1.25（+0.12%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 274.5 -1.1 | n a （-0.40%） | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2970～2980； 现货基差M2601+40/+7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on October 14, 2025, including股指期货, bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, and energy and chemical futures [2]. - The report also presents macro - news and trading tips, as well as the latest trends in the commodity futures market [8][11]. Summary by Directory Futures Market Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strongly volatile on October 14, 2025. For example, IF2512 has resistance levels at 4592 and 4632 points, and support levels at 4549 and 4498 points. In October 2025, it is likely to be weakly and broadly volatile [2][18]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Both the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures are expected to be strongly volatile on October 14, 2025. The ten - year T2512 will attack resistance levels at 108.26 and 108.32 yuan, with support at 108.01 and 107.95 yuan. The thirty - year TL2512 will attack resistance at 114.9 and 115.4 yuan, with support at 114.3 and 113.8 yuan [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold and silver futures are expected to be strongly volatile on October 14, 2025, and will reach new highs. Gold AU2512 will attack resistance at 940.0 and 950.0 yuan/gram, with support at 928.9 and 921.4 yuan/gram. Silver AG2512 will attack resistance at 11800 and 11900 yuan/kg, with support at 11550 and 11490 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper and aluminum futures are expected to be strongly volatile on October 14, 2025. Copper CU2511 will attack resistance at 87000 and 88100 yuan/ton, with support at 85300 and 85000 yuan/ton. Aluminum AL2511 will attack resistance at 21090 and 21210 yuan/ton, with support at 20860 and 20800 yuan/ton. Alumina, nickel, and other base metal futures are expected to be weakly volatile [2][3]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Glass and soda ash futures are expected to be weakly volatile on October 14, 2025. Glass FG601 will test support at 1133 and 1118 yuan/ton, with resistance at 1181 and 1195 yuan/ton. Soda ash SA601 will test support at 1215 and 1200 yuan/ton, with resistance at 1250 and 1258 yuan/ton. Steel, iron ore, and crude oil futures are also expected to be weakly volatile [2][6]. Macro - news and Trading Tips - China has started to charge special port fees on US ships. In September 2025, China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 8% year - on - year, with exports up 8.4% and imports up 7.5%. China's rare - earth exports declined for the third consecutive month in September [8]. - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27 to 30 in Beijing. The 2025 Nobel Economics Prize has been awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt. Fed's Paulson supports two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year [9]. - Economists have raised the growth forecast for the US economy in 2025 and 2026, but expect weak employment growth. In September 2025, China's soybean and iron ore imports reached record highs for the same period [10]. Commodity Futures Market Trends - On October 13, 2025, international precious metal futures rose significantly, with COMEX gold up 3.24% and COMEX silver up 7.47%. US and Brent crude oil futures also rose. London base metals showed mixed performance, with copper rising significantly [11]. - OPEC slightly increased the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day, and kept the 2026 growth forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day. The ILZSG expects a surplus of 91,000 tons of refined lead in 2025 and a larger surplus of 271,000 tons of refined zinc in 2026 [12].

【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17095 | -0.26% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2014.5 | -0.30% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 66594 | 30286 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 13567 | 2032 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 43988 | -807 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 143335 | -3233 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 0 | 10 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -38.22 | -6.22 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | 5 | 45 | 进口升贴水（美 | 107.5 | -2.5 | | | | | 元/吨） | | | | 铅锭现货进口盈亏 | -631.77 | -159.41 | ...