Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The cotton market is continuing its adjustment trend. The domestic cotton spot trading has weakened, and the overall price of pure - cotton yarn has remained stable but with a slight downward shift in the actual transaction focus. The开机率 of inland spinning enterprises has declined slightly, and downstream weaving mills have limited new orders and high inventory of grey cloth, with low acceptance of high - priced yarns. The upward momentum of ICE cotton futures has weakened due to the strengthening of the US dollar. [1][2][3] 3. Key Points by Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2605 closed at 14,760 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.92%, and its overnight price was 14745 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10%. The trading volume was 710,353 lots, a decrease of 84,008 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 1,201,677 lots, an increase of 25,192 lots. - CY2603 closed at 20,765 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.61%, and its overnight price was 20820 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.26%. The trading volume was 10,121 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 16,032 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. - ICE US cotton 3 closed at 64.93 cents/pound with a decline of 0.02%. [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 8,410, an increase of 642 compared to the previous day, and the valid forecast was 1,707, a decrease of 487. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 70, an increase of 10 compared to the previous day, and the valid forecast was 7, an increase of 43. [1] - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,590 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a growth rate of 0.91%. - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a growth rate of 0.91%. - The price in Shandong was 15,891 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.27%. - The price in Hebei was 15,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.30%. - The 3128B index was 15,783 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.47%. - The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 72.94 cents/pound, an increase of 0.66% compared to the previous day. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,025 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a growth rate of 0.02%. [1] - **Spread Data**: - The CF3 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 830 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The trading of domestic cotton spot has weakened. The low - basis - difference spot has decreased, and some cotton merchants have slightly raised the basis by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, with the overall basis center showing an upward trend. [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The overall price of pure - cotton yarn has remained stable, but the actual transaction center has shifted slightly downward, and the overall market trading atmosphere is still weak. Recently, inland spinning enterprises have continuously reduced their operating rates slightly to avoid inventory accumulation risks, while spinning enterprises in Xinjiang still maintain a relatively high operating rate. Downstream weaving mills have limited new orders, high inventory of grey cloth, and low acceptance of high - priced yarns, mainly purchasing small orders based on rigid demand. [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated within a narrow range during the day yesterday, and the strengthening of the US dollar has weakened the upward momentum of ICE cotton futures. [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). [4][5]

Group 1: Report Title and Core Topic - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, with the title "Industrial Silicon: Downstream Production Cuts, Marginal Decline in Demand; Polysilicon: Monitor Factory Quotations" [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - The demand for industrial silicon is experiencing a marginal decline due to downstream production cuts [1] Group 4: Fundamental Data Summary Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,635 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from T-1, 265 yuan from T-5, and up 385 yuan from T-22; its trading volume is 270,076 lots, up 776 lots from T-1, down 190,391 lots from T-5, and up 17,566 lots from T-22; its open interest is 242,469 lots, up 3,592 lots from T-1, 7,858 lots from T-5, and 70,712 lots from T-22 [2] - PS2605 closing price is 49,005 yuan/ton, down 990 yuan from T-1 and 10,360 yuan from T-5; its trading volume is 28,379 lots, down 14,131 lots from T-1 and up 8,460 lots from T-5; its open interest is 48,844 lots, up 14 lots from T-1 and down 23,509 lots from T-5 [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +615 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan from T-1, 265 yuan from T-5, and down 335 yuan from T-22 [2] - Polysilicon spot premium (against N-type re - feed) is +6245 yuan/ton, up 990 yuan from T-1, 12,110 yuan from T-5, and 11,435 yuan from T-22 [2] Price - Xinjiang 99 silicon price is 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T-1 and T-5, and down 50 yuan from T-22; Yunnan Si4210 price is 10000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T-1, T-5, and T-22 [2] - Polysilicon - N-type re - feed price is 54750 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan from T-1, up 1250 yuan from T-5, and 2450 yuan from T-22 [2] Profit - Silicon factory profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 2691.5 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from T-1, 630 yuan from T-5, and 85 yuan from T-22; Silicon factory profit (Yunnan new standard 553) is - 4999 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from T-1, 630 yuan from T-5, and 25 yuan from T-22 [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 10.3 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan from T-1, 1.6 yuan from T-5, and 2.8 yuan from T-22 [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.2 tons, down 0.5 tons from T-5 and 0.9 tons from T-22; Industrial silicon - enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 20.3 tons, up 0.09 tons from T-5 and 2.1 tons from T-22 [2] - Industrial silicon - industry inventory (social inventory + enterprise inventory) is 75.5 tons, down 0.41 tons from T-5 and up 1.18 tons from T-22; Industrial silicon - futures warehouse receipt inventory is 5.6 tons, up 0.1 tons from T-1, 0.2 tons from T-5, and 1.7 tons from T-22 [2] Raw Material Cost - Xinjiang silicon ore price is 320 yuan/ton, unchanged from T-1, T-5, and T-22; Yunnan silicon ore price is 250 yuan/ton, unchanged from T-1 and T-5, and down 20 yuan from T-22 [2] Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy - DMC price is 13850 yuan/ton, unchanged from T-1, up 250 yuan from T-5 and T-22; DMC enterprise profit is 1810 yuan/ton, unchanged from T-1, up 263 yuan from T-5, and 16 yuan from T-22 [2] - ADC12 price is 23950 yuan/ton, unchanged from T-1, up 450 yuan from T-5, and 2450 yuan from T-22; Recycled aluminum enterprise profit is - 350 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from T-1, 60 yuan from T-5, and down 80 yuan from T-22 [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - On the morning of January 11th, Egyptian Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouly attended the unveiling ceremony of the photovoltaic technology manufacturing base invested and built by ELITE Solar in Egypt. The Boda Xinneng Egypt industrial base put into production this time consists of two factories, photovoltaic cells and photovoltaic modules, with an annual production capacity of 4GW, connecting the Middle East, Africa, and European markets [2][4] Group 6: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 0, both indicating a neutral trend [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The implementation of Indonesia's "B50" biodiesel mandatory blending policy depends on the prices of crude oil and crude palm oil [4]. - The momentum of US soybeans is limited, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil [1]. - The POGO (Palm Oil - Gas Oil) spread is expected to narrow [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: Palm oil's day - trading closing price had a 0.62% increase, and night - trading had a - 0.23% change; soybean oil's day - trading closing price had a - 0.10% change, and night - trading had a - 0.03% change; rapeseed oil's day - trading closing price had a 0.41% increase, and night - trading had a - 0.48% change. The Malaysian palm oil main contract had a - 0.68% change during the day and a 0.52% change at night, and CBOT soybean oil main contract had a 1.81% increase [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume increased by 46,791 lots to 558,865 lots, and open interest increased by 21,772 lots to 439,704 lots; soybean oil's trading volume increased by 23,135 lots to 279,777 lots, and open interest increased by 20,236 lots to 709,684 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume decreased by 6,625 lots to 242,364 lots, and open interest decreased by 4,586 lots to 251,744 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 250 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi increased by 150 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil increased by 10 dollars/ton to 1,040 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong is 122 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong is 614 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi is 983 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts is 239 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts is - 792 yuan/ton, palm oil 5 - 9 spread is 100 yuan/ton, soybean oil 5 - 9 spread is 144 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread is 31 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to be between 19.5 million and 19.8 million tons in 2026, down from 20.28 million tons in 2025, and the inventory is expected to be 2 million tons in 2026, down from 3.05 million tons in 2025 [2]. - India's palm oil imports in December were 507,204 tons, lower than 632,341 tons in November; sunflower oil imports were 349,929 tons, higher than 142,953 tons in November; soybean oil imports were 505,112 tons, higher than 370,661 tons in November; total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, higher than 1.18 million tons in November [3][4]. - CBOT soybean futures closed down 1% on Tuesday, hitting a two - and - a - half - month low, due to the USDA's downward adjustment of US soybean export forecasts and upward adjustment of Brazil's soybean production forecasts [5]. - Two more oil tankers were attacked near the CPC terminal on Tuesday, bringing the total number of attacked oil tankers to four [5]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0 [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rubber market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,975 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,140 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The trading volume was 380,256 lots, an increase of 30,564 lots. The position of the 05 contract was 194,674 lots, a decrease of 5,832 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity was 105,590 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. The net short position of the top 20 members was 46,325 lots, a decrease of 239 lots [2]. - **Spread Data**: The spot - futures main spread was - 275 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan; the mixed - futures main spread was - 925 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan. The RU05 - RU09 spread was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,170 US dollars/ton, unchanged; STR20 was 1,935 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; SMR20 was 1,925 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; SIR20 was 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber was 12,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; Qilu cis - butadiene rubber was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai standard rubber was 1900 - 1910 US dollars/ton (near - port) and 1910 - 1915 US dollars/ton (spot), with an increase of 20/15 US dollars; Thai mixed rubber was 1910 - 1915 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; African 10 was 1855 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15/5 US dollars [2]. - **Trend Intensity**: The rubber trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]. 3.2 Industry News - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, or 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [3][4]. - In terms of basis, the spread between the RU and NR main contracts was 3,135 yuan/ton, a month - on - month expansion of 15 yuan/ton; the spread between mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 925 yuan/ton, a month - on - month contraction of 75 yuan/ton [4]. - Recently, some semi - steel tire foreign trade orders have increased, the device capacity has been further released, and some enterprises have moderately increased production, which has boosted the overall capacity utilization rate. The domestic sales performance within the cycle was average, and the enterprise's production increase was to reserve inventory [4].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 14 日 焦炭：高位震荡 焦煤：高位震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | JM2605 | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 1191 | 涨跌(元/吨) -47 | 涨跌幅 -3.8% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | | 12605 | 1745 | -25 | -1.4% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 1292258 | 504497 | -8128 | | | | 12605 | 20384 | 37939 | -1031 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1500 | 1500 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1455 | 1455 | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1209 | 1209 | 0 | | | | 吕梁中疏肥煤 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend intensities and trading suggestions for each commodity [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and foreign gold futures and spot have different performances, and investors have almost erased their bets on a January rate cut. The trend intensity is 1 [7][9] - **Silver**: It has reached a new high. The prices of domestic and foreign silver futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 1 [7] - **Platinum**: It is in range consolidation. The prices of platinum - related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [28][30] - **Palladium**: It has a narrow - range fluctuation. The prices of palladium - related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [28][30] Base Metals - **Copper**: The large increase in LME cancelled warrants supports the price. Although the prices of domestic and foreign copper futures have declined, the cancelled warrant ratio has increased significantly. The trend intensity is 1 [10][13] - **Zinc**: The high - level volatility has increased. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures have increased, and the trend intensity is 1 [14][17] - **Lead**: The reduction of overseas inventory supports the price. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [18][19] - **Tin**: It has broken through the historical high. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures and spot have increased significantly, and the trend intensity is 1 [21][23] - **Aluminum**: It is in a strong - running state. The prices of domestic aluminum futures and related products have different performances, and the trend intensity is 1 [25][26] - **Alumina**: It continues to explore the bottom. The prices of domestic alumina futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [25][26] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The prices of domestic cast aluminum alloy futures and related products have different performances, and the trend intensity is 1 [25][26] - **Nickel**: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and it runs in a wide - range fluctuation. The prices of domestic nickel futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [32][37] - **Stainless Steel**: The increase in nickel - iron raises the oscillation center of gravity, and the market bets on Indonesian policies. The prices of domestic stainless - steel futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [33][37] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It has a strong - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The prices of domestic carbonate - lithium futures and related products have increased, and the trend intensity is 0 [38][40] - **Industrial Silicon**: The downstream production has been cut, and the demand has decreased marginally. The prices of domestic industrial - silicon futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [41][44] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the factory's quotation. The prices of domestic polysilicon futures and related products have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [42][44] - **Iron Ore**: The valuation is relatively high, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up. The prices of domestic iron - ore futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is - 1 [45] - **Rebar**: It oscillates repeatedly. The prices of domestic rebar futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [47][51] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It oscillates repeatedly. The prices of domestic hot - rolled - coil futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [47][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: It has a wide - range oscillation. The prices of domestic silicon - ferrosilicon futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [52][55] - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: It has a wide - range oscillation. The prices of domestic manganese - ferrosilicon futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [52][55] - **Coke**: It oscillates at a high level. The prices of domestic coke futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [56][57] - **Coking Coal**: It oscillates at a high level. The prices of domestic coking - coal futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [56][57] - **Steam Coal**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price has a narrow - range adjustment in the short term. The prices of domestic steam - coal futures and spot have different performances, and no trend intensity is mentioned [58] - **Log**: It oscillates repeatedly. The prices of domestic log futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [60][63] - **Para - Xylene**: The cost support is relatively strong. The prices of domestic para - xylene futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 1 [64][69] - **PTA**: The polyester plans to cut production, and attention should be paid to the implementation strength. The prices of domestic PTA futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 1 [64][69] - **MEG**: The downward valuation space is limited. The prices of domestic MEG futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 1 [64][69] - **Rubber**: It has a wide - range oscillation. The prices of domestic rubber futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [72][73] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillates at a high level. The prices of domestic synthetic - rubber futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [76][78] - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products remains at a low level, and the spot price has increased, with the basis turning positive. The prices of domestic LLDPE futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 0 [79][80] - **PP**: The downstream export rush supports propylene, and the cost support for PP is relatively strong. The prices of domestic PP futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [81][83] - **Caustic Soda**: It oscillates weakly. The prices of domestic caustic - soda futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is - 1 [84][87] - **Pulp**: It oscillates. The prices of domestic pulp futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [89][91] - **Glass**: The price of the raw sheet is stable. The prices of domestic glass futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [94][95] - **Methanol**: It oscillates with support. The prices of domestic methanol futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 1 [97][100] - **Urea**: It oscillates. The prices of domestic urea futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [101][104] - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term. The prices of domestic styrene futures and related products have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [105][108] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The prices of domestic soda - ash futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [109][111] - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and the geopolitical disturbance is strong. The prices of domestic LPG futures have increased, and the trend intensity is 0 [114][119] - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand has tightened, and the trend is strong. The prices of domestic propylene futures have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [115][119] - **PVC**: It oscillates weakly. The prices of domestic PVC futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is - 1 [123][124] - **Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical factor drives up the price, and there is still support below. The prices of domestic fuel - oil futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 2 [126] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly follows the upward trend, and the high - low - sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market has continued to rebound. The prices of domestic low - sulfur - fuel - oil futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 2 [126] Agricultural Products - **Short - Fiber**: It oscillates strongly. The prices of domestic short - fiber futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [144][145] - **Bottle - Chip**: It oscillates strongly. The prices of domestic bottle - chip futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [144][145] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Short positions should be established at high prices. The prices of domestic offset - printing - paper futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is - 1 [147][148] - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates mainly in the short term. The prices of domestic pure - benzene futures and spot have increased, and the trend intensity is 0 [152][154] - **Palm Oil**: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO is expected to narrow. The prices of domestic palm - oil futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [156][161] - **Soybean Oil**: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil. The prices of domestic soybean - oil futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [156][161] - **Soybean Meal**: It may follow US soybeans to digest the USDA report, and the market is weak. The prices of domestic soybean - meal futures and spot have declined, and the trend intensity is - 1 [162][164] - **Soybeans**: The spot price is stable and strong, and the market may oscillate. The prices of domestic soybean futures have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [162][164] - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot price. The prices of domestic corn futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [165][168] - **Sugar**: It runs weakly. The prices of domestic sugar futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is - 1 [169][172] - **Cotton**: It continues the adjustment trend. The prices of domestic cotton futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [174][177] - **Eggs**: The spot market is profitable, but the sentiment in the far - month contracts has weakened. The prices of domestic egg futures have declined, and the trend intensity is 0 [180][181] - **Hogs**: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the release of supply is further postponed. The prices of domestic hog futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [183][185] - **Peanuts**: It oscillates. The prices of domestic peanut futures and spot have different performances, and the trend intensity is 0 [188][191] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It runs weakly. The prices of domestic container - freight - index (European - line) futures have declined, and the trend intensity is - 1 [128][143]

2026年01月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：产业与二级资金博弈，宽幅震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：镍铁抬升震荡重心，盘面博弈印尼政策 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：偏强震荡，关注市场情绪变化 | 4 | | 工业硅：下游减产，需求边际递减 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注工厂报价情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 14 日 镍：产业与二级资金博弈，宽幅震荡运行 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 138,450 | -5,750 | -1,350 | 6,060 | 22,860 | 17,040 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 13,790 | -65 | 395 | 700 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The futures price of LLDPE has continued to rise, leading to short - term tightening of spot liquidity. Spot prices are actively rising, and the basis in East China has strengthened and turned positive. However, downstream product profits are compressed, and the market is affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply, and demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 yesterday was 6766, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The trading volume was 631,718, and the open interest decreased by 13,392. The 05 - contract basis was - 66 (compared to - 87 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 36 (compared to - 35 the previous day) [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6700 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, and 6850 yuan/ton respectively yesterday, up from 6650 yuan/ton, 6650 yuan/ton, and 6780 yuan/ton the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures rally continued, leading to short - term tightening of spot liquidity. PE spot prices actively rose, and the basis in East China strengthened and turned positive. Downstream product profits were compressed, but rigid demand orders were maintained, and the trading volume of traders improved significantly. The overseas offer increased, and the forward import profit was opened, but downstream factories were mostly cautious [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The price of crude oil, the raw material, has stabilized and fluctuated, while the ethylene monomer segment has weakened, and the profits of PE ethylene and ethane processes have improved. The PE futures price has continued to rebound, with most transactions concentrated in the middle reaches, and downstream buyers have not chased the rising price to replenish stocks. The demand for agricultural films in the near - term downstream has weakened, while the rigid demand in the packaging film industry has been maintained. After the recent price decline, the willingness of middle and downstream players to hold positions has weakened, and upstream producers have sold at discounted prices at the end of the year, resulting in a slight reduction in factory inventories, and the basis has been weak. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical has gradually started production, and the planned maintenance in January has decreased compared to the previous month. Some FD has switched back to standard products, and the supply - demand pressure caused by high existing production capacity and weakening demand still needs to be noted in the medium term [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump continues to pressure the Fed and Powell, but it may be difficult to achieve results. If Powell or the Fed yields, it may bring further turmoil to the US and global financial systems [7]. - Tin prices have broken through historical highs and are expected to continue rising, with the first target at 400,000 yuan/ton and the next target around 450,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. - Crude oil may have a 2 - 4 dollars/barrel rebound space in the short - term, but there is still significant downward pressure in the first half of the year, and it may test 50 dollars/barrel [11]. - Double - offset paper has alleviated the warehouse receipt contradiction and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, it is still recommended to short at high prices [13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Pre - market Focus - Trump criticizes Powell and calls for a large - scale interest rate cut. The Fed's independence is under threat, and the market is waiting to see if there will be an interest rate cut this month [7]. 3.2. Top Picks by the Director 3.2.1. Tin - Tin prices have reached a new high. Supply is tight, inventory is low, and price transmission to downstream is smooth. Future prices are expected to rise [8][9]. 3.2.2. Crude Oil - Short - term price may rise due to geopolitical risks and good spot market transactions, but there is downward pressure in the first half of the year [11]. 3.2.3. Double - offset Paper - Warehouse receipt quantity has increased, and the price is expected to decline in the short - term. In the long - term, supply is redundant, and demand is weak [13]. 3.3. Commodity Research Morning Report 3.3.1. Precious Metals - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. - Silver: Reached a new high [15][20]. 3.3.2. Base Metals - Copper: LME cancelled warehouse receipts have increased, supporting the price [23]. - Zinc: High - level volatility has increased [26]. - Lead: Overseas inventory has decreased, supporting the price [29]. - Tin: Broke through the historical high [32]. - Aluminum: Running strongly; Alumina: Continuing to bottom out; Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [36]. - Platinum: Range - bound; Palladium: Narrow - range oscillation [39]. - Nickel: Industry and secondary funds are in a game, with wide - range oscillation [43]. - Stainless steel: Nickel - iron has raised the oscillation center, and the market is betting on Indonesian policies [44]. 3.3.3. Energy Metals - Carbonate lithium: Oscillating strongly, pay attention to market sentiment changes [49]. 3.3.4. Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: Downstream production cuts, and demand is decreasing marginally [52]. - Polysilicon: Pay attention to factory quotes [53]. 3.3.5. Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Valuation is high, be cautious about chasing up [56]. - Rebar: Oscillating repeatedly [58]. - Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating repeatedly [58]. - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation [63]. - Silicomanganese: Wide - range oscillation [63]. - Coke: High - level oscillation [67]. - Coking coal: High - level oscillation [67]. - Steam coal: Supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short - term [69]. 3.3.6. Forestry Products - Logs: Oscillating repeatedly [72]. 3.3.7. Chemicals - p - Xylene: Cost support is strong [76]. - PTA: Polyester plans to cut production, pay attention to the implementation strength [76]. - MEG: Valuation has limited downward space [76]. - Rubber: Wide - range oscillation [84]. - Synthetic rubber: High - level oscillation [88]. - LLDPE: Standard product production ratio remains low, and spot prices are rising [91]. - PP: Downstream export rush supports propylene, and PP cost support is strong [93]. - Caustic soda: Oscillating weakly [96]. - Pulp: Oscillating [101]. - Glass: Original sheet price is stable [106]. - Methanol: Oscillating with support [109]. - Urea: Oscillating [113]. - Styrene: Short - term oscillation [117]. - Soda ash: Spot market changes little [121]. - LPG: Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [126]. - Propylene: Spot supply and demand are tightening, with a strong upward trend [127]. - PVC: Oscillating weakly [135]. - Fuel oil: Geopolitical factors drive up the price, and there is still support below [138]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Following the rise, the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market continues to rebound [138]. 3.3.8. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): Running weakly [140]. 3.3.9. Textiles - Short - fiber: Oscillating strongly, hold long TA and short PF positions [157]. - Bottle chips: Oscillating strongly, hold long - short spread positions [157]. 3.3.10. Paper Products - Offset printing paper: Short at high prices [160]. 3.3.11. Agricultural Products - Pure benzene: Short - term oscillation [165]. - Palm oil: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and POGO is expected to shrink [169]. - Soybean oil: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, pay attention to the spill - over effect of crude oil [169]. - Soybean meal: May follow US soybeans to digest the USDA report, and the market is weak [175]. - Soybeans: Spot prices are stable and strong, and the market may oscillate [175]. - Corn: Pay attention to spot prices [178]. - Sugar: Running weakly [182]. - Cotton: Continuing the adjustment trend [186]. - Eggs: Spot is profitable, and the sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [192]. - Hogs: Demand has negative feedback, and supply release is postponed [195]. - Peanuts: Oscillating [199].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides investment views and strategies for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The views range from valuation concerns and caution in chasing prices for iron ore to different types of price oscillations (repeated, wide, high-level) for other commodities, and a short-term narrow price adjustment for thermal coal [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 819.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.36%. The open interest of I2605 was 653,307 lots, a decrease of 1,527 lots. Imported and domestic ore spot prices mostly declined slightly, with the base price and spreads showing minor changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: The RB2605 rebar futures closed at 3,158 yuan/ton, unchanged, and HC2605 hot-rolled coil futures closed at 3,303 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.09%. Rebar trading volume was 837,879 lots, and open interest decreased by 38,760 lots; hot-rolled coil trading volume was 404,061 lots, and open interest increased by 12,752 lots. Spot prices in various regions showed minor fluctuations [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 8, steel output increased, total inventory of rebar rose while that of hot-rolled coil decreased, and apparent demand for both declined. In late December 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data showed mixed trends, and the government implemented export license management for some steel products. In October 2025, China's steel imports decreased in quantity and price [7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both rebar and hot-rolled coil had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different changes, with trading volumes and open interests varying. Spot prices of silicon-manganese increased, and manganese ore prices also rose. Price differences such as basis, near-far month spreads, and cross-variety spreads changed accordingly [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Iron alloy prices in different regions had adjustments, and major manganese ore suppliers announced increased prices for February 2026 shipments. A large steel group increased its silicon-manganese procurement in January [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The JM2605 coking coal futures closed at 1,191 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 3.8%, and J2605 coke futures closed at 1,745 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 1.4%. Trading volumes and open interests decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, with some minor changes. Price differences such as basis and spreads also changed [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 13, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed an increase in the price of low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi, and the port coke spot market was weak [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both coke and coking coal had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Thermal Coal - **Price and Position Data**: Prices of thermal coal in production areas, ports, and overseas markets showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. The January long-term agreement prices for Shanxi and Shaanxi also decreased [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, the PPI decline narrowed, and the CPI increase expanded. There were market rumors about the withdrawal arrangement of coal supply guarantee and increased production capacity, and Indonesia planned to tighten its coal production quota in 2026 [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: No trend intensity is provided in the report. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: Log futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spot prices showed various changes, with some prices remaining stable and others having minor fluctuations. Price differences such as basis and spreads also changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's Composite PMI in December 2025 was 51.3, indicating further growth in the total production and operation of Chinese enterprises [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23].