Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - In the week of January 20 - 23, 2026, US soybean futures prices rebounded slightly due to positive factors such as China - US official talks, dry weather in Argentine production areas, and a good weekly export sales report. The weekly increase of the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans was 1.07%, and that of the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal was 3.52% [1]. - In the week of January 19 - 23, 2026, domestic soybean meal futures prices rebounded and fluctuated, and soybean No.1 futures prices rose slightly. The soybean meal price increase was driven by the resolution of the China - Canada trade issue and the rise in US soybean prices. The soybean No.1 price increase was due to the stable - to - strong spot price and the improved sentiment in the soybean market. The weekly increase of the main May 2026 contract of soybean meal was 0.88%, and that of the main May 2026 contract of soybean No.1 was 0.93% [1]. - In the week of January 26 - 30, 2026, it is expected that the futures prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No.1 will operate within a range. For soybean meal, the dry and hot weather in Argentine production areas has a positive impact, while the expected bumper harvest in Brazil limits the price rebound space. For soybean No.1, the spot price is stable, and the futures price is affected by the overall sentiment in the soybean market and policy sentiment [5]. Group 3: Summary of International Soybean Market Fundamentals - In the week of January 15, 2026, the net sales of US soybeans increased month - on - month, which is a positive factor. The weekly net sales of the current 2025/26 marketing year were about 245 million tons, and the total net sales of the current and next marketing years were about 246 million tons. The net sales to China in the current 2025/26 crop year were about 130 million tons, with a cumulative sales of about 942 million tons [1]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased slightly week - on - week, which is a positive factor. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery decreased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost increased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit decreased week - on - week [1]. - The early harvest of Brazilian soybeans has a limited impact for now. As of the week of January 15, 2026, the harvest progress of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 2%, compared with 0.6% the previous week and 1.7% in the same period last year. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso is leading, while that in Paraná is behind the historical average [1]. - According to the weather forecast on January 23, 2026, in the next two weeks (January 24 - February 7, 2026), the precipitation and temperature in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil are basically normal (less precipitation and slightly higher temperature in Rio Grande do Sul), and the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina is less and the temperature is higher. The dry and hot weather in Argentine production areas has a positive impact and needs continuous attention [1]. Group 4: Summary of Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - In the week of January 19 - 23, 2026, the domestic soybean meal spot price decreased slightly. The trading volume decreased week - on - week, with the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills at about 190,000 tons, compared with about 670,000 tons the previous week [2][3]. - The提货 volume increased week - on - week, with the average daily提货 volume of major oil mills at about 188,000 tons, compared with about 186,000 tons the previous week [3]. - The basis of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average weekly basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 347 yuan/ton, compared with about 372 yuan/ton the previous week and about 300 yuan/ton in the same period last year [3]. - The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 16, 2026, the inventory of mainstream oil mills was about 840,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of about 9% and a year - on - year increase of about 68% [3]. - The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the weekly soybean crushing volume in China was about 2.1 million tons, with an operating rate of about 58%. Next week (January 24 - 30, 2026), the expected soybean crushing volume is about 2.38 million tons, with an operating rate of 65% [3]. Group 5: Summary of Domestic Soybean No.1 Spot Market - In the week of January 19 - 23, 2026, the domestic soybean No.1 spot price was stable - to - strong. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some northeastern regions was in the range of 4,280 - 4,380 yuan/ton, the purchase price in some inland regions was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, and the selling price of edible soybeans in the sales areas was in the range of 4,660 - 4,840 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [4]. - The reluctance of farmers in the northeastern production areas to sell has eased, and some direct - affiliated warehouses have completed the purchase of domestic soybeans. Most traders are cautiously waiting and selling their inventories to lock in profits [4]. - There is a replenishment demand in the sales areas, and the soybean price may rise to catch up. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand side has a replenishment demand, and there is a possibility of a price increase in the market [4].

国泰君安期货·君研海外 境外权益（港美股）周度策略报告 国泰君安期货研究所· 海外研究 戴璐 Z0021475 联系人 杨藤 F03151619 日期：2026年1月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 美股：本周地缘风波引发美股波动，能源板块领涨 本周地缘风波引发美股波动，随后TACO（标普500和VIX均呈现V字形反转） 地缘风波助推下，本周美股能源板块领涨 u 上周六特朗普威胁要对支持格陵兰的8个欧洲国家加征关税，随即引发美股在周二触发年内的最大单日调整。而周三特朗普又宣布取消加 征关税引发"TACO交易"，市场随即回补周内跌幅。地缘政治风险溢价扩大，能源板块本周领涨。 资料来源：彭博，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 美股：下周迎来"超级周" ，市场主线回归宏观与财报预期差 标普500成分股：年初至今涨幅前12的标的（存储和半导体设备为代表的硬件龙头显著领涨全市场） | 序号 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今▼ | 时间 | 成交额 | ...

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2026年1月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：高位震荡，边际仍有偏向上动能 ◆ 沪铝目前在24000-25000区间内偏盘整，近期微观供需持续羸弱，但宏观风偏整体乐观，尽管阶段性有欧美贸易战的 扰动，但随后伴随特朗普TACO交易再来，短期地缘政治担忧亦很快消散，再叠加美国经济数据强劲，也提振了风险 偏好，美股亦收复本周上半旬失地。传统大金属亦跟随市场风偏向好，而进一步获取了边际向上动能。后续市场应 持续关注以ETF等指数类为代表的配置资金持续进入有色市场的流量变化。 ◆ 短期周度级别的微观需求上，仍偏弱。截至1月22日，铝锭社库较上周累库1.9万吨至76.8万吨。截至1月23日， SMM华东现货贴水小幅收窄至-150元/吨，华南现货贴水亦收窄至-110元/吨。下游方面，截至1月23日铝板带箔周度 总产量环比继续回落，2026年初迄今累计同比下降-1.31%；截至1月22日，铝型材开工环 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The cost and demand are in a game, and steel prices will fluctuate widely [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Fundamental Analysis - **Macro Environment**: The central economic work conference mentioned "anti-involution" again. The special commentator of Qiushi magazine proposed to improve and stabilize the real estate market expectations, and the overall macro environment is warm [5][8] - **Black Industry Chain**: Iron water production is expected to stop falling and then fluctuate upwards. Attention should be paid to hot-rolled coil inventory. The supply and demand pattern of steel is loose, but the cost supports the steel prices to fluctuate widely. Technically, the black chain index, rebar, hot-rolled coil, and coke contracts face the pressure of previous highs, and chasing up may need to wait for the price to break through [5][9][11] Rebar Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: The current situation is weak while the expectation is strong, and the basis and spread are in a reverse arbitrage [14] - **Demand**: New home sales remain at a low level, and market confidence is still low. The traditional off-season leads to a decline in demand [19][22][23] - **MS Weekly Data**: Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is healthy. The long and short process supply and inventory information is also provided [24][26] - **Production Profit**: Steel mills' resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the disk profit [29] Hot-rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: The current situation is weak while the expectation is strong, and the basis and spread are in a reverse arbitrage [34] - **Demand**: Demand is flat. It is in the traditional off-season, and demand is falling. However, exports remain at a high level through price-for-volume strategy [39][40] - **MS Weekly Data**: Hot-rolled coil inventory is high, and production is cut to reduce inventory. The production is maintained at a low level [45][46] - **Production Profit**: Steel mills' resumption of production and restocking expectations lead to a narrowing of the disk profit [48] Variety Regional Difference - The report shows the regional price differences of rebar, cold-rolled coil, hot-rolled coil, and medium-thick plate [58][59][61][62][64] Cold-rolled Coil and Medium-thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report provides the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold-rolled coil and medium-thick plate [65][66]

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2026年1月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：成本预期上移，价格重心震荡抬升 | 基本面 | 条 目 | | | | | 硅铁(宁夏） | | | | | | 锰硅 | | （内蒙古） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 当期值 | | 环 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | | 当期值 | | 环 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | 供 应 | 周产量 | （周） | 9 . | 84 | -0 . | 30% | -8 . | 80% | | 19 . | 32 | | 0 . | 29% | -4 . | 05% | | | 进口数量 | ...

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 1 月 25 日 生猪：旺季需求预期将落地，供应矛盾显现 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（1.19-1.25） 现货市场，生猪价格震荡调整。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 27.35 元/公斤（上周 25.3 元/公斤），本周河南 生猪价格 13.28 元/公斤（上周 13.18 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1559 元/头（上周 1559 元/ 头）。供应端，集团企业恢复计划出栏量，南北方散户仍有惜售情绪，出栏意愿增量；需求端，下游屠宰 旺季亏损，宰量整体下降。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.5KG（上周 124.58KG），出栏 均重环比下降 0.06%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格弱势运行。本周生猪期货 LH2603 合约最高价为 12140 元/吨，最低价为 11400 元/吨，收盘价为 11565 元/吨（上周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the lithium carbonate futures prices increased significantly, breaking through the previous high, with the 2605 contract closing at 181,520 yuan/ton (a weekly increase of 35,320 yuan/ton), the 2607 contract closing at 182,640 yuan/ton (a weekly increase of 35,700 yuan/ton), and the spot price rising 13,000 yuan/ton to 171,000 yuan/ton [1]. - The de - stocking pattern continues, and overseas mining costs have risen significantly. The new mining royalty policy in Nigeria has increased the mining cost of lithium ore. The domestic weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 399 tons to 22,217 tons. This week, the shipment volume of Australian ore increased by 49,000 tons to 107,000 tons, while the shipment volume of Chilean lithium salt decreased by 500 tons to 3,840 tons [2]. - Short - term demand is strong, and the power terminal is waiting to recover. The actual production reduction of cathode material factories is limited, and the demand for export rush continues to be released. Overseas demand is expected to improve marginally, while domestic new energy vehicle domestic demand is still weak in the short term. The energy storage industry maintains high prosperity [2]. - This week, lithium carbonate continued to be destocked, with the industry inventory dropping by 783 tons to 108,896 tons, and the inventory transferred to downstream. The number of newly registered futures warehouse receipts increased by 698 to 28,156 [3]. - The core logic of strong reality and expectations remains unchanged. The supply is expected to contract marginally, and the demand shows the characteristic of “not being in the off - season”. However, potential demand feedback risks and the risk of phased correction caused by long - position profit - taking need to be monitored [4]. - For unilateral trading, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 170,000 to 200,000 yuan/ton. For inter - period trading, it is recommended to do positive spreads as the near - term supply and demand are tight. For hedging, due to large fluctuations, upstream and downstream enterprises are advised to hedge with options [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - The report presents figures on the price difference between lithium carbonate spot and futures, and the inter - period price difference of lithium carbonate futures, sourced from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Side (Lithium Ore) - Figures show the processing spot and disk profits of spodumene concentrate, the average price trend of spodumene concentrate, the monthly import volume and price of lithium concentrate, and the monthly import volume and price of Australian lithium concentrate, with data from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [10][12]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - Stream Consumption - Side (Lithium Salt Products) - Multiple figures display various prices of lithium carbonate products, such as the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in East China, the price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price trends of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the processing cost of converting industrial - grade to battery - grade lithium carbonate and the futures discount cost, etc. It also includes data on the monthly production, import and export volume, inventory, etc. of lithium carbonate, all sourced from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [14][19][20]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Side (Lithium Batteries and Materials) - Figures show the monthly production and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of ternary materials, the import and export volume of ternary materials, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, and the production of various types of domestic power lithium batteries and lithium batteries, with data from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [27][28][30].

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2026年01月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 06 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 07 锡周报 铂金：交易重心成功上移，钯金：跟随上涨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 CONTENTS 01 黄金：上调目标位至5500 白银：关注整数位压力 02 03 铜：美元回落和长期基本面向好，支撑价格持续偏强 铝：高位震荡，边际仍有偏向上动能 氧化铝：底部小盘整，仍持续持有高位空思路 04 铸造铝合金：价格高位震荡，下游逢低补库 05 锌：供应偏弱， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views LPG - Short - term: The market is strongly influenced by geopolitical dynamics, with a positive sentiment. The supply is temporarily tight due to factors like port weather and geopolitical concerns, while demand remains firm with rigid support from combustion demand. - Medium - to - long - term: As Middle - East maintenance ends and the impact of US fog weakens, supply is expected to recover. With the PDH in deep losses, the demand growth is limited, leading to a downward - trending market [3][4]. Propylene - Next week: The propylene market will remain in a tight - balance situation. Although the upward momentum may slow down due to the compression of downstream profit margins, the strong demand from PO, butanol, etc., will keep the price from falling easily [6]. 3. Summary by Section LPG Part Price & Spread - International propane prices show a strong upward trend, with the FEI and CP indices rising. The domestic LPG price has a mixed performance, with the central price of civil gas falling and the price of ether - post - C4 relatively stable. The lowest deliverable product has changed to East - China civil gas [9][12]. Supply - Domestic LPG production: The total commercial volume of LPG is 529,000 tons, a 2.1% increase from last week. The commercial volume of civil gas is 228,000 tons (+5.8%), and the commercial volume of ether - post - C4 is 164,000 tons (-1.7%). - International supply: US LPG shipments to Asia have increased, while Middle - East shipments are tight [38][47][58]. Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: The PDH operating rate has dropped significantly to 62% (-11%), while the MTBE operating rate has slightly improved. - Inventory: The refinery inventory of LPG is at a neutral level compared to the same period in 2025. The port inventory shows different trends, with inventory accumulation in South - China and Shandong ports and inventory reduction in East - China ports [73][74][96]. Balance Sheet - In the first quarter, propane is expected to remain seasonally strong. In the second quarter, as the supply returns to normal and production capacity increases, the tight - supply situation is expected to ease [107]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - Upstream prices: Brent, WTI, and other prices have changed slightly. Propane prices have risen, and the profit margins of PDH and other processes have been further compressed. - Propylene prices: International and domestic prices have generally increased, and the import window is partially open. - Downstream prices and profits: The prices and profit margins of different downstream products show different trends, with some products' profit margins being compressed and some showing improvement [110][113][123]. Balance Sheet - Supply: Due to the maintenance of PDH and MTO units, the supply has gradually tightened. - Demand: Driven by policies, the PO procurement demand remains strong. In January, the market is in a tight - balance state, and in mid - to - late February, the supply - demand situation may become more relaxed [154]. Supply - Overall upstream operating rate: It is 71.4% (-3.8%). The operating rate of refineries has changed slightly, with the main - refinery operating rate increasing to 78% and the local - refinery operating rate slightly decreasing to 54%. The operating rate of PDH has dropped significantly to 62.3% (-10.8%), and the profit has been further compressed. The operating rate of MTO has decreased to 84.3% (-1.5%) [165][185][191]. Demand - PP: The operating rate is 76.0% (+0.4%), and the profit margins of different production processes show different trends. Some units are expected to restart next week, which may increase the operating rate. - PP powder: The operating rate is 30.7% (-0.8%), and the profit margin has slightly improved. - PO: The operating rate is 73.0% (+0.5%), and the profit margin has decreased significantly. - Acrylonitrile: The operating rate is 74.7% (-3.5%), and the profit margin has slightly decreased. - Acrylic acid: The operating rate is 81.6% (-0.5%), and the profit margin has slightly increased. - Butanol: The operating rate is 87.5% (0.1%), and the profit margin has increased significantly. - Octanol: The operating rate is 96.0% (+2.0%), and the profit margin has increased significantly. - Phenol - acetone: The operating rate is 85.5% (-3.5%), and the profit margin has decreased. - ECH: The operating rate is 58.05% (+4.30%), and the profit margin and price have increased [206][226][239]. Downstream Inventory - PP and powder: The inventory of PP production enterprises has slightly increased, while the inventory of traders and powder has slightly decreased. - Other downstream products: The inventory of acrylonitrile, phenol, and other products shows different trends [294][296].

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2026年1月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 黄金：上调目标位至5500；白银：关注整数位压力 价格区间：1050-1200元/克、25000-26000元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升7.27%，伦敦银回升9.03%。金银比从前周的50.6回落至50.3，10年期TIPS回升至1.92%，10年期名义利率回落至4.24%（2 年期3.6%），美元指数录得97.5。 ◆ 本周地缘政治进一步升级，目前"亚伯拉罕·林肯"号航母及其打击群正在向波斯湾推进，其核心任务是制定针对伊朗的一揽子打击方案，等待 总统的最终批准。这表明美国对伊朗的强硬姿态并非仅仅停留在口头威胁，而已进入实质性的军事准备阶段。同 ...