Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Gold: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations [2] - Silver: Declines from a high level [2] - Copper: The implementation of US copper import tariffs puts pressure on prices [2] - Zinc: Narrow - range fluctuations [2] - Lead: Inventory increase puts pressure on prices [2] - Tin: Range - bound fluctuations [2] - Aluminum: Slight fluctuations; Alumina: Prices weaken; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity [2] - Stainless steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 773.78 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the night - closing price was 770.68 with a decline of - 0.32%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9192 with a decline of - 0.03%, and the night - closing price was 9090.00 with a decline of - 1.32%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts also changed [5]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: The Fed has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, with two voting members supporting rate cuts. China plans to hold the 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee. Trump imposes a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper [5][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is - 1, and silver trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [9]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,930 with a daily increase of 0.11%, and the night - closing price was 78700 with a decline of - 0.29%. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed, and there were also changes in spot prices and spreads [11]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Trump imposes a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper, excluding cathode copper and refined copper. Freeport - McMoRan has not seen the details of the US copper import tariff plan [10][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22670 with a daily increase of 0.07%, and the closing price of LME Zinc 3M was 2814.5 with a daily increase of 0.32%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various spreads [14]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Trump will impose a 25% tariff on India, and the US Q2 GDP growth is better than expected [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [16]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16890 with a decline of - 0.06%, and the closing price of LME Lead 3M was 2020 with a daily increase of 0.12%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and inventory [17]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and Trump has trade - related actions [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 267,870 with a daily increase of 0.45%, and the closing price of LME Tin 3M was 33,410 with a decline of - 0.62%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and inventory [21]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: There are various macro - economic events such as Fed's interest - rate decision and Trump's tariff policies [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [24]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For aluminum, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20625, and there were changes in trading volume, positions, and various spreads. For alumina, the closing price of the main contract was 3326, and for cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract was 20070 [26]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: There are macro - economic events such as the Politburo meeting and Fed's interest - rate decision [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is - 1, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 121,720, and the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,920. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various spreads in the industrial chain [29]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: There are industry - related events such as the potential halt of nickel exports from Ontario to the US and production - related issues in Indonesian nickel - iron smelters [29][30][31] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless steel trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [33]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 31 日 LPG：底部支撑走强 丙烯：原料升贴水走强 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 4,052 | 0.60% | 4,054 | 0.05% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,471 | 0.97% | 4,486 | 0.34% | | | PL2601 | 6,570 | -0.05% | 6,567 | -0.05% | | | PL2602 | 6,627 | -0.21% | 6,629 | 0.03% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 75,690 | -11944 | 83,675 | -3777 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2510 | 20,717 | -6572 | 65,447 | 1872 | | | PL2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 31, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity's trend is affected by factors such as macro - economic policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] - **Silver**: Experiences a high - level decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: The implementation of US copper import tariffs puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Shows a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][15][17] - **Lead**: An increase in inventory puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][21][25] - **Aluminum**: Experiences a slight oscillation; Alumina's price weakens; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum's trend strength is 0, alumina's is - 1, and casting aluminum alloy's is 0 [2][27][29] - **Nickel**: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Has a wide - range oscillation, and the mine - end disturbance has not materialized, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][35][37] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sentiment weakens, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] Energy - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, shows a relatively strong oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The sentiment is realized, with a wide - range oscillation. Both have a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55] - **Power Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price stabilizes with an oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60] - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend continues, and it remains strong in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's futures price shows a relatively strong oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [2][4][52] Chemicals - **PTA**: Supported by cost, with a positive spread in monthly contracts [2] - **MEG**: The unilateral trend remains weak, with a reverse spread in monthly contracts [2] - **Rubber**: Oscillates [2][32] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Weak in the short - term, but the downside space narrows [2][34] - **Asphalt**: Follows the strong upward trend of crude oil with small - step increases [2][36] - **LLDPE**: The trend still faces pressure [2][38] - **PP**: The spot price oscillates with light trading volume [2][39] - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to delivery pressure [2][40] - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates weakly [2][41] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet remains stable [2][43] - **Methanol**: Oscillates under pressure [2][44] - **Urea**: The pressure gradually increases [2][46] - **Styrene**: Profits are compressed [2][48] - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [4][49] - **PVC**: Weakly oscillates in the short - term [4][50] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Supported in the short - term by the positive sentiment of crude oil and macro - economy [4][59] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress [4][59] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans close lower, limiting the rebound of domestic soybean meal [4][61] - **Soybean**: Oscillates weakly [4][61] - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [4][63] - **Sugar**: Oscillates within an interval [4][65] - **Cotton**: The sentiment cools down, and Zhengzhou cotton futures decline [4][66] - **Eggs**: The spot price weakens [4][68] - **Hogs**: Attention should be paid to whether the early - month spot expectations can be realized [4][69] - **Peanuts**: The old crop has support at the bottom [4][70] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 short positions [4][53] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Oscillate in the short - term [4][56] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillates at a low level with limited upward momentum [4][57] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillates relatively strongly [4][58] - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][61]

Summary of Politburo Meeting Content and Review 1. Meeting Summaries - **2025/7/30 Meeting**: China's economy has made new achievements in high - quality development, with major economic indicators performing well, new - quality productivity actively developing, and reform and opening - up deepening. However, it still faces risks and challenges. The focus is on maintaining policy continuity and flexibility, stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and promoting domestic and international double - circulation to achieve the "14th Five - Year Plan" finalization [2]. - **2025/4/25 Meeting**: The economy shows a positive trend, but the foundation for continuous recovery needs further consolidation. Policies should be more actively implemented, and efforts should be made to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and deal with external impacts [2]. - **2024/12/9 Meeting**: The economy has run steadily with progress, and the main goals of economic and social development for the year will be smoothly achieved. Next year, it is necessary to strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, promote high - quality development, and lay a solid foundation for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [2]. 2. Policy Directions Macroeconomic Policy - **General Tone**: All meetings emphasize the need for proactive macro - policies. In 2025/7/30 and 2025/4/25, it is about implementing and making full use of active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. In 2024/12/9, it focuses on super - conventional counter - cyclical adjustment [2]. - **Fiscal Policy**: All meetings stress positive fiscal policies, including accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds and ensuring the "three guarantees" at the grass - roots level [2]. - **Monetary Policy**: Meetings advocate maintaining liquidity, with 2025/4/25 specifically mentioning timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and all meetings highlighting support for key areas through structural monetary policy tools [2]. Industry Policy - **New - Quality Productivity**: Promote the development of new - quality productivity through technological innovation and industry - innovation integration, and cultivate emerging pillar industries [2]. - **Competition Order**: Regulate competition order, manage over - capacity in key industries, and standardize local investment promotion [2]. Domestic Demand Expansion - **Consumption**: Stimulate consumption through various means such as increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups, developing service consumption, and implementing consumption promotion campaigns [2]. - **Investment**: Promote "two - major" construction, expand effective investment, and stimulate private investment [2]. Risk Resolution - All meetings stress the need to prevent and resolve key - area risks, especially local government debt risks, and ensure no systemic risks [2]. Other Key Areas - **Reform and Opening - up**: Deepen reform, expand high - level opening - up, and stabilize foreign trade and investment [2]. - **Agriculture, Rural Areas, and Farmers**: Strengthen the "three rural" work, stabilize agricultural product prices, and promote rural development [2]. - **Employment**: Implement employment - priority policies to promote the employment of key groups [2]. - **Real Estate**: Promote the stable development of the real estate market and build a new development model [2]. - **Capital Market**: Strengthen the attractiveness and stability of the capital market [2].

2025 年 07 月 31 日 豆粕：美豆收跌，连粕反弹受限 豆一：偏弱震荡 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4153 | +17（-0.41%） 4126 -26（-0.63%） | | 货 期 | （元/吨） DCE豆粕2509 | 3010 | +36（+1.21%） +0（+0.00%） 3001 | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 996 | -12.25（-1.21%） | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 274.3 | n a -2.0（-0.72%） | | | | | （43%） 豆粕 | | | | 2900～2940， M2509+30/+40/+60， | 较昨持平至+50； 8月10日前提货M2509-100， 持平； 8-9月 持平或-10； 9月M2509+0/+50， 持平； 10月M2601+30/+70， | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 持平； | 10-11月M2601+30/+60/+80/+110， 持平 ...

2025 年 07 月 31 日 铜：美国铜进口关税落地，价格承压 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,930 | 0.11% | 78700 | -0.29% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,730 | -0.74% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 55,888 | -9,516 | 171,689 | -2,055 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 16,032 | 4,957 | 271,000 | 1,801 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 19,973 | 1,890 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 136,850 | 9,225 | 14.16% | -1.04% | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 30, the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed performance, with IF up 0.04%, IH up 0.32%, IC down 0.43%, and IM down 0.44%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded on the trading day, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The total trading volume and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased [1][2]. - The trends of IF and IH have a strength of 1, while those of IC and IM also have a strength of 1. The取值 range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval [6]. - The market was affected by multiple factors, including the decisions of the Politburo meeting, the党外人士座谈会, and Powell's remarks on interest rates. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.62%. A - shares had a full - day trading volume of 1.87 trillion yuan, up from 1.83 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing prices of IF2508, IF2509, IF2512, and IF2603 were 4147, 4136.4, 4105.2, and 4074.4 respectively, with increases of 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.08%, and 0.13%. The trading volumes were 35444, 81931, 15870, and 4786 respectively, with increases of 11217, 23415, 5044, and 692. The positions were 46692, 162604, 54981, and 10426 respectively, with increases of 4803, 9027, 435, and 918. The basis was - 4.24, - 14.84, - 46.04, and - 76.84 respectively [1]. - **IH Series**: The closing prices of IH2508, IH2509, IH2512, and IH2603 were 2821.4, 2820, 2820.2, and 2821.6 respectively, with increases of 0.32%, 0.28%, 0.23%, and 0.26%. The trading volumes were 16238, 46511, 6381, and 1819 respectively, with increases of 5126, 15965, 2807, and 904. The positions were 20777, 64619, 15228, and 2657 respectively, with increases of 2883, 4265, 841, and 570. The basis was 2.05, 0.65, 0.85, and 2.25 respectively [1]. - **IC Series**: The closing prices of IC2508, IC2509, IC2512, and IC2603 were 6271.2, 6215.4, 6079, and 5955.2 respectively, with decreases of 0.43%, 0.42%, 0.36%, and 0.31%. The trading volumes were 26089, 58280, 15042, and 5843 respectively, with increases of 3022, 11610, 1455, and 1074. The positions were 51234, 108507, 57093, and 13089 respectively, with changes of + 2292, + 3193, - 964, and + 621. The basis was - 43.49, - 99.29, - 235.69, and - 359.49 respectively [1]. - **IM Series**: The closing prices of IM2508, IM2509, IM2512, and IM2603 were 6675.6, 6604.2, 6415.2, and 6249.8 respectively, with decreases of 0.44%, 0.43%, 0.43%, and 0.43%. The trading volumes were 46466, 144840, 31250, and 8723 respectively, with increases of 7945, 28437, 4954, and 1394. The positions were 64269, 185002, 78570, and 18656 respectively, with increases of 4761, 79688, 75, and 1303. The basis was - 42.88, - 114.28, - 303.28, and - 468.68 respectively [1]. 2. Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 40368 lots, IH by 24802 lots, IC by 17161 lots, and IM by 42730 lots [2]. - **Position**: The total positions of IF increased by 15183 lots, IH by 8559 lots, IC by 5142 lots, and IM by 16585 lots [2]. 3. Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF Series**: For IF2508, long - order increase was 5738, and short - order increase was 4801; for IF2509, long - order increase was 7911, and short - order increase was 6415; for IF2512, long - order increase was 1200, and short - order increase was 313; for IF2603, long - order increase was 669, and short - order increase was 781 [5]. - **IH Series**: For IH2508, long - order increase was 2480, and short - order increase was 2467; for IH2509, long - order increase was 4125, and short - order increase was 3941; for IH2512, long - order increase was 962, and short - order increase was 919; for IH2603, data was not announced [5]. - **IC Series**: For IC2508, long - order increase was 2097, and short - order increase was 2029; for IC2509, long - order increase was 2973, and short - order increase was 2564; for IC2512, long - order increase was - 376, and short - order increase was - 849; for IC2603, long - order increase was 795, and short - order increase was 456 [5]. - **IM Series**: For IM2508, long - order increase was 4501; for IM2509, long - order increase was 9904, and short - order increase was 7544; for IM2512, long - order increase was 693, and short - order increase was 1559; for IM2603, data was not announced [5]. 4. Important Driving Factors - **Policy - related**: The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, promoting domestic and international dual - circulation, and achieving the goals of economic and social development for the year. The党外人士座谈会 also focused on promoting economic development in the second half of the year [6][7]. - **International Factor**: Powell did not give guidance on a September interest - rate cut, stating that it was too early to determine, and that the current interest - rate level was appropriate given the uncertainties in tariffs and inflation. He also said the job market was not weakening [7].

2025 年 7 月 31 日 运指数(欧线):10空单 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0021502 郑玉洁 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:集运指数(欧线)基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2508 | 2.139.0 | 1.59% | 1.302 | 5.597 | -329 | 0.23 | 0. 51 | | | EC2510 | 1.468.7 | -0. 45% | 66, 330 | 54, 874 | 4, 148 | 1.21 | 0.82 | | | EC2512 | 1. 738. 0 | 0. 20% | 5.748 | 8. 505 | 374 | 0. 68 | 0. 49 | | | | 本期 | | 2025/7/28 | | 单位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Lead inventories are increasing, putting pressure on prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,890 yuan/ton, down 0.06%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,020 dollars/ton, up 0.12% [1] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 37,318 lots, a decrease of 10,660 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 4,047 lots, a decrease of 1,220 lots [1] - The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 66,741 lots, an increase of 2,207 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 142,798 lots, a decrease of 153 lots [1] - The premium/discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -31.8 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.49 dollars/ton [1] - The PB00 - PB01 spread was -20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import premium was 105 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -755.74 yuan/ton, an increase of 34.29 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous third contract was -689.99 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/ton [1] - The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 61,934 tons, an increase of 1,002 tons; the LME lead inventory was 276,375 tons, an increase of 6,025 tons [1] - The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 71,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons [1] - The price of recycled refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -502 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 News - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, but two voting members support rate cuts, pointing out that economic growth has slowed. Powell did not give guidance on a September rate cut, emphasizing uncertainties in tariffs and inflation and stating that the job market has not weakened [2] - Trump said the US will impose a 25% tariff and "punishment" on India, referring to India as a major buyer of Russian energy. Trump announced a comprehensive trade agreement with South Korea, imposing a 15% tariff, and South Korea will provide the US with $350 billion in investment, which will be owned and controlled by the US. Trump signed an executive order to impose a 50% tariff on Brazil [2] - In 2024, CMOC added 1.5145 million tons of lead, zinc, and copper metal resources and 24 tons of gold [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]

2025 年 7 月 31 日 硅铁：宏观情绪扰动，偏弱震荡 锰硅：宏观情绪扰动，偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2509 | 6008 | -102 | 743,432 | 196,907 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2510 | 5990 | -102 | 63,281 | 41,950 | | | 锰硅2509 | 6116 | -96 | 728,699 | 334,179 | | | 锰硅2510 | 6122 | -96 | 38,867 | 24,737 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5650 | +100.0 | 元/吨 | | | 硅锰:F ...