1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Attention should be paid to upward risks such as the Iran issue, and Brent may challenge $68 - 70 per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 1, indicating a relatively neutral trend [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures contract 02 rose $1.65 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.77%, to $61.15 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 03 rose $1.60 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.51%, to $65.47 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures closed up 12.70 yuan per barrel, a 2.90% increase, at 450.40 yuan per barrel [1] Crude Oil Arbitrage Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, and Forties all had closed arbitrage windows, with reasons including unprofitable imports, insufficient cracking profits, high freight, supply surplus, and lack of competitiveness [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties had a closed arbitrage window with limited cross - Atlantic arbitrage space; Arab Extra Light had an open arbitrage window, indicating that Saudi light crude oil had an arbitrage opportunity in the US East [2] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTIMEH, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light had open arbitrage windows due to可观 cracking profits, strong demand, and improved cost - effectiveness; Azeri Light had a closed window due to environmental policies [4] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk all had closed arbitrage windows because of low demand, high freight, and structural surplus [4] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Bonny Light, Forties, and Eagle Ford all had closed arbitrage windows due to intense competition, weak demand, and narrowed arbitrage space [5] Key Market News - From January 9th, the US API crude oil inventory was 527.8 million barrels, the gasoline inventory was 823.3 million barrels, and the Cushing crude oil inventory was 94.5 million barrels, with different expectations and previous values [5] - The US government applied to the court for seizure orders to seize dozens of oil tankers related to Venezuelan oil trade, and the US military and coast guard had seized five ships in recent weeks [5][6] - The US Energy Secretary said that if the Iranian regime collapses, the US is willing to cooperate with Iran in the oil field [7] - Gulf Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Qatar are lobbying the Trump administration not to launch a military strike against Iran, fearing disruptions to the oil market and impacts on domestic stability [7]

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products" dated January 14, 2026, covering various agricultural futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - Palm oil: Doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO spread is expected to narrow [2] - Soybean oil: Limited momentum for US soybeans, attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil [2] - Soybean meal: Likely to follow US soybeans in digesting the USDA report, with a weakening market [2] - Soybean: Spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and the market may fluctuate [2] - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2] - Sugar: Expected to operate weakly [2] - Cotton: To continue the adjustment trend [2] - Eggs: Spot market is profitable, but sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [2] - Hogs: There is negative feedback in demand, and the release of supply continues to be postponed [2] - Peanuts: To operate in a fluctuating manner [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,778 yuan/ton with a 0.62% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,758 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change; soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,986 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% change, and night - session closing price was 7,984 yuan/ton with a - 0.03% change. Spot prices of palm oil in Guangdong increased by 250 yuan/ton, and soybean oil in Guangdong increased by 100 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be between 19.5 and 19.8 million tons (20.28 million tons in 2025), and the inventory is expected to be 2 million tons (3.05 million tons in 2025). India's palm oil imports in December were 507,204 tons, lower than November. Indonesia's "B50" biodiesel policy implementation depends on crude oil and palm oil prices [5][6][7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean's 2605 contract day - session closing price was 4,329 yuan/ton with a - 0.46% change, and night - session closing price was 4,333 yuan/ton with a - 0.48% change; DCE soybean meal's 2605 contract day - session closing price was 2,761 yuan/ton with a - 0.90% change, and night - session closing price was 2,745 yuan/ton with a - 1.12% change [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 13, CBOT soybeans fell to a two - and - a - half - month low. The USDA lowered US soybean export forecasts by 60 million bushels (1.63 million tons) and raised Brazil's soybean production forecast. Private exporters reported sales of 168,000 tons of soybeans to China and 152,400 tons to Mexico [10][12] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,284 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase in the day - session and 2,281 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% change in the night - session; the closing price of C2605 was 2,277 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase in the day - session and 2,278 yuan/ton with a 0.04% change in the night - session [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices increased by 5 - 10 yuan/ton, and containerized first - class grain port prices increased by 20 yuan/ton; Guangdong Shekou's bulk shipping price increased by 10 yuan/ton [15] Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.84 US cents/pound with a - 0.05 change, the mainstream spot price was 5,340 yuan/ton with no change, and the futures main contract price was 5,253 yuan/ton with a - 32 change [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: As of December 31, the 2025/26 Indian sugar production increased by 24% year - on - year. India has signed 180,000 tons of export contracts this season. Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a 2.9% year - on - year increase. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November (- 90,000 tons) [17] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,760 yuan/ton with a 0.92% increase in the day - session and 14,745 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% change in the night - session; the closing price of CY2603 was 20,765 yuan/ton with a 0.61% increase in the day - session and 20,820 yuan/ton with a 0.26% change in the night - session [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading weakened. Some cotton merchants slightly raised the basis by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The overall price of pure cotton yarn was stable, but the actual transaction center moved down slightly. The downstream weaving mills' new orders were limited, and the grey fabric inventory was high [23] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2602 was 2,960 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.53% change, and the closing price of egg 2603 was 2,990 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.32% change [28] Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,030 yuan/ton with a 100 increase, the Sichuan spot price was 13,000 yuan/ton with a - 100 change, and the Guangdong spot price was 13,260 yuan/ton with no change. The closing price of hog 2603 was 11,795 yuan/ton with a 60 increase, the closing price of hog 2605 was 12,170 yuan/ton with a 5 increase, and the closing price of hog 2607 was 12,830 yuan/ton with a 5 increase [32] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton with no change, and the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton with a - 100 change. The closing price of PK603 was 7,862 yuan/ton with a - 0.08% change, and the closing price of PK605 was 7,874 yuan/ton with a 0.10% change [35] - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, the price of Nanyang Baisha general peanuts was 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and the price of Kaifeng large peanuts was 3.5 - 3.95 yuan/jin. In Jilin, the price of 308 general peanuts was 4.6 - 4.65 yuan/jin. In Liaoning, the price of 308 general peanuts was 4.5 - 4.6 yuan/jin, and the price of Xingcheng "Little Japan" peanuts was 4.1 - 4.37 yuan/jin [36]

抢出口预期抬升市场情绪 锂价延续大幅上行 发布时间: 2026年1月13日 碳酸锂 沂期碳酸锂期货市场表现强劲,继昨日涨停后,今 日盘中再度触及涨停板。截至午间收盘,主力2605合约 报170200元/吨,上涨9.51%。本轮上涨主要受税收政 策调整驱动。根据财政部1月9日发布的通知,自2026 年4月1日至2026年12月31日,电池产品的增值税出口 误税率将从9%下调至6%,并计划于2027年1月1日起全 面取消。在近期原材料价格持续走高的背景下,电芯生 产企业面临较大的利润压力。上海有色网数据显示,近 两个月各类型电芯成本普遍上涨15%-20%。在成本快 速上行阶段,企业对于利润的敏感性增强,预计将引发 短期集中的"抢出口"行为。中国汽车动力电池产业创 新联盟统计显示,2025年1-11月,我国动力及其他电 池累计出口量已达260.3GWh,占总销量的18.4%,出 口规模已具备相当比重。整体来看,在政策过渡期"抢 出口"预期的支撑下,传统淡季需求得到提振,叠加当 前市场情绪积极,锂价仍处于上升通道,短期高点将受 多头止盈行为影响。需警惕的是,若产业链涨价顺利传 导至下游,可能抑制终端需求,进而带来回调 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 13, 2026, and the overall trend in January 2026 [2][5]. - Market events such as the US Department of Justice's criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, geopolitical frictions, and policy changes have affected market sentiment and the prices of related assets [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - On January 12, 2026, the domestic commodity futures market closed with widespread gains, with precious metals, shipping futures, new - energy materials, and base metals rising significantly. Except for the 2601 contract about to expire, all other lithium carbonate futures contracts were locked at the daily limit [8]. - International precious metal futures generally rose on January 12, 2026, due to increased market risk - aversion [9]. - Crude oil futures prices rose on January 12, 2026, supported by expected increased demand [9]. - London base metals all rose on January 12, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - On January 12, 2026, IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 all showed different degrees of upward trends, with IC2603 and IM2603 reaching new highs [11][12][13]. - In January 2026, the IF, IH, IC, and IM continuous contracts are expected to be oscillating strongly. On January 13, 2026, IF2603 and IH2603 are likely to be strongly oscillating, while IC2603 and IM2603 are likely to be oscillating strongly and may reach new highs [16][17]. 3.3 Gold Futures - On January 12, 2026, the gold futures contract AU2602 reached a new high since its listing in 2008. The continuous contract also reached a new high in night - trading on January 13, 2026 [34]. - In January 2026, the gold futures continuous contract is expected to be strongly oscillating and reach a new high. On January 13, 2026, AU2602 is likely to be strong and reach new highs [35]. 3.4 Silver Futures - On January 12, 2026, the silver futures contract AG2604 reached a new high since its listing in 2012. The continuous contract also reached a new high in night - trading on January 13, 2026 [41]. - In January 2026, the silver futures continuous contract is expected to be strongly oscillating and reach a new high. On January 13, 2026, AG2604 is likely to be strongly oscillating and reach new highs [42]. 3.5 Platinum and Palladium Futures - On January 12, 2026, platinum and palladium futures contracts showed different degrees of upward trends. In January 2026, the continuous contracts of both are expected to be strongly oscillating [47][53]. - On January 13, 2026, the PT2606 contract is likely to be widely oscillating, and the PD2606 contract is also likely to be widely oscillating [47][54]. 3.6 Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, and Tin Futures - On January 12, 2026, copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin futures contracts all rose. The continuous contracts of aluminum and tin reached new highs, and the tin contract SN2602 hit the daily limit [56][61][66][72]. - In January 2026, the continuous contracts of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to be strongly oscillating and reach new highs. The nickel continuous contract is expected to be widely oscillating strongly. On January 13, 2026, the new contracts of these metals have different expected trends [56][61][66][72]. 3.7 Polysilicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures - On January 12, 2026, the polysilicon futures contract PS2605 declined, while the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2605 hit the daily limit [76][81]. - In January 2026, the polysilicon continuous contract is expected to be weakly oscillating, and the lithium carbonate continuous contract is expected to be strongly oscillating. On January 13, 2026, the PS2605 contract is likely to be widely oscillating weakly, and the LC2605 contract is likely to be strongly oscillating and may hit the daily limit [76][83]. 3.8 Other Commodity Futures (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Glass, Soda Ash, PTA, PVC) - On January 12, 2026, these commodity futures contracts showed different trends of rise and fall. In January 2026, different trends are expected for each contract, and on January 13, 2026, most of them are likely to be weakly oscillating [88][93][96][102][107][111][114][116]. 3.9 Macro - Information and Trading Tips - China has clearly defined the layout and investment directions of government investment funds [6]. - The EU has made progress in the consultation on the China - EU electric vehicle case [6]. - There are uncertainties in the export of civilian rare - earths to Japan [6]. - China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement multiple actions during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [7]. - The US Department of Justice's criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell has affected market sentiment [7]. - US President Trump's remarks on trade tariffs and military threats have increased geopolitical risks [8].

吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 本次 USDA 双报告偏空，预计豆价暂时低位运行。1 月 USDA 供需报告上调美豆期末库存，因为供应微 增、需求下降。供应端的问题在于美豆单产维持高预估、未出现超预期下调。需求端的问题在于出口下调 数量较多，内需微增无法抵消出口调降的影响。由于供应端短期不再调整，可关注美豆需求调整：出口需 求首当其冲、中方采购仍是关键点。截至目前，中方采购美豆节奏正常、且低价美豆仍有吸引力，所以美 豆出口存在好于预期可能性。我们对于美豆盘面价格并不过分悲观，预计暂时保持低位运行，等待新的基 本面消息指引。巴西方面，虽然产量上调、但出口和内需同步上调，期末库存变化不大、平衡表维持中性 状态，预计巴西升贴水有支撑（巴西大豆争夺美豆出口市场，巴西升贴水和美豆盘面价格可能有"跷跷板 效应"）。从进口成本主要项目来看，美豆盘面价格暂无上行驱动、保持低位运行，但巴西升贴水或有支 撑、因争夺美豆出口市场，所以国内豆粕价格预计暂时低位运行，等待新的驱动。后期关注：巴西收获、 美豆出口、南美产区天气。（个人观点，仅供参考，上述内容在任何情况下 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean market has improved, and the soybean price center has shifted upward. On January 7, 2026, the soybean futures price reached a nearly 16 - month high, and the futures market activity continued to increase [1][29]. - The improvement is due to two main reasons: the better situation in the soybean spot market since 2025, including good auction results, the "low - opening and high - running" price of new - season Northeast soybeans, and the increase in both market and state - reserve purchase prices; and the strong policy sentiment, with industrial policies emphasizing key points to support the soybean industry's development, and the trading sentiment on the market being strong in response to policies. The policy sentiment boosts the trading sentiment and pushes up the price [1][29]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Soybean Futures Price Reaches a Phased High - On January 7, 2026, the closing price of the main 2605 contract of soybean futures was 4404 yuan/ton, reaching the highest point since mid - August 2024 [3]. - In 2025, the annual total trading volume of soybean futures was about 47.71 million lots (a year - on - year increase of about 65%), and the average daily trading volume was about 200,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of about 64%), both reaching the highest since 2022. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average daily trading volume climbed to the highest since 2021 [3]. - In 2025, the average daily open interest of soybean futures was about 320,000 lots, a year - on - year increase of about 49%, reaching a new high since 2021. As of the week of January 9, 2026, it was about 370,000 lots, hitting a new high [3]. 2. Improvement in the Spot Market - **Good Auction Results**: In 2025, the total auction volume of domestic soybeans was about 1.61 million tons, the highest since 2021. The state - reserve soybeans were auctioned 26 times, with 23 successful auctions and 3 failures, and the average success rate was about 47%. Nearly half of the auctions were at a premium, and the last three auctions in December 2025 were all at a premium of 64 - 95 yuan/ton, with a significant increase in the success rate [8][13]. - **"Low - opening and High - running" Price of New - season Northeast Soybeans**: In the week of October 10, 2025, the purchase price of clean soybeans in some Northeast areas dropped by 40 - 120 yuan/ton compared with the end of September. Then the price rebounded. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the price in the Northeast production area was 4260 - 4360 yuan/ton, a 440 - yuan/ton increase compared with the week of October 10, 2025. The price performance in 2025 was better than that in the same period of 2024 [13]. - **Increase in Market Purchase Price**: In 2025, the purchase price of new - season Northeast soybeans by some market enterprises was higher than that in the same period of 2024 and was in an upward trend. For example, on September 29, 2025, "Nehe Xiangyu Agricultural Products Co., Ltd." raised the purchase price to 1.92 yuan/jin, higher than the 1.9 yuan/jin in mid - October 2024, and it was further raised to 1.99 yuan/jin by November 9, 2025 [16]. - **Increase in State - reserve Purchase Price**: In 2025, the state - reserve purchase price was slightly increased. On November 3, 2025, the purchase prices for different protein levels were announced. On November 28, 2025, Suihua Direct Warehouse slightly raised the price, and on December 24, 2025, both the Hulunbuir Reserve Co., Ltd. and Suihua Direct Warehouse raised the purchase price again, with the state - reserve purchase price being higher than the market price and having a positive impact [20]. 3. Strong Policy Sentiment - **Industrial Policy**: Since the new soybeans were launched in mid - September 2025, domestic policies have supported the development of the soybean industry. Key points such as "grain production capacity improvement", "quality improvement", etc. were emphasized to support the development of the domestic soybean industry [23][24]. - **Trade Policy**: The domestic market also trades on changes in import soybean policies, such as Sino - US tariff policies and soybean import policies, due to the competitive pressure of imported soybeans on domestic soybeans [24]. - **Reserve Policy**: The domestic soybean auction rhythm affects short - term supply and market sentiment, and the market also trades on this [24]. 4. Conclusion - The domestic soybean market has improved, and the soybean price center has shifted upward. The improvement is due to the better situation in the spot market and strong policy sentiment. The policy can play a role in guiding the supply - demand relationship of the domestic soybean market and promoting the sustainable development of the industry. Later, attention should be paid to the No. 1 Central Document, the auction rhythm, and the selling pressure of farmers after the Spring Festival [1][29].

席君安朝贸客户中的专业投资者，请勿润强、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的排价，亦不应被视为任何规资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因素收入收到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2026/1/13 | 李先飞 | 王蒙 | 刘雨萱 | Z0002529 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixia ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - The lithium price continues to rise significantly, driven by the adjustment of tax policies. The expected "rush to export" during the policy transition period boosts demand in the traditional off - season, and the lithium price is still in an upward channel, but there is a risk of callback if the price increase is passed on to downstream [1]. - For the on - site options, considering the limited strike price of call options and high volatility premium, one can use buying in - the - money call options for long - hedging or bull call spread combinations to protect part of the upside space and reduce costs [2]. - For off - site options, customers with long positions planning to gradually reduce their positions can consider arranging Phoenix Knock - out Put Options with a moderate cycle and a wide range to seize the opportunity to reduce positions at high prices and gain additional income in a wide - range volatile market [3]. Summary by Related Content Lithium Market - The lithium carbonate futures market performs strongly. As of the mid - day close on January 13, 2026, the main 2605 contract is reported at 170,200 yuan/ton, up 9.51%. The rise is mainly driven by the adjustment of the battery product's VAT export refund rate from 9% to 6 from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and the planned full cancellation on January 1, 2027 [1]. - In the context of rising raw material prices, the cost of various types of battery cells has generally increased by 15% - 20% in the past two months. The "rush to export" behavior is expected to boost demand in the traditional off - season, and the lithium price is in an upward channel, with the short - term high affected by long - profit - taking [1]. - If the price increase in the industrial chain is successfully passed on to the downstream, it may suppress terminal demand and bring a callback risk [1]. On - site Options Given the limited strike price of call options and high volatility premium, one can use buying in - the - money call options for long - hedging or bull call spread combinations to protect part of the upside space and reduce costs [2]. Off - site Options Customers with long positions planning to gradually reduce their positions can consider arranging Phoenix Knock - out Put Options with a moderate cycle and a wide range to seize the opportunity to reduce positions at high prices and gain additional income in a wide - range volatile market [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers daily insights and forecasts for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. It analyzes market trends based on factors such as supply - demand dynamics, cost changes, and geopolitical events. For example, due to geopolitical tensions, crude oil prices are affected, which in turn impacts the cost and price trends of related chemical products [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Aromatics and Polyester - related Products - **PX**: Expected to be in a high - level unilateral shock market. Although the supply is gradually becoming more abundant, the cost support from oil prices and the attention from macro funds keep it short - term strong. Suggestions include paying attention to positive spread arbitrage of monthly spreads and hedging by going long on PX and short on PTA [11]. - **PTA**: Unilateral price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Future supply and demand are both weak, but currently, with high processing fees and low inventory, the price remains firm. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA, and go long on SC and short on PTA [12]. - **MEG**: Short - term rebound is expected. Although the demand from polyester is declining, the supply pressure is relieved due to factors such as the impact of the naphtha consumption tax policy on oil - based plants and overseas device shutdowns. It is suggested to close short positions [13]. 3.2 Rubber - related Products - **Rubber**: In a wide - range shock state. The inventory in Qingdao has increased, and the tire enterprise production is different. The overall sales pressure of the tire industry remains [15][16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The upward pressure is gradually increasing. The short - term fundamentals of butadiene are neutral, and the synthetic rubber mainly fluctuates with the cost [20]. 3.3 Plastic - related Products - **LLDPE**: Some production of standard products has been switched back, and the regional spot replenishment continues. The raw material price is stable, but the supply - demand pressure in the medium - term still exists due to high production capacity and weakening demand [21][22]. - **PP**: The cost support is relatively strong as downstream export rush supports propylene. However, the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [24][25]. 3.4 Other Chemical Products - **Caustic Soda**: In a weak shock state. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, with weak demand and large supply pressure. The future delivery pressure of some contracts is also large [29]. - **Pulp**: In a wide - range shock state. The supply - demand structure of the market has not changed significantly, and the downstream demand is only for rigid needs. Attention should be paid to factors such as capital trends in the futures market [35]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The overall market operation is relatively stable, but the demand support is gradually weakening, and the supply - demand situation is not optimistic [38]. - **Methanol**: In a high - level shock state. The spot price is fluctuating slightly, and the port inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the upstream inventory clearance rhythm and freight changes [44]. - **Urea**: Short - term callback is expected, but it is strong in the medium - term. The inventory has a small increase, and the demand is improving, but the short - term downstream resistance is increasing [47][48]. - **Styrene**: In a short - term shock state. The current valuation is high, and there are opportunities to go short at high prices. The medium - term driving force is weak due to factors such as the weakening of overseas blending oil drive [50][51]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The futures price has a small increase, and the overall supply - demand situation is relatively stable [54]. - **LPG**: Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong. The price is affected by factors such as CP paper price changes and device maintenance plans [63]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong. The price is affected by the supply - demand relationship in the market and the operation rate of related devices [58]. - **PVC**: In a weak shock state. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the anti - involution sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to enter the market after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans on the supply side [66]. - **Fuel Oil**: The weak trend continues, but there is still support below. The low - sulfur fuel oil has entered a shock state, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is continuously rebounding [69][70]. 3.5 Shipping - related Products - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the cabin opening guidance, and a light - position short - selling trial can be made for the 04 contract. The market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity changes, demand fluctuations caused by export tax - rebate policies, and geopolitical situations [80][81][82]. 3.6 Fiber - related Products - **Staple Fiber**: It is expected to be in a strong shock state. It is recommended to hold the position of going long on TA and short on PF [88]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is expected to be in a strong shock state. It is recommended to hold the long - short spread position of monthly spreads [89]. 3.7 Paper - related Products - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to short at high prices. The market price is stable, but the downstream demand is limited, and the production and sales situation is not good [91]. 3.8 Benzene - related Products - **Pure Benzene**: It is in a short - term shock state. The port inventory is increasing, and the market price has risen, but the post - price increase trading volume is general [96][97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily data of commodity options on January 12, 2026, including the futures and options market statistics and option quantitative indicators of agricultural products, energy chemicals, black commodities, and metals [1][5][9][11] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Agricultural Products 3.1.1 Futures Market Statistics - Various agricultural products show different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the closing price of corn (c2603) is 2290 with a change of 27, and the trading volume increases by 98441 [1] 3.1.2 Options Market Statistics - Data on the trading volume, PCR (Put - Call Ratio), and open interest of options for different agricultural products are provided, along with their changes [3] 3.1.3 Option Quantitative Indicators - Includes information such as remaining trading days, at - the - money volatility, and its changes, as well as historical volatility and skew for different agricultural product options [4] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Futures Market Statistics - Different energy chemical products have distinct price movements, trading volume changes, and open interest changes. For instance, the closing price of PTA (ta2605) is 5142 with an increase of 34, and the trading volume increases by 504652 [5] 3.2.2 Options Market Statistics - Information on the trading volume, PCR, and open interest of options for energy chemical products, along with their changes [6][7] 3.2.3 Option Quantitative Indicators - Details about remaining trading days, at - the - money volatility, and its changes, historical volatility, and skew for energy chemical product options [8] 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Futures Market Statistics - The futures market statistics of black commodities like iron ore, power coal, and rebar are presented, including price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes [9] 3.3.2 Options Market Statistics - Data on the trading volume, PCR, and open interest of options for black commodities, along with their changes [9] 3.3.3 Option Quantitative Indicators - Information on remaining trading days, at - the - money volatility, and its changes, historical volatility, and skew for black commodity options [10] 3.4 Metals 3.4.1 Futures Market Statistics - The futures market statistics of metals such as gold, silver, and copper are shown, including price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes [11] 3.4.2 Options Market Statistics - Data on the trading volume, PCR, and open interest of options for metals, along with their changes [12] 3.4.3 Option Quantitative Indicators - Details about remaining trading days, at - the - money volatility, and its changes, historical volatility, and skew for metal options [13]