2026 年 01 月 26 日 短纤：短期趋势偏强 20260126 瓶片：短期趋势偏强 20260126 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | ୧୧38 | 6486 | 152 | PF02-03 | -2 | -10 | 8 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6640 | 6496 | 144 | PF03-04 | -48 | -40 | -8 | | | 短纤2604 | ୧୧୫୫ | ୧୧3୧ | 152 | PF主力基差 | -100 | -16 | -84 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 185407 | 112708 | 72699 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.540 | 6.480 | 60 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 190745 | 190842 | -97 | 短纤产销率 | 118% | 78% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Title - "Carbonate Lithium: Strong Reality Support, High-level Fluctuation" [1] 2. Report Date - January 26, 2026 [1] 3. Analysts - Shao Wanyi, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015722, Email: shaowanyi@gtht.com [2] - Liu Hongru, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0023466, Email: liuhongru@gtht.com [2] 4. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 5. Core View - The report focuses on the carbonate lithium market, presenting its fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend intensity, indicating that carbonate lithium is supported by strong reality and in high - level fluctuation. [1] 6. Summary by Directory 6.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 181,520, the trading volume is 342,805, and the open interest is 438,728. For the 2607 contract, the closing price is 182,640, the trading volume is 45,693, and the open interest is 134,056. The warehouse receipt volume is 28,156. [3] - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2605 contract is - 10,520, between spot and 2607 contract is - 11,640, between 2605 and 2607 contracts is - 1,120, between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 3,500, and between spot and CIF is 28,234. [3] - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 2,214, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 5,125. [3] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade carbonate lithium is 171,000, industrial - grade carbonate lithium is 167,500, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 166,350, etc. [3] - **Consumption**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as ternary materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and electrolytes are also presented. For example, the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) is 197,400, and lithium hexafluorophosphate is 146,000. [3] 6.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade carbonate lithium index price is 168,960 yuan/ton, up 4,103 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium is 171,000 yuan/ton, up 6,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium is 167,500 yuan/ton, up 6,500 yuan/ton. [4] - According to the Passenger Car Association, the estimated total retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in January is about 1.8 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 20.4% and a year - on - year slight increase. New energy vehicle retail sales can reach about 800,000, with a penetration rate of 44.4%. [5] 6.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of carbonate lithium is 0, indicating a neutral view. [5]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 26 日 铁矿石：价格震荡，关注下游补库 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 来源：Mysteel，东财 Choice，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 （1）财联社 1 月 20 日电，1 月贷款市场报价利率（LPR）报价出炉：5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.5%，上月 为 3.5%。1 年期 LPR 为 3%，上月为 3%。(来自财联社 APP) 【趋势强度】 铁矿石趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 | | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | 8.5 | 1.08% | | | I2605 | | 795.0 | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | | | | 568,811 | 2,342 | | | | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 焦炭：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 【宏观及行业新闻】 （1）1 月 23 日中国煤炭资源网 CCI 冶金煤指数：CCI 山西低硫主焦 S0.7 1627（-）；CCI 山西中硫主 焦 S1.3 1260（-）；CCI 山西高硫主焦 S1.6 1249（-） （2）【中国煤炭资源网】产地焦煤简评，本日（1 月 23 日）炼焦煤线上竞拍挂牌量总计 21.2 吨，流拍 率 16%，较昨日上升 9%，平均溢价 18.78 元/吨。今日挂牌资源主要以焦煤、配焦原煤为主，终端需求表现 不佳，焦钢市场持续博弈，原料支撑减弱，下游采购心态偏弱，多谨慎观望暂缓拿货，焦煤市场成交一般， 成交价格跌多涨少，且流拍率有所上升，今日多数资源降幅在 10-36 元/吨，个别价格小幅涨 1-10 元/吨。 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 焦煤：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | JM2605 | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 1157 | 涨跌(元/吨) 25. 5 | 涨跌幅 ...

2026 年 1 月 26 日 LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 丙烯：趋势偏强，但涨势放缓 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2602 | 4,240 | 0.98% | 4,318 | 1.84% | | 2602 | 2,298 | -1,577 | 3,205 | -1,157 | | | PG | 2603 | 4,174 | 0.97% | 4,254 | 1.92% | PG | 2603 | 65,688 | -4,425 | 86,727 | -369 | | 期货市场 | | 2604 | 4,452 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is rated as "1", indicating a "moderately strong" outlook. The range of trend strength is [-2, 2], where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, with the macro - narrative of incremental funds allocating more to the chemical sector, butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber are expected to run strongly. This is due to continuous neutral spot transactions in the synthetic rubber industry chain and cost - push from the strong short - term fundamentals of butadiene. However, some valuation indicators of cis - butadiene rubber are approaching the boundary, and there is an increasing negative feedback expectation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (03 contract), the daily closing price increased from 12,270 yuan/ton to 12,930 yuan/ton, the trading volume rose from 182,757 lots to 356,678 lots, the open interest increased from 96,682 lots to 127,376 lots, and the trading volume in ten thousand yuan increased from 1,104,674 to 2,283,655 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene minus the futures main contract increased from - 420 to - 230; the monthly spread of BR02 - BR05 (private) decreased from - 110 to - 120. The prices of cis - butadiene in North China, East China, and South China (private) increased by 750, 700, and 650 yuan/ton respectively. The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene (delivery product) increased by 850 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (type 1502 and 1712) increased by 600 and 400 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 850 and 950 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate remained at 74.599%, the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene increased from 12,697 yuan/ton to 13,315 yuan/ton, and the profit of cis - butadiene increased from - 697 yuan/ton to - 615 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Industry News - As of January 21, 2026, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 35,400 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 1.32%. Due to sufficient spot - end circulation resources, downstream procurement continued to push down prices, and the inventory of some sample production enterprises still increased. However, the price advantage of arbitrage resources emerged, and downstream low - price procurement increased, resulting in a decrease in the inventory of sample trading enterprises [2]. - On January 21, the latest inventory of butadiene at East China ports was about 34,500 tons, a significant decrease of 10,100 tons compared to the previous period. Due to limited arrival of imported vessels and relatively high operating rates of major downstream industries, the raw material inventory decreased significantly, leading to a significant drop in the inventory of sample ports [3]. - In the short term, butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber are expected to run strongly. The reasons are: the overall synthetic rubber industry chain has continuous neutral spot transactions, maintaining high apparent demand for synthetic rubber; the short - term fundamentals of butadiene are strong, forming a cost - push logic for synthetic rubber. The supply of butadiene in China is at a high level, but the Asian regional operating rate is restricted, and the international butadiene price increase drives up the price in China. The demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber, ABS, and SBS remains high. The apparent demand for cis - butadiene rubber remains high, and it mainly fluctuates with the cost. However, some valuation indicators of cis - butadiene rubber are approaching the boundary, and the negative feedback expectation is increasing [3].

| | 指 标 | 单 位 | 本 期 | 环 比 | 同比去年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产地价格 | 大同南郊动力煤Q5500 | 元/吨 | 564.0 | 0.0 | -62.0 | | | 鄂尔多斯伊金霍勒旗电煤Q5500 | 元/吨 | 526.0 | 0.0 | -44.0 | | | 动力煤价格:榆林烟煤末Q6000 | 元/吨 | 589.0 | 0.0 | -64.0 | | 港口价格 | 秦港山西产Q5500 | 元/吨 | 599.0 | 0.0 | -24.0 | | | 秦港山西产Q5000 | 元/吨 | 514.0 | 0.0 | -19.0 | | | 秦港山西产Q4500 | 元/吨 | 750.0 | 0.0 | -37.0 | | 海外价格 | 印尼FOB Q3800 | 美元/吨 | 49.5 | 0.2 | -0.5 | | | 澳大利亚FOB Q5500 | 美元/吨 | 74.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 | | 1月长协价格 | 港口Q5500 | 元/吨 | 684.0 | -10.0 | -9.0 ...

多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 2026 年 01 月 26 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：上游工厂减产，盘面震荡偏强 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） Si2605成交量（手） | 8,820 229,964 | -5 -166 | 215 -51,289 | 225 -76,978 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 231,434 | 2,946 | -7,435 | 9,828 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 50,720 | 205 | 520 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 13,443 | 2,521 | -8,274 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 41,291 | -2,027 | -4,929 | - | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The log market is in a state of repeated fluctuations, and the trend strength is neutral with a value of 0 [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Key Information from the Report 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: - For the 2603 contract, the closing price on January 22, 2026, was 768.5, with a daily increase of 1.0% and a weekly increase of 1.7%. The trading volume was 4760, with a daily increase of 98.1% and a weekly decrease of 20%. The open interest was 14921, with a daily decrease of 22.2% and a weekly decrease of 14% [1]. - For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 786, with a daily increase of 0.3% and a weekly increase of 1%. The trading volume was 695, with a daily increase of 37.6% and a weekly decrease of 12%. The open interest was 3267, with a daily decrease of 4.7% and a weekly increase of 12% [1]. - For the 2607 contract, the closing price was 799.5, with a daily decrease of 0.1% and a weekly increase of 0%. The trading volume was 110, with a daily increase of 92.6% and a weekly increase of 162%. The open interest was 1060, with a daily decrease of 4.7% and a weekly increase of 2% [1]. - **Spreads**: - The spread between the spot and the 2603 contract was -28.5, with a daily increase of 26.3% and a weekly increase of 57%. The spread between the spot and the 2605 contract was -46, with a daily increase of 5.4% and a weekly increase of 14% [1]. - The spreads between different contracts (2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, 2605 - 2607) remained relatively stable [1]. - **Spot Market**: - Most of the log and wood - square spot prices in different regions and specifications remained unchanged, with only a few showing slight fluctuations. For example, the price of 3 - meter radiation pine wood square in Chongqing increased by 0.7% both daily and weekly [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - China's December RatingDog Composite PMI was 51.3, exceeding the 50.0 boom - bust line and slightly rising from 51.2 in November, indicating a further increase in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [3]

2026 年 1 月 26 日 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市；04 空单逐步减仓观 望、10 空单酌情持有 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 41 商 品 研 究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,717.7 | 0.61% | | 532 | 4,401 | -280 | 0.12 | | 0.16 | | | EC2604 | 1,138.3 | -0.10% | | 30,781 | 41,149 | 379 | 0.75 | | 0.48 | | | | 本期 | | | 2026/1/19 | | 单位 ...