1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is in a wide - range fluctuation, and the disturbances at the mining end have not been settled yet [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 70,600 yuan, down 240 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 792,909 lots, up 48,749 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 272,753 lots, down 27,867 lots from T - 1. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 70,580 yuan, up 20 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 457,258 lots, up 143,169 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 185,345 lots, up 22,225 lots from T - 1 [1] - **Spot and Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 2,350 yuan, up 40 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2511 was 2,370 yuan, down 220 yuan from T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was 20 yuan, down 260 yuan from T - 1 [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 776 US dollars, down 1 US dollar from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan, unchanged from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,950 yuan, down 200 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,850 yuan, down 150 yuan from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 72,858 yuan/ton, down 211 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,950 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2] - Greenbushes produced 340,000 tons of lithium concentrate in 2025Q2, unchanged from the previous quarter and up 2.4% year - on - year; sold 412,000 tons of lithium concentrate, up 12.6% from the previous quarter and down 22.3% year - on - year. The production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year is 1.5 - 1.65 million tons, higher than the 2025 fiscal year; the cash cost guidance is 310 - 360 Australian dollars/ton, lower than the 2025 fiscal year [3] - Pilgangoora produced 221,300 tons of lithium concentrate in 2025Q2, up 77.0% from the previous quarter; sold 216,000 tons of lithium concentrate, up 72.1% from the previous quarter. The FOB cost in 2025Q2 was 619 Australian dollars/ton, down 9.6% from the previous quarter. The production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year is 820,000 - 870,000 tons, higher than the 2025 fiscal year; the FOB cost guidance is 560 - 600 Australian dollars/ton, lower than the 2025 fiscal year [3]

Key Information Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The old peanut crops have support at the lower price level [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The prices of important spot peanuts such as Liaoning 308, Henan Baisha, Xingcheng Xiaoriben, and Sudan refined rice remained unchanged at 8,600 yuan/ton, 8,560 yuan/ton, 8,400 yuan/ton, and 8,600 yuan/ton respectively [3] - **Futures Prices**: PK510 closed at 8,106 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.20%, while PK511 closed at 7,982 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.13% [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of PK510, PK511, and the entire peanut futures market all decreased. For example, the trading volume of PK510 decreased by 33,084 lots to 36,933 lots, and the open interest decreased by 895 lots to 101,404 lots [3] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Liaoning 308, Henan Baisha, Xingcheng Xiaoriben, and Sudan refined rice were 494 yuan/ton, 454 yuan/ton, 294 yuan/ton, and 494 yuan/ton respectively. The 10 - 11 inter - period spread was 124 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Spot Market Focus - **Henan Region**: The market is mainly for inventory trading. Inquiries and purchases are average. Peanut prices are basically stable, with transactions priced according to quality and color [4] - **Jilin Region**: The price of 308 common peanuts is around 4.3 - 4.4. There is not much remaining stock in the producing area. The market is mainly for inventory sales, and inquiries and purchases are average. Prices in most areas are stable [4] - **Liaoning Region**: The acquisition of raw materials at the grassroots level has ended. The market is mainly for inventory trading. There are large quality differences, and transactions are mainly through negotiation. Demand is low, and the market is slightly weak [4] - **Shandong Region**: The acquisition of raw materials has ended. The market is mainly for cold - storage peanut trading. There is not much remaining inventory in most areas, and the trading is in the final stage [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of peanuts is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report focuses on the asphalt market, showing that asphalt prices are rising slowly following the strong performance of crude oil. It also analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and recent industry news of asphalt [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of BU2508 and BU2509 increased, with daily increases of 0.77% and 0.86% respectively. The trading volume of BU2508 increased by 1,089 lots, while that of BU2509 decreased by 17,315 lots. The positions of both decreased [1]. - **Spot Market**: The wholesale prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta increased and remained unchanged respectively. The refinery operating rate decreased by 1.29% to 31.95%, and the refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.79% to 25.10% [1]. - **Spread**: The basis (Shandong - 08) decreased by 18 yuan/ton, the 08 - 09 inter - period spread decreased by 3 yuan/ton, the Shandong - South China spread increased by 10, and the East China - South China spread remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The asphalt trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively neutral to slightly positive outlook, with the intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [10]. 3.3 Market News - **Capacity Utilization**: From July 24 - 30, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 33.1%, a 4.3% increase from the previous period, mainly due to stable production in some major refineries in Shandong and Jinling Petrochemical [15]. - **Maintenance Volume**: From July 24 - 30, 2025, the domestic asphalt plant maintenance volume was 60.4 tons, a 5.9% decrease from the previous week, mainly due to the resumption of production in Xinjiang Meihuit and some Shandong refineries [15]. - **Shipment Volume**: From July 23 - 29, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 41.9 tons, a 1.0% increase from the previous period. Shipments in the Northeast weakened, while those in the East China increased significantly [15].

2025 年 7 月 31 日 燃料油：上涨延续，短期仍然强势 低硫燃料油：盘面偏强震荡，外盘现货高低硫 价差继续上行 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2509 | 元/吨 | 2,956 | 1. 34% | | 2,944 | 1.06% | | | | FU2510 | 元/吨 | 2.967 | 1.06% | | 2.950 | 1.13% | | | | LU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,692 | 1.68% | | 3.675 | 1.66% | | | | LU2510 | 元/吨 | 3.710 | 1.66% | | 3.690 | 1.93% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU25 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The spot price of live pigs has dropped rapidly due to limited downstream digestion capacity during the off - season of consumption, and the market's expectation of price increases from late July to early August may lead to more concentrated slaughtering and continued weak operation of the spot market. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 13,930 yuan/ton (a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton), in Sichuan is 13,500 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year), and in Guangdong is 15,440 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year) [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of the live pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 14,075 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 75 yuan/ton), 14,105 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton), and 14,390 yuan/ton (a year - on - year decrease of 10 yuan/ton) respectively [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 33,288 lots (an increase of 1463 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 53,049 lots (a decrease of 1758 lots compared to the previous day); the trading volume of the 2511 contract is 12,422 lots (a decrease of 1590 lots), with an open interest of 49,996 lots (an increase of 1377 lots); the trading volume of the 2601 contract is 14,003 lots (a decrease of 30 lots), with an open interest of 41,852 lots (a decrease of 951 lots) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of the live pig 2509 contract is - 145 yuan/ton (a year - on - year increase of 125 yuan/ton) [1]. Market Logic - Group companies are actively reducing the weight of pigs recently. Due to the off - season of consumption and limited downstream digestion capacity, the spot price has dropped rapidly, indicating that the previous price increase relied more on inventory - building sentiment. The market's expectation of price increases from late July to early August may lead to more concentrated slaughtering and continued weak operation of the spot market. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, resulting in a weak reality and strong expectation situation, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view. A value of 0 indicates a neutral view [2].

尿素：压力缓步增加 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,742 | 1,744 | - 2 -4133 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,749 | 1,739 | 1 0 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 147,498 | 151,631 | | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 147,157 | 152,980 | -5823 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 2,900 | 2,900 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 515,895 | 527,502 | -11607 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | 2 8 | 1 6 | 1 2 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -82 | -94 | 1 2 | | | | 东光-盘面 | （最便宜可交割品） | 8 | 1 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2) Core Views - Palm oil has short - term support due to positive crude oil and macro sentiment; soybean oil is in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to China - US trade progress [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,982 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase, and (night session) 8,930 yuan/ton with a - 0.58% decrease; soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,240 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase, and (night session) 8,234 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% decrease; rapeseed oil's closing price (day session) was 9,621 yuan/ton with a 1.36% increase, and (night session) 9,579 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% decrease. Other futures prices and their changes are also presented [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 111,443 to 500,291 lots, and open interest decreased by 28,345 to 403,926 lots; soybean oil's trading volume decreased by 140,618 to 279,490 lots, and open interest decreased by 5,073 to 506,250 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume increased by 4,753 to 280,029 lots, and open interest increased by 18,819 to 215,474 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,990 yuan/ton with a 70 - yuan increase; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,420 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,610 yuan/ton with a 120 - yuan increase [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 8 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 180 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 11 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 639 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 742 yuan/ton, and other spreads are also provided [1] b) Macro and Industry News - On July 30, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 40% tariff on Brazil, bringing the total tariff to 50% [2] - Brazilian 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to reach 182.9 million tons, up from 173.5 million tons in the previous year [4] - Heavy rains in western, northern, and central Ukraine have slowed down the harvest progress, leading to a decline in exports and a possible drop in rapeseed production. As of July 25, Ukrainian farmers had harvested about 1 million tons of rapeseed (compared to 3.3 million tons last year) and about 7 million tons of wheat (compared to 17 million tons last year) [4] c) Trend Intensity - Palm oil's trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil's trend intensity is 0. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], with different levels of strength defined [5]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 31 日 PVC：短期偏弱震荡 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 09合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 9-1月差 | | 5159 | 5060 | -99 | -137 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 市场现货震荡调整，受政策预期影响盘面开盘拉升，然午后预期未有利好盘中转跌，PVC 供 需基本面维持双弱，新增产能投产供应维持高位，内外贸需求淡季，行业库存继续累库，现货价格承压，华 东地区电石法五型现汇库提在 5050-5150 元/吨，乙烯法在 5000-5200 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 PVC 在此轮反内卷过程中基本面并没有明显改善，考虑到 PVC 装置大多有持续维护升级改造，目前反 内卷政策也未涉及 PVC 行业，因此影响相对有限。但短期仍受反内卷情绪扰动，关注焦煤等商品走势。 基本面看，PVC 行业利润在此 ...

商 品 研 究 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 2025 年 07 月 31 日 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,775 | 11,835 | -60 -4222 | | | | | | 100,392 | 104,614 | | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 39,690 | 41,136 | -1446 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 594,254 | 620,306 | -26052 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 175 | 15 | 160 | | | 月差 | BR08-BR09 | | -50 | -30 | -20 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,650 | 11,700 | -50 ...

张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 2025 年 07 月 31 日 工业硅：情绪转弱 多晶硅：关注市场情绪变化 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 9,285 | -65 | -240 | 1,225 | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 605,161 | | -49,683 -1,076,836 -772,169 | | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 242,677 | -34,057 | -92,099 | -113,074 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2509收盘价（元/吨） | 54,705 | 3,900 | 4,625 | - | | | | PS2509成交量（手） | 565,243 | 19,206 | -680,998 | - | | | | PS2509持仓量（手） | 16 ...