商 品 研 究 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 85,120 | -0.92% | 86520 | 1.64% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,802 | 4.13% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 291,422 | 78,954 | 201,831 | -14,284 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 29,402 | -11,695 | 323,000 | 583 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 32,890 | 2,926 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 139,350 | -50 | 5.94% | -0.05% | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 较前日变动 | | | LME铜升贴水 | | 226.78 | -31.19 | 257.97 | | | 保税区 ...

2025 年 10 月 14 日 短纤：关税预期缓和但仍有变数，低位震荡 瓶片：关税预期缓和但仍有变数，低位震荡 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2511 | 6200 | 6292 | -92 | PF11-12 | 38 | 60 | -22 | | PF | 短纤2512 | 6162 | 6232 | -70 | PF12-01 | -52 | -52 | 0 | | | 短纤2601 | 6214 | 6284 | -70 | PF主力基差 | 203 | 138 | 65 | | | 短纤主力持命量 | 183370 | 185616 | -2246 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 365 | 6. 370 | -5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the short - term is "volatile" [1] Core View - The domestic methanol market performed well overall. With the sanctions event fermenting and uncertainties in the follow - up, along with the expected supply reduction from overseas gas restrictions in the medium - term, the port trading atmosphere was good and the basis continued to strengthen. The buying atmosphere in the mainland's main markets was also good, and new orders from production area enterprises were well - sold. Attention should be paid to the subsequent freight fluctuations and the impact of the sanctions event. After the festival, methanol port inventories accumulated, with different inventory situations in different regions [4] Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, the closing price of methanol's 01 - contract was 2,342 yuan/ton (yesterday: 2,307 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton), the settlement price was 2,335 yuan/ton (yesterday: 2,295 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton), the trading volume was 1,262,936 lots (yesterday: 569,488 lots, up 693,448 lots), the open interest was 991,942 lots (yesterday: 1,001,498 lots, down 9,556 lots), the number of warehouse receipts was 11,282 tons (yesterday: 11,382 tons, down 100 tons), and the trading volume was 2,948,666 ten - thousand yuan (yesterday: 1,307,252 ten - thousand yuan, up 1,641,415 ten - thousand yuan). The basis was - 42 (yesterday: - 82, up 40), and the spread between MA01 and MA05 was - 12 (yesterday: - 44, up 32). - In the spot market, the price in Jiangsu's ex - tank was 0 (unchanged), the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,060 yuan/ton (yesterday: 2,055 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton), the price in northern Shaanxi was 2,045 yuan/ton (yesterday: 2,050 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton), and the price in Shandong was 2,260 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] 2. Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2,167.17, up 11.49. The spot price in Taicang was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and the price in northern Inner Mongolia was 2,070 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton. Among 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 12 cities saw price increases ranging from 2.5 to 65 yuan/ton [4] 3. Inventory Situation - After the festival, methanol port inventories accumulated. From September 25th to October 9th, 59.47 tons of foreign - owned vessels' visible unloading were counted. In Jiangsu, ship departures supported good提货, in Zhejiang, the rigid demand was stable, and concentrated unloading led to inventory accumulation. In South China, inventories continued to increase. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic vessels arrived at the port, but typhoon weather affected unloading and提货 in some periods, and holiday - related restrictions on提货 in mainstream warehouses led to inventory build - up. In Fujian, imported and domestic supplies were supplemented, and downstream consumption was relatively stable, with little inventory fluctuation [4] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]

资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 2025 年 10 月 14 日 白糖：供应过剩预期，价格承压 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 15.57 | -0.53 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 32 | 5 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5830 | -10 | 59 价差（元/吨） | -11 | -8 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5470 | -26 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 360 | 16 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期 货 研 究 期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：美股、原油反弹，黄金、白银大幅上涨并创新高。巴西 9 月上半月食糖产量同比大幅增加 16%。巴西出口下降，引发对于全球消费的担忧。巴西 9 月出口 325 万吨，同比减少 16%；巴西 8 月出口 374 万吨，同比减少 5%；巴西 7 月出口 359 万吨， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The significant reduction in lithium carbonate warehouse receipts provides an upward driving force [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a certain degree of upward momentum [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **2511 Contract**: The closing price was 72,280 yuan, down 460 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 282,178 lots, down 12,605 lots; the open interest was 207,463 lots, down 14,456 lots [2] - **2601 Contract**: The closing price was 72,500 yuan, down 400 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 107,357 lots, down 1,046 lots; the open interest was 201,855 lots, up 10,146 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 36,718 lots, down 5,951 lots compared to T - 1 [2] - **Base Difference**: The spot - 2511 was 820 yuan, up 10 yuan compared to T - 1; the spot - 2601 was 600 yuan, down 50 yuan; the 2511 - 2601 was - 220 yuan, down 60 yuan [2] - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 829 US dollars, down 10 US dollars compared to T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,765 yuan, down 45 yuan [2] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,100 yuan, down 450 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,850 yuan, down 450 yuan [2] - **Related Products**: The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 121,625 yuan, up 800 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 124,975 yuan, up 900 yuan [2] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,039 yuan/ton, down 414 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,100 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,850 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan/ton [3] - In September, the preliminary statistics of China's passenger car market retail sales increased by 6% year - on - year and 11% month - on - month, reaching 2.239 million vehicles [3] - In September, new energy vehicle sales increased by 16% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month, reaching 1.307 million vehicles [5]

Report Overview - Report Date: October 14, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report on Energy and Chemicals by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the fundamentals and market dynamics of each commodity [2][10][11] 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Mid - term trend is weak. Suggest long PXN positions due to potential PX supply - demand gap and expected expansion of polyester industry chain profits [2][10] - **PTA**: Hold 1 - 5 reverse spreads. Unilateral trend is weak due to weak cost support and sufficient supply [2][10] - **MEG**: Unilateral trend is weak under the pattern of oversupply. Overall load is expected to adjust slightly, and attention should be paid to the impact of policies on demand [2][11] Rubber - **Rubber**: Oscillating weakly. Market shows a decline in futures prices and a decrease in inventory in Qingdao area [2][13][15] Synthetic Rubber - **Synthetic Rubber**: Weak operation. Fundamental pressure increases due to high supply, and macro - trade conflicts may also affect cost and demand expectations [2][18] Asphalt - **Asphalt**: Weakly oscillating. Production increases, factory inventory rises, and social inventory decreases [2][20][31] LLDPE, PP, PVC - **LLDPE**: Trend is weak. Market is affected by tariff policies, with high inventory pressure and limited cost support from crude oil [2][32][33] - **PP**: Trend remains weak. Suppressed by factors such as trade wars and high supply [2][36][37] - **PVC**: Trend is weak. High - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and exports may face policy disturbances [2][74][75] Others - **Caustic Soda**: Do not chase short positions in the short term. Supply pressure is not large, and demand in some areas is expected to drive inventory reduction [40][42] - **Pulp**: Oscillating. Supply pressure persists, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [45][48] - **Glass**: Original sheet prices are stable. Market demand is weak, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is low [50][51] - **Methanol**: Short - term oscillation. Spot prices show some increases, and port inventory has accumulated after the holiday [53][56] - **Urea**: Short - term oscillating. Inventory increased during the National Day, and spot trading improved recently, but the medium - term trend remains weak [58][59][60] - **Styrene**: Stop loss on short positions. Short - term oscillation is expected, and the expectation of inventory accumulation turns to de - stocking in October [61][62] - **Soda Ash**: Spot market changes little. Supply is at a high level, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [63][64] - **LPG**: Resistant to decline at low levels and rebounded at night. Attention should be paid to the changes in CP prices and device maintenance plans [66][71] - **Propylene**: Demand weakens, and short - term weak operation is expected [67] - **Fuel Oil**: Oscillating and weak in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil shows a slight decline at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur spot is narrowing [77] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: May oscillate strongly. Market conditions are affected by factors such as freight rates and shipping capacity [79]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon has limited upside potential [1] - For polysilicon, there were intensive self - regulatory meetings this week, with a slight reduction in warehouse receipts, and market sentiment may improve [2] Section Summaries 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon (Si2511): The closing price was 8,805 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 241,553 lots and an open interest of 165,722 lots. Compared with T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22, there were corresponding changes [2] - Polysilicon (PS2511): The closing price was 48,740 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 246,976 lots and an open interest of 87,665 lots. There were also changes compared with T - 1 and T - 5 [2] - **Basis and Spread**: - Industrial silicon: The spread between the near - month contract and the first continuous contract was 25 yuan/ton, and the cost of the near - month long and first continuous short inter - period arbitrage was 44.5 yuan/ton [2] - Polysilicon: The spread between the near - month contract and the first continuous contract was 195.0 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: Different spot premium and discount data for industrial silicon (against different grades) and polysilicon (against N - type re - investment material) were presented [2] - **Prices**: - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was 8,850 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 9,950 yuan/ton [2] - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - investment material was 52,750 yuan/ton [2] - **Profit**: - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,464.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 3,403 yuan/ton [2] - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 14.0 yuan/kg [2] - **Inventory**: - Industrial silicon: Social inventory was 54.5 tons, enterprise inventory was 16.8 tons, industry inventory was 71.3 tons, and futures warehouse receipt inventory was 25.4 tons [2] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 24.0 tons [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: Different prices and their changes for silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. were provided [2] - **Photovoltaic Industry**: - Prices: The price of silicon wafers (N - type - 210mm) was 1.7 yuan/piece, the price of battery cells (TOPCon - 210mm) was 0.315 yuan/watt, etc. [2] - Profit: The profit of DMC enterprises was - 777 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises was 200 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News On the evening of October 10, PowerChina (601669) announced that a consortium composed of its subsidiaries and itself signed contracts for two photovoltaic IPP projects in Saudi Arabia, with a total contract value of approximately 11.719 billion yuan. The projects are located in the Afif town of Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia, with a construction period of 26 months [4] 3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon was - 1, indicating a bearish view; the trend intensity of polysilicon was 1, indicating a bullish view [4]

商 品 研 究 丙烯：需求转弱，短期弱势运行 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 2025 年 10 月 14 日 LPG：低位抗跌，夜盘反弹 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2511 | 4,082 | 0.29% | 4,121 | 0.96% | | 期货价格 | PG2512 | 3,975 | -0.43% | 3,985 | 0.25% | | | PL2601 | 6,177 | -0.45% | 6,109 | -1.10% | | | PL2602 | 6,215 | -0.54% | 6,140 | -1.21% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2511 | 52,358 | -5608 | 58,615 | -4445 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide industry - wide investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment inclination: - **Gold and Silver**: Gold trend intensity is 1, and silver trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately positive view [9]. - **Copper**: Copper trend intensity is 2, showing a strong positive view [13]. - **Zinc**: Zinc trend intensity is 0, suggesting a neutral view [16]. - **Lead**: Lead trend intensity is 0, also a neutral view [18]. - **Tin**: Tin trend intensity is 1, a moderately positive view [24]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, aluminum oxide trend intensity is - 1 (negative view), and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [27]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0, both neutral views [31]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, and silver is set to冲击 50 (presumably a price level) [2][4]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Market sentiment has improved, leading to a price rebound [2][11]. - **Zinc**: The price will experience a weak - side oscillation [2][14]. - **Lead**: The reduction of domestic inventory restricts price decline [2][17]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts [2][20]. - **Aluminum**: The price will fluctuate within a certain range; the center of aluminum oxide price will move downward; cast aluminum alloy prices will follow those of electrolytic aluminum [2][25]. - **Nickel**: Under pressure from the macro - economic sentiment, nickel prices will oscillate at a low level [2][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: Pressured by both the macro - economic situation and the actual market, the price decline is limited by the cost [2][29]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price Movements**: - **Gold**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 yesterday was 927.56, with a daily increase of 2.88%, and the night - session closing price was 936.72, up 2.45%. Gold T + D closed at 926.48 yesterday, up 3.20%, and 933.67 at night, up 1.80% [5]. - **Silver**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 yesterday was 11531, up 4.02%, and the night - session closing price was 11710.00, up 4.22%. Silver T + D closed at 11453 yesterday, up 3.53%, and 11669 at night, up 2.55% [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2512 showed different changes compared with the previous day. The SPDR Gold ETF's position increased by 4 to 1017.16, while the SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 8 to 15443.76 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged at 70728 kg, and the inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 44605 kg to 1124456 kg. The Comex silver inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 3660531 ounces to 522463797 ounces [5]. Copper - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 85120, down 0.92%, and the night - session closing price was 86520, up 1.64%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading price closed at 10802, up 4.13% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 78954 to 291422, and the open interest decreased by 14284 to 201831. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic - trading decreased by 11695 to 29402, and the open interest increased by 583 to 323000 [11]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Copper inventory increased by 2926 to 32890 tons, and the LME Copper inventory decreased by 50 to 139350 tons. The LME Copper cash - 3M premium decreased by 31.19 to 226.78 [11]. - **News**: China's exports and imports in September both exceeded expectations. The European largest copper producer Aurubis raised the European refined copper price for 2026 [11][13]. Zinc - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22255, down 0.07%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - trading price closed at 2984.5, down 0.98% [14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 2566 to 177344, and the open interest decreased by 4835 to 101699. The trading volume of the LME Zinc decreased by 5593 to 16666, and the open interest increased by 621 to 220860 [14]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Zinc inventory decreased by 1030 to 59614 tons, and the LME Zinc inventory decreased by 475 to 37475 tons. The LME Zinc cash - 3M premium increased by 42.45 to 100.45 [14]. - **News**: China's exports and imports in September exceeded expectations [15]. Lead - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17095, down 0.26%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - trading price closed at 2014.5, down 0.30% [17]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 30286 to 66594, and the open interest decreased by 807 to 43988. The trading volume of the LME Lead increased by 2032 to 13567, and the open interest decreased by 3233 to 143335 [17]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Lead inventory decreased by 499 to 29569 tons, and the LME Lead inventory remained unchanged at 237000 tons. The LME Lead cash - 3M premium decreased by 6.22 to - 38.22 [17]. - **News**: China's exports and imports in September exceeded expectations, and the Chinese Ministry of Transport issued a method for collecting special port fees for US ships [18]. Tin - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 282110, down 1.48%, and the night - session closing price was 282800, down 0.26%. The LME Tin 3M electronic - trading price closed at 35350, down 3.99% [21]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 1793 to 106939, and the open interest decreased by 3722 to 30938. The trading volume of the LME Tin decreased by 9 to 180, and the open interest increased by 53 to 13988 [21]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 64 to 5745 tons, and the LME Tin inventory decreased by 25 to 2385 tons. The LME Tin cash - 3M premium decreased by 5 to - 62 [21]. - **News**: There were multiple macro - economic and industry news, such as China's export control on rare - earth items and the investigation of Qualcomm for antitrust violations [22]. Aluminum and Related Products - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20885, down 95, and the night - session closing price was 20975. The LME Aluminum 3M price closed at 2757, up 11. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum Oxide main contract was 2820, down 36, and the night - session closing price was 2807. The closing price of the Aluminum Alloy main contract was 20410, down 130, and the night - session closing price was 20490 [25]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Aluminum, LME Aluminum, Shanghai Aluminum Oxide, and Aluminum Alloy showed different changes compared with previous periods [25]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 0.80 to 64.20 million tons, and the LME Aluminum inventory decreased by 0.28 to 50.60 million tons. The prices and premiums of related products also changed [25]. - **News**: The Chinese Ministry of Transport issued a method for collecting special port fees for US ships [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121410, down 770, and the closing price of the Stainless - Steel main contract was 12655, down 125 [29]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 10068 to 149002, and the trading volume of the Stainless - Steel main contract increased by 146677 to 306704 [29]. - **Industry Chain Data**: The prices of electrolytic nickel, high - nickel pig iron, stainless - steel products, and related premiums and profits showed different changes [29]. - **News**: There were multiple industry news, such as the Indonesian government's takeover of a nickel - mining area and China's suspension of non - official subsidies for imported copper and nickel from Russia [29][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's September import and export data exceeded expectations, with exports in US dollars up 8.3% year - on - year and imports up 7.4% year - on - year [7][8]. - Glass is short - term weak and medium - term in a volatile market; sugar is under pressure due to supply surplus expectations [9][10]. - Different commodities have different price trends, such as gold continuing to hit new highs, silver approaching a 50 - high, etc. [13] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Today's Discovery - China's September import and export data in US dollars showed strong growth, with export growth at a six - month high and import growth at a 17 - month high. The acceleration of imports may be related to policy - based financial tools and project starts [7][8]. 3.2 Director's Top Picks Glass - Short - term: Market has large differences on future production cuts, downstream has sufficient inventory, and real - estate market is weak, so the spot market is weak. - Medium - term: Anti - deflation and anti - involution policies are still in the window period, and the previous high futures premium has changed, so be cautious at low levels [9]. Sugar - Brazil's sugar production and export situation: As of September 16, 25/26 season, cumulative sugar production was 3039 million tons, and September exports decreased. - India has a large - scale production increase expectation, with an expected 3490 million tons in the 25/26 season. - China's sugar imports remain at a high level, with an expected import volume of 500 million tons in both 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [10]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report Precious Metals - Gold continues to hit new highs, and silver approaches a 50 - high. The report provides detailed price, trading volume, inventory, and other data [13][17]. Base Metals - Copper: Market sentiment improves, and prices rise. - Zinc: Weakly volatile. - Lead: Domestic inventory reduction limits price decline. - Tin: Pay attention to macro - impacts. - Aluminum: Ranges in a volatile market; alumina's center of gravity moves down; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [13][23][26]. Other Metals and Minerals - Nickel: Macro - sentiment turns bearish, and prices are low - level volatile. - Stainless steel: Macro and reality jointly exert pressure, and the lower - cost limit restricts price elasticity. - Carbonate lithium: Warehouse receipts are largely liquidated, providing upward momentum. - Industrial silicon: Limited upside space. - Polysilicon: There are many self - discipline meetings this week, warehouse receipts are slightly liquidated, and market sentiment may improve [13][39][42]. Building Materials and Energy - Iron ore: Widely volatile. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Weak reality and weakening expectations may lead to a slight decline in steel prices. - Coke and coking coal: Macro - expectations are fluctuating, and prices are weakly volatile. - Logs: Fluctuate repeatedly [13][51][60]. Chemicals - PX and PTA: Weak in the medium term. - MEG: 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage [13][66].