2026年01月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边趋势偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边趋势偏强 | 2 | | MEG：单边趋势偏强 | 2 | | 合成橡胶:偏强运行，但关注边际估值压力 | 5 | | LLDPE：风偏继续外溢，基差走弱明显 | 7 | | PP：排产低位维持，利润暂修复有限 | 8 | | 烧碱：低位震荡 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 10 | | 甲醇：震荡有支撑 | 11 | | 尿素：震荡中枢上移 | 13 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 15 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 16 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 | 17 | | 丙烯：趋势偏强，但涨势放缓 | 17 | | PVC：区间震荡 | 20 | | 燃料油：强势上涨，波动持续上升 | 21 | | 低硫燃料油：延续上行趋势，外盘现货高低硫价差再次跌入低点 | 21 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市；04空单逐步减仓观望、10空单酌情持有 | 22 | | 短纤：短期趋势偏强20260126 | 25 | | 瓶片：短期趋势偏强20260 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of crude oil is 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook. The range of trend strength is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [7]. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices are driven higher by geopolitical factors, and Brent may challenge $70 per barrel [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures rose $1.71 per barrel, a 2.88% increase, to $61.07 per barrel. ICE Brent crude futures contract 03 rose $1.82 per barrel, a 2.84% increase, to $65.88 per barrel. SC2603 crude oil futures rose $10.40, a 2.37% increase, to $449.80 per barrel [1]. Crude Oil Arbitrage - **Mexico Gulf**: The negative spreads of Vasconia, Castilla, and Napo widened, while the negative spread of Arab Heavy narrowed slightly, and the spread of Maya remained stable [2]. - **Atlantic**: The spread of WTI narrowed significantly, possibly due to rising freight costs. The spreads of Eagle and Azeri widened, indicating strong import demand and geographical advantages respectively [2]. - **Northwest Europe**: Similar to the Atlantic, the spread of WTI MEH narrowed, while those of Eagle Ford and Azeri widened [4]. - **Mediterranean**: The negative spreads of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, and Bonny Light all improved, with the latter two showing significant improvement [4]. - **Asia**: The spreads of Duri and Maya remained stable, while the negative spread of Basrah Heavy increased slightly. The spread of Napo narrowed but the arbitrage window remained open, and the spread of Mars remained negative [5]. Key Market News - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium restored the transportation capacity of a major oil - export route from Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan's oil production was affected in December, with daily output dropping to just over 1.5 million barrels [6]. - Iraq's oil exports in December totaled 1.07651 billion barrels [6]. - Saudi Arabia's export value increased by 10.0% in November, with oil export value rising by 5.4% [6]. - Iran's missile capabilities and defense efficiency have improved compared to the "12 - day war" in 2025. An Iranian official warned the US and Israel against taking aggressive actions [6]. - Mexico is evaluating whether to stop oil shipments to Cuba due to concerns about US retaliation. The Trump administration is considering a full - scale blockade of Cuba's oil imports [6]. - There are signs that Israel is still seeking to attack Iran [6].

2026年01月26日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：强现实支撑，高位震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：上游工厂减产，盘面震荡偏强 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 6 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 26 日 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 148,010 | 5,510 | 6,660 | 8,920 | 20,010 | 26,63 ...

2026年01月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 螺纹钢：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 热轧卷板：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 | 4 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 4 | | 焦炭：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 6 | | 焦煤：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 6 | | 动力煤：供需趋于双弱，短期价格窄幅波动 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2026 年 1 月 26 日 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,142 | 18 | 0.58 | | 期 货 | HC2605 | 3,305 | 17 | 0.52 | | | | 昨日成 ...

2026年01月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：多重因素影响，短期震荡偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆题材不足，油粕比回升 | 2 | | 豆粕：或跟随美豆震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 7 | | 棉花：震荡偏强20260126 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：节前旺季现货偏强 | 10 | | 生猪：腊八需求预期落地，关注供应矛盾 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 26 日 棕榈油：多重因素影响，短期震荡偏强 豆油：美豆题材不足，油粕比回升 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,910 | 涨跌幅 -0.38% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,012 | 涨跌幅 1.14% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 1 月 27 日 09:30，国家统计局将公布中国 2025 年 12 月及 1 至 12 月累计规模以上工业企业利润。 2026 年 1 月 26 日 本周热点前瞻 2026-01-26 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 重点关注国内宏观政策变化、国际地缘政治局势，美国总统特朗普以及美联储官员讲话等因素对于期货市场 的影响。 【本周热点前瞻】 1月26日 点评：1月26日15:00，国新办将就2025年商务工作及运行情况举行新闻发布会，关注该发布会内容及其对 于相关期货价格的影响。 1 月 29 日 03:00，美联储 FOMC 公布利率决议及政策声明，预期美联储将联邦基金利率保持不变。 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Last week, the K-shaped divergence in the market widened, with the small-cap growth style significantly outperforming the large-cap value style. The core drivers of the divergence include the absence of major systemic risks in the stock market, concerns about domestic policies cooling the market, and positive news in the industrial sector [1]. - In the pre-holiday period, with the macro environment remaining stable and the economy being supported, the "Spring Rally" in the stock market is expected to continue. However, the government's intention to regulate the pace of the slow bull market may affect market volatility. Attention should be paid to the growth targets set in local two sessions and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and the selection of the new chairman [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Stock Market Performance**: Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.53%, the S&P 500 declined 0.35%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.06%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 fell 0.9%, Germany's DAX declined 1.57%, and France's CAC 40 dropped 1.4%. In the Asia-Pacific market, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.17%, and the Hang Seng Index declined 0.36%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84% [7]. - **Sector Performance**: In terms of weekly sector performance, building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel led the gains, while banks, communications, and non-bank finance were the top three decliners [1]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 91/114 points, 74/45 points, 179/251 points, and 221/294 points respectively [3]. - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach. The core operating ranges for the IF2602, IH2602, IC2602, and IM2602 contracts are 4591 - 4803 points, 2962 - 3099 points, 8398 - 8961 points, and 8219 - 8772 points respectively [3]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [3]. 3.3 Index Valuation Tracking As of January 16, the price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.14 times, that of the CSI 300 Index was 14.25 times, and that of the SSE 50 Index was 11.76 times. The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI 500 Index was 37.53 times, and that of the CSI 1000 Index was 50.31 times [12][14]. 3.4 Market Fundamentals Review - **Margin Trading**: The balance of margin trading in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in relevant charts [14]. - **Funding Rates**: Last week, the funding rate remained flat, and the central bank made net injections [15].

2026 年 1 月 26 日 商 品 研 究 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 148,010 | 5,510 | 6,660 | 8,920 | 20,010 | 26,630 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 14,725 | 75 | 450 | 865 | 1,650 | 1,960 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 752,840 | 164,142 | -572,380 | -368,586 | -342,491 | 658,919 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 488,280 | -21,328 | -12,019 | 76,442 | 123,183 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2026年1月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：中期震荡市 | 供应 | 截至2026年1月22日，国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计296条(19.95万吨/日），其中在产212条，冷修停产84条。全国浮法玻璃日产量为 15.07万吨，与15日持平。 | | --- | --- | | | 截至2026年1月22日，浮法玻璃行业开工率为71.62%，与15日持平；浮法玻璃行业产能利用率为75.57%，与15日持平。 | | 需求 | 深加工： 截至20260115，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.3天，环比+7.9%，同比+86.4%。目前来看，随着春节脚步临近，加工厂多数进 | | | 入赶工期，虽收尾、散单为主，但订单可执行天数略有增加，目前集中在10天附近，家装之类仍以低金额散单为主。 | | 库存 | 截止到20260122，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存5321.6万重箱，环 ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2026年1月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：趋势仍偏强 | 供应 | PX国产装置变化不大，浙石化装置降负荷，1成左右预计2-3周时间，福佳大化12月扩能30万吨，总体开工率88.9%（-0.5%）。海外装置方 面，韩国GS55万吨装置重启、台塑装置负荷提升，科威特82万吨装置检修。亚洲装置开工率80.6%（-0.4%）。 进口方面，内外价差再次打开，一季度进口单月提升至90万吨左右。PX进入累库格局。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | PTA加工费修复，本周PTA装置开工率维持在76.9%。本周逸盛新材料360万吨和英力士125万吨装置兑现检修计划，独山能源300万吨装置 1.14附近重启，其250万吨装置计划本月底前停车，能投100万吨装置计划1月20日附近重启。 | | 观点 | 节前单边趋势偏强。3-5反套，5-9正 ...