期货研究 烧碱：旺季需求仍有期待 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 09合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2560 830 2594 34 2025 年 8 月 1 日 【市场状况分析】 宏观端，关注 8 月贸易战超预期风险，同时近期反内卷情绪有所走弱。烧碱在此轮反内卷过程中基本面 并没有明显改善，驱动不足，目前反内卷政策也未涉及烧碱行业。 目前烧碱由于处于需求淡季，涨价动力不足，但又受液氯偏弱影响，成本支撑强，未来需要关注耗氯下 游对烧碱供应的影响。此外，需要关注 08 合约仓单对市场的冲击，因此烧碱短期承压，长期看，烧碱旺季 需求仍有期待。 【趋势强度】 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 山东地区主要氧化铝厂家采购 32%离子膜碱自 8 月 1 日起价格下调 10 元/吨，执行出厂 760 元/吨。 烧碱趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that asphalt prices are in a high - level oscillation, and investors should be vigilant about a potential rise in crude oil prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2508, the yesterday's closing price was 3,683 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the overnight closing price was 3,669 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.38%. The trading volume was 1,025 lots with a decrease of 546 lots, and the open interest was 1,533 lots with a decrease of 362 lots. For BU2509, the yesterday's closing price was 3,659 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.25%, and the overnight closing price was 3,654 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.14%. The trading volume was 145,613 lots with a decrease of 45,926 lots, and the open interest was 125,992 lots with a decrease of 5,504 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 81,140 lots with no change [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 08) was 102 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan compared to the previous day; the 08 - 09 inter - period spread was 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the Shandong - South China spread was 185, a decrease of 20; the East China - South China spread was 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,785 yuan/ton with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,915 yuan/ton, while the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 4,058 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,841 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,905 yuan/ton. The refinery operating rate was 34.91%, a decrease of 1.00% compared to the previous period; the refinery inventory rate was 25.87%, a decrease of 0.35% [1]. 3.2 Market Information - **Capacity Utilization**: From July 24 - 30, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 33.1%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%. The reason was that although some refineries reduced production, some major refineries in Shandong and Jinling Petrochemical maintained stable production [13]. - **Maintenance Volume**: From July 24 - 30, 2025, the domestic asphalt plant maintenance volume was 60.4 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons or 5.9% compared to the previous week. The reason was that some refineries in Xinjiang and Shandong resumed asphalt production [13]. - **Shipment Volume**: From July 23 - 29, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 41.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. In the Northeast region, refinery production decreased and high - price transactions slowed down, while in the East China region, shipments increased significantly after supply recovery [13]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The asphalt trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the resumption progress of upstream production [1]. - For polysilicon, the short - term sentiment has cooled down, and the market should be treated as a callback [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon (Si2509): The closing price was 8,760 yuan/ton, with a change of - 525 yuan compared to T - 1, - 930 yuan compared to T - 5, and 995 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume was 410,371 lots, with a decrease of 194,790 lots compared to T - 1, 762,508 lots compared to T - 5, and 819,936 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest was 212,932 lots, with a decrease of 29,745 lots compared to T - 1, 123,342 lots compared to T - 5, and 148,144 lots compared to T - 22 [2]. - Polysilicon (PS2509): The closing price was 49,130 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5,575 yuan compared to T - 1 and 4,635 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 565,838 lots, with an increase of 595 lots compared to T - 1 and a decrease of 557,957 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest was 126,989 lots, with a decrease of 37,501 lots compared to T - 1 and 45,575 lots compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: - Industrial silicon: The spot premium (against East China Si5530) was + 1,175 yuan/ton, with a change compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The near - month contract to continuous - first spread was - 135 yuan/ton, and the cost of buying near - month and selling continuous - first inter - period was 62.5 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 505.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price and Profit Data**: - Industrial silicon: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 9,800 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 1 and 300 yuan compared to T - 5. The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 2,536 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 525 yuan compared to T - 1 and 1,180 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - feeding polysilicon was 46,500 yuan/ton, with an increase of 500 yuan compared to T - 5 and 12,000 yuan compared to T - 22. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 17.6 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.6 yuan compared to T - 1 and 0.7 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 540,000 tons, with an increase of 0.5 million tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 1.2 million tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory was 171,000 tons, with a decrease of 0.61 million tons compared to T - 5 and 5.2 million tons compared to T - 22 [2]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 229,000 tons, with a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared to T - 5 and 4.3 million tons compared to T - 22 [2]. - **Raw Material Cost Data**: - For industrial silicon, the price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 340 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 320 yuan/ton. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1,250 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was 885 yuan/ton [2]. - For polysilicon, the price of N - type re - feeding polysilicon trichlorosilane was 3,350 yuan/ton, and the price of silicon powder (99 silicon) was 10,450 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News In September 2024, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a notice to further regulate the supervision of existing "agricultural - photovoltaic complementary" photovoltaic composite projects. For legally and合规ly built photovoltaic composite projects using general cultivated land to place photovoltaic arrays, land - using units must fulfill planting obligations, and hardening the ground, destroying the plough layer, and leaving land idle are prohibited [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook (the range of trend intensity is [- 2, 2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish) [4].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 1 日 黄金：FOMC 释放鹰派预期 白银：高位回落 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2510 | 770.28 | -0.45% | 770.92 | 0.12% | | | 黄金T+D | 3,342.30 | 0.43% | 766.40 | 0.07% | | | Comex黄金2510 | #N/A | #N/A | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2510 | 9008 | -2.00% | 8935.00 | -1.37% | | 价格 | 白银T+D | 8960 | -2.2 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on LPG and propylene, analyzing their fundamentals, market trends, and relevant industry information as of August 1, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The import cost of LPG is decreasing, and the raw material cost support for propylene is weakening [1][2] Group 4: Fundamental Data Futures Prices - PG2509 closed at 4,003 yesterday with a daily decline of 1.21%, and 3,984 in the night session with a decline of 0.47% - PG2510 closed at 4,441 yesterday with a daily decline of 0.67%, and 4,429 in the night session with a decline of 0.27% - PL2601 closed at 6,545 yesterday with a daily decline of 0.38%, and 6,520 in the night session with a decline of 0.38% - PL2602 closed at 6,609 yesterday with a daily decline of 0.27%, and 6,604 in the night session with a decline of 0.08% [2] Position and Trading Volume - PG2509 had a trading volume of 131,528 yesterday, an increase of 55,838 from the previous day, and an open interest of 85,719, an increase of 2,044 - PG2510 had a trading volume of 31,328 yesterday, an increase of 10,611 from the previous day, and an open interest of 66,367, an increase of 920 - PL2601 had a trading volume of 2,343 yesterday, a decrease of 326 from the previous day, and an open interest of 4,700, a decrease of 292 - PL2602 had a trading volume of 202 yesterday, a decrease of 17 from the previous day, and an open interest of 1,156, a decrease of 149 [2] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 447 yesterday, up from 398 the previous day - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 467 yesterday, up from 418 the previous day - The spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was -295 yesterday, up from -350 the previous day - The spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was -195 yesterday, down from -145 the previous day - The spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was -220 yesterday, down from -195 the previous day [2] Key Industrial Chain Data - The PDH operating rate was 72.6% this week, down from 73.1% last week - The MTBE operating rate was 67.8% this week, down from 69.0% last week - The alkylation operating rate was 46.2% this week, down from 46.9% last week [2] Group 5: Market Trends - The trend strength of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0, indicating a neutral market trend for both [6] Group 6: Market Information - Saudi Aramco's August 2025 CP prices are out, with propane at $520/ton, down $55/ton from last month, and butane at $490/ton, also down $55/ton from last month. The landed cost in US dollars is $548/ton for propane and $518/ton for butane, and the landed cost in RMB is about 4,327 yuan/ton for propane and 4,090 yuan/ton for butane [8] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. [9] - There are also multiple domestic LPG plant device maintenance plans, including those of Shengli Heavy Oil, Haike Ruilin, etc. [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The hydrogen energy sector is a key focus in the platinum market. Platinum is a crucial catalyst in proton exchange membrane technology, while palladium is used in hydrogen purification but has low technology penetration due to high costs [1][2][63]. - The hydrogen energy industry is currently in a bottleneck period, facing challenges in technology, cost, safety, and infrastructure. These factors limit the growth of downstream hydrogen demand [2][26]. - By 2030, platinum demand in the hydrogen energy sector is expected to reach around 5.53 tons. In the next 5 years, this demand will remain small and unlikely to impact the overall platinum supply - demand balance. The growth of platinum demand is slower than expected due to the decline in fuel - cell vehicle sales, and proton exchange membrane electrolyzers may surpass fuel - cell vehicles as the main application scenario for platinum demand in the hydrogen energy sector [2][59][60]. Summary by Directory 1. Tracing the Origins: Physical and Chemical Properties of Platinum and Palladium and Their Applications in the Hydrogen Energy Industry - In 2024, global platinum demand in hydrogen - related fields was only about 44 thousand ounces, accounting for 0.53% of the total demand. There is no separate statistical data for palladium in the hydrogen - related field [6]. - Platinum is mainly used in hydrogen production and utilization, while palladium is mainly used in the purification stage of hydrogen production [10]. - Platinum is a catalyst material for proton exchange membranes. Proton exchange membranes are widely used in hydrogen production and utilization. Platinum has high catalytic activity and acid - resistance stability, making it suitable for this role [12][18][19]. - Palladium can selectively permeate hydrogen and is used in hydrogen purification. However, due to high costs, the palladium membrane method has low penetration compared to the PSA method [20][21][25]. 2. A Long Road Ahead: Analysis of the Hydrogen Energy Industry Development - **Current situation**: Electrolytic water hydrogen production is growing rapidly, but fuel - cell vehicles, the main application of hydrogen fuel cells, are facing difficulties in promotion, with a decline in new promotion numbers [2][27]. - **Advantages**: Hydrogen energy has excellent coupling with renewable energy, which can solve the mismatch between renewable energy power generation and power consumption [29][30]. - **Policy differences**: China views the hydrogen energy industry as an important means to achieve the dual - carbon goal. Japan and South Korea focus on fuel - cell vehicles, while EU countries represented by Germany emphasize environmental protection and energy supply [2][34][36]. - **Bottlenecks**: The hydrogen energy industry is restricted by technology, cost, safety, and infrastructure, which limit the growth of downstream hydrogen demand [2][26][38]. 3. Long - Term Strategy: Estimation of Platinum and Palladium Demand in the Hydrogen Energy Industry - **Single consumption of core applications**: In fuel - cell vehicles, the estimated platinum consumption per passenger car is about 25 grams, and per commercial vehicle is about 65 grams. For proton exchange membrane electrolyzers, the estimated platinum consumption per megawatt is about 700 grams. Reducing platinum loading is a major research direction in the proton exchange membrane industry [42][43][44]. - **Development prediction of related fields**: For proton exchange membrane electrolyzers, the maximum installed capacity of announced projects is about 520GW, but after excluding early - stage projects, the maximum installed capacity from 2025 - 2030 is 225GW. It is predicted that by 2030, the new installed capacity of proton exchange membrane electrolyzers will have a compound annual growth rate of 44% - 56%. For proton exchange membrane fuel cells, considering infrastructure challenges, it is predicted that by 2030, fuel - cell commercial vehicle sales will have a small compound annual decline of 1% - 5%, and passenger vehicle sales will have a larger decline of 23% - 27% [48][50][54]. - **Prediction results**: By 2030, platinum demand in the hydrogen energy sector is expected to reach around 5.53 tons. In the next 5 years, this demand will be small, the growth rate is slower than expected, and proton exchange membrane electrolyzers may become the main application scenario for platinum demand [59][60][61].

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Based on macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report provides a forecast of the trend of various futures contracts on July 31, 2025, including the expected trend, support, and resistance levels of each contract [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Alerts - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to study the formulation of the 15th Five - Year Plan. It emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [8]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%, and Chairman Powell said it was too early to determine a rate cut in September [10]. - The US announced tariffs on imported semi - finished copper products, Brazilian products, and Indian goods, which affected the copper market [10][11]. - The eurozone's Q2 GDP growth slowed, and Canada's central bank kept interest rates unchanged [12]. - The General Administration of Customs adjusted trading limits for certain industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures contracts [12]. 2. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 2.1 Stock Index Futures - On July 30, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 had different intraday performances. It is expected that on July 31, stock index futures will fluctuate and consolidate. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 4173 and 4200 points and support at 4130 and 4100 points [15][19]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On July 30, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures T2509 and TL2509 both rose. It is expected that on July 31, they will fluctuate strongly. T2509 will attack resistance at 108.40 and 108.46 yuan, with support at 108.18 and 108.01 yuan; TL2509 will attack resistance at 118.7 and 118.9 yuan, with support at 117.9 and 117.6 yuan [36][40]. 2.3 Precious Metal Futures - Gold futures AU2510 rose slightly on July 30. It is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 765.2 and 760.6 yuan/gram and resistance at 772.7 and 773.8 yuan/gram. Silver futures AG2510 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 9008 and 8943 yuan/kg and resistance at 9152 and 9166 yuan/kg [46][54]. 2.4 Base Metal Futures - Copper futures CU2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 78500 and 78000 yuan/ton and resistance at 78900 and 79200 yuan/ton. Alumina futures AO2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 3307 and 3287 yuan/ton and resistance at 3326 and 3349 yuan/ton [59][63]. 2.5 Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil futures SC2509 rose on July 30. It is expected to fluctuate strongly on July 31, attacking resistance at 539 and 547 yuan/barrel, with support at 529 and 525 yuan/barrel. PTA futures TA509 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 4820 and 4800 yuan/ton and resistance at 4880 and 4910 yuan/ton [95][99]. 2.6 Agricultural Futures - Bean meal futures M2509 rose on July 30. It is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 2978 and 2960 yuan/ton and resistance at 3022 and 3038 yuan/ton [104].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 31 日 中国豆油出口可能性及影响分析 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 近期，市场消息称中国出口 15 万吨豆油去印度，中国是否将从豆油的净进口国转为豆油的净出口 国？本文将对中国豆油出口的可能性及这种情况将对国内外的油脂市场产生怎样的影响进行分析。 根据海关数据，2025 年 1-6 月，中国出口豆油 13.9 万吨，已经超过 2023、2024 年全年的出口量。 中国出口豆油是中国需要豆粕、其他国家需要豆油的结果。中国出口豆油是全球植物油供需自我调整 的结果。 中国 9-10 月出口豆油能一定程度缓解部分压榨企业的豆油库存压力，11 月之后出口豆油将提振国内 豆油价格。中国出口豆油，尤其出口豆油给印度，将对棕榈油价格和国内豆棕价差产生影响。不过上述影 响的程度需要看豆油出口数量及持续性。由于中美关系的不确定，中国豆油出口或难以持续。 中国豆油出口增加主要关注进料加工方式下的豆油出口。在产地给出中国大豆压榨利润，中国大量采 购大豆，中国豆油库存持续上升的时候，很可能就是中国豆油出口的时间窗口，目前来看每年的 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 31 日 铝：小幅震荡 氧化铝：价格走弱 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20625 | 20 | -165 | 260 | 820 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20615 | ー | l | l | ー | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2608 | 2 | -31 | 1 ୧ | 239 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 125168 | 5183 | -19441 | -25888 | -97960 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 261363 | -11344 | -66119 | 7766 | 131691 | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成 ...