1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of various energy - chemical futures on October 15, 2025. Overall, many commodities are under downward pressure due to factors such as weak demand prospects in the oil market, tariff policies, and high inventory levels. Some commodities are in a state of shock or have short - term trading opportunities, but the long - term outlook remains cautious [2][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The cost - end support from crude oil is weak, and the unilateral trend is weak. However, there may be positive factors in the aromatic hydrocarbon segment. It is recommended to pay attention to the long PXN strategy. The expected device maintenance this week will lead to a decline in the operating rate, but the supply - demand gap still exists [4][9]. - **PTA**: Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread. The unilateral trend is weak. The cost support from the polyester industry chain is weak, and the spot market supply in East China is still sufficient [9]. - **MEG**: The supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the unilateral trend is weak. The overall load will be slightly adjusted down this week, and the load in October is expected to reach its peak. The impact of the US fee policy on ethane producers is limited [10]. Rubber - The rubber market is in a state of shock operation. The trading volume and open interest have decreased, and the basis has strengthened. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased slightly, and the domestic butadiene rubber market is weak [11][12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is in a short - term weak operation. The fundamental pressure has increased, with high supply and inventory pressure. The cost end is also under pressure, and the macro - trade conflict may further affect the market [15][17]. Asphalt - The asphalt price has declined with the oil price. The weekly production has increased, the factory inventory has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The trend intensity is weak [19][32]. LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: The trend is weak. The market is affected by tariff policies, and the inventory pressure is large. The cost support from crude oil is limited, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment [33][34]. - **PP**: The trend is still weak. The market is suppressed by factors such as the resurgence of the trade war, the sharp decline in oil prices, and high supply. The short - term situation is difficult to reverse [37][38]. Caustic Soda - In the short term, do not chase short positions. The supply pressure in Shandong and Hebei is not large, and the demand from alumina plants in Hebei is strong. The cost support is strong, but the rebound height may be limited [41][43]. Pulp - The pulp market is in a state of shock operation. The spot price is basically stable, and the futures market is in a consolidation stage. The port inventory is at a relatively high level, and the downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand [46][49]. Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The market price is slightly weak, and the downstream demand is average. The trend intensity is weak [51][52]. Methanol - The methanol market is under shock pressure. The spot price index has increased slightly, but the market atmosphere has weakened. The port inventory has accumulated, and the upstream inventory needs to be closely monitored [54][57]. Urea - In the short term, the market is in a shock state, and the medium - term trend is under pressure. The spot transaction has improved, but the social inventory is high, and the domestic demand is weak. The price may continue to decline [59][61]. Styrene - Stop the profit of short positions. The decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward shift in the valuation center of chemicals. The inventory accumulation expectations of pure benzene and styrene in October have turned into destocking expectations [62][63]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has changed little. The market is in a weak shock state, and the downstream is mainly for rigid demand. The short - term market is expected to be stable [64][65]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: It is relatively resistant to decline at a low level. The price of CP paper goods has decreased, and the PDH operating rate has declined [67][71]. - **Propylene**: The demand has weakened, and it is in a short - term weak operation [67]. PVC - The PVC market trend is weak. Affected by tariff policies and inventory pressure, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the social inventory continues to accumulate [74]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The price center has reached a new low this year, and the short - term weakness continues. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has continued to decline, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [77]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - The container freight index (European line) is in a shock market. The futures prices of different contracts have different changes, and the freight rate index shows a mixed trend [79].

2025 年 10 月 15 日 LPG：低位相对抗跌 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 丙烯：需求转弱，短期弱势运行 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2511 | 4,137 | 1.35% | 4,143 | 0.15% | | 期货价格 | PG2512 | 3,980 | 0.13% | 3,993 | 0.33% | | | PL2601 | 6,084 | -1.51% | 6,066 | -0.30% | | | PL2602 | 6,129 | -1.38% | 6,090 | -0.64% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2511 | 73,466 | 21108 | 52,134 | -6481 | | | PG251 ...

Overall Investment Ratings - Gold: Continue to reach new highs [2] - Silver: Spot contradictions ease, price surges then retreats [2] - Copper: Market cautious, price oscillates [2] - Zinc: Oscillates weakly [2] - Lead: Inventory increases, price under pressure [2] - Tin: Focus on macro - impact [2] - Aluminum: Ranges within an interval [2] - Alumina: Center of gravity moves downward [2] - Foundry aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Macro sentiment turns bearish, nickel price oscillates at a low level [2] - Stainless steel: Macro and reality jointly exert pressure, cost below limits price elasticity [2] Core Views - The report analyzes the trends of various precious metals and basic metals, including their price movements, trading volume, inventory changes, and relevant macro - and industry - news [4][8][11] Summary by Metals Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing price of SHFE Gold 2512 was 927.56, up 2.88%, and the night - session closing price was 936.72, up 2.45%. The trading volume of SHFE Gold 2512 was 446,705, an increase of 12,139 from the previous day [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of SHFE gold was 70,728 kg, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **News**: Fed Chair Powell hinted at another rate cut and that the balance - sheet reduction is nearing an end, warning of a deteriorating labor - market outlook [4]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE Silver 2512 was 11,531, up 4.02%, and the night - session closing price was 11,710, up 4.22%. The trading volume of SHFE Silver 2512 was 1,550, a decrease of 966 from the previous day [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of SHFE silver was 1,124,456 kg, a decrease of 44,605 kg from the previous day [4]. - **News**: Similar to gold, influenced by Fed's potential rate - cut and balance - sheet reduction news [4]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE copper's main contract was 84,410, down 0.83%, and the night - session closing price was 84,890, up 0.57%. The trading volume of SHFE copper's main contract was 210,984, a decrease of 80,438 from the previous day [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of SHFE copper was 36,295 tons, an increase of 3,405 tons from the previous day [8]. - **News**: Powell opened the door for Fed rate cuts; investigation of Chile's El Teniente copper - mine accident will take months; Codelco's August copper production hit a 22 - year low [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE zinc's main contract was 22,220, down 0.16%. The trading volume of SHFE zinc's main contract was 124,307, a decrease of 53,037 from the previous day [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of SHFE zinc was 58,494 tons, a decrease of 1,120 tons from the previous day [11]. - **News**: Powell opened the door for Fed rate cuts [11]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE lead's main contract was 17,050, down 0.26%. The trading volume of SHFE lead's main contract was 43,201, a decrease of 23,393 from the previous day [14]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of SHFE lead was 30,705 tons, an increase of 1,136 tons from the previous day [14]. - **News**: Powell opened the door for Fed rate cuts; "New Fed Wire" said the Fed stays on the rate - cut track [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE tin's main contract was 282,110, down 1.48%, and the night - session closing price was 282,800, down 0.26%. The trading volume of SHFE tin's main contract was 106,939, an increase of 1,793 from the previous day [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of SHFE tin was 5,745 tons, a decrease of 64 tons from the previous day [17]. - **News**: Multiple macro - and industry - news including Fed's rate - cut hints and international trade - related events [18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Foundry Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE aluminum's main contract was 20,860, down 25 from the previous day. The closing price of SHFE alumina's main contract was 2,805, down 15 from the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum - alloy main contract was 20,380, down 30 from the previous day [21]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum - ingot social inventory was 64.20 million tons, unchanged from the previous day [21]. - **News**: Li Qiang emphasized expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic cycle [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 120,830, down 580 from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,565, down 90 from the previous day [24]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory - related data emphasized in the text [24]. - **News**: Indonesian forestry group takes over a nickel - mine area; China suspends an unofficial subsidy for Russian copper and nickel imports; Indonesia sanctions mining companies; Trump may impose 100% tariffs on China [24][25][26]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 15 日 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱 PTA：中期仍偏弱 MEG：1-5 月差反套 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 期货 PX 主力 PTA 主力 MEG 主力 PF 主力 SC 主力 昨日收盘价 6338 4440 4061 6060 449.6 涨跌 -92 -70 -50 -72 -4.1 涨跌幅 -1.43% -1.55% -1.22% -1.17% -0.90% 月差 PX1-5 PTA1-5 MEG1-5 PF12-1 SC11-12 昨日收盘价 -52 -58 -88 -22 -1 前日收盘价 -52 -54 -74 -44 -1.3 涨跌 0 -4 -14 22 0.3 现货 PX CFR 中国（美 金/吨） PTA 华东（元/吨） MEG 现货 石脑油 MOPJ Dated 布伦特 (美 金/桶) 昨日价格 779.17 4385 4150 553 62.58 前日价格 791.33 4440 4178 566.75 64.25 涨跌 -12.16 -55 -28 -13.75 -1.68 现货加工费 PX ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US officially imposed restrictions such as port fees on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors. China strongly opposed this and announced counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd., highlighting China's determination to counter in key areas [7]. - For LPG, the price of domestic propane at the cost of arrival (tax - included) is basically below 4,000 yuan/ton. The demand has increased significantly, but it has not rebounded under speculative demand. The short - term pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign is clear, which is bullish for the long - short spread on the futures market, but the impact of Sino - US trade disputes and crude oil price trends should be noted [9][10]. - For cotton, the short - term trend is stable. Before mid - November, attention should be paid to the development of international economic and trade situations. The short - term trend of cotton futures is expected to be weakly volatile [11]. - For the container shipping index (European line), it will be volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the change in shipping capacity in November. The recent sharp rise was affected by China's counter - measures against Hanwha Ocean, but it has no substantial impact on the European line. The fundamentals show that most shipping companies are expected to be fully loaded in week 43, and the no - show rate needs further observation [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Products - **Gold**: Continues to reach new highs. The Fed Chairman Powell hinted at another interest rate cut and that the balance - sheet reduction is nearing the end, which is favorable for gold prices [21]. - **Silver**: The contradiction in the spot market has eased, and the price has risen and then fallen [21]. - **Copper**: The market is cautious, and the price is volatile. The production of Codelco in Chile has decreased, and China's copper imports in September have shown different trends [25][27]. - **Zinc**: The trend is weakly volatile. The Fed's attitude towards interest rates affects the market, and inventory and price data show certain changes [28]. - **Lead**: The inventory has increased, and the price is under pressure. The Fed's interest - rate policy also has an impact on the lead market [31]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to the macro - impact. The price of tin has declined, and inventory and price differences have changed [34]. - **Aluminum**: Ranges within a certain interval. Alumina's price center moves down, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed [38]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has turned bearish, and the nickel price is oscillating at a low level. Stainless steel is under pressure from both the macro - environment and the actual situation, but the cost limits the downward space [41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is improving, and the warehouse receipts are being cleared. The short - term trend is relatively strong [44]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand pattern is weak [47]. - **Polysilicon**: Meetings are being held this week, and the futures market is expected to rise [48]. 3.2 Building Materials and Energy - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuates widely. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed, and relevant policies have an impact on the market [52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The current situation is weak, and the expectation has also weakened. Steel prices may decline slightly [54]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: The quotations in the main production areas are unstable, and the prices fluctuate widely. The prices of manganese ore at ports have moved down [58]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The expectations are fluctuating, and the prices fluctuate widely. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed [61][62]. - **Log**: The price oscillates repeatedly [64]. 3.3 Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene and PTA**: The medium - term trend remains weak [17]. - **MEG**: The spread between January and May contracts is in a reverse - arbitrage situation [17]. - **Rubber**: The price oscillates [17]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The trend is weak [17]. - **Asphalt**: The price has declined following the oil price [17]. - **LLDPE and PP**: The trends are weak [17]. - **Caustic Soda**: Do not short in the short term [17]. - **Pulp**: The price oscillates [17]. - **Glass**: The price of raw glass is stable [17]. - **Methanol**: The price is under pressure and oscillates [17]. - **Urea**: The short - term trend is oscillating, and the medium - term trend is under pressure [17]. - **Styrene**: Stop loss on short positions [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has not changed much [17]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The driving force from the origin is limited. Attention should be paid to the support at the lower level [20]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price moves within a certain range. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade relations [20]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: The trade concerns have resurfaced, and the prices may rebound and oscillate [20]. - **Corn**: The price has rebounded [20]. - **Sugar**: The price oscillates within a certain range [20]. - **Egg**: The price oscillates [20]. - **Live Pig**: The bottom of the spot price has not been reached [20]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [20].

国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025年10月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 | 3 | | 铜：市场谨慎，价格震荡 | 5 | | 锌：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 铅：库存增加，价格承压 | 9 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 10 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：重心下移 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：宏观情绪转承压，镍价低位震荡 | 14 | | 不锈钢：宏观与现实共振施压，下方成本限制弹性 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：需求向好叠加仓单去化，短期走势偏坚挺 | 16 | | 工业硅：弱势供需格局 | 18 | | 多晶硅：本周会议陆续召开，盘面看涨对待 | 18 | | 铁矿石：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：弱现实叠加预期转弱，钢价或小幅回调 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：弱现实叠加预期转弱，钢价或小幅回调 | 21 | | 硅铁：主产区报价松动，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：锰矿港口报价下移，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][6]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, due to weak current situations and weakening expectations, steel prices may experience a slight回调 [2][7]. - Silicon iron is likely to have wide - range fluctuations as the quotes in the main production areas are loosening [2][11]. - Manganese silicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations with the downward movement of manganese ore port quotes [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal are subject to repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][14][15]. - Logs are expected to experience repeated fluctuations [2][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 782.0 yuan/ton, down 22.5 yuan or 2.80%. The previous day's position was 499,799 hands, an increase of 14,460 hands. Among spot prices, most imported and domestic ores decreased slightly. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 14, the General Office of the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on the implementation measures for collecting special port dues on US ships [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3,061 yuan/ton and 3,241 yuan/ton respectively, down 0.81% and 0.70%. Spot prices in major regions decreased. There were also changes in basis and spreads [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In early October 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data showed that the daily output of crude steel increased by 7.5%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. Steel inventory increased by 8.2% compared with the previous ten - day period. In August, China's steel exports decreased by 3.3% month - on - month, and imports increased by 10.4% month - on - month. The weekly data on October 8 showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon decreased. Spot prices of silicon iron and some manganese ore decreased. There were changes in basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 13, the quotes of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions changed, and the prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port decreased. The manganese ore market is affected by macro - sentiment and downstream procurement rhythm, and the proportion of US - built or - operated ships in imported manganese ore ships is relatively small [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased by 0.7%. Spot prices of most coking coal and coke remained stable, with some changes in basis and spreads [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 14, the General Office of the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on the implementation measures for collecting special port dues on US ships [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [16]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of most logs remained stable, with some small fluctuations in the week - on - week and day - on - day comparisons [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8% [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [20].

2025年10月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地驱动有限，关注下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间运行，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易担忧情绪再起，或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：有所反弹 | 6 | | 白糖：区间震荡 | 7 | | 棉花：短期平稳，关注国际经贸形势 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡运行 | 10 | | 生猪：现货底部未现 | 11 | | 花生：关注产区天气 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 15 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地驱动有限，关注下方支撑 豆油：区间运行，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,330 | -0.36% | 9,3 ...

2025年10月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：宏观情绪转承压，镍价低位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：宏观与现实共振施压，下方成本限制弹性 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：需求向好叠加仓单去化，短期走势偏坚挺 | 4 | | 工业硅：弱势供需格局 | 6 | | 多晶硅：本周会议陆续召开，盘面看涨对待 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 15 日 镍：宏观情绪转承压，镍价低位震荡 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）9 月 12 日钢联资讯：因违反林业许可证规定，印尼林业工作组接管 PT WedaBav Nickel 超过 148 公顷矿区。印尼政府将负责管理该区域，并对该公司处以罚款。该矿区位于北马鲁古省哈马黑拉岛，今年 已通过的 RKAB 镍矿批复量级达 4200 万湿吨，其中包括 1000 万吨湿法矿，总矿区占地 4.7 万公顷，包含 15 个矿点，印尼林业工作组接管区域占总矿区面积 0.3%，预计影响镍矿产量约 600 金属吨/月。 2）据外媒报道，中国暂 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 15 日 研 究 所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI11 月原油期货收跌 0.79 美元/桶，跌幅 1.33%，报 58.70 美元/桶；布伦特 12 月原油期货 收跌 0.93 美元/桶，跌幅 1.47%，报 62.39 美元/桶；SC2512 原油期货收跌 6.20 元/桶，跌幅 1.37%， 报 446.30 元/桶。 1、原油套利 | 套利路线 | 代表性油种 | 套利窗口状态 (2025-10-13) | 市场情况说明 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 进入 USGC | Arab Light, | 关闭（- | 相对于美国本土基准 WTI MEH，大西洋盆地的轻质原油 | | (Cracking) | Forties | 5.91/bbl,−7.17/bbl） | 进口经济性不佳，抑制跨大西 | | | | | 洋进口。 | | 进入 USGC | Maya, | 接近平衡/略亏（- | 重质原油（如 Maya）与基准 | | (Coking) | Vas ...