Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The supply of pure benzene has decreased, and short - term positive spreads are the main strategy [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Fundamental Tracking - Futures prices: BZ2603 decreased from 5763 to 5734 (-29), BZ2604 decreased from 5749 to 5706 (-43), BZ2605 increased from 5701 to 5706 (5) [1] - Spread data: BZ2603 - BZ2604 increased from 14 to 28 (14), BZ2604 - BZ2605 decreased from 48 to 0 (-48) [1] - Paper prices: N + 1 decreased from 5695 to 5620 (-75), N + 2 decreased from 5695 to 5615 (-80) [1] - Inventory data: Pure benzene East China port inventory decreased from 10.6 to 9.1 (-1.5), styrene East China port inventory decreased from 114420 to 94135 (-20285) [1] - Price differences: Shandong pure benzene price decreased from 5646 to 5583 (-63), Shandong pure benzene price - hydrogenated benzene price decreased from -219 to -282 (-63) [1] News - As of October 9, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 9.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons from the previous period (a 33.7% month - on - month decrease) and an increase of 1.6 million tons from the same period last year (a 21.33% year - on - year increase) [2] - From September 29 to October 9, the estimated arrival was about 1.2 million tons, and the estimated pick - up was about 2.7 million tons [2] - On October 9, the non - long - term agreement trading volume of Shandong pure benzene was about 1100 tons, with a self - pick - up price range of 5680 - 5720 yuan/ton (average price of 5700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from the previous working day) [2] - In the East China region, the spot negotiation price of pure benzene was 5720 - 5780 (average price 5750, a decrease of 35), the transaction price for the end of October was 5730 - 5770 (average price 5750, a decrease of 35), for the end of November was 5720 - 5740 (average price 5730, a decrease of 55), and for the end of December was 5700 - 5730 (average price 5715, a decrease of 70) [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of pure benzene is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]

【现货消息】 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 13 日 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2470 800 2500 30 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 以山东地区为基准，10 月 10 日局部液碱价格调整，鲁西南地区液碱价格持续上涨，供应量减少预期情 况下，价格上调。鲁东地区在省外下游企业采购情况下，液碱压力有所缓解，省内主力下游依旧压车情况尚 未缓解。 【市场状况分析】 10 月山东、河北地区存在新增检修，烧碱供应压力不大。需求端，河北氧化铝厂集中采购烧碱，下周 山东地区预期去库，短期山东市场现货偏强。从氧化铝行业看，氧化铝高产量、高库存格局，使得利润被持 续压缩，边际产能供应未来可能受利润影响。虽然广西地区年底到明年年初存在 560 万吨新增产能的备货 需求，后期氧化铝备货将带动国内 50 碱货源流转，但低利润的格局也可能使得其他氧化铝厂的备货水平下 滑。在囤货未开启前，市场也难以判断囤货带来的缺口。 整体看，山东地区现货压力阶 ...

2025 年 10 月 13 日 工业硅：上游继续复产，逢高布空思路 多晶硅：周末会议召开，盘面逢低找买点 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,685 | 45 | -370 | 215 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 225,514 | 14,983 | -92,623 | -120,099 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 167,035 | -9,528 | -92,930 | -114,445 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 48,965 | -1,800 | -2,400 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 203,722 | 2,411 | 18,936 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 91,0 ...

2025 年 10 月 13 日 LPG：短期偏弱运行 丙烯：需求转弱，短期弱势运行 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2511 | 4,070 | -0.05% | 4,083 | 0.32% | | 期货价格 | PG2512 | 3,992 | 0.35% | 3,996 | 0.10% | | | PL2601 | 6,205 | -0.08% | 6,173 | -0.52% | | | PL2602 | 6,249 | -0.05% | 6,220 | -0.46% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2511 | 57,966 | -12408 | 63,060 | -3804 | | | PG2 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 13 日 原油：风偏改善，短线或开启反弹 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【国际原油】 WTI11 月原油期货收跌 2.61 美元/桶，跌幅 4.24%，报 58.90 美元/桶；布伦特 12 月原油期货 收跌 2.49 美元/桶，跌幅 3.82%，报 62.73 美元/桶；SC2511 原油期货收跌 21.20 元/桶，跌幅 4.55%， 报 445.00 元/桶。 1、USGC 原油套利（更新至 10 号） | 基准/配置 | 替代油种 | 状态 | 数值 (美元/ | 市场供需情况解读 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 桶) | | | | Arab Extra Light | Close d | -5.9 | 中东轻质原油对美湾缺乏吸引力，表明 美国轻质页岩油供应充足，炼厂对进口 | | | | | | 轻质原油需求疲软。 | | | Arab Light | Close | -6.28 | 类似 Arab Extra Light 的情况，印证美湾 轻质原油 ...

2025 年 10 月 13 日 股指期货: 波澜再起 注 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读: 1、市场回顾与展望:今年长假期间,市场未出现黑天鹅,节后Ａ股无意外出现开门红。不过,进入 到 10月、仅两天的交易日,边际上也出现诸多新变化:1两融防风险消息再度出现;2周五中美贸易方 面再出现新的变化,并在周五晚间进一步发酵和升级。我们此前在周报中已经持续反复强调。类似风险偏 好改善推动的估值拉升行情,出现转折的直接因素,包括国内和国外两方面。国内主要在于监管出现防风 险动作;海外主要在于经济或者地缘因素带来的外部扰动。 从更大周期角度而言，我们认为经过本次黑天鹅的犹动,行情慢牛特征会更明确。从监管角度来看, 既然外部不时存在黑天鹅的可能,因此国内股市必然需要未雨绸缪防范疯牛,试想若在 6124点或者 5178 点出现贸易摩擦，将是金融系统不可承受之重。因此后期监管层对慢牛的重视和把控无疑会持续。而对于 投资者来说,在看多市场的同时,也须时刻意识到市场的风险,这也会带来行情妙作的降温。我们再次强 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 若安期货研 从8月底以来,政策面 ...

2025年10月12日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地驱动有限，关注下方支撑及宏观风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：中美经贸关系加剧盘面波动 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易摩擦忧虑再度升温，盘面或反弹 | 8 | | 豆一：反弹震荡 | 8 | | 玉米：震荡偏弱 | 13 | | 白糖：低位震荡 | 19 | | 棉花：新棉上市压力有所释放 | 26 | | 生猪：去库不通畅，现货底未现 | 33 | | 花生：关注产区天气 | 39 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 12 日 棕榈油：产地驱动有限，关注下方支撑及宏观 风险 豆油：中美经贸关系加剧盘面波动 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：长假期间印尼 B50 消息刺激盘面反弹，但产地供给端并未出现实际偏紧信号，MPOB 报告超预 期累库中止涨势，整体仍维持区间运行，棕榈油 01 合约周涨 2.28%。 豆油：假 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday until the daytime closing on Friday, the trading volume of commodity options decreased, and implied volatility (IV) almost declined across the board. On Friday night, macro - information increased market panic, and it is expected that IV will rise significantly in the short term. There are many end - of - life game opportunities for option buyers of expiring options on Monday (bottle chips, rapeseed meal, PTA, caustic soda, rapeseed oil, cotton, short - fiber, soda ash, methanol, glass, and sugar near - month contracts) and Wednesday (crude oil near - month contract). Attention should be paid to the risks of rising volatility and being exercised [4]. - Agricultural products are relatively less affected. Beans may have price - rising opportunities due to import constraints, and the IV of corresponding bean options is relatively low, which can be observed as long - term option - buying layout varieties, and call options can be bought at an appropriate time [4]. - Under the weak fundamental and macro - environment of some non - ferrous and new - energy varieties, more call options can be sold to obtain income, and put options can be bought for directional trading or hedging [4]. - For varieties with strong fundamentals, volatility can be observed, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold at low prices and high volatility to gradually build long positions [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The overall trading volume of the commodity option market this week was 6,438,734, a decrease of 0.11% from last week, and the open interest was 9,557,880, an increase of 0.17% from last week. Among them, the trading volume of agricultural products was 1,599,862.75, an increase of 0.39% from last week; the trading volume of energy and chemical products was 2,661,095.25, a decrease of 0.01% from last week; the trading volume of black metals was 401,971.5, a decrease of 0.46% from last week; the trading volume of precious metals was 604,400.75, a decrease of 1.48% from last week; the trading volume of non - ferrous and new - energy varieties was 1,171,403.75, an increase of 0.3% from last week [7]. 3.2 Corn Options - The closing price of the main contract c2511 was 2125, down 53, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 124,100, an increase of 13,703 from last week, and the open interest was 383,371, an increase of 15,154 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 10.62 to 9.82 [15]. 3.3 Soybean Meal Options - The closing price of the main contract m2511 was 2900, down 5, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 294,614, a decrease of 78,523 from last week, and the open interest was 1,033,413, an increase of 29,869 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 15.24 to 11.67 [16]. 3.4 Rapeseed Meal Options - The closing price of the main contract rm2511 was 2458, up 2, with 1 trading day remaining. The total trading volume this week was 125,135, an increase of 11,621 from last week, and the open interest was 188,419, an increase of 14,047 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 29.68 to 23.0 [17]. 3.5 Palm Oil Options - The closing price of the main contract p2511 was 9320, up 146, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 137,584, a decrease of 13,943 from last week, and the open interest was 159,813, an increase of 22,108 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 20.56 to 16.64 [18]. 3.6 Soybean Oil Options - The closing price of the main contract y2511 was 8308, up 138, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 50,526, a decrease of 2,659 from last week, and the open interest was 110,669, a decrease of 6,590 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 14.57 to 11.76 [20]. 3.7 Rapeseed Oil Options - The closing price of the main contract oi2511 was 10232, down 99, with 1 trading day remaining. The total trading volume this week was 78,760, an increase of 1,466 from last week, and the open interest was 117,792, an increase of 6,435 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 24.53 to 14.4 [21]. 3.8 Peanut Options - The closing price of the main contract pk2511 was 7786, down 12. The total trading volume this week was 143,362, an increase of 111,981 from last week, and the open interest was 126,256, an increase of 47,710 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased slightly from 14.53 to 14.38 [22]. 3.9 Yellow Soybean No. 1 Options - The closing price of the main contract a2511 was 3953, up 18, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 40,498, a decrease of 6,520 from last week, and the open interest was 95,611, a decrease of 2,971 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 11.43 to 9.58 [23]. 3.10 Yellow Soybean No. 2 Options - The closing price of the main contract b2511 was 3617, up 8, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 37,607, a decrease of 4,560 from last week, and the open interest was 49,036, an increase of 12,990 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 16.0 to 10.45 [24]. 3.11 Ethylene Glycol Options - The closing price of the main contract eg2511 was 4127, down 82, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 18,246, an increase of 9,615 from last week, and the open interest was 38,874, an increase of 10,430 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 14.22 to 11.61 [25]. 3.12 Styrene Options - The closing price of the main contract eb2511 was 6743, down 206, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 104,692, an increase of 25,779 from last week, and the open interest was 99,287, an increase of 25,520 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 17.99 to 16.16 [26]. 3.13 Sugar Options - The closing price of the main contract sr2511 was 5518, up 11, with 1 trading day remaining. The total trading volume this week was 91,045, a decrease of 6,956 from last week, and the open interest was 300,087, an increase of 6,975 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 12.39 to 10.39 [27]. 3.14 Cotton Options - The closing price of the main contract cf2601 was 13325, down 80, with 44 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 214,938, an increase of 78,620 from last week, and the open interest was 490,224, an increase of 77,596 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 11.62 to 9.57 [28]. 3.15 PTA Options - The closing price of the main contract ta2511 was 4510, down 114, with 1 trading day remaining. The total trading volume this week was 385,737, an increase of 144,364 from last week, and the open interest was 335,302, an increase of 74,644 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 23.02 to 16.2 [29]. 3.16 PX Options - The closing price of the main contract px2512 was 6490, down 150, with 13 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 16,658, a significant decrease from last week, and the open interest was 23,469, an increase of 15,242 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 18.02 to 16.26 [30]. 3.17 Caustic Soda Options - The closing price of the main contract sh2511 was 2420, down 63. The total trading volume this week was 143,556, an increase of 50,630 from last week, and the open interest was 106,911, an increase of 21,096 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 31.88 to 21.11 [31]. 3.18 Rubber Options - The closing price of the main contract ru2601 was 15315, down 155, with 54 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 12,402, a decrease of 22,076 from last week, and the open interest was 42,424, an increase of 4,193 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 19.89 to 18.73 [32]. 3.19 BR Rubber Options - The closing price of the main contract br2511 was 11220, down 210, with 11 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 22,220, a significant decrease from last week, and the open interest was 17,469, an increase of 3,604 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 25.7 to 21.92 [33]. 3.20 Polyethylene Options - The closing price of the main contract (assumed) was 7019, down 80, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 24,028, an increase of 1,486 from last week, and the open interest was 56,346, an increase of 7,430 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 9.89 to 8.74 [34]. 3.21 Polypropylene Options - The closing price of the main contract pp2511 was 6651, down 166, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 37,271, an increase of 2,961 from last week, and the open interest was 98,340, an increase of 20,257 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 9.64 to 9.42 [35]. 3.22 Methanol Options - The closing price of the main contract ma2511 was 2255, down 39. The total trading volume this week was 208,323, an increase of 68,535 from last week, and the open interest was 285,762, an increase of 48,102 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 21.19 to 13.4 [36]. 3.23 Liquefied Petroleum Gas Options - The closing price of the main contract pg2511 was 4070, down 220, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 42,903, a slight decrease from last week, and the open interest was 42,637, an increase of 18,342 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 21.43 to 16.38 [37]. 3.24 PVC Options - The closing price of the main contract v2511 was 4652, down 160, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 102,281, an increase of 18,834 from last week, and the open interest was 253,204, an increase of 55,006 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 15.1 to 12.75 [38]. 3.25 Crude Oil Options - The closing price of the main contract sc2511 was 461.9, down 29.4, with 3 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 72,598, an increase of 32,140 from last week, and the open interest was 45,021, an increase of 18,972 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 41.12 to 29.34 [39]. 3.26 Iron Ore Options - The closing price of the main contract i2511 was 811.5, up 7.0, with 10 trading days remaining. The total trading volume this week was 130,400, an increase of 7,948 from last week, and the open interest was 267,334, an increase of 36,386 from last week. The IV of at - the - money options decreased from 22.03 to 17.36 [40].

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 01 黄金：关税战再起，避险刺激接力 白银：关注海外逼仓情况 07 锡：印尼影响锡价上涨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 02 03 铜：贸易风险显化，供应扰动增强，价格波动放大 铝：周末关税突发扰动市场，风险点聚焦在流动性及衰退主题 氧化铝：重心仍偏下移，估值和驱动持续博弈 04 铸造铝合金：宏观扰动加剧，价格震荡 05 锌：供强需弱延续，关注短期宏观指引 06 铅：供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The macro - sentiment has turned bearish, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. The contradiction between macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory accumulation, along with potential uncertainties from Indonesia, will put pressure on nickel prices [4]. - Stainless steel: Macro and real - world factors are jointly pressuring prices, but the cost floor limits the downside elasticity. It is expected to oscillate weakly next week [5]. - Industrial silicon: Inventory has shifted to accumulation, and there are expectations of weakening supply - demand. The supply is expected to exceed demand, and the trading strategy is to sell high [27][32]. - Polysilicon: A weekend industry meeting was held, and policy logic still exists. There are policy expectations, and investors can look for buying opportunities after the market sentiment is released [27][33]. - Lithium carbonate: Macro factors are suppressing prices, and it is expected to operate weakly. The price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 73,000 yuan/ton [62][65]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel**: Macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory accumulation are pressuring prices. Although non - standard nickel fundamentals have marginally improved, the inventory accumulation contradiction in refined nickel remains. Indonesian news may increase uncertainties [4]. - **Stainless steel**: Macro and real - world factors are pressuring demand, and the cost provides a floor. However, the short - term price may oscillate weakly due to factors such as production capacity and inventory [5]. Inventory Tracking - **Refined nickel**: Chinese refined nickel social inventory increased by 5,190 tons to 45,630 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 7,254 tons to 237,378 tons [8]. - **New energy**: There were changes in the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines in October [8]. - **Nickel - stainless steel**: SMM nickel - iron inventory was stable in September, and stainless - steel factory and social inventories changed [8]. Market News - Indonesia has taken measures such as taking over part of the WBN park and suspending the production of some mining companies, which may affect nickel - ore supply [9]. - The US may impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods from November 1, which may impact stainless - steel exports [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Trends - **Industrial silicon**: The futures price oscillated, and the spot price declined. The SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 silicon price was 8,850 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the Inner Mongolia 99 silicon price was 9,000 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton month - on - month) [27]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price declined, and the spot price was stable, with the Friday closing price at 48,965 yuan/ton [27]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Industrial silicon**: Supply: Xinjiang factories are resuming production, and Southwest China may reduce production in the future. October production is expected to increase to 440,000 tons. Inventory has accumulated. Demand: Downstream polysilicon and silicone support consumption, but overall demand improvement is limited [28][29]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply: Production is expected to increase in October and then decline. Inventory has accumulated. Demand: Silicon - wafer production is expected to decrease in October, and the next restocking is expected in mid - October [29][31]. Market Outlook - **Industrial silicon**: The supply - demand situation is weakening, and the trading strategy is to sell high. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt volume [32]. - **Polysilicon**: There are policy expectations. After the market sentiment is released, look for buying opportunities. Focus on the restocking situation in mid - October [33]. Lithium Carbonate Price Trends - The futures contract price oscillated. The 2511 contract closed at 72,740 yuan/ton (down 1,300 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the 2601 contract closed at 72,900 yuan/ton (down 1,100 yuan/ton week - on - week). The spot price was 73,550 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton week - on - week) [62]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: Weekly production reached a new high of 20,635 tons. Zangge Mining obtained new mining rights [63]. - **Demand**: The short - term spot market is strong, but macro - level export controls and potential US tariffs may impact demand [63]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory decreased to 134,800 tons, with upstream inventory accumulating during the holiday and downstream and trading - link inventory decreasing [63]. Market Outlook - The price is expected to operate weakly, with the futures price in the range of 70,000 - 73,000 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to focus on positive spreads for cross - period trading and increase the proportion of selling hedging [65][66][67].