| 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2025/8/4 | 莫骁雄 | 王蒙 | 李先飞 | Z0012691 | Z0002529 | Z0019413 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | moxiaoxiong@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | 色及贵金属组 | 张再宇 | 王宗源(联系人) | 刘雨萱 | Z0021479 | F03142619 | Z0020476 | | | | | | | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 今天 | 上月 | 前一交易日 | 上周 | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2025/8/1 | 2025/7/28 | 2025/7/7 | 202 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 8 月 4 日 国债、地方债、金融债券利息增值税恢复 风险提示： 的潜在影响 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 王笑 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 Wangxiao2@gtht.com 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 yukan@gtht.com 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 财政部、税务总局发布《关于国债等债券利息收入增值税政策的公告》，自 2025 年 8 月 8 日起， 对在该日期之后（含当日）新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。 对在该日期之前已发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券(包含在 2025 年 8 月 8 日之后续发行的部 分）的利息收入，继续免征增值税直至债券到期。上述金融债券，是指依法在中华人民共和国境内设 立的金融机构法人在全国银行间和交易所债券市场发行的、按约定还本付息并由金融机构持有的有价 证券。 该政策出台后我们需要注意相关债券现券以及国债期货可能的特征变动，同时我们需要留意不同 类型的投资机构面临的潜在可能选择。 存量债券免税延续下老券短期是否会更受青睐，同 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Metals and Minerals - Gold, Silver, Zinc, Tin, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Iron Ore, Logs: Negative or Weak Outlook [-1] [2] [24] - Copper, Lead, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Steam Coal: Neutral Outlook [0] [12] [18] Energy - Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Negative Outlook [-1] [4] Chemicals - PTA, MEG, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, PVC: Negative or Weak Outlook [-1] [2] [4] Agricultural and Livestock - Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Sugar, Cotton, Egg, Live Pig, Peanut: Varying Degrees of Outlook [-1, 0] [4] Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Negative Outlook [-1] [4] 2. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including their price trends, fundamental data, and macro - industry news. The trends of different commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic data, and geopolitical events. For example, the weak non - farm payroll data in the US has led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, which has an impact on precious metals and other commodities [7] [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm data is weak, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have shown certain fluctuations, with some contracts having positive night - trading gains [2] [6]. - **Silver**: It has fallen from a high level, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot have also fluctuated, with some contracts having negative daily gains [2] [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot premium is firm, which limits price declines. The trend strength is 0. Macro - economic data and industry events such as project evaluations in Peru and tariff policies in the US have an impact on the copper market [12] [14]. - **Zinc**: It is in a downward oscillation, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of zinc futures and spot have declined, and inventory data has also changed [15]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction limits price drops, and the trend strength is 0. The prices of lead futures and spot have shown little change, and inventory has decreased [18]. - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of tin futures and spot have fluctuated, and inventory data has changed [20] [21]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity has shifted downward. Alumina is in continuous inventory accumulation, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is - 1 [25] [27]. - **Nickel**: The multi - empty game has intensified, and nickel prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The prices of nickel futures and related products in the industrial chain have fluctuated [28] [29]. - **Stainless Steel**: It has returned to fundamentals, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot have shown little change [29]. Energy - Related Commodities - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The sentiment has been realized, and they are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures and spot have changed, and inventory and position data are also provided [54] [55]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption has recovered, and it is oscillating and stabilizing. The trend strength is 0. The prices of steam - coal futures and spot in different regions are reported, and position data is also given [59] [61]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances still exist, and wide - range oscillations may continue. The trend strength is 0. The prices of carbonate - lithium futures and spot have fluctuated, and market data such as trading volume and open interest are provided [34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a weak pattern. The trend strength is - 1. The prices of industrial - silicon futures and spot have declined, and inventory data has changed [37] [38]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term sentiment continues to cool down. The trend strength is - 1. The prices of polysilicon futures and related products in the photovoltaic industry have fluctuated [38]. - **PTA**: The trend is weak, and attention should be paid to positive spreads in monthly differentials. The trend strength is not explicitly stated but is implied as weak [67]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend remains weak. The trend strength is not explicitly stated but is implied as weak [67]. Agricultural and Livestock Commodities - **Palm Oil**: With the ebb of macro and crude - oil factors, wait for low - level long - position building. The trend strength is not explicitly stated [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is mainly in an oscillatory adjustment, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade agreement. The trend strength is not explicitly stated [4]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Hold short positions as appropriate, and it may continue to be weak. The trend strength is - 1 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Non - farm payroll data weakened, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][9] - Silver: Fell from a high, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][9] - Copper: Firm spot premium restricts price decline, and the trend strength is 0 [2][13] - Zinc: Oscillated downward, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][16] - Lead: Declining inventory restricts price drop, and the trend strength is 0 [2][17] - Tin: Traded in a range, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][23] - Aluminum: The price center moved down, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][26] - Alumina: Inventory continued to accumulate, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][26] - Cast aluminum alloy: Followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][26] - Nickel: Intensified long - short game, with nickel prices narrowly oscillating, and the trend strength is 0 [2][32] - Stainless steel: Macro factors faded, and prices returned to fundamentals, with steel prices oscillating at a low level, and the trend strength is 0 [2][32] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 yesterday was 770.72, with a daily increase of 0.06%, and the night - session closing price was 781.12, with a night - session increase of 1.33%. Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 8918 yesterday, down 0.98%, and the night - session closing price was 8994.00, up 0.80% [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: US non - farm payrolls in July increased by only 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The Fed was divided over the employment situation [6][8] Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 78,400, up 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 78170, down 0.29% [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: Weak US non - farm employment data led to a sharp rise in interest - rate cut expectations. Peru is evaluating 134 mining projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting August 1 [11][13] Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22320, down 0.11%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closed at 2729.5, down 1.18% [14] - **News**: The deputy governor of the People's Bank of China said that the effect of monetary policy in supporting the real economy was obvious in the first half of the year [15] Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16735, unchanged, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closed at 1974, up 0.23% [17] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 2412 tons to 59948 tons, and LME Lead inventory decreased by 1175 tons to 275325 tons [17] Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 264,950, down 0.13%, and the night - session closing price was 266,370, up 0.80% [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: OPEC + agreed in principle to significantly increase production again in September [21] Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20510, and the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3162 [24] - **Comprehensive News**: China's imports and exports in June all achieved positive year - on - year growth [26] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,770, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,840 [28] - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats. Some nickel - iron smelting projects in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [28][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading enthusiasm in the commodity options market has declined, with implied volatility falling along with trading volume. The actual volatility of most varieties remains at a relatively high level, and the decline rate of implied volatility is gradually slowing down. Additionally, the fluctuations in futures prices and the spread of hot - spot varieties have increased commodity arbitrage opportunities [5]. - The near - month options contracts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will expire on Thursday. The trading volume and open - interest ratios of the call options of the double - silicon varieties continue to increase, and the skew is also rising in a high - level oscillation. It is advisable to consider buying a bull spread portfolio for short - term speculation [5]. - The skew center of the black sector options has declined, and the implied volatility is at a high level, but the premium space compared with the actual volatility is limited. One can consider selling out - of - the - money call options and buying out - of - the - money put options for a skew regression arbitrage strategy, while paying attention to appropriate Delta - neutral hedging. The arbitrage space for rebar options is relatively large [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of the overall market decreased by 0.45%, while the open interest increased by 0.21%. Among different sectors, the trading volume of agricultural products increased by 0.68%, energy and chemical decreased by 0.19%, black decreased by 0.14%, precious metals decreased by 2.76%, and non - ferrous and new energy decreased by 0.98%. The open interest of agricultural products increased by 0.09%, energy and chemical increased by 0.29%, black increased by 0.21%, precious metals increased by 0.48%, and non - ferrous and new energy increased by 0.25% [6]. 3.2 Commodity - Specific Option Data - **Corn Options**: The trading volume and open interest of call and put options showed different changes. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew also decreased [18][19]. - **Soybean Meal Options**: The trading volume decreased, while the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew also decreased [20]. - **Rapeseed Meal Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew also decreased [22]. - **Palm Oil Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased significantly [23]. - **Soybean Oil Options**: The trading volume and open interest showed mixed changes. The implied volatility of at - the - money options increased slightly, and the skew decreased [24]. - **Rapeseed Oil Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [25]. - **Peanut Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased slightly, and the skew increased [26]. - **Yellow Soybean No. 1 Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew increased significantly [27]. - **Yellow Soybean No. 2 Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew increased [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [29]. - **Styrene Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [30]. - **Sugar Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased significantly [31]. - **Cotton Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [32]. - **PTA Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [33]. - **PX Options**: The trading volume and open interest showed significant changes. The implied volatility of at - the - money options had some fluctuations, and the skew had some changes [34]. - **Caustic Soda Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [35]. - **Rubber Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased slightly. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [36]. - **BR Rubber Options**: The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [37]. - **Polyethylene Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [38]. - **Polypropylene Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [39]. - **Methanol Options**: The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [40]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas Options**: The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [41]. - **PVC Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [42]. - **Crude Oil Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options increased slightly, and the skew decreased [43]. - **Iron Ore Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased significantly [44].

Report Core View - The report provides a forward - looking analysis of key events and data releases in the coming week, including economic data from China, the US, and the eurozone, as well as policy - related events, and analyzes their potential impact on the futures market [2][3][4] Key Events and Data Forecasts August 4th - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field in late July, covering 9 categories and 50 products [3] - The economic research institution Sentix will announce the eurozone's August Sentix investor confidence index, with an expected value of 8% and a previous value of 4.5% [4] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the June factory orders, with an expected monthly rate of - 5% and a previous value of 8.2% [5] August 5th - Caixin Bank and the UK's Markit will announce China's July SPGI services PMI (expected 50.0, previous 50.6) and SPGI composite PMI (expected 50.6, previous 51.3) [6] - The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will announce the June trade balance, with an expected value of - $72.6 billion and a previous value of - $71.5 billion [8] - The US ISM will announce the US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI, with an expected value of 51.4 and a previous value of 50.8. A higher value than the previous one will suppress the price increase of gold and silver futures [9] August 6th - The EU Statistics Bureau will announce the eurozone's June retail sales. The expected monthly rate is 0.3% (previous - 0.7%), and the expected annual rate is 1.9% (previous 1.8%). A slightly higher monthly rate than the previous one will slightly help the price increase of related commodity futures [10] - The US EIA will announce the EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending August 1st. A continued decline will help the price increase of crude oil and related commodity futures [11] August 7th - The People's Bank of China will announce China's July foreign exchange reserves (expected $3.33 trillion, previous $3.317422 trillion) and gold reserves (expected 73.98 million ounces, previous 73.9 million ounces) [12] - The Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. The expected central bank benchmark interest rate in August is 4.00%, with a previous value of 4.25% [13] - The US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending August 2nd, with an expected value of 220,000 and a previous value of 218,000. A slightly higher value than the previous one will slightly help the price increase of gold and silver futures and slightly suppress the price increase of other industrial product futures except gold and silver [14] - The US "reciprocal tariff" new tax rates on multiple countries will take effect, with tax rates ranging from 10% to 41% [15][16] August 8th - The People's Bank of China will announce China's July financial statistics, including M2 (expected year - on - year growth of 8.27%, previous 8.30%), new RMB loans (expected 350 billion yuan, previous 2.24 trillion yuan), and social financing scale incremental (expected 1.45 trillion yuan, previous 4.1993 trillion yuan). Higher values than the previous ones will help the price increase of commodity futures, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures [17] - Starting from August 8th, 2025, the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT [18] - The 2025 World Robot Conference will be held from August 8th to 12th [19] - Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will officially resign [20] August 9th - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce China's July CPI (expected year - on - year decline of 0.2%, previous year - on - year growth of 0.1%) and PPI (expected year - on - year decline of 3.3%, previous year - on - year decline of 3.6%). A slightly lower CPI year - on - year increase than the previous one will slightly suppress the price increase of commodity futures, slightly help the price increase of treasury bond futures, and slightly suppress the price increase of stock index futures. A slightly lower PPI year - on - year decline than the previous one will slightly help the price increase of industrial product futures [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, paper pulp, methanol, urea, styrene, PVC: Trend is weak or trending down [-1] [8] [12] - PP,烧碱,纯碱, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [0] [37] [42] [66] - 集运指数（欧线）: Suggest holding short positions, may continue to be weak [25] [75] Core Views - With the approaching deadline of the peace agreement on August 8, Trump's threat of secondary sanctions and tariffs on countries doing business with Russia may impact the oil market. If implemented, it could remove 4 million barrels per day of oil from the market and push crude prices above $100 per barrel [6] [8] - Various commodities in the energy - chemical industry show different trends. Supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment all influence commodity prices [8] [9] [10] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply is marginally more relaxed, month - spread has dropped significantly. Suggest reverse spread on month - spread and short PXN on the short side. 8 - month has no new maintenance, but some plants plan to restart, while PTA demand may decline [8] - **PTA**: Trend is weak, focus on positive spread on month - spread. Polyester factory开工率 is low, raw material inventory - holding willingness is down, and the polyester sector is entering a stocking phase [9] - **MEG**: Unilateral trend is downward. Domestic plant开工率 will rise, polyester device开工率 is low, and attention should be paid to the situation of the main contract changing hands and the ratio of warehouse receipts to positions [10] Rubber - Trend is weak and fluctuating. EU's anti - dumping policy on Chinese tires may impact exports. In June, Chinese tire exports decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [12] [14] Synthetic Rubber - Runs weakly. Short - term price may correct from high levels and enter a volatile pattern in the medium term. Market is affected by news and conflicts, with sample enterprise inventory decreasing and port inventory of butadiene dropping [16] [17] [18] Asphalt - Oscillates at high levels, beware of another rise in crude oil. This week, domestic asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, maintenance volume decreased, and shipment volume increased slightly [19] [31] LLDPE - Trend still faces pressure. In August, maintenance volume will decrease, and new production capacity is expected in the third quarter. Although inventory is lower than the same period last year, it is gradually entering a stocking phase [32] [33] PP - Spot price drops, trading is light. PP futures oscillate weakly, suppressing the spot market atmosphere. Downstream procurement willingness is still low [36] [37] 烧碱 - Although currently in the off - season with limited upward momentum, there are expectations for peak - season demand. In the long term, mid - August plant maintenance and downstream restocking may drive up the spot price [41] Paper Pulp - Oscillates weakly. Demand is weak, downstream paper mills' shipments are poor, and port inventory is high [44] [46] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. Market speculative supplies impact the spot market, causing sales of float glass factories to weaken, with prices in some regions dropping and a slight increase in the South China region [50] [51] Methanol - Oscillates under pressure. Short - term price may correct from high levels and enter a volatile pattern in the medium term. The port market is affected by weather and inventory, and the inland market is affected by olefin plant procurement [56] Urea - Pressure gradually increases. In late July, enterprise inventory increased, and short - term prices may correct from high levels and enter a volatile pattern in the medium term [58] [59] Styrene - Compress profit and take profit in time, short on the short side. Styrene is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and port inventory is accelerating the stocking process [61] [62] 纯碱 - The spot market changes little. Supply is at a high level, downstream demand is tepid, and the market is expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [66] PVC - Weakly oscillates in the short term. Supply is increasing steadily, demand improvement is limited, and inventory has been accumulating for more than five weeks. High - production and high - inventory patterns are difficult to change in the short term [68] [69] [70] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil continues to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil turns down at night. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has significantly retracted [73] 集运指数（欧线） - Hold short positions as appropriate, or the weakness may continue. Freight rates of European and US - West routes are showing a downward trend, and future shipping schedules may be dynamically adjusted [75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The resumption of VAT on the interest income of new - issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds after August 8, 2025, may lead to a "long old bonds, short new bonds" strategy in the market. The mid - term trend of treasury bond futures remains oscillating and bearish, and the basis difference will fluctuate bidirectionally to a reasonable range. The inter - period spread may widen further, and the curve may steepen in the medium term. Credit bonds may be favored in the short - term, and the stratification of credit spreads will be more reasonable in the medium term, benefiting the real economy. The tax adjustment on interest - rate bonds indirectly benefits equity assets, but short - term discount expectations of underlying bond assets of some companies need attention [6]. - There is a large supply - demand gap for soybeans in China before the Spring Festival in 2026. Whether China purchases US soybeans or not, the cost of imported soybeans is difficult to decrease significantly, which will push up the prices of soybean products. It is recommended to buy soybean oil and soybean meal at low prices [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury, Local, and Financial Bond Interest VAT Resumption - **Market Reaction**: After the policy was announced, the interest rate of 25 Attached - interest Treasury Bond 11 showed a "first up then down" trend, indicating that the market first understood the negative impact of the "tax increase" and then realized the value of "old bonds" [6]. - **Bond Market Strategy**: A "long old bonds, short new bonds" strategy may emerge. The CTD of active contracts and corresponding old bonds may have a short - term rally, but the medium - term trend is hard to change. The basis difference will gradually fluctuate bidirectionally from the low - level operation of the past two years to a reasonable range [6]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread between the 09 and 12 contracts may widen further as the pricing will incorporate the tax difference between new and old bonds [7]. - **Curve Shape**: The curve may steepen in the medium term [7]. - **Bond Type Comparison**: Credit bonds may be favored in the short - term, and the stratification of credit spreads will be more reasonable in the medium term, attracting capital inflows to support the real economy. The tax adjustment on interest - rate bonds indirectly benefits equity assets, but short - term discount expectations of underlying bond assets of some companies such as banks and insurance need attention [7][9]. 3.2 Soybean and Its Products - **Supply - demand Situation**: There is a large supply - demand gap for soybeans in China before the Spring Festival in 2026. Whether China purchases US soybeans or not, the cost of imported soybeans is difficult to decrease significantly [10]. - **Price Forecast**: The low - price range of soybean meal is about 3050 yuan/ton, and the high - price range is about 3450 yuan/ton. The low - price range of soybean oil is about 8150 yuan/ton, and the high - price range is about 8650 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy soybean oil and soybean meal at low prices [10]. 3.3 Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows a weakening trend due to weak non - farm payroll data, and silver has fallen from a high level. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [13][16][21]. - **Base Metals**: Copper's spot premium is firm, limiting price declines, with a trend intensity of 0; zinc is oscillating downward, with a trend intensity of - 1; lead's inventory reduction limits price drops, with a trend intensity of 0; tin is oscillating within a range, with a trend intensity of - 1; aluminum's center of gravity is moving down, alumina is accumulating inventory, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, all with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][23][26][29][31][36]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt have different trends. For example, fuel oil continues to decline, and asphalt is oscillating at a high level, with corresponding trend intensities [13][39][65]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, palm oil is waiting to be bought at low levels, and corn is oscillating [13][15].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global supply is ample, with favorable weather in US soybean - growing areas and weak Chinese demand, causing soybean futures to decline for the second consecutive week. The good weather in August, the key period for soybean yield formation, has hit the confidence of bulls. The "global double - harvest" pattern of Brazil and the US will suppress soybean prices until the end of the year. [4] - The Sino - US trade issue is a potential uncertainty. Although the US Treasury Secretary said that an agreement is "almost reached", the market remains cautious. Chinese buyers are turning to South American supplies, and they ordered 3000 tons of Argentine soybean meal this week. [4] - The market is waiting for the new global supply - demand report from the US Department of Agriculture on August 12. Without unexpected positive news, soybean prices are unlikely to rebound quickly. [4] - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean is 0 (only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract in the daytime session on the reporting day). [4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4122 yuan/ton during the day session, down 15 yuan (-0.36%), and 4133 yuan/ton at night, up 7 yuan (+0.17%). [1] - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3010 yuan/ton during the day session, up 4 yuan (+0.13%), and 3023 yuan/ton at night, up 19 yuan (+0.63%). [1] - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 988 cents/bu, down 1.25 cents (-0.13%). [1] - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 280.4 dollars/short ton, up 4.4 dollars (+1.59%). [1] - **Spot Data**: - In East China, the price of soybean meal in Lianyungang was 2960 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day. The price in Zhangjiagang Dafu remained unchanged. [1] - In Shandong, some prices remained unchanged, and some had slight increases or decreases. For example, the price in some regions was 2920 - 2950 yuan/ton, flat to up 20 yuan from the previous day. [1] - In South China, the price was 2930 - 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 - 40 yuan from the previous day. [1] - **Industrial Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 15.5 million tons per day, and the previous trading volume was 41.5 million tons per day. [1] - The inventory data of the previous week was not available (na), and the inventory of the week before was 96.1 million tons. [1] b. Macro and Industry News - On August 1, the CBOT soybean market closed lower for the second consecutive week due to the prospects of a bumper harvest and weak demand. [2][4] - The US Department of Agriculture will release a new global supply - demand report on August 12, and the market is looking forward to more information on production forecasts and export prospects. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price center of aluminum is moving downward, alumina is experiencing continuous inventory accumulation, and cast aluminum alloy prices are following those of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,510, down 250 from a week ago and up 155 from a month ago. The trading volume was 127,617, a decrease of 17,683 from the previous day. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,572, down 60 from a week ago [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3,162, down 60 from the previous day and 266 from a week ago. The trading volume was 275,347, a decrease of 105,822 from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19,920, down 30 from the previous day and 215 from a week ago. The trading volume was 2,098, an increase of 19 from the previous day [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 525,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from a week ago. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 3,790.34, a decrease of 39.92 from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 3,274, unchanged from the previous day and up 19 from a week ago. The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 294, a decrease of 38 from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -249, unchanged from the previous day and up 59 from a week ago. The price of Baotai ADC12 was 19,500, down 100 from the previous day and 200 from a week ago [1]. Other Information - In June, China's imports and exports, exports, and imports all achieved positive year - on - year growth. The import increased by 1.1% and the export increased by 5.8% in US dollars. The export of industrial robots increased by 61.5% in the first half of this year [3].