Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon sectors, with a potential for price corrections. It recommends short - selling industrial silicon on rallies, and a short - term short or intraday short strategy for polysilicon [1][7] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are affected by upstream factory复产 rhythms. If there is large - scale复产, the supply - demand balance will shift to oversupply, driving the price down. Polysilicon is policy - driven, but there is a short - term correction drive. The price transmission from upstream to downstream is not smooth [6][7] Summary by Related Content Price Trends - Industrial silicon futures showed a weak oscillation this week, with the Friday closing price at 8,500 yuan/ton. Spot prices also declined, with Xinjiang 99 - silicon at 9,050 yuan/ton (down 450 yuan week - on - week) and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon at 9,350 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan week - on - week). Polysilicon futures rose and then fell, closing at 49,200 yuan/ton on Friday, and the spot market had weak transactions [1] Supply - Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply: Sichuan's production increased, while Xinjiang's decreased. Overall weekly production increased marginally. Yunnan's复产 was slow. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.4 million tons this week, social inventory increased by 0.5 million tons, and factory inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons, resulting in overall inventory reduction [2] - Demand: Downstream short - term demand was stable. Polysilicon's weekly production increased, boosting the purchase of industrial silicon. Organic silicon's weekly production also increased, but its terminal consumption had limited improvement. The aluminum alloy and export markets had no significant increase in demand [3] Polysilicon - Supply: Short - term weekly production continued to increase, with an estimated production of 120,000 - 130,000 tons in August. Factory inventory decreased due to speculative restocking by downstream buyers [3] - Demand: After the profit of silicon wafers was restored, production increased slightly in August compared to July. However, the price increase transmission from upstream to downstream was not smooth, and the acceptance of component price increases by end - users was yet to be observed [5] Market Outlook Industrial Silicon - Attention should be paid to the upstream factory复产 rhythm. The increase in futures warehouse receipts may affect market sentiment. If there is large - scale复产, the supply - demand balance will shift to oversupply, driving the price down. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies, with an expected price range of 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton next week [6][7] Polysilicon - The short - term market sentiment has cooled down, and there is a correction drive. The price transmission from upstream to downstream is not smooth. It is a policy - driven market, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips, while short - term shorting or intraday shorting may be more appropriate. The expected price range next week is 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - sell industrial silicon on rallies; for polysilicon, short - term shorting or intraday shorting [7] - Inter - period: Consider entering a reverse spread position for PS2509/PS2511 based on futures warehouse receipt registration [8] - Hedging: Recommend upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon factories to sell for hedging [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: The domestic macro sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the fundamentals lack continuous drivers. The market is trading the de - stocking scenario in the second half of the year. Malaysia is expected to continue the inventory accumulation trend in July, but it is conservatively estimated not to exceed 2.2 million tons. The B50 rumor in Indonesia has a low correlation with the price increase. The international oil market may see a systematic upward trend due to reduced export supply, and palm oil is sensitive to this. The bean - palm spread is unlikely to return to par this year, and opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels should be continuously monitored [2][3]. - Soybean oil: The continuous good rainfall in the Midwest of the United States in mid - to - late July is beneficial for improving the yield per unit. Before the USDA August report, CBOT soybeans will maintain a weak fluctuation if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations. The large number of domestic soybean oil export orders has reversed the weak situation, and if this trend continues, it is expected to drive the domestic bean - palm spread closer to the international one [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic - Palm oil: The domestic macro sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Without a strong supply theme, the high price needs strong downstream demand to support it. With weak demand from India, the price at the high level was difficult to rise further. The palm oil 09 contract fell 0.29% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: A large number of domestic soybean oil export orders ignited the trading enthusiasm. The bean - palm spread narrowed significantly, and soybean oil showed signs of a catch - up rise. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.6% last week [1]. 3.2 This Week's Viewpoints and Logic 3.2.1 Palm oil - Fundamental analysis: After the slight increase in inventory in the MPOB June report, the negative impact was digested, and the price rebounded. It is estimated that the production in July will still be difficult to reach 1.8 million tons, and the export volume in the first 25 days was poor, estimated to be less than 1.4 million tons. The demand in the producing areas is expected to remain high, and Malaysia will continue the inventory accumulation trend, but not exceed 2.2 million tons. In Indonesia, the price of various palm oils is high, and the market is quite resistant to price drops. The B50 rumor has a low correlation with the price increase. The production recovery may fall short of expectations, and the inventory will remain below 3 million tons throughout the year. The US biodiesel policy will lead to a reduction in the supply of US soybean oil in the international market, which will drive up the international oil market, and palm oil may be affected [2]. - Market sentiment and trading opportunities: The market has different views on the palm oil production in Malaysia this year. If the production in July - August maintains a good yield per unit, there will be a large inventory accumulation pressure in August - September. If the inventory in Malaysia does not exceed 2.3 million tons, the market may have digested the high - point inventory. If the inventory accumulation in August - September exceeds expectations, palm oil may still have room for correction, but attention should be paid to the potential positive sentiment caused by lower - than - expected production in July - August [2][3]. - Sales area analysis: Except for sunflower oil, the import profit of crude palm oil is higher than that of crude soybean oil. The reconstruction of channel inventory is in progress. As long as the monthly import volume can be maintained above 800,000 tons, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil is difficult to exceed 2.3 million tons. The current fundamentals in the producing areas are not sufficient to stimulate China to open commercial profits, and the bean - palm spread is difficult to return to par [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean oil - International situation: Good rainfall in the Midwest of the United States in mid - to - late July is beneficial for improving the yield per unit. Before the USDA August report, CBOT soybeans will maintain a weak fluctuation if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations. Only positive news from Sino - US trade negotiations can drive up the price of US soybeans [4]. - Domestic situation: The large number of domestic soybean oil export orders has reversed the weak situation. Although the domestic apparent demand for pick - up is poor, oil mills are actively exporting. If this trend continues, it is expected to drive the domestic bean - palm spread closer to the international one. If the purchase of US soybeans for the October shipment has not been made, there is potential for the spread between months and the Brazilian premium to rise, and soybean oil may benefit [4]. 3.3 Disk Basic Market Data - Futures prices: The palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,910 yuan/ton, down 0.29%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,274 yuan/ton, up 1.6%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract closed at 9,524 yuan/ton, up 0.71%; the Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 4,245 ringgit/ton, down 0.72%; the CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 53.90 cents/pound, down 3.61% [8]. - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume of the palm oil main - continuous contract was 2,707,492 lots, a decrease of 767,521 lots; the open interest was 394,141 lots, a decrease of 62,307 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil main - continuous contract was 3,475,013 lots, a decrease of 47,548 lots; the open interest was 499,756 lots, a decrease of 4,882 lots [8]. - Spreads: The rapeseed - soybean 09 spread was 1,250 yuan/ton, down 4.8%; the bean - palm 09 spread was 363 yuan/ton, up 19.7%. The palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 350%; the soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 48 yuan/ton, up 20%; the rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 58 yuan/ton, up 3.57% [8]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 570 lots, an increase of 570 lots; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 3,000 lots, a decrease of 18,495 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,487 lots, with no change [8]. 3.4 Oil Fundamental Information - Production and inventory: Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to recover in July, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. Indonesia's inventory is expected to remain low after the second quarter, and the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia remains high [10][13]. - Export and import: ITS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1.289727 million tons, a 6.71% decrease compared to the same period last month. The EU's cumulative imports of palm oil in 2025 decreased by 330,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils decreased by 640,000 tons [13][15]. - Other indicators: The POGO spread rebounded significantly, the import profit of Indian palm oil started to improve, and the basis of palm oil (South China) for 09 was - 20, while the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu) rebounded [11][13][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures fluctuated downward this week, reaching a low of 19,800 yuan/ton. The traditional off - season characteristics of the market are becoming more obvious, with downstream enterprises on high - temperature holidays, which drags down the orders of recycled aluminum. Although some small and medium - sized enterprises have reduced or stopped production, large factories maintain stable production. The cost support logic still exists, and it is expected that the price of cast aluminum alloy will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [6]. - As of August 1st, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots (factory + social) increased by 0.32 million tons to 11 million tons compared with the previous week, remaining at a high level. The upstream waste aluminum supply is tight, and the downstream automotive sales in July, as a traditional off - season, face growth pressure [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - end: Waste Aluminum - Waste aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a historically medium - high level. The import of waste aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in June 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 1.556 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45% [9][14]. - The refined - scrap price difference shows an oscillatory trend [18]. Supply - end: Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy decreased slightly, and the gap between ADC12 and A00 converged. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy weakened and showed certain seasonal patterns [26][31]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy decreased slightly, while the monthly operating rate increased. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of waste aluminum, and currently, it is estimated to be in an average loss state [36][37]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy decreased rapidly, while social inventory continued to accumulate. The import window of cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [42][44]. - For recycled aluminum rods, information on production and inventory is provided. For example, in terms of production, data from different periods are presented, and the inventory situation in factories is also shown with relevant proportion information [47][49]. Demand - end: Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel vehicles has recovered, which has been transmitted to the die - casting consumption. In July 2024 (July 21 - July 27), the total sales volume of domestic passenger cars reached 467,000, a year - on - year increase of 4.71% and a month - on - month increase of 14.74%. However, in July, as a traditional automotive consumption off - season, there is pressure on automotive sales growth [6][55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the thermal coal industry is a bullish and volatile outlook [1] Core Viewpoint - This week, the spot price of thermal coal at northern ports showed a bullish and volatile pattern. Supply tightened in major production areas due to some coal mines halting or reducing production after completing monthly tasks at the end of July and weather - related disruptions in production or transportation. Non - power demand maintained on - demand procurement at production areas, but downstream power terminals had limited acceptance of the spot price hikes at northern ports [1][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Market Review Domestic Thermal Coal Origin Prices - The report presents price charts of 5500 - kcal thermal coal in Linfen, Shuozhou, and Jinzhong, as well as the pit - mouth prices of 4500/5500 - kcal thermal coal in Ordos [3] Port Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.35 million tons, at Caofeidian Port was 5.12 million tons, at Jingtang Port's Guotou Port Area was 1.3 million tons, and at Guangzhou Xinsha Port was 1.89 million tons [3] Northern and Southern Port Thermal Coal Prices - The report shows price charts of 5500 - kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port, Guangzhou Port, and Fangchenggang Port. As of August 1, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) was 755.43, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) was 1,644.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) was 3,296.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) was 1,269.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 678.00 [5] International Coal Prices - As of July 25, 2025, the price of Australian Newcastle thermal coal was $110.21 per ton, and the price of South African Richards Bay thermal coal was $95.60 per ton [7] Supply - Demand Review - Supply tightened in major production areas due to some coal mines halting or reducing production after completing monthly tasks at the end of July and weather - related disruptions in production or transportation. Non - power demand maintained on - demand procurement at production areas, but downstream power terminals had limited acceptance of the spot price hikes at northern ports [9]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 8 月 3 日 国债期货周报 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 yukan@gtht.com 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 所 ◼ 反内卷进入新阶段，商品回落，国债期货回暖，曲线阶段性转平。 ◼ 财政部、税务总局发布关于国债等债券利息收入增值税政策的公告，自 2025 年 8 月 8 日起，对 在该日期之后（含当日）新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值 税。对在该日期之前已发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券(包含在 2025 年 8 月 8 日之后续发 行的部分）的利息收入，继续免征增值税直至债券到期。 ◼ 仍然维持下半年大方向看震荡偏空的观点。但短期需要关注国债以及政金债收税后对于新老债 券、跨期价差以及市场风险偏好的影响。 期货研究 （正文） 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 国债期货合约周度回暖，曲线阶段性走平。 图 1：活跃合约走势 图 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - This week, the fundamentals of offset printing paper remain weak, and paper prices continue to decline. Looking ahead, in the context of supply - demand contradictions, market transactions will be more flexible, and paper prices are expected to continue to fall next week [49][50] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - This Thursday, the inventory days of domestic double - coated paper decreased by 1.31% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate this week narrowed by 0.83 percentage points month - on - month. Some dealers have a bearish outlook and weak stocking willingness, slowing down the inventory reduction rhythm of paper mills [6] - This week, the operating load rate of domestic double - coated paper was 50.13%, remaining flat month - on - month, and the trend changed from rising to stable. The production enthusiasm of double - coated paper manufacturers changed little, and the industry operation was basically stable [6] - In June 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 1.87% month - on - month and 27.23% compared with June 2024. Inventory in ports of the Netherlands, Belgium, France, and Switzerland decreased by 4.57% month - on - month, while inventory in ports of the UK, Italy, and Spain increased by 47.71%, 9.69%, and 7.15% respectively month - on - month, and inventory in German ports remained flat [6] Market Trend - As of July 31, the average price of 70g high - white double - coated paper was 4993.75 yuan/ton, the same as yesterday, and decreased by 81.25 yuan/ton compared with last week [9] - In the spot market, the prices of some paper types in Shandong and Guangdong markets decreased. In terms of cost - profit, both pre - tax and after - tax gross profits decreased [10] Supply - Demand Data Industry Capacity - The industry capacity is continuously being put into production, and the current industry as a whole is in a state of over - supply. In 2024, the domestic double - coated paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57% [15][19] Weekly Production and Capacity Utilization - This week, the domestic double - coated paper industry output was 168,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 50.1% [24] Weekly Sales and Inventory - This week, the domestic double - coated paper industry sales volume was 173,100 tons, and the enterprise inventory was 346,700 tons [29] Import and Export - In June, the domestic double - coated paper import volume was about 15,000 tons, and the export volume was about 66,000 tons [35] Inventory Situation - In terms of inventory days, Central China > East China > South China; the social inventory pressure is higher than the enterprise inventory [41] Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [46] Market Judgment - Supply: This week, the domestic double - coated paper industry output was 168,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 50.1%. In June, the import volume was about 15,000 tons, continuing the previous low - import volume [50] - Demand: This week, the domestic double - coated paper sales volume was 173,100 tons. In June, the export volume was about 66,000 tons [50] - Price: This week, the average market price of 70g wood - pulp high - white double - coated paper was 4,998 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.90%, and the decline rate this week widened by 1.80 percentage points month - on - month. The average market price of 70g wood - pulp natural - white double - coated paper was 4,646 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19%, and the decline rate this week widened by 1.06 percentage points month - on - month [50] - Factors Affecting Price: Some areas' publishing orders are not fully picked up, paper mills prioritize inventory reduction; dealers are cautious and have weak stocking willingness; downstream printing factories mainly consume inventory, and overall market demand is average; the cost support for double - coated paper is limited [50] - Future Outlook: Next week is the window period for paper mills to adjust quotes. It is expected that under the drive of relevant "anti - involution" policies, the quotes of large - scale paper mills will mostly remain stable. However, from the perspective of fundamentals, there are no new shutdown plans in the market next week, and it is expected that the supply side will change little. As publishing order pick - up ends, the demand side's support for paper prices will weaken. It is expected that due to supply - demand contradictions, market transactions will be more flexible, and paper prices will continue to decline next week [50] - Valuation: Based on the current pulp price, the current pre - tax gross profit of double - coated paper is about - 56 yuan/ton, and the after - tax gross profit is about - 222 yuan/ton. Although the pulp price has been falling, as the peak consumption season ends, the fundamentals of paper have weakened, and the profit of paper mills has declined [50]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 8 月 3 日 棉花：注意外部市场情绪影响 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 截至 8 月 1 日当周，ICE 棉花下跌，美棉新作生长状况仍然良好，美棉出口销售数据一般，美国和其 他纺织国的贸易谈判并没有出现明显的利好美棉出口的消息，ICE 棉花仍然缺乏来自基本面的助力，在美 元持续走强的影响下，ICE 棉花下跌。 国内棉花期货本周下跌超过 4%，对 9 月可能将面临较多的"低性价比"的仓单交割的担忧，导致资金 从 9 月合约向后续合约移仓，另外金融市场的整体情绪降温，进一步加剧了郑棉期货的下行压力，CF9-1 价差回落到-200 附近。郑棉期货基本回到 6 月底以来这波上涨开始的位置，CF9-1 价差也到了比较低的 水平，再加上下游需求总体还是稳定，国内旧作棉花在 8、9 月的库存偏紧的预期仍然存在，所以从基本 面来说，郑棉期货的调整阶段性到位。不过，整体金融市场的调整风险依然存在，所以，预计郑棉期货不 会立马反弹上涨，需要先等待整体金融市场情绪稳定。暂时预计郑棉期货将在 13600 附近震荡，注意政策 动向和下游实际 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, both internal and external environments changed. Internally, the "anti - involution" theme cooled, and the Politburo meeting emphasized policy implementation. Upstream resources retreated, with coal and non - ferrous metals leading the decline. Externally, the third round of China - US trade talks extended tariffs, the US dollar index rose, and the domestic risk appetite declined slightly. The Fed remained unchanged but had increasing differences on interest rate cuts. Financing funds flowed in rapidly but sentiment weakened later. Indexes retreated, with large - cap stocks falling more. IF, IC, and IM basis widened slightly, while IH was flat. The term structure adjusted in the opposite direction during the callback [2] 3. Summary by Related Content This Week's Review - Internal changes: The "anti - involution" theme cooled, the Politburo meeting emphasized policy implementation, and upstream resources retreated [2] - External changes: The third round of China - US trade talks extended tariffs, the US dollar index rose, and the domestic risk appetite declined slightly. The Fed had increasing differences on interest rate cuts [2] - Market performance: Financing funds flowed in rapidly but sentiment weakened later. Indexes retreated, with large - cap stocks falling more. IF, IC, and IM basis widened slightly, while IH was flat. The term structure adjusted in the opposite direction during the callback [2] This Week's Prediction Conclusion - The model predicts that next week, the basis of IH and IM will weaken, while the basis of IF and IC will strengthen [3] Recent Prediction Conclusion - There are graphical data on the real and predicted basis changes of IH, IF, IC, and IM, but specific conclusions are not explicitly summarized from the graphical content [4][5]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-08-01 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-08-01 所长 早读 中国 7 月官方制造业 PMI 回落至 49.3 观点分享： 7 月 31 日，国家统计局公布数据显示，7 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.3%， 比上月下降 0.4 个百分点，非制造业商务活动指数为 50.1%，比上月下降 0.4 个百分点。在 构成制造业 PMI 的 5 个分类指数中，生产指数为 50.5%，比上月下降 0.5 个百分点，仍高于 临界点，表明制造业生产延续扩张。新订单指数为 49.4%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点，表明 制造业市场需求有所放缓。尽管 7 月政治局会议指向短期将更注重抓落实而非强刺激、即所 谓"托而不举"，但基于 7 月制造业 PMI 连续第四个月处于收缩区间且弱于季节性，若形势 恶化，亦不排除快速出台增量政策的可能。关注即将公布的 7 月财新 PMI，密切关注中美贸 易谈判进展情况。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 鸡蛋 | ★★★★ | 存栏维持增势，短期情绪偏弱。7 月以 ...

2025 年 8 月 1 日 股指期货将震荡整理 白银、原油期货将偏弱震荡 螺纹钢、 热卷板、铁矿石期货将偏强震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2509 阻力位 4087 和 4126 点，支撑位 4027 和 4001 点；IH2509 阻力位 2800 和 2812 点，支撑位 2762 和 2755 点；IC2509 阻力位 6173 和 6230 点，支撑位 6055 和 6003 点；IM2509 阻力位 6590 和 6640 点 ...