商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 23 日 焦炭：区间震荡 焦煤：区间震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | JM2605 | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1131.5 | 2.5 | 0. 2% | | 期货价格 | | 12605 | 1 688 | 4.5 | 0. 3% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 736188 | 521061 | 5617 | | | | J2605 | 12490 | 38116 | -242 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1640 1426 | 1640 1426 | 0 | | | | | | | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1243 | 1243 | 0 | ...

2026 年 01 月 23 日 棕榈油：多重因素影响，短期震荡偏强 豆油：美豆题材不足，油粕比回升 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,944 | 涨跌幅 1.27% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,914 | 涨跌幅 -0.34% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,084 | 0.50% | 8,084 | 0.00% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,002 | 0.61% | 8,966 | -0.40% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,198 | 1.06% | 4,178 | -0.45% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 53.74 | -0.50% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 502,993 | 15880 | 467,244 | 21,301 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 262,334 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is rated as "1", which means it is "strong" in the range of [-2, 2], indicating a relatively bullish view [3] Core View of the Report - In the short term, with the macro - narrative of incremental funds overweighting the chemical sector, butadiene and butadiene rubber are expected to run strongly. The reasons are that the overall synthetic rubber industry chain has neutral spot trading volume, maintaining high apparent demand, and butadiene's strong short - term fundamentals push up the cost of synthetic rubber [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking Futures Market - For the butadiene rubber main contract (03 contract), the daily closing price increased from 11,915 yuan/ton to 12,270 yuan/ton, a rise of 355 yuan/ton; the trading volume increased from 128,058 lots to 182,757 lots, an increase of 54,699 lots; the open interest increased from 93,726 lots to 96,682 lots, a rise of 2,956 lots; the trading volume increased from 750,670 ten - thousand yuan to 1,104,674 ten - thousand yuan, a rise of 354,004 ten - thousand yuan [1] Spread Data - The basis of Shandong butadiene rubber - futures main contract decreased from - 265 to - 420, a drop of 155; the monthly spread of BR02 - BR05 (private) decreased from - 100 to - 110, a drop of 10 [1] Spot Market - The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, South China, Shandong, and the prices of butadiene styrene rubber (Qilu 1502, Qilu 1712), and butadiene (Jiangsu mainstream, Shandong mainstream) all increased. For example, the price of North China butadiene rubber increased from 11,300 yuan/ton to 11,550 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Indicators - The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 74.599%. The theoretical full - cost of butadiene rubber increased from 12,388 yuan/ton to 12,697 yuan/ton, a rise of 309 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased from - 687 yuan/ton to - 697 yuan/ton, a drop of 10 yuan/ton [1] 2. Industry News - As of January 21, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 35,400 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.32%. The inventory of some sample producers increased, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] - On January 21, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 34,500 tons, a significant decrease of 10,100 tons compared with the previous period, mainly due to limited arrival of imported ships and high operating rates of major downstream industries [2][3]

【基本面跟踪】 2026 年 01 月 23 日 品 研 究 工业硅：上游减产，震荡偏强 多晶硅：注册仓单增加 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,825 | 45 | 95 | 135 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 230,130 | -50,445 | -5,712 | -85,196 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 228,488 | 4,801 | -2,232 | 18,615 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 50,515 | 815 | 1,845 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 10,922 | -4,562 | -1,781 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 43,318 | -602 | -4,48 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of caustic soda has been continuously declining due to cost reduction, supply - demand collapse, and high inventory. The near - term contracts (02 and 03) face significant delivery pressure, and the downward price trend is difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival. However, the far - term contracts (04, 05 and later) may face a situation of cost increase and expected supply reduction, so short - selling these contracts should be done with caution [2]. - The trend strength of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 03 contract futures price is 1948. The cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong is 615, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 1922, and the basis is - 26 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The price of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market continues to decline. Some orders are negotiated on a case - by - case basis. The unloading of two major alumina downstream customers is continuously difficult, making it hard for caustic soda plants to reduce inventory. Although there is some procurement from alumina producers outside the province, the impact is limited [2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - On the demand side, the oversupply situation of alumina has not changed in the short term. The expectation of production cuts suppresses the hoarding of caustic soda, and non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand and export pressure, so overall demand lacks support. - On the supply side, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. Without losses reaching the cash - flow cost, manufacturers are unlikely to significantly reduce production. - In general, the high inventory of caustic soda makes it difficult to reverse the downward price trend before the Spring Festival. However, the short - term strong pattern of liquid chlorine may not be sustainable after April, so the far - term contracts may face a situation of cost increase and expected supply reduction [2].

陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 23 日 LPG：内外盘共振上扬 丙烯：现货维持紧平衡 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG | 2602 2603 | 4,199 4,134 | 0.91% 1.60% | 4,236 4,169 | 0.88% 0.85% | PG | 2602 2603 | 3,875 70,113 | -808 27,098 | 4,362 87,096 | -1,769 -1,004 | | 期货市场 | | 2604 | 4,398 | 1.20% | 4,444 | 1.05% | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The risk preference of LLDPE continues to spill over, and the basis weakens significantly. The futures price strengthens, the upstream inventory is transferred, the enterprise quotation stabilizes and rebounds, the mid - stream order placement improves, but the basis weakens. The downstream product profit is compressed, resisting high prices. The external quotation rises, and the long - term import profit is opened. The raw material end oil price strengthens, the ethylene monomer weakens, and the PE process profit is repaired. The supply side has new capacity trial - production and the maintenance plan decreases, and there is supply - demand pressure in the medium term[1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 is 6814, with a daily increase of 2.22%. The trading volume is 567,632, and the position changes by 11,162[1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of the 05 contract is - 164 (previous day: - 146), and the 05 - 09 contract spread is - 31 (previous day: - 28)[1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot price in North China is 6650 yuan/ton (previous day: 6520), in East China is 6700 yuan/ton (previous day: 6650), and in South China is 6750 yuan/ton (previous day: 6700)[1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures price strengthens, the upstream inventory is transferred, the enterprise quotation stabilizes and rebounds, and the mid - stream order placement improves again. The production of standard products continues to rise, the trading volume weakens significantly, and the basis weakens sharply. The downstream product profit is compressed and resists high prices. The external quotation rises, the LL supply is scarce, the long - term import profit is opened, and the importer's trading volume increases. The downstream factories are mostly cautious and wait - and - see. Geopolitical intensification may support the US dollar market to run strongly[1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material end oil price strengthens, the Middle East geopolitical risk is not released, the ethylene monomer link weakens, and the PE ethylene and ethane process profits are repaired. The PE futures market continues to rebound, the trading volume is mostly concentrated in the mid - stream, and the downstream has not chased the rising price to replenish goods. The downstream agricultural film is weakening, the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand, but after the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold goods weakens. The upstream offers discounts to sell goods at the end of the year, the factory inventory decreases slightly, and the basis is weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually in trial - production, the maintenance plan in January decreases month - on - month, some FD switches back to standard products, and the supply - demand pressure brought by high inventory capacity and weakening demand in the medium term still needs to be concerned[2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is - 1[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 23, 2026, and the trend of futures main (continuous) contracts in January 2026 [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News and Trading Tips - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. It will also maintain the stability of the financial market and support the capital market [5]. - The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal funds has been allocated, which will drive total investment of over 460 billion yuan [5]. - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on January 23, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan [5]. - Six major state - owned banks will implement the fiscal discount policy for personal consumer loans, and the actual interest rate for some high - quality customers can enter the "2%" range [6]. - China will conduct a pilot program to extend the second - round land contracts by 30 years on a provincial - wide basis this year [6]. - From January 1, 2026, a project to provide pension service consumption subsidies to moderately and severely disabled elderly people will be implemented nationwide [6]. - The 2026 national college entrance examination will be held on June 7 and 8, and efforts will be made to optimize the discipline and major settings [6]. - In December 2025, the unemployment rates of the urban labor force aged 16 - 24, 25 - 29, and 30 - 59 were 16.5%, 6.9%, and 3.9% respectively [7]. - The US 2025 Q3 GDP final annualized quarterly growth was 4.4%, and the core PCE price index in November met expectations. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 200,000, lower than expected [7]. - Goldman Sachs significantly raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4,900/oz to $5,400/oz [7]. - International precious metal futures generally rose, while US crude oil futures fell. London base metals generally rose [7][8]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On January 22, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures had different performances. The short - term downward pressure of IF2603 and IH2603 increased slightly, while IC2603 and IM2603 showed a slight upward trend [9][10][11]. - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contracts of stock index futures will be mostly in a strong or moderately strong oscillation. On January 23, the stock index futures will be in a strong oscillation [13]. Gold Futures - On January 22, the main contract AU2604 of gold futures had a slight downward oscillation. The short - term upward momentum weakened, and the downward pressure increased slightly [29]. - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract of gold futures will be in a moderately strong oscillation and will reach a record high. On January 23, AU2604 will be in a strong oscillation and may reach a new high [29][30]. Silver Futures - On January 22, the main contract AG2604 of silver futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation and reach a new high. On January 23, AG2604 will be in a moderately strong oscillation and may reach a new high [33][34]. Copper Futures - On January 21, the main contract CU2603 of copper futures had a slight downward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation and reach a new high. On January 22, CU2603 will be in a weak oscillation [39]. Tin Futures - On January 22, the main contract SN2603 of tin futures had a downward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation and reach a new high. On January 23, SN2603 will be in a strong oscillation [42]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On January 22, the main contract LC2605 of lithium carbonate futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, its main continuous contract will be in a moderately strong oscillation. On January 23, LC2605 will be in a wide - range strong oscillation [48][49]. Coking Coal Futures - On January 22, the main contract JM2605 of coking coal futures had a slight upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, it will be in a wide - range oscillation. On January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [51]. Glass Futures - On January 22, the main contract FG605 of glass futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, it will be in a wide - range weak oscillation. On January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [57][58]. Soda Ash Futures - On January 22, the main contract SA605 of soda ash futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that in January 2026, it will be in a wide - range weak oscillation. On January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [62]. PTA Futures - On January 22, the main contract TA605 of PTA futures showed a strong upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [68]. PVC Futures - On January 22, the main contract V2605 of PVC futures showed a strong upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [70]. Methanol Futures - On January 22, the main contract MA605 of methanol futures showed a strong upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a strong oscillation [71]. Soybean Meal Futures - On January 22, the main contract M2605 of soybean meal futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a weak oscillation [73]. Natural Rubber Futures - On January 22, the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber futures showed an upward oscillation. It is expected that on January 23, it will be in a moderately strong oscillation [76].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 23 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 100 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,083.56 | -0.49% | #N/A | #N/A | | | 黄金T+D | 1,083.92 | -0.19% | #N/A | #N/A | | | Comex黄金2602 | 4938.40 | 2.11% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 23370 | 0.82% | #N/A | #N/A | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 23366 | 0.60% | #N/A | #N/A | | | Comex白银2602 | 96.215 | 3.51% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - ...

2026年01月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 3 | | 铜：风险情绪上升，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：具备向上弹性 | 7 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：交易重心上移 | 13 | | 钯：跟随上行 | 13 | | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 15 | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：去库格局延续，偏强震荡 | 17 | | 工业硅：上游减产，震荡偏强 | 19 | | 多晶硅：注册仓单增加 | 19 | | 铁矿石：价格走弱，关注下游补库节奏 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：原料价格微调，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：区间震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤：区间震荡 ...