【基本面跟踪】 铅：供需双增，价格震荡 2025 年 10 月 13 日 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17140 | 0.15% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2014.5 | -0.30% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 36308 | -3891 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 13567 | 2032 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 44795 | 3718 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 146568 | -1049 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -10 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -38.22 | -6.22 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨 ...

2025 年 10 月 13 日 锡：关注宏观影响 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 1、 中中国商务部：中方依法对稀土等物项出口管制，不是禁止出口；希望美方正视自身错误，与中 方相向而行，回到对话协商的正确轨道上来。 2、 高通公司涉嫌违反反垄断法，市场监管总局依法决定立案调查，称相关事实清楚、证据确凿，将 继续推进相关调查工作。 3、 报道：美联储主席候选人名单缩小至五人，贝莱德高管 Rieder 令贝森特"印象深刻"。美联储理 事沃勒：就业市场是最大担忧，对降息 25 基点持开放态度。 4、 美国现代史上首次，白宫"管家"宣布特朗普政府开始永久性裁员。 5、 美国 9 月 CPI 报告发布时间定于 10 月 24 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 13 日 PP：趋势仍偏弱 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2601 | 6722 | -0.41% | 251,636 | 11295 | | 价 差 | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 01合约基差 | | -142 | -125 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | | -40 | -40 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6540 - | 6650 | 6540 - | 6620 | | | 华东 | 6580 - | 6700 | 6620 - | 6750 | | | 华南 | 6550 - | 6700 | 6600 - | 6750 | 资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 国内 PP 市场继续弱 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 13 日 铁矿石：宏观风偏下挫，估值承压 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 795.0 | 4.5 | 0.57% | | | I 2601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 476. 191 | 16.626 | | | | 卡粉 (65%) | 昨日价格(元/吨) 924. 0 | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 进口矿 | | | 923. 0 | 1.0 | | | | PB (61.5%) | 790. 0 | 788. 0 | 2. 0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴(61%) | 760. 0 | 758. 0 | 2. 0 | | | | 超特 (56.5%) | 716. 0 | 716. 0 | 0. 0 | | | 国产矿 | ...

2025 年 10 月 13 日 焦炭：宏观预期反复，弱势震荡 焦煤：宏观预期反复，弱势震荡 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2601 | 1161 | -3 | -0. 3% | | 期货价格 | | J2601 | 1666. 5 | 12.5 | 0. 8% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2601 | 700936 | 596453 | 27482 | | | | J2601 | 16954 | 41385 | -499 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1530 | 1530 | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 1285 | 1285 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主集 | 1550 | 1550 | 0 | | 现货价格 | | 峰景折人民币 | 0 | 1650 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View - The spot price of live pigs has not reached the bottom, and attention should be paid to the basis convergence market [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Henan spot price is 11,130 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan spot price is 10,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton year - on - year; Guangdong spot price is 11,560 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton year - on - year. For futures, the price of live pig 2511 is 11,320 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan/ton year - on - year; live pig 2601 is 12,140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year; live pig 2603 is 11,960 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live pig 2511 is 57,873 lots, an increase of 6,946 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest is 60,392 lots, an increase of 2,056 lots compared with the previous day. The trading volume of live pig 2601 is 40,663 lots, a decrease of 53 lots, and the open interest is 88,892 lots, an increase of 4,102 lots. The trading volume of live pig 2603 is 15,122 lots, a decrease of 1,137 lots, and the open interest is 63,618 lots, an increase of 6,069 lots [2]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of live pig 2511 is - 190 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of live pig 2601 is - 1,010 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of live pig 2603 is - 830 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton year - on - year. The spread between live pig 11 - 1 is - 820 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between live pig 1 - 3 is 180 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 2, indicating the most bearish view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3].

2025 年 10 月 13 日 白糖：重视系统性风险 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.1 | -0.15 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 27 | -9 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5840 | 0 | 59 价差（元/吨） | -3 | -6 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5496 | -32 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 344 | 32 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：美股、原油大跌，黄金、白银上涨，避险氛围增强，重视系统系风险。继"桦加沙"之后，台 风"麦德姆"再次影响广东和广西，同时广西产区发生洪水。巴西 9 月上半月食糖产量同比大幅增加 16%。 截至 9 月 30 日，印度季风降水量较 LPA 高 7.9%。巴西出口下降，引发对于全球消费的担忧。巴西 9 月出口 325 万吨，同比减少 16% ...

期指：忧虑暂缓，回归基本面 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 13 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4616.83 | ↓1.97 | | 7927.4 | | | | | | IF2510 | 4613.8 | ↓2.08 | -3.03 | 611.6 | 43832 | ↑3683 | 51030 | ↓3181 | | IF2511 | 4600.4 | ↓2.19 | -16.43 | 75.5 | 5422 | ↑734 | 9132 | ↑1427 | | IF2512 | 4592.2 | ↓2.18 | -24.63 | 1336.5 | 96227 | ↑17523 | 162971 | ↓329 | | IF2603 | ...

2025 年 10 月 13 日 短纤：预期驱动下跌，加工费高位震荡 瓶片：预期驱动下跌，加工费高位震荡 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2511 | 6200 | 6292 | -92 | PF11-12 | 38 | 60 | -22 | | PF | 短纤2512 | 6162 | 6232 | -70 | PF12-01 | -52 | -52 | 0 | | | 短纤2601 | 6214 | 6284 | -70 | PF主力基美 | 203 | 138 | ર્ રે | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 183370 | 185616 | -2246 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 365 | 6. 370 | -5 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoint - The expectation of tariff escalation suppresses demand, and lithium prices may face pressure [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 72,740 yuan, down 600 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 294,783 lots, down 66,310 lots; the open interest was 221,919 lots, down 7,103 lots. The closing price of the 2601 contract was 72,900 yuan, down 540 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 108,403 lots, down 26,276 lots; the open interest was 191,709 lots, up 8,305 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 42,669 lots, up 290 lots from T - 1 [1] - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2511 was 810 yuan, up 600 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2601 was 650 yuan, up 540 yuan; the basis of 2511 - 2601 was - 160 yuan, down 60 yuan [1] - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 839 yuan, down 4 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,810 yuan, down 25 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan, unchanged from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,300 yuan, unchanged [1] Macro and Industry News - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,453 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Mining Rights**: Zangge Mining's subsidiary received the "Real Estate Certificate (Mining Right)" and "Mining License" for the Chaerhan Salt Lake Potash and Magnesium Mine, with an area of 724.3493 square kilometers and mining depths from 2680 meters to 2658 meters. The main ore is potash salt, and associated ores include salt, magnesium salt, lithium ore, and boron ore [3] - **Lithium Purchase Delay**: Ford postponed its plan to purchase lithium from Liontown and cancelled the plan to apply for electric vehicle tax credits. Due to the decline in electric vehicle sales, Ford will not obtain any lithium resources from Liontown's Kathleen Valley project in 2027 and 2028, and the future delivery volume will be halved to 256,250 tons [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [3]